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[Lost in the Sauce] Trump admin hides Paycheck Protection program details; lawmakers benefit from loans

Welcome to Lost in the Sauce, keeping you caught up on political and legal news that often gets buried in distractions and theater… or a global health crisis.
Title refers to: The Trump admin is blocking IGs from getting info on over $1 trillion in relief spending, including corporation bailouts. The admin is also withholding PPP info from Congress, meaning we don't know if Trump or his family took taxpayer money. Additionally, we learned that at least 4 members of Congress have benefited from PPP money, but aren't required to disclose it.
Housekeeping:

Coronavirus

Inspectors general warned Congress last week that the Trump administration is blocking scrutiny of more than $1 trillion in spending related to the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the previously undisclosed letter, Department of Treasury attorneys concluded that the administration is not required to provide the watchdogs with information about the beneficiaries of programs like the $500 billion in loans for corporations.
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin refused to provide Congress with the names of recipients of the taxpayer-funded coronavirus business loans. After criticism, Mnuchin began to walk back his denial, saying he will talk to lawmakers on a bipartisan basis “to strike the appropriate balance for proper oversight” of PPP loans “and appropriate protection of small business information.”
At least 4 lawmakers have benefited in some way from the Paycheck Protection program they helped create. Politico has been told there are almost certainly more -- but there are zero disclosure rules, even for members of Congress.
  • Republicans on the list include Rep. Roger Williams of Texas, a wealthy businessman who owns auto dealerships, body shops and car washes, and Rep. Vicky Hartzler of Missouri, whose family owns multiple farms and equipment suppliers across the Midwest. The Democrats count Rep. Susie Lee of Nevada, whose husband is CEO of a regional casino developer, and Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell of Florida, whose husband is a senior executive at a restaurant chain that has since returned the loan.
Mick Mulvaney dumped as much as $550,000 in stocks the same day Trump assured the public the US economy was 'doing fantastically' amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Mulvaney unloaded his holdings in three different mutual funds, each of which is primarily made up of US stocks. The next day, the value of the mutual funds tanked.

Cases rising in many states

Good summary: There was supposed to be a peak. But the stark turning point, when the number of daily COVID-19 cases in the U.S. finally crested and began descending sharply, never happened. Instead, America spent much of April on a disquieting plateau, with every day bringing about 30,000 new cases and about 2,000 new deaths. This pattern exists because different states have experienced the coronavirus pandemic in very different ways…The U.S. is dealing with a patchwork pandemic.
As of Friday, coronavirus cases were significantly climbing in 16 states: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Washington.
Oklahoma is experiencing a massive increase in coronavirus cases just days before Trump’s planned rally in Tulsa. In Tulsa county itself, 1 in roughly 390 people have tested positive. Yet Trump plans on cramming 20,000 people in an event with voluntary face mask policy and no social distancing. Attendees must sign a waiver that absolves the president’s campaign of any liability from virus-related illnesses.
  • On Monday, Pence lied saying that Oklahoma has “flattened the curve.” As you can see at any of the resources immediately below, this is not even close to true. Over the past 14 days, the state has seen a 124% increase in cases and reports 65% of ICU beds are in use.
  • Tulsa World Editorial Board: This is the wrong time and Tulsa is the wrong place for the Trump rally. "We don't know why he chose Tulsa, but we can’t see any way that his visit will be good for the city...Again, Tulsa will be largely alone in dealing with what happens at a time when the city’s budget resources have already been stretched thin."
  • Earlier in the day, Trump tweeted that he is a victim of double standards when it comes to perception of his decision to resume campaign rallies in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, declaring that attempts to “covid shame” his campaign “won’t work!”
Resources to track increases: There are many different sites with various methods of visualizing the spread of coronavirus. Here are some that may be particularly useful this summer… Topos COVID-19 compiler homepage and graphs of each state since re-opening. How we reopen Safely has stats on each state’s progress towards meeting benchmarks to reopen safely (hint: almost none have reached all the checkpoints). WaPo has a weekly national map of cases/deaths; the largest regional clusters are in the southeast.
On Monday, Trump twice said that “if we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” (video). Aside from the fact that cases exist even if we don’t test for them, we cannot explain the rising number of cases by increased testing capacity: In at least 14 states, the positive case rate is increasing faster than the increase in the average number of tests.
  • Reminder: In March Trump told Fox News that he didn't want infected patients from a cruise ship to disembark because it would increase the number of reported cases in the US. "I like the numbers being where they are," Trump said at the time. "I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault."
Fired scientist Rebekah Jones builds coronavirus dashboard to rival Florida’s… Her site shows thousands more people with the coronavirus, and hundreds of thousands fewer who have been tested, than the site run by the Florida Health Department.

Equipment and supplies

More studies prove wearing masks limits transmission and spread of coronavirus… One study from Britain found that routine face mask use by 50% or more of the population reduced COVID-19 spread to an R of less than 1.0. The R value measures the average number of people that one infected person will pass the disease on to. An R value above 1 can lead to exponential growth. The study found that if people wear masks whenever they are in public it is twice as effective at reducing the R value than if masks are only worn after symptoms appear.
Meanwhile, Trump officials refuse to wear masks and Trump supporters copy his behavior… VP Mike Pence, leader of the coronavirus task force, published a tweet showing himself in a room full of Trump staffers, none wearing masks or practicing social distancing. Pence deleted the tweet shortly after criticism. A poll last week showed that 66% of likely-Biden-voters “always wear a mask,” while 83% of likely-Trump-voters “neverarely wear a mask.”
  • Trump’s opposition to face masks hasn’t stopped him from selling them to his supporters, though. The online Trump Store is selling $20 cotton American flag-themed face masks.
  • Yesterday, we learned that South Carolina Republican Rep. Tom Rice and family have tested positive for the coronavirus. Just two weeks ago, Rice was on the House floor and halls of the Capitol without wearing a mask.
Internal FEMA data show that the government’s supply of surgical gowns has not meaningfully increased since March… The slides show FEMA’s plan to ramp up supply into June and July hinges on the reusing of N95 masks and surgical gowns, increasing the risk of contamination. Those are supposed to be disposed of after one use.
Nursing homes with urgent needs for personal protective equipment say they’re receiving defective equipment as part of Trump administration supply initiative. Officials say FEMA is sending them gowns that look more like large tarps -- with no holes for hands -- and surgical masks that are paper-thin.
More than 1,300 Chinese medical-device companies that registered to sell PPE in the U.S. during the coronavirus pandemic used bogus registration data… These companies listed as their American representative a purported Delaware entity that uses a false address and nonworking phone number.
Florida is sitting on more than 980,000 unused doses of hydroxychloroquine, but hospitals don’t want it… Gov. Ron DeSantis ordered a million doses of the drug to show support for Trump, but very few hospitals have requested it.

Native American communities struggle

The CARES Act money for Native American tribes, meant to assist people during the pandemic, came with restrictions that are impeding efforts to limit the transmission of the virus. For instance, the funds can only be used to cover expenses that are "incurred due to the public health emergency." On the Navajo Nation, the public health emergency is inherently related to some basic infrastructure problems. 30% of Navajo don’t have running water to wash their hands, but the money can’t be used to build water lines.
Federal and state health agencies are refusing to give Native American tribes and organizations representing them access to data showing how the coronavirus is spreading around their lands, potentially widening health disparities and frustrating tribal leaders already ill-equipped to contain the pandemic. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has turned down tribal epidemiologists’ requests for data that it’s making freely available to states.
A Hospital’s Secret Coronavirus Policy Separated Native American Mothers From Their Newborns… Pregnant Native American women were singled out for COVID-19 testing based on their race and ZIP code, clinicians say. While awaiting results, some mothers were separated from their newborns, depriving them of the immediate contact doctors recommend. New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham announced that state officials would investigate the allegations.

Personnel & appointees

Former IG Steve Linick told Congress he was conducting five investigations into Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the State Department before he was fired. In addition to investigating Pompeo's potential misuse of taxpayer funds and reviewing his decision to expedite an $8 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia, Linick’s office was conducting an audit of Special Immigrant Visas, a review of the International Women of Courage Award, and another review "involving individuals in the Office of the Protocol."
  • Pompeo confidant emerges as enforcer in fight over watchdog’s firing: Linick testified that Undersecretary of State for Management Brian Bulatao, a decades-old friend of Pompeo’s, “tried to bully [him]” out of investigating Pompeo.
Trump has empowered John McEntee, director of the Presidential Personnel Office, to make significant staffing changes inside top federal agencies without the consent — and, in at least one case, without even the knowledge — of the agency head. Many senior officials in Trump's government are sounding alarms about the loss of expertise and institutional knowledge.
Trump’s nominee for under secretary of defense for policy, retired Army Brig. Gen. Anthony Tata, has a history of making Islamophobic and inflammatory remarks against prominent Democratic politicians, including falsely calling former President Barack Obama a Muslim.
Amid racial justice marches, GOP advances Trump court pick hostile to civil rights. Cory Wilson, up for a lifetime seat on the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, has denied that restrictive voting laws lead to voter suppression and called same-sex marriage “a pander to liberal interest groups.”
Interior Secretary David Bernhardt has indefinitely extended the terms of the acting directors of the Bureau of Land Management and the National Park Service, sidestepping the typical Senate confirmation process for those posts and violating the Federal Vacancies Reform Act,

Courts and DOJ

The Supreme Court declined on Monday to take a closer look at qualified immunity, the legal doctrine that shields law enforcement and government officials from lawsuits over their conduct. Developed in recent decades by the high court, the qualified immunity doctrine, as applied to police, initially asks two questions: Did police use excessive force, and if they did, should they have known that their conduct was illegal because it violated a "clearly established" prior court ruling that barred such conduct? In practice, however, lower courts have most often dismissed police misconduct lawsuits on grounds that there is no prior court decision with nearly identical facts.
The Supreme Court ruled that federal anti-discrimination laws protect gay and transgender employees. Justice Neil M. Gorsuch and Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. joined the court’s liberals in the 6 to 3 ruling. They said Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which prohibits discrimination “because of sex,” includes LGBTQ employees.
  • Alito, writing more than 100 pages in dissent for himself and Thomas, accused the court's majority of writing legislation, not law. Kavanaugh wrote separately: "We are judges, not members of Congress...Under the Constitution and laws of the United States, this court is the wrong body to change American law in that way."
  • Just days before the SCOTUS opinion was released, the Trump administration finalized a rule that would remove nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ people when it comes to health care and health insurance. The SCOTUS ruling may make it easier to challenge the changes made by Trump.
The Supreme Court also declined to take up California’s “sanctuary” law, denying the Trump administration’s appeal. This means that the lower court opinion upholding one of California's sanctuary laws is valid, limiting cooperation between law enforcement and federal immigration authorities. Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, two of the Court's conservative members, supported taking up the case.
A federal appeals court appeared unlikely Friday to stop a judge from examining why the Justice Department sought to walk away from its prosecution of Michael Flynn. "I don't see why we don't observe regular order," said Judge Karen Henderson. "Why not hold this in abeyance and see what happens?" Judge Robert Wilkins told Flynn's lawyer that if Sullivan doesn't let the government drop the case, "then you can come back here on appeal."

Other

Good read: Fiona Hill on being mistaken as a secretary by Trump, her efforts to make sure he was not left alone with Putin, and what the US, UK and Russia have in common. “It’s spitting in Merkel’s face,” said Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian diplomat who’s now a foreign-policy analyst. “But it’s in our interests.”
  • Russia’s Foreign Ministry welcomed Trump’s plan to withdraw more than a quarter of U.S. troops from Germany.
  • Op-Ed: Why cutting American forces in Germany will harm this alliance
According to a new book, the Secret Service had to seek more funding to cover the cost of protecting Melania Trump while she stayed in NYC to renegotiate her prenup - taxpayers paid tens of millions of dollars to allow her to get better terms. Additionally, NYPD estimated its own costs conservatively at $125,000 a day.
Georgia election 'catastrophe' in largely minority areas sparks investigation. Long lines, lack of voting machines, and shortages of primary ballots plagued voters. As of Monday night, there were still over 200,000 uncounted votes.
Fox News runs digitally altered images in coverage of Seattle’s protests, Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone
Fox News Mocked After Mistaking Monty Python Joke for Seattle Protest Infighting
In addition to holding a rally on the day after Juneteenth (originally scheduled the day of), Trump will be accepting the GOP nomination in Jacksonville on the 60th anniversary of “Ax Handle Saturday,” a KKK attack on African Americans.
Environmental news:
  • Ruling against environmentalists, the U.S. Supreme Court decided that the federal government has the authority to allow a proposed $7.5 billion natural gas pipeline to cross under the popular Appalachian Trail in rural Virginia.
  • Trump administration has issued a new rule blocking tribes from protecting their waters from projects like pipelines, dams, and coal terminals.
  • The EPA published a proposal in the Federal Register that critics described as an assault on minority communities coping with the public health legacy of structural racism. The rule would bar EPA from giving special consideration to individual communities that bear the brunt of environmental risks — frequently populations of color.
  • The Trump administration is preparing to drill off Florida’s coast, but says it will wait until after the November election to avoid any backlash from Florida state leaders.
Immigration news
  • U.S. Customs and Border Protection used emergency funding meant for migrant families and children to pay for dirt bikes, canine supplies, computer equipment and other enforcement related-expenditures… The money was meant to be spent on “consumables and medical care” for migrants at the border.
  • ACLU files lawsuit against stringent border restrictions related to coronavirus that largely bar migrants from entering the United States.
  • Under Trump’s leadership, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services has mismanaged its finances so badly that it has sought an emergency $1.2 billion infusion from taxpayers. When Trump took office, USCIS inherited a budget surplus. A large amount of funding is drained by its deliberate creation of more busy work for immigrants and their lawyers — as well as thousands of USCIS employees. These changes are designed to make it harder for people to apply for, receive or retain lawful immigration status.
  • Asylum-seeking migrants locked up inside an Arizona ICE detention center with one of the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases say they were forced to clean the facility and are 'begging' for protection from the virus
  • ICE plans to spend $18 million on thousands of new tasers and the training to use them
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** Fri 11/20 - Christmas TV listings - ALL CHANNELS **

all time are Eastern USA - check your local listings
It's a Very Merry Muppet Christmas Movie Tomorrow, 12:00 AM / FAM-E 52 Kermit the Frog and the Muppets have to scramble to raise money to save the Muppet Theater when the bank owner who holds their mortgage wants to transform the building into a casino, and they receive assistance from an angel.
Christmas Cookie Challenge - Mr. and Mrs. Claus Tomorrow, 12:00 AM / FOODTV 56 Five cookie makers try to imagine what Christmas Eve looks like for Mrs. Claus for the decorating challenge, then for the display challenge, they have to craft fireplace mantels out of cookies, using Brazil nuts, hazelnuts or macadamia nuts.
Christmas at Pemberley Manor Tomorrow, 12:00 AM / HALMRK 68 When an event planner is sent to organize a small town's holiday festival, she meets a grumpy billionaire with the perfect estate to host her event, but when the two start planning the festivities, they suddenly find themselves falling in love.
Once Upon a Christmas Miracle Tomorrow, 12:00 AM / HALLMV 84 After a young woman is told that she has less than a few months to live without a liver transplant, she meets a Marine, who is a perfect match and whose organ donation could save her life, and they soon develop a friendship which leads to romance.
A Christmas Kiss Tomorrow, 12:00 AM / UP 145 Priscilla Hall's socialite boyfriend, Adam Hughes, causes quite the battle between Priscilla and her assistant, Wendy, as the battle for his attention while decorating his home for the holidays.
The Mr. Peabody & Sherman Show - This is Your Life?; Robert Edwin Peary Tomorrow, 12:00 AM / SPROUTHD 1109 / HDTV Mr. Peabody and Sherman decide to help Hobson do all of the items on his life bucket list on live television; American explorer Robert Edwin Peary sets off on his trek to the North Pole but stops off at Santa Claus's workshop along the way.
A Christmas Wish Tomorrow, 12:01 AM / LIF-E 38 After some encouragement from her sister, a young woman decides to write down her hearts greatest desire and place it in a wooden wishing box at the park, but she questions which man she is meant to love when her wish is granted.
My Christmas Love Tomorrow, 2:00 AM / HALMRK 68 A woman's return to her small hometown takes a turn for the mysteriously romantic as she begins receiving gifts from an anonymous holiday admirer using the "12 Days of Christmas" as inspiration, giving her hope in finding true love.
The Perfect Christmas Present Tomorrow, 2:00 AM / HALLMV 84 When a businessman's friend asks him to find the perfect Christmas gift for his girlfriend, he ends up gradually falling in love with her, while doing research on her, and feels guilty as his emotions are torn between his love and his friend.
Will & Grace - A Little Christmas Queer Tomorrow, 2:00 AM / LOGO 147 The gang decides to head to Will's mother's house to join his family for a Christmas celebration, where Grace begins to warm up to Will's brother and an old flame; Jack stays busy helping to organize a special Christmas show.
The Magical Christmas Shoes Tomorrow, 2:06 AM / LIF-E 38 A young woman rediscovers the wonders of Christmas and finds herself falling in love after she steps into a pair of magical shoes.
Christmas Cookie Challenge - Center of the Season Tomorrow, 3:00 AM / FOODTV 56 Eddie Jackson presents a decorating challenge to the cookie makers where the design must be baked into the cookie itself as the judges decide which baker succeeded, then the competitors must make centerpieces made of cookies, using herbs and spices.
The Town Christmas Forgot Tomorrow, 4:00 AM / HALLMV 84 Just days before Christmas, a family's car breaks down in a town where the economy is struggling and they have little money, so the town organizes a Christmas Eve Pageant, and enlist the family's help to arrange the event.
Christmas at the Chateau Tomorrow, 5:15 AM / SHOFAM 248 A group of sisters attempt to save a historic mansion and beloved family home in their town from a corrupt bank that plans to foreclose on Christmas, but things get complicated when a sister falls in love with one of the bankers.
My Christmas Dream Tomorrow, 6:00 AM / HALMRK 68 A department store manager who wants to get to run the store's new Paris location promises the owner the store's best holiday display ever and then runs out of ideas, going to a recently-fired employee with artistic talents for inspiration.
Come Dance with Me Tomorrow, 6:00 AM / HALLMV 84 An investment expert enrolls in a waltz class to impress his fiance for Christmas, however he soon falls for his new teacher, and quickly becomes ensnared in a series of untruths when he discovers his business may ruin her dance studio.
Family Matters - Fa La La La Laaugghh! Tomorrow, 6:00 AM / TVONE 146 Despite Carl's disapproval, Steve continues to put up Christmas decoration on the house, but when Carl learns of an upcoming contest, his attitude changes; Laura and Eddie's absence from the family's Christmas activities saddens Harriette.
Annie Tomorrow, 6:03 AM / ENCORFM 378 A spunky girl who lives in an orphanage is chosen to spend the Christmas holidays with a billionaire who grows to love the child, and wants to adopt her, but her true happiness may be jeopardized by the scheming headmistress of her orphanage.
A Golden Christmas Tomorrow, 8:00 AM / LIF-E 38 A recently widowed woman decides to return to her childhood home in hopes of making a new beginning for her and her son, but her plans are impeded when she realizes that the house she grew up in has already been purchased by someone else.
A Christmas Detour Tomorrow, 8:00 AM / HALMRK 68 Two passengers with clashing personalities cross paths again in their airport hotel after their flight is forced to change course and must find a way to work together so that she can reach her destination in time for her wedding.
Christmas Song Tomorrow, 8:00 AM / HALLMV 84 The holiday season increases the already-high tension when two choral groups who were formerly rivals but have now been merged into one school must compete in a televised Christmas song competition with their directors' jobs at stake.
Transformers Rescue Bots - Christmas in July Tomorrow, 8:00 AM / D-KIDS 102 When a scorching summer hits Griffin Rock, a weather machine is built to counteract the heat, but when the contraption goes awry, it causes a colossal storm, so Cody, his family and the Rescue Bots must battle the blizzard.
Christmas at the Chateau Tomorrow, 8:15 AM / SHOFMW 256 A group of sisters attempt to save a historic mansion and beloved family home in their town from a corrupt bank that plans to foreclose on Christmas, but things get complicated when a sister falls in love with one of the bankers.
Annie Tomorrow, 9:03 AM / WAM-W 389 A spunky girl who lives in an orphanage is chosen to spend the Christmas holidays with a billionaire who grows to love the child, and wants to adopt her, but her true happiness may be jeopardized by the scheming headmistress of her orphanage.
Finding Christmas Tomorrow, 10:00 AM / HALLMV 84 After men from New York and North Carolina decide to switch residences during the holiday season, each one encounters a woman from the other's life, and as romance ensues, the time for each person to return home approaches.
Puppy Dog Pals - The Bird Beard; The Royal Egg Hunt Tomorrow, 10:00 AM / DIS-E 40 Santa and Mrs. Claus' summer vacation is threatened by a peculiar problem that the Keia and the pugs are ready to help them overcome; the pugs set off on a mission to retrieve a valuable jeweled egg that belongs to the queen of England.
Prancer Returns Tomorrow, 10:30 AM / FAM-E 52 When an eight-year-old boy finds a baby reindeer, he believes that it is one of Santa Clau's reindeer, named Prancer, and he wants to return him to the North Pole in time for Christmas Eve, thus teaching his family the true meaning of Christmas.
PAW Patrol - Pups Save a Bah Humdinger! Tomorrow, 12:00 PM / NIC-E 36 / New Mayor Humdinger is being very naughty on Christmas Eve and it's up to the Paw Patrol to help Santa and save Christmas.
Christmas Crush Tomorrow, 12:00 PM / LIF-E 38 As the holidays approach, a woman is excited to attend her upcoming high school reunion and hopes to run into her former sweetheart, and while reminiscing her school days, she considers another person she knew that could be "the one that got away."
A Christmas Miracle Tomorrow, 12:00 PM / HALLMV 84 When her boss steals her idea for their magazine's cover story, a magazine assistant goes in search of a Christmas miracle to write about with the help of her son and the staff photographer.
The Incredible Dr. Pol - Santa Paws Tomorrow, 12:00 PM / NGEOWILD 148 During the Christmas season, Dr. Pol has to handle castrations under less-than-ideal conditions, while Dr. Brenda tries to heal a reindeer in time for mating season; Dr. and Mrs. Pol serve as Grand Marshalls and Charles plays Santa for the holidays.
Annie Tomorrow, 12:23 PM / ENCORFM 378 A spunky girl who lives in an orphanage is chosen to spend the Christmas holidays with a billionaire who grows to love the child, and wants to adopt her, but her true happiness may be jeopardized by the scheming headmistress of her orphanage.
Last Christmas Tomorrow, 12:35 PM / HBO 201 A young woman who appears to have an endless amount of bad luck decides to accept a job working as an elf in a year-round Christmas store, but after a man enters her life and her life starts to change, she wonders if it's all too good to be true.
The King of Queens - Net Prophets Tomorrow, 1:00 PM / CMTV 45 Doug receives a sizeable bonus for Christmas, and Carrie refuses to entertain any option besides investment; Arthur gets into a heated competition with the neighbors over which of them can build the biggest yard ornament for the holidays.
My Best Friend's Christmas Tomorrow, 1:30 PM / SHOWOM 244 When a woman returns home for the holidays hoping to reconnect with her high school sweetheart, she meets his new girlfriend, so to escape the embarrassment, she and her best friend fake their own holiday romance, but her fake feelings turn real.
Christmas 9 to 5 Tomorrow, 2:00 PM / LIF-E 38 A crime beat reporter embarks on an undercover mission at a department store, where she pretends to be a sales clerk as she investigates the true meaning of Christmas and finds the love of her life during an unforgettable holiday season.
Welcome to Christmas Tomorrow, 2:00 PM / HALMRK 68 When a resort developer is tasked with finding a location for a new property, she finds herself in a small town, whose mayor sets on a mission to convince her to pick the charming area as the setting for her new ski resort.
Time for You to Come Home for Christmas Tomorrow, 2:00 PM / HALLMV 84 After her husband has passed away, a young woman returns to her hometown, where she meets a veteran who is on his own holiday journey, and as Christmas comes near, they learn of a bond that may be the Christmas miracle that they need.
Malcolm in the Middle - Christmas Trees Tomorrow, 2:00 PM / FUSE 109 Hal and the boys come up with a scheme where they can sell Christmas trees for some extra holiday-spending cash, but encounter a problem when members of the local clergy take offense to what they are doing and pressure them to stop.
The Top Ten Revealed - Rockin' Christmas Songs Tomorrow, 2:00 PM / HDNET 1303 Guests Dee Snider, Don Felder, Alan Parsons and Sebastian Bach reveal some of the best songs about Christmas to get one in the spirit of rocking.
The Family Stone Tomorrow, 2:10 PM / HBO2 202 A successful businessman brings his straight-laced and uptight fiancée home to meet his free-thinking, high-spirited and rebellious family for Christmas, but he runs into problems after he tries to give her the heirloom wedding ring.
Last Christmas Tomorrow, 2:25 PM / HBOL-W 214 Una joven que parece que la mala suerte la sigue a todos lados, decide aceptar un trabajo en una tienda en la época navideña, pero se tiene que disfrazar de elfo, así que cuando conoce a un apuesto joven, su vida cambia para siempre.
Annie Tomorrow, 3:23 PM / WAM-W 389 A spunky girl who lives in an orphanage is chosen to spend the Christmas holidays with a billionaire who grows to love the child, and wants to adopt her, but her true happiness may be jeopardized by the scheming headmistress of her orphanage.
In Living Color - Veracosa: Mistress of Destruction Tomorrow, 3:30 PM / ASPIRE 180 Comedy sketches include: "Vera DeMilo: Veracosa, Mistress of Destruction," "Cephus and Reesie: Christmas Album," and "Homey the Clown: Homey Clause."
Last Christmas Tomorrow, 3:35 PM / HBOWAL 208 A young woman who appears to have an endless amount of bad luck decides to accept a job working as an elf in a year-round Christmas store, but after a man enters her life and her life starts to change, she wonders if it's all too good to be true.
A Christmas in Tennessee Tomorrow, 4:00 PM / LIF-E 38 When a real estate developer comes to White Pines, Tennessee, three bakers and the townspeople must find a way to prevent the man from building a ski resort on top of their town, but an unexpected visitor with a sweet-tooth may have a solution.
Scrooged Tomorrow, 4:00 PM / AMCALL 64 The executive of a major TV network nearly ruins a holiday after he fires a low-level aide, exploits his good-hearted secretary and trashes a holiday show on Christmas Eve, but visitations from various ghosts manage to show him the error of his ways.
On the 12th Date of Christmas Tomorrow, 4:00 PM / HALMRK 68 Two game designers who hardly seem compatible with each other work together to organize a large scavenger hunt with a romantic "12 Days of Christmas" theme.
Meet Me at Christmas Tomorrow, 4:00 PM / HALLMV 84 When her sons wedding planner unexpectedly quits, his mother must coordinate his Christmas Eve wedding with the help of the brides uncle, but as they work alongside each other, they discover that their fates and pasts are intertwined.
My Best Friend's Christmas Tomorrow, 4:30 PM / SHOWMW 252 When a woman returns home for the holidays hoping to reconnect with her high school sweetheart, she meets his new girlfriend, so to escape the embarrassment, she and her best friend fake their own holiday romance, but her fake feelings turn real.
The Family Stone Tomorrow, 5:10 PM / HBO2W 209 A successful businessman brings his straight-laced and uptight fiancée home to meet his free-thinking, high-spirited and rebellious family for Christmas, but he runs into problems after he tries to give her the heirloom wedding ring.
It Happened on Fifth Avenue Tomorrow, 5:25 PM / WTVT-DT2 613 / MOVIES! When a family leaves their luxurious New York City mansion unattended for a vacation during the Christmas holiday season, a small group of homeless people decide to utilize the opportunity to make the residence their home for a few days.
Christmas a La Mode Tomorrow, 6:00 PM / LIF-E 38 A dairy farmer is determined to keep her family's legacy alive in the midst of hard times by hosting an ice cream flavor contest during Christmas, but her sister intends to sell off her shares if she cannot raise enough money in time.
Christmas Town Tomorrow, 6:00 PM / HALMRK 68 A woman decides to leave her old life behind in Boston and to set sail on a new chapter in her career and personal life, but a detour to a different town leads her to make new and unexpected discoveries about the heart and family.
Looks Like Christmas Tomorrow, 6:00 PM / HALLMV 84 Two single parents battle for control of the Christmas holiday at the middle school their children attend and learn a lesson about the true meaning of Christmas, and they also wind up opening themselves to the possibility of a new romance.
Family Matters - Fa La La La Laaugghh! Tomorrow, 6:00 PM / TVONE 146 Despite Carl's disapproval, Steve continues to put up Christmas decoration on the house, but when Carl learns of an upcoming contest, his attitude changes; Laura and Eddie's absence from the family's Christmas activities saddens Harriette.
Annie Tomorrow, 6:27 PM / ENCORFM 378 A spunky girl who lives in an orphanage is chosen to spend the Christmas holidays with a billionaire who grows to love the child, and wants to adopt her, but her true happiness may be jeopardized by the scheming headmistress of her orphanage.
Jingle All the Way Tomorrow, 8:00 PM / TNT 33 A mattress salesman with the habit of putting his work ahead of his family scrambles around the city fighting crowds and other overzealous parents in a desperate search for the prized toy of the year, a Turbo Man, for his attention-starved son.
A Taste of Christmas Tomorrow, 8:00 PM / LIF-E 38 After learning her cousin has to cancel the Christmas Eve launch of her new restaurant, a woman tries to find a way to make the opening happen, but she must convince the restaurant chef they can pull it off with three days until Christmas.
Christmas with the Darlings Tomorrow, 8:00 PM / HALMRK 68 After an assistant gives her final notice, she gets drawn into helping the younger brother of her wealthy boss as he looks after his orphaned nieces and nephew through the Christmas season.
Top Elf - Tis the Season to be Top Elf Tomorrow, 8:30 PM / NIC-E 36 For the second time in history, Santa Claus transports seven extraordinary elf contestants to the North Pole to compete for the title of Top Elf, and social media star Addison Rae joins Santa and Ms. Jingles to judge life-sized advent calendar.
Great Performances - Irving Berlin's Holiday Inn: The Broadway Musical Tomorrow, 9:00 PM / WEDU-DT 3 / PBS / HDTV The Broadway adaptation of the classic 1942 movie musical "Holiday Inn," showcases the score by Irving Berlin, with big dance numbers, comedy and a hit parade of some of the songwriter's famous songs, including the Oscar-winning "White Christmas."
An Old Fashioned Christmas Tomorrow, 9:00 PM / HALLDRMHD 1124 / HDTV When an aspiring writer and her wealthy grandmother travel to Ireland to get her work published, they meet a family who are in desperate need of her fortune and try to make her fall in love, so they can inherit her wealth.
Annie Tomorrow, 9:27 PM / WAM-W 389 A spunky girl who lives in an orphanage is chosen to spend the Christmas holidays with a billionaire who grows to love the child, and wants to adopt her, but her true happiness may be jeopardized by the scheming headmistress of her orphanage.
Christmas at the Plaza Tomorrow, 10:00 PM / HALMRK 68 With the holiday season approaching, an archival historian in a declining relationship gets hired to create an exhibition to honor the history of an event, and she ends up working with a decorator and soon finds herself falling in love.
A Very Charming Christmas Town Tomorrow, 10:05 PM / LIF-E 38 A travel and lifestyle blogger heads to a small Danish town in California to write about their extravagant Christmas celebration, but she clashes with the local community coordinator assigned to give her a tour of the village.
Biggest Little Christmas Showdown Tomorrow, 11:01 PM / HGTV 57 / New A group of miniaturists, people who make and collect miniature objects, competes to create tiny holiday homes and villages that boast a Christmastime theme, and the winning exhibit is to be recreated as a full-size vacation home
submitted by SWGalaxysEdge to christmas [link] [comments]

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 13 Analysis and Picks (Speed run)

Week 12 Recap: Meh, not our worst showing this year, haha. How can I be so spot on with game predictions, but still be struggling in my singles plays this season. Very curious. Putting a pin in it to think about, however... Let's move on!
Singles (8-17 -12.87u)
Parlays (0-4 0u) All Free Bets
Teasers (0-1 -4u)
BBDLS (0-6 -2.2u)

Sunday Games
Detroit at Chicago: Lions just fired coach and GM. Chicago has Mitch back. It seems the Lions can't win games without Galloday and Swift. It already appears Galloday is out. Swift is questionable and even if he plays should carry a limited snap count. Chicago essentially starting their playoffs with this game. Does it continue?

Cincinnati at Miami: Bengals starting Brandon Allen again. He didn't look horrible last week, however without a 105yrd kickoff return for CIN, that games 4th quarter wouldn't have been nearly as close as it was. Miami brought back the FitzMagic last week and he delivered an ABC performance against the struggling Jets, keeping Miami in the playoff contention with an outside shot at still winning the AFC East. While my algo has them with an almost 90% chance of winning, it only has them covering the spread around 42%.

Indianapolis at Houston: Colts had a hard fall last week, giving up the divisional lead to the Titans. Houston is playing much better now but suffered the loss of two players to suspension this week. My algo has this one closer to a 24-25 IND and thinks Indy only covers 34% of the time. Might even put a little sprinkle on the Texans.

Jacksonville at Minnesota: Jacksonville played tough last week and is sticking with Glennon. Minnesota has an opportunity to be .500 for the first time this year and an outside shot at the playoffs. Cook and Theilen are back and I expect Min to get the win here. However, Algo only likes a MIN cover 39% of the time.

Las Vegas at New York Jets: One would expect the Raiders to take care of business against the winless Jets, however last weeks blowout loss vs. the Falcons doesn't instill the most confidence .Also, last years similar spot and loss is a little scary:
" Las Vegas (6-5), in a battle with Miami, Indianapolis and Baltimore for the final two wild card spots in the AFC, were in a similar position last season. And that 3-7 Jets squad thumped the 6-4 Raiders, 34-3, as quarterback Sam Darnold played arguably his best game as a professional, going 20-of-29 passing for 315 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while also rushing for another score. "
Carr traveling East for a 1pm game 🤔
The Jets have decided to roll with Darnold as long as he is healthy.
My algo has this as a projected 27-20 LV with a cover% of only 54. A little worried on this game as I could easily see the Raiders winning 31-13, but also see them losing 20-17. Maybe the play in this one is the Under😏

New Orleans at Atlanta: Divisional rematch of two weeks ago. For some reason, just like last year, the Falcon's defense played horribly in the first half, but decides to show up for the second half of the season. They were a little lost in the first match up, but I expect them to have a better defensive showing this time around. NO is 2-0 with Taysum starting. I expect their defense to continue to perform, especially against a divisional rematch. However, I don't think Taysum will fair as well this time around. ATL +3.5, @ home, in the rematch, plus no Brees?
ALGO favors ATL points, and the Under. Might even drop some sprinkles on the cupcake.

Cleveland at Tennessee: BIG match up here. Two playoff contenders in the same conference. Both have amazing running games. Cleveland gets back Miles Garret this week. Tenn might be getting back Humphries. My algo has this as TEN -3.5 and a cover of the 5.5 only 36%. You know that means we will be looking dog here. More excited to watch this game and check out 3 of the top 5 running backs right now. (Maybe only 2, but Hunt is pretty ok)
Might be worth a little sprinkle on the cupcakes!

New York Giants at Seattle: Giants HAVE won 3 in a row, and their defense is looking decent. However, those wins have come against Washington, Philadelphia and Cincinnati -- teams with a combined record of 9-22-2. (and cincy could have been a loss if Burrow didnt go down)
Seattle is rounding into Superbowl form and on top of their defense starting to gel, get Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde is back after injuries sidelined both for a month.
While I expect Seattle to win almost always, their M.O. is winning close games. So double digit points is not something I will look at against a defense capable of scoring.

LA Rams at Arizona: Rams horrible loss last week. It's like Shanahan just knows how to out coach McVay. Arizona hasn't really won a game (besides a last second hail marry) in a month. If they were a playoff contender, they should have taken care of New England last week. Majority of $$ on AZ right now, yet the line opened at -1 and has climbed to LA -3 in most spots. RLM on the minority always has me looking that way.

Eagles at Packers: Eagles have looked like trash. Packers have shined like gold. My algo has this only GB -5.5 so as the line climbs higher, I can't help but look at Philly. Their perception is trash, however their defense is decent. Tied for second in sacks this year and 5th in 3rd down completion percentage. (their defense vs opponents offense) If this was a normal year I would LOVE some philly sprinkles.

New England at LA Chargers: I am going to avoid this game. I personally love Bill B and this year have taken a liking to Justin Herbert. The line is almost nothing so I can't see much value here in a coin flip game.

Denver at Kansas City: Primetime divisional battle. Does anyone give Denver a chance to Win this game? Outside of Mahomey getting taken out of the game and a ton of penalties giving DEN great field position for a ton of scores...No. But also, how often have you ever seen me ride double digit lines. If it is, it is the dog. And do I step in front of the KC pain train? No. Skip

Mon/Tue games: Leans on PIT ml, SF ml, DAL spread

I have 30u of FB to use this week. You know they are going in the parlay section :D
Singles (76-103, -38.03u)
Parlays (6-27, +37.76u)
Teasers (2-3, +23.38u)
BBDLS (0-56, -44.09u)
Thank you for Reading. Good luck to everyone!
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]

Tsla options and an interesting background story

TSLA options
This is officially my first post to reddit. Long time reader, I also watch YouTube videos and don’t have an account so please forgive if my posting etiquette is off. Use to be a casual trader have a degree in economics with specialty in behavioral economics and minor in psychology. Also initially left college in my sophomore year (2010) to move to California and start a dispensary. I was going to McGill university in Montreal for those of you who don’t know of it(most Americans). FYI I am American myself and I’m Canada they call Harvard americas McGill (not bragging personally I still believe college is a tax on lower and middle class). I visited a friend on spring break and this is a time when a gram of weed would get you a night in jail and a misdemeanor and if you are lucky enough to live in Texas or Tennessee and be black either 1-10 in jail and at minimum they’d take your car or house or whatever expensive enclosed space you owned in which they found it or probably planted it. I could not believe what I was seeing when I went to see my friend (LA) and ultimately never returned from spring break. These were also the days when the laws in California were changing so fast that if you got a dispensary license in about 6 months you could sell the license for 10-100x what you paid for it (2k -7k if you used a lawyer or 500$ if you did all the paperwork yourself). I ended up starting the first 24hr delivery dispensary (legal) in California at that time probably the world. Needless to say it was very successful, after about a year I hired someone else to run the day to day and mostly became a semi professional gambler which many of you would consider yourselves. The difference is I was actually gambling in casinos. This is not a story in which I stupidly lose all my money at a craps table although there were some fear and loathing-esque weekends during this time that are noteworthy themselves. Also to note I decided to move with exactly 2$ to my name and my parents cutting me off because I was leaving college, luckily I also owned (or rather rented for free) a spot on my dear friends couch (who would later end up being an employee). Within 6 months I was worth about 50k within 12 I was making that much every week. This is the part where some of you may become disappointed because of all the interesting preamble that sounded like it was going to end in a crazy story where I used 50 lbs of weed to leverage a massive short on some stock because I had 24hrs to pay off the Armenian mafia or they would give me a Chinese haircut. Despite the fact that that did happen (with some minor liberties taken in the description although ones that make it actually less crazy of a story) it’s not what I am here writing about. I ended up starting my dispensary by winning 48k one night at the native casino near LA can’t remember the name but anyone from SoCal knows what it’s called. I was also a casual trader albeit very successful when I took it seriously. My dad is also a doctor so I essentially invested it all on ARNA before the fda approval of their new weight loss drug (at the time) I think it was called belviq. Anyway it was a killer, went from like 5 bucks to like 25 in a couple of days and I was looking good to start my business. Since then I’ve continued to dabble and did a lot of shorting but hated the risk, was unaware of options trading. After reading a couple articles online I started getting into it, fast forward to me studying economics (In which I didn’t learn much I didn’t already know except how to use programs to analyze massive amounts of data to find out trends that mostly my own intuition was good enough to tell me), but now atleast I’m a “respectable person” in the eyes of my parents and the business world. Ultimately since this is my first post I decided to go big and long with it because I just felt that would be proper and maybe someone would be entertained, and maybe in the future I will divulge the actual crazy shit that happened but wall street bets doesn’t seem like the right thread (?). I just wanted to introduce myself and say, when TSLA hit 964 two days ago how many thousands of wallstreeters and tens of thousands of thousands or hundreds or however many of you redditors that are trading options and know half a twats worth what you’re doing did jizz their pants and buy some puts. Personally I like to gamble only saw it once it had dipped down to 900$ before closing but was trending down already. I figured I’d buy something that had a really short execution period for cheap af at like 895$ and once it dipped to like 865 or something sell but ultimately I knew in my heart as most of u do that it was going to drop to maybe 700 or lower. Didn’t have the liquidity to do what I would have liked but called some of the rich people I know who did and they wanted to jerk me off at 11 am the next morning. The few who missed out were begging for what next. One particular who is a relative of mine and a VP at major software company (think top 3) argued that wouldn’t everyone be buying puts and isn’t that what drove the price up? Wouldn’t it be better to sell options on the tsla shares you own and then if it goes down you made some cash and buy more at the lower price. I’m sure many of you know why that is a much weaker play and has way less upside and at the same time limits your risk way less. When the morning came he and others who didn’t follow thru were dying they missed out and asking me what to do next. I hadn’t looked much but it seemed to be bottoming out at 7 and I assumed put buyers were starting to executing their contracts so I said buy calls near 700 and do it for the shortest period u can find in terms of days. By lunch time it’s at 750$ ofcourse and my suggestion of 10-20 contracts would be betting a nice 80-90k maybe more if u bought the ridiculously short term options. Most of them were able to cash out my relative who is an exec at (insert top software company here) still missed out. He had to go into a meeting and didn’t have enough time to execute and wanted to die as he watched the stock jump 50$ and the imaginary dollars that would have been piling up in his investment account disappearing for the second time in one day for the levels he trades and wanted to buy this would have been around 1m maybe he would have made. After his meeting he messages me “uhh I think I need you to manage part of my portfolio, can you do the options trading for me and manage my short term stocks? I don’t have enough time to watch the market because of meetings etc. and when I see what I’m missing out on I can’t pay attentions during the meetings and it’s fucking up my productivity.” - me : “ well I don’t want to have access to your password etc. and be responsible if some fucked shit happens in your portfolio I don’t want to be blamed. Also if I don’t know how I feel about making you millions and then accepting whatever tip you feel is appropriate. Obviously we could do like a percentage but I’d feel better about starting a separate fund and you can put in whatever you feel comfortable investing and we can see how it goes. I Send the same message to everyone in my thread. Looks like I may have inadvertently started a hedge fund let’s see how it goes. Depending on the funding I will repost with proof.
submitted by 81Gdummy to investing [link] [comments]

My take on fixing the Dark Universe

Much like Frankenstein's famous monster, the Dark Universe is probably doomed to be remembered as a failed experiment cobbled together from spare parts, and a cautionary tale about the perils of playing God. As Universal Pictures found out the hard way: creating a universe is really hard, even if that universe happens to be fictional.
At best, Dracula Untold and The Mummy were just a pair of bland, forgettable fantasy films with a few neat ideas thrown in. At worst, they embody the most deplorable excesses of Hollywood's love affair with franchises and reboots, and they serve as a reminder that a "cinematic universe" isn't a magic bullet that guarantees massive success.
In case you forgot: Dracula Untold bombed so hard that the studio retroactively exiled it from the franchise (and they don't even like to admit that it was ever part of a franchise), and The Mummy put the name of the franchise in its opening credits before the franchise was even established.
But was this series always doomed to failure, or was it just flawed in its execution? Call me crazy, but I think there was the kernel of a great series in both of those movies, even as disappointing as they were.
A Dracula movie set in the Middle Ages, with historical details about the real Vlad Dracula thrown in? Awesome! A Mummy movie that's also a spy thriller, where Tom Cruise plays an undead superhero? Okay, that was stupid... But that room full of classic monster Easter Eggs was pretty cool, right?
So what happened? In short: a lot of things. Dracula Untold had a promising story, but I really think its premise ran into a big problem:
Origin stories are extremely hard to do well.
They're definitely not impossible (the rules of storytelling are more like guidelines, after all), but not every character can be improved with a definitive origin story.
It's one thing to make a feature-length origin story about an iconic hero like James Bond or Batman, since they're sympathetic characters whom we're meant to identify with. For anybody who's ever daydreamed about being a superhero or a secret agent, those fantasies instantly become a lot more vivid when we see a hero's human side, and we learn how they came to be; once we see that our heroes aren't so different from us, it's easier to imagine that we could be like them.
Monsters, though? Monsters are a different story. While most great villains have a human side, they usually become iconic because they embody something primal and archetypal that we find scary, and they derive their power from their mystery.
Moviegoers of the 1960s loved Ernst Stavro Blofeld because he embodied everything that they found scary about dictators on the far side of the Iron Curtain. Comic book fans love the Joker because he's the personification of chaos, and he embodies everything that we find scary about crime. And supernatural villains like Maleficent, the Wicked Witch of the West, and—yes—Dracula embody everything that we find scary about the occult.
That's probably why most James Bond fans loved it when Casino Royale explored Bond's origins, but hated it when Spectre tried to do the same for Blofeld. It's also probably why Batman fans loved it when Batman Begins explained how Bruce Wayne became Batman, but didn't mind that The Dark Knight explained almost nothing about the Joker. And it's probably why Maleficent and Oz the Great and Powerful got such lukewarm receptions when they tried to explain how Maleficent and the Wicked Witch became evil. When you explain too much about an iconic villain, you run the risk of robbing them of their mystique.
(That's also why I'm not so optimistic about the upcoming Joker origin movie, though I'll wait until it comes out before I criticize it)
The thing is, though...a prequel doesn't necessarily have to be an origin story. It's possible to shed some light on a character's past without devoting a whole story to explaining how they became the way they are. Case in point: compare the movie Hannibal Rising to the TV series Hannibal. They're both prequels to the Hannibal Lecter saga, but one was a critically panned box-office bomb, and the other was a critically praised cult classic with a devoted fandom. Why? There are a lot of reasons why—but for starters, one was devoted to "explaining" how Lecter became Lecter, and the other actually gives Lecter a chance to be Lecter.
Instead of just answering every single question about Lecter's past, Hannibal devotes its creative energy to being a genuinely solid crime drama with a strong dose of gothic horror, and it actually manages to stand on its own alongside The Silence of the Lambs and Red Dragon without being entirely defined by either of them. In a perfect world, that's the sort of prequel that Dracula Untold should have been: a solid supernatural horror story set in the Middle Ages, which could paved the way for the original Dracula without being entirely defined by it.
But what if we actually had gotten a Dracula prequel like that? And what if we had gotten a Mummy movie that logically built on its plot points, and set up the framework of a franchise without shoving it down our throats? And what if we had gotten, say, a Frankenstein movie and a Wolf Man movie that built on both of them, and set up an epic "monster mash" in the vein of Frankenstein Meets the Wolf Man or House of Dracula? What might those movies have looked like?
Well...
Dracula: Untold (2014)
Setting: Transylvania, 1473
As our movie opens, we're introduced to our protagonist: a handsome, dark-haired Prince who rules over a vast swath of territories in Eastern Europe, including Transylvania. A lifelong soldier, he's led his people to victory in dozens of battles, he always wears a suit of armor, and he can wield a sword as well as any of his loyal knights. If it helps, you can imagine imagine Luke Evans playing him.
But protagonist isn't Vlad Tepes (the man better known as "Dracula", or "Vlad the Impaler"). Instead, he's a different historical monarch: Matthias Corvinus, the King of Hungary. As any Dracula fan will tell you, Matthias Corvinus was arguably the single most important figure in the historical Dracula's life; a revered monarch who became legendary for his prowess in battle and his patronage of the arts, he was alternately an ally and rival of Prince Vlad of Wallachia, who fought alongside him against the Ottoman Empire. Here, Matthias is our hero, and Dracula is the villain of the story—as he should be.
Over the course of his three decades on the throne, Matthias has seen the world change, not always for the better. It's been twenty years since the great city of Constantinople fell to the Ottoman sultan Mehmed II, spelling the end of the last vestiges of the Roman Empire. As the sultan's power grows, the lords and princes of Christian Europe fear that the religion of Islam will soon dominate the West. While all of this plays out, rumors spread of strange creatures hiding in the shadowy lands east of the Carpathian Mountains, where the brutal prince Vlad—called "Dracula", or "Son of the Beast"—holds sway over the kingdom of Wallachia.
While Mehmed's armies grow ever closer to the borders of Matthias' kingdom, Matthias answers a call for help from the province of Transylvania, where strange and terrible things are afoot. The corpses of peasants are turning up in the woods, completely drained of their blood; entire villages are vanishing without explanation; massive swarms of bats can be seen flying over the countryside in the dead of night; hunters regularly encounter enormous wolf-like creatures, which walk on two legs like men. Matthias realizes that his kingdom is falling under the sway of evil forces, and he must confront them.
Against the advice of his men, Matthias decides to lead a party of knights across the Carpathian Mountains to investigate the rash of mysterious deaths, knowing that his journey will lead him into the heart of Wallachia. As he and his men travel farther and farther from home, they find themselves fighting for their lives against ferocious werewolves and hostile villagers, and they soon realize why so many villagers are vanishing: someone is turning them into mindless vampires, and they're leaving their homes to seek fresh blood. After one deadly confrontation with a swarm of vampires, Matthias is forced to behead one of his own knights to prevent him from becoming one of them, and a local apothecary offers him some advice on how to kill a vampire.
After explaining how to ward off vampires with stakes and crucifixes, the apothecary tells Matthias the disturbing tale of Prince Vlad, who hasn't been seen outside of his castle in months. She explains that she was once a servant in the castle, but fled for her life after she witnessed Vlad drinking blood from a chalice in a disturbing occult ritual. She believes that the Prince has become a vampire, and that he has sworn allegiance to Lucifer in exchange for eternal life. Though Matthias doubts her story about Vlad being in league with Lucifer, he knows that the vampires must have a master, and believes that it might be Vlad.
But the apothecary's warning comes too late: Matthias and his party are ambushed and captured by vampires, who take them to Prince Vlad's castle. When Matthias awakes, he finds himself in chains in Vlad's throne room, and Vlad—played by Charles Dance—formally introduces himself. He informs Matthias that he no longer answers to his old name, and is now only "Dracula". With that, Matthias is forced to watch helplessly as Dracula fatally impales his comrades on wooden stakes, and Dracula's vampire servants eagerly gather their blood in a chalice and present it to their master. As Dracula sips from his chalice, he informs Matthias that the apothecary's story was true: he really is a servant of Lucifer. And now that he has a noble-born prince as a captive, he plans to sacrifice him to Lucifer, which will grant him enough power to make him unstoppable.
While Dracula prepares the sacrifice ritual, he throws Matthias into his dungeon to await his fate. But with quick thinking and a little bit of luck, Matthias manages to escape after one of Dracula's brides disobeys her master's orders and sneaks into the dungeons to take some of Matthias' blood for herself. Heeding the apothecary's advice, he manages to fight his way through legions of vampires, and rushes back to Dracula's throne room to confront him. Just as he does, Dracula speaks the incantation to summon his master Lucifer, and Matthias finds himself staring through a fiery portal into Hell—where he sees Lucifer staring right back at him.
Just at that moment, salvation arrives: the sultan's army is on the march, and they've reached Dracula's castle. As Matthias picks up his sword and engages Dracula in battle, a barrage of cannon-fire rings out, and the Ottoman army lays siege to the castle. Little by little, the castle begins to crumble, and Dracula falls into the dungeons, where he's buried under a pile of stone rubble. As the castle's walls fall, Matthias makes his escape and sets off for home.
Days later, as Matthias lays down to sleep beside his wife, he has a disturbing dream about Dracula—who is trapped in the dungeons of his ruined castle, but very much alive. In his dream, Dracula assures him that he will rise again, and he reminds Matthias that he's immortal; the next time he threatens the people of Transylvania, Matthias may not be alive to stop him...
The Mummy: Unconquered (2016)
Setting: Egypt, 1798
Our story picks up more than 300 years after the sultan's troops destroyed Castle Dracula. The year is 1798, and the Ottoman Empire still rules over much of Eastern Europe and the Middle East—including Egypt, where the Mamluk rulers Mourad and Ibrahim swear fealty to the sultan. After decades of war and revolutionary upheaval in Europe, rumors spread of an ambitious Corsican military officer, who has risen through the ranks of the French Army to become one of the most feared men on the Continent. Now, with an unparalleled fighting force at his command, he plans to set his sights on Egypt. His name? Napoleon Bonaparte.
Our protagonist is a young Egyptian man named Salim, who reluctantly answers the call to enlist in the Egyptian Army as Napoleon's forces march from Alexandria and make their move on Cairo. He is forced to leave his fiancee, Yasmin, whose father Mustafa is a renowned scholar who manages a library in Cairo. As he fights with the Egyptian Army in the Battle of the Pyramids, he narrowly escapes with his life as the French Army massacres his friends and comrades, and takes hundreds of Egyptian prisoners. Unbeknownst to him, though, Napoleon has more than conquest on his mind; he's looking for the long-lost Temple of Set, which supposedly houses a fabled ceremonial dagger that can make its bearer unstoppable in battle. With the Egyptian forces scattered, he and his army strike out into the desert to seek out the temple. One of his commanders is a certain German baron, whose name will become important later.
Eventually, Napoleon finds his way to the temple, which is half-buried in the desert sands, and nearly inaccessible. But against all odds, he fights his way to the heart of the temple and takes the dagger, though he begins to have his doubts about whether it will really bring him the power that he seeks. As he leaves the temple, he doesn't notice that something is stirring in a stone sarcophagus...
Exhausted from battle, Salim manages to make his way back to Yasmin and her father in Cairo, just as Napoleon's forces swarm the streets. Together, they plan to flee the city before more soldiers arrive, but Mustafa refuses to go with them, insisting that he can't leave his library. Before they can make their escape, the German baron forces his way into Mustafa's library and threatens him at knife-point. He tells him that Napoleon has found the dagger in the Temple of Set, but he suspects that there is a secret to claiming its power—and he believes that he'll find that secret in one of the books in Mustafa's library. Visibly terrified, Mustafa insists that there is no such secret, but he tells the baron that he must return the dagger to the temple.
"The Dagger of Set is no key to power—it's a safeguard against a great evil. There are shadowy forces lurking in the Temple of Set, and the dagger is the only thing keeping them back! Once it's removed..."
But his warning comes too late: a monstrous horde of giant scarabs swarms the city of Cairo, attacking and devouring everyone in their path. Salim and co. manage to escape from the baron, and they take shelter in the cellar of Mustafa's library. As they hide from the rampaging insects, Mustafa explains the full story of the Temple of Set.
In his younger days, Mustafa was a scholar in the court of the sultan, and he had the opportunity to learn many secrets in his palace library. While there, he learned the story of Imhotep, an infamous high priest from the New Kingdom of Egypt who made a pact with the evil god Set in exchange for eternal life and everlasting power. It's said that the Pharaoh had Imhotep mummified alive and sealed in his own temple when he grew too powerful, and he placed the enchanted dagger in the temple to prevent him from leaving. For centuries, the Temple of Set has remained abandoned, and Imhotep has remained dormant—but he's as alive as ever, and only needs an opportunity to free himself. To seal him back in his prison, the dagger must be returned to its rightful place in the temple
"Over 300 years ago, the sultan's army laid siege to a castle in the Carpathian Mountains. Something evil dwelt in its foundations, and they dared not set it free. There are places in the world where evil gathers like a deadly plague, awaiting the chance to spread. That castle was one such place. The Temple of Set is another."
Back in the Temple of Set, Imhotep—a grotesque, withered figure wrapped in bandages—rises from his sarcophagus and summons a massive army of reanimated corpses. As Imhotep and his army march on Cairo together, the scarabs continue to swarm the city, and Salim and Yasmin fight to survive as they look for the missing dagger. When Napoleon's forces spot the army of corpses marching through the desert, they gather in formation to fight them off, and Salim takes the opportunity to steal the dagger from Napoleon's camp. In a massive battle, Napoleon and the baron lead a cavalry charge against Imhotep's forces, distracting them just long enough for Salim and Yasmin to make their way to the temple to return the dagger.
In the climax, Yasmin and Salim infiltrate the Temple of Set and fight their way to the center of the massive structure while Imhotep attempts to chase them down. Moments before they return the dagger to its resting place, they have a blood-curdling encounter with Set himself, whom Imhotep has summoned as a witness to his return. As Set taunts our heroes, his face changes shape for one brief moment, and becomes the face of Lucifer; though the moment is fleeting, it instantly becomes clear that Set and Lucifer are the same being—meaning that Imhotep and Dracula are in thrall to the same master.
Against all odds, they manage to return the dagger just before Imhotep closes in on them. Imhotep cries out to his master Set to save him, but the god turns his back on him, coldly telling him that he's not worthy of his power if he can be foiled by a pair of lowly mortals. Meanwhile, Imhotep's undead soldiers crumble into dust as Napoleon's army holds them off. When the dust settles, the baron has been grievously injured in the fighting, and has lost his right leg.
With that, Salim and Yasmin settle down in Cairo to start a family together. Though Imhotep has been defeated, Napoleon's forces remain in Egypt, and Salim and Yasmin must face the harsh reality of living under foreign occupation. In the final scene, Napoleon sends the injured baron back to Germany for medical treatment, and thanks him for his fine service as he bids him farewell.
"You've fought well. Travel safely, Baron Von Frankenstein..."
Frankenstein: Unchained (2018)
Setting: Germany, 1820
A little over twenty years after Imhotep and his undead army were defeated in Egypt, the German nobleman Alphonse Von Frankenstein—a battle-hardened veteran of the Napoleonic Wars—has settled down and started a family. Haunted by his experiences in Egypt (which he refuses to speak about), he is known for his cold demeanor, and his children Victor and Elizabeth often have a strained relationship with him. Their relationship becomes even more difficult when Alphonse's wife Caroline suddenly dies of scarlet fever when Victor is just a child, causing Alphonse to become a chronically depressed recluse. A bookish child, Victor seeks solace in scientific texts, and soon becomes obsessed with esoteric disciplines like alchemy and mysticism; haunted by the loss of his mother, he is determined to find a way to conquer death through science, and believes that it might be possible to create life in a laboratory.
Though Elizabeth becomes concerned about her brother's mental state, Victor soon proves himself as a science prodigy, and he eventually receives an exclusive invitation to study medicine at Ingolstadt University, a prestigious German university with a rather ghoulish reputation. Though no one has ever been able to prove it, it's rumored that the students and faculty at Ingolstadt often perform grotesque experiments on live human test subjects. Supposedly, some of the students have even done research on how to resurrect the dead.
While studying at Ingolstadt, Victor soon becomes intrigued by the sprawling university and its many hidden places. As he soon learns, the school is also home to a highly exclusive secret society known as "Prodigium", whose members have access to the most jealously guarded texts and research in the school's inner sanctum. Victor exhaustively pursues his studies in science and medicine, and he finally gets his chance to join the ranks of Prodigium when his wealthy roommate Igor Waldman reveals that he is a member, and he tells Victor that he has been nominated for membership. Ecstatic, Victor accompanies Igor to attend Prodigium's initiation ritual on the night of a full moon, and he's finally given access to the secret library at the heart of Ingolstadt.
As the assembled members of Prodigium don hooded cloaks and gather around a circle of candles surrounding a mirror, Victor suddenly realizes—to his utter horror—that the group is actually an occult sect, and they regularly gather in the library for pagan rites and rituals. When the initiation ritual commences, the group begins chanting a prayer to a being known as "The Dark One", and they call Victor forward to join in. When he does, a mysterious black-eyed figure appears in the mirror and beckons to him; as he looks on, the figure's face changes, first becoming the face of Lucifer, then the face of Set. As Victor looks around at his surroundings, he realizes that the room is filled with antique art, including a set of Egyptian hieroglyphs depicting Imhotep, and an oil portrait of Dracula. Though Victor is terrified by all that he sees, Igor convinces him to stay, telling him that Prodigium has the resources to make his dreams a reality.
"I know that you have potential, Victor. You want to create life. Some might call you mad, but we understand. The power to create life shouldn't belong to God alone. You can lead the way into a new age. We'll be right behind you!"
Victor accepts his membership in Prodigium, giving him access to the laboratory in Ingolstadt's inner sanctum—where he has a fully stocked vault of chemicals and scientific equipment at his disposal, along with all of the cadavers and preserved organs that he could ever need. As he begins to experiment on human bodies, Igor moves into the lab to assist him, and he subtly encourages Victor when he begins to have doubts about the ethics of his work. Finally, many months later, Victor manages to piece together a complete human specimen from preserved body parts, and he and Igor prepare to use a lightning storm to bring the specimen to life. As the Creature comes to life on the laboratory slab, Victor—overcome with emotion—names it "Adam", reminded of the story of the Garden of Eden. But Igor rebukes Victor for invoking the Bible, and tells him that he shouldn't get too attached to the Creature. With that, the other members of Prodigium appear and drag the Creature into the crypts beneath the laboratory.
It turns out that Victor was always just a pawn in Prodigium's ultimate plan: creating a living vessel for their master, "The Dark One", that will allow him to cross into the mortal world and rule over humanity. Since the Creature is an artificially created being, he has no soul, making his body the perfect empty vessel for the Dark One's soul. Now that Victor's experiment has succeeded, they have only to wait until the next full moon to perform the summoning ritual.
Against all odds, the Creature successfully manages to escape from the crypts, and he flees into the Bavarian countryside. As Igor and his friends leave the university to hunt him down, Victor sets out to find the Creature before Prodigium does, determined to save him. Fortunately, he finds the Creature taking refuge in a local farmhouse, and he comforts him and brings him food. As the Creature takes shelter, Victor tells him that his true name is "Adam", and he promises that he won't let Prodigium take him. To his surprise, the Creature—Adam—speaks to him, revealing that he's intelligent and capable of understanding human speech. As they take the time to get to know each other, Victor resolves to smuggle him out of the country and take him where Prodigium can't hurt him.
Their moment of peace turns out to be fleeting; some of the local villagers are in league with Prodigium, and they tip Igor off about Victor's location. As Prodigium closes in, Adam fights back, revealing his superhuman strength as he kills six of Igor's goons with his bare hands. Finally, Victor and Adam manage to board a stagecoach, and a frantic chase ensues as they race through the countryside. After several days on the run, they manage to make it to the port of Hamburg, where Victor hopes to find Adam safe passage on a steamship. Unfortunately, Prodigium manages to head them off.
In a climactic final standoff with Igor, Victor sacrifices his life to save Adam as he boards his ship. As the ship pulls away from the port, Adam watches helplessly as his creator dies, and he promises that he'll make his sacrifice a worthy one.
In the final scene, back at the Frankenstein family estate, Elizabeth receives a letter written in handwriting that she doesn't recognize. As she reads it, she breaks down in tears as she learns that her beloved brother Victor has died, but the anonymous sender assures her that he died a noble man.
To her surprise, the letter doesn't come with a return address. As the sender cryptically remarks: "It's best that nobody find me..."
The Wolf Man: Untamed (2020)
Setting: America, 1862
A little over 40 years after the death of Victor Frankenstein, the United States has been split in two by the American Civil War, dividing many American families in the heartland. One such family is the Talbots, a family of poor farmers in rural Kansas, who find themselves caught in the middle of a clash between rival pro-slavery and anti-slavery factions.
One fateful day in 1856, 15 year-old Lawrence Talbot is forced to watch helplessly as his father John Talbot is brutally executed by marauders after he's discovered sheltering slaves. Though he never learns the name of his father's killer, he remembers just one detail about the man: he was carrying a distinctive black walking stick with a silver wolf's head on the handle. Six years later, with the war in full-swing, he reluctantly joins the Union Army, and finds himself deployed to Tennessee to fight the Confederates at Shiloh.
During a frenzied exchange of gunfire, Lawrence suddenly recognizes one of the soldiers in the Confederate Army, and realizes—much to his horror—that it's the marauder who killed his father. Six years after killing John Talbot, the man has risen up the ranks of the Confederate Army, and he is now a decorated lieutenant in the service of Colonel Nathan Bedford Forrest. Though he initially doubts his eyes, Lawrence's suspicions are confirmed when his comrades are called to pursue the retreating Confederates, and he discovers the black walking stick abandoned in the mud, complete with the distinctive wolf's head.
As Talbot and his comrades march through the war-torn countryside, they're eventually caught in a Confederate ambush, forcing Talbot and some of his friends to escape into a nearby forest. Fleeing deeper and deeper into the shadowed woods, they find themselves hopelessly lost when night falls. Before long, they hear a strange growling and snarling in the darkness—the telltale sounds of a wolf on the prowl. One by one, Talbot's companions are dragged off into the woods as the wolf hunts them down, and Talbot desperately tries to flee as he hears them being torn to shreds. He runs as fast as his legs will take him, but he can't outrun the wolf, and he passes out as it pounces on him from behind.
To his surprise, Talbot wakes up in a medical tent in a Confederate prison camp, and finds a surgeon tending to his wounds. The surgeon tells him that the Confederates found in the forest, the sole survivor of an apparent wolf attack. While all of his friends were mangled beyond recognition, Talbot got off with just a bite in the leg, and the wolf apparently left him before it could inflict further injuries.
Though the surgeon mends Talbot's leg wound, he tells Talbot that he has been taken as a prisoner of war, and he'll be held in the camp until further notice. Later, when a Confederate officer comes to interrogate him, Talbot learns that the black walking stick was confiscated during his capture; it turns out that its owner is Lieutenant Paul Montford, a well-known officer in the Tennessee Cavalry.
For days, Talbot languishes in the prison camp, growing progressively more angry at his captors as he endures repeated physical abuse and subsists on meager prison rations. Still, he vows to keep going, knowing that his father's killer is still out there.
Then a full moon rises...
As he watches the full moon rise over the countryside, Talbot suddenly feels thick hair growing all over his body, he feels his teeth growing longer and sharper, and he feels his hands and feet becoming razor-clawed paws. Overcome by feral rage, he lets out a mighty howl as he rips off the door of his holding pen. Roaring and snarling, he charges at the Confederate guards as they surround him and open fire, and he effortlessly tears through their ranks, biting and slashing at every soldier that dares cross him.
As the Rebels and the Union prisoners flee in terror, Talbot finally manages to fight his way to the officer who interrogated him. Pinning the helpless man to the ground, he snatches the black walking stick out of his hand. As he holds it in front of him, he snarls a single word:
"WHERE?!"
Terrified, the officer replies "Corinth Road!", and Talbot leaves him alive as he bounds off into the distance toward Corinth Road.
Sure enough, Montford and his men are making camp upcountry, near Corinth Road. As Talbot makes his way to the camp, the sun eventually rises, restoring his human form. Still, he charges forward, determined to kill Montford at all costs.
With his clothes shredded by his transformation, Talbot creeps into the camp when night falls again, and he manages to steal a spare Confederate uniform from a sleeping soldier's pack. In disguise, he sneaks into Montford's tent with a pistol in hand, prepared to shoot him on the spot.
To his surprise, Montford stays completely calm when he sees him, and gives him a knowing smile.
"I had a feeling you'd find me, one of these days. You never stop. Neither would I, if somebody had done to me what I did to you. Don't worry, Talbot. I don't blame you for turning that gun on me. An animal can't tame his instincts. I suppose only one of us is leaving this tent alive."
Confused, Talbot demands to know why Montford is accepting his fate so calmly.
"You've got the rage of a wild beast in you, son," Montford says. "So do I. That's why I let you live. Even a wolf can sense a kindred spirit."
Horrified, Talbot flashes back to the night in the forest when the wolf bit him, and he realizes that Montford was the wolf all along. Montford is a werewolf, and he carries the wolf-head cane because he came to terms with his beastly nature long ago, and now accepts it as a part of who he is. That night, he recognized Talbot as the son of the man he killed, and he chose to pass on his lycanthropy to him rather than killing him, believing that he deserved a chance to take his revenge.
As Talbot realizes the truth, Montford changes into his lupine form and prepares to fight him—since he has years of experience in using his abilities, and he no longer needs the power of the full moon to become a werewolf. Talbot futilely tries fight him off with his pistol, but Montford goads him on, telling him to surrender to the wolf's instincts and embrace his true self.
Flashing back to the night that his father was killed, Talbot finally loses control of his anger and feels his animalistic side overtaking his mind. As he becomes a werewolf again, he squares off with Montford in an epic one-on-one battle. He sustains multiple serious injuries in the fight, but ultimately manages to slash his throat with his claws, killing him.
Just at that moment, Talbot's Union comrades finally arrive at the camp after days of chasing the Confederates. When they find Talbot—now a werewolf—standing over Montford's bloodied corpse, they surround him and open fire. Now fully lost to his werewolf instincts, Talbot charges at his old friends, attacking them as ferociously as he attacked the Confederates.
After taking multiple bullet wounds, Talbot is finally forced to flee, but the Union soldiers pursue him through the forests. As word spreads of a wild beast on the loose, Talbot finds himself chased by more soldiers every day, and he's forced to flee into the Appalachian highlands to escape them. After weeks on the run, moving further north with every day, he eventually finds himself in the thick evergreen forests near the Canadian border, where the weather grows bitterly cold. Finally, after going days without food, Talbot reverts to his human form as he collapses in the forest from exhaustion, accepting that he can run no longer.
But as he waits to die, Talbot is approached by a tall figure in a battered leather overcoat, whose face is hidden by a thick hood. The mysterious figure gathers him in his arms and carries him off to a nearby cabin, where he wraps him in animal skins and brings him food.
As soon as Talbot wakes up, we get a good look at his rescuer, and we see that it's none other than Frankenstein's Creature! Forty decades after escaping Prodigium, the Creature is still alive and well, and living a life of seclusion in the Canadian wilderness.
As he regains his strength, Talbot breaks down in tears as he realizes what he did. He's gotten his revenge, but he fears that he's lost his humanity in the process.
"I'm a monster..." he sadly laments.
The Creature puts a comforting hand on his shoulder.
"They called me a monster once, too. But it doesn't matter. Even a monster has a soul, and even the most troubled soul can find redemption. You'll find yours too, even if the journey is longer than you'd like. There are darker things in this world than the empty space in your heart, friend."
Reflecting on all that he's seen and done, Talbot ventures outside the cabin and takes in the unspoiled beauty of the forest, realizing that the woods are now his only home. But as long as he has at least one friend, perhaps they're not such a bad home...
But after the credits roll, we see a mysterious dark-haired man creep through the shadowed pathways of the Carpathian Mountains, making his way towards the rubble of Castle Dracula. As he approaches the ruined castle, a familiar voice speaks to him from the depths of the castle's crypt. It's the voice of Dracula—who's still alive after all these years, and hungry for revenge.
"It's time, Renfield, he says. "The Dark One hungers for sacrifice. But he has other servants than me. Go to Egypt. In the Temple of Set, you'll find the one who will join us. With him on our side, the armies of the dead will be unstoppable!"
At the Mediterranean coast, Renfield boards a steamship headed for Egypt, and the screen goes dark...
TL;DR: The films are all set in different historical periods, building up to a four-way battle between Dracula, the Wolf Man, the Mummy and Frankenstein's Monster. The overarching villain is a figure known as "The Dark One" (also known as "Lucifer" and "Set"), who lurks in the background.
Dracula Untold: In 15th century Transylvania, the warrior prince Matthias Corvinus embarks on a quest to confront his rival Vlad (aka "Dracula") after witnessing a series of vampire attacks, and he discovers that Vlad has pledged his soul to Lucifer in exchange for eternal life. In the finale, Vlad's castle is destroyed by the armies of the Ottoman sultan, temporarily defeating him.
The Mummy Unconquered: During Napoleon Bonaparte's invasion of Egypt in 1798, French soldiers attempt to steal a powerful Egyptian artifact, but accidentally unleash the undead priest Imhotep and his army of mummies, who answer to the god Set. In the finale, Napoleon's army battles Imhotep's undead legions in a massive battle sequence, and one of Napoleon's German commanders is revealed to be Baron von Frankenstein.
Frankenstein Unchained: Baron von Frankenstein's son Victor leaves home to study medicine at the shady Ingolstadt University, where his roommate Igor Waldman invites him to join the clandestine mystic cult "Prodigium". When Victor creates his Creature (aka "Adam"), he discovers that Prodigium actually wants to use him as a living vessel for "The Dark One", who they worship. In the finale, Victor sacrifices himself to save Adam from Igor, and Adam flees Europe in a steamship.
The Wolf Man Untamed: During the American Civil War, Kansan farmboy Lawrence Talbot joins the Union Army in hopes of finding the Confederate soldier who killed his father, but he finds himself bitten by a werewolf while stranded in the woods during a battle. He ultimately gets the revenge that he seeks, but nearly loses his mind to his new animal instincts, forcing him to flee into the wilds of Canada to escape his old comrades. In the finale, he is taken in by a mysterious forest-dwelling hermit, who turns out to be Frankenstein's Creature.
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CreateYoureReality NFL Week 4 Analysis and Picks (Sunday Games)

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 4 Analysis and Picks (Sunday Games)

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Last Week:
  • Singles: 8-7-1 [+1.55u] (0-3 in free bets for 0u change)
  • Parlays: 0-0 [0u]
  • Teasers: 2-2 [-1u] (\**Missed the big teaser at the casino by AZ +8.5 for an 88u win*****)*
Notes: Overall, a good opening week for us. The algo is still low on data so betting an early week and getting a win is a nice confidence boost that the algo is on track. Missed that AZ game out of hubris. Just saw Cam ruled out and Kyler Murray putting up fights and just rolled with it with little research. My error. I am grateful it happened early in the season so I can correct it. Outside of that, really happy with the outcome of the Eagles game. Lets move on to week 4!

Early Games (1pm)

Carolina @ Houston (-4): Well, my recent fuck up is the best place to start. :D Carolina looked like a real football team last week. I don't know yet if it was the QB change, or the fact that they played in a dome against a bottom of the league team, but there will be no more sleeping on Kyle Allen. Let the data collection begin! So far all we have is the game last week, and his start in week 17 last year. With this he is 2-0 and has thrown 6 TDs 0 Ints. Looks pretty good, but we cant just mentally give him Cam's job until we see how he handles adversity in difficult match ups once other teams have more film on him. But, as long as he keeps up a solid game managing TD to INT ratio, his stout pass D and above average running game should give him many opportunities to win in his next few starts. Houston came through for us last week with a road dog money line upset of the Chargers. They had to grind it out with rivers going 5-15 on 3rd downs and throwing 46 times but both sides of the ball did their job. This should turn out to be a good defensive battle. I would look for a lot of Sacks in this game as both teams like to send pressure. As long as their aren't a ton of D/ST scores, this looks to play to the under. ***Interesting note: Panthers DE Bruce Irvin will make his season debut Sunday after missing the first three games with a hamstring injury**.** \***

Cleveland @ Baltimore(-7): Our first divisional match up of the day. Both are coming off losses. Cleveland on prime time to an undefeated Rams team and Baltimore to an undefeated Chiefs team. No real injuries to note. These teams seem to have opposite identities at the moment. Cleveland has a pretty decent D, even with some minor injuries, but their offense has struggled to find rhythm. Baltimore has a pretty legit offense, but their D isn't the same as we are used to. I mean, with a Baltimore D of old, this team taking early leads would be unstoppable. But they let Kyler Murray come in and stay within a TD. Personally, I hope Baltimore SMOKEs Cleveland. I want them to take a division lead, get the public against Cleveland. Then watch Cleveland go 1-2 in October with a Loss, Win, Loss. Then they will be 2-5 overall and hopefully we will get GREAT odds on them to win the division. Then they win out the year with a laughable schedule and go 11-5 and 5-1 in the division. That's the plan! :D

Washington @ New York Giants (-3): Another divisional match up. This one with probably zero playoff implications. Barring Danny Dimes somehow being the next Mahommes and scoring 30 points a game, I cant see how this game matters to the league this year. Even IF double D scored 30 points a game, the Giants D is bad enough they still might lose those games. Washington is 0-3. They were just obliterated by the Bears on MNF last week. Keenum had like 12 INTs? This is going to be a battle of spirit IMO. The spirit of desperation by the Redskins vs. the new kid on the block in NY playing his first home game as a regular season starter. I like the way DD came out and handled the pressure. He even did it with Barkley going down (now out 4-6 weeks). But I dont like how bad the Giants secondary is. I think there is a better chance of Keenum making up for his performance last week by coming out strong against this Giants D, than there is of DD carrying the team to another win off pure Spirit. But spirit is a powerful thing! If there was no spread, i would have to side with the Giants...but give me 3 points in what I think is an evenly bad match up? It may swing me to the road dog. For now though, I dont see much edge on the spread and will probably just observe. HOWEVER! I did like how DD and Evan Ingram were in sync. Ingram is +200 to get a 100yd game and he is already 2 for 3 this year. Also, the over is getting bet hard so I look for opportunities for him.

L.A. Chargers @ Miami(+14.5): Well, well, well. One of my favorite spots in the NFL. A West Coast team traveling to the far East Coast to play a 1pm game. The Chargers are coming off a tough home loss to the Texans last week. The algo predicted it, which was nice for us, but the chargers lead for a good while, so I am sure it was even more stingy of a loss. Now they travel all the way to Miami to play a team with probably the worst 3 game start in NFL history. However. TWO things for me in this game. One: Rozen isn't bad. He played well, but his receivers currently drop more balls than they catch. He gave them a chance to take the lead near the end of the 1st half vs. Dallas. They faded in the second half, but they came out strong. Two: If you followed me last year, you will know I love betting against the west coast team in the first quartehalf when they are traveling east for a 1pm game. Their brains think its 10am and they are just a step slower to start the game. On the chargers side of the ball, Melvin Gordon has ended his holdout. He won't play this game, but is expected to play week 5. Austin Eckler will probably be taking his last shot as a starter for a while. I expect him to run with purpose. He also has the opportunity to do it against a Miami D that, well, I don't think I need to say more. :P

Oakland @ Indy(-7): Oakland opened the season strong with a win against Denver but has since suffered back to back crushing losses to playoff teams. Indy is 2-1 but could just as easily be 0-3. Brissett is managing and the Indy D is pretty legit. TY Hilton is doubtful for this game. Darren Waller is just 8 receptions away from beating Antonio Gates for the best 4 game start for a TE in NFL history. This feels like an Indy win, OAK cover type spot but I wouldn't sleep on OAK to get a potential upset.

Kansas City @ Detroit(+6.5/7/7.5): Both teams are undefeated with DET blowing an easy game against Arizona to give up a tie. All three of the NJ sites i frequent have a different line. I am finding this game one of the more difficult to judge. My gut instinct says Patty cakes is out there baking cakes. But I can't understand why there is enough favor on the DET side to keep this game from moving up to -8. I mean, so far over 80% of the spread tickets are on KC. Usually that should call for some more balance. But there was a lot of trouble pushing it through the key number of 7 so that has me weary of the spread. My spot for a bet? Travis Kelce has games of 88, 107, and 89 yards recieving this year. His O/U is 82.5 in a game that has a very high points total. I feel like he is almost always good for a 20yrd reception so really I am looking at a number closer to 65.


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New England @ Buffalo (+7): Dildo Time. Two 3-0 teams face for a KEY Divisional match up. It's safe to say there is a very strong chance both of these teams go 4-0 against the other 2 teams in the division. If Buffalo can steal away an early divisional game, they could really give themselves hope and excitement. Unfortunately for them they are facing the Patriots who's defense has yet to give up a TD against opposing offenses and a Patriots offense that is demolishing teams so far. I know the Bills are 3-0 and I normally loooove home dogs, but I just cant take the points here. To be honest, I can see another dildo game. HUGE expectations on the Bills, Brady comes in a wrecks them, dildos everywhere. Here's a tweet that has me thinking for dildos.
https://twitter.com/ChrisBrownBills/status/1177315496183631873?s=20

Tennessee @ Atlanta (-3.5): The final game of the 1pm slate. The Titans are what they have been in previous years. Inconsistent. They opened the season with a fantastic road win against the hyped Browns. Then lost a close Divisional game to the Colts before following that up with another Divisional loss vs. the Mustache. Atlanta has followed the same pattern of inconsistency of wins by getting blown out in their opener and upsetting the Eagles in game 2 and throwing away an opportunity to beat the Colts in week 3 by giving up an early lead and throwing a Key pick that could have given them a shot at a win. There are two things in this game that will have me side with the road dog. One: The Falcons lost S Keanu Neal. Two: The Titans have had a few extra days to prepare since their last game was a Thursday game.

Afternoon Games (4pm)

Seattle @ Arizona (+5/5.5): Both spreads are available to me, so its just a matter of if I like SEA or AZ. Seattle is coming off a disappointing home loss to the Brees-less Saints and sits at 2-1. Arizona is 0-3. Russel Wilson played spectacularly, but the Saints D/ST won the game for them building an early lead. Seattle tried to battle back and put up a valiant effort but fell short on time. Arizona looked like they could compete in weeks 1 and 2, but in week 3 lost a home game to a win-less team with a backup QB. There are some for sure props to look at in this game IMO. Cardinals are horrible against TEs giving up 131 and TD, 112 and a TD, and 75 and 2TDs. TE Will Dissly receptions and yards have progressed as follows: 1rec-12yds-0tds, 5rec-50yds-2tds, 6rec-62yds-1td. I think he is becoming a key target for Rus this year. They have also been burned by Stafford for 22yds rushing and Jackson for 120 rushing. I like Russ to have many opportunities to get his.
Tampa Bay @ LA Rams (-9): The Bucs are 1-2 coming off a disappointing last second missed 34 yard field goal to give DD his first win in his first start. The Rams are 3-0 coming off beating the Browns. I mean TB has a decent pass rush with Barrett, but their secondary is pretty bad, allowing the Giants to come back and win that game. I think this is a perfect opportunity for the Rams to get rolling on offense. I see them putting up base 27. So the question is, can the Bucs keep up to cover the spread and combined with that, can the Rams hold off garbage time points?

Minnesota @ Chicago (-1.5): A HUGE divisional game with both teams needing the win having lost to Green Bay already. Minn is coming off a home game whooping of the Raiders while the Bears are coming off a road win whooping of the Redskins. Both teams have top ranked Ds and meh Os with the edge going to the Bears and the Vikings, respectively. I feel like this is going to be a heavy defensive game. Cook should finally be held under 100 yards rushing.

Jacksonville @ Denver(-2.5/3): Jacksonville is coming off a win and some extra rest. Denver is still waiting for its first sack, and its first win. On the flip side, Jacksonville recorded NINE sacks last week. This game looks like it is shaping up to be just like the Jax/Hou game. Low scoring. This game might be a candidate to tease Jax up and the Under. As for props, DJ Chark has a TD in every game this season. If he gets one in Denver, he breaks the franchise record. Even thought its predicted a very low scoring game, I like that he is getting 2.6 to 1 to do so!

Night Game(8:20pm)

Dallas @ New Orleans(+2.5,3): This is one of the hardest games for me. The Cowboys are 3-0 and looking good. But they did it against mediocre competition. The saints are Brees-less but are coming off a great D/ST performance and a game managed win for Bridgewater. Though the Saints have complained about bad calls a decent amount and they are the Third most penalized team this year so far, they do have a favorable crew tonight. "The crew working Sunday's game is led by official Carl Cheffers. Cheffers has been a crew chief since 2008, and, according to Payton, has worked 13 Saints games since 2006. The Saints record over that time with this crew: 12-1. " My gut tells me, if Brees didn't get hurt and the Saints entered this game 3-0 with Brees, the spread would be somewhere between Saints -3 and Saints -6.5. Is Brees going down worth a 6-9 point shift? Probably not. Given Bridgewater has a decent record and he's not the only QB for the Saints. Honestly, how is the over getting so much action?! Both teams have legit Defenses. These two played last year with Brees and it was a heavy under hit. That game Kamara and Ingram got nowhere and Dak and Dallas could throw the ball but they had trouble converting in the Red Zone. If a similar game script happens I could see Dallas having the edge this time given they have an added red zone threat in Jason Witton, and the Saints are without Brees. If you're going to bet this game, definitely shop for your number!


Singles: 8-7-1 [+1.55u]
  • Evan Ingram 100+ Rec Yds (1.6u to win 3u)
  • Miami 1Q +3.5(2.3u to win 2u)
  • Austin Eckler 75+ Rus Yds (2.1u to win 2u)
  • Austin Eckler 125+ Rus Yds (.5u to win 2.13u)
  • Darren Waller 6.5 Reception Over (2.06u to win 2.53u)
  • Tyrell Williams to score a TD (.5u to win 1u)
  • Travis Kelce 82.5 Rec Yds (2.22u to win 2u)
  • New England -7 (2u to win 2u)
  • Buf/NE Will there be a Defensive TD YES (.5u to win 1.8u)
  • Tenn +3.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • Russel Wilson 20.5 Yds Rush OVER (4.44u to win 4u)
  • Will Dissly 3.5 Receptions OVER (4.29u to win 3u)
  • Will Dissly 45.5 Yds OVER (2.22u to win 2u)
  • Chris Carson 65.5 Yds Rush OVER (.56u to win .5u)
  • Russel Wilson to score the first TD (.5u to win 11u)
  • D.J. Chark to Score a TD (0u to win 5.2u) Draftkings FreeBet

Parlays: 0-0 [0u] \**I recently received a 10u free bet on Draftkings NJ. All of these parlays are free bets****
  • Eagles +4, Kansas City ml, Baltimore ml, Rams ml, Patriots ml, Cowboys ml, Bengals +4 (0u to win 32.9u) My early week safe parlay (most scared of cowboys and bengals)
  • Eagles ml, Rams ml, Texans ml, Giants ml, Chiefs ml, Bills 1Q ml, Raiders ml (0u to win 218.1u) My early week gamble parlay (most scared of Giants and Raiders)
  • Titans ml, Rams ml, Pats ml, Dolphins 1Q +3.5, Kelce 82.5 Yds Over, Engram 5.5 Rec Over, Dissly 3.5 Rec Over, Waller 6.5 Rec Over, Chark 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 298.6u) For fun, mix and match with props, favorites, and underdogs.

Teasers: 2-2 [-1u ]
  • I made a teaser but I have to take it into the Ocean tomorrow to place it. I will post it in the comments after I see if there are any scratches.

Thanks for reading. Good Luck to everyone! :D
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]

TSLA options

This is officially my first post to reddit. Long time reader, I also watch YouTube videos and don’t have an account so please forgive if my posting etiquette is off. Use to be a casual trader have a degree in economics with specialty in behavioral economics and minor in psychology. Also initially left college in my sophomore year (2010) to move to California and start a dispensary. I was going to McGill university in Montreal for those of you who don’t know of it(most Americans). FYI I am American myself and I’m Canada they call Harvard americas McGill (not bragging personally I still believe college is a tax on lower and middle class). I visited a friend on spring break and this is a time when a gram of weed would get you a night in jail and a misdemeanor and if you are lucky enough to live in Texas or Tennessee and be black either 1-10 in jail and at minimum they’d take your car or house or whatever expensive enclosed space you owned in which they found it or probably planted it. I could not believe what I was seeing when I went to see my friend (LA) and ultimately never returned from spring break. These were also the days when the laws in California were changing so fast that if you got a dispensary license in about 6 months you could sell the license for 10-100x what you paid for it (2k -7k if you used a lawyer or 500$ if you did all the paperwork yourself). I ended up starting the first 24hr delivery dispensary (legal) in California at that time probably the world. Needless to say it was very successful, after about a year I hired someone else to run the day to day and mostly became a semi professional gambler which many of you would consider yourselves. The difference is I was actually gambling in casinos. This is not a story in which I stupidly lose all my money at a craps table although there were some fear and loathing-esque weekends during this time that are noteworthy themselves. Also to note I decided to move with exactly 2$ to my name and my parents cutting me off because I was leaving college, luckily I also owned (or rather rented for free) a spot on my dear friends couch (who would later end up being an employee). Within 6 months I was worth about 50k within 12 I was making that much every week. This is the part where some of you may become disappointed because of all the interesting preamble that sounded like it was going to end in a crazy story where I used 50 lbs of weed to leverage a massive short on some stock because I had 24hrs to pay off the Armenian mafia or they would give me a Chinese haircut. Despite the fact that that did happen (with some minor liberties taken in the description although ones that make it actually less crazy of a story) it’s not what I am here writing about. I ended up starting my dispensary by winning 48k one night at the native casino near LA can’t remember the name but anyone from SoCal knows what it’s called. I was also a casual trader albeit very successful when I took it seriously. My dad is also a doctor so I essentially invested it all on ARNA before the fda approval of their new weight loss drug (at the time) I think it was called belviq. Anyway it was a killer, went from like 5 bucks to like 25 in a couple of days and I was looking good to start my business. Since then I’ve continued to dabble and did a lot of shorting but hated the risk, was unaware of options trading. After reading a couple articles online I started getting into it, fast forward to me studying economics (In which I didn’t learn much I didn’t already know except how to use programs to analyze massive amounts of data to find out trends that mostly my own intuition was good enough to tell me), but now atleast I’m a “respectable person” in the eyes of my parents and the business world. Ultimately since this is my first post I decided to go big and long with it because I just felt that would be proper and maybe someone would be entertained, and maybe in the future I will divulge the actual crazy shit that happened but wall street bets doesn’t seem like the right thread (?). I just wanted to introduce myself and say, when TSLA hit 964 two days ago how many thousands of wallstreeters and tens of thousands of thousands or hundreds or however many of you redditors that are trading options and know half a twats worth what you’re doing did jizz their pants and buy some puts. Personally I like to gamble only saw it once it had dipped down to 900$ before closing but was trending down already. I figured I’d buy something that had a really short execution period for cheap af at like 895$ and once it dipped to like 865 or something sell but ultimately I knew in my heart as most of u do that it was going to drop to maybe 700 or lower. Didn’t have the liquidity to do what I would have liked but called some of the rich people I know who did and they wanted to jerk me off at 11 am the next morning. The few who missed out were begging for what next. One particular who is a relative of mine and a VP at major software company (think top 3) argued that wouldn’t everyone be buying puts and isn’t that what drove the price up? Wouldn’t it be better to sell options on the tsla shares you own and then if it goes down you made some cash and buy more at the lower price. I’m sure many of you know why that is a much weaker play and has way less upside and at the same time limits your risk way less. When the morning came he and others who didn’t follow thru were dying they missed out and asking me what to do next. I hadn’t looked much but it seemed to be bottoming out at 7 and I assumed put buyers were starting to executing their contracts so I said buy calls near 700 and do it for the shortest period u can find in terms of days. By lunch time it’s at 750$ ofcourse and my suggestion of 10-20 contracts would be betting a nice 80-90k maybe more if u bought the ridiculously short term options. Most of them were able to cash out my relative who is an exec at (insert top software company here) still missed out. He had to go into a meeting and didn’t have enough time to execute and wanted to die as he watched the stock jump 50$ and the imaginary dollars that would have been piling up in his investment account disappearing for the second time in one day for the levels he trades and wanted to buy this would have been around 1m maybe he would have made. After his meeting he messages me “uhh I think I need you to manage part of my portfolio, can you do the options trading for me and manage my short term stocks? I don’t have enough time to watch the market because of meetings etc. and when I see what I’m missing out on I can’t pay attentions during the meetings and it’s fucking up my productivity.” - me : “ well I don’t want to have access to your password etc. and be responsible if some fucked shit happens in your portfolio I don’t want to be blamed. Also if I don’t know how I feel about making you millions and then accepting whatever tip you feel is appropriate. Obviously we could do like a percentage but I’d feel better about starting a separate fund and you can put in whatever you feel comfortable investing and we can see how it goes. I Send the same message to everyone in my thread. Looks like I may have inadvertently started a hedge fund let’s see how it goes. Depending on the funding I will repost with proof.
submitted by 81Gdummy to wallstreetbets_ [link] [comments]

CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 8 (Sunday Games)

CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 8 (Sunday Games)
https://preview.redd.it/6z3pm7zaa3v31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c0b4ba60258e70d1ea5457bcd2111b890f81fa60
Hi all! We have a wonderful Sunday slate ahead, first lets recap TNF.
Singles: 3-0 (+9.78u)
Parlay: 0-2 (-2u)
BBDLS: none
Teasers: none
Notes: This was an amazing little set for us. We were able to go 3-0 and cash in on the Cook to score the first TD @ over +300. I added in those two late parlays with Washington either winning or covering 4.5. Honestly, even after watching the game, I still think plays on WAS were profitable. Before Keenum went down, WAS had a real shot in that game. On to this Sundays games!

Early Games (1pm)

New York @ Detroit (-6/6.5): To start the day, we have a battle of two sub .500 teams. The Giants are coming off a heart breaker (at least to me, haha) They allowed the Cardinals to come in and deliver an upset victory even though the Giants were coming off increased rest and had some key players returning. Detroit's season so far has been surrounded in a cloud of shit. Maybe the first game of the season should have been an indicator of how their season will play out. Look really good coming out of the gate, but overall fail to live up to the start. They will look to halt their recent stumbles against a Giants offence that has 18 turnovers (worst in the league!). On the flip side, the Giants will probably look to use the return of Saquan to exploit the Lions rush D that gives up an average 4.8 ypc (26th) and 140 ypg on ground (28th). Some notable injuries include: Sterling Shepherd is still out for the Giants, and Kerryon Johnson is out for the Lions after injuring his knee in the game last week against the Vikings. Another notable piece missing will be Quandre Diggs. The lions traded him to Seattle this week in exchange for a 2020 fifth-round pick. This game is going to be about the start. My algo is favoring DET by a TD, but DET hasn't beaten anyone yet by more than 3 points and with their recent struggles and poor run D... NY has the potential to get a lead and lean on their run game, I think a pure upset is possible here. Golden Tate is returning to Detroit and has been a steady look for Jones since his insertion into the Lions offense with a steady increase in targets. (week 5 (6) week 6 (9) week 7 (11))

Tampa Bay @ Tennessee (-2.5): Here we have the well rested Bucs coming off of a loss in London and then a bye week. While the Titans have had a small roller coaster over the last few weeks. They were sliding and ultimately replaced Mariota with Ryan Tannehill. The change of QB ignited a boost from the offense (putting up 400 last week) that was previously lacking in a downfield attack. Other than the Bucs missing TE OJ Howard, there aren't any serious, notable injuries. So, Tennessee does have Derrick Henry...but, the Bucs have a The BEST run D, giving up only 2.9 ypc and 68 ypg (1st in both!) However, the Bucs pass D is atrocious and overall the Bucs have given up 30+ points in EVERY game this year except one. Emotionally it feels like the Titans should be riding high. The change of QB sparked the offense, and the Titans D has made THREE goal line stands this year, in the final minute of games, for wins each time. The Titans D is also sporting a very respectable 16 ppg given up to opposing offense. (good for 4th in the league) The Algo has TB -1 here so its a very curious spread. Usually in these low spread coin flip spots I either stay away or play both sides in separate plays. Looking props, I would look to Cory Davis and AJ Brown (WRs for TEN) who with the QB change went for a combined 12 catches for 144 yards off only 15 targets last game...and this game they are facing the TB secondary that is giving up over 300 ypg in the air.

L.A. Chargers @ Chicago (-3.5/-4): Here we have a classic battle of two teams who preseason were favorites to make the playoffs. Now, less than halfway through the season, it looks as if both teams will be looking ahead to next year. The Chargers are coming off a really tough loss to the Titans last week where it looked like the Chargers scored 3 times to win the game, but none of the attempts ended up counting. The Bears are coming off a blowout loss to the Saints (who were somehow underdogs even though they have been dominant) The Bears offense just doesn't have it. Mitch looks great when the opposing D drops into prevent and gives him time to find open guys...but other than that, he is really struggling. First let's look at notable injuries:
LAC: Melvin Ingram (hamstring) is expected to return after missing the last three games and (LT) Russell Okung (pulmonary embolism) will make his season debut after experiencing major health issues during the off season.
CHI: Chicago CB Sherrick McManis (concussion) likely will miss the game after being injured against the Saints.
Alright, so if Mitch is going to get back on track and show his owners he deserves to stay on this team, the Chargers D is a good spot for him to do it. The Charges D is near the bottom in almost everything [Comp % (32nd), QBR (28th), YPA (29th)]. They only give up 216 ypg in the air., but that's only vs 185 attempts (3rd fewest in the league). On the other side, the Bears D is still pretty good in every category. They only falter in one, Completion Percentage (69%) which is 27th in the league.
In props we are looking at both RBs for this game. Last week Eckler went: 7 rec, 118 yds and a TD and is tied for 3rd most receptions in the NFL! To add to that, the Bears have given up the 5th most yards to receiving backs. On the other side we have Cohen who gets a ton of opportunity for receptions.
Note: Sooo, an interesting stat I came across: Betting the Chargers on the road vs. a team with a better win, would have you sitting at % 22-4 ATS, and if you had teased them you would be 26-0. This is the Chargers over the last 5 years

Seattle @ Atlanta (+7): Soo, it is currently 2:30 pm on Saturday and as I am writing this, most of the online books here in NJ took this game down. The line was originally floating around 3.5/4, now it is only available at 7 on two sites. I am assuming this is because ATL activated their QB3 indicating Ryan has a great chance of being inactive. In injury news: "
The Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant will miss his third straight game with a toe injury. Rookie Kendall Sheffield will get the start in Trufant’s place. The Falcons will also be without guard James Carpenter (knee) and running back Ito Smith, who is in concussion protocol.
For Seattle, defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson (oblique) and safety Delano Hill (elbow) have been declared out. The problem for the Seahawks is that they have six players listed as questionable, including recent acquire, Quandre Diggs.
Lets start with the obvious, the Falcons D. Atlanta run D is actually pretty good, holding opposing RBs to under 4 ypc and 70 ypg. But, their secondary is trash, bottom of the league in almost everything: QBR 31st, ypg 28th, comp % 29th. The Seattle D is not the defense of old. They average giving up 25 ppg and 360 ypg. However, they are top 10 in takeaways this year with 12 and the ATL offense has 12 turnovers already. On the other side, even with losing to Baltimore last week, SEA O ranks in the top 10 in: qbr 2nd, ypg 10th, comp % 8th, and ypa. Going against that ATL D, the edge definitely sits with SEA. In props, the look is on Austin Hooper. He has had minimum 4 receptions per game, is averaging over 7, and should get an increase in his looks with ATL trading away their WR2 in Sanu.

Denver @ Indianapolis (-4.5/-5): This is one of the most curious lines to me. The algo has the Colts at only -4. Public perception should have the colts at -7/7.5. Yet the line opened at 5, briefly moved up to 5.5 and has been slowly falling to 4.5. I feel like the Colts should rock this game, but the lines are red flagging me otherwise. Lets jump into the numbers. Other than Carl Davis, there are no real injuries to note. In terms of sacks, Brissett has been sacked only 7 times this year, while Flacco has been sacked a whopping 23 times! Even with the recent loss to the Chiefs, the Bronco's D is pretty stout, giving up only the 5th best passer rating and they are 3rd in pass ypg and 3rd in ypa giving up less than 200 pass ypg. The Indy D ranks 19th in rush yards allowed per game, 26th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric and 28th and 30th in tackling and run defense respectively according to Pro Football Focus. But, the Bronco's offense sucks ranking 29th in ppg and 25th in ypg. Likely to give them less of an offensive threat is the trade of Emanuel Sanders to the 49ers. If I am going props in this game it would have to be Lindsey(Indy rush D is not that good) or Sutton (he is already the number 1, and the number 2 was traded away this week)
Every time I review this game, the logic tells me that Indy should win and keep the train rolling. But something inside keeps screaming take Denver. Probably nothing, but Im gonna note it :P

NY Jets @ Jacksonville (-6/-6.5/-7): A lot of lines available for this one, which is funny to me...as you'll see, I and my algo both favor the Jets. The Jets are coming off a sha-lacking vs. the Patriots where they were completely shut down. Jacksonville is coming off a 10 point win, but the game was much closer than the score shows with Jacksonville trailing into the 4th where they scored 18 points. Darnold had an issue with a toe, but it looks as if he as go. Other than that, there are 3 linebackers out for Jacksonville, and 1 possibly for NY. The Jets get to see the return of TE Herndon. As we all know, the Jax offense starts with their run game which is pretty good, gaining 5.1 ypc (3rd), and 140 ypg (5th). But, the strength of the Jets defense is their run D. They held pats to 2.2 ypc, and overall they only give up 3.3 ypc (2nd) and 92 ypg (11th) The Jets offense hasn't done much, but they have only started Darnold in 2 games (not including the Pats game because their D seems to be an outlier) and he is 1-1 and could quite easily be 2-0 in those games (losing the first one to the Bills comeback in week 1) It will be facing a Jax D that is pretty good. Their pass rush has a 30% pressure rate (6th), 21 sacks (4th), and a 9.2% knockdown rate (3rd). The algo has Jax @ -9/10 here. But does anyone really feel that confident laying a TD with Jax right now? Based upon the number match ups, this looks like it is going to be a grind of a game with both teams struggling for points. In those predicted under type games, I almost always favor the large amount of points. This is a game that deserves some underdog action.

Philadelphia @ Buffalo (-2): The Eagles are coming off a big divisional loss to the Cowboys on Prime Time, while Buffalo is coming off a win, but a win they had to fight back to get. They were expected to easily handle the Dolphins last week but were taken by surprise as Miami took an early lead. They fought back to take the lead and held on by returning an onside kick for a TD. As usual, lets start with the injury report
For the Eagles, everyone here is OUT:
  • Nigel Bradham (ankle, illness)
  • WR DeSean Jackson (abdomen)
  • OL Tim Jernigan (foot)
  • OL Jason Peters (knee)
  • RB Darren Sproles (quad)
  • CB Avonte Maddox (concussion)
The Bills have a list of questionables, but everyone seems to be a go.
Lets start with Philly. This is their fourth road game in five weeks and they have allowed an average of 31.5 ppg in all 4 road games. Their defense has given up 24 or more points in 6 of 7 games this year and the only game they didn't give up at least 24...was vs. the Jets with Luke Falk at QB. In all 4 of their losses they have had a turnover. Clean games have not been easy for them. They will be facing a Buffalo D that is top in the league. They only give up 15 ppg (3rd) under 300 ypg (3rd) and their pass d is top 5 in ypg, passer rating, completion % and ypa. Combine that with the NFL's seventh-ranked rushing attack (135.8 ypg) with Frank Gore gaining 4.5 ypc. However, Philly is known to stack the box and stop the run. They were gashed last week, but overall only give up 90 ypg on the ground so far. With Philly likely to stack the box and force Buffalo to throw, I will be looking at Brown and Beasly for props, going against a Philly secondary that is laughable. My only concern in this game is my algo has BUF -8.5 and the Vegas spread is WAYYY off from that. This may have me avoiding a side in singles when i would normally feel Buffalo here.

Cincinatti @ LA Rams (-11.5/-12/-12.5): Curious that the spreads are all over the place. However, 11-13 are really dead numbers so not much info to be gained from the multiple spreads. Cincinati looks worse than MIA. They looked decent for 3 quarters last week, but just couldn't hold it together. The Rams took the opportunity to play the Atlanta D and easily hopped back on the win train. This game will be taking place in London. The Bengals arrived on Friday and the Rams spent the week in ATL after last weeks game, and flew to London on Thursday night. No real injuries that need to be talked about. There are a few players out for both sides but nothing should effect the game much. So the Rams D had 5 sacks last week and is 4th in the league in QB pressure. Cincy has already been sacked 24 times this year. The add on of Jaylen Ramsey saw immediate impact as he had 4 tackles and a forced fumble in his first game with the Rams. The Cincy D has allowed an average 102 QBR and 8.4 ypa. While the Rams offense scores 27 ppg (7th) and gains 372 ypg (12th). Another interesting stat: Cincinnati's minus-9 turnover differential is the third-worst in the NFL. The algo only has LA as -9.5/-10.5 so i will probably avoid spreads in this game. For an interesting prop look, check out Darrel Henderson. The RB2 is out and in a gamescript where the Rams are leading by more than a score, they might look to rest Gurley for more difficult situations. This may lead to increased looks for Henderson.

Arizona @ New Orleans (-12/-12.5): Whoa! Big movement and big news. This line opened at 7.5 and has now moved all the way up to 12.5 in most books. This is in connection with the announcement that Brees will be returning this Sunday to lead his team into the bye week. 1st question... why? Bridgewater is 5-0 in his absence. They are facing what should be one of their easier opponents, and they head into a bye next week. Maybe they want Brees to see some game time speed, given it should be one of their easier games. This way he doesn't come out cold in two weeks... I dont know. Either way, it seems like a curious change to make. The Saints have Smith, Cook and Robinson out. While the Cardinals Allen and Foster with a whole list of questionable.
The Saints D is amazing so far. Currently they haven't allowed more than 260 total yards in 4 straight games and they are 34% on 3rd down, and have 20 sacks (5th). In the first four games, Arizona allowed 20 sacks (all losses or tie) but in the last 3 (all wins) Murray has only been sacked a total of 3 times. My Algo had this only as NO -4.5. Now that Brees is in and the line has moved so much, this game may be an avoid game. In props, I may look to Murray's rush yards. He should be pressured a ton in this game, and when he is pressured he likes to move.

Afternoon Games

Oakland @ Houston (-6.5): Oakland is on their 5th straight road game and coming off a loss at GB. They actually had a chance in that game. Carr fumbled in the end zone and it caused a 14 point swing that took away any momentum Oakland had. The OAK D has given up 21 points in 5 straight games and the pass rush has only a 14 % pressure rate (32nd), a 19 % blitz rate (4th lowest) and 10 sacks (28th). If they dont get to the QB, it might be all Houston as Watson is 7-0 in games when he doesn't get sacked and he is sporting 8.3 ypa through the air this year. Along side him is a pretty solid run game lead by Carlos Hyde gaining an average 66 ypg, 4.2 ypc. With the Texans rush offense as a whole gaining 4.9 ypc (5th) and 134 ypg (8th). The Algo has this as Hou -9.5 so this actually makes me suspicious of the spread. Any bets in this game will come down to the start/sit of Josh Jacobs. Without the threat of him in the backfield, the Texans D will be able to drop extra men into coverage, but if he plays, I would look for a closer game that leans towards a shootout.

Carolina @ San Francisco (-4.5/-5/-5.5): These next three are my most anticipated games of the slate. This game features the undefeated 49ers hosting the streaking Panthers. For Carolina, no notable injuries for this week. For the 49ers its the same as before. (FB) Kyle Juszczyk (knee), (OT) Mike McGlinchey (knee), and (OT) Joe Staley are all still out. So to start with we see Garoppolo is 5-0 with eight touchdowns and three interceptions in five home starts with San Francisco. They just added Emanuel Sanders to the roster which should ultimately boost their already good 7.9 ypa on offense. Garoppolo will be going against the Panthers’ secondary that was outstanding early in the season but has surrendered more than 350 yards in consecutive games. The SF rush D that has only allowed 4.1ypc (12th) and 90 ypg (7th) will have its hands full this week going up against Christian McCaffrey who has 923 yards rushing so far. An interesting stat that has me leaning Carolina in this one: CAR blitzes the fewest of any team in the league...YET, they lead the NFL in sacks. I will be shopping my line here and lean with the dog.

Cleveland @ New England (-10/-10.5/-11): This is going to be a fun match up to watch. But it doesn't appear it will be a good game. There are no real injuries to note and you could make a case for CLE by saying they are coming off a bye and are desperate for a win vs. a NE team that is coming off a short week. But with my model, that doesn't appear to be the case. The Cleveland offense averages 231 ypg (16th) and 7.5 ypa (15th) but has 15 dropped passes (3rd )and 11 ints (32nd). They have 1 in every game... Also, Baker has turned the ball over 12 times this year (tied for the most in the NFL) going against a NE D that has 18 INTs right now. This looks like a game where the Patriots will utilize their mutli-headed run game as Cleveland has been gashed for 154.0 yard per game on the ground. The one shining light for the browns D is they have 19 sacks. However, 9 of those sacks have come from Myles Garret. Also, here is a video I came across where it is detailed how to disrupt the play of Baker Mayfield. I feel like if I can find this, so can the Patriots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4qlJE4DZsc

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay @ Kansas City(+4.5/+5): This one has the biggest line movement of the slate. Originally, it opened KC -4, since the Mahomes injury, it has moved to what it is now. The only other notable injury is DeVante Adams will still be out for GB. Starting for KC should be Matt Moore, who replaced PM during the Denver game. He did fairly well, coming in and going 10-19 117 yds, 1TD and a 90 QBR. KC last played on Thursday, so they had a few extra days to prepare for this one. I feel like with Matt Moore starting at QB, a lot of KC offensive stats are devalued. KC defense has 20 sacks (5th) and will be facing and offensive line in GB that has only give up 12 sacks. The packers rank 11th in offense but it has mostly been due to the passing game. They have failed to get more than 80 yards rushing in 4 of 7. They may look to turn that around this week against a poor KC run defense that gives up 5 ypc (30th) and 150 ypg (29th). I dont expect Matt Moore to have too difficult of a time. He still has a lot of star power on the offensive side of the ball and they will be facing a Green Bay defense that ranks 26th in total defense and has given up 420 or more total yards three times. However, the team is ninth in scoring defense with 13 takeaways. My algo had GB -2.5, before the PM adjustments. I dont think Moore deserves the 8-9 points Vegas is adjusting for, but even field goad pushes GB to -5.5. Overall for props the model is predicting both of GBs running backs to have increased opportunities on the ground and in the air.

Singles 46-53-2 (+3.03u)
  • NYG +6.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • NYG ml (1u to win 2.5u)
  • Golden Tate 75+ Rec Yards (2u to win 2.3u)
  • Saquon 75+ Rush Yards (1u to win 1u)
  • Saquon 105.5+ Rush and Rec Yards (0u to win 3u)
  • Corey Davis 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 2u)
  • A.J. Brown 2.5 Rec Over (0u to win 1.3u)
  • Phillip Lindsey 53.5 Rush Yards Over (0u to win 1u)
  • Phillip Lindsey to Score TD (0u to win 1.2u)
  • Chargers ml (1u to win 1.63u)
  • Chargers +3.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • Eckler 5.5 Rec Over (0u to win 1.2u)
  • Eckler 45.5 Rec Yards Over (0u to win 2u)
  • Hooper 58.5 Rec Yards Over (2.3u to win 2u)
  • NYJ +7 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • NYJ ml (1u to win 2.7u)
  • Gardener Minshew 239.5 Pass yards Under (0u to win 1u)
  • New England -10.05 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Kenny stills 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 2u)
  • Aaron Jones 64.5 Rush Yards Over(0u to win 1u)
  • Aaron Jones 13.5 Rush Attempts (0u to win 2u)
  • Jamal Williams 21.5 Rec Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)

Parlays: 1-3 (+43.42u)
  • Titans ml, Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml (1u to win 1.86u)
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, Bills ml (1u to win 2u)
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, Den +5.5 (1u to win 2.2u)
  • Jets +7, LAC +3.5, NYG +3.5, CAR +4.5, NE -8.5 (2.5u to win 72.2u) This has "parlay insurance" A promo on DK wherein if 4 out of 5 legs hit, I get a refund on my bet.
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, GB ml, Jets +7, NYG +6, LAC +3.5 (0u to win 117.7u)
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-6 (-5.19u)
  • Ten ml, NYG ml, DEN ml, LAC ml, NYJ +7, Buf ml, NO ml, Sea ml, Car +4.5, NE ml, GB ml, Mia ml (0u to win 5438.7u)
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, GB ml, Jets +7, NYG +6, LAC +3.5, SEA ml, Buf ml, Ten ml, Car +5.5 (0u to win 231.1u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-2 (-1u)
  • I put this in at the Ocean Casino, I will post in the comments if by some miracle all the 1 and 4 pm games hit. (0.5u to win 10000u)
Teasers: 5-11 (-11.18u)
  • I am putting in a teaser card at the Ocean when I head over there before the games today. I will post picks in the comments after I see the lines and place the bet.
Futures
  • NE, GB, CLE, NYG all to win their Division (0u to win 257.8u) This is a Free bet (last one for DK, it was close to expiring) I like CLE's schedule after the pats game. NYG..I mean cmon. Everyones getting healthy, and the rest of the division hasn't been dominant enough to count them out. Should be a fun sweat!
Notes for bets: So this week I drove to PA (I live in South Jersey) and I made new accounts on some websites in PA. Because of this I now have 45u in Free Bets that need to be used in the next 30 days. I will probably sprinkle them into my singles and take a 10u shot here or there on a parlay.

Thanks for reading. Good luck to all!!
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Nearer, My God, to Thee - André Rieu (live in ... - YouTube

I decided to finally take a remote back-road "trick route" I'd always wanted to try bypassing Tonopah on the way up from Las Vegas to Reno, Nevada. Wow, what... In the second leg of our BBQ Road Trip - brought to you by Jack Daniel's - host Tom Wright travels across the Atlantic to Tennessee, the heartland of barbecu... The bunker gets crazier as the video goes on!SUBSCRIBE OR YOU'LL HAVE BAD LUCKFor more info on this bunker check out their site here: http://www.survivalcond... Take a short trip with me to Dawson City, Canada. Have a look at how the "average, not for TV" miner gets gold. No staged arguments, breakdowns, or deadlines... Check out all the places seen in this video: https://www.touropia.com/best-places-to-visit-in-usa/Comprised of 50 states, the USA occupies an area that’s onl... If you are interested in a modded account for PC contact Sewsh on discord Sewsh#3006Twitch https://www.twitch.tv/uversuspro (mostly I stream there)Instagra... Check out all the places seen in this video: https://www.touropia.com/best-places-to-visit-in-florida/When most people think of Florida, they think of sunshi... Antarctica is one of the most mysterious places on Earth. ☃️ It’s the coldest location ever discovered, with an average temperature of -58ºF and an occasiona... André Rieu, over 500 brass players & the Johann Strauss Orchestra performing Nearer, my God, to Thee live in Amsterdam. Taken from the DVD "André Rieu Gala-L... Today we meet Dee, who is living in her car on $800 a month. She tried renting an apartment but found it impossible. After paying rent, she had so little mon...

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