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Can You|How Will You} Get nowa strona bet at home?|{Purchasing|Buying|Acquiring|Getting} nowa strona bet at home|{What Is|What's} {So|Therefore} {Fascinating|Interesting|Exciting|Amazing} About nowa strona bet at home?|Top nowa strona bet at home Choices|Finding nowa strona bet at home|nowa strona bet at home : {The Ultimate|The Best|The Greatest} Convenience!|nowa strona bet at home Features|{The Basic|The Fundamental|The Essential} Of nowa strona bet at home|nowa strona bet at home {Ideas|A few ideas|Some ideas}|{Characteristics|Faculties|Traits|Features} Of nowa strona bet at home|{How To Find|How To Locate|Where To Find} nowa strona bet at home {Online|On the web|On line}|The {Appeal Of|Benefit Of|Selling Point Of} nowa strona bet at home|The Hidden {Gem|Treasure} Of nowa strona bet at home|{The Meaning|This Is} Of nowa strona bet at home|Top {Tips|Guidelines|Recommendations|Methods|Ideas} Of nowa strona bet at home|Top nowa strona bet at home Secrets|nowa strona bet at home {Can 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Most of this information is copied from the link on the sidebar. Post your thoughts on these places if you use them, I will try to update.
Betting sites for Items/Keys
Dota2Lounge: By far the biggest and most successful Dota 2 betting site. May not have all the matches played on that day. Max bet: ~260 value.
Gosubet: Allows you to bet a high number of rares and keys for selected bets. 1% interest charged for returns over 100 kept in bots inventory without claiming. Max bet: 50 keys? (~150 value)
Dota2Wage: Alternative to D2L, less bots. May not have all the matches played on that day. Apparent issues with value. Max bet: ???
Dota2BestYolo: Follows old D2L style with rares and keys. Has more matches than d2l and sometimes has non dota bets. Apparent issues with value. Max bet: 4keys (~12 value)
Dota2WP: Slow servers, but good odds due to less people betting. Can bet on first bloods as well as final result, and most importantly bet Dota items/value on Football matches. Max bet: ???
Bet365: I always see this site for betting on UFC but it now offers betting for Dota 2.
Egamingbets: Confirm that Skrill works in your country though, because its the only way most people can cash out (tailored toward Russian customers). More skewed odds than D2L.
Roshpit: There's a few threads about Roshpit. Here, here, and here. You can bet using BC, or their gold and silver currencies.
Nitrogen Sports: Similar to Roshpit, but its more diverse than just Dota.
Virtual Betting sites
Proxy.gg: Bet 'bread', can redeem for gifts on the website. Previously nerdbet. You can sign in with your twitch account.
joinDOTA: Can bet for no items, just 'cheese' with a monthly leaderboard.
Gosubet: You can bet branches instead of rares/keys.
Needs verification
VPGame: Can bet mythicals, legendaries, but you may not get the items you bet with (they are replaced with items of same rarity). Apparently for BO2s if it's a tie the site takes your items and you don't get returns.
Dota2Lounge: By far the biggest Dota 2 betting site for items. May not have all the matches played on that day especially for amateur teams.
Dota2Wage: Alternative to D2L, usually has all the matches D2L has if you want to double down. Odds tend to be a bit more skewed due to smaller community.
Dota2BestYolo: Allows betting a high about of low value items. Usually has more matches that D2L especially for amateur leagues like jDL. Also has football (soccer) matches. Again odds tend to be a bit more skewed due to smaller community.
VPGame: Formerly Chinese betting place, but now with English support. There are also handicaps to help from bets getting too skewed. Additionally, item returns are capped so there is less loss due to trash items. Has basketball and football (soccer) matches as well.
Bet365: Offers betting options on a multitude of sports and eSports, Dota included.
Egamingbets: Confirm that Skrill works in your country though, because it’s the only way most people can cash out (tailored toward Russian customers). More skewed odds than D2L.
Roshpit: There are a few threads about Roshpit. Here, here, and here. You can bet using BC, or their gold and silver currencies.
Nitrogen Sports: Similar to Roshpit, but its more diverse than just Dota with many other sports. Allows betting up to 5 BTC per match.
Virtual Betting sites:
Proxy.gg: Bet 'bread', can redeem for gifts on the website. Previously nerdbet. You can sign in with your twitch account.
JoinDOTA: You can place cheese on winner and it has leaderboards every month.
Gosubet: You start with 50 branches and work your way up. You can reset to 50 branches anytime you lose everything. There are also monthly leaderboards and branches won can be carried over to next month for a head start.
Needs Verification:
Dota2SP: Essentially Chinese D2L. No translation yet.
Just in time for the Season 4 World Championship another big brand in the online betting sector has entered the League of Legends betting market: Bet-at-Home The company is following Pinnacle Sports and Bet365 which are offering lines for LoL for quit some time now. At the moment Bet at Home is offering only match bets but a representative told esports-betting.pro that they will expand the esports sportsbook if the current lines are well received by the users. If you want to find out more, you can check the Bet at Home eSport Review on esports-betting.pro
Hey guys I made this list with feedback from people at /dota2loungebets over the course of 11 months and thought you guys would be interested as well. I would also appreciate it if you could give me feedback so I can expand this list. Please check with local laws as gambling for real money is illegal in many areas
Item Betting Sites:
Dota2Lounge: By far the biggest Dota 2 betting site for items. May not have all the matches played on that day especially for amateur teams.
Dota2Wage: Alternative to D2L, usually has all the matches D2L has if you want to double down. Odds tend to be a bit more skewed due to smaller community.
Dota2BestYolo: Allows betting a high about of low value items. Usually has more matches that D2L especially for amateur leagues like jDL. Also has football (soccer) matches. Again odds tend to be a bit more skewed due to smaller community.
VPGame: Formerly Chinese betting place, but now with English support. There are also handicaps to help from bets getting too skewed. Additionally, item returns are capped so there is less loss due to trash items. Has basketball and football (soccer) matches as well.
Bet365: Offers betting options on a multitude of sports and eSports, Dota included.
Egamingbets: Confirm that Skrill works in your country though, because it’s the only way most people can cash out (tailored toward Russian customers). More skewed odds than D2L.
Roshpit: There are a few threads about Roshpit. Here, here, and here. You can bet using BC, or their gold and silver currencies.
Nitrogen Sports: Similar to Roshpit, but its more diverse than just Dota with many other sports. Allows betting up to 5 BTC per match.
Virtual Betting sites:
Proxy.gg: Bet 'bread', can redeem for gifts on the website. Previously nerdbet. You can sign in with your twitch account.
JoinDOTA: You can place cheese on winner and it has leaderboards every month.
Gosubet: You start with 50 branches and work your way up. You can reset to 50 branches anytime you lose everything. There are also monthly leaderboards and branches won can be carried over to next month for a head start.
Needs Verification:
Dota2SP: Essentially Chinese D2L. No translation yet.
Megathread: Joseph R. Biden Sworn in as the 46th President of the United States
Joe Biden became the 46th President of the United States on Wednesday, declaring that "democracy has prevailed." He swore the oath of office to take the helm of a deeply divided nation and inheriting a confluence of crises arguably greater than any faced by his predecessors.
In my 28 years of Gaming Experiences... Cyberpunk 2077 is by far the most unbalanced gaming experience I've had to date.
Hi all, I feel like it's time to share my opinions and thoughts after letting this subreddit cooldown for sometime. Around February of last year, I began work on a massive passion project developing https://NETRUNNER2077.net after following this title and being a massive fan of CD Projekt Red from the original Witcher title. When they announced Cyberpunk 2077 would be their next IP I was immensely excited as I'm a huge Cyberpunk genre nerd in all forms from art, movies, anime, philosophies, books, cultural significance and relation, aesthetics and more. So having my all time favorite game company work on a huge open world Cyberpunk "RPG" instantly generated immediate interest. Now where to even begin? Please note, I've yet to purposely "finish" Cyberpunk 2077 in hopes of CD Projekt Red making a strong come back later on in the future, and hopes that they'll eventually release a REDKit for modders in order to create some incredible work and help flesh the game world out. I have put around close to 200 hours into Cyberpunk 2077 exploring the different Life Paths and their effects on the world. Lots of walking, No fast travel and tons of time lost in an attempt to "Immerse" myself in the experience. I refused to finish Cyberpunk 2077's Main Story for several reasons. The largest being I'm typically against playing titles that are obviously not complete. On top of that, I've invested so much time and effort into researching, designing, learning web design and working towards building an awesome platform in order to properly cover Cyberpunk 2077 with a safe bet of thinking "This couldn't possibly be bad" only to coming around to reality very shortly after and that this title truly needed ATLEAST another year of development time. There are aspects of Cyberpunk 2077 that are, in my opinion, worthy of putting it in the all time legendary category of games. Then.. other parts that make games from even 20 years ago look superior. It's a very "unbalanced" experience. So much that it takes the top spot for me personally. My experience of Cyberpunk 2077 is that it feels unfinished and some what rushed in many areas, if that isn't obvious enough already. But the thing is, as many of you probably already know, it just isn't bugs. Features, Content, Weapons, Immersive Elements, AI, RPG Elements and Game Design Systems are flat out missing or just straight up broken entirely. Here are just a few of the elements that I have a problem with personally..
Weapon Balance - Many weapons are straight up overpowered and unbalanced and easy to find early in the game.
Weapon Variety - CD Projekt Red claimed that the game would have a large variety of weapons - this ended up not being the case with a few showcased weapons not implemented in the game itself although they exist in the game files. Also to note most "Iconic" weapons are just a reskin.
Cyberware Balance & Variety - Same thing as above can also account for Cyberware. Outside of Cyber Arm implants, which has its own bulletin
Very Hard Difficulty - Feels like a joke when compared to a lot titles out there. This is coming from someone who chose Style over Substance in all three playthroughs, typically never using a Jacket, Helmet or Mask. I'm no means great at games. This doesn't help with the extremely bugged out AI.
Perk Balance and Design - All around, most perks feel unrewarding and feel vastly unbalanced, once again making it pretty easy to feel overpowered pretty quickly early on, especially if you end up going down the Quickhacking Sub Skill Tree.
Pedestrian, Water and Car Damage Physics / Collision needs a serious second look - Water as of Patch 1.1 is still a pretty much nothing more than a transparent texture.. fire a bullet, a person, hell.. a fucking car and there is not a single pinch of reaction from that what so ever. The collision from bullets, other cars, people and objects is just bad for a 2020 game.
UI - I'm usually not one to complain about an unintuitive UI but it's quite clunky that takes some time to get around and use to.
Artificial Intelligence - It's either extremely bugged or just barely there. It's very bare bones in EVERY NON SCRIPTED aspect of the game. This has already been covered a thousand times so there's no need to go deep into detail with this. Vehicles, Police, Pedestrians, Etc.
Lack of Immersive Elements - One of CD Projekt Red biggest selling points for many fans was making it sound like there would be many ways to Immerse yourself in Cyberpunk 2077. That is not the case outside of World Design, World Building and Story Telling. It's really hard to actually "Immersive yourself and Roleplay" You can't sit at a bar and grab a drink in real time. You can't grab food anytime you like and eat in real time, the few vendors there are in the game completely rip you out of the game world and into a standard UI vendor menu. Installing Cyberware is just a click of a button in a menu after the initially Eye and hand implant, There's bare minimum interactivity with NPC's or the world itself for that matter, Not a single soul uses an umbrella that I've witnessed when it rains in Night City, There's little to no sense in danger outside of the repetitive Gang hotspots... the list could go on and on with this one.
90% of the choices you make during Cyberpunk 2077 feel like they have little to no consequence - While it's true that there are SOME choices you make in this game change certain outcomes (For the most part - the end of the game as reported by many) It feels like a very bare bones system that doesn't seem fleshed out at all. The majority of the time you're only given the "Illusion of Choice" This was very disappointing to witness. Life path decisions feel utterly meaningless later on down the road.
Side Quests are typically very short when compared to Witcher 3 - On top of that, there are a handful of stunning Side quests but it was very disappointing when a large majority of them lasted around 5-10 minutes at most. If you're looking for another Baron equivalent quest line.. It ain't here chief.
The Main Quest is far too short for a game that attempts to coin itself as being "RPG" - Regardless of not finishing, its pretty obvious that you do a small handful of Main Story Quests (Outside of the Optional ones) and you've reached the end.
Life Paths do not largely impact your overall experience and the way the game and story unfolds - Outside of the VERY beginning of the game, which can roughly take around 10 to 20 minutes to do.. and maybe a single quest depending on your lifepath, They ended up being extremely disappointing. You really aren't missing out on doing multiple life paths as you can basically "choose" your ending at the epilogue of the game and just restart from a save and make a different decision to see different outs. AKA making all the decisions you made throughout the game feel meaningless because in the end, its only what you choose during the epilogue that really matters.
A Second Note on Life Paths and Dialogue Impacting Secondary and Third Playthroughs - Very few side main quests can make a small difference by the end and there is no tension build up for your dialogue options that will lead to consequences that make you afraid of your choices later down the story.
What the hell happened to Meredith Stout? - If you went down the route of siding with Meredith Stout during the Maelstrom Mission and have followed Cyberpunk 2077 for some time you were probably completely thrown off as to how cut off that whole "follow up" went down. Very disappointing.
Dynamic Vehicle Chases / Fights are not a thing and were removed from the game - The one Scav chase in the beginning of the game is scripted.. and that's about it, hell.. you can just sit in the vehicle and watch it crash into the wall without doing a single thing. What the hell? Sorry guys, If you choose to mess with gangs.. they're not going to hunt you down, they aren't going to mow you down while you're in your vehicle. It was all bullshit.
Gangs / Corps will ignore the actions you take against their gang / corp and there are no repercussions for your actions against them at any point in the game - This goes with the one above, but I figured I'd expand on it more. Remember when we thought siding with Maelstrom would cause dire consequences in the long run with Meredith and Militech? Guess what? it definitely isn't a thing. You can go about your business in Night City and not have to worry about that for a split second your entire playthrough, no matter who you decide to fuck over.
Side Gigs are typically just filler content - Very little variety and the only way to really extend your playtime if you choose to not walk the streets of a dead feeling night city attempting to immerse yourself in the world. Which is totally okay if there were also other things to do, but for the most part its just generic Ubisoft tier filler content. There are a very SMALL amount of unique ones with actual dialogue.
Netrunner Enemy Types - The worst they do is upload a low quality damage hack and that's it. Half the time they scan your location and nothing happens. No cool shit like having to tap a button repeatedly to stop you from pulling the trigger on yourself after being hacked.
Pacifica is obviously unfinished - Well, it's not hard to tell that Pacifica wasn't complete after the game came out, I fully know the lore behind what happened to Pacifica, but I don't see how it's acceptable that there are literally unfinished areas from game development.
MAX-TAC and Trauma Team were epic during the early Scav Hideout mission, but that's it - Not much else to say here other than they had some really cool "scripted" events during and after that mission.. but other than that you'll see Trauma Team with their ships in the same exact spots you find them and MAX-TAC basically just spawn in as higher tier cops when your wanted level is high enough.
Cyberpsycho Quest line was a missed opportunity - Quite a disappointing quest after tracking down 17 Cyberpsychos regardless if you choose to let them live or kill them. They could of gone deep into some gritty cyberpunk writing and mystery with this but their approach to this was pretty underwhelming and surface level with no depth other than some logs you find, but this can be said about MANY of the quests during the game.
Collecting Cars is just more checkmark optional filler - Hey? Want another vehicle? Let me flood your quest list and phone letting you know you can GPS right to the location and pick it up. Outside of the few hidden vehicles in the game, Collecting cars was pretty disappointing. You literally walk up to location and buy them, no interactivity with NPC's, just click and buy. Might as well of just given a option to have the vehicle self deliver to the non existent garage where all my other cars reside right?
The Garage outside your Megabuilding serves no purpose and doesn't store your vehicles - Can't find your vehicles there now can you? Yeah..
The 6 Month Montage felt like a giant slap in the face, quite possibly cut missions from early game and is the exact SAME no matter what life path you choose - Going down any life path will grant you the exact same Street Kid themed montage. It really feels like these were cut missions that would of fleshed Jackie Welles as a character out so much better.
Cyberpunk 2077 feels more like a decent "Action Adventure" Game rather than a true "RPG" - Not too hard to see this. While it has RPG elements and Dialogue, it's definitely not on the level of Dues Ex, Vampire Bloodlines, Divinity, Elder Scrolls, Fallout (3 & NV). After you exit the prologue it is all downhill after that.
There isn't much to find and see outside of map markers - While there are a handful of secrets, schematics and weapons it doesn't feel very rewarding when finding these things because of how the weapon, items, currency and game design elements were implemented where things are either easily replaced or you're already easily overpowered as it is.
Cyberpunk tries to be too many things and falls short of most of them - With the Ambitious goals, talk and promises.. The one thing I hoped it would be was a truly Ambitious RPG with some really good Immersive elements. I definitely wasn't expecting the world, but it's just sad as to how many elements it falls flat on.
Black Market Cyberware isn't a thing - You see those four options you have for Cyber arms? Yep, That's it. Nothing else, Everything shown through trailers is what you get.
Brain Dance was a MASSIVE missed opportunity - It's pretty obvious that there was at one time far more to brain dance outside of story missions. Hell, it could of found a way to replace the Gwent Mini Game, but alas - In the end it was used for only story missions and not a single side experience on its own.
Night City just feels like a extremely gorgeous backdrop to a Somewhat Linear story - I've already covered several reasons as to why I feel this way.
It feels more like "Johnny's Story" rather than V's Story - While the writing is indeed excellent most of the time. I personally feel like this story is more about Johnny rather than V.
The sense of urgency after the prologue really makes it hard to "Role Play" V correctly. This conflicts with previous statements made by CDPR "Really wanting players to Role Play the character"- The way this was approached was quite confusing, as CDPR offers this massive world yet having a huge urgency that you need to figure out a solution before you die in a few weeks.
The World does not feel "Alive" by any means.. Lack of Dynamic Events - The world itself just feels pretty dead outside of flying vehicles and ads going off every 4-5 seconds. There is VERY little dynamic content like you see in RDR2 where they put a huge emphasis on the world feeling "alive" and never knowing what could happen.
Customization is severely lacking from a world that begs for more of it - Luckily if you're on PC, a lot of these issues have been solved with customizable Cyber arms, More tattoos, Hair Styles, Face and Neck Cyberware and more. If you're on Console though, you're sadly shit out of luck. The lack of visible Cyberware for V was very surprising. No visible Cyber legs, No visible Netrunning gear outside of "Suits", etc.
Jackie Welles was a brilliant character that was quickly thrown away - Let alone the massive spoiler they decided to showcase via the 2019 E3 CG Trailer, It was extremely disheartening to know that saving Jackie was never an option seeing as we were barely given any time with him and a wasted opportunity for possible great plot points. This could of been remedied by actually going through the missions played out in the 6 month montage. For players unfamiliar following Cyberpunk 2077 for so long, I would assume losing Jackie wasn't near as impactful for them.
Cyberware Arm implants are just alternative weapons for the most part - Which pretty much become useless unless you choose to use Gorilla Fists the whole game. No Utility from them, No useful tool elements, Just weapons that become obsolete very fast.
For a Dystopian World that is hyper sexualized, there sure is a lack of sexual content - Not hard to miss this, You have two Joy Toys and two high end JT's later in the game to choose from in the entirety of Night City outside of the selection of Story related characters you come across. Hell, even a lot of characters that dance on poles in the world are fully clothed. Let alone any real Adult themed clubs.
Trains were a missed opportunity - Let's face it, there were obviously systems in place at one point in development to have an actual train system where you could ride around Night City and be able to enjoy the huge vistas that it offers. Now you can just watch one from a distance disappear right through a building.
Verticality? Sort of..? - Take your Home Megabuilding for example and also prime example of cut areas and content. There were suppose to be several areas of verticality to explore in the world and areas and this is just not the case anymore.
"You'll never run into cool areas where you'll want to get in there but can't" - Yeah, that was definitely not the case now was it? There are several areas you would think would be accessible but just aren't or at any point in the game are.
Acid Rain? Yeah.. No. - Remember this? Yeah I haven't witnessed it either. But hey, at least there's acid fog right?
Then you have this huge dystopic metropolis of a city which looks absolutely phenomenal. I think it'll truly go down in history for its amazing design and the techniques they used to craft this insanely dense city. There's truly nothing like visiting Night City and it surely is a unique experience from a VISUAL and AUDIO design standpoint. The writing is solid most of the time as well. It really just feels like they had a very direct deadline and were forced to wrap systems up after changing the core game several times over and over again which caused loads of bugs in the code. I really hope when I come back to this game in a year it'll be quite different but after what CDPR pulled I find it extremely hard to trust and have faith in them. I had so much faith and love in this company that I ended up spending countless months building, designing, and launching NETRUNNER 2077 almost single handedly but after playing Cyberpunk 2077 for weeks, I couldn't even bring myself to write a review over it. Honestly, I would've been way too critical and harsh. Especially after having to monitor and dissect everything that was "said" to be in the game and how systems were suppose to "work" and it ended up being nothing like that what so ever. At this point and time I have no motivation or confidence to continue the platform due to the recent events and actions of CDPR's upper management as well as the highly manipulative marketing that made Cyberpunk 2077 only a glass half full of what it was intended to actually be. I made sure to set my expectations accordingly from what was told from developers to fans via interviews, deep dives and what was reported to sources that was approved by CDPR. With that and the EXTREMELY misleading marketing, it leaves an extremely sour taste in my mouth. I really want to have faith that they can turn this title around, but something feels off. I understand from a legal perspective that they probably cant at the moment. I just hope one day that this game can truly live up to its potential. There is an incredible foundation set, but it's ultimately up to CD Projekt Red if they choose to deliver their originally intended vision. For other upper management in game development out there possibly reading this- if your game isn't finished, please market it correctly as an "Early Access Game" and not a finished product. That is straight up lying and deceiving fans and consumers out there. It isn't right, and needs to stop.
Not another fairy-tale ending - a word of warning for those entering the crypto scene
For myself, life over the past few years has seemingly gone from bad to worse - and before I go into the details -this isn’t a “pity-post” or a sympathy searching exercise, this is simply a warning, and hopefully a lesson to others who are entering the crypto scene. My crypto journey began back in earnest at the start of that famed 2017 “bull run” – I had a little bit in savings and had done my due diligence – this really was the future, and it could potentially set me and my family up for life. I bought in with every bit of money I had to spare. All told, it was about £6,500, and the price of Bitcoin sat at just under £9,000. This was exciting. The price continued to increase and I religiously opened and closed the Coinbase website to see the price soar by the hundreds and into the thousands. Work took a backseat and I became consumed with the markets, red and green candles being the first and last things I saw in the day. I wanted more. I became envious of those that had bought into cryptos years before. So I looked at alternate avenues to increase my Bitcoin holdings… this was going to be the making of me! Sadly it turned out to be quite the opposite. Scams, Scams everywhere… The first venture I looked into was a third party bitcoin mining platform which promised exponential growth. It sounded too good to be true (spoiler: it was). I used a credit card to buy more Bitcoin. First mistake. I maxed the card and sent around £6,000 in Bitcoin to a mining company known as Crypterra. The reviews were good, the discord was active, people were seeing payouts – it was all looking legitimate. But of course it wasn’t. Payouts dried up. The devs went silent and the site disappeared and re-appeared sporadically before going offline indefinitely. It was over and I had lost most of the £6,000 from my credit card. Robots are the future? The price of Bitcoin was still holding strong and I’d made small gains with my original investment which was still untouched. Perhaps I could increase by Bitcoin gains elsewhere and pay off the credit card I had maxed out. Again, I looked into ways to bolster my Bitcoin reservesI looked into trading platforms, cryptocurrency bots in particular. How hard could it be? As long as the price of Bitcoin went up, it should balance out any losses as I learned the ropes. There were a few that caught my eye. And following what I thought was sage “youtuber” advice – I dove into the world of trading with bots – linking up a Binance account and setting up my automated systems to work their magic and trade whilst I was asleep/working/sitting on the toilet, you name it. As you can imagine, these bots weren’t the holy grail they were promoted to be, and I was losing Bitcoin left, right and centre. I became more and more “experimental” with the strategies… doubling my stakes, tripling my stakes to recoup what I had lost. I didn’t see it as real money (despite paying with hard earned money to fund these accounts) – it was magic internet money, just ones and zeroes – so the reality of it didn’t hit home how much I was actually losing. Shock horror, I lost it all. Taking it to the bookies… I had effectively been gambling my money away, and in my increasingly agitated state I sought out other communities to try and regain my money. Sports-betting communities, gambling communities, Twitter “tipsters” and Facebook groups who had all the inside knowledge. I was down over £12,000 from my savings and the £6,500 from the credit card combined. I decided to open another two credit cards. One to fund my betting account and the other for backup. I quickly went through the first card’s funds, but I was ‘still learning’, this was ‘Ok’ – next time I would get it right. The second card (third in total) was quickly exhausted, and I was now close to £20,000 in the hole from when I started, all within just a few months. The hole grew ever darker As I write this now I am actually afraid and embarrassed to share the total losses I have made over the past few years (it’s actually much worse than I could have ever imagined). I have no-one to blame but myself; the greed, stupidity and at times, pure arrogance have lead me down this path. A path which at the moment seems irreversible for me. To see the price of Bitcoin now makes me feel physically sick – if only I had been patient. If only I hadn’t chased my losses, if only I hadn’t played with money that wasn’t mine - I wouldn’t be in this predicament. As the debt mounts ever higher and interest rates on credit cards are crippling me, it will be an incredibly long time before I have any financial stability again. It has made me mentally unwell and I’m still figuring out the next steps which I know include professional support and removing my head from the pile of sand in which I have buried it. I sincerely hope that those who read this account of my situation don’t fall into the same trap. The world is once again hyped for crypto, and with it come the pitfalls and scams and false promises of financial freedom and becoming rich. Don’t try and cheat the system, don’t chase your losses and don’t use money that isn’t yours in the first place. TLDR: To put it succinctly, the above is a very short overview of the financial hole I have found myself due to greed, arrogance and stupidity over the past few years. Hopefully a warning to others. Don’t chase losses, don’t look for the next get rich scheme and don’t invest money that isn’t yours to start with. Basically, don’t ruin your life like me. If only I had just held. EDIT: A quick edit to say thank you to everyone who has taken the time to read the above and replied in the comments. I've had some very honest and insightful responses and some incredibly useful suggestions about how I can bring myself back from this dilemma. I'll be seeking professional help both for the gambling and the debt management and hopefully get myself on the right track for the sake of my own sanity and that of my family's.
To not flunk out of college, I changed my grades and thousands of others' as well.
When I was a student at a major university in the late 80's, I was failing several classes miserably. I had completely screwed up in 2 of my 6 classes and I needed to make a plan of how not to flunk out. For one class, I decided to dedicate all my spare time in correcting where I went wrong and fix it by acing the final exam. The other class , which was much more technical, required that I come up with a plan. Keep in mind, that I was a total goody-two shoes kid who felt like they were in a desperate situation. Failing out of college was not something I could allow to happen. Desperate times, desperate measures. The class that I needed to pass was a science/engineering class that I had not bothered to go to. So i went to the very last Thursday class to figure out my plan. One thing the professor did say was that if you had a 93 or higher average in the class you could opt out of the final exam that was happening in 1 week. I had a 64 average so I had to take the exam. How was I going to ace this exam? My grades were too low to get pulled up enough. The only way to fix this was to get my grades changed. So I came up with a "Hail Mary" plan. One that involved a few rules to be broken, and by rules, I mean laws. The science building were the class was given would close for the weekend. This meant that the professors' offices were locked and most of the labs were locked as well. You could still get into the main parts of the building but you had to talk to a security person if it was after hours. (There wasn't digital badges and shit like that back then.) So here was my plan. On Friday afternoon after most classes were over, I scoped out the whole building. It was a u-shaped building that was 3 stories tall. I had to find a way in. Luckily, I found one of the 1st floor labs on the inside of the "u" had large horizontal windows that could be unlocked and would allow for someone to crawl through. Even better, one of the labs windows were obscured by a small fenced in area that housed some of the electrical and HVAC units. Large bushes lined the fence as well. So while I was there I went into the lab and unlocked a window to allow myself a place to enter the building. The door of the lab was propped open and I unpropped it and let it close. It locked. Good to know! It also reduced the chances of someone relocking the window. I also scoped out the professor's office. It was open but he was was not there. It was very small with no windows. Just enough room for a desk, his chair and a a couple of other chairs. His office door was an all metal door painted beige except for a small center window in the middle. The window had a wire screen built into the glass held in place by a simple screwed on frame. There were lots of manilla envelopes and schedules etc on the door as well. This would be a challenge but I had formed my plan. At around 3:30 in the morning I arrived back at the building with my backpack and a plan to break into th building. I had a hammer, pliers, a roll of tape and some screwdrivers that I had scrounged and I was nervous as hell. I made way through the bushes and climbed over the fence. I checked the window and it was still unlocked. I pulled myself up through the window and into the dark lab. Remembering that the lab doors would lock behind you, I slowly opened the lab door and placed some tape on the lock to stop it from locking. I was expecting a quiet building but instead was greeted by the loud sound of machinery running. Another lab was conducting an all night test or something and at least 3 upper level students were there overseeing the project. In a way that was good because my presence wouldn't necessarily be noticeable by others. I would find out later that it would also cover any noises I made. I made my way to the professor's office door which was in a more out of the way part of the building. The office was located right by one of the stair wells so I could hear anyone coming down the stairs and also, if someone happened to start coming from the other way I could use the stairs for a quick exit. I pulled out the screw driver to start unscrewing the frame around the glass window in his door and soon realized that the screws were covered in decades of paint. Not good. What I thought was going to be a 2 minute job turned into a 45 minute job. I went into what I would call "Fuck it mode" and just went to town on this window frame. I had a few starts and stops but no one came by. I got the frame off and tried to pry the glass out of the frame. It was sealed in with paint. Getting the glass out took a monumental amount of slow prying and steady effort. After 30 minutes of scraping and gentle pressure I had the glass pane out. I slowly reached in and turned the lock to unlock the door. I grabbed a large manilla folder on the outside of door and repositioned it over the window, a perfect cover for the now mauled up window. I slide into the office and looked for something to cover the window that would block light. The desk calendar worked well and a few pieces of tape held it up well. Then I turned the lights on to survey the scene. I was now presented with a desk a chair and small slim table behind the desk. Of all the ways my plan could go wrong, my biggest fear was that the professor may have taken all of his grades home with him. A quick look into the large flat file on his desk and I had his full hand-written grade register in my hands and the pen he used for recording grades was tucked right inside. He taught 6 classes that semester and I only needed to change one grade, my grade, however, now that I had seen how banged up the paint was on the glass window frame, I knew I had to alter the plan. I searched through the gradebook and found all of my grades and saw I had several in the 70s and some lower 60's grades. I had done SOME work in the class. I thought it over for a few seconds and started executing Plan B. I went through every single class he had and began randomly changing anything in the 60's to read as in the 80s. Then I went through and change all the 70's I found to read as 90s. I realized that the changed grades wouldn't stand up under close scrutiny so I had to create a "herd immunity' of changed grades. I noticed a few bad students in some of his classes and made some extra efforts at changing their grades. A zero? Now an 88. This was taking awhile. With 6 classes and 50 students or so in each class, and about 10 grades per student, there was about 3000 grades in this register. I changed at least 1500 of those grades. Of course my grades were changed as well. Lots of numbers in the 90s. I closed the grade book and placed it back in the drawer exactly as I had found it but I hear a little "Plink!" sound. I pulled on the drawer and realized it was now locked but wasn't before. OK, So maybe he'll think he locked it. No big deal. My mind began to wonder of what the aftermath of this might be. Would this work? Would I be able to get away with not taking the exam by creating this academic chaos? About this time was when I noticed the IBM PC on his back table. Hmmm. Did he record his grades on a hand written register and his PC? IF he had a backup of the grades, all of this would be for nothing. Also, I couldn't reference all the changed grades a the drawer was now locked. I booted up his IBM PC XT and saw that it had two 3.5 disk drives. There's 5 disks by the computer. What to do? I load each disk in the drive and type "DEL *.* " and nuke them all. I hadn't planned on this but then "Fuck It Mode". So let's review the plan, change so many grades that he would have to take an impossible amount of time to deconstruct the chaos and simply give out good grades or at least better grades as needed. No one particular student would be identifiable as a culprit because there were plenty who had a motivation to change the grades. This was as good of an idea as i could come up with. After having distributed all the good grades to all the good boys and girls I gathered my tools and planned my exit strategy. The back of his door had a few items taped to it as well so i replaced the glass and frame and covered it with another manilla folder. I wrote a poorly written not on a post it that said. "Sorry mop handle cracked the glass. Replaced glass. - maintenance". I then split, got passed the grad student running the machine, slipped out the window and never went back . Didn't show up for the final exam either because you know, higher than a (edited) 90 93 average and all.... Waited 45 long days that summer to get my grades. Got a 90 in the class. Yeah... okay no complaints. There had to be some other people who got their grades and were happier as well. Never suffered any consequences on this either but it was the most stressful night of my life. I haven't done shit like this ever again. TL/DR Read the title. ********** Okay Here's some follow up to messages & comments **************\* So I'm 50 years old now, and I wrote this on a slow last hour of work on a Thursday because I had been reminded of it when reading a different Reddit post. I wrote the post in about 15-20 minutes. A few have asked about the grading discrepancy of 90 vs 93. Now that this memory has taken up a little bit more of my brain space the past 24 hours, what I recall was that the requirement to not have to take the exam was having an A average. We were on a 7 point scale then so that would have been 93 and up. I had changed my grades in the grade book first to meet this requirement (again, the whole time in adrenalin freak out mode) but once I had written over my numbers it was obvious that I was the only one with adjusted grades. I had hoped I could make th e numbers look more convincing. I also realize the self-incriminating factor of just my grades being changed and for self-preservation, started changing them all. It took forever. When I left the building, the the sky was starting to get light for the sunrise. I stated that I arrived at 3:30 am, that was a guess. I wasn't concerned with what time it was was just wanting to get in and get out as soon as I had resolved my grade problem. The thing I failed to convey in the post was that fact I didn't take the exam but when I received my grades I got a 90 (which is a B on the 7 point scale). This didn't match up to not taking the exam because you should need an A to not take it. So technically, I should have complained and said, "Hey where's my A?" since I did not take the exam. So I thought this might have been a dragnet where all students got a maximum B grade and then this would allow them to find legit A students who would complain and possibly flush out an illegitimate C or D students who might ask about their better than expected grade. That's why I wrote "no complaints". State of mind Not an excuse in any way, but I had a parent pass away my first year at college. There wasn't a lot of counseling back then, just a hand on the shoulder and condolences. I don't remember even hearing the word "depression" uttered except in psychology class. Mental health was not freely discussed unless someone had big problems. I was probably on the cusp of what was then called a "nervous breakdown". I had come from a small town, and had expected to escape my one horse town and breeze through college, one of the smart kids ya know. But I had to let my only dream die. I had lost my Dad, my academic career, my escape and my identity at 19. I know plenty had it worse but it felt really bad. I had to eat a lot of humble pie and at first it sucked, but not long after I felt free of the burden of being in the wrong place, pursuing the wrong thing and I started smiling again. Aftermath I changed schools that summer and also change my field of study. Something about experiencing the absolute "guilt of failure" of the first school really made me driven at my new school. It was also a much smaller school and had less distractions. I thrived, made straight As and loved learning the new subject matter. I'll describe my field as "Design" as that's nice and vague. I've been doing that since graduation successfully and have my own company and employees. I'm not world famous or anything but I would bet most of you have had an interaction with something I have designed. This school had been my favorite college sports team my whole childhood and was my single plan as a college student. That died because of this. I had not set foot on that large campus since the day I left many years ago, until this past summer when my son went to go tour. I had to hide the awful feeling I had as we walked by the building where this happened. Just this low sense of ancient dread from a past life staring at me as I walked by, my son unaware and instead excited to be there. The professor in this story works for the same university, He had done other things and came back. He's got patents and a PhD and is an expert in the field. Here's a potentially crummy part. He got his PhD within a year of this incident so I really hope I didn't destroy any of his research when deleting the computer disks. I've thought about anonymously sending him this reddit link or even *67 calling him to see what the true aftermath was but this seems like a bad idea and would likely just bum me out. Doubters My post has several people who doubt the veracity of my post and I get it, it is the internet. But the story is true and if there's any untruth is in the specific number details. Did I wait exactly 45 days for my grades that summer, fuck if I know, I know I did count them back then because I was waiting for grades that would make or break me. But 40-45-65 I don't remember. Did i change that many grades. I swear, I changed as many as I could. 79 now 99, 66 now 86. That's what happened. I distinctly remember feeling the need to do more and more because every time I stopped I would see one more I could change and that meant I was safer from being discovered. There's another, change it. And another. And more was better because each one was another step at covering my tracks. Response - This post got a lot of positive responses, good karma etc. It's misplaced. I didn't do this out of a spirit of goodness. I gave others good grades to mask my fraudulent attempt at bettering my academic standing. I went home after this and passed out sleeping for most of the day. i still had to study for the exam I was trying to ace legitimately and then after that, for weeks afterward I was always wondering, I wonder what happened? And waited on my grades to arrive. Several professors have expressed their disdain at this and yeah, I can see why. obviously. It was a long time ago. I've pondered a way to make things right and correct this wrong I created. I'm open to suggestions. Something about being 50 makes you want to correct mistakes that can be corrected. Bottom line I'm glad if you thought this story from my youth was entertaining. I'm not proud of this. I've never told another soul this story. Who would? The lesson here might be: If it feels like work, dread, like you don't belong; be honest with yourself. There is likely a direction that you will thrive in and this may not be it. I got one of my biggest screw ups out of the way at age 19, some people have theirs much later. I'm a happy person now. Life is good. It's all worth it.
Preface: Please believe me when I say I really wanted to take this month off and enjoy the snow in Tahoe. But as I was driving, something caught my eye... Make no mistake. This stock is not going to be nearly as volatile or profitable as GME. In fact, this might be so boring that most of you will ignore me yet again. And that’s exactly why I like it. I’ll do my best to make this engaging, but the fact is, this is going to be a slow grind. Both this DD and the stock. Also, as a bonus, Reddit is currently public enemy #1 in the eyes of the media. Why don’t we do a quick heel-turn and join their side? Are they gonna hate us for buying boring value stocks? They won’t know what hit them. That will be a fun show to watch. Anyway… let’s take a look under the hood. As always, not financial advice. Just education. NOTHING IS A RECOMMENDATION. We are just sharing knowledge here. Ok SEC? Intro: Ford (NYSE: $F -- NOT NASDAQ:$FORD), is another depressed deep value multiple expansion arbitrage play. No short squeeze this time. The GME asymmetry may not be seen again for 10 years. It might seem boring and unsexy on the surface, but Ford is a fantastic company in the midst of one of the best turnarounds in American history. And with a little help from our friend Mr. Options (or as Buffett called, Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction) we can turn a boring old Ford into a lightning fast Ferrari using the quadruple income option wheel strategy. Don’t try this at home. If you don’t know what CSPs, CCs, or vega are, stick to shares. Those should work just fine. Let’s break this down into 5 parts: electrification story and leadership, multiples expansion, technical analysis, options, and the trade. By the way, in 2019, the Ford F-Series was second only to the Apple iPhone, which raked in $55 billion, in terms of total revenue generated. The F-Series generated more revenue than the NFL, MLB, NBA, and the NHL combined, which added up to $40 billion. Just something to think about.
The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round...
Electrification story and leadership: Let’s jump into history for a second. Ford had a meteoric rise from 1997 - 1999 from $15 to around $32 at the peak. This was due to $F reporting massive earnings increases each quarter:
They were just feasting and feasting. Jim Farley looks like the best person alive to revitalize Ford, capable of tripling the stock in 2-3 years. Look at the last two quarters:
Q3-2020 - Adjusted EPS: 65 cents vs 19 cents expected, Automotive revenue: $34.71 billion vs $33.51 billion expected (due to pent up demand)
Q2-2020 - Adjusted EPS: A loss of 35 cents per share versus a loss of $1.17 per share expected, Automotive revenue: $16.6 billion versus $15.95 billion expected.
Here are excerpts from the Q3 earnings and some other notable highlights:
Farley: Now that plan, which was introduced to the Ford team and many stakeholders on October 1, is very straightforward. Among other things, No. 1, we will compete like a challenger, earning each customer with great products but as well services with rewarding ownership experiences. Number two, we're moving with urgency to turn around our automotive operations, improve our quality, reduce our cost and accelerate the restructuring of underperforming businesses. And third, we're going to grow again but in the right areas, allocating more capital, more resources, more talent to our very strongest businesses and vehicle franchises; incubating, scaling and integrating new businesses, some of them enabled by new technology like Argo's world-class self-driving system; and expanding our leading commercial vehicle business with great margins but now with the suite of software services that drive loyalty and generate reoccurring annuity-like revenue streams; and being a leader in electric vehicle revolution around the world where we have strength and scale. So now speaking about EVs. To start with, we're developing all-new electric versions of the F-150 and the Transit, the two most important, highest-volume commercial vehicles in our industry. These leading vehicles really drive the commercial vehicle business at Ford, and we're electrifying them.
Quick sidebar here from my buddy M: "Whereas traditional manufact / consumer / industrials are valued on an EBITDA multiple, SAAS has historically been valued on a revenue multiple, which translates to flat out higher valuations. EVs themselves are not necessarily a higher margin product that justifies a higher multiple (at least not that I've seen), but tech services / subscriptions are the real money makers in this game. Hint Hint companies like Apple throwing everything they have at trying to integrate services and subscriptions over the last 5 years" This further justifies the expansion multiples we expect will catch up to leading EV automakers (see below).
We own work at Ford. And these electric vehicles will be true work vehicles, extremely capable and with unique digital services and over-the-air capabilities to improve the productivity and uptime of our important commercial customers. The electric Transit, by the way, will be revealed next month, and you heard about it here first, for all of our global markets. We believe the addressable market for a fully electric commercial van and pickup, the two largest addressable profit pools in commercial, are going to be massive. Now you're going to see our strategy of electrifying our leading commercial vehicles and our iconic high-volume products expand very quickly at Ford. When you look at our results, they reflect the benefit of our decision two years ago to allocate capital to our strongest franchise, namely: pickups, a whole range of utilities across the world, commercial vehicles and iconic passenger vehicles. Additionally, we saw higher-than-expected demand for our new vehicles in the quarter. Together, these factors, plus the strongest performance from Ford Credit in 15 years, led to a total company adjusted EBIT margin of 9.7%. That's 490 basis points higher than last year. As an outcome of all this, we generated $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow. The strong cash flow in the quarter gave us the confidence and the ability to make a second payment on our corporate revolver, which we did on September 24. So now we have fully repaid the entire $15 billion facility, and we ended the third quarter with a strong balance sheet, including nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion of liquidity, which provides us with the vital financial flexibility we need.
Check out this credit downgrade weeks before Ford paid off their revolving credit facility. Smells like GME? Alright. What about Q4-2020 and beyond? Ford is expected to post a loss. TA is signaling a beat (see the TA section). Ford is spending this money in order further restructure and deliver on the following items in their pipeline: Bronco:
Within the first month of open reservations, the Bronco had received an estimated 230,000 reservations. 230,000 reservations is an incredibly impressive figure, especially when put into the context of Ford’s total vehicle sales. 230,000 sales would represent 4% of Ford’s total sales.
Some other nice features: Fold down the shifter, lay seats down completely flat, speakers in headrest, tailgate worksurface (pen/pencil holders, rulers) C clamp, 120V outlet, bottle opener, light), sensing running board, tailgate step and railing, and more. Watch the video.
Ford Raptor launch (just happened today, customers are excited. Look at the comments on YouTube and IG) Further potential tailwinds:
The Postal Service told Trucks.com that it expects to reach a contract with one or more of the teams bidding for the business in the federal government’s second fiscal quarter of 2021. That works out to the first quarter of next year.
There is a historical inverse relationship between gas prices and car sizing. Tell me if I'm reaching here. But as America continues to head towards electrification and energy independence under Biden, larger gas cars will be more in demand. Furthermore, the aftershock of COVID will continue to propagate the dedensification of cities. Less commuter vehicles, and more travel vehicles. And look who is conveniently positioned to take advantage of all of this?
Dr. Anning Chen is also a killer CEO of Ford China. This is largely intangibles (which Wall Street cannot model), but watch his interviews here and here.
Dr. Chen used the COVID shutdown to improve the operational efficiency of the company. It has not shown on the bottom line thus far, but it will later.
Regarding the above leadership and BOD members, experienced executives are a better fit for running the day-to-day than any other. Add a sprinkle of savvy techfin folk and you have a recipe for a elite transition.
English please? Ford is a strong company. Farley is delivering on his promises and can lead the company towards an operationally efficient turnaround towards electrification. Combine this with a loyal customer base rivaled only by AAPL, and you get another special opportunity. This is the turning point. Multiples Expansion: Now here lies the crux of the thesis. Amidst all the EV hype, Ford is being unfairly ignored at an extremely depressed multiple compared to the other companies in the EV space. Here are some comparisons (numbers may be slightly outdated, pulled earlier this week, more relative comparison than absolute): $Ticker - Market Cap - TTM Revenue MM - TTM EBITDA MM - Revenue Multiple - Ebitda Multiple TSLA - $810B - $28B - $4B - 29X - 202X NIO - $92B - $12B - ($7B) - 7.6X - (NaN) GM - $78B - $116B - $18B - 0.7X - 4.3X F - $44B - $131B - $10B - 0.3X - 4.4X That’s an eyesore. Let’s focus on just TSLA and Ford, because why not. Assuming Ford can quickly turn towards electrification (from the evidence above), these two companies are fair comparisons. No Tesla is not a software/energy company, look at their automotive % of revenue. Stop it. It has only recently dropped to 80% due to the expansion of their leasing division. Energy is still a tiny part of TSLA. Revenue Multiple: TSLA = 29X F = 0.3X EBITDA Multiple: TSLA = 202X F = 4.4X Yes those numbers are correct. Look at them for 60 seconds and tell me what you see. Quick quote from my buddy M:
Just zoom out and think. TSLA is for sure ahead of the rest on their tech and charging infra right now. But in terms of just overall bottom line infrastructure and manufacturing capability; once the GMs, Fs, and VWs of the world can get the ball rolling, they are way ahead in that aspect. Much more experience in production and retail / distribution channels, as well as logistics sourcing. Plenty of battery makers, and self driving tech makers out there too right now. Small to mid scale M&A will probably be the name of the game if I had to guess.
This is why Burry is short $TSLA, but two scenarios can unfold: either the high-flying stocks drop, or Ford rises. I believe we will land somewhere in the middle, with Ford rising as we begin to enter the optimism phase in the final third of our bull market. Shorting is a dangerous game anyway... So I’ve been hearing on the news... TA, Options: Exhibit A from our resident chart whisperer J (who will remain unnamed because you monkeys keep bothering him). Larger view. As you can see, the trendline has broken out. Exhibit B from our resident quant T (also to rename unnamed):
Starting on 1/4 you'll find right tail distributions into any liquidation which represent large buying. Which has led up to a recent run-up and eventually left tail distributions which represent short coverings which lead into the gaps and thinner distributions where there aren't any major bids. Even with the pullback on 1/22 we see more right tail distribution after the profit taking from the recent run-up, which means someone is buying up the inventory. This is unusual for F, where F trades within tight ranges. On 2/1 you can see a bimodal distribution which means a new player has stepped in, which we assume has additional knowledge apart from the larger players that were already in the market. The recent range between 10.70 and 11.20 indicates that the market has accepted this price range as fair value. Without additional research at first glance we can see that a large player (or players) is buying up a significant amount of inventory. On 1/4 we find that the volume increased to 77,559,128 from the previous trading of 34,462,454 (125% increase) and 33,127,776 the day before that. Volume has been higher since. On our first major left tail distribution (which represents short covering) since the buying on 1/4 the volume was at 113,707,973.
Exhibit C 250k shares of F 10.92; 100k F 11.04; 3.53m F 9.78; 708k F 9.78; 500k F 9.64; 377k F 9.50; 338k F 9.50; 201k F 9.75; 192k F 9.80; 150k F 9.77 These are blocks of shares bought in the past 7 days Top OI changes: +19610 F 02/05/21 11 C 43821 38% 13% 48% +12904 F 02/05/21 12 C 31929 38% 11% 52% Top OI positions: 170902 F 02/19/21 10 C +807 26% 49% 25% 112480 F 02/19/21 12 C +3207 29% 29% 41% The percentages are bid mid ask. Someone is bullish on Ford. For an earnings play, daily RSI is oversold looking towards an uptick. Options gamma is interesting to note as well. Open interest on 2/5 $13 and $15Cs are also notable. Could be covered calls? Could be someone knows something? Could be Jeff reading too much into the tea leaves. Not financial advice. Just showing you what I see. The Trade: The simplest way is just to purchase shares and collect dividends as Ford may reinstate them sometime in 2021. Possibly leaps if you feel adventurous. For the option junkies like myself, and as a tribute to the greatest company in American history, I will use the wheel(s). The GME trade was a very special and momentous occasion. Now that we have a bankroll, we’ll just quietly play theta gang as we enjoy our lives and spend time with our families and loved ones. Here’s a good summary. This is not for amateurs. I mean, none of this is financial advice anyway, just educational. But in a nutshell, I will: 1) Buy shares, 2) Sell CSPs 30-45 days out with 0.3 delta, 3) sell CCs with 0.3 delta (will reconsider this if Ford goes vertical) 4) Collect dividends. The Wheel doesn’t work on everything. Here are the qualifications from the above post, let me know if this sounds familiar:
Profitable company that has solid cash flow
Bullish, or Very Bullish, analyst ratings
Priced around $10 to $50 so that I can afford to take the assignment if needed and I stay away from sub-$10 stocks as a rule
A stable chart without wild gyrations (especially those caused by CEO tweets!)
A nice dividend is always a good thing, both that you may collect it if assigned the stock but also that dividend stocks tend to more stable and predictable.
Hmm... Conclusion: Ford is a massive, complex, multinational corporation so I’ve likely missed very many things, but I wanted to get this out before ER so I can flex again. (No market manipulation here lol. My buddy's multi-million dollar block buys didn't move the needle one iota.) There are many things I haven’t covered, and simply don’t know yet. As more facts begin to unfold, and as I spend more time with the stock, I’ll share the information here. Also, every time I post about an equity, it seems to go down. Lol... (GME). With all this in mind, this is still a very risky bet. Nevertheless, I like what I’ve seen thus far. Ford looks like a fantastically healthy company in the midst of a turnaround towards electrification with a phenomenally depressed multiple according to the market’s appetite. It deserves a multiple trending towards TSLA’s, not a dying auto manufacturer. Jim Farley has shown early to be a great CEO and I think he can continue the transformation. We’ve begun to enter a phase of exuberance, so I’ll choose to long Ford instead of short TSLA. As a bonus, we have the opportunity to join forces with the boomers and talking heads and bet on one of their favorite companies. Time for America to be on the same side again. We’ve been divided for too long. I know my GME posts were lucky. I’ll stake my reputation on another bet. One call sure is lucky. What about two? In any case, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Glad to be a part of this journey with you all. Note: I will not discuss GME in the comments, which all depends on Ryan Cohen. There is nothing further to add until Q4 earnings. And finally, we’ve officially entered the last phase of our very long bull market. This is not necessarily a sell signal yet, as some of the greatest returns can come in this period and can last for a long time. I will do my best to look for the signal and sound the alarm. The world will be celebrating, and I will be bearish. Burry’s passive indexing bubble call in combination with Thiel’s government debt bubble call will lead us into a dark time of unprecedented proportions. Tail risk hedging won’t work as the declines will be slow at first, and then fast and violent and unrecoverable. Be careful. Listen to Ken Fisher. Thank you very much for your time. Positions: Bullish shares, LEAPS, on-going quadruple income wheel strategy as Ford reinstates the dividend. Timeframe 12-18 months. Watch out VIGILANTLY for macro risks. Bear market is on the horizon. Drop some Fs in the chat to pay respects. PT: $32 with a chance of $98 if we start to see exuberance in the broader market. -JA
Titan Medical ($TMDI) - An emerging leader in surgical robotics. Why Titan Medical is poised to replicate the 11,000% returns of Intuitive Surgical, and why I have recently become so bullish.
2. Learn about Titan Medical and their vision for the Enos Surgical System.
3. Watch a demonstration of the Enos surgical system.
4. Watch an overview of Titan Medical’s third quarter, 2020 update.
GIVE ME A COMPANY OVERVIEW Titan Medical is a medical robotics company, based in Toronto, Canada, which recently completed an incentive based partnership with Medtronic, the largest medical supply company in the world. Titan Medical’s flagship product is the Enos surgical suite, an ergonomic, single access surgical system, that uses multi-articulated instruments with fluid motion guidance to replicate natural movement. Their workstation is smaller and more mobile than both the Intuitive and TransEntrix surgical suites. With a single port of entry, the Enos requires minimal innervation, resulting in less trauma and scarring than its competitors. They are lead by chairman and CEO, David McNally, a 33 year veteran in the medical device industry, and the co-founder of ZEVEX, an award-winning medical device company. TELL ME ABOUT THEIR FLAGSHIP PRODUCT The Enos surgical system, which was rebranded in September of 2020, is a mobile, single access surgical suite, designed in coordination with laparoscopic and robotic assisted surgeons. Unlike other devices, such as the da Vinci from Intuitive Surgical, the Enos was developed as a cost-effective, single-incision system, with reusable multi-articulating instruments, and a small footprint. In addition to traditional operating room procedures, the Enos targets underserved markets, such as a small ambulatory surgical centers. The Enos was designed with an open architecture, allowing it to adapt to future instruments, beyond traditional graspers, hooks, drivers, and scissors. To date, it has completed numerous pre-clinical procedures, including hysterectomies, nephrectomies, cholecystectomies, gastrectomies, splenectomies, and colectomies. For peer-reviewed abstracts, please refer to page 14 of Titan Medical’s investor overview. WHAT DOES THE MANAGEMENT LOOK LIKE? Titan Medical is lead by chairman and CEO, David McNally, the founder of Domain Surgical, and the co-founder of ZEVEX, an award winning medical technology company. He is also the co-inventor of over 40 U.S. and international medical device patents. Look at this man. He is the most CEO looking guy that I’ve ever seen. He’s been building successful companies since his early twenties. At research and development, the company is lead by Dr. Perry Genova, PhD, an accomplished biomedical engineering executive. Dr. Genova previously managed Centauri Robotic Surgical Systems, a private company specializing in robotic stereotactic neurosurgery. Prior to that, Dr. Genova was the president and CEO of Oncoscope, a medical device company that was acquired by SpectraScience in 2016. DOES TITAN MEDICAL OWN ANY INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY? Yes, Titan Medical has 58 issued patents, with 84 patent applications pending. DOES TITAN MEDICAL HAVE ANY INTERESTING PARTNERSHIPS? Yes, and for me, this was the most important recent milestone. In June of 2020, Titan Medical entered into an agreement with Medtronic to advance the development of their robotic surgery technologies. The agreement includes a 10 million dollar payment, and an additional series of payments totaling $31 million in exchange for Medtronic’s right to license certain technologies from Titan Medical. Medtronic is the largest medical device company in the world, and they are making substantial efforts to compete with Intuitive Surgical. Medtronic has a long history of billion dollar acquisitions. For example, in 2018, they purchased Mazor Robotics, a medical robotics company that specializes in spinal surgery, for $1.7 billion. If I had to speculate, I believe there is a high probability that Medtronic acquires Titan Medical. DOES TITAN HAVE THE CAPITAL TO CONTINUE DEVELOPMENT? Yes, please refer to the paragraph above, which discusses their partnership with Medtronic. You can view Titan Medical’s third quarter 2020 press release here. You can view their $10 million technical milestone press release here. WHAT OTHER INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS HAVE OCCURRED RECENTLY?
In addition to their partnership with Medtronic, Titan Medical released a regulatory update, from the FDA, which indicated that the Enos system is appropriate for classification through the De Novo pathway, and confirmed that Titan Medical will file a clarifying pre-submission for Investigational Device Exemption studies.
In view of the FDA’s written response and other information available to the Company at this time, the Company would likely proceed with a De Novo classification request for its Enos system in place of a 510(k) submission. Should the FDA grant the De Novo classification request, the Class II device would be cleared to be marketed.
In late 2020, Titan rebranded its surgical system, the SPORT surgical system, to the Enos robotic single access surgical system, so it could better represent its design and capabilities.
In late 2020, Titan Medical obtained two additional U.S. patents for methods and apparatuses for camera positioning and hand controller Apparatus for gesture control and shared input control in a robotic surgical system.
In September of 2020, only a few months after Titan Medical inked a deal with Medtronic, we saw a major increase in institutional investment. JP Morgan increased their equity in Titan Medical by 29,600 shares, for a total of 47,000. Bank of America increased their position by 60,900 shares, for a total of 70,605. Two Sigma Advisers, the famed hedge fund which uses AI and machine learning, increased their position by 73,500, for a total of 220,600 shares. Other notable institutional investors include Capital One, Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Canada.
WHERE DO YOU SEE THIS COMPANY IN THE FUTURE? At this stage, I consider Titan Medical to be an early iteration of Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG), which is a leader in robotic-assisted systems. Intuitive Surgical developed the famed da Vinci surgical system, which received FDA approval in 2000. Since the release of the da Vinci system, Intuitive Surgical’s stock has appreciated over 8,000%. There is a growing consensus that robotic-assisted companies will become the leading investment class over the next several decades, even outpacing dominant stocks, like Amazon or Apple. Considering the competitive landscape, the previous success of Intuitive, the rapid growth in robotic technology, and Titan Medical’s partnership with Medtronic, it’s reasonable to consider that they might be acquired by Medtronic. WHY SHOULD I SPECULATE ON TITAN MEDICAL INSTEAD OF INVESTING IN INTUITIVE SURGICAL? The easiest answer is the best answer. This is a microcap stock forum, and our goal is to discover and speculate on companies before they reach extraordinary valuations. Intuitive is an established company, and the majority of its yield has already been realized. Titan Medical is an early stage, medical robotics company, with a suite of emerging robotics technology, and a series of upcoming triggers both in the near-term, and over the course of the next several months and years. Their incentive based partnership with Medtronic gives them access to capital, engineering, and leadership, ensuring the company can reach full commercialization. HOW WELL WILL THE SURGICAL ROBOT MARKET DEVELOP? There are various opinions on this subject, but all reports indicate massive growth over the next 5-7 years, citing CAGR rates between 16-25%. You can read analysis from Emergen Research and MordorIntelligence. The competitive landscape is straddled between a fragmented market, without dominant players, and a consolidated market, dominated by only a few major players. More specific reports, such as the Global Urology Robotic Surgery Market 2020 report, cites Titan Medical as a top player in the robotic surgery market. Historically, and recently, companies like Intuitive, Stryker, Verb Surgical, and Medtronic have made several acquisitions, all in an effort to gain an edge. I believe this reinforces the possibility that Titan Health could be acquired, especially considering the ENOS system has unique engineering elements and patents that existing and developing surgical suites do not have. WHY ARE YOU BUYING IN RIGHT NOW? I have been following Titan Medical for over two years now. Previously, I was hesitant to invest due to their financial situation. I wasn't certain if they had enough capital and resources to reach commercialization, but I remained highly interested. Their presentations during 2020 were compelling, especially when they presented at the H.C. Wainwright conference. I was on the verge of opening a position, and when Medtronic announced their deal, I was convinced this is was company I wanted to speculate on long term. Recently, I've noticed an increase in major institutional investments, and the regulatory feedback they have received from the FDA has been great. It creates compelling headlines, and brings us closer to an ultimate FDA clearance. Based on sentiment and activity analytics, I believe that they’re entering the beginning of a hype period. I expect we'll begin to see numerous articles and forum posts about them. For these reasons, and several more, I increased my position on Friday by 6,000 shares. WHERE ARE WE AT IN THE HYPE STAGE? Let me preface by stating that I almost exclusively prefer to enter positions before any hype exists. You will make significantly better returns by positioning yourself before the crowd arrives than you will by chasing the hype after it has occurred. Based on market sentiment, and the frequency at which Titan Medical is referenced on YouTube, reddit, and other social media and investment platforms, I believe we’re at the beginning of the bell curve. I use a proprietary sentiment tracker, which I cannot release (it’s not mine), however publicly available systems, such as Google’s trend analytics, show that activity has recently broken a 30 day high. For the first time, over the last 1-2 weeks, I’ve begun to see the first references to Titan Medical on various YouTube channels. However, the activity on Reddit is currently very small, which is good in my opinion, since Reddit tends to be last in the hype cycle. By the time stock picks become hyped on Reddit, most of the short term gains have been had. WHY DO YOU HAVE SO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS STOCK? My background is in medicine and human physiology, while my more recent work and education is in financial markets. Although I was not a surgeon, I have an adequate medical background to understand the need and utility of surgical robots, and to be able to accurately interpret research publications. I have a network of friends and colleagues in the industry that have helped me review the company, including several laparoscopic surgeons. However, the majority of my confidence comes from Medtronic. As a partner and investor, Medtronic received exclusive access to the finances and engineering of Titan Medical. They were able to investigate the company beyond what any of us could accomplish, and these investigations resulted in a significant partnership. Based on Medtronic’s success, their history of acquisitions, their extensive resources, and their explicit desire to dominate the robotic surgery market, I believe Titan Medical is a winning investment. Because Titan Medical is in a pre-commercialization stage, the masses have not yet noticed this stock, and I believe that provides an asymmetrical risk due to the enormous potential profit. Even at early speculative stages, I expect this company to have a billion dollar market cap. THIS SOUNDS INTERESTING. HIT ME WITH SOME CRAZY HYPE. WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN AN IDEAL SCENARIO? If Titan Medical were to achieve a market capitalization similar to Intuitive Surgical, it would reach an equity share price of approximately $1,140/share. This would amount to an estimated 46,500% increase from Titan Medical’s current share price. In the short term, I believe we see major price action based on their Medtronic partnership, their improved financial situation ($10M bought deal offering is expected to close on Jan 29th), their FDA milestones, and their pre-clinical operations. Based on the impressive price action on Friday, and over the course of the previous week, I expect this company to start hitting Reddit, YouTube, and other major forums, which, believe it or not, has been a major indicator for short and long term stock gains. TL;DR: Titan Medical is a surgical robotics company that developed the Enos surgical suite, an innovative, single-access surgical system, designed in coordination with laparoscopic and robotic assisted surgeons. This company plans to replicate the success of Intuitive Surgical, a surgical robotics company worth over $87 billion, who’s share price has increased over 11,000% since the introduction of their da Vinci surgical system. In addition to their rebranding, Titan Medical recently completed an incentive based partnership with Medtronic, the largest medical device company in the world, which will provide financing, board oversight, and research and development assistance. This is a major milestone for Titan Health, because it ensures their success, either through their own development, or through acquisition. The stock has been on a steady upward trend since the deal was announced, but based on recent volume and online activity, and growing institutional investment, I believe it’s entering an accelerated bullish phase. POSITION: 12,000 shares of TMDI Obligatory Edit: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
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