How can I put all of the elder scrolls in-game books on my iPhone? (in a way that I can access them without Internet)
I would really like to get them (maybe from a website online?) and save them to my phone so I can read them on ferries, planes, in the hotel room, etc. I'm open to downloading (and paying for) apps if necessary.
Gather 'round retards and autists. Grab a mug of eggnog, find a cozy corner in your mom's basement, and enjoy the tale of SIR JACK A LOT. In this post: I'll go over my trading history, my strategy, my philosophy, and also systematically destroy every accusation and idiotic question made against me in the last week WITH RECEIPTS. No one doubts motherfuckin SIR JACK A LOT. Disclaimers Privacy is important to me. I wish to stay anonymous. This is not financial advice, just my story.
Ghosts of Christmas Past
Chapter 1: Crypto (2017-18) How it all started... I threw every last dollar I had in ETH at $12 and swing traded a ton of shit coins and ICOs until it all came crashing down. In short: turned $8K into $300K and back to $30k but owed the IRS ~$120K since all the gains were calculated at 2017-year-end. I royally fucked myself because I didn't set any money aside for taxes. Ended up in debt to some very bad people and things were very dark, I don't like to talk about this time in my life that much. Chapter 2: WSB Tuition (2018) First learned about WSB in 2018 from the infamous FB ER put play by YungBillionaire turning ~$28K into $451K overnight. That sounded fun. Quickly learned about options but most importantly about FDs, tendies, and the power of memes. Back then it was all about trade wars and hanging at the whim of commander cheeto's supple tweets. I have fond memories of:
Apparently the first stock I ever bought on Robinhood was HMNY... thanks Robinhood Recap for the reminder of my retarded-ness
Grew my first set of winkles on my smooth brain with AMC calls. The thesis was that their Stubs A-List subscription was doing pretty well according to /AMCsAList back then
Went all-in MTCH weekly puts with $12K clenching my stomach in the fetal position when all of a sudden there was a lawsuit and I tripled my account in minutes, pure luck
Chapter 3: Road to $1M+ (2020) Let's start with the receipts since that's what everyone's interested in: Proof that I started Feb 2020 with only $35K Vanguard is my 401k provider and their self-directed brokerage is provided by TD Ameritrade which is why you see screenshots from two different apps. Started the year with $11K in 401k, deposited $26K more in Jan and then started trading in Feb with $35K. The $49K withdrawal in June was for a 401k loan to buy a Tesla. Looking at this all-time graph gets me so hard In my first run up to June, turned $35k into $850K (APT, CODX, NCLH, CHWY) and decided my luck was too good and needed to "cool down". Decided to withdraw $50k for a Tesla and stayed away from the markets for a good 3 months thinking the market was going to go back down again... But it didn't, the market kept rallying and I got the tendie tingles. My first move in Sept was to go all-in on WORK and bought at the high of $35 and was immediately down -30% thanks to their shit ER. They recovered a bit in the weeks afterwards and then jumped into CRSR which made me a millionaire and then GME. GME also shit the bed with a -20% ER but recovered swiftly thanks to Lord Cohen and recently jumped into STIC for that final spike up. Chapter 4: Explaining every trade Proof of every gain/loss I've ever traded (except APT history which was in Vanguard) My strategy is going all-in on a single stock all-shares. The idea is to have a thesis and conviction with that trade. I stay in the trade until the thesis is invalidated or another opportunity arises, it's a simple strategy and it's worked for me so far. My account does not allow options or margin trading. Here's a few theses and history I remember in hopes folks can learn something:
APT/CODX - It was obvious to me in Jan/Feb that this coronavirus was the real deal. The trick was to look at the facts and not the noise. There was a fake viral video of blood-curdling screams from Wuhan apartments that was so obviously fake but western media loved it. On the other hand, Wuhan built a makeshift hospital in just 10 days, that's real action the government took and showed me how seriously dangerous this new virus was going to be. So I loaded up on APT, a mask stock, and rode it up and then switched to CODX, a testing stock, and rode that up from $11 to $24 selling right before their botched ER (conf call with no queue and everyone talking over each other lol)
NCLH - Saw a curious spike in volume on May 14 with a move upward, piqued my tendie tingles again. Decided it was worth an all-in at $10.57 as the support of $10 was pretty strong. The mood at the time was that coronavirus was waning (I knew it was wrong but the market was emotionally optimistic) and fortunately it caused NCLH to moon and I sold at $19.75 on June 4 even though it kept mooning to $26 over the next 2 days
CHWY - Got a dog, it's cute. Pets + E-Commerce during a pandemic, easy money. Bought at $41 and sold at $46 only because I thought it was moving kind of slowly. Well I was pretty wrong, now it's at $104
SQQQ/TVIX - I tried being a gay bear for an hour and lost money. Don't ever be a gay bear
CRSR - Been watching a ton of tech review and PC building YouTube channels and subreddits and the "enthusiast" crowd is definitely larger and has bigger wallets than people think. There is fucking keyboard typing ASMR now and ebay reviewers THANKING scalpers for charging them 2-3x MRSP. Biggest generational jump in GPU and CPU in a while and recently IPO-ed Corsair was definitely gonna benefit from this new generation of gamers was my thesis. Went all-in at $24 and sold at $36 after a non-stop run even though it kept running all the way to $51. No regrets, profit is profit.
WORK - It was the only "WFH" stock that didn't moon yet, thought it deserved a chance was my thesis. Went all-in at the tippy top of $35 on Sept 2 and it immediately kept crashing all the way to $24 in 5 days. Fortunately it recovered a bit and sold at $32 for a loss since I gave up hope and it seemed to be running out of steam
Chapter 5: GME Gang Confession Now: I have a confession to make. My conviction for the Gamestop MOASS is insane. Had 88,233 shares at $13.04 buy-in with a $120 stop limit. Listening to this 90-min podcast of Uberkikz11 going on about how he knows more about this company than any mortal human should gets me so friken hard every time. But. That -20% ER drop hurt me on a spiritual level. Watching my account go from $1.5M to $1.1M at one point gave me Taco Bell-levels of stomach cramps. So when it bounced back to $15-16 on no news on Fri, Dec 18, I felt like I needed to "cool down" again. It was going into the holidays with a British virus mutation on the way and hedge funds manipulating to get their holiday bonuses, it felt kind of dangerous. And no way Ryan Cohen would be working with his lawyers on something that fast over the holidays, right? So I sold all my GME at $15.50. Then on Mon, Dec 21 morning, Lord Cohen drops his new 13D/A... but the stock price stayed flat all day. The Lord gave me a chance. A whole day to get back in. Unfortunately I didn't take it. And then Tue, Dec 22 all tendies broke loose, the squeezening. +25% gain. deepfuckingvalue dropping his massive dong in another update. I waddled back and forth in my fetal position. Missed out on ~$300K gain while watching everyone freak out. Felt exactly like this: Can't feel my dick at all... Chapter 6: Barking on a STIC While waddling and scrolling on my phone, I happened to stumble across this post about STIC and BarkBox. Not sure why pound_salt_ deleted the original post but at the time, it was the only post about it on WSB I was pretty familiar with BarkBox and started researching, it seemed super un-discovered. I liked what I saw: Pets. E-commerce. Subscription. SPAC. Basic white bitches spoiling dogs. This might be worth an all-in. So on Wed, Dec 23 morning I decided to make a move. All-in at $14.42. Then I started writing everything I had learned and posted it all in my DD post at 1:46PM ET because I thought it was worth sharing what I found https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kiypqq/sir_jack_a_lots_next_move_all_in_stic_bark_merge The price was $14.25 at the time of posting and frankly, price was oddly flat at $14.25 pretty much all day. Lots of people got to buy in at this price. Why did it take me so long to write it? I had actual work meetings all morning and wrote it during my lunch break Then by the luck of the gods, apparently the CEO of BarkBox, Matt Meeker, went onto CNBC at 3:20PM ET and it started mooning. On Thurs, Dec 24 I awoke to a 20% pop and shared my gains for ya'll to salivate over. Complete. Luck.
Ghost of Christmas Future
Chapter 7: What's next? Let me be clear. I stand by every word of conviction I mentioned in all my GME and STIC posts, those are still my favorite H1 2021 plays. Holding STIC until merger would most definitely get you some massive gains. But I'm a swing momentum trader. If I feel like something is running out of steam, has a risk of a rug pull, or another stock has potential to pick up steam with lesser downside, that's when I usually jump around. I'm not happy with just a +25% in 3 months. I want a +25% compounded on +25% compounded on another +25% in the same 3 month time period. On Monday, Dec 28 I will probably sell STIC and move all into CRSR again. From technical charting perspective, I'm loving the setup and the magical crayons are telling me we're at the support again and this should bounce in anticipation of strong Q4 earnings. Now: this is not a ding on STIC or GME, I stand by my 2x-10x claims at some point in H1 2021. It will eventually get there but it might also dip and rise again and I want to swing that dip and rise. Let me spell it out for some retards: because STIC moon-ed so fast, I want to sell to capture profits and hopefully buy back in on a dip. If STIC had not mooned yet, I would still be holding STIC for a more gradual moon-ing to let my thesis play out. If STIC does not dip but keeps mooning, then I will not chase and happily watch other diamond hands enjoy their tendies.
Q&A / AMAA
I'm fucking tired of answering the same repeated idiotic questions. Let this Q&A serve as an artifact and please link it to new retards. I will also proceed to debunk every single fucking false claim I've read in my last few posts. Also feel free to AMAA in the comments, I'll be replying all day.
How often do you jack off? At least 2 times a day and always before I make a trade for that post-nut clarity
Haha you're going to owe so much in taxes - Nope, this is all in my 401k which in the US means I don't owe taxes until I withdraw. Fucking compounding gains for years bitch
Why are you making such risky trades? My goal is 8 digits or bust, that's my /fatfire number so I can finally quit this wageslave game. It's so obviously stacked against us and requires a lottery moment to reach escape velocity to play on New Game+ where I can live on $400k 4% SWR on $10M. This is my lottery moment and I'm leaning all the fucking way in. That's why I'm chad-ing it up and trying to TIME the market, meaning riding shit up and then jumping back into shit for another ride up. Fuck you Warren Buffet and your 90 y/o "time in the market" boomer bullshit. The next pandemic in 2025 might wipe us all out anyways, I ain't got time to wait for retirement. Gotta will it into existence. YOLO
How are you so good at this? I study everything. Technicals. Charts. Support levels. Volume spikes. Short interest. Executive teams. Rumors. Customer sentiment. Employee morale. Insider trading. MSM manipulation. Comparable market caps. ER reports. Upgrade reports. SEC filings. Meme potential. I literally watch and study every facet I can about a company, and do so quickly.
What's your trading strategy? All-in on a single stock all-shares. The idea is to have a thesis and conviction with that trade. I stay in the trade until the thesis is invalidated or another opportunity arises, it's a simple strategy and it's worked for me so far.
Why do you post on WSB? Internet points is fucking fun. I was banned for like 30 minutes yesterday (on "accident" apparently) and having $200k+ gains without the ability to share was just not the same
How do I follow your next move? Oh just follow my discord/newslett -- no fuck that shit. I don't do discord or newsletters or twitter or anything else. I'll keep posting on WSB until 8 digits or bust (or ban), you can guarantee that.
Why do you remove the time on your screenshots? I'm cropping shit on my iPhone and my username is between the portfolio number and the top bar. Otherwise I'd love to friken show off my perpetual 69% battery level
15% isn't a real YOLO - I am literally shoving my entire net worth into a single stock every single time. Correct it's not the same as blackjack or FDs where if I got it wrong, I could lose everything but it's still fucking riskier than any ETF or financial advisor with their cuckold MBA would ever advise. One 15% play may not be impressive but compounded together is how you get this 50X in less than a year
Where's PLTR or TSLA? Notice I never once touched PLTR, TSLA, NIO, XBEV, MVIS, etc or any of the other meme stocks WSB loves. That's because I hate being a sheep and following after the curve. I try to find shit right before the curve starts (usually indicated by a volume spike) and most WSB meme stocks are up way too high for my risk tolerance. Too much at stake to lose to a random rug pull moment.
Hey I think I'm your cousin, can I get some money? No you fuck, stop being poor.
Hey do you wanna fuck my ex-wife? Already did, next
You're just using WSB to pump and dump on us - No you fucking idiot.
First: look at my post history, I NEVER make a hard recommendation for people to buy a stock. I only share my gains, losses, or DD because it's fucking funny to see how ya'll react. Whether people want to follow my move or not is 100% up to people. Do your own fucking DD and figure out when you want to sell according to your own thesis/risk tolerance.
Second: You folks keep asking me for my next move. Well how and when the fuck should I share it? If I post something in the morning, it's stuck in /new for a while until it gets enough upvotes to hit the front page and by then it's already afternoon or market close and the stock might have already done who knows what. That's not pump and dumping, that's just a delayed effect of how Reddit's algorithm works. Anything on the front page is essentially 5-15 hours old news and you need to determine if the state of the world is still the same or be a sheep and chase. It's the same thing once you hear Aunt Cathie or Boomer Cramer mention a stock and it trickles down to you, you're chasing after others have already gotten in
Third: My $1.5M is not enough to move any real-volume stock. I don't touch OTC or low-volume shit. For STIC: I have 97K shares and on average 2-4M shares are traded every day for STIC so my account is a like a drop of whale cum in the ocean
Fourth: Real pump and dumpers are the shitty scum on the earth. Spend any time in /pennystocks or some Discord or Stocktwits and holy shit, these scum run fucking operations. I've even seen paid newsletters where the highest tier gets the tip "early" to buy in and then the lowefree tiers get the tip which causes the pump for the early buyers to literally dump on and create bag holders on non-existant volume too
Fifth: Listen to what DoubleKillGG and his big brain figured out the rest of you retards could not:
The fact is that SIR_JACK_A_LOT is a swing trader. Yes he pumps his stocks and closes relatively quickly but he doesn't pump shit stocks. If you bought any of his positions when he posted you'd be up on everything. A pump and dump requires the dump part where investors are left holding a stock that is worth less than when they bought it. He did, however, break wsb's rule #4; STIC's market cap is below $1B. His positions closed and what they're worth currently NCLH: Exit at 17.95. Current share price is 24.51 CHWY: Exit at 44.35. Current share price is 104.10 NCLH (again): Exit at 19.16. Current share price is 24.51 CRSR: Exit at 35.57. Current share price is 36.70 PTON: Exit at 109.46. Current share price is 163.60 GME: Exit at 15.96. Current share price is 20.26 *\*Exits are estimations from his posts* STIC: Posted DD when share price was around 14.25. Current share price is 17.85
Shout-outs Some of ya'll are real gems. Major props to:
GrowerNotAShower11 for his erotic fan-fiction. I need one written about Cramer succumbing ahegao-style to the awe of my portfolio gains and massive dong STAT
Many other loyal fans who helped me get unbanned yesterday, thank you
Fuck You Haters Last week we got durado so cucked he deleted his account and now kingobama123 is all up on my ass. First, read this magnum dong opus and if you have more questions, ask it in the comments, I'll cum all over you. POLL To really drive home the value I bring to WSB, let's see how many peoples' lives I've changed and for the better or worse. Take this poll regarding whether I helped make you gain or lose money if you've been following. https://www.strawpoll.me/42341589 🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄 🎄🚀🎄🚀Merry Fucking Christmas 🚀🎄🚀 🚀🎄Jerome Powell bless us, every one!🚀🎄 🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀 My usual order is the 13-piece tenders - whopping 1780 calories in a single sitting
CORSAIR EARNINGS PLAY, The DD you've been waiting for
Corsair Gaming ($CRSR) Redefining gaming, eSports, and streaming Company Overview Corsair Gaming is an American computer hardware and peripherals company founded in 1994 and headquartered in California. They acquired Elgato Gaming in 2018 to expand to the streaming gear market, Origin PC and SCUF gaming in 2019 to expand into the custom-built PC systems and console controllers markets, respectively, and during 2020 they acquired Gamer Sensei and EpocCam, and partnered with Pipeline to grow into the gaming and streaming coaching market. Corsair went public on September 23, 2020, with its IPO priced at $17, valuing the company at about $1.3B. Understanding the Business Value Proposition Corsair provides specialized, high-performance gear for gamers and streamers. Their products are designed to provide speed and reliability for competitive gaming, high quality content for streamers, and powerful PC components that allows gamers to run modern games smoothly. Revenue Streams Currently, Corsair groups its product offering into two segments: gamer and creator peripherals and gaming components and systems. Gamer and Creator Peripherals: which represents around 25% of net revenue, includes gaming mice, keyboards, and headsets, streaming gear, and high performance console controllers. Gaming Components Systems: which represents around 75% of net revenue includes computer cases, power supply units (PSU), high performance memory products (40% of net revenue), and custom-built gaming systems. Acquisitions and Partnerships: During 3Q 2020 Corsair acquired Gamer Sensei, a gaming coaching platform, EpocCam, an app that allows iPhones to serve as a webcam, and partnered with Pipeline, a course-based education platform for streamers. Industry Market Size According to Jon Peddie Research, the global gaming and streaming gear markets is expected to reach $40B by the end of 2020. Before the pandemic JPR estimated the market to grow at a modest 1.05% CAGR until 2022. However, during 2020 the market has grown an estimated 10% year-over-year. Additionally, DFC Intelligence research estimated that the video-game coaching market surpasses $1B. Industry Fundamentals Growth in the gaming and streaming gear industries are driven by strong and robust fundamentals. Popularity of gaming is increasing: According to Newzoo, there are an estimated 2.7B gamers worldwide, which are expected to spend $159B on games in 2020 and is expected to grow at an 8.3% CAGR to exceed $200B by 2023. PC and console gaming represents 51% of the total market, and mobile gaming 49%. Corsair has stated that currently there is no interest in expanding to the mobile gaming market. Tech-driven improvements in game quality: Advances in computer power have enabled gaming platforms to provide increasingly immersive experiences. This in turn, places increased demand on high-performance computing hardware. Increasing gaming and streaming engagement: Some interesting facts reported in the Limelight Networks’ State of Online Gaming 2019 research report include:
On average, video gamers spend six hours and 20 minutes each week playing video games
More than 38% of gamers would like to become professionals if it could support themselves
Gamers from novice to aspiring professionals report missing daily activities due to gaming, missed sleep is the most pervasive
Watching gamers play video games online is more popular than watching traditional sports for 18-25 year olds.
The eSports and streaming flywheel The rise in popularity and viewership of eSports brings more investment from publishers, sponsors, advertisers, team owners, and leagues to the eSports industry. Increased investment brings more players and increased performance focus of gamers who advance from less engaged gaming to high-performance gameplay, which in turn brings more viewers. Competitive Landscape & Risks Competition The gaming and streaming market is characterized by intense competition, constant price pressure and rapid change. Competition across Corsair’s product offering includes: Gaming keyboards and mice - Logitech and Razer Headsets and related audio products -Logitech, Razer, and HyperX Streaming gear - Logitech and AVerMedia Performance controllers - Microsoft and Logitech PSUs, cooling solutions, and computer cases - Cooler Master, NZXT, EVGA, Seasonic, and Thermaltake High performance memory - G.Skill, HyperX, and Micron Pre-built and custom-built gaming PCs - Alienware (Dell), Omen (HP), Asus, Razer, iBuypower and Cyberpower Competitive Strategy The company follows a differentiation leadership strategy by prioritizing high-performance and professional quality and charging a price premium on their products in exchange for superior quality, high value added features, and superior brand recognition. Market Share According to NPD Group, by 2020 Corsair had #1 market share position in the US in its gaming components and systems products with 42% of the market share from 26% in 2015. Their gamer and creator peripheral products are not yet market leaders, however, the company increased its market share in that segment from 5% in 2013 to 18% by 2020 in the US. Growth Strategy Move into the Asia Pacific region: The Asia Pacific Region represents a long-term growth opportunity. According to Newzoo, they represent 54% of the global gaming community. Complimentary acquisitions: Corsair has carried out this strategy aggressively since 2018 with the acquisitions of Elgato Gaming, Origin PC, SCUF and Gamer Sensei. They plan to continue evaluating and pursuing new acquisitions that may strengthen their competitive position. New Markets: Uses of streaming gear has spread into areas including, podcasting, video blogging, interactive fitness, remote learning, and work-from-home, which represent a promising avenue for continued expansion in this product segment. Threat of New Entrants Because of the continued convergence between the computing devices and consumer electronics markets, increased competition from well-established consumer electronics companies is expected in the gaming and streaming peripherals segment (e.g. use of Audio-technica microphones by streamers). Threat of Substitution A significant medium- to long-term risk for Corsair’s business model is the evolution of cloud computing and augmented/virtual reality entertainment. Cloud computing refers to a computing environment in which software is run on third-party servers and accessed by end users over the internet, requiring minimal processing power from the end-user’s system. Through cloud computing, gamers will be able to access and play sophisticated games without the need of expensive high-performance PC systems and components. According to Grand View Research, the global cloud gaming market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 48% from 2020 to reach $7.2B by 2027. Additionally, Corsair must be able to adapt its product offering to meet the needs of the evolving augmented/virtual reality industry. Moats There does not seem to be any relevant, structural moats, that may prohibit competitors from capturing Corsair’s market share across their product offering. Other Relevant Risks Due to the concentration of their production facilities in Taiwan and China, Corsair may be adversely by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. Financial Summary Proforma Balance Sheet https://postimg.cc/QHgY1ZxL Income Statement https://postimg.cc/qNkbGDzN For the 9 months ended September 2020 compared to the same period last year: The 49% increase in net revenue is mostly attributed to a large number of consumers gaming and working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic. The company’s gross margin is influenced by its product mix for the period, gamer and creator peripherals have a higher gross margin (25-35%) than gaming components and systems (15-25%). Proforma Cashflow Statement https://postimg.cc/XXCzNyRY Cash used in investing activities consists primarily on the acquisitions of Elgato in 2018, and SCUF and Origin PC in 2019. Peer Comparison https://postimg.cc/Whcfd1V6 Logitech International (LOGI) and Micron Technologies (MU) Why am I posting this now? I believe they are going to have very strong 4th quarter 2020 earning results. 2020 had record pc sales,and pc video games has reported record numbers of players. They are in my opinion the leading pc peripherals brand for gamers. Q4 Earnings Include both Black Friday and Christmas Sales Record pc sales: https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/record-pc-sales-in-2020-as-covid-limits-work-education-to-homes/story/427858.html#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20data,units%20in%20Q4%20of%202020&text=COVID%2D19%20pandemic%20has%20turned,personal%20computer%20(PC)%20industry%20industry). Google trends: https://imgur.com/oKPn6R5 My price target for this earnings: $65 EDIT: (EOM) TLDR: $CRSR will crush Q4 earnings🚀 🚀 🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀 🚀 🚀 Position: 60 Contracts 40c exp 2/19 disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH credit: u/italiansomali and u/erythaean
Corsair Gaming ($CRSR) Redefining gaming, eSports, and streaming Company Overview Corsair Gaming is an American computer hardware and peripherals company founded in 1994 and headquartered in California. They acquired Elgato Gaming in 2018 to expand to the streaming gear market, Origin PC and SCUF gaming in 2019 to expand into the custom-built PC systems and console controllers markets, respectively, and during 2020 they acquired Gamer Sensei and EpocCam, and partnered with Pipeline to grow into the gaming and streaming coaching market. Corsair went public on September 23, 2020, with its IPO priced at $17, valuing the company at about $1.3B. Understanding the Business Value Proposition Corsair provides specialized, high-performance gear for gamers and streamers. Their products are designed to provide speed and reliability for competitive gaming, high quality content for streamers, and powerful PC components that allows gamers to run modern games smoothly. Revenue Streams Currently, Corsair groups its product offering into two segments: gamer and creator peripherals and gaming components and systems. Gamer and Creator Peripherals: which represents around 25% of net revenue, includes gaming mice, keyboards, and headsets, streaming gear, and high performance console controllers. Gaming Components Systems: which represents around 75% of net revenue includes computer cases, power supply units (PSU), high performance memory products (40% of net revenue), and custom-built gaming systems. Acquisitions and Partnerships: During 3Q 2020 Corsair acquired Gamer Sensei, a gaming coaching platform, EpocCam, an app that allows iPhones to serve as a webcam, and partnered with Pipeline, a course-based education platform for streamers. Industry Market Size According to Jon Peddie Research, the global gaming and streaming gear markets is expected to reach $40B by the end of 2020. Before the pandemic JPR estimated the market to grow at a modest 1.05% CAGR until 2022. However, during 2020 the market has grown an estimated 10% year-over-year. Additionally, DFC Intelligence research estimated that the video-game coaching market surpasses $1B. Industry Fundamentals Growth in the gaming and streaming gear industries are driven by strong and robust fundamentals. Popularity of gaming is increasing: According to Newzoo, there are an estimated 2.7B gamers worldwide, which are expected to spend $159B on games in 2020 and is expected to grow at an 8.3% CAGR to exceed $200B by 2023. PC and console gaming represents 51% of the total market, and mobile gaming 49%. Corsair has stated that currently there is no interest in expanding to the mobile gaming market. Tech-driven improvements in game quality: Advances in computer power have enabled gaming platforms to provide increasingly immersive experiences. This in turn, places increased demand on high-performance computing hardware. Increasing gaming and streaming engagement: Some interesting facts reported in the Limelight Networks’ State of Online Gaming 2019 research report include:
On average, video gamers spend six hours and 20 minutes each week playing video games
More than 38% of gamers would like to become professionals if it could support themselves
Gamers from novice to aspiring professionals report missing daily activities due to gaming, missed sleep is the most pervasive
Watching gamers play video games online is more popular than watching traditional sports for 18-25 year olds.
The eSports and streaming flywheel The rise in popularity and viewership of eSports brings more investment from publishers, sponsors, advertisers, team owners, and leagues to the eSports industry. Increased investment brings more players and increased performance focus of gamers who advance from less engaged gaming to high-performance gameplay, which in turn brings more viewers. Competitive Landscape & Risks Competition The gaming and streaming market is characterized by intense competition, constant price pressure and rapid change. Competition across Corsair’s product offering includes: Gaming keyboards and mice - Logitech and Razer Headsets and related audio products -Logitech, Razer, and HyperX Streaming gear - Logitech and AVerMedia Performance controllers - Microsoft and Logitech PSUs, cooling solutions, and computer cases - Cooler Master, NZXT, EVGA, Seasonic, and Thermaltake High performance memory - G.Skill, HyperX, and Micron Pre-built and custom-built gaming PCs - Alienware (Dell), Omen (HP), Asus, Razer, iBuypower and Cyberpower Competitive Strategy The company follows a differentiation leadership strategy by prioritizing high-performance and professional quality and charging a price premium on their products in exchange for superior quality, high value added features, and superior brand recognition. Market Share According to NPD Group, by 2020 Corsair had #1 market share position in the US in its gaming components and systems products with 42% of the market share from 26% in 2015. Their gamer and creator peripheral products are not yet market leaders, however, the company increased its market share in that segment from 5% in 2013 to 18% by 2020 in the US. Growth Strategy Move into the Asia Pacific region: The Asia Pacific Region represents a long-term growth opportunity. According to Newzoo, they represent 54% of the global gaming community. Complimentary acquisitions: Corsair has carried out this strategy aggressively since 2018 with the acquisitions of Elgato Gaming, Origin PC, SCUF and Gamer Sensei. They plan to continue evaluating and pursuing new acquisitions that may strengthen their competitive position. New Markets: Uses of streaming gear has spread into areas including, podcasting, video blogging, interactive fitness, remote learning, and work-from-home, which represent a promising avenue for continued expansion in this product segment. Threat of New Entrants Because of the continued convergence between the computing devices and consumer electronics markets, increased competition from well-established consumer electronics companies is expected in the gaming and streaming peripherals segment (e.g. use of Audio-technica microphones by streamers). Threat of Substitution A significant medium- to long-term risk for Corsair’s business model is the evolution of cloud computing and augmented/virtual reality entertainment. Cloud computing refers to a computing environment in which software is run on third-party servers and accessed by end users over the internet, requiring minimal processing power from the end-user’s system. Through cloud computing, gamers will be able to access and play sophisticated games without the need of expensive high-performance PC systems and components. According to Grand View Research, the global cloud gaming market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 48% from 2020 to reach $7.2B by 2027. Additionally, Corsair must be able to adapt its product offering to meet the needs of the evolving augmented/virtual reality industry. Moats There does not seem to be any relevant, structural moats, that may prohibit competitors from capturing Corsair’s market share across their product offering. Other Relevant Risks Due to the concentration of their production facilities in Taiwan and China, Corsair may be adversely by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. Financial Summary Proforma Balance Sheet https://postimg.cc/QHgY1ZxL Income Statement https://postimg.cc/qNkbGDzN For the 9 months ended September 2020 compared to the same period last year: The 49% increase in net revenue is mostly attributed to a large number of consumers gaming and working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic. The company’s gross margin is influenced by its product mix for the period, gamer and creator peripherals have a higher gross margin (25-35%) than gaming components and systems (15-25%). Proforma Cashflow Statement https://postimg.cc/XXCzNyRY Cash used in investing activities consists primarily on the acquisitions of Elgato in 2018, and SCUF and Origin PC in 2019. Peer Comparison https://postimg.cc/Whcfd1V6 Logitech International (LOGI) and Micron Technologies (MU) Why am I posting this now? I believe they are going to have very strong 4th quarter 2020 earning results. 2020 had record pc sales,and pc video games has reported record numbers of players. They are in my opinion the leading pc peripherals brand for gamers. They also have strong support from wallstreetbets. Record pc sales: https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/record-pc-sales-in-2020-as-covid-limits-work-education-to-homes/story/427858.html#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20data,units%20in%20Q4%20of%202020&text=COVID%2D19%20pandemic%20has%20turned,personal%20computer%20(PC)%20industry%20industry). Google trends: https://imgur.com/oKPn6R5 My price target for this earnings: $55 disclaimer:I am not a financial advisor. Do not trade based on the information I have posted. credit: u/italiansomali and u/erythaean
Good Morning All! One month ago, I submitted a post regarding Unifi Talk Here showing my personal review of the product as a whole after a couple days of testing. I would like to expand on that post showing to what I am seeing after about of a month of testing and using the products! Again as of before, these opinions and reviews are purely my own, and are used to perhaps provide some insight on this upcoming product! Unifi Talk is currently in Beta and is expected to have bugs that they are working out, and this should be kept in mind if you are looking to purchase the products for yourself. Here are the current versions I am running: UDM Pro: 1.8.6 Talk Controller: 1.9.1 Unifi Talk: 1.2.342 Starting off, I would like to thank the Ubiquiti team! They do seem to be working on a consistent basis on the products, and Talk has received a couple of major updates that have drastically improved the product each time. Protect:PROTECT WORKS NOW! The stream on the Protect App, has the live view accompanied by the timeline. There also is no timeout on the screen, so it will stay up whenever protect is running. Whenever you get a call though, it automatically switches to the Talk app, though the process of switching takes 2-3 seconds to do, while the phone is still ringing in the mean time. This still provides an ample opportunity to answer the call, but may be an inconvenience to some. I ran into a couple of annoying talk issues that I didn't notice before. Phone Call Quality: When answering a call there appears to be what I can best describe as an audio syncing delay for a few seconds. This is actually a massive issue for those using the phones for business use, and if a call representative answers the phone with a script. The person on the other end may only hear the latter half of the script, which offers very poor customer experience. I found that I ended up waiting a few seconds after answering the phone before I said "hello". I would suggest that the Unifi team looks into that issue as a major fault, especially this being a business product, expected to be used in offices and call centers. Another issue that everyone wanting to experiment with Talk should keep in mind is to make sure that the phone has enough bandwidth. It takes very little considering it is only voice, however if you are downloading a game from Steam for example without throttling (depending on your internet speed), whoever you are talking to will hear you breaking up on their end. Though this should be fixable though the UDM Network settings to give the phone priority, I would recommend that voice be given priority over most other traffic as a default setting. Moving on to the Talk Controller interface, I found that there was an issue that I constantly ran into when reviewing my calls. Call Log: You are able to create contacts on both the talk device and the controller which are synced instantly. Creating and mass importing contacts is incredibly easy to do, and they work well EXCEPT for the call log.... The call log on the controller only shows phone numbers, not the contacts. For example, if you had 555-555-1234 assigned to Bob as a contact, in the call log you would still only see the number 555-555-1234, not Bob's name. There is no way to associate the phone number with the contact in the call log. The log recognizes Talk users as contacts, and will use their names, but not regular contacts. This makes it extremely difficult if you make a lot of calls and need to see the last time you spoke with Bob, especially if you do not have his number memorized. You would have to go to Contacts, find Bob, copy his number, go back to the call log, and past the number in the search field. If the number is in your contacts, it needs to show the name of the contact, not their number. I think the information still needs to be shown once you open the entry for the call, but not on the main view. Another (perhaps bug) that I found with the call log was the consistency to how the numbers are presented. A part of the issue is user-based, but odd nonetheless. All incoming calls (us-based) would start with +1 555 555 1234, however the outgoing calls would be different. If the person was in your contacts that you called, it would show as the same (+1 555 555 1234), but if you called the number directly, it would appear how you dialed it, without the spaces. (5555551234). This is mainly a consistency issue, not necessarily a major bug. Talk Dashboard: On the main Talk dashboard, I found that the system status message would occasionally go from "System Performance is Great!" to "Needs Attention" with no rhyme or reason. The message usually goes away quickly or with a refresh, but if you are comparing to my Call Experience Log, its hasn't gotten below 99%. There has been no issue with the call experience when it tells me that it needs attention either. I believe that, at least the error I am getting, is a false negative. Voicemail: There is currently no way (that is obvious to me at least) to change the voicemail greeting. Currently the greeting you get is "The person at extension 0001 is not available. Record your message at the tone. Press any key, or stop talking to end the recording." You are able to access the voicemail in the call log as a call recording, however for some reason it shows as a different entry than the actual call. One entry will show as a missed call, and a new entry would show all the same information, but with a different icon. I admittedly haven't looked too deeply into it, but there does not still seem to be a way to customize. No Dark Mode: There is a personal preference that I would like to see implemented as well: Dark Mode. Currently dark mode only works in Settings on Talk, all the other tabs are light. Now for the good stuff that I want to praise them for, and a couple of questions I have received from the last posting. This is to be included over my last posting, so this post focuses more on new issues I found rather than features. Unifi Protect: The biggest improvement that I have seen is that Unifi Protect is now working on the phone. From the previous post, you had to log in and then it would be asking for a few Android-based permissions, just to end up not working at all. It would force you into the Android settings and would not let you move on. Now, its turn key, and functions in nearly the exact same way as it does on my Iphone. The resolution on the Unifi Touch Phone is significantly lower, but you are still definitely able to tell what is in the video stream. Although it does work, It goes off the same interface as a smart phone, so certain features such as Alerts do not work, but the main functionality is there! Whoop Whoop! Call Recording: The Call recording feature continues to impress me. Not only has it been amazing for going back and reviewing calls and reviewed information, they have sped up the experience dramatically. The longer the call, the longer it takes to load, but most load fast. The ability to download the call (.wav) for archiving/sharing/backup is also an amazing feature that has been very useful, especially to hear how you sound to the person on the other end of the call. SIP: I have gotten a lot of questions concerning SIP and everyone's own SIP information. Unfortunately I can't provide a whole lot of information on the process except for starting out the process. For my testing, I am using Unifi everything, so I have not set this up with an external provider. Here are the initial setup attention statements, and here are I can provide a bit of additional information however. I added the screenshot here for Advanced SIP settings. The resource link that they mention can be found here and leads you to Freeswtich.org. Exact phone number selection: HUGE. Midway through writing this, I found a new feature that allows you to select your specific phone number before purchasing! Under the numbers tab, when going to purchase new numbers you are able to search the number registry. You are able to select the country area code, then local area code. Based on that it will give you a drop down showing all available numbers! Huge update and thank you to Ubiquiti! Updating the Phone: I have received a question regarding to how the phone is updated. Its managed in nearly the same way as the Unifi Cameras. Using the devices tab inside of Talk, you can select your device -> Configure > Update. This is also the same way you can reboot the device if it is acting weird. Payments: If you go through Unifi for the phone number, I have went through a couple cycles now for paying them. You have 3000 minutes in the cycle that is included in the $9.99 subscription per number. They refill on the date that is shown on the dashboard. The payment breakdown they provide is here. Phone Numbers VS. Extensions: I've had a few questions regarding how Talk handles both phone numbers and extensions. There was one instance only I have not checked for, and that is what happens when you don't pay the bill. Theoretically since the setup has already been completed, you may still be able to call extensions from the phone, however you would not be able to call outside of the immediate network. You must have a phone number to get initially set up and into the dashboard. You may be able to bypass paying anything by using the free 24 hour trial. The way I view it is that extensions would work one of two ways; if Unifi is making all calls, to the extensions or not, go outside of the UDM pro, then they would fail when you don't pay the bill. However, if the UDM handles all internal calls, regardless of having a phone number or not, you should still be able to make internal calls. This is not something I am able to test at this time. It appears that as long as you have the SIP addresses or are willing to pay, you can have as many phone numbers as you'd like, and you would be able to "tie" them together using the switchboard. Each phone number is able to handle up to 10,000 extensions (x0000 - x9999) per phone number. Example: 2 phone numbers can handle a total of 20,000 total phones) More than enough for any organization. Each phone has to have its own unique extension, however you can create Talk groups, so you can tie in several extensions as a ring group if a certain selection is made. I also noticed from their Early Access site for Unifi Touch phones (currently available as of writing this), they have added a white and gold phone in addition to the standard black and silver. Next are the features that are not implemented, that I would like to see added in which I havn't already mentioned in this or my last post. Dark Mode, transcribe call recordings, ability to change voicemail, ability to use your own audio file for the switchboard options, more fields for contacts, such as multiple numbers (work, office, cell) for each contact and things such as addresses, anti-fingerprint screens. If you have any questions, or would like to see me look into something, please let me know! As always, have an amazing day!
Where is Alicia Navarro? Autistic teenager missing from Arizona since 2019 may have been lured away by an internet predator
Who Is Alicia? At 14, Alicia Christina Navarro was a shy, quiet girl who enjoyed playing online games and reading. She achieved good grades at Bourgade Catholic School but struggled with developmental delays and had been diagnosed with high-functioning autism at age 12. The teen also suffered from severe anxiety, for which she was receiving therapy, and also apparently had a weakened immune system. Like many young people with autism, Alicia preferred to keep to a strict routine and didn’t like crowded public spaces. She often bit her shirt or knuckles when she experienced sensory overload. Alicia also frequently wore the same clothing and shoes over and over, including her favorite white sweatshirt that she was wearing the night she vanished, which her mother attributed to her autism. The teenager preferred to eat a limited number of foods, including chicken nuggets and unsalted french fries from McDonald's. Despite her mental health and developmental challenges, Alicia was happy at home and close to her mother, stepfather, and two siblings. When not at school, Alicia enjoyed playing games and chatting with her friends on Discord, a chat app for gamers. She often stayed up late using her computer. Her mother, Jessica Nunez, stated that she’d once noticed a stranger that Alicia had met online asking for her daughter’s personal information. Nunez quickly corrected the behavior, blocking the man and warning Alicia to never share personal details with people she didn’t know online lest she fall prey to an internet predator. Nunez had also caught Alicia engaged in a text conversation with someone who Nunez believed was older than Alicia “based on the mature content” of their chat. She filed a police report, but nothing came of it and authorities were unable to identify the responsible parties in either situation. Nunez believes that Alicia’s autism made her more trusting than other teens, and thinks that Alicia may not have heeded her warnings. At 14, photos of Alicia depict a girl who appears much younger; she stood 4’5” and weighed only 95 pounds. Her childlike appearance, shy demeanor, and mental health diagnoses may have made her more vulnerable, Nunez believes. Nunez has noted that Alicia had undergone personality changes in the months leading up to her disappearance, including a sudden and intense interest in the comic book series Ironman and its ‘Demon in a Bottle’ arc; her mother purchased one of the books for her prior to her disappearance and the comic vanished along with Alicia. She had also begun wearing heavily perfumed body spray, despite her usual aversion to strong smells, and had begged her mother to purchase concealer and an open-backed shirt (unusually risque for the shy teen) for her. After she and her friends met up with an unnamed boy at the mall one day, Alicia gushed to her mother that he was “quite fit” and became interested in fitness workouts and dietary supplements. Before she vanished, Alicia’s parents discovered a hole in her bedroom window screen that she claimed had been created by a bird. It was apparent to them, however, that the hole had been created from the inside. Nunez suspects that Alicia may have used the hole to pass notes to someone on the outside, and in a photograph of Alicia’s bedroom window, a ladder is visible on the ground below her window. Less than two weeks before she disappeared, Alicia messaged her 20-year-old friend on Oregon on Discord and informed him that she’d sold her beloved Xbox gaming console and that she had a new boyfriend. She also brought up learning how to play electric guitar and suggested that she might join the friend’s band. However, Alicia's friends reported that Alicia seemed to lead two lives: one in the real world, where she was reserved and shy, and another on the internet, where she was more gregarious. They indicated that Alicia frequently exaggerated stories or made statements that were untrue. While this is not uncommon for teenagers, it has made determining the veracity of some of Alicia's statements to her friends difficult. The Day of Alicia’s Disappearance On September 14th, 2019, Alicia spent most of the evening in her upstairs bedroom, ostensibly gaming and chatting with friends online as she often did on the weekends. It was only five days before her 15th birthday. Despite her anxiety about the new school year, she and Nunez had spent the day running errands together and Alicia was reportedly in good spirits, “smiling and laughing” with her mother. Around 1 am, Alicia came downstairs for a glass of water. Nunez was downstairs, waiting for her husband to come home from work. Alicia reportedly asked her mother why she was still awake and then returned to her bedroom. That night, Nunez and Alicia's two siblings fell asleep while Alicia's stepfather dozed off on the couch in front of the TV. No one noticed Alicia leaving the house. The next morning, September 15th, Nunez awoke at 7:00 am to find the back door slightly ajar. She assumed that her husband had accidentally left it open, but he told her that he had not been in the backyard the previous evening. Nunez became concerned and rushed upstairs to find Alicia’s bedroom empty. Her laptop, a silver Apple Macbook, and her silver iPhone 6 were missing, but the chargers for both devices had been left behind. She had left behind the laptop she used for school as well as a desktop computer that she used to play online games. Also missing were a bottle of perfume and an expensive Ironman comic book that she’d apparently begged her mother for prior to disappearing. She had left a note behind, penned in her signature scrawl: “I ran away. I will be back. I swear. I’m sorry.” In the backyard, Nunez discovered chairs had been dragged outside and stacked against the brick wall. In the vicinity and on the chairs were footprints that matched Alicia’s sneakers. It appeared that Alicia had packed her items into a small black backpack and used the chairs to climb over two walls in the backyard. Her mother noted that doing so would have helped Alicia avoid being captured on their neighbor’s security cameras. That’s where the trail went cold. For all that Glendale PD and her parents could determine, it seemed as though Alicia had climbed out of her backyard and then simply vanished into the night. Glendale Police Department interviewed all registered sex offenders within a one-mile radius of Alicia’s home but to no avail. They also stated that they were unable to trace either her laptop or cell phone as both devices were turned off. Authorities have been unclear as to exactly why they’re unable to trace Alicia’s phone and laptop. Two weeks after her disappearance, police took her gaming desktop as evidence; Nunez has indicated that authorities have searched chat logs from that computer and may have also accessed her social media profiles (such as her Discord and Facebook pages) for clues. Alicia’s mother has also stated that “these people were smart not to talk on the computer”, meaning that whoever Alicia was contacting may have done so using less-traceable means. It’s not clear whether or not authorities have gained access to her social media pages and online gaming profiles, but Alicia’s social media hasn’t been active since she vanished in 2019. PrincessandPenguin (spelling unclear) is one of the usernames that she’s used in the past, but other screennames are being withheld by law enforcement due to the ongoing investigation. What Happened to Alicia? There has been little headway in the investigation since Alicia vanished in September of 2019. Nunez believes that her daughter was the victim of an internet predator who groomed the teen online, perhaps via some of the games that she frequently played. She thinks that someone may have convinced Alicia to meet up with them in real life and then abducted her. Alicia’s autism and her related lowered inhibition could have made her more vulnerable to online predators. The items that Alicia brought with her may lend credence to this theory. Alicia left home with only the clothing on her back (her favorite white sweatshirt, a bleached denim skirt, and high-top Vans sneakers) and with minimal personal effects. She brought both her iPhone and Macbook when she left home but didn’t bring the chargers for either item, indicating that she might have not planned to be gone for long or perhaps had been told that whoever she was meeting up with had chargers for her cell phone and laptop that she could borrow. Interestingly, as another Redditor noted in a comment on another Alicia-related post in this sub, the Ironman comic that she brought (worth over 200 dollars) contains a plotline that features the protagonist scaling a wall to break out of prison. Could this have possibly inspired Alicia’s early-morning escape from her family’s home? Is it possible that she was planning to meet up with someone who convinced her to bring the comic along? Nunez has stated that she never saw Alicia actually reading the comic book which lends credence to the theory that she may have purchased it for someone else. Alicia also brought with her the new perfume and makeup, which may suggest that she’d been groomed into an online romance with whoever she was potentially planning to meet the night of the 14th. Was it someone who posed as a same-age peer? Or was Alicia, like so many other young girls groomed by sexual predators, convinced that an older man displaying an interest in her was flattering, a sign of ‘coolness’ and maturity? Alicia’s friends at school have stated that she was carrying around a ‘burner phone’, likely a cheap cell phone that can be purchased at gas stations or chain stores like Walmart, in the weeks prior to her disappearance. It seems plausible that the burner phone may have been given to her by whoever Alicia planned to meet up with the night she went missing. However, Alicia did not tell her friends what the phone was for or how she’d obtained it. Cheap burner phones are often used by children who are groomed and exploited by adults as they allow the victim’s usual phone to remain free of evidence like text messages and photos that may otherwise raise red flags for caregivers. Another one of Alicia’s friends has stated that Alicia had mentioned running away to California only days before her disappearance and even invited the friend to join her. The friend didn't think that Alicia was serious and didn't tell any adults about the comment until after Alicia had vanished. The aforementioned burner phone (if it indeed existed) was not recovered amongst Alicia’s belongings, meaning that she likely took it with her when she left the house. Now, a year and five months since Alicia vanished without a trace, Nunez continues to press law enforcement to investigate the teenager’s disappearance as an abduction. She believes that Alicia was lured from the house that night in 2019 by a predator and is possibly being held against her will. She also feels that Alicia’s disappearance should not have been initially dismissed as a simple runaway case, especially given her small stature, younger appearance, and autism. Nunez has also made it clear that Alicia’s disappearance likely would have been treated differently, and with more urgency, if she had been a middle-class white teenager. Prevailing theory amongst internet sleuths and Alicia’s own family still holds that she was lured away from home by someone she met online. Law enforcement’s actions, such as confiscating her desktop computer and combing Discord chat logs, may indicate that they too suspect the tech-savvy teen was convinced to leave home by an internet predator. It wouldn’t be the first time that a vulnerable autistic teenager was lured into danger by an online predator. In 2017, a 16-year-old autistic Baltimore high schooler was found in a local apartment complex after she used a web-based chat app to communicate with an older man. And in 2018, an 18-year-old woman with autism was kidnapped from her Arkansas home and taken to rural Washington state by a 50-year-old man she’d met online. The perpetrator had attempted to befriend over 8,000 other children via social media prior to kidnapping the 18-year-old. Given how well-versed in technology Alicia was, and how comfortable she was using social media to communicate with people she’d never met in real life, it seems plausible that the teenager could have been coerced into leaving home by someone like the aforementioned predators: pedophiles who prey on vulnerable youth with few real-world friends, who they know can be easily manipulated into doing their bidding. Since Alicia’s disappearance in the fall of 2019, there have been several non-credible sightings of the teenager, including one at a gas station and another in which Alicia was supposedly wandering a homeless encampment. One supposed sighting at a park a mile from Alicia’s home brought Nunez rushing to the scene; witnesses claimed that a girl matching Alicia’s description had been sighted holding hands with a dark-skinned man with neck tattoos. A 25-year-old man matching that description would later be caught in a police sting designed to catch internet predators. He was indicted for “luring of a minor” and “attempted sex conduct with a minor”, but it’s unknown if he was ever seriously investigated in Alicia’s disappearance. Other witnesses have cropped up occasionally with leads but disappeared after offering little to no information, perhaps fearing for their own safety. The case was turned over to the FBI in 2020, but it’s unknown if federal involvement has continued. Alicia is now 16 years old. She was last seen wearing a white sweatshirt with multi-colored writing on it, a bleached denim overall skirt, and high-top Vans sneakers. She is a Hispanic female with brown hair and brown eyes. At the time of her disappearance, Alicia wore braces. She has a scar on her left knuckle. At the time of her disappearance, she stood 4’5” and weighed approximately 95 pounds. She enjoys online gaming and reading and dislikes large crowds. Her favorite food is McDonald's chicken nuggets and unsalted french fries. Alicia needs medication that she does not have with her. Due to the circumstances involved, she is considered an endangered missing person. https://charleyproject.org/case/alicia-christian-navarro https://coppercourier.com/story/alicicia-navarro-missing-glendale/ https://www.nbcnews.com/dateline/mother-missing-teenager-autism-alicia-navarro-fears-she-was-lured-n1167191 https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/glendale-police-family-held-news-conference-one-year-after-alicia-navarro-disappeared
EXTENSIVE write up on the murder of Mackenzie Cowell, 17-year-old high school student killed in Washington State. Was Christopher Scott Wilson convicted of her murder for the crime of being weird in a small town? And is the real murderer walking free? Part 2 of 2
Even though he was nearly 30 years old Chris Wilson always told people that he didn't know what he wanted to be when he grew up but he dreamed of being a guitarist in a band. He had a hard time holding down jobs and never worked in one place for very long. In his late twenties his mom bought a hair salon in Wenatchee and Chris decided to start attending the Academy of Hair Design in order to maybe follow in her footsteps. Throughout his life Chris had a number relationships what different women some serious, some casual. He had even been engaged a time or two. One woman he dated on-again-off-again was named Tessa Shuyleman (Source). We will get more to her later. Descriptions of Chris vary widely depending on who you ask, most people will tell you he liked being different. For years he dyed his hair black, occasionally wore eyeliner, chose to wear clothes that were “punk” or “goth”. Most people will also tell you that Chris Wilson was interested in things dark and macabre. He was obsessed with a show called Dexter which is about a serial killer. He was also interested in dark art and movies. He enjoyed talking about death, and serial killers and most of his time on the internet was spent on serial killer forums. Of course, Chris's friends always have stressed that he wasn't evil; he was just different and had unusual interests. Researching serial killers and liking shows like Dexter after all isn't really that unique. Wilson also sports a tattoo Hannibal Lecter on his forearm. He had been fired from at least one funeral home in Wenatchee due to “inappropriate” behavior that made his boss uncomfortable. Chris's former boss has never elaborated on this statement claiming it was not his place to talk about these things outside of court (source). However, another manager at the funeral home described Chris as an excellent employee (source). One woman who worked with Chris at Academy of Hair Design described him as “intimidating but not physically intimidating.” Other coworkers and neighbors remember Chris as artsy but was otherwise a typical guy (Source). At one point Chris Wilson lived in Ellensburg, Washington and worked at a Goodwill in town. According to some sources, one night his manager discovered him rifling through the dumpster at Goodwill in order to take home a mannequin with him. (Some reports say it was a paper statue.) He told his co-workers that this was for his art. He took the mannequin home, dismembered it and painted it like he murdered body, then shared pictures of this artwork online (Source). Friends of Chris said that he found the mannequin already painted. They claim that he called the police and then photographed the limbs for his art (source). It appears that a police report was made so Chris’s friends may have the more accurate account of this particular event. Wilson told another acquaintance that he strangled a woman to death with a belt in a hotel in Ellensburg (Source). Police said they have no evidence that a murder like this had ever occurred. One classmate interviewed reported that on Halloween The Academy of Hair Design was having a contest. Students were allowed to do a hair and makeup on a mannequin head however they liked, in a type of dress up competition. Wilson took a straight razor to his mannequin’s face and peeled the skin off, something that disturbed her deeply. Others though have said they didn't think it was that weird as it was for a Halloween game (Source). Wilson's love of Dexter, his tattoo, and the mannequin incident were not allowed to be brought up during trial the information was prejudicial rather than probative, but they are all important parts if the story. Chris Wilson's odd behavior aside, law enforcement began looking into Chris's movements on the days around Mackenzie’s disappearance. Security footage showed that Chris Wilson left the Academy of Hair Design within 72 seconds of Mackenzie leaving (Source). He was shown walking across the parking lot at approximately 3:02 p.m. It was also determined that Wilson left through a different door than Mackenzie, which would explain why no one seemed to remember him leaving right after her. In the video, he slinks near the alley rather than walking across the lot (Source). As far as I can remember the Academy of Hair Design was rather open inside, so I think other students would have been able to see Mackenzie from wherever they were in the school, meaning Chris could probably see that Mackenzie left the building. In February 2012, Chris lived in a studio in a building called the Burke Hill apartments. The tenement is across from the courthouse in a sketchy area of town, adjacent to a bail bonds business. The building is on Orondo Street only a few blocks from Academy of Hair Design. When Mackenzie car was last seen, it was actually headed towards Chris Wilson's apartment, which was the opposite direction from the Orondo boat launch. Verizon Wireless was asked if it was possible that Mackenzie's last text messages were sent from Chris Wilson's apartment rather than the Orondo boat launch. When they reviewed the data, they admitted that it was just as likely that Mackenzie was in the vicinity of the Burke Hill apartments, rather than the boat launch (Source). Chris never returned to the Academy of Hair Design that day after leaving at 3:02 p.m. His whereabouts for the rest of the day are unknown and he doesn't have an alibi. His mother claims that at one point he swung by her house to pick up a plate of cupcakes, but it doesn't appear that Chris stayed with her for any amount of time (Source). Chris’s phone went unanswered from 3:30-3:50 pm (source). What we do know is that Chris Wilson had a car, but that a little before 4 p.m. he called his friend asking to borrow this friend's car. His friend said that he could borrow the car until 5 p.m., Chris said he needed the car for a longer but his friend told him that wasn't an option. Chris may have borrowed the car and returned it at 5:15 p.m. Chris’s defense attorneys claim that Chris did not end up actually using the car, and say that video surveillance shows that the car never left its spot in the parking lot (Source). Unfortunately, I could find no other information on this discrepancy, but we do know that Chris did ask to borrow the car on the afternoon of February 9th. From 3:02 pm forward on February 9th, Wilson was in regular phone and text contact with his ex-girlfriend Tessa Shuyleman. Shuyleman and he talked 8 different times in between 3:30 and 6 pm. Shuyleman’s phone records revealed that she was also in contact with her current boyfriend who lived in Quincy, Washington only three miles from Crescent Bar. Tessa called her current boyfriend twice around 6 pm, and then also called him at 9 pm in a panicked state. She said “something really, really bad has happened” and then “please pray for me.” The man thought the request was odd as he described Tessa as “anti-religion.” He could not remember the exact day of this conversation but he believed it to be February 9th or 10th. Phone records showed that the time of the phone calls most likely happened on the 9th. Phone records demonstrated that this 9 pm call as well as another call Tessa made around 10 pm “may have originated in the Quincy area.” Another ex-boyfriend of Shuyleman reported that Tessa came to his home to pick up some things, sometime between Feb. 9th and 13th. He described her as agitated and fidgety. She stayed with him for about twenty minutes but left the residence without collecting any of her things (Source). Additionally, Chris matched the description of the man seen walking down Pitcher Canyon Road, although this description could fit a lot of men in the area. School records show that in the days following the discovery of Mackenzie’s body Wilson was rarely at school, leaving for no reason at all or simply not attending (Source). Chris Wilson was not on anyone's radar until the summer of 2010 when police began re-looking at leads and then finally received the letter from Theo Keyes. In August Wilson, along with other people who worked at the Academy of Hair Design, were interviewed by police. Later that month police got a warrant to DNA test students at the Academy thus obtaining Chris Wilson's DNA. Court documents say that Wilson gave his DNA willingly. Wilson's profile was sent to the crime lab. Wilson did not match the DNA in Mackenzie’s car, fingernail, or on the murder weapon, but his DNA was consistent with the one of the male profiles found on the duct tape at Crescent Bar. With this information police asked Wilson to come down to the station again to be interviewed. Law enforcement agents asked him if he had ever been to Crescent bar. Wilson denied this and was promptly placed under arrest for the murder of Mackenzie Cowell (Source). Detective John Kruse claimed that at this point, Chris looked at him blankly with no emotion on his face, and didn’t deny the accusation instead saying “I think I need a lawyer.” (Source). Soon Chris Wilson's strange behavior and hobbies we're common knowledge among the people of Wenatchee. Pictures showed that he went to Mackenzie's funeral (Source). Chris Wilson claimed he did not know Mackenzie and had never talked to her before, although he did admit that he knew who she was. Subsequent interviews with the people who worked at the Academy of Hair Design revealed this wasn't exactly true. Many people remember Mackenzie talking to Chris. One person even described a relationship or friendship developing between the two. One woman claimed that Chris Wilson had told her that he found the Mackenzie “hot” (source). Adversely, Chris's mother claims that Mackenzie and Chris we're not friends on Facebook or Myspace even though they both used those websites. She also claimed Chris and Mackenzie never talked on their cell phones (Source), which is far as I can tell is accurate. Chris's friends stated that while Chris talked about some people he worked with at Academy of Hair Design, they never remember him mentioning Mackenzie (Source). After his arrest police looked at Chris's cell phone records and his computer. They also located his car in Spokane, Washington which he had sold in April 2010 (Source). LE thoroughly searched the apartment he was living in which was the basement of Salon Couture, a building which his mother owned. Police ripped apart the apartment not realizing that this was not the apartment Chris was living in at the time of Mackenzie's disappearance and murder. They reported to the newspaper that luminol test showed blood in the stairwell. The blood was sent to the crime lab, which revealed that the blood did not belong to Mackenzie. One woman who worked at the salon recalled that when the salon was being painted a painter had cut his hand in the stairwell (Source). The blood was not connected to the case and police instead got a warrant to search the studio that Chris was living at in the Burke Hill apartments months earlier. Chris had vacated his apartment in June of 2010. On Chris's computer police found some strange photographs as well as two strange videos. The photograph, which is not publicly available, is allegedly of Tessa Shuyleman laying on the floor of Chris's apartment posing as if she is dead on top of a brownish stain. Tessa gave two different explanations of this photo. In one explanation Tessa said that she had passed out drunk in Chris's apartment where he snapped the photo (Source). Another time she said that Chris and asked her to lie on the ground and then he took a photo. Tessa also said that she had no memory of anything that happened from February 9th to 13th and that she was not involved in the disappearance of Mackenzie. The videos featuring both Tessa and Chris we're taken on June 26th and June 30th. They feature someone carrying around a camera and videotaping parts of the empty apartment. On the video from June 26th a brown reddish stain can be seen on the carpet. Right before the video ends, the videographer zooms directly in this stain, before going to the bathtub panning around the bathtub and then cutting off. In the June 30th film which is very similar, Chris and Tessa can be heard talking. Chris says “does it look clean in here?” and Tessa says, “clean for…? clean considering what's…. happening? Yes I think it's clean” and then zooms in again on the exact same part of the carpet but now the stain is barely visible (Source)(Source). Chris said he made the videos in order to show his landlord so that he could get his deposit back. He also said the stain on the carpet was from a party when someone had knocked over bong water. He said the stain smelled really bad so he cleaned it with Simply Green and got the stain out (Source). Some of Chris’s supporters say that the video shows nothing at all but others say the video is very damning, especially the remarks that Tessa makes. When police entered the apartment and sprayed the area with luminol, the stain lit up. The carpet and carpet pad were cut away and sent to the State Crime Lab. The piece of carpet was very small, only a few inches square (Source). The State Crime Lab was able to determine that the stain was blood that belonged to Mackenzie Cowell (Source). This piece of evidence was the nail in Chris Wilson's coffin. The DA charged Wilson with second-degree murder. The town of Wenatchee was shocked, bit by bit everyone's stories, memories, and recollections about Chris Wilson we're on the front page of the newspaper every day. Chris was arrested in October 2010 with his case would not go to trial until 2012. In early court documents Chris is represented by a public defender Keith Howard, who was once awarded one of the best lawyers in Washington State. Howard explained in court documents that the DNA found on the duct tape was not a complete profile and that the DNA sequence matched thousands of white men, perhaps even dozens of them in Washington State. He also pointed out the fact that Chris Wilson's DNA was not found on the murder weapon nor was there any evidence that Mackenzie had been in his car or that he had been in her car. After all the DNA from Mackenzie's car didn't match Chris Wilson either. Further, there was a second male DNA profile on the duct tape that was someone else entirely. Judge Bridges allocated $10,000 worth of public funds for the DNA to be retested at a private facility in Ohio before going to trial. Howard also discovered one of the DNA profiles found on the murder weapon belonged to a fingerprint analyst at the crime lab in Cheney. He also discovered that the second profile found on the knife could not rule out a deputy who arrived at the crime scene. Howard pointed out how sloppy this made investigators look and reminded the public that the DNA evidence was not as cut-and-dry as it seemed. For example, the profile on the duct tape was a y-str profile. It was not complete and could match one in 2700 males. This particular profile is most common among white men, and excludes all women. One in every 1,047 Caucasian men have this particular sequence, and it would be most common among Chris Wilson's relatives (Source). Chris Wilson however, had no male relatives living in the area as he was not a Wenatchee native. Chris’ biological father is unknown. His siblings do not share his y-str DNA as they have a different father than Chris. Early on in my research did the math, and this profile could have belonged to approximately 7-14 people in Wenatchee- more if you include the outlying areas. While is it is not 100% matchable to Chris Wilson, it is a pretty good indicator when coupled with other evidence. Everyone thought the case with the DNA evidence was a slam dunk, but then Chelan County district attorney did something that shocked everyone. He offered Chris Wilson a plea deal. 6 1/2 years for manslaughter if he would only plead guilty (Source). The move astonished the community. Chris Wilson rejected the deal saying he wanted to go to trial so that the truth could come out. Preliminary hearings were held with Chris Wilson's new attorney John Henry Browne, a very prestigious lawyer out of Seattle. Browne has defended some famous criminals such as Ted Bundy and the Colton Harris Moore- the Barefoot Bandit. Browne planned on calling Liz Reid to the stand and throwing suspicion at suspects like Cerros, Cuevas, Joaquin Villasano, and Joey Fisher. He argued that all of these men had motive which his client Chris Wilson did not have (Source). Browne also defended some people in 1995 during what was dubbed the Wenatchee Witch Hunt (Source). Many of us in the true crime community have heard of satanic panic. In the 1980s and 90s teachers, daycare workers, and others that worked with children were accused all across the country of participating in ritualistic abuse of children. There was a variety of very huge trials and scandals. One of the last major satanic panic scandals occurred in 1994 and 1995 and was dubbed the Wenatchee Witch Hunt. All in all, over 40 people were arrested for ritualistic child abuse in the Wenatchee Valley many of them daycare workers, preschool teachers, and Sunday school supervisors. Eventually, all of these trials ended in mistrial, overturned convictions, and acquittals. I This phenomenon is a perfect picture the issues that can arise when people let emotions cloud their judgment, coupled with bad psychological advice, and a misunderstanding of how to interview children. Early on some people were convicted and sadly convections fell along class lines, with wealthier accused typically hiring good lawyers and being acquitted while poor defendants with no options more likely to be convicted. Eventually the state acquitted all of these defendants but several people involved in the Witch Hunt were able to keep their jobs in the Wenatchee Police Department and the DA’s office, including the DA himself (Source). Because of this history John Henry Browne was planning on pushing for the idea that Mackenzie's blood had been planted and Chris Wilson's apartment. And he was planning on using the story of the Wenatchee Witch Hunt to show the jury that law enforcement in the area could not be trusted (Source). Browne’s strategy was a bold one. Many people had a hard time believing that police would collect blood from Mackenzie with the purpose of planting it in the apartment of someone who wasn't even on their radar when they collected the blood. This also assumes that police somehow knew that there was a stain in Chris Wilson's apartment that he would videotape and that they would be able to collect for evidence. Others have wondered why the police would try to frame someone with no criminal past and only vague connections to Mackenzie, when they could have easily framed someone like Buddha Cerros who had a very long criminal record. Police also were in possession of Buddha’s car, so planting evidence wouldn’t have been challenging. Browne has also pointed out the sloppiness of the investigation. Of the three male DNA profiles collected from knife at the scene, one, possibly two, of the three profiles on the knife were determined to have belonged to law enforcement. One belonged to a finger print analyst at the state crime lab near Spokane. Another sample was a partial profile could not exclude one deputy who responded to the crime scene. The third profile is still unknown. Law enforcement has said that while there are steps to avoid contamination, it actually happens often, which is why the DNA of all analysts and officers is kept on file. Police also admitted to moving Mackenzie’s body from the river onto the shore without waiting for a forensics unit. They expressed fear that the body would float away due to dam fluctuations if it was not moved. However, in this event some evidence may have been moved, lost, or damaged (source). Browne also spearheaded the idea that Chris might have been arrested for being weird in a small town. Like many people, Browne was also troubled by the apparent lack of motive that Chris had for killing Mackenzie. Right before trial a change of venue was requested by the defense. While that was being decided many pieces of evidence and information from Chris’ life were ruled inadmissible at trial (Source). Shawna Novak’s testimony along with some of Chris’s "weird" interests were to be supressed. As jury selection got underway, approximately 85% of potential jurors admitted that they already thought Chris Wilson was guilty. A similar number of jurors have followed the case and knew about suppressed evidence (Source). On the day before trial was set to begin, Chris Wilson entered a plea of guilty for Mackenzie's manslaughter and requested the DA's previous deal of six years. The DA countered with a 14-year sentence in exchange for a signed document that said Chris had caused the death of Mackenzie Cowell. Wilson took the plea looking miserable the whole time, and was sentenced to 14 years, with the possibility of getting out in 10 with good behavior. Browne explained to media outlets that sometimes defendants have to do what's best for them which is sometimes taking a plea deal even if they're innocent (Source). As soon as Chris Wilson was placed into prison he immediately tried to go back on his guilty plea and once again claimed he was innocent. Wilson seemed to think that if he did this he would get an immediate retrial or some sort of appeals process but this was not the case and today he is still sitting in Clallam Correctional Facility in Washington State (Source). When the media asked why DA Riesen would offer such a lenient sentence for Wilson, he said that the reasons were two-fold. First, he felt that the jury would want a motive for the crime and he felt he and his team could not provide one, except for that maybe Chris Wilson was interested in becoming a serial killer himself, which is a pretty far-fetched idea. The other issue was is that while Mackenzie's DNA was in Chris's apartment the DA said he had no proof that Chris was there when it happened or that he caused Mackenzie to bleed. This coupled with the fact that his DNA was not on the murder weapon made him feel like his case was not as strong as the people Wenatchee seemed to think it was (Source). There are still many unanswered questions about this case. Chris has maintained his innocence since the moment he was placed into prison. He says he regrets many things about his life especially his Hannibal Lecter tattoo which biased the public against him (Source). The biggest question many have is motive. According to all sources Chris and Mackenzie did not really know each other that well. There were no problems between them, they did not run in the same circles, they were not similar ages, were not in the same “grade” at the Academy, and they apparently did not talk to each other online or on the phone. Mackenzie was not sexually assaulted which doesn't necessarily rule out a sexual motive but it does make things a lot stranger. Further, there's still the question of the unknown DNA on the knife, on the victim’s fingernails, and in her car. These things seem the point to the fact that Chris Wilson must have had an accomplice. But who is he? I discovered one article which claimed that two inmates at the county jail were involved in the crime, although I could find no more detail on this matter (Source). Others including Chris's attorneys have pointed out that Cowell's jugular was cut (Source). Injuries like these produce massive amounts of blood. If Mackenzie was killed in Chris's apartment why was there only a very small patch of blood on his carpet? Some have speculated that Chris may have laid down plastic in his apartment like on the TV show Dexter in order to make his clean up easier. But this would mean that the crime was planned out in advance and it would produce additional evidence such as the bloody plastic sheets. There's also the question of how Chris got Mackenzie into his apartment in broad daylight. Did he invite her up? Mackenzie was an athlete who regularly worked out. At 5’8” she was only a few inches shorter than Chris, who would have had to get her body from his second-floor apartment to his car which was parked on the street, without anyone realizing that he was carrying a bleeding, full grown woman. This further implies that he must have had an accomplice. Police have always theorized that Schuyleman was his accomplice but Tessa was ruled out as being a contributor of any of the DNA in the case. Further, her car was searched but nothing was found. Because of this her charge of aiding and abetting a criminal was dropped. Tessa legally changed her first and last name and moved out of the area as soon as the sentencing concluded. She was never charged with any crime. In the years since this crime the 48 Hours episode and places like Web Sleuths and Reddit have allowed doubt to be thrown on Chris Wilson's conviction. Ever since John Henry Browne pioneered the idea that Wenatchee police are corrupt and planted Mackenzie's blood, people have questioned the validity of the other evidence in the case. I know I was a bit skeptical of police after hearing this but when I started doing my research, I realized the police might be able to plant physical evidence, but they cannot plant circumstantial evidence, and there was a good amount of circumstantial evidence that points to Wilson as the perpetrator. I am very perturbed by the lack of motive and by the four unknown male DNA profiles, one on Mackenzie's steering wheel, the duct tape, her fingernails, and the other on the murder weapon as it makes me feel like there's much more to the story and that murderers are potentially walking free. It was a surreal experience to have everyone in the area so convinced of Wilson’s guilt in 2012, only to have everyone start questioning their convictions after the 2014 CBS special revealed new or different information only a few years later. Wilson supporters online have even wondered if homophobia is to blame for Wilson's arrest. Chris Wilson was definitely different, his dyed hair and penchant for eyeliner apparently made some people assume that he was gay even though he describes himself as heterosexual. Also he was one of only 3 male students at the hair academy (source). Personally, I have always found this a bit of a stretch as Wilson's on-again-off-again girlfriend was arrested with him, but I will not rule it out as I am sure Wilson has been on the receiving end of some not-so-nice comments especially in a small town like Wenatchee. I don't mean to say that a homophobia does not happen, but I don't think it was Chris's dyed hair that made people view him suspiciously rather, it was his odd behavior and frankly disturbing interests. For this I would say that his weird behavior is more to blame than homophobia. A lot of men dye their hair, but few dismember and paint mannequins like murder victims. At the end of the day, homophobia was the least of Chris Wilson’s worries. Others have pointed to Liz Reed’s testimony and a question why Reid’s story was thrown out while Keyes’ story was believed. When asked why DA Gary Reisen trusted Keyes rather than Reid, Reisen said that Keyes’ story had merit. Not only did party goers back up his account of the choking incident, DNA confirmed Keyes’ suspicions about Wilson. Reid said that Liz’s story about Cuevas and Cerros is nothing but “blatant hearsay.” “Show me one thing that connects Cuevas to this crime,” says Risen, “One thing. There is nothing.” Many locals are still skeptical of Buddha Cerros and Sam Cuevas. I remember at one point Buddha was working at a grocery store or convenience store and people would always side-eye him. Buddha has always said he is not involved and Liz Reid is someone who likes to ruin other people's lives. Sadly, Sam Cuevas has passed away but it appears that he did not get into any more legal trouble after his first run-in with the law. Cerros has always denied involvement and says that he's not a violent person and that he is trying his best to live an honest life, but as of 2020 Buddha was in prison yet again for heroin charge. Other Things A few things I wanted to mention but could not find a place for are theories for motive as well as Wilson’s lack of denial. Amateur detectives have long wondered what Chris Wilson’s motive was for the crime. My mom for example, has always speculated that Chris offered to sell Mackenzie drugs or even alcohol, which prompted her to meet Chris. Obviously, Cowell thought this would be a quick encounter and for whatever reason the exchange went sour and ended with Mackenzie’s death. I can find no indication that either Chris or Mackenzie used drugs, but this would explain why Mackenzie went to meet Chris and why she possibly entered his apartment willingly. It also explains that while Chris and Mackenzie left at around the same time, but they were trying to look like they weren't leaving together. Another theory is that Chris met up with Mackenzie and made a sexual advance that she rebuffed, ending in murder. A third theory is that Mackenzie knew that Chris was doing something unsavory at work (such as selling drugs or stealing money) and she threatened to tell. This could have led to an altercation. An alternative theory is that Chris Wilson was a burgeoning serial killer who simply wanted to commit a murder. Finally, some have wondered if Chris Wilson worked with Cerros and Cuevas to kill Mackenzie although it doesn’t seem like there is any evidence the men knew each other together. I do not mean to accuse Mackenzie of being a drug user or imply any other negative behavior as there's really no evidence for any of these theories, but I did want to mention them in the name of being thorough. Another thing that deserves a mention in this piece is Chris Wilson’s lack of denial. Although Chris has maintained his innocence since landing in prison, audio and video interviews with him show something interesting. Whenever Chris is asked if he killed Mackenzie or hurt Mackenzie or was involved in Mackenzie's murder, he doesn't really deny it. Instead, he answers with a question such as, “where did you hear that?” or “who is saying that about me?” It is a little bit odd to me as it seems like he deflects questions does not answer them head-on. Like many things in this case this fact alone does not feel guilt or innocence, but it is part the story that I wanted to include. Timeline
Mackenzie left the Academy of Hair Design at 208 S. Wenatchee Avenue at 3 pm, asking a classmate if she had to sign out if she was only going to be gone 15 minutes. Mackenzie left the area on foot and walked to her car in a lot behind the salon. Classmates assumed that she was leaving to get coffee at her favorite stand, a place called Auto Mocha which was only a five-minute drive away.
3:01 pm surveillance video shows Mackenzie walking to her car, getting in, and driving away.
3:02 pm Chris Wilson seen on surveillance video exiting the salon and driving away within one minute of Mackenzie leaving. Chris left the salon out a different door so no one initially remembered him leaving right after her.
~3:02 pm security video shows Mackenzie’s car driving west on Kittitas St. towards Chris Wilson’s apartment
3:26 pm Mackenzie texts her boyfriend “hey”
3:02-3:33 Wilson texts Shuyleman 4 times
3:33-3:50 pm, Wilson does not answer his phone
3:42 pm Joaquin Villasano texts back “hey” This is the last activity on her phone.
~3:50 pm Chris Wilson calls his friend and asks to borrow his car at 4 pm, despite having his own car.
4-5:15 pm Chris borrows friend’s car (possibly)
4:04 - 4:08 pm Chris calls Shuyleman and is one the phone for 4 minutes
4:36 and 5:03 p.m. Chris calls Shuyleman 4 times- one minute each time
5:42 pm Mackenzie’s phone “pings” presumably when it is shut off.
~ 4:30-5:30 pm Mackenzie’s car is abandoned in Pitcher Canyon. A man walking away from the car who vaguely resembles Chris Wilson, seen by three locals walking down the road toward town
5:40 pm Reid Cowell calls Mackenzie- her phone goes straight to voicemail. He continues to call.
~6 pm Shuyleman calls her boyfriend who lives in Crescent Bar twice, it does not appear that he answered
8 pm a rancher calls police to report that a red sedan has been abandoned near his driveway since at least 7 pm
9:10 pm Shuyleman calls her boyfriend in a panicked state and says “something really bad has happened” and then “please pray for me.” The call may have come from the Quincy area.
A little before 10 pm a police officer is dispatched to assess the abandoned car, he runs the plate and calls the owner, Reid Cowell, who explains that his daughter is missing.
10 pm Reid Cowell and Mackenzie’s boyfriend Joaquin arrive at the scene. The car is empty but Mackenzie’s purse and her gym bag full of clothes are in the car. Only her phone and keys are missing. There are only one set of footprints in the snow; they lead away from the car towards the road.
Shuyleman and Wilson called and texted “several times” between 10:35 p.m. and 11:09 p.m.
February 13th 1 pm a body is found floating in the Columbia River. Two days later it is identified as Mackenzie Cowell
Corsair Gaming ($CRSR) Redefining gaming, eSports, and streaming Company Overview Corsair Gaming is an American computer hardware and peripherals company founded in 1994 and headquartered in California. They acquired Elgato Gaming in 2018 to expand to the streaming gear market, Origin PC and SCUF gaming in 2019 to expand into the custom-built PC systems and console controllers markets, respectively, and during 2020 they acquired Gamer Sensei and EpocCam, and partnered with Pipeline to grow into the gaming and streaming coaching market. Corsair went public on September 23, 2020, with its IPO priced at $17, valuing the company at about $1.3B. Understanding the Business Value Proposition Corsair provides specialized, high-performance gear for gamers and streamers. Their products are designed to provide speed and reliability for competitive gaming, high quality content for streamers, and powerful PC components that allows gamers to run modern games smoothly. Revenue Streams Currently, Corsair groups its product offering into two segments: gamer and creator peripherals and gaming components and systems. Gamer and Creator Peripherals: which represents around 25% of net revenue, includes gaming mice, keyboards, and headsets, streaming gear, and high performance console controllers. Gaming Components Systems: which represents around 75% of net revenue includes computer cases, power supply units (PSU), high performance memory products (40% of net revenue), and custom-built gaming systems. Acquisitions and Partnerships: During 3Q 2020 Corsair acquired Gamer Sensei, a gaming coaching platform, EpocCam, an app that allows iPhones to serve as a webcam, and partnered with Pipeline, a course-based education platform for streamers. Industry Market Size According to Jon Peddie Research, the global gaming and streaming gear markets is expected to reach $40B by the end of 2020. Before the pandemic JPR estimated the market to grow at a modest 1.05% CAGR until 2022. However, during 2020 the market has grown an estimated 10% year-over-year. Additionally, DFC Intelligence research estimated that the video-game coaching market surpasses $1B. Industry Fundamentals Growth in the gaming and streaming gear industries are driven by strong and robust fundamentals. Popularity of gaming is increasing: According to Newzoo, there are an estimated 2.7B gamers worldwide, which are expected to spend $159B on games in 2020 and is expected to grow at an 8.3% CAGR to exceed $200B by 2023. PC and console gaming represents 51% of the total market, and mobile gaming 49%. Corsair has stated that currently there is no interest in expanding to the mobile gaming market. Tech-driven improvements in game quality: Advances in computer power have enabled gaming platforms to provide increasingly immersive experiences. This in turn, places increased demand on high-performance computing hardware. Increasing gaming and streaming engagement: Some interesting facts reported in the Limelight Networks’ State of Online Gaming 2019 research report include:
On average, video gamers spend six hours and 20 minutes each week playing video games
More than 38% of gamers would like to become professionals if it could support themselves
Gamers from novice to aspiring professionals report missing daily activities due to gaming, missed sleep is the most pervasive
Watching gamers play video games online is more popular than watching traditional sports for 18-25 year olds.
The eSports and streaming flywheel The rise in popularity and viewership of eSports brings more investment from publishers, sponsors, advertisers, team owners, and leagues to the eSports industry. Increased investment brings more players and increased performance focus of gamers who advance from less engaged gaming to high-performance gameplay, which in turn brings more viewers. Competitive Landscape & Risks Competition The gaming and streaming market is characterized by intense competition, constant price pressure and rapid change. Competition across Corsair’s product offering includes: Gaming keyboards and mice - Logitech and Razer Headsets and related audio products -Logitech, Razer, and HyperX Streaming gear - Logitech and AVerMedia Performance controllers - Microsoft and Logitech PSUs, cooling solutions, and computer cases - Cooler Master, NZXT, EVGA, Seasonic, and Thermaltake High performance memory - G.Skill, HyperX, and Micron Pre-built and custom-built gaming PCs - Alienware (Dell), Omen (HP), Asus, Razer, iBuypower and Cyberpower Competitive Strategy The company follows a differentiation leadership strategy by prioritizing high-performance and professional quality and charging a price premium on their products in exchange for superior quality, high value added features, and superior brand recognition. Market Share According to NPD Group, by 2020 Corsair had #1 market share position in the US in its gaming components and systems products with 42% of the market share from 26% in 2015. Their gamer and creator peripheral products are not yet market leaders, however, the company increased its market share in that segment from 5% in 2013 to 18% by 2020 in the US. Growth Strategy Move into the Asia Pacific region: The Asia Pacific Region represents a long-term growth opportunity. According to Newzoo, they represent 54% of the global gaming community. Complimentary acquisitions: Corsair has carried out this strategy aggressively since 2018 with the acquisitions of Elgato Gaming, Origin PC, SCUF and Gamer Sensei. They plan to continue evaluating and pursuing new acquisitions that may strengthen their competitive position. New Markets: Uses of streaming gear has spread into areas including, podcasting, video blogging, interactive fitness, remote learning, and work-from-home, which represent a promising avenue for continued expansion in this product segment. Threat of New Entrants Because of the continued convergence between the computing devices and consumer electronics markets, increased competition from well-established consumer electronics companies is expected in the gaming and streaming peripherals segment (e.g. use of Audio-technica microphones by streamers). Threat of Substitution A significant medium- to long-term risk for Corsair’s business model is the evolution of cloud computing and augmented/virtual reality entertainment. Cloud computing refers to a computing environment in which software is run on third-party servers and accessed by end users over the internet, requiring minimal processing power from the end-user’s system. Through cloud computing, gamers will be able to access and play sophisticated games without the need of expensive high-performance PC systems and components. According to Grand View Research, the global cloud gaming market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 48% from 2020 to reach $7.2B by 2027. Additionally, Corsair must be able to adapt its product offering to meet the needs of the evolving augmented/virtual reality industry. Moats There does not seem to be any relevant, structural moats, that may prohibit competitors from capturing Corsair’s market share across their product offering. Other Relevant Risks Due to the concentration of their production facilities in Taiwan and China, Corsair may be adversely by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. Financial Summary Proforma Balance Sheet https://postimg.cc/QHgY1ZxL Income Statement https://postimg.cc/qNkbGDzN For the 9 months ended September 2020 compared to the same period last year: The 49% increase in net revenue is mostly attributed to a large number of consumers gaming and working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic. The company’s gross margin is influenced by its product mix for the period, gamer and creator peripherals have a higher gross margin (25-35%) than gaming components and systems (15-25%). Proforma Cashflow Statement https://postimg.cc/XXCzNyRY Cash used in investing activities consists primarily on the acquisitions of Elgato in 2018, and SCUF and Origin PC in 2019. Peer Comparison https://postimg.cc/Whcfd1V6 Logitech International (LOGI) and Micron Technologies (MU) Why am I posting this now? I believe they are going to have very strong 4th quarter 2020 earning results. 2020 had record pc sales,and pc video games has reported record numbers of players. They are in my opinion the leading pc peripherals brand for gamers. They also have strong support from wallstreetbets. Record pc sales: https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/record-pc-sales-in-2020-as-covid-limits-work-education-to-homes/story/427858.html#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20data,units%20in%20Q4%20of%202020&text=COVID%2D19%20pandemic%20has%20turned,personal%20computer%20(PC)%20industry%20industry). Google trends: https://imgur.com/oKPn6R5 My price target for this earnings: $55 disclaimer:I am not a financial advisor. Do not trade based on the information I have posted. credit: u/italiansomali and u/erythaean
Flatten the Curve. Part 87. NSA documents call us Zombies. GHCQ documents pretty much threaten us. This is the System running simulations that manipulate us. Do you trust them? I don't. Get ahead of the curve.
Part 85 here Alright. Alright. Alright. Let's keep digging further into the rabbit hole of a weaponized simulation being used to manipulate societal behavior by the Technocrat Surveillance State. First of all. PClick on the link. Take a look. This is what they call us. ZOMBIESSource Here
According to internal NSA documents seen by SPIEGEL, the NSA has focused on accessing smartphone data. In a secret presentation, the agency ironically uses an image from the iconic Apple Macintosh ad aired during 1984 Superbowl, which referenced the George Orwell book "1984." The presentation went on to show Steve Jobs as "Big Brother." The NSA documents indicate that the agency can access a wide variety of iPhone geolocation features and other data.The implication of the presentation is that iPhone users are somehow complicit in their own surveillance by buying iPhones in the first place.
And do you know what you can do with zombies? Click and drop them wherever you want and lead them to where you need them to be. Because zombies really aren't dangerous, despite all the entertainment showing otherwise. They're only dangerous of you don't control the environment around you. If you fall asleep at the wheel. Which is why they're running simulations with Sentient World Simulation and manipulating our behaviour. So how deep does the data gathering go? Really deep.
We're All In This Together
NSA whistleblower Drake says the problem is that both CSEC and the NSA lack proper oversight, and without it, they have morphed into runaway surveillance. "There is a clear and compelling danger to democracy in Canada by virtue of how far these secret surveillance operations have gone." Much of the document contains hyper-sensitive operational details which CBC News has chosen not to make public.Wesley Wark, a Canadian security and intelligence expert at the University of Ottawa, says the document makes it clear Canada can take advantage of its relatively benign image internationally to covertly amass a vast amount of information abroad. Source Here
So we're all part of the same team. The Five Eyes. So think about it. USA. Canada. Britain. Australia. New Zealand. Our Governments collect all our data and then pump it into a simulation like SEAS, before letting an algorithm do it's thing and shape our incoming data to mold our behaviors. Proof? Sort of. Those massive data centers in Utah aren't there as decoration. We have proof of behavioural manipulating studies done by Facebook. And we also have proof of an extremely advanced simulation. This isn't a leap to say that they use this apparatus against us. Is it?
The NSA and GCHQ have traded recipes for various purposes such as grabbing location data and journey plans that are made when a target uses Google Maps, and vacuuming up address books, buddy lists, phone logs and geographic data embedded in photos posted on the mobile versions of numerous social networks such as Facebook, Flickr, LinkedIn, Twitter and other services. In a separate 20-page report dated 2012, GCHQ cited the popular smartphone game "Angry Birds" as an example of how an application could be used to extract user data. Taken together, such forms of data collection would allow the agencies to collect vital information about a user's life, including his or her home country, current location (through geolocation), age, gender, ZIP code, marital status, income, ethnicity, sexual orientation, education level, number of children, etc. A GCHQ document dated August 2012 provided details of the Squeaky Dolphin surveillance program, which enables GCHQ to conduct broad, real-time monitoring of various social media features and social media traffic such as YouTube video views, the Like button on Facebook, and Blogspot/Blogger visits without the knowledge or consent of the companies providing those social media features. The agency's "Squeaky Dolphin" program can collect, analyze and utilize YouTube, Facebook and Blogger data in specific situations in real time for analysis purposes. The program also collects the addresses from the billions of videos watched daily as well as some user information for analysis purposes.
Whelp. They sure are like an octopus with their tentacles in everything, aren't they? And I do mean everything, isn’t that right Bill get the jab Gates? Why on earth would they need this data unless they were using it? They wouldn't. Now the problem becomes, how are they using it? Remember, they want to launch the Internet of Things so they can watch everything. Do you know who else watched everything? Jeffery Epstein.
Giuffre adds that Epstein had hidden cameras everywhere in his homes—massage rooms, bedrooms, showers, toilets. “Every single corner of that house was monitored,” she says. “He was watching everyone all the time. This was a blackmail scheme.… When he told me, ‘People owe me favors’ and ‘I will never get caught’ and ‘I can get away with things,’ he meant it.”
Ransome claims that she was raped by Epstein her first night on the island, and continued to be abused by him throughout the trip. With no way to leave, Ransome said that she even “tried to escape”—making her way to a remote part of the island. But Epstein found her “almost immediately.” Ransome said, “I knew then that I was being watched 24/7.” Source Here
That doesn't look good for living in a omnipresent surveillance state does it. And hey, didn't Jeffery hang out with Bill Gates quite a bit?
Microsoft handed the NSA access to encrypted messages • Secret files show scale of Silicon Valley co-operation on Prism • Outlook.com encryption unlocked even before official launch • • Skype worked to enable Prism collection of video calls • Company says it is legally compelled to comply • Material collected through Prism is routinely shared with the FBI and CIA, with one NSA document describing the program as a "team sport". Source Here
Yep. Birds a feather, as they say. So the material is collected through Prism? So now when they say Prism, I'm pretty sure they mean to indicate a light source on one side and a rainbow coming out the other side, right? Makes sense, doesn't it? And a rainbow is a collection of colors. Hmmmm. I feel like I have a revolutionary thought coming on. Color revolutions! You know, like the kind that swept the middle east. Isn't that funny? Not really, but you know what I mean. Because these guys love just making it obvious, don't they? Why? Because we're all a bunch of zombies, that's why! And a funny thing happens when you start to dive into some of the revolutionary protests. You start to see a link between where China increases trade with a country, and right around the same time the protests spontaneously start up! What a coincidence! The Egyptian revolution of 2011, also known as the 25 January Revolution (Arabic: ثورة 25 يناير; Thawrat khamsa wa-ʿišrūn yanāyir),[21] started on 25 January 2011 and spread across Egypt.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_revolution_of_2011 Recognizing that the current trade volume heavily favors China, both sides committed to work to improve Egypt’s share of the balance of trade. The volume of Sino-Egyptian trade reached $8.8 billion in 2011, a 26% increase from 2010. Source Here I'm only going to give one example, but there are more. These are color revolutions all right, but they're the color of money. Remember, the Sentient World Simulation can simulate over 60 countries at once, and that's what they're willing to tell us. How much do you want to bet the real capacity is beyond top secret? And what happened in Russia and China im 2011?
The 2011 Chinese pro-democracy protests (simplified Chinese: 中国茉莉花革命; traditional Chinese: 中國茉莉花革命) or (simplified Chinese: 伟大的中华茉莉花革命; traditional Chinese: 偉大的中華茉莉花革命) refers to a series of minor public assemblies at some cities in China starting on 20 February 2011, inspired by and named after the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia and the wider Arab Spring.
The 2011–2013 Russian protests (which some English language media referred to as the Snow Revolution)[14] began in 2011 (as protests against the 2011 Russian legislative election results) and continued into 2012 and 2013. The protests were motivated by claims by Russian and foreign journalists, political activists and members of the public that the election process was flawed.[15] The Central Election Commission of Russia stated that only 11.5% of official reports of fraud could be confirmed as true.
Revolutions sure became popular all over the planet (and by planet I mean Africa, the Middle East, and Asia) all at once. Yep. They caught the Democracy Virus! They want FREEDOM! They want to be able to leave their countries...uhm, don't we get a lot of Chinese tourists over in North America? Strange. But isn't it a dictatorship that...you know what, never mind. FREEDOM! Now if I'm right and they're using the internet to manipulate all of us based off of running simulations, it might just put a different spin as to why Russia and China have tried to block the internet into their countries. Just a thought. They wouldn't want their populations being manipulated, would they? Nope.
Beijing has not completely blacked out reporting on the uprising in Egypt. Instead, the Chinese government is funneling coverage of the protests through state-run television and the official Xinhua News Agency. However, the coverage that reaches Chinese citizens focuses primarily on the "lawlessness and anarchy" in Egypt's streets."What they are putting in the foreground is the chaos and the upheaval," Joerg Rudolph, a political scientist at the East Asian Institute of the University of Applied Sciences in Ludwigshafen, told Deutsche Welle. "This way they are showing that it's bad when these kinds of protests happen. We have to preserve stability. It's always the same. Stability has to be preserved and that's always the stability of the ruling elite in the country." Source Here
Oh. China has to preserve the stability of the ruling elite? Gotcha. Sure is a good thing that doesn't happen in North America! Could you imagine having controversial elections, rioting or protests, and then armed soldiers on the street! Thank goodness we have fact checks to save us from fake news! Here's another strange thing about revolutions. They're all in the eye of the beholder. One man's Revolution is another man's Terrorism. Take Xinjiang and the Uighurs. I'm not saying they don't have re-education camps. They do. China admits it. I will say that I don't know how bad the situation is. But I will also say, middle eastern drones sure do have a lot of collateral damage, don't they? And North America is suddenly starting to get very concerned about domestic terrorism, aren't they? Wait. Isn’t that what China claims to be concerned about in Xinjiang as well? Hmmm. They must be worried about corporations like Apple and Nike being targeted. Ok. Back on point. Simulations. The internet. Data. Shaping our perception. Molding our behaviors based on a computer program. They input data and then they output information for us to consume. Revolutions? Racial tensions? Apathy. The alarming mimicry online? Yeah. Simulations at work. And guess what? It's going to get worse. Because the more we become connected through the internet of things, the more data they receive, and the more data they receive, the better the simulations become, and the better the simulations become, the more they can exert their influence through programming us with content. It really is becoming very clear why they want 5G rolled out so quickly and why they have such a problem with Huawei, isn't it? But at least our Surveillance Simulation State is only here for the benefit of Western Society. Right?
Snowden provided journalists at The Intercept with GCHQ documents regarding another secret program "Karma Police", calling itself "the world's biggest" data mining operation, formed to create profiles on every visible Internet user's browsing habits. By 2009 it had stored over 1.1 trillion web browsing sessions, and by 2012 was recording 50 billion sessions per day. The goal of the program, according to the documents, was "either (a) a web browsing profile for every visible user on the internet, or (b) a user profile for every visible website on the internet." *Karma Police was apparently named after the Radiohead song "Karma Police", which includes the lyric "This is what you’ll get when you mess with us". *
So just think. First the EMPLOYEES call us ZOMBIES, and then they use a song title that has the lyrics, THIS IS WHAT YOU'LL GET WHEN YOU MESS WITH US. Charming. And then Bill Gates hands the data to the state. And Bill's old pal Epstien loved to use surveillance to find runaway victims to rape. And these are the guys who are funding scientists and research? Scary thought. And what's scarier? How about all the headlines about what the models are showing in regards to the pandemic. Because a model is simply another word for a simulation. And we have evidence for a massive simulation being run. And we have evidence for the Club of Rome simulation being the basis for our current climate crisis decision policies. And we don't need a simulation to start questioning the motives of people who are funding these operations. Whistleblowers have warned us. We've listened. Now we have to start making other people listen. Because no matter what, the simulations aren't perfect and they can't account for every possible outcome. And that's what each and everyone us are, another possible outcome. Go viral. Be an outcome. More soon. Keep your head up and eyes open. Talk soon.
A second Night Sky Season has arrived! Merge Dragon Seasons are 28-day game-wide events that let players win prizes by completing specific quests. A basic set of 30 rewards are available for free to all participants, with an additional set of premium rewards offered to players who buy a Royal Pass. The Season quests are similar to others in the game, and center on harvesting, merging items, healing dead land, and other common tasks. Once a quest is completed, its individual prize can be collected on the Season rewards screen and sent to your Camp in a loot orb. This will mark the fifth Seasons event on Merge Dragons, and the second that has been widely available to most players.
6: Still un-named in Gram Games releases, but expected to start very soon after the end of the current season. The official social media channels are only offering a teaser image of the exclusive feature breed so far, but u/ProPlaner has kindly sussed out some details and posted a video of the brand new Maple Moth
Season Basics
The basic Season rewards consist of Season chests, a few common low- to mid-level Camp items, and 7 Tanzanite Mystery eggs which yield coin breed whelps. Season chests are similar to regular Treasure and Grimm chests; when opened, they yield a random assortment of items normally found in Pearlescent, Dangerous, Occult, Golden, and Moon chests. The “Tap” notification for each level of Season chest will vanish as soon as one of that level is opened, and chests from different Seasons can be merged as long as they are of the same level. This short video created by u/Proplaner shows what to expect from tapping these chests and the Decision Eggs; the general mix of contents for both has been consistent across all Seasons so far. The basic Season prizes are relatively low value, and many people just sell the items for coins straight away. That said, active players can complete most of the quests with minimal extra effort, so these could be considered free rewards for normal playing; the challenge of completing all 30 quests may also add some excitement all on its own.
Quests
All quest tasks can be completed in Camp, Levels, regular weekend Out-Of-Camp Events, or any combination of the three. Many of the same quick, low-chalice levels popular for farming Dragon Stars work well for these quests. OOC events are held on weekends several times a month; specific info, including strategies and tips for completion, can be found in our Community Info FAQ section. The number of Basic Season quests that can be completed each day is limited; when a pause is reached, the next quest will always become available at the next normal event starting hour (around 7pm Greenwich Mean Time, or 2pm Eastern US Time). The Royal Pass used to remove this cool-down period so that each new task started as soon as the previous one ended; that has now changed, and the delays are merely reduced for at least some pass purchasers. Prizes do not need to be collected immediately, but anything left on the board at the end of the Season will be lost. Here are this Season’s quests (curtesy of the Dragonia Den Discord) with the date each unlocks for the basic free version:
Harvest anything 65x (Jan 20)
Merge anything 75x (Jan 20)
Heal land 45x (Jan 21)
Gain or create stars 4x (Jan 22)
Harvest from Life Flowers 75x (Jan 23)
Merge Eggs or Dragons 5x (Jan 24)
Merge any Life Flowers 40x (Jan 25)
Merge anything 140x (Jan 26)
Gain or Create stars 5x (Jan 27)
Merge Eggs or Dragons 8x (Jan 28)
Harvest from anything 95x (Jan 29)
Heal land 65x (Jan 30)
Merge any Life Flowers 45x (Jan 31)
Merge anything 145x (Feb 1)
Gain or Create stars 8x (Feb 2)
Heal land 70x (Feb 3)
Harvest from Life Flowers 125x (Feb 4)
Merge Eggs or Dragons 12x (Feb 5)
Merge any Life Flowers 75x (Feb 6)
Merge anything 250x (Feb 7)
Heal land 90x (Feb 8)
Gain or Create stars 9x (Feb 9)
Merge anything 200x (Feb 10)
Merge any Life Flowers 90x (Feb 11)
Merge Eggs or Dragons 11x (Feb 12)
Merge anything 255x (Feb 13)
Merge any Life Flowers 95x (Feb 14)
Heal land 110x (Feb 15)
Merge Eggs or Dragons 13x (Feb 16)
Gain or Create stars 10x (Feb 17)
These quests are similar to what has been offered in previous Seasons; only the specific order and number of task repetitions has changed.
Tips for Completing Quests
Heal Any Land: OOC Events are good for this; but once past the 35k dragon power level, unlocking dead land in Camp is a rare occasion.
Gain or Create Stars: In levels, actions that trigger after the level has been completed do not count; this includes gaining the third star in popular levels like Zomblin Falls 1 and Dread Marsh 3. Purple Dragon stars do not count unless you tap out their gems, but this is definitely not recommended for the lvl 1 Dragon stars due to the huge loss in potential gems.
New Info: Stars tapped out of level 7 Giant Treasure Chests will count towards this quest, as will stars gained by tapping applicable Daily Treasure Chests. This only counts when freshly opening a chest; stars already present in your Camp in loot orbs from previously tapped chests will not register as “new”
Harvest Anything: This is a great incentive to set your dragons to harvesting fruit and fruit trees to build your coin supply; grinding for stone and material for other chains works well, too, and OOC events provide plenty of opportunities.
Harvest from Life Flowers: Regular weekend events are great for this; however, dragons will only harvest life orbs on their own if unlocked dead land is present, so established Camps may not be ideal.
Merge Anything: Grinding in your Camp for any chain using stone-bought chests will make short work of these; in levels you can cheat and go with 3-merges if you are sure it won’t leave you short of materials to finish the level objectives. Unfortunately, merging in multiples only counts as 1, so mass-merging (such as in events) will slow your progress.
Merge Life Flowers: Grinding Moon/Phobos chests in Camp works well, and moves you that much further towards the ultimate goal of creating the Rainbow wonder. OOC Events also yield plenty of opportunities, especially towards the end when there’s plenty of materials to make sprouts, and no reason to avoid 3-merges. Note that only “flowers” count for these quests; items over level 7 are considered “trees”.
Merge Eggs or Dragons: There’s not much opportunity for this in OOC Events, but it’s a good incentive to work on building up your Camp dragon herd. Stockpiling Bountiful chests awarded by completing levels will yield lots of free eggs as long as you keep the countdown clock going; collecting the chests on the main Levels map will deliver them to your Camp in a loot bubble for easy storage. Eggs in loot orbs from Kala trades are also convenient for hoarding off to one side of your screen; likewise for Friendship eggs and shards, or Event and Season egg and nest rewards. Some Camp Quests involve tapping nests or merging eggs or dragons, so if the timing’s right you’ll fulfill multiple tasks at once.
Each Season offers players the opportunity to purchase a Royal Pass; the first three were $4.99 US, but the price jumped to $9.99 US in Season 4. This purchase unlocks an additional premium tier of prize items and performance boosts, in addition to all the basic prize items: The current Season’s Royal Pass offers:
From the Royal Guardian breed: 19 dragon eggs and a nest, plus a L1, L2, and two L3 dragons.
3 Sapphire and 3 Ruby Fire Mystery eggs
A L1 Cosmos whelp
A L1 Gargoyle whelp
6 Decision eggs
Performance boosts to dragon speeds (starts at +2%, and maxes at +8%)
Faster chalice refill times (starts at +5%, and maxes at +20%)
Temporary +20% increase of coin and stone brick storage capacity
The option to pay gems to complete individual unlocked quests
No cool-down period between quests
A new version of the Pass that still included cool-downs was initially released to some purchasers, before being rolled back on Feb 4. More info is below in the “Is the Pass worth buying” section.
All prize eggs, dragons, and items are permanent once brought to your Camp, but the performance boosts and extra storage only last for the duration of that particular Season. Passes do not carry over; no matter if they are bought on day 1 or day 27, they’ll all expire on day 28, and any unearned or uncollected rewards will vanish.
Decision Eggs
When first tapped, Decision Eggs offer a choice between three breeds, and then the egg permanently changes into whichever breed you select. If you do not like the choices offered, closing and reopening the game will reset the options. Decision eggs do not expire, and can be bubbled using the MarcusV method, or just left in their original loot orb.
NOTE: Having an un-bubbled egg for a given breed sitting out in your Camp seems to improve the odds of being offered that breed as one of the choices, even for Tier 2 Trophy breeds.
Most players prefer to select eggs that are difficult to gain by other means; here is a general guide to availability:
Rarest of the Rare: These eggs are either Royal Pass exclusives or Tier 2 eggs from non-purchasable breeds
NOTE: Tier 2 eggs from other, slightly-less-rare Trophy breeds have also been reported; having an un-bubbled egg of the targeted breed out may be needed for this to happen.
Very Rare: These are either secondary event trophy breeds, or have featured less commonly in recent events; all can be purchased in the store for gems once unlocked. Secondary event trophy breed eggs are often spawned in sets of four by a special event prize item when it is first brought to Camp, so many players have odd numbers of these eggs sitting around.
Rare: These are a mix of primary Out-Of-Camp Event Trophy breeds, and the most expensive Camp breeds. Primary Trophy dragons are regularly featured as the main prizes in standard weekend OOC events; usually three eggs, a nest, and a level 4 dragon are offered each event, with an additional nest and level 3 dragon often offered in the following event.
A note about Super Eggs: These attract a lot of attention because they give on a good show and give multiple dragons at once. But they are free with patience (a shard is given by every 7th Daily Treasure Chest), and yield mostly coin breed L1 whelps, so many players feel they are overrated and not worth paying gems or cash.
Is the Night Sky Royal Pass worth buying?
Tl;dr: Not unless you really love the Royal Guardian dragon breed. The rest of the reward items are available elsewhere for less money (or free), the total number of dragons you get is low compared to other purchase options, the dragon performance boosts are hardly noticeable, and you may still face days-long waits before starting new quests.
The first three Seasons had a Royal Pass priced at $4.99 US that gave a total of 19x featured breed eggs and a nest, plus 1x level 1, 1x level 2, and 2x level 3 dragons. Combined, this merges up to 4x level 3 dragons, or the equivalent of 63-67 eggs (depending on how many are in the nest). Those Passes also yielded an 7x additional mixed Mystery eggs, 2x older premium/trophy breed whelps, and 6x Decision eggs, along with a few small amounts of coin and stone. Seasons 1 and 3 starred brand new trophy breeds (Royal Guardian and Wild Gryphon), while Season 2 featured the existing Autumn dragon. The Royal Pass in Season 4 gave a similar number of eggs and dragons, and featured the Prism breed, which is available in Camp via the Magnificent Artefacts chain. This Pass greatly reduced the dragon performance boosts, from 20% down to 8%, and shrunk the storage capacity boost from 100% down to 20%. This Season’s most controversial change was to the price of the Royal Pass, which doubled for most players from $4.99 to $9.99 US. The current Night Sky 2 Season Royal Pass:
Has the same doubled price and greatly reduced boosts, and lower value non-featured breed whelps.
Features the Royal Guardian trophy breed. This is the first time many players will see this dragon; it was introduced in Season 1 last September, but only to a limited group of beta testers.
Devs are testing a new “feature” regarding cool-down times between quests — players that still see the phrase “unlocks all quests” at the bottom of the Royal Pass’ benefit description are allowed to start the next quest as soon as the prior one is completed, just as in previous Seasons. However, games that instead show the words “unlock all quests quicker” will encounter cool-down periods of up to 6 days
This is an a/b test, with accounts assigned to a version at random; if you purchased a non-instant unlock Pass without spotting the one-word change in the description, you may be able to get a refund by contacting Game Support or via your app store (more info at bottom).
The new version of the Pass appears to limit overall progress to the normal pace experienced by free players. The difference is that Pass players get small blocks of quests unlocked all at once, but then can’t progress further until the one-release-per-day basic players have caught up.
Basic season players have always seen their final quest unlocked 24 hours before the end of the Season; hopefully these Pass players will see the last block of quests released well before that to provide some flexibility for things that might prevent playing on the final day.
On Feb 4, Gram Games began removing cool-downs from all versions of the Royal Pass; it is not yet known how this will affect refund requests.
The non-dragon Royal Pass benefits are of limited value in the game:
Extra coin and stone storage capacity is handy, but does not add much actual value outside of a few specific tasks, such as farming coins in a level or after completing OOC events.
Paying gems to skip quests is questionable given how easy most tasks are completed and the 28 day time frame.
The removal or reduction of the cool-down periods between quests may speed things up, but most non-paying players will have plenty of time to complete the tasks even with the frequent wait periods.
Players still working their way through the levels, or those seriously grinding for Dragon Stars, may benefit from increased chalice refill speeds, but only if they are playing enough to keep the countdown timer running.
The greatest benefit from purchasing a Royal Pass is in the trophy dragons it yields; the objective rarity and obtainability of each breed will vary, and for many players the ultimate desirability may be heavily influenced by personal preference. If you feel a strong connection to the Royal Guardian, it may be worth the price to gain four level 3 dragons from this Season; the breed will certainly be offered again, but probably not for at least several months and will most likely still require a cash purchase.
I still don’t have the Season in my game
The Seasons events have been gradually rolled out to the Merge Dragons community, with each version reaching more players than the last. Most players should have access now, but according to the Support website, there are still some accounts left out. If you do not see the newest Season in your game, try these possibly solutions:
Check that your game is up to date — automatic updates can be unreliable for this app.
Check you have at least 200 dragon power — new players will need to build up their stats before a Season appears.
Check your internet connection — if it is too slow or unstable, events and other activities requiring access to Gram Games servers will not activate.
Clear your game’s cache — A good option any time the game acts weird; sadly this is not available on iPhones
Restart your device — this can sometimes trigger things to show properly in the game when nothing else works.
If none of that helps, you may unfortunately still be excluded from participating by the developer; this is due to ongoing a/b testing, where the devs look at how various versions of the game affect player behavior like spending patterns. You can try contacting Gram Games Support through the in-game link or the official website to ask about it, or at least rule out if there is any kind of fixable problem involved. As a last resort, you can try backing up your game to the cloud (via Facebook or Apple’s Game Center), completely deleting the app from your device, re-downloading it from the app store, and then restoring your game progress from the earlier cloud save. If all goes well, this may get you a version of the game that includes the Seasons, but it is considered a risky option; cloud save is never 100% reliable, and any glitch or misstep in the process could cost you some or all of your progress.
Contacting the Developers
If you would like to give Gram Games some feedback on this event, you can message them through the in-game Support link (on your Settings page), or through the game’s Support website. Please remember the people who answer the support tickets are not the ones responsible for the changes; they can only help with a limited number of technical issues, and their responses to complaints about changes in the game must align with the official message given to them by their bosses. All complaints are passed on to the developers; if you want to increase the odds of your message attracting close attention, be polite and constructive in your criticism — if you have suggestions for improvements or better ways they could monetize the game, let them know. It may be possible to get a refund if you paid for the current Royal Pass without spotting the slight change in the description about unlocking quests — especially since the previous version of that pass was still advertised on the game’s official Seasons FAQ page well after players started receiving the new one. If Gram Games is unwilling to help, it may be possible to apply for a refund directly through your device’s app store. Here’s a Support response from Monday morning, granting a refund to one unhappy player. Some early requests were reportedly denied, but as the verdicts seem to be applied inconsistently, a second attempt might be warranted if a first request was refused.
With thanks to the Dragonia Den Guild and all those who contribute to the awesome Fandom Wiki Edits are ongoing as new info comes in
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