Yankee Bet Calculator - Quickly Work Out Your Winnings

First, I'm sorry this is so long. Second - please be nice. We have debt, bad habits, and are Catholic. So if any of those things are going to get you spun up, just skip this one.
Section One: Assets and Debt Use this section to explain your current financial picture at large.
Everything here is joint – “M” and I have been married 22 years and we’ve had “smashed money” that whole time (and really for about a year before that).
Retirement Balance (and how you got there): Approximately $500,000 in a variety of IRAs and current 401(k)s.
Equity if you're a homeowner (and how much you put down and how you accumulated that payment). Bought our house in 2001 for $239,000 with 20% down (some aggressive saving and a gift from each of our parents). We refinanced, took some cash out for some home repairs, and reduced it to a 15-year loan in 2009 – our current equity would be about $195,000, but similar homes in the neighborhood are listed at $475,000-$525,000, so if we ever sell, we’re probably coming out ahead.
Savings account balance: $6,000
Checking account balance: $6,500
Credit card debt (and how you accumulated it): I hope you’re sitting down. Approximately $40,000. Yes, you read that right. How we accumulated it? The house is 90 years old and constantly falling apart, so we’ve had to charge things that needed to be done (some we wanted to have done, but some – like the time our oil burner stopped working in December – were needs). We had two dogs with numerous medical issues – I don’t want to calculate what they cost me, but they each had surgeries that were about $5,000 (each), plus other chronic and acute medical issues. And yes…for a while, we were doing and buying things we probably shouldn’t have (not bad things, just vacations, clothes, and non-essential home improvements) So…when I’m 100 and greeting people at Wal-Mart, I’ll at least have some good memories. That said, I can’t tell you the last time I used credit – if we can’t afford to pay cash, we don’t do it (and I say that fully realizing most people would feel that I shouldn’t do anything).
Student loan debt (for what degree): None – my husband went to the military and then to work after high school and I went back to community college later in life and paid as I went.
Anything else that's applicable to you: If my ex-husband dies before me, I’ll have about $6,000 in a money market that he must have forgotten about. When we divorced, he was supposed to liquidate all those accounts and give me half. He was an accountant and a SOB, so I never knew exactly what we had, but what I got seemed accurate (it paid for furniture, my wedding to M and part of this house, so I was OK with it). Lo and behold, a couple years ago, I found out we still have this money market account in both names. I tried to find him so we could liquidate/split it, but he’s missing. I get the statements here now, and the good part is he’s older than me, so I’m holding out hope he predeceases me and it will be mine.
Section Two: Income
Income Progression: I've been working in my field for a year and a half, my starting salary was $100,000. I did a salary story with the entire progression – long story short, I’ve made more, and I’ve made less, but this is probably about the average of the last five years.
My husband has been at his job for 14 years – he started there making around $75,000 and now makes $110,000. They usually give him a $10,000 bonus at the end of the year, but are always crying poverty if people ask for a raise. Prior to that, he worked for a company that paid very well and he had a 15-minute commute, but he got out one step ahead of their bankruptcy.
Main Job Monthly Take Home:
Me: $5,152
J: $6,230
Side Gig Monthly Take Home:
M is paid $1,300/month by our parish for serving as Youth Minister.
Any Other Monthly Income: $16.00
I get quarterly dividends on stock I was given when I was born (I may not have been born into money, but apparently my grandparents had friends who thought this was a good baby gift). The last few were around $50, so I divided by 3.
Section Three: Expenses
Rent / Mortgage / HOA fees (please specify how you split it if living with a partner): $3,043, which includes the property taxes and homeowner's insurance
Savings contribution: $500/month without fail (my bank transfers $100 if we get over $500 in, so once each paycheck and once when we put the church check in). More if I feel the savings needs a boost.
Debt payments:

Credit card #1: $350/month (this is about twice the minimum)
Credit card #2: $375/month (minimum payment)
Credit card #3: $200/month (minimum payment - this is the next one getting whacked when #1 is paid off)

Donations: OK – anyone who isn’t screaming because I owe $40K is going to start now.

$300/month to the church in the “collection basket” (it’s electronic, but same diff)
$100/month to the church building fund (last year of a five-year pledge, thankfully – if I hadn’t promised to pay it, I wouldn’t)
$25/month to Habitat for Humanity
$20/month to Citymeals on Wheels
~$50/month to various other charities
~$100/month in food for the church food drive (we don’t have a food pantry, but collect food every week and anyone from the neighborhood can come take some. The rest is donated to several food pantries and soup kitchens in the Diocese).
As far as volunteer hours, M and I both teach Religious Ed. I'm on the Parish Council and co-social media manager of the parish (basically, I schedule Facebook). M also videotapes the 5:00 Mass and the children’s worship message each week and uploads it to the parish YouTube channel.

Electric: $110
Gas (stove/hot water): $50
Oil: $250/month in the winter
Wifi/Cable: $179
Cellphone: $252 for both of us (I get mine expensed except $26 for my phone payment)
Subscriptions:

$.99/month for iCloud Storage
$545/month for life insurance for both of us, plus $202 quarterly for the life insurance policies we took out when we bought the house
$17/month for NY Times online
$10.86/month for Ring video doorbell
$12.99/month for Netflix
$9.99/month for Spotify (I think M gets reimbursed for this, because he has it for Youth Ministry)
$119/year for Amazon Prime (yes, I know, I am an awful person)

Car payment / insurance: $295/month for my car (leased). My husband is driving a 10-year old car that is paid off. $128/month for auto insurance
Lawn care: $50/month
Commuting: Now that we’re in COVID times, I’ve been buying a 10-trip off peak railroad ticket every five days for $78.75. Pre-COVID, M and I each bought a monthly ticket for $270, and I took the subway most days for an additional $100/month. I fill up the car about once a month (~$36) and M fills his about every other week (~$70/month)
Saturday, September 26, 2020
7:45 am: Up and at ‘em! I get up, get coffee, check emails and social media and start the day.
8:00 am: M leaves the house for a long list of errands, the payment for which will be shown below. I put in a load of laundry and discover…a leak! There is a large pipe between our powder room sink (which I used when I woke up) and the outside world that runs through the basement and is apparently leaking. Yay whee. If you get one thing from this diary, let it be these words of wisdom – don’t buy an old house! No beautiful feature is worth the aggravation! I get the water (I hope it’s water) cleaned up, a load of laundry in, take a shower, do some picking up around the house, get dressed in a Rangers t-shirt and cut off distressed jeans, do my makeup (Olay microsculpting serum and Miracle Blur over the bottom of my face, pink, gray, and violet eyeshadows, a swipe of foundation under my eyes, black eyeliner, black mascara, and dark brown eye pencil. This is standard everyday makeup for me and will be repeated each day. I put volumizing mousse in my hair and blow dry it (also routine).
In the meantime, M gets a haircut ($30 including tip), sets up the video equipment at church, goes to CVS for passport photos that he needs for an application ($18.87), and goes to the religious goods store for a book of the Liturgy of the Hours ($42.31). He is starting formation for the diaconate (the process of becoming a Deacon in the Catholic Church) today, and they said he’ll need that book. He also needs the photos for his application, and he stops at the bank for two money orders – one to send with the background check request and one for his high school transcript ($26). On the way home, he picks up breakfast (brunch?) for us – classic New York BEC, SPK (bacon, egg, and cheese on a roll with salt, pepper and ketchup) for him and egg whites, turkey and swiss cheese on a whole wheat wrap for me ($10.78), as well as cigs for him and vape cartridges for me ($36).
The washing machine isn’t causing any additional leakage, so I move the wash to the dryer and start moving the winter clothes from the portable closet in front of the leaking pipe upstairs (they’re not wet, but we’re going to have to move the closet when the plumber comes).
After eating the egg sandwiches, we get changed for deacon class – I look like a good church lady in black slacks, a black and white flowered shirt with a black tank underneath, and black sandals with a chunky 2.5” heel. M goes with the classic golf shirt and dockers. While we’re getting changed, he mentions he needs new underwear, so I whip out the phone and order him some ($18.64).
6:30 pm: Home from deacon class and Mass and the groceries show up! I ordered them yesterday, but I don’t think the charge went through till today, so here goes. Asparagus, broccoli, celery, bananas, cucumber, lime, grape tomatoes, peaches, carrots, potatoes, spinach, lettuce, zucchini, frozen burgers, ground turkey, chicken breasts, whole chicken, fried chicken and a pot pie for J’s lunches, yogurt, sugar free pumpkin spice creamer (YES! I’ve been looking for it for weeks!), milk, heavy cream, OJ, k-cups, frozen green beans, cauliflower rice, stuffing mix, microwave rice, cake mix (the good ones were on sale), chicken broth, potato chips, and trash bags. Spent $154.95 including delivery, saved $14.50 (very low for me), tipped the delivery guy $10.
7:00 pm: After putting away all that food, what do we do? If you guessed order dinner, you’d be right! I don’t cook on Saturday unless we’re having company. We order from a new taco place – three each and “Mexican wings”. The wings were meh, but the tacos ranged from good to outstanding. $53.78 including tip. After dinner, M starts post-production of the Mass video and I do some laundry, watch the NASCAR race and the hockey game, and play games on my iPad. Remember, you’ll be old someday too!
11:00 pm: I go to the basement to pick up laundry and remember I wanted to order a new garden flag (this isn’t as random as it sounds – all my seasonal decorations are stored in the basement). I have had a cart set up for days with two garden flags ($6.99 each) and four magnetic mailbox covers for my parents for Christmas ($11.99 each) – they’ve talked about having a different one for each season, and I saw them when I was looking for a garden flag. Total with tax and free shipping: $61.94. I love Christmas and generally spend way too much on gifts so I’m trying to start shopping before December and at least spread out the pain. We went to a crafts fair a few weeks ago and I picked up a few things and now I’ve got this done – go me!!
12:30 pm: The hockey game is over (2 OT!) and I go to bed. M is napping waiting for his video production to finish.
Daily Total: $463.27
Sunday, September 27
7:00 am: The alarm goes off – ugh. It’s the first day of Religious Ed (virtual, but I have to do a 9:45 zoom with my 4th graders). Coffee, social media, shower, dress, makeup. Put on a black eyelet dress because we’re going back to church today so M can videotape First Communion. Do the usual makeup/hair thing.
10:30 am: My 4th graders are great and we’re ready to roll (M has on a shirt and tie in honor of the First Communion), and we’re off to Mass. Drop off the food I bought for our food pantry last week and help him video. Of course, the kids are adorable!
12:00 noon: We’re starving after church, so we stop at our favorite local pizza place on the way home. Get a variety of slices for $22.62, including a tip (we’re getting it to go, but I’m tipping everywhere, because I know restaurants have been hurt badly by the pandemic. These folks are in NYC and still haven’t opened inside dining.)
1:30 pm: Ate, ran more laundry, changed into the jeans I wore yesterday and a Yankees t-shirt and call the nail place. Of all my expenses, nails are probably the most non-negotiable – I’ve been getting my nails done for 40 years, and when I couldn’t do so during the lockdown, I was miserable. They can take me right away, which makes me happy.
3:00 pm: All 20 nails done – gel on the fingers and a regular pedicure with callus removal ($75 plus $15 tip = $90). I went with an autumn theme and got copper on the fingers and bronze toes – the nail polish looked in the jar like it would match the toes, but it doesn’t. Stop at CVS for eye cream (Olay for tired eyes) and mascara (L’Oreal Voluminous) - $27 with coupons. M asked me to pick up cigs on the way home, so I do, as well as vape cartridges, which I don’t technically need yet, but it will save a trip later in the week ($36).
3:30 pm: While at the nail place, I saw that one of our favorite local restaurants had a fire, which consumed an entire block of restaurants and small businesses. The Chamber of Commerce is doing a GoFundMe, and I donate $25 to the cause - $28.75 including the charge. I also notice that the weekly charge for my church donation went through ($75).
11:30 pm: Took a quick nap (the highlight of my week every week), put some fall decorations out, had our family Zoom call, laundry, got the end of the winter clothes moved upstairs, had dinner (roast chicken, stuffing, mashed potatoes, and roasted asparagus), made an apple crisp (I’m not a huge dessert person but M is and I like making desserts, so it works), watched baseball, football, the NASCAR race, and basketball, and took a quick shower. Bring a Light & Fit Toasted Coconut Vanilla yogurt (the best!) to bed, finish my book (“Next Stop, Chancey”) and find the next in the series on my iPad – I’ve read them all before, but I’m in the mood for something cozy, especially after reading about the Current Occupant’s taxes – ugh!) , and turn off the lights around midnight.
Daily Total: $279.37
Monday, September 28
6:45 am: I work from home M/W/F and so I can sleep in. Relatively speaking, anyway. Get dressed in a sleeveless top and shorts (despite the fall decorations, fall nails, and roast chicken/apple crisp, it feels rather summery out there), do makeup, have some coffee and scroll through emails/socials, move yet another load of laundry (I’m trying to get it all done before the plumber comes), find the number for the plumber and give it to M to call, get the trash out, and boil some eggs for breakfast this week. I’m sitting in front of the computer by 8:15, which is ok (technically, my hours are 8:30-5:30 – it’s usually more like 8:30-6:00, and on WFH days, starting at 7:30 is not unheard of). M drops off the car at the shop – I think I forgot to mention this, but he mentioned yesterday that when he was driving around Saturday, there was a grinding noise when he backed up. More joy to come, I’m sure.
9:45 am: I hear M on the phone with the garage – apparently, they can get a used part and do the job for $450. Not great, but it’s better than it might have been! He works from home basically every day except when he has to see customers, but thankfully we’re separated enough that we can hear each other but it’s not intrusive.
10:30 am: Between cursing at people on the phone, M calls the plumber and I grab some cheese and more coffee! I’d tell you about my job, but honestly, it’s not worth talking about. Basically, I go to meetings, take notes on meetings, and send follow-ups (I do other things, but that’s most of it). When I get off my 11:00 am meeting, I’ll find out when the plumber is coming. You guys are getting a much more exciting week than I expected!
12:30 pm: What a miserable day – it seems like everyone is annoyed! Take a break to eat a slice of leftover pizza and a Diet Coke (M finishes some rotisserie chicken from last week). He says the plumber may come today to look at the situation but can’t do the work till tomorrow.
6:00 pm: Keep my head down and get some work done in the afternoon and knock off for the day. Run downstairs and make dinner – “tacos” with strips of beef grilled with Korean barbecue sauce, shredded cabbage, cheddar cheese, pineapple salsa, cucumber slices, and lime inside warmed tortillas. Delicious, if I say so myself!
7:30 pm: I get on a Zoom faith sharing meeting and M gets on a Zoom religious ed class.
11:59 pm: Contemplated Sunday’s Gospel with my small group, watched Tampa Bay win the Stanley Cup, took a shower and set clothes out for tomorrow, and off to bed. M picked up the car after Religious Ed.
Daily Total: $450.00
Tuesday, September 29
5:45 am: Ugh. Up and out – I’m wearing a green dress with a black jacket and have black slingbacks in my bag. I have to walk 30 short blocks and five long blocks once I get off the train, so I’m traveling light. I used to take the subway to my office, but since COVID, I try to limit that as much as possible.
7:45 am: Off the railroad and walk uptown. I actually don’t mind the walk, because when I WFH, I walk very little – at the beginning of the lockdown, I had a nice walking routine, but lately the work seems to start the minute I wake up, so walking to work takes care of getting in those STEPS! I forgot my boiled eggs and I’m starving, so I end up buying an egg sandwich. $5.43
12:30 pm: Because I only go to the city twice a week and I have to walk uptown with all my work stuff, I don’t bring lunch often (pre-pandemic, I used to bring breakfast and lunch every day, but I also took the subway). Decide to run to Pret and my boss and co-worker both ask me to pick something up. Of course, no one (including me) has anything but a $20, so they both say they’ll get me next time. I get my favorite chicken parm wrap and a Diet Coke. $32
12:45 pm: I look at my personal email and discover that J’s car registration needs to be renewed. Hop on the DMV website and take care of that. $158.50. I also realize I never took out the sausages for tonight’s dinner and call M to ask him to do so. He mentions the plumber has still not shown up.
5:45 pm: Leave a little early to get to the Fed Ex office and make my train home. I’m a little later than I’d like to be and it’s raining, so I get the subway, which is thankfully empty, reasonably clean, and quick. $2.75
7:15 pm: M picks me up at the train station and mentions that he was so busy working that he didn’t take the sausages out. He asks me what I want to eat and we end up at Wendy’s. Cheeseburger, fries, and (surprise, surprise) a Diet Coke. He gets the same thing, but bigger. $19.75
11:30 pm: Avoid the debate by watching the Yankees pound the Indians. Usual routine (plus ironing a shirt for J, because he has to go to a customer tomorrow) and off to sleep. I’m up to Book 3 in the Chancey series, for those keeping score.
Daily Total: $218.43
Wednesday, September 29
5:30 am: Double ugh. Woke up to use the bathroom and couldn’t get back to sleep, so here we are. Get dressed (long-sleeved Yankees t-shirt, straight leg jeans), do the face, have some coffee, and try to avoid the fact that my boss sent me an email at 11:00 pm last night looking for changes to a document, which I said I would do today. Get the trash out, pick up a little around the house, and get to work by 7:00. OH, and despite the lack of plumber and his lack of general motivation, M moved the plastic closet…in front of the washing machine! Glad I bought him underwear, because I won’t be doing laundry any time soon. Now I’m wondering if he looked at the menu (I am an obsessive meal planner and post it on the fridge weekly) and that’s why he didn’t take the sausages out – he’s avoiding zoodles! He can run but he can’t hide – I have zucchini and I’m going to spiralize it sooner or later!
8:00 am: The document my boss needed is out, the agenda for our 9:00 am meeting is done, the morning emails are sorted (for now), and I got a link to our parish survey up on the Facebook page, so I make an egg and cheese on a tortilla and eat at my desk.
12:50 pm: Wednesday is conference call hell – I have recurring calls every Wednesday at 9:00, 10:30, and 11:30, and the added fun today of a 10:00. There’s also a webinar every Wednesday that I try to tune into. Grab some chips and a Diet Coke and go check it out.
2:15 pm: Still no damn plumber, but I’ll let M worry about that when he’s home tomorrow. My garden flags arrived, so that’s good. Hoping to get out and put the pumpkin one out before it gets dark, but the way today is going, that might not actually happen. However, I realize I never put dinner in the crockpot. Luckily, it only takes 3-4 hours on high, so I take care of that. It’s Tuscan Chicken with sun-dried tomatoes and spinach. By 2:30, I’m back at my desk with another Diet Coke and hard at it. Nightmares of rescheduling meetings, missing documents, etc.
6:45 pm: Still at my desk! OK, I took some time to send an email to the parish webmaster about the survey, update this, and read the R29 money diary of the day. But overall, I’ve been working with no apparent end in sight – I could easily be here all night, but I won’t be because (a) I’m falling asleep at my desk and (b) I have a 7:30 Religious Ed teachers meeting. Hopefully I won’t fall asleep during that. Make a list of things for my boss and I to review tomorrow and finish prepping dinner.
7:15 pm: Dinner was delicious – we had the chicken with rice for M and cauliflower rice for me, sautéed broccoli, and a basic salad (bagged spring mix, cherry tomatoes, cucumber). Now off to Zoom!
11:45 pm: The Yankees game is still on, but I’m showered, my clothes are set out for tomorrow, and I’m fading. Turn off the light and hope for a win.
Daily Total: $0.00 (bet you didn’t see that coming!)
Thursday, October 1
5:45 am: You know it…ugh. Get up, coffee, very quick scroll through the Yankees score/e-mail/social media. Get dressed in a black v-neck sweater, black and gray plaid skirt, and black jacket (not the same one I wore the other day). Am grateful the skirt fits – I gained some weight and am trying to resist buying clothes. Make sure I have the right shoes in my bag – I’m wearing high-heeled gray suede Mary Janes today.
8:15 am: At my desk and ready to go – I remembered to bring 2 hard-boiled eggs today, which I eat with coffee while looking through emails.
12:30 pm: Call after call after call, but I have a half-hour to eat. Run to the fancy buffet place that just re-opened for 2 meatballs, brussels sprouts, broccoli, salad, and the inevitable Diet Coke ($15.75). Manage to eat before my 1:00 pm call – go me!
3:30 pm: Leave to go to a job site and pick something up that has to be shipped to Italy. Something that's almost as tall as me, but thankfully not heavy. Taxi down there because I’m in a hurry and I can get reimbursed ($14.04, including tip), expensed.
4:00 pm: I get a cab to the Fed Ex office – thankfully the first one I see is a minivan, so I fit in just fine ($12.74, including tip), expensed.
5:30 pm: Well, that was harder than it needed to be – the Fed Ex office I went to didn’t have a box that would fit the item, so they suggested another Fed Ex office about 6 blocks away, so I had to walk through midtown Manhattan carrying an object almost as tall as me (it's 5' long and I'm 5'3" tall) while dodging oblivious people. Thankfully, the other office had my box, and they were super-sweet and helpful, but it took them forever to get it done. Bought the box and bubble wrap, which will be expensed (I brought the Fed Ex label, but I don’t remember the account number) ($43.54). Get a nice early train home, though!
6:45 pm: Wow, we’re eating when I’m usually getting the train! Cheeseburgers, tots (tater for J, cauliflower for me), green beans, and vinegar coleslaw with the end of the shredded cabbage. Get the kitchen cleaned and the dishwasher run and settle in to watch the Jets – I’m not holding out much hope, but you never know!
11:30 pm: I’ve showered, set out clothes for me and M (he’s seeing customers tomorrow), I prepped for Youth Group, which I’m leading because he’ll be working, and the Jets are winning, so I decide it’s time to sleep. Up to Book 5 of the Chancey series. I find series usually go downhill after about the third or fourth book, but I’m not sure what I feel like reading, so here we are. OH, at some point M must have gone to the convenience store, because there are vape cartridges on the table ($36).
Daily Total: $122.07; $70.32 expensed
Friday, October 02, 2020
6:00 am: Wake up, grab coffee, find out the Jets lost after all, do the morning e-mail/social media scroll. Leaving early to deal with that work errand has left me with a ton of stuff to do, so I get dressed (long-sleeved v-neck gray t-shirt, white tank because the v-neck is halfway to my belly button, dark wash skinny jeans), put out the trash, peel two hard-boiled eggs, and head to my desk.
12:30 pm: As always, call after call after call. Plus a bit of aggravation when my boss asks me at 10:30 for an agenda for the 11:00 call, which I sent him at about 7:30, and which he returns at 10:59 with the formatting looking like nothing on earth. Yay whee! And a project was mentioned that he forgot to tell me I’d do. So in case I thought I’d have nothing to do (that never happens on Fridays), that’s not happening. Anyway, between calls, I run downstairs for the lunch of champions – a Hot Pocket and a Diet Coke. Just that kind of day.
6:15 pm: Realize I have to run Youth Group at 7 and I haven’t even done my haimakeup. Get that done, heat up some frozen cauliflower rice/broccoli/cheese combination and add some leftover chicken. With a green salad on the side, surprisingly yummy.
8:15 pm: I am not a good youth leader…couldn’t get anyone talking about the subject of the day, which I thought would be a good one. I did make them laugh a few times, so that’s something.
M is going to have some expenses because he went to see customers today, but I don’t know what they are and his company will reimburse him, so I’m just leaving them out.
Daily Total: $0.00
This is the Week That Was:
Food + Drink: $326.06
Fun / Entertainment: $108 (if people can put drugs in as entertainment, I’m putting our nicotine in)
Home + Health: $61.94
Clothes + Beauty: $165.64
Transport: $638.03 (some of it will be expensed)
Other: $234.47
Lastly, reflect on your diary! How do you feel about your spending? Was this a normal week for you? Has this inspired you to make changes or has it given you a “wow I’m doing pretty good” confidence boost? Is there anything you’re actively working on? No need to answer any or all these questions but just use this space to write any thoughts you have!
This was a fairly normal week except for the car breaking and needing to be registered – we're saving some now that we WFH more because M will not bring food from home, but I used to bring breakfast and lunch at least four days a week. I know we should make changes, but I also know we don’t want to – honestly, if you looked at the way I lived 15 years ago, I’ve made a lot of changes already. We’re working on the credit cards – I’ve gotten rid of several already (paid off, not just moved balances around) and we don’t use them at all anymore (I can honestly say I don’t remember the last thing I charged). The bad news is that M’s car is on its last legs, and so I see car payments in our future. Hopefully, he’ll get something used – we have my car when we want to look good going somewhere (mine isn’t super-fancy, it just wasn’t hit by a bus and full of stuff for his job).
OH, and the plumber still hasn’t shown up! But that will be for next week’s expenses.

Top Betting Mistakes

1) Failure to Use Betting Banks
Most gamblers fail to understand that the best method of achieving a healthy and sustained long term profit from racing is to set aside a sum of money away from your main finances, solely for the betting of horses. Whatever method or system you are using, whoever you are following or subscribing to or however your own bets are calculated, you are better off with a "Betting Bank" that has built -in advantages that can help you. It needs to be independent from your own personal finances and needs to be protected from factors that can threaten it. This can take a lot of emotion out of the decision making process. Emotion is a factor that threatens all punters. The size of your betting bank will of course be dependent upon your own individual circumstances and free capital available.
An analogy to the world of shares perhaps may be that no financial advisor worth his salt would advise you throw all your capital into the stock market alone. The vast majority of punters fail to use any form of set aside bank. They bet randomly with what ever money they have in their pocket at the end of the week or go in too deep with stakes far in excess of their personal safety levels. A punter with a professional attitude will set aside what he can comfortably afford to invest and then determine the best use he can make of that fixed sum of capital. With a fixed sum of capital available you now move on to the next reason for failure.
2) Failure to Stake Correctly
It is vital that you consider your betting bank as capped in amount. You do not have an endless pool of resources to dip into. Betting by its nature carries inherent risks. These risks include periods of low strike rates and long losing runs. Your betting bank and staking should be adapted for the method you use. You must in advance, prepare yourself for the possibility of a worse than average sequence of losers through adoption of a sufficient number of units in your betting bank. Correct methodical staking in addition to the mathematical advantage, can also help overcome the risk of emotional reaction to a sequence of unusually positive or negative results. Take the Pricewise column in the racing post as an example.
Long term if you could get on at the advised prices, it would have returned a decent profit overall. During this time however followers would have to have endured runs of up to 40 losers in a row! Despite the overall long term profit I suspect the vast majority of Pricewise followers would have been terminated either by a failure to set aside a sufficient amount of points or through failure to cope with the emotion of the losing run. We have long since established here a strike rate of about 35% on our Best Bet selections and at an average S.P. of over 5/2 for each winning bet.
We feel able to protect clients banks as long losing runs haven't happened and the strike rate and odds have been more than enough to ensure long steady and safe growth for your betting profits. That is in essence the key to winning money. Manage your accounts in a way that protects them as far as possible from the element of risk that the game presents you.
3) Chasing Losses
Chasing losses at first sight may appear to be an easy way to guarantee an eventual profit but the true story is it is a game for fools and statistically will not work unless you generate an overall level stakes profit. Chasing losses is a game for the ill informed who do not want to make the effort to seek value in their bets. Bookmakers have to price up every race. Punters don't have to play in every race, they can pick the races they want to bet in,and that is the main edge that people fail to understand.
If you have had a losing day, by attempting to chasing your losses you give up that advantage and bet in the races that you should not be betting in. You are therefore betting the way bookmakers want you to and not in the way to win. Many punters will alter their stakes in the last race either to "chase" losses or "play up" winnings. Its no coincidence that the bookmakers have ensured that the last race on each day is often a handicap or one of the hardest races that day. There will be more racing the next day and the day after that.
The secret is waiting for opportunities and only betting when you know you have circumstances which favour you and not the bookmakers. You must never change your approach, or deviate from sensible staking as there is no such things as "The Last Race".
4) Lack of Value Appreciation
Appreciation of "value" in a bet is core to long term success. To profit over a long series of bets you must be betting at odds greater than the true chance of winning your selection have. To do this however over the long term, you need to concentrate on each race individually and seek the value bet in that race. There is value to be had in every race. The key to it is understanding where that value is. Many times a punter will screw up a losing betting slip and say "At least I had some value".
There is absolutely NO relationship between value and prices. A 33/1 chance may be diabolical value yet a very short priced favorite may be supreme value. It does not follow that the bigger the price you take the better "value" you have. The value is sometimes clear but more often well hidden and it takes a trained eye to see that. Everyone has this "Foresight" on occasions, it is a game about opinions after all and nobody is always right or wrong. Value can be the most expensive word in racing if you can't bet winner. The old cliche is that value is about betting a horse whose true chance is better than its price reflects.
That's only a small part of it. You also have to make sure that you bet in the right way and in the right races as that is the only way you can keep strike rates high and protect a betting bank. You should continually strive to increase value in your bets. Once you have a selection you feel is value do not just take the first acceptable price that comes along. Seek to improve it by shopping around the various bookmakers or try and top the best bookmakers price by looking to the betting exchanges. Marginal improvements on odds on each bet you make can have a dramatic effect on long term profits.
5) Greed For Instant Wealth
Many punters seek the thrill of a life changing bet that will produce huge gains of instant wealth for a small outlay. Bookmakers play on your natural desire and go out of their way to encourage you to bet exotic multiple selection bets that can in one hit, turn a small stake into a large sum. Professionals however rarely bet in multiples. Most professionals bet singles and steer away from the multiple bets. Bookmakers relentlessly promote a host of multiple bets with exotic names such as Yankee, Lucky 15, and Goliath.
The reason they are heavily touted is the profit margin in the bookmaker's favour increases the more selections you add to your multiple bet. Say you select any random 5/1 selection. If you bet this as a single the bookmaker may have a theoretical edge in his favor of 15%. Taking two such selections however and betting them in a win double, the bookmakers profit margin rises to about 30% ! Yes your win double can produce a much bigger win from the same stake however over the long term the bookmaker is eating away at your capital at a much faster rate.
It is a waste of time debating which type of multiple bet is 'best'. Unless your prediction skills are supernatural or you are incredibly lucky, then betting in singles is more often the best option. You may say that many "Pros," do bet in multiples in bets like The Scoop 6 or the Jackpot, but that's only because they know there is plenty of "Dead" money in any given Pool and they are betting against people who don't understand the dynamics of those types of bet. There are times you should bet in multiples but in truth they are few and far between.
You can't approach this as a "Get Rich Quick " scheme. It is a long slow process of serious and sustained profit and not a game for Get Rich Quick schemers. If you go Into any Betting shop, have a look at all the posters on the wall offering "special offers", "enhanced terms " and "bonus offers". You will see they are all multiple bets. Bookmakers want you betting in multiples and it is easy to see why. They carve most profit from them. You never see a Bookmakers promotion offering extra's on a win or each way single. Ask yourself why.

Flatten the Curve. #52. Lance B Eliot. AI World Government President (Organization) Behind Lance? Oracle Solutions. S&P. Is Techbrium a Real Company? C3.ai Founder Claims We're at War With China Already. The WEF Great Reset & Prince Charles. Boom or Doom. It's Game On.

You have to read, Flatten the Curve, Part 51 first. Who is Lance B Eliot? Link Here
After posting the article about Lance B Eliot yesterday, another video popped up on YouTube. u/D4W50N88 found it and provided the link, and I'm glad he did (Thank you D4). Why didn't it show up for me? No idea. But it did, and now the enigma has become worse.
When I first stumbled onto this, I made a mistake. I went back through my notes and found that I had wrongly attributed the Lance persona as the judge sitting to the left of what was Lance at the table. How did I screw up that bad? I'm human. (No seriously, I'm human. I'm not AI. I'm not NSA. CIA. I don't have any affiliations to any Alphabet agencies. I am what I am. And what is that? A guy who grew up with an extremely skeptical father who always called BS on the news and political events, and tried to make me understand that it was self interest, not altruism, that guided the world around us. That will be expanded on at some point down the road.) I make mistakes. It's not the first time and it won't be the last. But sometimes mistakes happen for a reason.
This is one of those times.
So I watched the second YouTube video of Lance that was provided here;

I'm not sure if he's exactly an AI, seems to be a real person going off this video -

Really quick summary, he doesn't say diddly squat. Anyone could have regurgitated lvl 5 autonomous cars and insurance rates. My statement doesn't prove anything though. I realize that. But let me ask you something, He's been on CNN, he's written a ton of books, he's an angel investor, a venture capitalist, CEO of Techbrium, and not one other picture or (so far) any other videos of him exist? We're living in an age of near omnipresent and approaching omnipotent surveillance, they are screwing with DNA, the government has acknowledged UFO's, phenomenon like the Hum and Sky Quakes are being reported worldwide, we live in a pandemic for which we will need never ending vaccinations, so is it really out of the realm of reason that Lance could be an actor? I've looked for research papers from him and I've found maybe three to four. None of them are overly technical and mainly deal with AI and the law and ethics. That's strange. But before we dive further, I will concede the possibility that there is a Lance B Eliot, but I'm adamant that the articles and books are written by AI. No doubt in my mind, and by the time this post is done, you'll wonder what's really going on as well.
Let's start with his name. Something about it grabbed my attention, as it did for others. I can't speak for them, but I remember just looking at it suddenly thinking, is that an anagram?
u/agelesseverytime • Lance B Eliot is an anagram for antebellico - prewar.
u/WhiteRabbitCaveCA also sent me the same anagram.
Hidden in plain sight. But it's still a chess game. Your moves have to be deceptive and you need to look ahead a minimum of three moves. And all moves have multiple moves. Does this mean that the anagram doesn't apply? No. It does. And it points to the ability of having meaning hidden in meaning, all in the open.
Now I will caution you, this post will be somewhat open-ended. I haven't been able to find anything definitive that could point to a possible origin of what I believe to be Lance B Eliot, yet those breadcrumbs do lead to loaves of bread, so to speak.
So when I was sent the other YouTube link with Lance as a speaker, I looked around the web again. I had already found what I thought was a very strong link, but now the video threw a monkey wrench into my plans.
This is what else I found when I Googled articles by Lance B Eliot. Eliot Weinman, executive editor of AI Trends, where AI Eliot seems to get published a lot. Relax, it's not just the name coincidence. It's also this:

Curiosity as a Core Cognitive Capability for Self-Driving Cars. By Eliot Weinman. aitrends.com — By Dr. Lance B. Eliot, the AI Trends Insider. • I live in a gated community that has a main gate for residents and guests, and provides an impressive driving entrance into the neighborhood that displays ornate iron gates and a spectacular water-sprouting fountain. There is a secondary gate at the back of the community.

And then.

President Trump Will Sign an Executive Order Promoting AI. By Eliot Weinman • aitrends.com — President Trump is expected to sign an executive order on Monday meant to spur the development and regulation of artificial intelligence, technology that many experts believe will define the future of everything from consumer products to health care to warfare.

Source Here
There is another example there, but this will suffice. So why is Lance B Eliot being headlined by Eliot Weinman? Doesn't make sense, does it? And what is muckrack.com?

Say hello to your one-stop, relationship-building platform and goodbye to outdated media databases: Muck Rack’s search engine lets you discover and pitch relevant journalists in a much more targeted way than legacy media databases.

Ok. Now usually top ranking scientists don't belong to an organization that is meant to find journalists paying work. Why would they? And why would a guy who has started multiple companies, is a CEO of Techbrium - and speaking of which, check out the website, powered by godaddy? Seriously? It doesn’t list any employees, no detailed company history, and while it does have job openings, it seems off. So I Googled mapped Techbrium, and guess what, no results found. Ok. Gotcha. Must be the New Normal GPS malfunctioning, right? SMH.
Back to Eliot Weinman. Let me show you what he belongs to: Founder and Conference Chair, AI World & AI World Government (brought to you by the Cambridge Institute). Uhm. Keep Calm and Carry On? Don't Worry be Happy? And, Eliot Weinman is the GM and Founder at Cambridge Innovation Institute. Also, Eliot Weinman has had 1 past job as the President, Events and Publishing at Yankee Group. And. Research firm Yankee Group has acquired digital media and technology research and events firm Trendsmedia. The acquisition will “accelerate Yankee’s growth and expand its reach in global connectivity issues, helping network builders, operators and users navigate revolutionary change”, whatever that means. And when I clicked on trendsmedia, it led me to a clickfunnel company. And when I clicked on Yankees group, it was owned by 451 Research, which is owned by S&P Global Inc. (prior to April 2016 McGraw Hill Financial, Inc., and prior to 2013 McGraw-Hill Companies) is an American publicly traded corporation headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Its primary areas of business are financial information and analytics. It is the parent company of S&P Global Ratings, S&P Global Market Intelligence, and S&P Global Platts, CRISIL, and is the majority owner of the S&P Dow Jones Indices joint venture. "S&P" is a shortening of "Standard and Poor's". Cool, right. Now what? Glad you asked. S&P is into four different segments.
S&P Global RatingsEdit • S&P Global Ratings provides independent investment research including ratings on various investment instruments.
S&P Global Market IntelligenceEdit • S&P Global Market Intelligence is a provider of multi-asset class and real-time data, research, news and analytics to institutional investors, investment and commercial banks, investment advisors and wealth managers, corporations, and universities. Subsidiaries include Leveraged Commentary & Data.
S&P Dow Jones IndicesEdit • Launched on July 2, 2012, S&P Dow Jones Indices is the world's largest global resource for index-based concepts, data, and research. It produces the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.[20][21] S&P Dow Jones Indices calculates over 830,000 indices, publishes benchmarks that provide the basis for 575 ETFs globally with $387 billion in assets invested, and serves as the DNA for $1.5 trillion of the world's indexed assets.
S&P Global PlattsEdit • Headquartered in London, S&P Global Platts is a provider of information and a source of benchmark price assessments for the commodities, energy, petrochemicals, metals, and agriculture markets. It has offices in more than 15 cities, including major energy centres such as London, Dubai, Singapore, and Houston, and international business centres such as São Paulo, Shanghai, and New York City.
Ok. So what? So this. The McGraws and the George W. Bush family have close ties dating back several generations. Harold McGraw Jr. (deceased) was a member of the national grant advisory and founding board of the Barbara Bush Foundation for Family Literacy. Source Here
And who is the President and chief executive officer of S&P? Douglas L. Peterson. And what else does he do? Peterson is co-chair of the Bipartisan Policy Centers’ Executive Council on Infrastructure, and advocates for public-private sector partnerships as a means of improving infrastructure in the US.[23] For the World Economic Forum, Peterson is Co-Chair of the Stewardship Board of the Platform for Shaping the Future of Cities, Infrastructure and Urban Services; a Member of the International Business Council; and Governor of the Financial Services Industry Community. Peterson is also a boardmember of National Bureau of Economic Research, and the US-China Business Council. Peterson is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee.
Basically a Conspiracy Theorist's Doomscrolling dream job, am I right?
WEF • Who are behind the Great Reset (later post coming soon), and to quote Prince Charles speaking (virtually, of course SMH) at the World Economic Forum, "We have a golden opportunity to seize something good from this crisis - its unprecedented shockwaves may well make people more receptive to big visions of change," said Prince Charles at the meeting, adding later, "It is an opportunity we have never had before and may never have again." Source Here
Great. Perfect. Crisis. Reaction. Solution.
CFR • The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), founded in 1921, is a United States nonprofit think tank specializing in U.S. foreign policy and international affairs. It is headquartered in New York City, with an additional office in Washington, D.C. Its membership, which numbers 4,900, has included senior politicians, more than a dozen secretaries of state, CIA directors, bankers, lawyers, professors, and senior media figures. Currently it has, • David M. Rubenstein (Chairman) – Cofounder and Co-Chief Executive Officer, The Carlyle Group. • Jami Miscik (Vice Chairman) She currently serves on the boards of EMC Corporation, In-Q-Tel and the American Ditchley Foundation, and is a member of the President's Intelligence Advisory Board. Before entering the private sector, she had a twenty-year career as an intelligence officer, including a stint as the Central Intelligence Agency's Deputy Director for Intelligence (2002–2005), and as the Director for Intelligence Programs at the National Security Council (1995–1996). • Thad W. Allen − Senior Executive Advisor, Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. • Laurence D. Fink – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer BlackRock. There are more, but you get it. And let's just top it off with, CFR has published the bi-monthly journal Foreign Affairs since 1922, and runs the David Rockefeller Studies Program, which influences foreign policy by making recommendations to the presidential administration and diplomatic community, testifying before Congress, interacting with the media, and publishing on foreign policy issues.
And you may have noticed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which insures banks from going bankrupt. Yikes. Hopefully we don't have a cybersecurity attack on our banking systems. Maybe we should use Coalfire?
OK, are you confused, me too. Let's recap.

BGG RECAP!

Lance B Eliot shares article ownership with Eliot Weinman on muckrack.com, which was published on AI Trends. Eliot Weinman is the executive director AI World and AI World Government. Trends Media was also bought by the Yankees Group, where Eliot Weinman is the President. And when I clicked on the Yankess group, it was owned by 451 Research, which was owned by S&P, which was started by friends of George Bush, who belonged to the Carlyle Group, which has a co-executive on the CFR, and Douglas Peterson is a member of the CFR and the WEF, while aslo running S&P.
Simple, right. Now, remember two things, Eliot Weinman seems to be associated with Lance B Eliot, and Lance is constantly produces articles about AI and business, while S&P has is all about business. Let's go.

Lance the Prequel.

So when I first found Lance, I started to ponder different anagrams. Why? Well, his last name. One guy who works for me is named Elliot, and Eliot stood out for the different spelling. After repeating a mantra of Eliot for a while, I stopped.
Eliot. ElIOT. elIoT. IoT. Internet of Things. It had to be me looking for a pattern. HAD TO BE. Then I looked at the name again. The end was possible, so I looked at his first name. I repeated the same mantra, letting my unconscious do the work. And sure enough, it hit me again. Lance. LANce. LAN. Local Area Network. No. Effing. Way. Come on. LAN + IoT = Local Area Network of Internet of Things. Ok. It adds up. Makes sense. I don't know how, but it does. Yet that still left me with the rest of his name.
CEBEL. Whelp, the mantra didn't help, it was time to dig. And dig I did. And found nothing. Well a couple of things, and one I thought that I was stretching logic too far, and the other, maybe not. Because it led me to OMG’s Artificial Intelligence Platform Task Force. A co-chair was Claude Baudoin, who has a company called cébé IT & Knowledge Management. And I almost went with it, and then something said NO. It was a gut feeling that I was wrong. There was no L in the company name. So I started digging all over again. And it wasn't easy. It took forever. It didn’t make sense. At all. I couldn't find anything that was an exact match. And then I saw this.

Thomas Siebel's software company C3IoT raised about $100 million from private equity investors in January 2018, at a $1.5 billion valuation. Today, C3.ai is focused on enterprise AI, but it started as a clean energy firm. It was briefly named C3IoT in 2016 to chase the IoT market. Siebel was a salesman at Oracle. He left in 1990, built software firm Siebel Systems and sold it to Oracle for $5.8 billion in cash and stock in 2006. Forbes

And he was attacked by an Elephant.
(DID YOU KNOW. Siebel was attacked by an elephant on a 2009 safari trip in Serengeti; he barely escaped death and has undergone 19 reconstructive surgeries. Maybe the animal kingdom was defending the planet?)
It was briefly named C3IoT. But the first program was sold to Oracle and • Oracle Siebel CRM is a sales force automation (SFA) and customer relationship management solution designed to assist enterprises to manage their customer experiences. It includes a range of sales, marketing and customer service applications tailored to various industries • focuses on businesses. Much like a lot of Lances articles. And Thomas Siebel's software • C3.ai is a leading enterprise AI software provider for accelerating digital transformation. The proven C3 AI Suite provides comprehensive services to build enterprise-scale AI applications more efficiently and cost-effectively than alternative approaches • advances AI to accelerate digital transformation, just like AI World Government, which is owned by Eliot Weinman. Is Cebel a play on Siebel? It sure seems like it to me.
And Thomas also has this to say.
High: What inning of the game do you believe we are in from an AI perspective, and how is that likely to develop going forward? Siebel: Julius Caesar considered Gaul as being divided into three parts, and I believe AI is divided into three parts.
1• Artificial general intelligence, which includes projects such as Google DeepMind. Here, the attempt is to build computers that have equal or greater intelligence as human beings. This gets to the malicious killer robots and the refrigerator that takes over your household theory, but I do not believe we need to worry about that in our lifetimes;
2• Social media systems. Here, social media vendors are using AI extremely effectively to manipulate people at the level of the limbic brain. I believe this is malevolent, and what we are seeing in social media is concerning. People are acting as servers to the computer instead of the opposite;
3• The application of AI to commercial, industrial, and government systems, which is where we play at C3.ai. This is building prediction to identify fraud, efficiency to the supply chain, and predictive maintenance for devices in the digital oilfields, the smart grid, the manufacturing industry, agricultural equipment, and precision health. This is about using AI to lower the cost of production and to deliver products and services with greater safety, with greater cybersecurity, and with lower environmental impact.
Hmmm. It's starting to sound like my posts, isn't it? Yet he's not worried about killer robots, yet social media manipulation, that's a problem. But I can bet you all the tea that's left in China, those words shouldn't be taken at Facebook value.
High: You have referred to there being a war with China based on artificial intelligence, and you have referenced how Vladimir Putin said the country that wins in AI will ultimately win in the world. As a citizen of the U.S., what do you think about this? How optimistic are you about the state’s ability to lead and the extent to which it is appropriate language? Siebel: This is a crucial topic. As you mentioned, in 2017, Vladimir Putin said, “Whoever wins the war in AI will be the ruler of the world.” I believe that is true, but I do not believe Russia will win. It is either going to be China or the U.S. I believe we are currently in a state of non-kinetic warfare with China. It is well-documented how great Russia and China are at infiltrating our power grid infrastructure, infiltrating our financial system infrastructure, and implanting viruses, bots, and malware so they can remotely turn off the grid. There are well-documented incidents where the Chinese have penetrated, say, the United States Office of Personnel Management and stolen the personnel records of up to 21 million people. This includes anyone who has ever applied for or been granted a security clearance. If this is not war, what is it? If you read the 13th five-year plan, it is extremely clear what they are doing. They are investing tens of billions of dollars a year in AI to win this battle and to dominate the use of AI for the purposes of defense and conducting warfare. In many ways, this is a test of two fundamentally opposed political philosophies. In the case of China, there is a totalitarian state with a top-down command and control economy where the NRDC writes the 13th five-year plan, invests billions of dollars, and mandates that this happens. They are extremely bright, competent, and educated, and they are hard at work. In the United States, we have a much messier process with a free-market economy and a capitalist system. Innovation does not take place from a top-down command and control government-mandated system, but in garages in Palo Alto and storefronts in theNew York. I do not know which system is going to win, but this is going to be the ultimate test of these political philosophies. This is not a war we want to lose, the stakes could not be higher, and it is game on.
And then.
High: What role do you see the government playing in all this versus private industries, and how do you see the balance between the two? Siebel: The people who work in the Pentagon are exceptionally bright and well educated. These scholar statesman warriors are not asleep at the switch, and they are adopting AI in many ways to prove the efficiency of the Department of Defense. As it relates to AI, the U.S. is going to advance through a free market economy, entrepreneurship, and through the creativity of individuals who are unbridled by the constraints of the stage. This system has always worked out for us in the past, and hopefully, it will continue to. If it does not, we are going to have a problem. Source Here
Game on. If it doesn't work, there's a problem, because we're in a war with China, and the Pentagon states that the war will be fought in abrupt climate change which will cause drought and famine in China. And I've said it before, but the social discord and the riots, will be blamed on Russia and/or China. And maybe they are to blame. Who knows, because we have to trust our New Normal World Order narrative as it's filtered with fact checks and fake news, while the surveillance system makes sure we are safe from physical threats through AI data mining, and incorporating AI through the Great Reset, which apparently China has to get on board with. Uhm, and people are having a hard time believing that our world is about to get turned upside down? Really? Has the desensitization been that effective that everyone is numb? Short answer, pretty much.

BGG Final Words

NEW YORK (PRWEB) JANUARY 11, 2018 • Though various forms of artificial intelligence and machine learning have existed for nearly 60 years, it is only recently that this field of computing has developed to a level of accessibility that truly allows businesses to leverage this innovative technology. There are no blanket solutions in technological transformations. Artificial intelligence is no exception. Mediaplanet’s Cognitive Technology campaign, created in partnership with Melinda Gates, the World Economic Forum and Microsoft, will serve as an educational guidebook for business leaders to understand how to obtain the maximum benefits from cognitive technologies within their market —using artificial intelligence to improve employee workflow and efficiency, reshape customer experiences and take risk and fraud protection to the next level. This program was made possible with the support of Melinda Gates, the World Economic Forum’s Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, Microsoft, the National Security Agency, the National Retail Federation, Eliot Weinman, the Cognitive Computing Consortium, SCIP, AMT, HSBC, Forgerock, Feedzai, LogMeIn, Cognicor, Omron, The Nerdery and The Savo Group. Source Here

Hey! Look, NSA, Melinda "I hoarded food in my basement because I know how privileged we are" Gates, WEF, and Eliot Weinman. And his AI World Government did this press release.
According to Nguyen Anh Tuan, CEO of the Boston Global Forum (BGF), “We have been collaborating with Mr. Weinman and his team at AI World throughout 2018 to support the event as an International Host. We have several activities already underway at AI World 2018, and will continue our strategic alliance for all AI World 2019 events. We will present an AI-Government model at AI World Government.” Source Here
Do you want Skynet Eliot, cause this is how you get Skynet.
But maybe I'm suffering mass psychogenic delusions from Doomscrolling looking for mass surveillance examples and an upcoming war before environmental collapse. Maybe? Possible? Let's look and see if I'm justified in my paranoia.
Lance B Eliot • Neanderthal and AI. Source Here • Could the acrimonious polarization in society today be simply due to chance alone, or might we be divided amongst ourselves by inherited Neanderthal DNA that has been triggered in recent times? Let’s hope that we can find a means to overcome the polarization, else we might become an extinct species and then, down the road, perhaps some surviving all-knowing AI might look back one day and snicker that we were ultimately and unknowingly doomed by our Neanderthal forerunners.
You're gonna trigger me, you AI loving Neanderthal monster. Doesn't that sound crazy? Read the article and then tell me that it was written by a human (not that anyone has, it's just a figure of speech).

May 21, 2016 • As you can see, it seems like we managed to avert what could have been a massive economic crisis in the 2008-2009 time frame, and entered into what Mohamed in his 2010 Per Jacobsson lecture referred to as the “new normal” (now widely popularized). We have been somewhat languishing in this new normal and are seemingly trying to just keep ourselves in the new normal, sometimes now referred to as the new new normal. Believing that we are nearing the T-junction, the Figure 1 shows that we are upon a pivot point, perhaps in just the next 2-3 years, and will then swing either toward the boom or the doom, of which the Mohamed as odds-maker suggests are equally likely (50/50 chance). Source Here

Pivot? Boom or Doom? Thank God we don't have any pivots happening.

Obama, 2012, Pivot to Asia • There has been strong perception from China that all of these are part of US' China containment policy.[4] Proponents of this theory claim that the United States needs a weak, divided China to continue its hegemony in Asia. This is accomplished, the theory claims, by the United States establishing military, economic, and diplomatic ties with countries adjacent to China's borders.

Aw crap. Pandemic. The Great Reset. Fourth Industrial Revolution. World Economic Forum. AI World Government. Pivot. Boom or Doom. Pivot to Asia.
All good. Keep Calm and Carry On. There is nothing to fear, but fear itself, and environmental collapse, WW3, AI, Killer Robots, Big Brother, Pandemic, Economic Collapse, Asteroids,^1. Magnetic Field Weakening, Famine, and Animal Mass Mortality Events. It's game on. Boom or Doom time. Cats and Dogs living together. Neanderthals worshipping AI. All the worst parts out of the Bible, except we don't get turned to salt. I hope. 2020 isn't over yet. And it probably won't be over in 2021, or 2023, or, 2030. After all, the agenda runs until 2030, doesn’t it?
So is Thomas Siebel and Oracle Siebel Systems supposed to be a homonym for Cebel? Is Eliot Weinman involved somehow, or is it just a coincidence. Is Lance B Eliot gonna be AI President of the Techncracy? Just keep paying attention and stay aware. We might not what is happening, but we know something is, and possibly hidden actors involved in all of it.
Heads up and eyes open. This hasn't even started yet. Talk soon and take care.
^1. Trust me, u/arctic-gold-digger was right on the money about space rocks, and I'll show you why in a few posts. And also, thanks to u/WhiteRabbitCaveCA as well as u/UFOS-ARE-DEMONIC The extra dots being connected were a massive help.

Using Change% to Quantify Batter Clutchness

What a USL D1 league might look like

TL;DR: Man with too much time on his hands goes deep down the rabbit hole on a concept this sub already didn’t seem that enthusiastic about. If you really want to skip ahead, CTRL+F “verdict” and it’ll get you there.
Two days ago, u/MrPhillyj2wns made a post asking whether USL should launch a D1 league in order to compete in Concacaf. From the top voted replies, it appears this made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.
But I’ve been at home for eight weeks and I am terribly, terribly bored.
So, I present to you this overview of what the USL pyramid might look like if Jake Edwards got a head of steam and attempted to establish a USSF-sanctioned first division. This is by no means an endorsement of such a proposal or even a suggestion that USL SHOULD do such a thing. It is merely an examination of whether they COULD.
Welcome to the ~~Thunderdome~~ USL Premiership
First, there are some base-level assumptions we must make in this exercise, because it makes me feel more scientific and not like a guy who wrote this on Sunday while watching the Belarusian Premier League (Go BATE Borisov!).

All D1 teams must comply with known USSF requirements for D1 leagues (more on that later).
MLS, not liking this move, will immediately remove all directly-owned affiliate clubs from the USL structure (this does not include hybrid ownerships, like San Antonio FC – NYCFC). This removes all MLS2 teams but will not affect Colorado Springs, Reno, RGVFC and San Antonio.
The USL will attempt to maintain both the USL Championship and USL League One, with an eventual mind toward creating the pro/rel paradise that is promised in Relegations 3:16.
All of my research regarding facility size and ownership net worth is correct – this is probably the biggest leap of faith we have to make, since googling “NAME net worth” and “CITY richest people” doesn’t seem guaranteed to return accurate results.
The most a club can increase its available seating capacity to meet D1 requirements in a current stadium is no more than 1,500 seats (10% of the required 15,000). If they need to add more, they’ll need a new facility.
Let’s pretend that people are VERY willing to sell. It’s commonly acknowledged that the USL is a more financially feasible route to owning a soccer club than in MLS (c.f. MLS-Charlotte’s reported $325 million expansion fee) and the USSF has some very strict requirements for D1 sanctioning. It becomes pretty apparent when googling a lot of team’s owners that this requirement isn’t met, so let’s assume everyone that can’t sells to people who meet the requirements.

(Known) USSF D1 league requirements:
- League must have 12 teams to apply and 14 teams by year three
- Majority owner must have a net worth of $40 million, and the ownership group must have a total net worth of $70 million. The value of an owned stadium is not considered when calculating this value.
- Must have teams located in the Eastern, Central and Pacific time zones
- 75% of league’s teams must be based in markets with at a metro population of at least 1 million people.
- All league stadiums must have a capacity of at least 15,000
The ideal club candidate for the USL Premiership will meet the population and capacity requirements in its current ground, which will have a grass playing surface. Of the USL Championship’s 27 independent/hybrid affiliate clubs, I did not find one club that meets all these criteria as they currently stand.
Regarding turf fields, the USSF does not have a formal policy regarding the ideal playing surface but it is generally acknowledged that grass is superior to turf. 6 of 26 MLS stadiums utilize turf, or roughly 23% of stadiums. We’ll hold a similar restriction for our top flight, so 2-3 of our top flight clubs can have turf fields. Seem fair?
Capacity is going to be the biggest issue, since the disparity between current requirements for the second-tier (5,000) and the first tier (15,000) is a pretty massive gap. Nice club you have there, triple your capacity and you’re onto something. As a result, I have taken the liberty of relocating certain (read: nearly all) clubs to new grounds, trying my utmost to keep those clubs in their current markets and –importantly--, ensure they play on grass surfaces.
So, let’s do a case-by-case evaluation and see if we can put together 12-14 teams that meet the potential requirements, because what else do you have to do?
For each club’s breakdown, anything that represents a chance from what is currently true will be underlined.
Candidate: Birmingham Legion FC
Location (Metro population): Birmingham, Ala. (1,151,801)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Legion Field (FieldTurf, 71,594)
Potential owner: Stephens Family (reported net worth $4 billion)
Notes: Birmingham has a pretty strong candidacy. Having ditched the 5,000-seater BBVA Field for Legion Field, which sits 2.4 miles away, they’ve tapped into the city’s soccer history. Legion Field hosted portions of both the men’s and women’s tournaments at the 1996 Olympics, including a 3-1 U.S. loss to Argentina that saw 83,183 pack the house. The Harbert family seemed like strong ownership contenders, but since the death of matriarch Marguerite Harbert in 2015, it’s unclear where the wealth in the family is concentrated, so the Stephens seem like a better candidate. The only real knock that I can think of is that we really want to avoid having clubs play on turf, so I’d say they’re on the bubble of our platonic ideal USL Prem.
Candidate: Charleston Battery
Location (Metro population): Charleston, S.C. (713,000)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Johnson Hagood Stadium (Grass, ~14,700)
Potential owner: Anita Zucker (reported net worth $3 billion)
Notes: Charleston’s candidacy isn’t looking great. Already disadvantaged due to its undersized metro population, a move across the Cooper River to Johnson Hagood Stadium is cutting it close in terms of capacity. The stadium, home to The Citadel’s football team, used to seat 21,000, before 9,300 seats on the eastern grandstand were torn down in 2017 to deal with lead paint that had been used in their construction. Renovation plans include adding 3,000 seats back in, which could hit 15,000 if they bumped it to 3,300, but throw in a required sale by HCFC, LLC (led by content-creation platform founder Rob Salvatore) to chemical magnate Anita Zucker, and you’ll see there’s a lot of ifs and ands in this proposal.
Candidate: Charlotte Independence
Location (Metro population): Charlotte, N.C. (2,569, 213)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Jerry Richardson Stadium (Turf, 15,314)
Potential owner: James Goodnight (reported net worth $9.1 billion)
Notes: Charlotte ticks a lot of the boxes. A move from the Sportsplex at Matthews to UNC-Charlotte’s Jerry Richardson stadium meets capacity requirements, but puts them on to the dreaded turf. Regrettably, nearby American Legion Memorial Stadium only seats 10,500, despite a grass playing surface. With a sizeable metro population (sixth-largest in the USL Championship) and a possible owner in software billionaire James Goodnight, you’ve got some options here. The biggest problem likely lies in direct competition for market share against a much better-funded MLS Charlotte side due to join the league in 2021.
Candidate: Hartford Athletic
Location (Metro population): Hartford, Conn. (1,214,295)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Pratt & Whitney Stadium (Grass, 38,066)
Potential owner: Ray Dalio (reported net worth $18.4 billion)
Notes: Okay, I cheated a bit here, having to relocate Hartford to Pratt & Whitney Stadium, which is technically in East Hartford, Conn. I don’t know enough about the area to know if there’s some kind of massive beef between the two cities, but the club has history there, having played seven games in 2019 while Dillon Stadium underwent renovations. If the group of local businessmen that currently own the club manage to attract Dalio to the table, we’re on to something.
Candidate: Indy Eleven
Location (Metro population): Indianapolis, Ind. (2,048,703)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Lucas Oil Stadium (Turf, 62,421)
Potential owner: Jim Irsay (reported net worth of $3 billion)
Notes: Indy Eleven are a club that are SO CLOSE to being an ideal candidate – if it weren’t for Lucas Oil Stadium’s turf playing surface. Still, there’s a lot to like in this bid. I’m not going to lie, I have no idea what current owner and founder Ersal Ozdemir is worth, but it seems like there might be cause for concern. A sale to Irsay, who also owns the NFL Indianapolis (nee Baltimore) Colts, seems likely to keep the franchise there, rather than make a half-mile move to 14,230 capacity Victory Field where the AAA Indianapolis Indians play and expand from there.
Candidate: Louisville City FC
Location (Metro population): Louisville, Ky. (1,297,310)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Lynn Family Stadium (Grass, 14,000, possibly expandable to 20,000)
Potential owner: Wayne Hughes (reported net worth $2.8 billion)
Notes: I’m stretching things a bit here. Lynn Family stadium is currently listed as having 11,700 capacity that’s expandable to 14,000, but they’ve said that the ground could hold as many as 20,000 with additional construction, which might be enough to grant them a temporary waiver from USSF. If the stadium is a no-go, then there’s always Cardinal Stadium, home to the University of Louisville’s football team, which seats 65,000 but is turf. Either way, it seems like a sale to someone like Public Storage founder Wayne Hughes will be necessary to ensure the club has enough capital.
Candidate: Memphis 901 FC
Location (Metro population): Memphis, Tenn. (1,348,260)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Liberty Bowl Stadium (Turf, 58,325)
Potential owner: Fred Smith (reported net worth $3 billion)
Notes: Unfortunately for Memphis, AutoZone Park’s 10,000 seats won’t cut it at the D1 level. With its urban location, it would likely prove tough to renovate, as well. Liberty Bowl Stadium more than meets the need, but will involve the use of the dreaded turf. As far as an owner goes, FedEx founder Fred Smith seems like a good local option.
Candidate: Miami FC, “The”
Location (Metro population): Miami, Fla. (6,158,824)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Riccardo Silva Stadium (FieldTurf, 20,000)
Potential owner: Riccardo Silva (reported net worth $1 billion)
Notes: Well, well, well, Silva might get his wish for top-flight soccer, after all. He’s got the money, he’s got the metro, and his ground has the capacity. There is the nagging issue of the turf, though. Hard Rock Stadium might present a solution, including a capacity of 64,767 and a grass playing surface. It is worth noting, however, that this is the first profile where I didn’t have to find a new potential owner for a club.
Candidate: North Carolina FC
Location (Metro population): Durham, N.C. (1,214,516 in The Triangle)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Carter-Finley Stadium (Grass/Turf, 57,583)
Potential owner: Steve Malik (precise net worth unknown) / Dennis Gillings (reported net worth of $1.7 billion)
Notes: We have our first “relocation” in North Carolina FC, who were forced to trade Cary’s 10,000-seat WakeMed Soccer Park for Carter-Finley Stadium in Durham, home of the NC State Wolfpack and 57,583 of their closest friends. The move is a whopping 3.1 miles, thanks to the close-knit hub that exists between Cary, Durham and Raleigh. Carter-Finley might be my favorite of the stadium moves in this exercise. The field is grass, but the sidelines are artificial turf. Weird, right? Either way, it was good enough for Juventus to play a friendly against Chivas de Guadalajara there in 2011. Maybe the move would be pushed for by new owner and medical magnate Dennis Gillings, whose British roots might inspire him to get involved in the Beautiful Game. Straight up, though, I couldn’t find a net worth for current owner Steve Malik, though he did sell his company MedFusion for $91 million in 2010, then bought it back for an undisclosed amount and sold it again for $43 million last November. I don’t know if Malik has the juice to meet D1 requirements, but I suspect he’s close.
Candidate: Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Location (Metro population): Pittsburgh, Penn. (2,362,453)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Heinz Field (Grass, 64,450)
Potential owner: Henry Hillman (reported net worth $2.5 billion)
Notes: I don’t know a ton about the Riverhounds, but this move in particular feels like depriving a pretty blue-collar club from its roots. Highmark Stadium is a no-go from a seating perspective, but the Steelers’ home stadium at Heinz Field would more than meet the requirements and have a grass surface that was large enough to be sanctioned for a FIFA friendly between the U.S. WNT and Costa Rica in 2015. As for an owner, Tuffy Shallenberger (first ballot owner name HOF) doesn’t seem to fit the USSF bill, but legendary Pittsburgh industrialist Henry Hillman might. I’m sure you’re asking, why not the Rooney Family, if they’ll play at Heinz Field? I’ll tell you: I honestly can’t seem to pin down a value for the family. The Steelers are valued at a little over a billion and rumors persist that Dan Rooney is worth $500 million, but I’m not sure. I guess the Rooneys would work too, but it’s a definite departure from an owner in Shallenberger who was described by one journalist as a guy who “wears boots, jeans, a sweater and a trucker hat.”
Candidate: Saint Louis FC
Location (Metro population): St. Louis, Mo. (2,807,338)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Busch Stadium (Grass, 45,494)
Potential owner: William DeWitt Jr. (reported net worth $4 billion)
Notes: Saint Louis has some weirdness in making the jump to D1. Current CEO Jim Kavanaugh is an owner of the MLS side that will begin play in 2022. The club’s current ground at West Community Stadium isn’t big enough, but perhaps a timely sale to Cardinals owner William DeWitt Jr. could see the club playing games at Busch Stadium, which has a well established history of hosting other sports like hockey, college football and soccer (most recently a U.S. WNT friendly against New Zealand in 2019). The competition with another MLS franchise wouldn’t be ideal, like Charlotte, but with a big enough population and cross marketing from the Cardinals, maybe there’s a winner here. Wacko idea: If Busch doesn’t pan out, send them to The Dome. Sure, it’s a 60k turf closed-in stadium, but we can go for that retro NASL feel and pay homage to our nation’s soccer history.
Candidate: Tampa Bay Rowdies
Location (Metro population): Tampa, Fla. (3,068,511)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Raymond James Stadium (Grass, 65,518)
Potential owner: Edward DeBartolo Jr. (reported net worth $3 billion)
Notes: This one makes me sad. Despite having never been there, I see Al Lang Stadium as an iconic part of the Rowdies experience. Current owner Bill Edwards proposed an expansion to 18,000 seats in 2016, but the move seems to have stalled out. Frustrated with the city’s lack of action, Edwards sells to one-time San Francisco 49ers owner Edward DeBartolo Jr., who uses his old NFL connections to secure a cushy lease at the home of the Buccaneers in Ray Jay, the site of a 3-1 thrashing of Antigua and Barbuda during the United States’ 2014 World Cup Qualifying campaign.
Breather. Hey, we finished the Eastern Conference teams. Why are you still reading this? Why am I still writing it? Time is a meaningless construct in 2020 my friends, we are adrift in the void, fueled only by brief flashes of what once was and what may yet still be.
Candidate: Austin Bold FC
Location (Metro population): Austin, Texas (2,168,316)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Darrel K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf, 95,594)
Potential owner: Michael Dell (reported net worth of $32.3 billion)
Notes: Anthony Precourt’s Austin FC has some unexpected competition and it comes in the form of tech magnate Michael Dell. Dell, were he to buy the club, would be one of the richest owners on our list and could flash his cash in the new first division. Would he have enough to convince Darrel K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium (I’m not kidding, that’s its actual name) to go back to a grass surface, like it did from ’96-’08? That’s between Dell and nearly 100,000 UT football fans, but everything can be had for the right price.
Candidate: Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Location (Metro population): Colorado Springs, Colo. (738,939)
Time zone: Mountain
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Falcon Stadium (FieldTurf, 46,692)
Potential owner: Charles Ergen (reported net worth $10.8 billion)
Notes: Welcome to Colorado Springs. We have hurdles. For the first time in 12 candidates, we’re back below the desired 1 million metro population mark. Colorado Springs actually plans to build a $35 million, 8,000 seat venue downtown that will be perfect for soccer, but in our timeline that’s 7,000 seats short. Enter Falcon Stadium, home of the Air Force Academy Falcons football team. Seems perfect except for the turf, right? Well, the tricky thing is that Falcon Stadium is technically on an active military base and is (I believe) government property. Challenges to getting in and out of the ground aside, the military tends to have a pretty grim view of government property being used by for-profit enterprises. Maybe Charles Ergen, founder and chairman of Dish Network, would be able to grease the right wheels, but you can go ahead and throw this into the “doubtful” category. It’s a shame, too. 6,035 feet of elevation is one hell of a home-field advantage.
Candidate: El Paso Locomotive FC
Location: El Paso, Texas
Time zone: Mountain
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Sun Bowl (FieldTurf, 51,500)
Potential owner: Paul Foster (reported net worth $1.7 billion)
Notes: God bless Texas. When compiling this list, I found so many of the theoretical stadium replacements were nearly serviceable by high school football fields. That’s insane, right? Anyway, Locomotive don’t have to settle for one of those, they’ve got the Sun Bowl, which had its capacity reduced in 2001 to a paltry 51,500 (from 52,000) specifically to accommodate soccer. Sure, it’s a turf surface, but what does new owner Paul Foster (who is only the 1,477th wealthiest man in the world, per Forbes) care, he’s got a team in a top league. Side note: Did you know that the Sun Bowl college football game is officially, through sponsorship, the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl? Why is it not the Frosted Flakes Sun Bowl? Why is the cereal mascot the promotional name of the football game? What are you doing, Kellogg’s?
Candidate: Las Vegas Lights FC
Location: Las Vegas, Nev. (2,227,053)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Allegiant Stadium (Grass, 61,000)
Potential owner: Sheldon Adelson (reported net worth $37.7 billion)
Notes: Sin City. You had to know that the club that once signed Freddy Adu because “why not” was going to go all out in our flashy hypothetical proposal. Thanks to my narrative control of this whole thing, they have. Adelson is the second-richest owner in the league and has decided to do everything first class. That includes using the new Raiders stadium in nearby unincorporated Paradise, Nevada, and spending boatloads on high profile transfers. Zlatan is coming back to the U.S., confirmed.
Candidate: New Mexico United
Location: Albuquerque, N.M.
Time zone: Mountain
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Isotopes Park – officially Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park (Grass, 13,500 – 15,000 with expansion)
Potential owner: Maloof Family (reported net worth $1 billion)
Notes: New Mexico from its inception went deep on the community vibe, and I’ve tried to replicate that in this bid. The home field of Rio Grande Cr---I’m not typing out the whole thing—Isotopes Park falls just within the expansion rules we set to make it to 15,000 (weird, right?) and they’ve found a great local ownership group in the Lebanese-American Maloof (formerly Maalouf) family from Las Vegas. The only thing to worry about would be the metro population, but overall, this could be one of the gems of USL Prem.
Candidate: Oklahoma City Energy FC
Location: Oklahoma City, Okla. (1,396,445)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Chickasaw Bricktown Ballpark (Grass, 13,066)
Potential owner: Harold Hamm (reported net worth $14.2 billion)
Notes: There’s a bright golden haze on the meadow and it says it’s time to change stadiums and owners to make it to D1. A sale to oil magnate Harold Hamm would give the club the finances it needs, but Chickasaw Bricktown Ballpark (home of the OKC Dodgers) actually falls outside of the boundary of what would meet capacity if 1,500 seats were added. Could the club pull off a move to Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma – home of the Oklahoma Sooners? Maybe, but at 20 miles, this would be a reach.
Candidate: Orange County SC
Location: Irvine, Calif. (3,176, 000 in Orange County)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Angels Stadium of Anaheim (Grass, 43,250)
Potential owner: Arte Moreno (reported net worth $3.3 billion)
Notes: You’ll never convince me that Rangers didn’t choose to partner with Orange County based primarily on its name. Either way, a sale to MLB Angels owner Arte Moreno produces a fruitful partnership, with the owner choosing to play his newest club out of the existing Angels stadium in OC. Another baseball conversion, sure, but with a metro population of over 3 million and the closest thing this hypothetical league has to an LA market, who’s complaining?
Candidate: Phoenix Rising FC
Location: Phoenix, Ariz. (4,857,962)
Time zone: Arizona
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): State Farm Stadium (Grass, 63,400)
Potential owner: Ernest Garcia II (reported net worth $5.7 billion)
Notes: We’re keeping it local with new owner and used car guru Ernest Garcia II. His dad owned a liquor store and he dropped out of college, which is making me feel amazing about my life choices right now. Casino Arizona Field is great, but State Farm Stadium is a grass surface that hosted the 2019 Gold Cup semifinal, so it’s a clear winner. Throw in Phoenix’s massive metro population and this one looks like a lock.
Candidate: Reno 1868 FC
Location: Reno, Nev. (425,417)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Mackay Stadium (FieldTurf, 30,000)
Potential owner: Nancy Walton Laurie (reported net worth $7.1 billion)
Notes: The Biggest Little City on Earth has some serious barriers to overcome, thanks to its low metro population. A sale to Walmart heiress Nancy Walton Laurie and 1.6 mile-move to Mackay Stadium to split space with the University of Nevada, Reno makes this bid competitive, but the turf surface is another knock against it.
Candidate: Rio Grande Valley FC
Location: Edinburg, Texas (900,304)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): McAllen Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf, 13,500 – 15,000 with expansion)
Potential owner: Alice Louise Walton (reported net worth $45 billion)
Notes: Yes, I have a second straight Walmart heiress on the list. She was the first thing that popped up when I googled “McAllen Texas richest people.” The family rivalry has spurred Walton to buy a club as well, moving them 10 miles to McAllen Memorial Stadium which, as I alluded to earlier, is a straight up high school football stadium with a full color scoreboard. Toss in an additional 1,500 seats and you’ve met the minimum, despite the turf playing surface.
Candidate: San Antonio FC
Location: San Antonio, Texas (2,550,960)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Alamodome (FieldTurf, 64,000)
Potential owner: Red McCombs (reported net worth $1.6 billion)
Notes: I wanted to keep SAFC in the Spurs family, since the franchise is valued at $1.8 billion. That said, I didn’t let the Rooneys own the Riverhounds based on the Steelers’ value and it felt wrong to change the rules, so bring on Clear Channel co-founder Red McCombs. Toyota Field isn’t viable in the first division, but for the Alamodome, which was built in 1993 in hopes of attracting an NFL franchise (and never did), San Antonio can finally claim having *a* national football league team in its town (contingent on your definition of football). Now if only we could do something about that turf…
Candidate: San Diego Loyal SC
Location: San Diego, Calif. (3,317,749)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): SDCCU Stadium (formerly Qualcomm) (Grass, 70,561)
Potential owner: Phil Mickelson (reported net worth $91 million)
Notes: Yes, golf’s Phil Mickelson. The existing ownership group didn’t seem to have the wherewithal to meet requirements, and Phil seemed to slot right in. As an athlete himself, he might be interesting in the new challenges of a top flight soccer team. Toss in a move to the former home of the chargers and you might have a basis for tremendous community support.
Candidate: FC Tulsa
Location: Tulsa, Okla. (991,561)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium (FieldTurf, 30,000)
Potential owner: George Kaiser ($10 billion)
Notes: I’m a fan of FC Tulsa’s rebrand, but if they want to make the first division, more changes are necessary. A sale to Tulsa native and one of the 100 richest men in the world George Kaiser means that funding is guaranteed. A move to Chapman Stadium would provide the necessary seats, despite the turf field. While the undersize population might be an issue at first glance, it’s hard to imagine U.S. Soccer not granting a waiver over a less than a 10k miss from the mark.
And that’s it! You made it. Those are all of the independent/hybrid affiliates in the USL Championship, which means that it’s time for our…
VERDICT: As an expert who has studied this issue for almost an entire day now, I am prepared to pronounce which USL Championships could be most ‘ready” for a jump to the USL Prem. A reminder that of the 27 clubs surveyed, 0 of them met our ideal criteria (proper ownership $, metro population, 15,000+ stadium with grass field).
Two of them, however, met almost all of those criteria: Indy Eleven and Miami FC. Those two clubs may use up two of our three available turf fields right from the outset, but the other factors they hit (particularly Silva’s ownership of Miami) makes them difficult, if not impossible to ignore for the top flight.
But who fill in the rest of the slots? Meet the entire 14-team USL Premier League:
Hartford Athletic
Indy Eleven
Louisville City FC
Miami FC
North Carolina FC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Saint Louis FC
San Antonio FC
New Mexico United
Phoenix Rising FC
Las Vegas Lights FC
Orange County SC
San Diego Loyal SC
Now, I shall provide my expert rationale for each club’s inclusion/exclusion, which can be roughly broken down into four categories.
Firm “yes”
Hartford Athletic: It’s a good market size with a solid stadium. With a decent investor and good community support, you’ve got potential here.
Indy Eleven: The turf at Lucas Oil Stadium is no reason to turn down a 62,421 venue and a metro population of over 2 million.
Louisville City FC: Why doesn’t the 2017 & 2018 USL Cup champion deserve a crack at the top flight? They have the market size, and with a bit of expansion have the stadium at their own SSS. LCFC, you’re in.
Miami FC, “The”: Our other blue-chip recruit on the basis of ownership value, market size and stadium capacity. Yes, that field is turf, but how could you snub Silva’s chance to claim victory as the first division 1 club soccer team to play in Miami?
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC: Pittsburgh sacrificed a lot to be here (according to my arbitrary calculations). Their market size and the potential boon of soccer at Heinz Field is an important inclusion to the league.
Saint Louis FC: Willie hears your “Busch League” jokes, Willie don’t care. A huge market size, combined with the absence of an NFL franchise creates opportunity. Competition with the MLS side, sure, but St. Louis has serious soccer history and we’re willing to bet it can support two clubs.
Tampa Bay Rowdies: With a huge population and a massive stadium waiting nearby, Tampa Bay seems like too good of an opportunity to pass up for the USL Prem.
Las Vegas Lights FC: Ostentatious, massive and well-financed, Las Vegas Lights FC is everything that the USL Premier League would need to assert that it didn’t intend to play second fiddle to MLS. Players will need to be kept on a short leash, but this is a hard market to pass up on.
Phoenix Rising FC: Huge population, big grass field available nearby and a solid history of success in recent years. No brainer.
San Diego Loyal SC: New club? Yes, massive population in a market that recently lost an absolutely huge sports presence? Also yes. This could be the USL Prem’s Seattle.
Cautious “yes”
New Mexico United: You have to take a chance on New Mexico United. The club set the league on fire with its social media presence and its weight in the community when it entered the league last season. The market may be slightly under USSF’s desired 1 million, but fervent support (and the ability to continue to use Isotopes Park) shouldn’t be discounted.
North Carolina FC: Carter-Finley’s mixed grass/turf surface is a barrier, to be sure, but the 57,000+ seats it offers (and being enough to offset other fully-turf offerings) is enough to put it in the black.
Orange County SC: It’s a top-tier club playing in a MLB stadium. I know it seems unlikely that USSF would approve something like that, but believe me when I say “it could happen.” Orange County is a massive market and California likely needs two clubs in the top flight.
San Antonio FC: Our third and only voluntary inclusion to the turf fields in the first division, we’re counting on San Antonio’s size and massive potential stadium to see it through.
Cautious “no”
Birmingham Legion FC: The town has solid soccer history and a huge potential venue, but the turf playing surface puts it on the outside looking in.
Memphis 901 FC: Like Birmingham, not much to dislike here outside of the turf playing surface at the larger playing venue.
Austin Bold FC: See the other two above.
FC Tulsa: Everything’s just a little bit off with this one. Market’s slightly too small, stadium has turf. Just not enough to put it over the top.
Firm “no”
Charleston Battery: Small metro and a small potential new stadium? It’s tough to say yes to the risk.
Charlotte Independence: A small new stadium and the possibility of having to compete with an organization that just paid over $300 million to join MLS means it’s best for this club to remain in the USL Championship.
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC: When a club’s best chance to meet a capacity requirement is to host games at a venue controlled by the military, that doesn’t speak well to a club’s chances.
El Paso Locomotive FC: An undersized market and a turf field that meets capacity requirements is the death knell for this one.
Oklahoma City Energy FC: Having to expand a baseball field to meet requirements is a bad start. Having to potentially play 20 miles away from your main market is even worse.
Reno 1868 FC: Population nearly a half-million short of the federation’s requirements AND a turf field at the hypothetical new stadium makes impossible to say yes to this bid.
Rio Grande Valley FC: All the seat expansions in the world can’t hide the fact that McAllen Memorial Stadium is a high school stadium through and through.
Here’s who’s left in the 11-team Championship:
Birmingham Legion FC
Charleston Battery
Charlotte Independence
Memphis 901 FC
Austin Bold FC
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
El Paso Locomotive FC
Oklahoma City Energy FC
Reno 1868 FC
Rio Grande Valley FC
FC Tulsa
With MLS folding the six affiliates it has in USL League One, the league is a little bit thin (especially considering USSF’s requirements for 8 teams for lower level leagues), but seems definitely able to expand up to the necessary numbers with Edwards’ allusions to five new additions this year:
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Forward Madison FC
Greenville Triumph SC
Union Omaha
Richmond Kickers
South Georgia Tormenta
FC Tucson
Format of Assorted Leagues – This (like everything in this post) is pure conjecture on my part, but here are my thoughts on how these leagues might function in a first year while waiting for additional expansion.
USL Premier – We’ll steal from the 12-team Scottish Premiership. Each club plays the other 11 clubs 3 times, with either one or two home matches against each side. When each club has played 33 matches, the top six and bottom six separate, with every club playing an additional five matches (against each other team in its group). The top club wins the league. The bottom club is automatically relegated. The second-bottom club will enter a two-legged playoff against someone (see below) from the championship playoffs.
USL Championship -- 11 clubs is a challenge to schedule for. How about every club plays everyone else three times (either one or two home matches against each side)? Top four clubs make the playoffs, which are decided by two-legged playoffs. The winner automatically goes up. I need feedback on the second part – is it better to have the runner-up from the playoffs face the second-bottom club from the Premiership, or should the winner of the third-place match-up get the chance to face them to keep drama going in both playoff series? As for relegation, we can clearly only send down the last place club while the third division is so small.
USL League One – While the league is so small, it doesn’t seem reasonable to have the clubs play as many matches as the higher divisions. Each club could play the other six clubs four times – twice at home and twice away – for a very equitable 24-match regular season, which would help restrict costs and still provide a chance to determine a clear winner. Whoever finishes top of the table goes up.
And there you have it, a hypothetical look at how the USL could build a D1 league right now. All it would take is a new stadium for almost the entire league and new owners for all but one of the 27 clubs, who wouldn’t feel that their property would be massively devalued if they got relegated.
Well that’s our show. I’m curious to see what you think of all of this, especially anything that you think I may have overlooked (I’m sure there’s plenty). Anyway, I hope you’re all staying safe and well.

Australian Open Mens and Womens Quarterfinals

Disclaimer : The tournament is heating up, and so is the inbox anger. I’ve had enough angry people spouting non-sequiturs at me about predictions that I think I should include a caveat in this. I wouldn’t suggest blindly taking things I write and wagering your money on them. First, this is going to give you an excuse to be angry at something besides yourself for losing your money gambling, which will allow you to continue. Second, I am not purporting to be writing strictly gambling advice. The idea that someone would be wagering on their predictions for every single match in a professional tennis tournament is absurd. However, since I am writing up every match, I am going to have opinions/offer ideas about every match. Inherent in that is task bias, which means I set out to do something, and so I do it to the best of my ability. This is why tout services and people selling picks are all scams. It isn’t that they don’t start with or have some ability to predict outcomes in certain matches, it’s that when you attempt to do it every day, you are no longer relying on your judgment and research to make calculated wagers when the opportunity arises, you are asking your mind to invent believable stories. You are in effect treating the betting sheet like a multiple choice exam and asking your mind to present defendable positions and skeptical theories about lines. A profitable sport bettor is not going to be placing bets daily, and likely if they are following tennis is not going to be doing much of anything on the later rounds as any perceived edges grow thinner and thinner. But that’s boring, and talking about gambling and psychology is boring, so please stop calling me a “yankee cunt” when you lose 15 quid.
Nadal vs Thiem : This is probably the tightest matchup of the quarters for me, as Nadal played excellent against Kyrgios and Thiem shut down Monfils in impressive fashion. Nadal opened up with perfect tennis and his court positioning on serve worked for a bit early in the match. This is a solvable strategy though, and I’ve found that when players are down a break this deep returning strategy begins to look like something that actually helps the server as the short returns are something most professional tennis players don’t miss much on, and you don’t escape the deep court in tennis very often. Kyrgios made a solid effort but seemingly doesn’t have the poweconsistency to upend Nadal despite having the ability to take him out of his game. Nadal missed simple shots to get a stranglehold on the match in the second, and had to sweat out two tiebreakers in a very entertaining affair. It seems that Kyrgios early in these matches knows he cannot redline for the entire match, and only once he’s down and gets angry does he find the energy to fully commit to his serves. This “maybe I can coast and turn it up later” strategy means losses to the guys working on their physical fitness, and the errors Kyrgios makes are largely physical limitation preventing execution.
Monfils spent more time making faces and stretching potential injuries than he did competing in this match, and although he began swinging for the fences on the forehand wing, he did so entirely too late. The third set was practically a race to the finish as he missed the open court several times trying to hit the “one shot to equalize the match” and put several very simple volleys wide that would have applied pressure at a similar point in the match to where Fritz was able to. Thiem looked well in control of this one and we likely won’t see Monfils beating him anytime soon. Neither player will have to stand as deep to return in this match but there’s little way to know if they will or not. I don’t expect straight traffic here for Nadal however his match with Kyrgios isn’t a good indicator of how he’ll perform as Kyrgios is sort of an outlier in terms of gamestyle (pure offense and little strategy). Thiem is still one of my picks to win this event, and has been crisp since the match with Bolt. Their last hardcourt meeting was an epic 5 set thriller at the USO and I think this wlll be a similarly tight match but with a different winner. Thiem in 5, and likely whoever is able to stay on the baseline more will win, despite both of these players being incredible defenders.
Wawrinka vs Zverev : Stan pulled probably the upset of the tournament on the men’s side, beating flu rumors and Medvedev in a 5 set thriller that basically was always on his raquet. He started the match absolutely crushing the ball and really didn’t stop. Med looked to struggle early to find offense and was reduced for most of this match to just playing consistent and looking to move Wawrinka. He hit very few clean winners and most of the 2nd and 3rd set run was due to Wawrinka errors. This is the danger I suppose of playing a big hitter in a long format. They may make errors but if they’re all in one set, it becomes difficult to score. Medvedev got a bit anxious late in the 5th, and while as a spectator I thought he’d want to hold on and look for a run of more errors, after having to be the one physically competing against a guy crushing the ball like that, I can understand why Medvedev did not think simple pushing would get the job done. Big win for Stan, and an interesting matchup next.
When this match opened as a pickem I bought an early hold on Rublev, thinking it would move quickly. It never did though, and as the hours ticked by I began to place more and more hedges on Zverev. The level and accomplishments the past few months are almost light years apart, but Vegas insisted that it was an even match. We saw quickly in the first set the issue in this matchup. Where Rublev is able to produce errors from his other opponents with his weight of shot, Zverev’s backhand just keeps returning the ball. Once the rally advantages are somewhat neutralized, it became a serving contest, and Zverev (despite his double faults and difficulties in the past) served excellent throughout this match. The outwide serve from the ad side was especially good, and it will need to be to get the job done against Wawrinka. Stan has lost in the third set in their last two meetings, and I expect a similar duration of match in this one. Where Stan was able to dominate Medvedev with power, I similarly expect that we’ll see Zverev able to reflect this back on at least the backhand wing. This brings Wawrinka’s errors into play, but where Rublev struggles to earn cheap points on his serve, Wawrinka excels. It is not always the case, but he had a cannon for a serve yesterday, and although it was mostly T serves netting his aces, late in the match he took something off and slid the ball out wide to great effect. A winnable match for both, but Wawrinka showed glimpses of the form that has won him some grand slam titles, and there is something to be sad for him having a physical edge in these long matches. Wawrinka in 5.
PSA : This is the second match where I am predicting a slight shift from the norm as far as the victor in their deciding sets, so please angry british people don’t waste your money. There is no reason to be betting on Wawrinka/Zverev or Thiem/Nadal are any of these tight matchups. The books get the odds right so often late in events, and no matter which side you select you lose to the juice over time. The WTA event in Newport Beach is where you should be focusing right now if you want bucks. For all $ intents and purposes, the Australian Open is over.
OR IS IT? Sandgren vs Federer : What the. How did this happen. Thanks to some excellent upset wins and a peculiar performance from Fabio Fognini who I suspect is still struggling to remove whatever tightass shirt he wore for that match, Tennys Sandgren is now in the quarterfinals of a major. It’s kinda awesome, and centerstage with Federer is a cool reward for the barrelchested man who posts borderline racist things online, but refuses to curse on court, shouting “goodness” when he misses. An enigma to be sure, there is some question to whether this will be a quick masterclass or a grinding match similar to what Milman produced. If you had to guess whether Fucs after beating Shapovalov or Milman after beating Humbert posted a better score against Federer, you’d like get it right. I’d likely get it wrong. It is incredibly difficult to know which Federer will show up and when he will struggle vs when he will roll. He looked great against Fucsovics, but he reverted to his old defensive form as many players do against Fed’s onslaught. The pressure Roger applies to his opponents is nonstop and the variety he employs with one of the wickedest backhand slices I have ever seen is amazing.
There are simple questions in this one that will decide the outcome. Can Sandgren serve enough unreturned balls to hold and get this deep in a set? Federer really only struggles in tiebreakers. Can Sandgren play enough defense and will his power allow him to turn this match into a physical struggle? Federer really only loses due to fatigue/back issues flaring up. The odds are no until they are yes. The way he played against Berretini was the kind of effort he’ll need to be competitive in this one. I look forward to seeing it, but given how much of a knob I think Tennys is, I’ll happily expect Federer in 4.
Raonic vs Djokovic : What in the 2017 is this. Raonic is very much playing his best tennis, after not being able to complete a tournament on tour for a very long time. The serve is working, the forehand is working, his movement (as noted by u/Vqwertbnm) is as good as it’s ever been, and oddly even his backhand was crushing the ball against Cilic, who seemed to be playing the same role against Raonic that RBA played against him. That kind of big hitting and super gel’d hair will be necessary against his next opponent, who definitely doesn’t cut his own hair but possibly definitely does. Djokovic hasn’t lost a match all season, and this is the biggest test I think he’ll face. While Nadal at the ATP Cup is a big one, Novak was a cut above the entire event. Raonic has bigger weapons, and if Djokovic wins this one there’s a good chance he will win this event, as he’ll have to neutralize one of the biggest serves the tour has ever seen in it’s best form. Djokovic in as many tiebreakers as it takes, or Raonic begins to look like he’ll win his first major.
Barty vs Kvitova : This is becoming my favorite match to watch on tour. These two always bring a high level against each other and although fatigue is often a factor for Kvitova by the end of these contests, she has the power to fight even when she’s spent. Kvitova’s ball almost seems to glide through the air at times, and you can look to the errors Sakkari made as a testament to how hard she’s hitting at the moment. Barty outlasted Riske who redlined in the middle of the match but couldn’t keep that level up for a full match, and really with the players left the winner of this match has to like their chances given that they’ve been in good form for quite some time now and some of the other contestants are enjoying their first deep run in a while or at all. I expect this one to go three sets and Kvitova to shriek like a bird many times, but I think Barty with the home support and her newly infused defensive abilities will be able to get an early lead in these sets and hold on where Sakkari was unable to do so. Barty party in 3.
Kenin vs Jabeur : Kenin did well to keep her head up after Gauff stole the first set in a heartbreaking tiebreak. Gauff’s backhand is incredible, and I’m not sure how much taller she’ll get but since most 15 year olds are not physically finished, it is going to be very difficult to stop her in the future. Kenin took a good approach of pushing the pace and hugging the baseline all the way to earning errors from Gauff, and while Gauff wasn’t out of the match she seemed for one of the first times on tour to be frustrated. Up next for Kenin is Jabeur, who surprised many people including myself by beating Wang in straight sets. There were some unfortunate level drops and errors from Wang, and I think the “I won the tournament” feeling that washes over a player after a huge upset played a factor here. Jabeur crushes her forehand, and she’ll need to as Kenin is a ball machine. I think the movement of Jabeur will become a factor here as Kenin has a fairly simple forehand but moves the ball very well to either side with one of the better two handed backhands on tour. This is the same stupid prediction I held for the last match, but I expect Jabeur to possibly be able to win a set but not the match. Collins overwhelmed Kenin recently with a similar style of power and offense but I think Kenin is a bit more focused here and with more on the line, she’ll make her first big impact on a major. Kenin in 2-3.
Kontaveit vs Halep : Unfortunate end for Swiatek who suffered a leg injury while leading this match and seemed to play well but not really be at her best for the rest. Good news for Kontaveit though, who has long been a top player on tour who hadn’t really impacted a major. Halep is the perfect opponent and the worst opponent as her lack of power gives Kontaveit the match on her racquet, but Halep’s defending will possibly frustrate her into errors. Mertens and Halep played a nice match and the 6-4, 6-4 scoreline hides the frequent momentum changes. I the end Mertens made a few errors in the games that went to duece that Halep took advantage of, and while I wasn’t overly impressed by Halep’s level she is a former grandslam champion, one of the best defenders on tour, and is always looking to get the ball to the next position to keep her opponent moving. This simple formula (Cahill assisted) is more valuable in late stages of an event where fatigue isn’t an outright factor but a slightly limiting one. I know many players look at the late rounds of events and think “i could beat them if they played like that against me.” This is a simple offense vs defense matchup but I think it hinges on Halep’s ability to hold serve. Mertens is a very skilled player but lacks the power that Kontaveit has. Kontaveit does hit for winners but with big margin over the net, and while Halep can be very frustrating on defense, Swiatek is an equally difficult mover to face. Someone in three but I lean towards Kontaveit getting her first semifinal here.
Muguruza Pavlyuchenkova : Muguruza hit line after line after line against Bertens. It was a very impressive display just a day after another very impressive display against Svitolina. Up next is another ballmachine, in the consistent Pavlyuchenkova, whose name I’m not going to abbreviate anymore. Her win over Kerber was an exhausting back and forth affair, but she finished strong and I don’t think given her slight serving edge over Bertens that this will be one-way traffic. Muguruza’s level scares me, and I don’t think it’s prudent to keep reminding people of her errors when she’s not making them. This should be a high level affair, and I couldn’t call a winner if I tried but if Muguruza wins this in straight sets she likely will make the finals.

So I sat down to write the elfs list, and "no elfs remain" was the sad thing I realized ... then I started looking at the players left, and the more I thought about it, nothing but elfs remain ... it is a very magical time for tennis

[HF] Ambition, Whiskey and a Bar Fight

The Kid
The sun. Inescapable. Not a cloud in the sky on this day. Mother earth thrashing her rays about all her creation. This fucking heat. Relentless and thick. The Kid could taste it, feel it engulf him as he rode through the plain. Sweat trickling down into his eyes, and onto his lips, tasting the salt. Absolute silence except for the sound of the horse huffing and puffing in this fever, and the slight, dull screech of the sun and its heat. The hoofs, continuously smacking dry, crumbly land. The poor beast with an oversized, hairless, sweating humanoid monkey on his back and supplies strapped to his sides.
But the heat was a minor obstacle in the grand scheme of things. The Kid had his reasons. He was on a mission. You could even call it a personal revolution. A mantra. A mantra that never escaped his mind nor his dreams. A mantra that destroyed the traditional career path he had perfectly lined up. A mantra that frayed his personal relationships, including his beautiful girl. Anyone The Kid was with eventually knew they were second to his ambition. Who knows what else kind of damage he may have done for this cause. Taken years off his life, that’s for sure.
Gold Rush.
The entire country has been feening for the shining rock. Stories of grand wealth spread like wildfire through The Kid’s city and eventually he became an addict himself. Usually it was the poor, or stupid who would actually pack their bags and ride West. Not people like The Kid. He had a bright future in front of him and all saw that. Educated, from a middle class, respected family, good looking too. The Kid was the assistant to an industrialist, a railroad man to be exact. The Industrialist was a fierce, focused man himself but he respected The Kid, he valued The Kid’s contributions and frequently he would tell him that there was a future for him here. He had a cookie cutter path envisioned for the young, smart, ambitious protege that perfectly outlined each step and the compensation along the way. It was good money, but it was never enough. And money didn’t mean adventure and it didn’t even necessarily mean glory. The Kid wanted more.
The Industrialist explained to the Kid, “Western Expansion is the future. That is easy to see. That’s why we will be building these tracks. But everyone going out there, into the wild, into the unknown, they are taking on too much risk, too much uncertainty, too many variables. That is not good business. Calculated risks, Kid. Run the books, don’t be beholden to outside forces that determine your fate. Take risks, but try to harness your destiny. You can’t control a hurricane but you’d still build a strong roof, right? Remember that Kid.”
And even frying underneath the sun riding on this fucking plain, The Kid did remember that. The conversation defined him. It was the seed that created the mantra. The Kid wasn’t going to mine the gold, he knew that was a fat failure waiting to happen. Instead he was going to supply the nation. Be it’s enabler. Pickaxes, hammers, chisels, shovels, boots, chewing tobacco, whiskey. He will be the one stop shop all the miners need to do their business properly. Find the right location, build the store and the empire will blossom itself.
Some people dream of becoming President of the United States or leading a political revolution in France, but not The Kid. When he closed his eyes on top of that horse, underneath this fucking heat, he sees the stores with his name, tall and proud, swarming with people. Expansion. Start off with 1, then 5, 10, why not 20. Then one day, he would build a house on a ridge that overlooked his portfolio, his empire and drink whiskey and admire it. That to him seemed prettier than a sunset could ever be. To overlook his own creation that all started from beginnings like this, riding through the heat on this fucking plain.
But even with strap fueled ambition, and purpose, everyone needs a rest, and finally a town emerged in front of The Kid. So he re-directed his companion and went to the town. The thought of a bed with clean sheets sounded heavenly right now and some whiskey wouldn’t be bad of course either.
The Drunkard
Ambition is a double edged sword. You hear about the victories, the riches, the women and the glory. You see the names on the buildings and the statues of great men erected in city centers and even holidays named after these heroes we choose to idolize. Even more glorious are the battles they went through to accomplish those goals and what it took to create the empires they now own. The fruits of ambition are endless and marvelous. But how many men fall for every man that rises? Ambition destroys more than we would like to admit. They don’t teach you that as a kid, but instead you celebrate the heroes and you are told anything is possible and the world is your oyster. But the world is not the story book ending for everyone. Failure comes for many, and its grip once it gets around your neck can be tight, cold, and unrelenting. Those that put forth more effort seem to get their necks choked even harder when they falter.
There at the saloon, sat The Drunkard and he had his neck wrung harder than anyone in this town had seen.
The Drunkard grew up from very little. His dad was a laborer on a pig farm, his mother unknown. She left long ago, in the middle of the night, most likely to seek a better life, a better man but who really knows. His dad was an abusive drunk, ugly as sin and mean as all hell. The Drunkard always figured he was an only child because who else would fuck this poor, dumb man. But Drunkard held onto his hope. The owner of the pig farm, his father’s employer, was a tycoon. Rumor had it he owned 8 farms throughout the county and this one was the smallest. He rode up on his carriage and would get out in his pristine coat, top hat and shiny shoes. The Drunkard knew that one day he wanted to be this man.
Years passed by, his Dad died, and the Pig Tycoon got richer. The Drunkard worked at the pig farm as soon as he could. Every day he would approach the Pig Tycoon and try to curry favor and express his eagerness to be more. To be like him. And every day the Pig Tycoon would spit at him, tell this field rat to get away from him. Eventually The Drunkard realized he didn’t need that pig fucker anyways. Just like the greats in the past he would build his empire from pennies into Rome. So he worked and he saved. He accumulated enough money and then one day he told the Pig Tycoon he had enough of his bullshit and he quit. After giving his notice, he marched out of Pig Tycoon’s big, clean house and went to the market and bought his own pigs. He was going to take his skills and start it himself. This town needed a little competition anyways he reckoned.
Starting a business isn’t easy and The Drunkard found this out just like all other entrepreneurs before him but that didn’t bother him. He loved the daily fight. He could see the growth of his operation physically every day and that made his chest swirl with warmth and fire. His successes, some big and some small, became a drug to him, a drug that fueled him with energy to keep growing and pushing for more. He knew his mission. He wanted to grow larger and larger and then one day spit on the Pig Tycoon himself.
As the town itself grew, so did The Drunkard’s business. More restaurants popped up and they needed more bacon and ham. He distributed fair prices and timely deliveries. His meat was nicely packaged, clean and often generous in their portions. His customers respected him. The Drunkard began to reckon he had a knack for this. He had a couple of Chinese running the butcher shop at cheap labor rates slicing the meat, and some boys cleaning the shit in the styes. He would sit back in the office running the books, lightly sip some whiskey but never too much with things in control. He was often seen in town trying to find new buyers. Known as a tenacious but respectful salesman.
It wasn't anything crazy, but he was proud of what he accomplished and all he built. A rags to riches story. Something his future kids would be proud of. Something the town could look up to and truly believe that with some ambition, gumption, and a fighter’s heart anything truly is possible in this country.
But as we foreshadowed before, The Drunkard was one of those to be sliced by ambitions blunt end and then grasped by failure’s ice cold fingers around the neck for the finishing blow. Failure rode up in the form of Pig Tycoon in his fancy carriage and his perfect attire. Failure placed a laughable offer on his desk and told him congratulations on all he achieved but now it’s time to quit and to be happy with what he’s getting today. Failure in his top hat and white gloves told him he found out about his little operation and had made a deal with all the other buyers in this town. The Pig Tycoon informed him of the new price he was offering his customers and The Drunkard knew it was simply impossible for him to match. No one in their right mind would buy from him again.
It took two months and one week for the Pig Tycoon to stomp on this little fire of competition that was beginning to grow in his jungle. And just like that The Drunkard went from a fearless conqueror to a broken man. Just another limp corpse for Failure to consume. From that day on, little by little Failure nibbled on his prey, getting closer and closer to the bone.
So now there The Drunkard sat at the saloon, drunk once again. Whiskey shot after whiskey shot. Dead inside with nothing to live for except another drink. His soul escaped him and he had given up searching for it long ago.
The Kid entered the saloon, chest out with a halo of energy around him, not making much effort to be quiet or show any lack of confidence. The Drunkard put his soulless, drunk eyes on him and little spurts of anger went through him. That is all he could really feel these days, so he was ready to ride that brief twang of emotion. Let’s see where I can take this, he thought.
Bar Fight
It’s funny how people often think bar fights actually start from anything except pure madness or stupidity. Drunk. Angry. Why not fight? It’s the perfect cocktail of masculine aggression and foolishness. Throw in this heat and anything is possible. So does it really matter how or why The Kid and The Drunkard brawled at the saloon? Really it wasn’t anything eloquent except a drunk, beaten man telling a young, handsome boy that he hated his face and that he talked like a pussy. Do you really expect bar fights to be much more than that? All you have to know is that The Drunkard put his arms behind his back trying to provoke the Kid to hit him. When that didn't work the Drunkard dropped his own pants, put his penis between his legs and pranced around like he had a cooch. The Kid actually found that amusing and claimed it was the best pussy he had seen in weeks, but to be clear, the only pussy too. The other attendees of the bar looked at The Drunkard in dismay and disgust yelling and asking what the fuck was he doing.
The Kid took a shot of whiskey while The Drunkard did his dance but soon enough it was real when the first punch hit The Kid’s face square in the jaw, spraying blood and whiskey across the wooden, dusty bar top.
The Drunkard was a complete disgrace at this point throughout the town, but these seemingly weekly bar tassels were some of the best entertainment the townsfolk would ever get, so for that they appreciated him. Hooting and hollering the bar rats formed a circle around the two. The Kid still perplexed at what the fuck was going on and grabbing his face knew he was in one weird, fucking town. So he grabbed The Drunkards whiskey glass out of his bumbling hands, shot it down and said “well let’s fucking do this” and off the two men went. The crowd erupted and the bartender, seeing an opportunity, immediately started shouting odds and collecting bets. “Who do you all got you boys, is our idiot finally going to win one? I think he just might, this pretty boy looks like a soft ass Yankee to me!” yelled the bartender, as the crowd laughed even more as the two men threw each other across the bar, knocking down tables and chairs.
Both edges of the sword of ambition brought these two souls together and it's hard to imagine what reason other than just sheer amusement. The Drunkard thinking of his once beautiful pigs and the Kid fighting and swinging knowing this is just another obstacle for him to get through to build his gleaming stores. Maybe Failure felt that if he could smash the dead soul he once consumed into this new, young energy it could zap his glowing ambition and then Failure could rub his death into him. Maybe Failure thought if he could bring them together then he could get his fingers around this young, eager, juicy neck. But perhaps Failure and the blunt edge of Ambition couldn’t really control the absurdity of a bar fight as much as they thought. Because after The Kid punched The Drunkard in the nose with a powerful blow. The direct contact of the knuckles onto The Drunkard’s cartilage made a cracking noise that made the crowd give a loud, collective gasp. The blood started gushing down his face and all over his teeth. Enough was enough and he waved his hand in the air in defeat.
Half the crowd rushed The Kid patting him on the back and the other half yelled in disgust at the money they just lost. The Kid huffing and puffing, but smiling a little too hard, also had some blood running down from right above his eye. The Drunkard looked at him and gave a big goofy, red smeared smile, “so what brings you to town?” The Kid erupted with laughter and the entire bar joined him. The bartender jumped over the bar and filled both men’s glasses full of whiskey. They cheers’d, took shots and the bartender raised both their hands. The bar erupted even more. “BITCH! Play the piano!” the bartender yelled and lively music filled the venue. With blood still gushing down his face and into his mouth and down his throat, The Drunkard looked at the kid and suddenly felt something inside him that he hadn’t felt in years. He felt some energy again. He knew the entire bar could feel it too. The energy was pulsating from this Kid, the room seemed brighter and it seemed everyone wanted to be around him. He was going somewhere. It was obvious. The Drunkard could feel Failure sulking back into the corner for the first time in years. He felt a fire brewing in his stomach. He wasn’t sure if it was the whiskey but it reminded him of his very first pig. Something had arrived at this town and he did not want it to go. The Kid was fucking contagious.

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I am 53 years old, have a combined $210,000 annual income, live on Long Island, NY, and work as a Project Coordinator