Some dumb numbers that probably don't mean anything - Cleveland Edition
I don't know if I'll keep doing this but I had a fun time preparing for the game last time doing it and hopefully it helps get people excited for the game this weekend.
Positional Talent Breakdown
This is my opinion on the state of the two rosters and is subject to being wrong. The scoring is 3 for a push, +- 1 for slight dis/advantage, +- 2 for a big dis/advantage. This is assuming that Nick Chubb out, as expected.
Source. All of the point spreads were identical, Browns were picked as the better line in 6 out of the 9 sources. |Colts|Browns|Pick|Source| |-2.5|+2.5|Colts|DraftKings| |-2.5|+2.5|Browns|BetMGM NJ| |-2.5|+2.5|Browns|FanDuel NJ| |-2.5|+2.5|Browns|PointsBet NJ| |-2.5|+2.5|Colts|SugarHouse| |-2.5|+2.5|Browns|Bet365 NJ| |-2.5|+2.5|Colts|UnibetNJ| |-2.5|+2.5|Browns|William Hill NJ| |-2.5|+2.5|63% Browns|Yahoo!|
Strength of Victories / Weakness of Losses
This is a measure of the quality of the wins and losses. The strength of victory is one of the tie breaker metrics, described here (high number is good). Weakness of losses is a similar metric but to describe how bad a loss is (high number is bad). Because we have no common opponents to date, that metric is not included. These numbers are between 0 and 1. Because the Browns only loss was to the 3-1 Ravens, they have a better loss score than we do, who lost to the 1-3 Jags. We have a slightly better Strength of Victory than the Browns.
Metric
Colts
Browns
SoV
0.333
0.273
WoL
0.75
0.25
Team Rankings
Credit to the Yahoo! app for these values.
Metric
Colts
Browns
PPG
25.8
31.0
PPG Rank
18th
4th
Def PPG
14
31.5
Def PPG Rank
1st
28th
Yards/G
365.5
396.0
Yards/G Rank
22nd
14th
Pass Yards/G
250.3
191.5
Pass Yards/G Rank
20th
32nd
Rush Yards/G
115.3
204.5
Rush Yards/G Rank
15th
1st
Sacks
10.0
11.0
Sacks Rank
8th
6th
Interceptions
7
4
Interceptions Rank
1st
4th
History
The series between the Colts and the Cleveland Browns is tied at 17-17-0. However, since the Colts have been in Indianapolis, they lead the series 12-6, including 8 of the last 9. The two teams have met in the playoffs 4 times, with the most recent one coming in 1988 and the other 3 coming in the Baltimore Colts years.
Keys to winning
For the Colts: - Getting pressure on Mayfield (one of the league's worst under pressure in 2019) - Continued improvement in 3rd down, especially in scoring position - Stopping big plays on Defense - Turning field goals into TDs - (edit) Make Mayfield have to try to beat you deep For the Browns: - Establish the run game against a strong defensive front - Get OBJ going early - Get pressure on Phillip Rivers - Winning field position battle
Fun fact from last game:
For the last 4 elections, when the Colts have beat the Bears, Republicans have won the presidential election that year. When the Bears have beaten the Colts, Democrats have won the presidential election that year. By this B.S. model, Donald trump will re-elected. Edit: I originally saw this on the bears subreddit. Didn't realize it had been cross posted to ours before posting.
My Prediction
Both teams are coming into this game with a 3 game winning streak. This feels like a must-win game for the Browns because they have to compete with the Steelers and Ravens in the AFC North. I believe that the Browns offense, even without Nick Chubb will be able to get more done against the Colts defense than the Colt's offense can accomplish against the Browns Defense. Kevin Stefanski will be able to will his team to victory and expose some of the weaknesses the Colts have been able to keep hidden so far this season on defense. Sadly, I think the Browns will win this game 31-20, please prove me wrong, Colts.
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