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The real DD on SLV, the worlds biggest short squeeze is possible and we can make history
Update 2/4 - someone went ahead and spelled out the mechanics of the squeeze quite well and I would like to give their post attention https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lc8vgo/slv_is_not_going_to_get_squeezedslv_is_the_trojan/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Update 2/2 - I am able to comment again. I messaged several mods on Reddit and the mod account on Twitter. None of them responded but it appears I am able to comment again so I assume one of them lifted my ban Update 2/1 - I have been banned from posting on WSB. I guess they aren’t yet deleting my post here given the media attention. If this was a rogue mod I’d appreciate being restored the ability to post on WSB. I’m open to talking to any mods Update 1/31 - there have been tons of 'what to buy' questions so I added a clarity post, hope it helps. It's also getting downvoted to hell because its not about GME so that's discouraging. The speed at which the downvotes flew in makes me think someone made bots to crush new posts related to SLV (or maybe anything not GME). It makes no sense for this post to have 93% upvotes and my new one to have 28%. I have not sold my GME to buy SLV. I had a small pre-existing position in leaps I bought months ago. Created an official Twitter handle not sure if I’ll use it, but didn’t want anyone to impersonate me on there Here is the longer DD for the short squeeze case for SLV, a follow-up from my shorter post a few hours ago. Note that I talk in first person as this is something I’m going to do. Everyone is free to do as they individually please and copy my trade if they’d like to. I think it’s absurd that forces at be think this forum is manipulating by posting publicly but that’s where we are at right now. First things first, I'm not doing this until the GME rise is done. I am long GME but am going long SLV immediately after. Update 1/29: due to the manipulation and collusion of citadel, hedge funds, and brokers to change the rules and rig the game in their favor. Who likely knew ahead of time and bought puts right before and calls at the bottom, GME is too important to abandon still. SLV is still my next play but GME needs to go to $1000 and these people need to go to jail. If you just want to know what to buy skip to the end I present 2 investment DDs in this post, the short squeeze and the fundamentals. If you want to see what to buy The short squeeze: Buy SLV shares and SLV call options to force physical delivery of silver to the SLV vaults. Also buy physical silver bullion. The best possible thing would be to take physical delivery in the futures market if you have access to do so. The silver futures market has oscillated between having roughly 100-1 and 500-1 ratio of paper traded silver to physical silver, but lets call it 250-1 for now. This means that for every 250 ounces in open interest in the futures market, only 1 actually gets delivered. Most traders would rather settle with cash rather than take delivery of thousands of ounces of silver and have to figure out to store and transport it in the future. The people naked shorting silver via the futures markets are a couple of large banks and making them pay dearly for their over leveraged naked shorts would be incredible. It's not Melvin capital on the other side of this trade, its JP Morgan. Time to get some payback for the bailouts and manipulation they've done for decades (look up silver manipulation fines that JPM has paid over the years). The way the squeeze could occur is by forcing a much higher percentage of the futures contracts to actually deliver physical silver. There is very little silver in the COMEX vaults or available to actually be use to deliver, and if they have to start buying en masse on the open market they will drive the price massively higher. There is no way to magically create more physical silver in the world that is ready to be delivered. With a stock you can eventually just issue more shares if the price rises too much, but this simply isn't the case here. The futures market is kind of the wild west of the financial world. Real commodities are being traded, and if you are short, you literally have to deliver thousands of ounces of silver per contract if the holder on the other side demands it. If you remember oil going negative back in May, that was possible because futures are allowed to trade to their true value. They aren't halted and that's what will make this so fun when the true squeeze happens. Edit for more detail: let’s say there’s one futures seller who gets unlucky and gets the buyer who actually wants to take delivery. He doesn’t have the silver and realizes it’s all of a sudden damn difficult to find some physical silver. He throws up his hands and just goes long a matching number of futures contracts and will demand actual delivery on those. Problem solved because he has now matched the demanding buyer with a new seller. The issue is that the new seller has the same issue and does the exact same thing. This is how the cascade effect of a meltup occurs. All the naked shorts trying to offload their position to someone who actually has some silver. My goal is to ensure that I have the silver and won’t sell to them until silver is at a far higher price due to the desperation. The silver market is much larger than GME in terms of notional value, but there is very little physical silver actually readily available (think about the difference between total shares and the shares in the active float for a stock), and the paper silver trading hands in the futures market is hundreds of times larger than what is available. Thus when they are forced to actually deliver physical silver it will create a massive short squeeze where an absurd amount of silver will be sought after (to fulfill their contractually obligated delivery) with very little available to actually buy. They are naked shorting silver and will have to cover all at once and the float as a percentage of the total silver stock globally is truly miniscule. The fundamentals: The current gold to silver ratio is 73-1. Meaning the price of gold per ounce is 73 times the price of silver. Naturally occurring silver is only 18.75 times as common as gold, so this ratio of 73-1 is quite high. Until the early 20th century, silver prices were pegged at a 15-1 ratio to gold in the US because this ratio was relatively known even then. In terms of current production, the ratio is even lower at 8-1. Meaning the world is only producing 8 ounces of silver for each newly produced ounce of gold. Global industry has been able to get away with producing so little new silver for so long because governments have dumped silver on the market for 80 years, but now their silver vaults are empty. At the end of WW2 government vaults globally contained 10 billion ounces of silver, but as we moved to fiat currency and away from precious metal backed currencies, the amount held by governments has decreased to only 0.24 billion ounces as they dumped their supply into the market. But this dumping is done now as their remaining supply is basically nil. This 0.24 billion ounces represents only 8% of the total supply of only 3 billion ounces stored as investment globally. This means that 92% of that gold is held privately by institutions and by millions of boomer gold and silver bugs who have been sitting on meager gains for decades. These boomers aren't going to sell no matter what because they see their silver cache as part of their doomsday prepper supplies. It's locked away in bunkers they built 500 miles from their house. Also, with silver at $23 an ounce currently, this means all of the worlds investment grade silver only has a total market cap of $70 billion. For comparison the investment grade gold in the world is worth roughly $6 trillion. This is because most of the silver produced each year actually gets used, as I have mentioned. $70 billion sounds like a lot, but we don’t have to buy all that much for the price to go up a lot. **If the squeeze happens, it would be like 40 years worth of their gains in 4 months ** The reason that only 8 ounces of silver are produced for every 1 ounce of gold in today's world is because there aren't really any good naturally occurring silver deposits left in the world. Silver is more common than gold in the earth's crust, but it is spread very thin. Thus nearly every ounce of silver produces is actually a byproduct of mining for other metals such as gold or copper. This means that even as the silver price skyrockets, it wont be easy to increase the supply of silver being produced. Even if new mines were to be constructed, it could take years to come online. Finally, most of this newly created silver supply each year is used for productive purposes rather than kept for investment. It is used in electronics, solar panels, and jewelry for the most part. This demand wont go away if the silver price rises, so the short sellers will be trying to get their hands on a very small slice of newly minted silver. The solar market is also growing quickly and political pressure to increase solar and electric vehicles could provide more industrial demand. The other part of the story is the faster moving piece and that is the inflation and currency debasement fear portion. The government and the fed are printing money like crazy debasing the value of the dollar, so investors look for real assets like precious metals to hide out in, driving demand for silver. The $1.9 trillion stimulus passing in a month or two could be a good catalyst. All this money combined with the reopening of the economy could cause some solid inflation to occur, and once inflation starts it often feeds on itself. What to buy: Edit 2/24: I now advocate buying PSLV for shares, physical metal if the premiums come back down, and if you want options then SLV is still ok for that. I will be putting 50% directly into SLV shares, and 50% into the $35 strike SLV calls expiring 4/16. This way the SLV purchase creates a groundswell into silver immediately that then rockets through a gamma squeeze as SLV approaches $35. Price target of $75 for SLV by end of April if the short squeeze happens. Edit: for the part of your purchases going into shares, some people recommend PSLV because they think SLV might start lying about having the silver in their vault. Or that the custodian will be double counting, ie claiming that the same silver belongs to multiple people (banking on the fact that people wont all try to get their silver at once). So if you buy SLV shares and calls, that's great. But I think it could be prudent for us to buy options in SLV (no options on PSLV) and shares in PSLV. It all depends on how paranoid you want to be. There is a lot of paranoia in the precious metals world. Alternate options: - buying physical silver; this also works but you pay a premium to buy and sell so its less efficient and you take fewer silver ounces off of the market because of the premium you pay - going long futures for February or March; if you are a rich bastard and can actually take physical delivery of 1000s of ounces of silver by all means do so. But if you simply settle for cash you are actually part of the problem. We need actual physical delivery, which is what SLV demands and is why SLV is the way to go unless you are going to take delivery - miners; I don’t recommend buying miners as part of this trade. Miners will absolutely go up if SLV goes up, but buying them doesn't create the squeeze in the actual silver market. Furthermore, most silver miners only derive 30-50% of their revenue from silver anyways, so eventually SLV will outperform them as it gets high enough (and each marginal SLV dollar only increases miner profits by a smaller and smaller percentage) Details on SLV physical settlement: When SLV issues shares, the custodian is forced to true up their vaults with the proportional amount of silver daily. From the SLV prospectus: "An investment in Shares is: Backed by silver held by the Custodian on behalf of the Trust. The Shares are backed by the assets of the Trust. The Trustee’s arrangements with the Custodian contemplate that at the end of each business day there can be in the Trust account maintained by the Custodian no more than 1,100 ounces of silver in an unallocated form. The bulk of the Trust’s silver holdings is represented by physical silver, identified on the Custodian’s or, if applicable, sub-custodian's, books in allocated and unallocated accounts on behalf of the Trust and is held by the Custodian in London, New York and other locations that may be authorized in the future." Join me brothers. Lets take silver to the moon and take on the biggest and baddest manipulators in the world. Please post rocket emojis in the comments as desired. Disclaimer: do your own research, make your own decisions, everything here is a guess and hypothetical and nothing is guaranteed, not a financial advisor, I have ADHD and maybe other things too. Bear case: silver does tend to sell off if the broader market plunges so it’s not immune to broad market sell off. It’s also the most manipulated market in the world so we are facing some tough competition on the short side
(GME DD) One DD to rule them. One DD to find them. One DD to to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.
Ok retards listen up. Been seeing lots of cucks writing small DD pieces of bullish or bearish shit. You cucks need to read this cos this is the whole fucking thing.
this is also basically my magnum fucking opus so upvote retards. Dont give me awards, legit go buy a powerup membership for a year. Cant tell you to buy shares because we gonna get closed down by SEC somehow. im also not some fininacial advisor or whatever just read this and make your own conclusions degenerates. Im not fucking liable lmao but i am balls deep 125 shares @ 19 average now, its literally all I have on this earth. TLDR: GME DD sumarized, Margin wont affect longs the same way as shorts right now. Dont buy shares on margin though and get ready to supply collateral regardless. Short interest is up and some smart retards are on our side. Read the post to raise your IQ from 8 to 9 though. 🐻 🌈s mega fuk and even posting high level bear shit to scare us. Compulsory 7 rockets so you autists dont start having a seizure or something: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Basically been seeing posts about "blah blah margin this, short interest this, WS to clever blah". Going to split this post into distinct sections but im no english degree cuck so dont expect any bear bloomberg level shit or something
1. GME is a fucking steal regardless of squeeze. Buy now or be left on a dying planet while we head to alpha fucking centauri.
So basically everyone here knows about Ryan cohen and his horsemen of the apocalypse coming to steal melvins lunch money. This man bought apple stock in 2017. Hes fucking rich. Hes also an eccommerce wizard, taking CHEWY from a measly 100k co-founded company to a $4 Billion company in 2017 at which point he sold it to petsmart or something. Its now valued at $40 Billion, granted anything eccommerce now gets money thrown at it like a stripper in a high flying strip club or some shit idk im a virgin so dont listen to me, so it may well be a bubble. Regardless the thing grows its revenue like bacteria doing binary fission on agar jelly 🚀🚀🚀🚀. THEY SELL FUCKING PET FOOD. the market for that is like what? $1?. Gaming is going to the moon and is basically recession proof because of how cheap game is compared to other things for how much you get out of it. Any bears saying that Gamestop cant compete with digital or with amazon. Ryan cohen already slapped amazons head in with a no name brand. Hell fucking do it again. About digital everyone here already knows, microsoft deal, Ryan cohen also mentioned the possibility of having "Digital game exchanging" or something, image below. Online trade ins. It says online.🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 He also mentions streaming, digital content etc and aside from all the digital stuff wants GME to move to a community centric structure where big stores operate with VR centres, Internet cafe, table games like Dungeons and dragons and 40k (rapidly growing somehow will boom post covid) and as we now might know due to this post: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kypuyb/gme_dd_buildapc_kiosks_coming/ BUILD YOUR OWN PC KIOSKS. This is the literal smell of money. Go to your Gamestop to build your PC with your kid? Gamestop is already the goto place wher your parents go to get you your latest digital fix so now they can go build PC's and it cant go tits up? Now for some pussy boomer talk (aka fundametals or something). The expected Q3 EPS was -0.84$ or something close to that. The actual loss was -0.53$ but boomzoids only talked about the revenue drop. No shit sherlock its closing all its dead weight stores. In the holiday report I will talk about a bit more below, 11% of stores were closed and revenue dropped only 3%. Comparitive store sales increased nearly 5%. They cant get enough consoles to sell so expect the momentum to carry on for the whole year I expect. Eccommerce is up 300% over holidays. In Q3 they reported 800% to date. In 2020 Gamestops eccomerce went up 24x. YES YOU READ THAT RIGHT. Online sales now account for ~33% of Gamestops sales now. This is literally gold dust for ryan cohen. We are still trading at 0.38 P/S at this price. The average P/S for the SP500 is 2.753. Massive upside on these two numbers alone. Burry got in this for the MOASS and the intrinsic value. At the time intrinsic value was like $22 and this will pump up as RC takes it to new heights. GME in Q3 somehow halved the expected loss. Big Bad Boomer sherman somehow didnt fuck it up that bad by saying "omnichannel" at the speed of light. Yes the revenue dropped 30% but thats covid for you. As the PC kiosk post above shows GME now sells small items basically so fast they have to have fake stock lmao. The new console cycle always spikes the share price sky high too, as youll see in a crayon drawing later. The potential revenue that this console cycle brings in could be huge. Biggest ever is potentially a true statement and Gamestop sells every fucker they get. Combine the fact that they share game pass ( a massive hit) revenue from the xboxes they sell, something no other retailer has, revenue could be sky high. Now I know you autists are starting to develop short term dyslexia or something but keep reading. This could be the most important piece of shit you read in your life. How do you think I feel? My brains overheating just trying to write coherent sentences. Holdiay report was a bear trap imo, saw people saying the decrease in revenue was bearish blah blah blah. Lies. Comparitve store sales rose 5% and thats with some towns having like 4 gamestops. When the leases dont get renewed and these stores get liquidated (Also in Ryan cohens letter) they can just get this influx of cash and pay down debt and invest in logistics and marketing and new growth. Gamestop realistically needs like 1/2 the stores they have now and just need to improve efficiency. https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/349890 this article the messiah himself wrote. In it he states:
At Chewy, we had maniacal discipline when it came to how we spent money. The company-wide culture of frugality came from his example. Free cash flow was our unwavering governor of growth. We grew Chewy from $200 million in sales in 2013 to $3.5 billion in 2018 while spending only $130 million in capital, all of which went into opening distribution centers across the country and acquiring new customers.
Maniacal. Thats all I need to say. The guy is going to get to mars before papa musk and he wont even break a sweat. When FCF starts to catch up to WS expectations every analyst who donwgraded them is gonna get ditched and upgrades will start to happen. So in the heading i said its a steal. That implies some future higher price target right? Well here is my guess for a conservative price target based on the information above and also some more I probably forgot cos im a retard. The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)
The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)
This alone means if for not inflation adjusted terms we reached 9.8Bn or whatever the crayon chart says we should reach: 9.8/2.48 = ~3.95 3.95 * $35.5 = ~$140. The share price now to reach old mkt cap is $140 fucking dollars. Thats a 4 bagger from now. It gets better. from statista :
Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in recent years, a 2.24 percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection.
If we take 2.24% inflation, the this share price target in todays money means we should reach $182 because of $140 * 1.0224^12, = $182 in adjusted. Thats more than a 5 bagger. basically we could see $10 GME price from short manipulation and buying more is basically a lottery ticket! I really dont understand the bear thesis. The only bear thesis ( short term this one) was that margin would affect longs more but I looked at it on ortex and its basically bullshit. Buy shares with cash though dont use margin. Own your piece of GME dont borrow it. Bears just spout "DigITaL" or "BlOCKbuSTER" so much Ryan tweeted a shit emoji at them. All the bears think theyre clever. What the fuck makes those cucks special? How are they different now than the ones from $2, or $4, or $10. Bears are betting against: Ryan fucking cohen, buisness legend CHEWY from 100k investment, now 40 billion Michael burry, Investing legend, predicted the housing crisis and is in GME since april u/DeepFuckingValue , the new WSB god chad, now basically a whale Reggie Fils-Aimé, gaming and buisness legend, former COO of nintendo Senvest, a mega fund thats actively managed Norweigan sovereign wealth fund Fidelity, Vanguard and blackrock own this shit and are never selling they literally dont give a shit All of WSB has now formed a shield wall against the bears Microsoft gave GME highly discounted azure deals and free office use for all employees and a revenue sharing agreement. Bears are stupid if they think MSFT didnt vet GME. Some valid bear thesis left now (the only ones left) -- Ryan Cohen dies.
2. Now some analysis on the short squeeze and some technical data on puts and calls and ortex data.
Ok everyone on here and their cat, dog, bedbugs and wifes boyfriend knows about the squeeze. Jimmy chill aka cramer even talking about it. Gamestop is literally the most shorted stock of all time and space. The squeeze makes every autist salivate because its basically free money while cucking big money out of like what 1% of their fund. Although I know all you cucks hate shares, and hate holding, if the squeeze doesnt happen selling is probably the most retarded thing anyone could do. Its literally buy high sell low and you fucking disgust me. STONK ONLY GOES UP. This squeeze is so monumental that its been sucking sharks in like fresh blood. Most of the funds where shorting this from 30-15 dollars before this year so they didnt really care. It all changed with 2 people. u/DeepFuckingValue and Dr. Michael Burry. These guys are as OG as it gets with GME. I think u/DeepFuckingValue may have even sniffed this trade out before the legend himself. Since then funds will have churned this through their rules and started jumping on this train. Ive been in since $13 with 125 shares. If I had more money Id be buying but im just some stupid student ok. Im merely a medium for this money made information. The stats for this stock now short wise are, from ortex: Concrete short interest as of 31 December 2020: 71 Million. Estimated short interest, January 11th data: (This isnt predicted, this is from data in flow, has margin of error) : 77 Million Short shares on loan 7 days ago: 50 Million Short shares on loan now (This breaks the bearish margin calls affect longs more thesis): 54.2 Million % of known float short: 147% as of 31 December 2020 % of know free float on loaned shorts: 108% as of January 11th. Some guy on here took into account extra buying on wednesday, Institutions, Burry, RC's extra 7% and WSB ownership (something so stupendously retarded no serious firm will do it) that float on short could be in the 100s of %. Total short float now I would say could be 200-400% if the numbers are correct. This pisses on all other short squeezes. Some countries ban shorting above 100% cos of how autistic it is. The recent hike in interactive brokers available shares is probably a mix of sell off on friday (remember some guys are now buying lambos with GME money. If they held they could buy 10), calls exercising and puts being covered and brokers ditching the shares. Nakedshort even reported 5 million naked GME shorts on friday. This is bullish as fuck because the best the shorts could do on a red market day was -10%. Gamestop is still on the SECs threshold list for 27 days now. This shows naked short selling and downwards pressure hasnt capitulated Need rockets 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀: Ok so now if WSB owns an estimated 6-8% of the stock and we all know to move over to cash accounts now to avoid margin calls, we should be minimizing longs getting margin called. Every bear on stockwits is a clueless cuck who spouts "blockbuster" and these guys dont even know what margin even is so my bet is the colossal 54 Million shares short on loan are gonna be affected by the margin calls more. Why? Because every long on margin is in the green, and now a true zealot/extremist/autist for ryan cohen so will supply their account with collateral to avoid margin call. Shorts are in the massive red zone. How do I know you ask? Ortex data from Jan 4th 2021: This is the data from ortex for short interest for Gamestop for Jan 4th So this shows for jan 4th the estimated short interest is 66.98 Million shares. From the exchange reported 71 Million on december 31st this makes a lot of sense because the share price fell from ~21 to ~17 so shorts took profits. The shares on loan arent for longs too. This is all purely short data, and 47M shorted at $17 this shows. These shorts are in a circle of hell we cant comprehend and makes satan scared. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Now for the data for this week: Ortex short data for Jan 14th for Gamestop SHARES ON LOAN HAVE GONE UP. BUT 87% OF LOANED SHORTS WHERE SHORTING AT SUB $20. Cost to borrow is also up, estimated short interest is up to a cataclysmic amount. Longs on margin need to supply collateral, but we are in the massive green zone, shorts are underwater. Margin calls will ravage the shorts and sting the longs. We also have the uptick rule in place until the end of the day, so shorts can only short on the way up. Im not saying itll happen but this shit is skewed in our favour big time. we need to 💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Seen a lot of talk about Gamma hedging and delta. You realize that the fucking bankers and brokers dont understand gamma hedging right? That shits up their with the black-scholes equation and feynman-kac solution. Forget about it. The retards claiming to understand it are either payed by hedge funds or lose money. The guy who took out outs thinking options exercising and gamma hedging would lead to a collossal sell off on friday lost money on his puts because no one except some quants in a goldman sachs server room know this shit. The idea is simple about neutral delta on options that people take out, but the simple system interacts with every other thing in the stock market, and wow who couldve guessed it, like nearly any other element of the stock market predicting something by the day is nigh impossible. That guy talking about Gamma , Delta and margin calls is on weeklies. Hes no more autistic and equally retarded as all of us. Hes a chill guy though so dont berate a fellow brother. Now weve established the likelihood of longs getting margin called is far smaller than shorts, on to the options distributions Two images now: Top one is before the end of the 15th, the other one is after market close: This shows the suspected melvin puts (51000 contracts, 5 Million shares, rolled up from july, strike price $24) and lots of big ITM calls. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 This shows the big put contract didnt get rolled over and the big ITM calls got exercised on friday. Large puts are underwater big timem while calls are in the big tendy zone. These two graphs, show before market close and after. As we can see the massiver 51000 put contracts didnt get rolled over and the chances that those were melvins july puts rolled up is very high. They expired worthless. Lots of calls are printing big time while huge amounts of puts are worthless and bleeding money. Something else we can extrapolate from the charts is that massive options trades are not present on the scale we saw before (tens of thousands). 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 We are seeing a discrepancy in the number of puts/calls opening up at the higher prices with calls gaining fast. This could show that some funds are now becoming optimistic on the long or short term prospects of gamestop. There are also more puts than options and if we assume this for shorts vs longs on margin (without even taking into account that all shorts are borrowed shares and pay interest further bleeding cash) then shorts are likely on more margin than longs. Regardless fellow autists my main point is two show that the bears are underwater and the bulls are flying high with regards to options. Now lets compare this possible squeeze with others. Bear in mind this is the most shorted stock of all time, but differences in free float change the share price differently. Kodak went from $2.16 to $33.2 Volkswagen went from ~200 euro to nearly 1000. Overstock went from ~$21 to $123 Blue apron went from $2.31 to $18 Ive been seeing some estimated that 1 million shares is roughly a dollars move in share price. This maths is about to be pretty autistic so bear with me degnerates. $1 now is 2.81% of the share price. Everything in the markets is exponential and based on percentages. So if we assume a full squeeze of ortexs estimated short interest (This assumes no sell off and no new shorts, new shorts can be positive or negative depedning on when in the squeeze they happen) $35.5 * 1.0281^77 = $299. GME to moon. 🌑 . This shit can happen. Hold on. GME has squeezed and been manipulated before and it always happens around the console cycles. Shorts never win and they wont win now. This post right here I found months ago and got me in the squeeze from the honourable and valiant u/Uberkikz aka Rod Alzman Basically the crayon chart shows green (outstanding shares) orange ( short shares) purple (Market cap) and cyan (Share price). In 2006-2008 the share price rose in tandem with short interest ( Like now ) Until console releases when you can see an abrupt squeeze happend mooning the share price. This happend to a degree in 2013 with the xbox one but worse conditions for the company and a worse console launch lead to slow short covering but the share price still mooned. Now we get to the best part. History is repeating itself for the third time and the shares sold short are literally higher than the outstanding shares, which have been decreasing since 2010. Short shares are also at the highest point ever and GME hasnt had a brighter future, well ever. Ps5 and Xbox Series X. are the two most hyped consoles since the Ps2. This is setting up the foundations for massive price movements weve never seen before. This shit has literally never happend, ever. Uncharted waters and we are the captain. For the insurmountably retarded autists who think that the squeeze has happend look upon this and despair: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kwpf6k/gme_gang_there_hasnt_been_a_short_squeeze_yet/ IHOR IS A MEGA WIZARD Ihor I quote:
A long-buying tsunami ... is the primary factor for the price move
Ihor Dusaniwsky is managing director of predictive analytics at S3 a firm similar to ortex. He told bloomberg that the squeeze hasnt happend yet and that this was long buying. If someone knows this shit its him. He was talking about the tesla squeeze in january 2020. He has access to resources we can only imagine. Barrons cut his comment that the squeeze hasnt happend yet out it was that fucking bullish. All the media ramming down "Short squeeze has happend" down peoples throats because bears are fucking scared. The bots on stocktwits spamming bearish sentiment should show how rattled they are. Edit: You fucking degens just enlightened me that cramer pump is real, funds are ruminating over the long weekend, and stmmy bills pumps stonks and that stimmy bill buys many an xbox. See you at andromeda! Also more rockets. Edit**: Some autists thought lottery ticket was misleading so instead, gauranteed lottery numbers!** Edit 3: RYAN FUCKING COHEN TWEETED THE HOMIE JUST TWEETED. PEANUT EMOJI. HES 1) NUTTING 2) SAYING 35 IS PEANUTS 3) GIF SAYS THERES A CHANCE, SHORT SQUEEZE IMMENINT HOMIES Edit 4: Amazing post here showing that unlucky prize guy was wrong like I said. Ihor also talked about the hypothecation agreement. Edit 5: This is true and I forgot to add
from u/luncheonmeat79 via /wallstreetbets sent 2 minutes ago There’s also the chance of a ratings upgrade. Moody’s and S&P have GME at B3 and B-, which is rated “highly speculative”. Ratings are reviewed every quarter, and a review might be due this month (i.e. this coming week or next). Good chance that the agencies might upgrade GME to a B2/B, or even better to the next higher band (Ba/BB).
Edit 6: We are scraping 42 in frankfurt. Granted its low volumes but pre market should open at these prices I think? Conclusion: Buy shares with cash not margin. Hold shares forever unless RC dies (Shame hes a cybernetic demigod), Melvin bad, Shorts fuk, 🐻 🌈 posting bearish shit are doing weeklies for the second time after they expired red on friday, GME to $200 without squeeze, Ryan cohen a god, GME is still a value play, Good luck have fun.
The community doesn’t understand game development - A very long post from a game designer
I’ve been playing Destiny for quite some time and I’ve enjoyed the community around it a lot, but the one thing that frustrates me the most about Destiny is how little the community actually knows about game development. It’s driving me crazy, so I wrote this whole thing down. I’m a game designeproducer myself, I’ve never worked on a project as massive as Destiny (not many people ever do), but I have worked on several gaming projects, some of them big in large companies, some of them small gaming apps. I know enough to explain the basics here, but I’m definitely not the ultimate authority on videogames and I’m not representing Bungie whatsoever, everything here is only from my experience. My goal here is to give you some useful info and calm my mind about this. The Destiny community is incredibly vocal, especially this sub, which is generally a good thing, but the lack of understanding really damages not only the enjoyment of the community members but also the game itself IMO. I’ll explain some of the basics I think any hardcore fan should know here with an example and then I’ll outline some specific problems. How Games Are Made A videogame pipeline can be simplified into this flow: Demand from the top/the market -> top management decision -> design and prototyping -> development and feedbacks -> in house testing -> public testing -> marketing and publishing -> data collecting and analysis -> feedback implementation. It’s a circle that applies to everything from the big picture like the main campaign, to the smallest details like colors of shaders or proofreading of even the smallest posts. Every decision made in this system, even the tiniest ones, has to be debated, supported by data and expertise, approved in multiple places based on the priority, and checked multiple times after it’s implemented. Game developers, especially in a powerhouse like Bungie, are very skilled, talented, experienced, and passionate people who always do their best to navigate that flow to satisfy the demands with a quality product delivered on time. I can’t stress this enough, developers (including QA testers, designers, artists, marketing, publishing, the whole team) are pretty much always incredibly hard-working people with a love for video games, because otherwise, they would never stay in this scummy business. They’re underpaid, overworked, and most likely overqualified for what they have to do. Some of them know almost everything there is to know about their field and they’re always improving as well. Because video games, especially gargantuan living games with real-time action combat like Destiny, are insanely complicated, you need sometimes hundreds of experts to put them together. The pipeline needs to be perfectly planned, flexible so you can adapt to problems, and also easy enough to implement so you can deliver the product on time. All of these factors result in a tight-rope walk that never ends. Now it’s time for an example. Let’s say during Season of the Worthy you get an assignment to create a catalyst for Thorn that would make it more popular in PVE, but doesn’t make it overpowered in PVP. Seems simple enough, right? There are dozens of posts about this topic on this subreddit, how hard can it be. The answer is, very, very hard. You start working on your designs. You analyze all other exotic catalysts and hand cannon perks in the game - how they were made, their philosophy, psychological effects, and how they influence gameplay, you discuss everything in your team. When you create your first version, your design lead tells your whole team that hand cannons are getting a range buff and Thorn is now a 140 RPM and you have to adjust your design. After that, your priorities get shifted to helping with Beyond Light and the DSC weapons so it’s finished on time, so you put Thorn on hold. You don’t want to waste time though, so you give the art team an assignment to create the catalyst icon. After two months of work on Beyond Light, you come back to Thorn, but now you basically have to start over because the future meta has changed so much. You create new designs and this time they’re approved by management, so you move onto prototyping. Developers are way too busy debugging and QA testing Beyond Light, so they have no time for Thorn and that task gets put into their To-Do list. You have no choice but to move onto your other tasks and start working on weapons for seasons 13 and 14. When development starts finally working on Thorn, they find an exploit in your design that would allow it to two tap in PVP, you have to rework it again and hope they’ll have time to implement it this time. They don’t and the Thorn catalyst now officially misses its deadline and is pushed from Beyond Light. The marketing team doesn’t hear about it though, so they publish the icon you had made four months ago, leaking the catalyst coming out. This is of course your fault, but these things happen during all the chaos and there was almost nothing you could have done. When you finally push this task through and it’s checked and approved dozens of times in different places (weapon design team, design lead, writing, sandbox team, development, QA, studio director, etc.) you have to make sure it’s published correctly in the right build, it has all necessary descriptions and marketing texts done and translated into all languages and the community managers know about it so they can get ready to collect data. This single task took you a year to complete even when you did your best to do it fast and well and I left out about 90% of problems you would normally encounter. THIS is game development. Community Attitude and Feedback Now we get to why the uninformed community hurts the game so much. This sub would only see Thorn getting a catalyst and it would immediately be flooded with posts like “The catalyst sucks in PVE, buff pls”, “Bungo doesn’t care, the catalyst sucks for Warlocks” and a few “Why catalyst for Thorn, but not for Skyburner’s Oath”, completely missing the point of the catalyst and adding nothing to the discussion. Bungie devs are way more informed, skilled, and experienced than us, the community. The only feedback they are interested in from us is quantitative - basically what we like and what we don’t like about the game. Any posts giving them ideas, elaborate reworks, or straight up negative outrage will accomplish nothing, because they already know everything about the game and discuss it daily in way more detail than we could ever imagine. The only qualitative feedback they should collect and measure is from content creators and the top 1% of the player base because those people actually know some aspects of the game Bungie doesn’t. I know it may sound like the hated “Bungo only listens to sweats and Youtubers”, but that’s kinda the point, they should be listening. It doesn’t mean that our voices are ignored or not listened to. I would bet all of my money that all forums are constantly monitored and analyzed. The truth is, however, that the only valid opinion we can give that Bungie should consider is what aspects of the game we like, and what aspects we don’t. Anything beyond that we already tell them through data they collect from our play sessions. As I wrote above, any change within this massive game is complicated and could take months or years to be implemented, so being upset we don’t have everything now is just useless. Bungie is hard at work to make good stuff, we should respect them more and not bring out the pitchforks every time a season slows down a bit and we can’t play for four hours a day every day for the whole year. There will always be problems in a live game and they are doing a fantastic job, I can’t even imagine how much work must go into it. So before you post about something in the future, take a moment to think about the process and figure out what exactly you can provide to the devs with your feedback, because otherwise, you’re fanning the flames on something that probably isn’t actually burning. It’s just taking its time as it should. With all of the above said, it isn't the community's fault that we're not informed. The fault lies entirely with Bungie not educating people enough and this problem could be avoided. Reasons Why Things Suck I’ll close by giving my two cents on why the game isn’t perfect and never will be, just so you know where the community's frustrations should go.
The biggest reason that influences everything - Bungie is a company owned by a group of shareholders that will always force the studio to grow and provide more profit. With every extra dollar, the value of the company grows and the board of directors gets richer and because of the super predatory capitalism we live in now, Bungie has to justify every single decision with a monetary value. It's not the fault of the devs, they don't make much money themselves.
The game is massive and always online. I’m pretty confident that no other studio would be able to support Destiny for so long without the game completely crashing down. Technology always evolves and it’s almost impossible to keep a living game up to date, so some parts of the front end of the game will always suck because Bungie has to upkeep the back end we will never get to see.
The project has been going on for a decade, which leads to people wanting to naturally move on. Replacing team members on a living game is very difficult, which leads to problems and delays.
The community is not educated about the game enough, which is why I ended up writing this. The continuous cycle of negative outrage that comes from a lack of understanding damages the game because the devs are forced to deal with it without disclosing information. If people knew more, they could help Bungie, but no company that wants to make big profits will ever open up its communication because it would show just how many decisions are influenced by the search for profit.
That’s it, sorry for the length of this essay. I hope you learned something and let me know if you’d be interested in more stuff like this (takes on sunsetting, sandbox, etc.). I would like to give people more info so they don’t waste their precious time on stuff completely outside of their control and maybe educate people about the industry. I love the game and I hope you’ll appreciate it a bit more now. Edit 1: This post is not meant as a defense for the faults of the game or an excuse for bad decisions, it's meant as a resource to give you perspective and information. If you believe the game is not as good as it was promised to be or disagree with some design choices made, you are of course entitled to your own opinion, and there are quite a few things I myself absolutely hate in Destiny. I can't answer questions related to design on Destiny with confidence, because I don't work for Bungie and I won't speculate much on why certain decisions were made. I can give you my opinion on stuff like sunsetting based on my experience in another post, but ultimately it's only speculation with little benefit. All I will say is that there is always more stuff we don't know about the game than we do know and design should be judged in context. When it comes to questions related to Bungie's scummy tactics when it comes to monetization and bad communication, I agree with you, as I said above. Money is the biggest factor of why Destiny suffers and the best way for us to do anything about that is to stop buying it. I know it's a cliche statement, but it's true. And lastly, for the comments saying stuff like "shut up, Bungie sucks and you know it", please read what I said again and think about it. The devs most likely love the game just as much as you once did, if not much more. Edit 2: I'll add one thing that keeps popping up. It's clear that Destiny is a product developed for profit, so if your outlook is "I don't want to know about development, I'm just an unhappy consumer that didn't like this product", I agree as would most likely everybody that it's absolutely a valid stance, but that's not what my post was about. If that's how you see any product, you should tell the producer why you didn't like it if you care enough to do so and move on. The post is meant to inform people who don't want to move on from Destiny, especially those who continuously engage with the product from a place of understanding even if they don't have it, which wastes their time and does nothing for the product. If you don't like this game or any other game, it's absolutely OK and you should move on from playing it, complaining about things you don't want to understand won't help you achieve what you want and only makes the game worse. As I said above, the best way to show your disagreements is not to support the company and if you don't like Destiny, please stop playing it and take care of yourself. Your time is valuable, don't give it away to someone you don't agree with. Edit 3 This will be the last edit on this post. I appreciate all the awards and great discussions happening below, but holy cow did this get a lot of vitriol. I expected a lot of negativity, but it still surprised me. It's partially my fault for trying to talk about so much with not enough room so I'm sure I made a few mistakes. I'll reply to a few things that I want to make clear and then leave this alone, it's way too long anyway. If you see any malicious intent, attacks, arrogance, or "Bungie shilling" between the lines, I put none there, at least not on purpose. My goal was to inform, as I said right at the start, so if you see any other agenda, it's not there and my writing either wasn't clear enough, or you're looking for something that I didn't write. Take the post for what it is, a stranger on the internet telling you something you may not know from their experience. If you disagree with me, downvote the post and explain why, no need to insult anyone, you're once again wasting your precious time. I didn't mention management as a problem on Destiny, because I don't know enough about it. Leadership is very often a problem on any collaborative projects but calling someone out without the necessary data is exactly what I warned about in my post, so I won't comment on it, but feel free to disagree with me. Maybe you know more about the subject than I do and I'll be happy to read your reply. I never put myself up as an ultimate authority on the subject, all of this is just basics I thought hardcore fans should know and I communicated that. This post was already very long and I didn't have time, nor did I want to describe theory in detail, so insulting me over not explaining how scrum works in a post meant for people with no experience is not necessary. If you want to argue about production methodologies, my reasoning on examples given, and how healthy management looks like with me please feel free to message me and I'm sure we'll have a cool conversation, I'd love to hear about your experience from working in gaming. And that's it, I hope you got something out of this. Have a great day and see you around.
I built a decent Gaming PC for $206 using used parts from my local area...
***WOW this post really blew up. I'm really grateful for all the great comments and awards. Thank you everyone. This was my second PC but I have been really getting more into the budget build route and so I'm glad other people are into that! Happy deal hunting :) DISCLAIMER: I sourced these used components over the last few weeks in my local area (SF Bay CA). Where I live, there's a pretty good selection of used PC parts so your mileage will vary depending on where you live. But I just wanted to put it out there that many of you can definitely build a decent gaming PC for $200-400 if you are willing to spend the time to hunt for deals in your local area, especially if you live in/near a metropolitan area. pics Parts List CPU: Intel Xeon e5 2620 v3 6 core/12 thread - $16 eBay Motherboard: Asus Sabertooth X99 - $85 Craigslist CPU Cooler: CoolerMaster Hyper 212 - $20 OfferUp Memory: Corsair Vengeance 16GB DDR4 2400 MHz (CPU reads a max of 1866) - $40 OfferUp Storage: WD 640GB HDD 7200 rpm - $10 Craigslist GPU: EVGA GTX 960 SC 4GB (I actually bought 2 at once for $75 on Facebook Marketplace, sold one on eBay for $100 essentially GIVING me $15 (after eBay/PayPal fees) and a free GPU) Case: Phanteks prebuild case w/ 3 RGB Apevia fans - $30 Craigslist PSU: Corsair CX600 - $20 Facebook Marketplace Total (including the $15 I gained from selling the extra GPU): $206 I can happily play CS:GO, Apex Legends, Fortnite, GTA V and many other games at 1080p at medium settings or better and get 60+ fps. With a better GPU and a little more money, you wouldn't have any issues getting much higher FPS. So let's break down these components a little bit more and talk about which deals will be harder to replicate if you plan on doing something like this. Firstly, the CPU is actually the easiest part to attain on this list. These can regularly be had for $20 off eBay. This particular X99 motherboard is VERY NICE for $85 (I actually got it for $70 but paid $15 for the OEM IO shield off eBay because it didn't come with one). It's a quality mobo with 8 slots for RAM so upgrading RAM on this will be as easy as buying another kit of the same capacity and as time goes by and RAM gets cheaper, you could just keep doing that if you wanted without having to get rid of your previous RAM. But finding this exact motherboard for the price may be difficult. Luckily there are X99 motherboards being made out of China right now using recycled chipsets for about $60-120 depending on the particular models (available from AliExpress). Some of these motherboards are actually pretty good quality, but definitely do your research first. I recommend checking out Miyconst on YouTube. This Xeon/X99 setup is pretty popular in Russia and Brazil because of hardware prices and availability so this is a Russian Ukrainian guy who reviews all of these Chinese motherboards in great detail. The CPU cooler will be easy to find for about that price. Even new, the Hyper 212 is only $35 but if you buy used just make sure you get the LGA2011-3 hardware necessary for securing it to the motherboard. $40 for 16GB of DDR4 is a good deal but I've seen this same deal pop up a few times but more often at $50. Finding used but working 500-1000GB HDD's for $10-20 is quite easy but I recommend only using this as a storage for games and re-downloadable files. I planned on having a m.2 SSD in this rig but accidentally bought a SATA m.2 drive instead of NVMe (SATA m.2 not supported by this motherboard) so I will still need to upgrade that. But any SSD for your OS and important files will do and you can find these for around $30-40 for a 256 GB SSD new, maybe $10-20 more for an NVMe. The GPU of course is where the real bargain hunt will be. In 2021, GPU's are super overpriced but I had seen another 960 4GB for $40 in my area after purchasing 2 of them for $75 total, so getting one around $40-60 is definitely possible. This is where I'd upgrade first (after an SSD). Other higher performing options would be the R9 390 8GB (recently purchased one for $80 and another for $100), the RX 580 8GB (recently purchased one for $125 but seen them locally for $150) or even a 1080 (purchased one for $200 but have seen them go for $260 locally). Really, any decent GPU you can find for around $50-200 would be great with this build. I recommend referring to this Tom's Hardware List to see where GPU's rank overall when you're shopping for a used GPU. This part will be where you'll spend most of your time hunting, but those elusive GPU deals are out there! This case was a good find but I had also received a FREE CoolerMaster ATX case not too long ago, with 3 140mm fans included, in great condition. People often give away or sell their cases for cheap because they take up a lot of space. Look for one with fans included and even better if it comes with screws/standoffs. Finding a 500-700W PSU for $20-40 is not difficult but this is a component that many people would just prefer to buy new and I don't blame them. At least by 80+ Bronze if you go used. But honestly, I think I'd rather buy a used PSU from a reputable brand than a cheap, new PSU from some brand I never heard of. Overall, this was a fun build to make and I love reducing e-waste so buying used is good for me. I highly recommend though that you have all the appropriate screws/hardware when buying used parts so ask about that stuff when you purchase something and if it's not included, buy that replacement hardware online before you start your build because it's frustrating to start putting your PC together and then realize you don't have enough screws, etc. It's a little more of a hassle but you can save a lot of money! Feel free to ask any questions, this is only my second PC build (just started last month but have been diving DEEP into PC building rabbit holes online). But I hate when people on this sub instantly shoot people down asking about $200-400 PC's saying it's not possible. IT IS POSSIBLE, but you have to get creative and it also helps to live in certain areas I won't deny that.
[Video Games/Rollercoaster Tycoon] Theme Park Studio: How a developer set exceedingly high expectations and failed to meet them
Tl;dr: fans of a video game are excited about the release of what could be the spiritual successor of their video game. Said developer makes very bold promises and obviously fails to deliver, finally releasing a very disappointing game and alienating most of the community. I recently stumbled upon this subreddit; I've enjoyed reading most of the posts here and figured I had a few stories to share as well. From 2012 to about 2018, I was active (though with intermittent breaks) in a community of Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 players. This was a small community, with no more than a few hundred active members at its heyday and only a few people active now. Despite its small size, there were definitely a few memorable instances of drama. This is one of those stories; it actually involved another game called Theme Park Studio, which – as you may expect from the title – was not what it promised to be. Background Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 was released in October 2004, developed by Frontier and published by Atari. It was primarily a theme park management game, where players have to earn money and keep guests happy in a theme park by constructing and maintaining rides, shops, paths, scenery and more. There was also a sandbox mode that allowed players to build without any monetary restrictions. A small but active community set out to build roller coasters and theme parks (and occasionally completely different projects) in this sandbox mode and share their results online. While the game was good for its time and viewed positively by many, it did have some downsides. Firstly, the game used a grid: when placing rides and scenery, you were confined to this grid and had little freedom to place things where you want. Secondly, the roller coaster construction system was limited compared to similar games, and as a result most roller coasters were hardly very smooth. Thirdly, the game was poorly optimized. As an example: the game had a day-night cycle, but the game was basically unplayable at night, so people set the game to only daytime. Over time, people became more and more ambitious in their projects, and these problems became more apparent. As a solution, lots of custom content (akin to mods in other games) was made by members of the community: custom scenery objects, custom rides and even custom roller coaster tracks. These objects were much more versatile and looked much better than most in-game content. As a result, people almost exclusively used custom content to build their projects. Combined with some smart picture and video editing, almost nothing was still recognizable from the original game. While custom content brought a whole new level of versatility and arguably kept the community running for a long time, the aforementioned problems still persisted. Because the game was being pushed to its limits, people were wondering when a sequel was coming. By 2012, there was no word yet by Atari on a potential sequel, and many similar games from other video game publishers had failed to offer any meaningful improvement to Rollercoaster Tycoon 3. However, this was soon to change. The spiritual successor Enter Pantera Entertainment, a small, unknown video game publisher and developer. In November 2012, they posted a trailer to Theme Park Studio, which presented itself as a theme park building tool. Unlike Rollercoaster Tycoon 3, which had a focus on park management, the focus was on building attractive theme parks and rides. Many of the aforementioned issues were solved in this game: there was no grid-based system that dictated where you had to build, roller coasters could be constructed with much more freedom, and the graphics looked more modern. One major feature was the ability to import custom content. Obviously this was also possible in Rollercoaster Tycoon 3, but only using third-party software. That the developers were now anticipating for this was a good sign. The community was generally excited about Theme Park Studio: it looked to be the spiritual successor to Rollercoaster Tycoon 3. The staff from Pantera would even visit the forums (at the time, most of the community was active through online messaging boards) and would happily provide updates, answer questions and take suggestions. This left a good impression with most of the community. Over the coming months, more and more promises were being made on new features and huge amounts of content. The game was looking to become a very ambitious project. Now, it would later be discovered that little development had actually been done on the game: the trailer had really only showed footage from Pantera’s earlier title, Hyper Rails. Nevertheless, the release date was set for summer 2013, and the community was still optimistic for a long time. In April 2013, a Kickstarter campaign was set up. For the uninitiated, Kickstarter allows for developers to source crowdfunding for a project. Developers set a goal and have a set time to achieve that goal. People can ‘back’ a project by donate towards that goal, and in return receive rewards based on the amount they donated. Money only goes towards the project if that goal is actually reached; otherwise the ‘backers’ receive their money back. Well, Pantera set a goal of $80.000 for Theme Park Studio, to be fulfilled within a month. Backer rewards were ambitious: lower amounts would get you the game for free, both a physical and digital copy, and perhaps some merchandise, while those who backed larger amounts were allowed to suggest or design certain rides for the game, and the highest-tier backers (think $500 or more, which only a few people donated) would get you an invitation to a big release party. Now, keep these rewards in mind, as they’ll become important later on. It took a while and people feared the goal wouldn’t be met, but thanks to enough promotion and a few generous donations, about $100.000 was raised, and the goal was met. Despite Pantera’s ambitious promises, the community was optimistic. Some high-standing members of the community were even assisting in the development of the game and were offering their custom content – made for Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 – to be used in Theme Park Studio. Unfortunately, as we would later discover, this hard work would never really pay off. Early access The Kickstarter campaign offered a release date of September 2013. As time went on, it became very apparent that this was unachievable. The game was delayed several times; first to later in 2013, then to April 2014. Finally, they announced that instead of waiting for the complete game, Theme Park Studio would enter Early Access on Steam in February 2014. Early Access allows people to play a game before its full release. People can play the game and offer feedback to the developers, who can use this feedback to improve the game and add new content in free updates to the players. In this case, that would mean that Theme Park Studio would first release as a basic theme park builder, and that other features, such as new rides and the custom content importer would be added later. Early Access is an example of something that works well on paper, but is often butchered in practice. When done well, Early Access is a win-win situation: players don’t have to wait to play the game but can get involved in its development, and developers will receive money which they can use to fund the rest of the development. Unfortunately, it is rarely done well, and there are many games released through Early Access that are flat-out unplayable or clearly unfinished. Similarly, many games never leave Early Access or only leave many years later, because developers have little incentive to improve and complete a game they’ve already received money for. Well, Theme Park Studio would turn out to fit the latter category. Upon release, the game was... disappointing. Most notable was the lack of ability to build roller coasters: players could only build flat rides (simple rides such as a merry-go-round or a Ferris wheel). The game was also poorly optimized and didn’t look particularly great. Still, many people called for the community to be patient and wait for new updates to come: Pantera had provided a route map for the implementation of further updates to provide some perspective. This implementation was generally very slow. For example, the ability to build roller coasters – a rather essential part of a theme park construction tool - didn’t come until August that year; even then, people weren’t happy about it, as it was unintuitive and difficult to use, and many considered it hardly an improvement from Rollercoaster Tycoon 3. The community slowly grew divided. A sizeable group defended Theme Park Studio and called for people to be patient, but a growing group had become very critical of the game and its developers. However, besides lacking updates and producing a game of low quality, there were other glaring issues as well. Pantera loses approval Now, remember the aforementioned Kickstarter rewards? As time went on, it became increasingly clear that many of these rewards would never be released. Many people complained about not receiving digital access to the game once it was released through Early Access, despite promises from Pantera – and that was the easiest reward for them to fulfil. Even to this day, some people are yet to receive digital access. People were also losing hope about higher-tier rewards, such as physical copies of the game, merchandise and the release party. Probably the most controversial reward tiers were those that allowed backers to design rides, however. More than 100 people had pledged enough money to have a ride suggestion implemented into the game. It turned out, however, that many of these suggestions would never see the light of day. On the forums, people complained about their suggestions being rejected, while some received no response from Pantera. When eventually an update was released that was supposed to contain rides suggested by backers, people noted that way fewer rides were added than that there were backers. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but I think no more than 10% saw their rides actually published in-game. Now, resentment grew towards Pantera for failing to uphold their end of the bargain and releasing an unfinished, low-quality game. By this time, there was also not much left of the actively involved, feedback-taking staff that represented the game when it was first announced: the developer became notorious for failing to take and accept constructive criticism. Many people had their posts removed and accounts banned from the official Theme Park Studio forum for speaking out against the developer. Another absurd rule on their forums was their stance on ‘dark rides’, mainly indoor rides based around creating an atmosphere above being thrilling, such as a haunted house. As the name suggests, many dark rides are dark: the atmosphere is creepy or scary, and many horror themes are used. Well, the forum banned the posting of rides containing demonic themes or otherwise being ‘sacrilegious’, effectively meaning most dark rides. This pissed off the community, as quite a few people made dark rides and this was seen as infringement on their creativity. It also spawned a series of memes on rides that were “too dark and sinister for Theme Park Studio”. Another questionable decision by the development team was to add VR support; while becoming the only theme park building or management game to have it, it was generally criticised because it would add very little to the game and so many other aspects of the game needed much more working on. I’m sure there were other decisions made by Pantera that received significant backlash from the community, but these I remember best. The aftermath Over time, interest in Theme Park Studio faded away and people generally gave up hope that they would ever receive their Kickstarter rewards. There were still a few avid supporters of the game, but the broken promises, slow progress, disappointing results and bad PR meant most people in the community had changed their stance over the years. The game was forgotten and slowly faded into irrelevance. There was no real way for backers to get their money back or otherwise hold Pantera accountable for the unfulfilled promises, an issue that other failed Kickstarter campaigns unfortunately also have. Amazingly, some of the backers reported actually receiving a physical copy of the game, albeit five or six years after the initial Kickstarter campaign, but similarly there are still people waiting for their rewards to this date. Theme Park Studio was finally released in December 2016, after many years in development. It released without much fanfare and definitely without a release party that backers had paid hundreds, sometimes even thousands of dollars for; many people didn’t even notice it had left Early Access. The game never took off and its reviews on Steam are mostly negative. The entire fiasco made people much more sceptical of other new games: from 2014 onwards, many other theme park simulation games were announced and released, but people were much more cautiously optimistic about these games (and rightfully so; many of them failed, but those are stories for another time). Eventually, the true spiritual successor to Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 was released: Planet Coaster, developed by Frontier (the original developers of Rollercoaster Tycoon 3). It was released in November 2016, prompting some to think that the definitive release of Theme Park Studio only weeks later was a hasty attempt to piggyback off of that success. It did almost everything Theme Park Studio promised and offered the possibility to build much more detailed and complex rides. Over time, many people who played Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 switched over to Planet Coaster because of the vast improvements. People generally forgot about Theme Park Studio, and many people wanted to leave it in the past. It’s hard to find many of the original forum posts on the topic. RCTLounge, one of the major forums on the topic, was closed in 2016 due to inactivity. In 2018, Shyguy’s World, another forum on the topic, actually removed the Theme Park Studios board and deleted all posts to forget about the ‘dark and sinister’ affair. As the forum’s owner said: “The first rule of Theme Park Studio... you do not talk about Theme Park Studio”. The official Theme Park Studios forums are also down and the website is vastly outdated. Most of this post was sourced by memories, the Wayback machine and the few threads I could still find. Many people agreed that Pantera was probably a well-intentioned company that had simply bitten off more than they could chew. Clearly they had vastly underestimated the difficulty of this project and lost any drive to complete the project as it went on and support disappeared. Nevertheless, all the drama resulted in a bitter aftertaste for many people and changed people’s outlooks on the future releases of similar games.
[The Legend of Zelda Fandom] Joe_Cracker and the Light of Courage: A naive fanboy's screenplay becomes a classic fan-animation and later part of a campaign for Congress
Prepare to Get Crackasized! The Legend of Zelda is a long-running fantasy video game series from Nintendo, essentially ubiquitous in popular culture. However, this drama concerns itself quite little with the games themselves, but the antics and exploits of possibly the most infamous fan of the series and his quixotic quest to get a script based on the series turned into an animated movie. The year was 2003. The most recent game in the series at that point was The Wind Waker, and along with speculation about future titles and the much-debated Zelda timeline, a popular forum topic was the possibility of a movie based on the series, with dream casting, directors, plots, etc. It was not uncommon to see fan-scripts posted on forums like Zelda Universe, with varying degrees of quality. Importantly for this story, most fans at the time hated the only official animated adaptation of Zelda, the cartoon series from 1989 (link doesn't work outside of the USA). Joe_Cracker, real name Robert C. McGee, was a 19-year-old high school senior from York, South Carolina. He posted the first message in a now-infamous thread on the IGN Zelda forums announcing his ambitious plans to create an animated movie based on the 1989 cartoon series titled "The Light of Courage," with elements from later games like Ocarina of Time and Majora's Mask included. He promised the following:
This is it, this is what you guys wanted. All you guys who want to talk about the Zelda movie, this is the topic for you. As you may all know, the movie is based on the 80's t.v. show, and the simplist things about this movie is.
It will use the same animation from the T.V. show but with an up to date look, such as shadow effects, motion effects, and more
The same sound effects, that originated from the first Zelda game will be used as well as many others, old and new.
It will also feature most of the same voice cast, but for my ideas for new cariters and other Zelda cariters, never seen in the T.V. show and who should do their voices, I will post them in other topics everytime 10 people sign my petition.
A few free give aways, I want to cast myself to be the voices of "The Triforce of Courage" and "Majora's Mask". I want to bring in Captain Lou Albano and Danny Wells to do a "Super Mario Bros. Super Mini Movie" that will play in front of the main feature.
All petition updates and sneak peaks will be posted as seprate topics
That is all.
Joe's wide-eyed optimism and earnest, but naive, attempts to get his script turned into a film bemused certain forumites. He insisted that he could obtain the rights to the Zelda series via a PetitionOnline page, and imagined an all-star cast, including Whoopi Goldberg and Britney Spears. One forum user nicknamed "THESPOTLIGHT" attempted to inject Joe with a sense of reality.
📷Date Posted: 9/9/03 2:46pm Subject: RE: The Legend of Zelda: The Light of Courage - A working progress Joe Cracker Said: "Once I am done with the screenplay, I want to submit to the right people that will help me get the Legal rights to do whatever I want with it and re-asemble the original voice cast."---------------------------------------------I say:I bet you don't evem know WHO the RIGHT people are! There isn't a team of people looking for amature screenplays to turn into low-budgeted movies. The rights to do a Zelda movie alone costs OVER A MILLION DOLLARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NO PRODUCER IN THEIR RIGHT MIND WOULD EVER LISTEN TO YOU OR YOUR PETITION. I just being honest with you. I know what it takes and you don't have it. You may be creative but it takes EXPERIENCE to make a good 90 min movie. The Cracker will crumble under the pressure.
Undaunted, the Cracker persisted, handing out flyers in his hometown to get people to sign his online petition. Unfortunately, less than 20 people signed. Out of a combination of frustration and pity, Spotlight agreed to help Joe as a script doctor, but Joe interpreted this arrangement as allowing himself to promote the as-yet-incomplete film online rather than working on his script. Throughout 2004, Spotlight was essentially subject to Cracker's demands and rewrites, being treated as an unpaid employee rather than a partner. Cracker attempted to raise money for his film by selling the NES "Where's Waldo?" game, a film reel of Shrek 2 which he had fished out of a movie theater dumpster, then by selling albums of himself singing on eBay. Spotlight went offline several times, only to poke his head back out and complain about the poor quality of the script and how he was essentially having to re-write it entirely, but Joe brushed off all criticism and insisted the final product would be "Crackasized." By October 2004, the beleaguered co-screenwriter Spotlight abandoned the project, finally done humoring Joe. However, a trio (Triforce?) of trolls emerged to take his place. The first of the trolls was sexualburgerking, who posed as a genuine fan of Cracker's work, pretending to create purposefully-bad fan art for use in the Light of Courage project. He said of Joe_Cracker,
Joe_Cracker is an inspirational craftsman whose talent is only overshadowed by his creative energy. As you can see, he is such an inspiration that at least four talented individuals have offered their creativity and effort to Joe's project, while asking for nothing from him in return.
The second troll was Cellius_18, who created a parody of Joe's project called "The Beacon of Courage," while pretending that it was an earnest attempt to make an animated Zelda movie, as Joe's project was. The reveal of this "knockoff" of course drove Joe bananas, but was intended to get him to work harder on his project. The third troll was orquiox, another user pretending to help with the animation and scripting. Together, the three trolls impersonated John Grusd, who was producer of the 1980s Zelda series, and convinced Cracker that DiC Entertainment was open to producing a full-length Zelda movie (that the rights to the IP ultimately rested with Nintendo went over Joe's head). Joe_Cracker sent "John Grusd" his script, and the movie ultimately got produced as threeCGI-animatedshorts with intentionally-amateurish animation, with dialogue taken straight from Cracker's script, misspellings and grammar errors and all. They released throughout 2005 and 2006, with a promised fourth short languishing in development hell, with the producers jokingly saying it will be finished in 2035. The three videos soon became comedy classics on Zelda boards, with the now-defunct website "Dancing Triforce" set up to host them. Lines such as "My son keeps getting stronger and more braver every day," and "I cased over the moon" became memes among the Zelda fandom in the late 2000s. Time passed and everyone moved on. Joe_Cracker made a full-length Bigfoot mocumentary called "The Unknown Creature", which is essentially 90 minutes of wandering around the woods. He attempted to create the "Perfect NES Clone" and program an NES ROM-maker software with features like 3D graphics generation, despite having zero programming knowledge. He solicited several denizens of the Atari Age forums to "assist" him in this endeavor, but none bit. However, in 2013, he left his filmmaking behind to pursue higher office. Seeing that South Carolina Congressman Mick Mulvaney (who would later become the Trump White House Chief of Staff) was running unopposed, the onetime Internet celebrity attempted to leverage his minor fame to run for Congress. However, Robert C. McGee did not file to run in any political primary, and his campaigning was limited to handing out flyers much like he had for his PetitionOnline page years earlier. Said flyers made explicit reference to the decade-old Light of Courage. Robert McGee received a negligible amount of votes in this heavily-Republican district running as a write-in Democrat. Today, Joe_CrackeRobert McGee maintains a Twitter account and hasn't pursued any more grandiose projects, but his saga brought plenty of laughs 15 years ago. An archived version of the infamous script is here.
My name is Jared A. Brock. Having just turned 35, I sat down to reflect on everything I’ve learned so far and made a list of the things I wish I learned far sooner. None of these are rules or commands for you to follow, just personal reflections from a decade of journaling. I hope they save you a lot of time, energy, and struggle:
1. “Save the best for last” is terrible advice.
A French monk taught me this one. Every morning, I put on the newest pair of socks in my drawer. Why wear the rattiest pair? When I sit down to eat, I eat the tastiest bits first. Why let them get cold? After every shower, I put on my favorite clean t-shirt. I have a great bottle of 10-year-old Laphroaig scotch in my cupboard, but I probably won’t drink it for months because I received two bottles of reactor-aged Lost Spirits single malt for Christmas. Why? Because life is hard enough and we aren’t promised tomorrow. This doesn’t mean we should throw caution to the wind and “live in the moment” at all times, but it does mean we should try to find the golden middle and glean a little bit of pleasure from every day we’re blessed to live. “Save the best for last” is poverty-mentality thinking. It expects worse in the future. Enjoy the best right now — in your marriage, parenting, work, travel, faith, friendship, contribution. Keep all the chips on the table. Be ready at all times to leave without regret.
2. Tools use us.
A hammer literally cannot hit a nail without using a human. A saw cannot cut through a board without using a human. A phone cannot deliver ads without using a human.
3. Avoid false dichotomies.
When given two great options, choose both. When given two horrible options, choose neither.
4. Failure is overcome by one word.
“Next.”
5. Ambition is ruinous for your happiness.
Most goal-setters (myself included) live much of life in anticipation of tomorrow, and when that day arrives, they’re either disappointed by their failures or underwhelmed by their successes. Instead: trust the process. Whiskey, pasta, bread, beer, and cereal all require just two ingredients — wheat and water — but the outcome is completely different based on the process. Identity precedes action. Determine what you want to be, then find the process that will get you there every single time.
6. Forget what the market wants.
Listen to your gut. Your body knows the difference between good and great. Someone said you should never record a song or code an app or write an article unless it makes you laugh, cry, or orgasm. If an idea doesn’t move you, it won’t move an audience, no matter how “commercial” you think it is.
7. Give yourself a shove.
The best way to eat more candy, drink more vodka, and smoke more cigarettes is to leave them in the middle of the kitchen counter. You get it. Willpower is useless. Instead, line up a series of little nudges to automatically get you through your day. If you want to work out, leave your shorts by the door or your cleats in your fridge. My blue diode glasses rest on top of my laptop so I have to protect my eyes before logging online. I can’t not see my vitamins when I brush my teeth, or chia seeds when I reach for the Brita. There’s a book beside my bed, toilet, desk, and car’s gear shifter. Line up enough nudges and you can shove yourself in the right direction.
8. Grandma didn’t use toilet paper.
She used pages from the Sears catalog. Splinter-free wasn’t available until 1935. The Romans used sponges. The Greeks used clay. Francois Rabelais recommended using “the neck of a goose.” Arabians used their left hand. Never assume our extremely unique cultural moment is “normal.”
9. Ninety-nine isn’t enough.
Water boils at 100 degrees Celcius. The difference between 99 and 100 is the difference between zero and one. Not-boiling, boiling. Corollary: 101 doesn’t make it any more boiling.
10. Old people know better.
Honoring our elders is one of the most underrated practices in our newness-obsessed society. Sure, there are a ton of old crazy far-right conspiracy theorists, but there are also good people who have survived four wars, six recessions, and twelve presidents and are somehow still smiling. Get to know them. Also: meet your old-person self. I try to invent a new word every week — one of them is preflection. To ponder the present through the eyes of your future self. Take an hour in silence to listen to your eighty-year-old self. They might know something you don’t.
11. Fire all your employees.
The employer-employee relationship creates an unhealthy power dynamic between humans that simply didn’t exist when we worked cooperatively to feed our clan or village. I love my work life so much more now that I only work with independent entrepreneurs who are my equals. For me, it’s either a one-man show (my writing business), an equal partnership (my film company), or a co-operative endeavor. Life’s too short to be a boss or be bossed around.
12. Accept that you are a voracious locust of doom.
Nail a roll of paper to the wall and write down everything you consume for a year — food, toilet paper, electricity, car fuel, movies, music, social media content, other people’s time, everything. See what I mean? Saint Augustine said that the human heart can only fully be satisfied by one thing aside from God himself: everything. All the sex, all the money, all the power, all the possessions, all the glory. All of it. Nothing short of everything could ever fully satiate the human heart. We are wired for more. Understanding this truth is the first step toward real contentment.
13. Awkward is awesome.
My best friend says that The Office gave society a beautiful gift: the ability to embrace cringe. When you meet someone new and it’s slightly weird, pretend you’re Michael Scott. Just glory and bask in the discomfort. You can awkward-proof your life by being bold: Ask for discounts. Ask for refunds. Ask for phone numbers. Ask for pay raises. Ask inappropriate questions at inappropriate times. Lather yourself in awkward and pretty soon nothing sticks.
14. Happiness isn’t the purpose of life.
Hitler really was following his bliss by offing millions of Jews. I’m sure Jeffrey Dahmer genuinely enjoyed the taste of human flesh. Bernie Madoff seemed content to bilk charities for decades. Happiness isn’t the purpose of life. It’s not even in the top ten. Happiness is a seasonal fruit, not a foundational root. Find firm and fertile ground.
15. There is no ugly.
My grandpa re-proposed to my grandma on their fiftieth wedding anniversary and called her the most beautiful woman he’s ever known. Old wrinkly grandma? Yes. Because we choose our definition of beauty through our thoughts, disciplines, habits, and patterns, be they conscious or otherwise.
16. We are what we consume.
The statistical average American is a walking bodybag of sugar, alcohol, caffeine, porn, pills, and digital stimulus. Imagine how different life would be if our only inputs were nature, sleep, sunlight, organic food, and embodied human interaction? Guard your inputs carefully.
17. We’re going to die quite soon.
Make sure you live first. Practicing memento mori will help.
18. Fame is poison.
One in four Gen Zers thinks they’ll be famous by age 25. One in 3.9999999 Gen Zers are going to have a miserably disappointing life. Why do people desire the attention of strangers? Because we all need to love and be loved, to know and be known, but are too afraid to risk personal heartbreak to seek it out. Attention is not affection. Influence is not intimacy.
19. Boomers are to blame for half our troubles.
The Me Generation took a free ride at the planet’s expense and are hellbent on taking the rest of it with them. They’re statistically low on empathy — blame the lead, asbestos, and hairspray if you must — but at least acknowledge the reality that life is hard for everyone, and no one has it easier.
20. Children are dope.
Kids are the blood transfusion in our sick system. We need to stop manipulating, brainwashing, colonizing, and propagandizing them, and learn from them instead.
21. It doesn’t have to hurt.
Joy is a choice.
22. Watch comedy before calls and meetings.
Five minutes of gut-busting laughter will prime you for even the most tedious conference call. Your co-workers and customers all have tough lives like everybody else, so brighten their day by pre-brightening your own.
23. No ragrets.
Tattoo it on your neck. Most people play it far too safe. Instead: optimize your life for the least number of regrets and the most amount of selfless contribution.
24. There are better ways to vote.
I’ve manned several local voting stations, and I’ve also hob-nobbed with politicians in Canada, America, and the UK. The reality is that they don’t work for us. They work for their corporate sponsors and private interests. Democracy isn’t dead. It just hasn’t happened yet, with all attempts to date being stillborn or aborted. Democracy = one voice one vote. Athens wasn’t a democracy — women, slaves, and tenants had zero say. America isn’t a democracy either — no representative system is, because it’s far too easy for private interests to buy politicians. The charade of voting is illusory. All elections are sham elections. So what to do? Vote with your money and time and attention. One sham vote every four years versus tens of thousands of dollar-votes each year? It’s a no-brainer. My wife and I haven’t stepped foot in a Walmart in more than a decade because thousands of its suppliers are based in China, the billionaire heirs are anti-democratic tax-avoiders, and they treat their employees like indentured servants. Vote for pro-democracy third-party candidates if you must — just understand the game, and vote in the ways that actually matter.
25. Everything easy has already been done.
So run a little further. And if it hasn’t been done, it won’t be as easy as it appears. The question to ask is: what’s been standing in the way this whole time? Achievement is all about knocking down obstacles. Just make sure what’s on the other side is rightly worth the effort.
26. Broccoli still tastes terrible.
But you’re not a child anymore. Adults do hard things.
Discipline is great, but it’s also subject to the law of diminishing returns. Life is just too dynamic to schedule with military precision. Free yourself from the tyranny of “only people who wake up at 5 AM are successful.” All hours are not created equal. It depends on your sleep drive and chronotype. Know yourself. Unapologetically get more sleep, then do your best work at your best time in your best state.
28. “Freedom” isn’t freedom.
America wasn’t founded on freedom. America was founded on violent autonomy. The ancient Greeks had an entirely different definition of freedom: it was the ability to choose the right regardless of circumstance.
“We talk about freedom all the time, but we’ve stopped talking about freedom a long time ago. Now we’re talking about autonomy. Freedom is different than autonomy. Freedom has boundaries. Truth is one of those boundaries. And morality is one of those boundaries. Autonomy is the ability to do whatever you want whenever you want in whatever way you want. The problem is this: If I’m autonomous and another person is autonomous, and I have preferences and those matter more than the truth, and that person has preferences and their preferences matter more than the truth, when two autonomous preference-seeking beings come together and their preferences don’t match, who is going to win? If truth is on the bottom shelf, truth won’t decide. What will decide will be power. And isn’t it ironic that in our quest for “freedom”, someone gets enslaved?” — Abdu Murray
29. The Marines were right: slow is smooth, smooth is fast.
As teenagers, my friend Tyler and I were in a hurry to get somewhere quickly so we drove 120+ miles per hour for forty-five straight minutes before nearly crashing when the speed burned a footlong gash through the tire. By the time we replaced it with a spare, we were late to our destination by more than an hour. But nevermind driving. Pump the life-brakes sometimes, or at least, let off the gas. You might get there faster, with less wear-and-tear on the engine.
30. The quest for wealth is destroying life.
We’ve commodified land, water, shelter, clothing, art, time, and nearly everything else. Very little remains, and it’s amassing into fewer hands. We need a shared global vision. My invented word for it is benevitae: the sustainable flourishing of all creation. Our collective goal should be socioenviroeconomic sustainability. Where to start? We’d do well to let biology determine ecological sustainability and real democracy to determine economic fairness. Our current trajectory is worse than the Space Shuttle Challenger.
31. Most “leaders” aren’t leaders.
Celebrities, politicians, and book-hocking business gurus all call themselves leaders. They’re not. Real leadership is influence that serves. True leaders are selfless and servant-hearted. They put the best interests of others ahead of their own. Politics and media, by comparison, attracts sociopaths like flies to firelight. Never give power to those who seek it. Nearly everyone worth following is dead.
32. Divide-and-conquer is a business model.
Near the end of high school, dozen friends and I binge-watched multiple seasons of LOST in our friend Mike’s basement. It was one of the most hilarious, riotous, enjoyable experiences we had as a group. And it was the last show we ever watched together. People used to go to restaurants in large numbers, to the movies by the dozen, climbing over each other for one of the limited video game controllers, packing out our churches, cheering on our sports teams by the busload. We were almost never alone, and we were far happier. Now we order in, watch Netflix, stream Minecraft, catch the highlights, watch porn, and go to bed. It’s killing us. Resist the urge to be alone. It’s too easy, and it’s the exact opposite of what we really need. The #1 thing that’s correlated to human happiness is human togetherness.
33. Self-improvement won’t save us.
The great lie of individualist-consumerist culture is that we can improve our way to personal perfection and communal utopia. But it’s incrementalism at best. It’s just chasing infinity.
34. We know nothing +/-.
On the scale of all that is known, and all that is knowable, our individual understanding is essentially mathematically zero. The entirety of human knowledge is a rounding error. This is the beginning of humility.
35. The sun is not on fire
I was at an observatory in the Davis Mountains in Texas, and it was the first time I’d paid attention to astronomy since grade school. For three decades, I’d wrongly assumed the sun was a giant ball of flames. But there’s no fire in space because there’s no oxygen in space. (It just looks like fire because of how our eyes perceive light through the atmosphere and prism.) As I stared at the real-time image of the sun on the observatory wall, I nearly wept. The sun actually looks like a giant, boiling, grey brain. And then it hit me: I have so many assumptions to set aside and so much left to learn. So pay attention. Don’t worship the “question everything” mantra, but instead spend your life seeking truth, and wisdom, and understanding. You know what you need to do to get where you want to be.
EDIT 3 : CONGRATS TO ALL GME HOLDERS. TRUELY HONORED TO BE PART OF THE GME FAM. 🚀
Introduction
PDF VERSION HERE (20+ pages) with all the references and better quality illustrations but without updates and typo corrections. This is the FIRST VERSION of the post, but there could be more edits. I wanted to do a more extensive DD but as my exams start tomorrow I don’t have more time. If you want to take my work and extend it, please feel free to do so, just give a little shout out. FIRST AND FOREMOST, SHOUTOUT TO 🚀💎🙌 GME GANG 💎🙌 🚀, YOU’RE IN MY ❤️. This DD is just my own analysis. I put my money where my mouth is but this is definitely not advice. Do your own DD. Last thing: Some stuff might be unsourced in this post but everything is sourced in the pdf version. While it’s not impossible that I might have missed some stuff, most of the time I put the stuff that I quote from other sources in italics. My ego is not big enough to feel like reformulating other people’s ideas and even less to steal other people's ideas. All I do is just gather insightful facts, figures, ideas and analysis.
Big picture
1.1 Macroeconomic View
I will be brief here, I think everyone knows what’s up basically. Figure 1: although the USD is worth a lot less, the S&P 500 is doing alright. Thanks Jerome. Enthusiasm is the key word here as we are in an environment with a very accommodative monetary and fiscal policy (thanks for the stimulus checks). Equities and Bitcoin hit record highs thanks to positive vaccine news and the markets hope for a fiscal package. The Federal Reserve is going heavy on asset purchases, bailouts and loans. And its balance sheet is expanding as well as money supply. Interest rates are extremely low. Check for example, the Shiller PE ratio to see the enthusiasm driving the markets. On a macro-level side from the risks related to the pandemic, the only worrying signs would be the shrinking money velocity or a suddenly-rising inflation (hyperinflation is bullish for stocks but not for the real economy). That being said, we know how the FED and the government reacted to support the economy and the markets. Low interest rates and weak US dollar which is continuing to depreciate is very bullish for stocks overall. I keep the macroeconomic view very short for that GME correlation with the S&P 500 is low - about 28% over the last 6 months. Moreover despite GME’s heavy reliance on brick-and-mortar stores, GME continues to get closer to profitability even with the pandemic. If the pandemic would make the stock market to crash again during the trade, I wouldn't sell at a loss but wait a few days and then buy a LEAPS. This is my plan. Don't follow it, just make sure you have a plan in case it happens, it's important to avoid buying too much the first dip (because you might get a better price later) or worse, avoid a panic-selling and take a loss instead of tendies.
In years 3 and 4 combined, if just 5 million customers extend the subscription for two years, GameStop makes $180 million in incremental profit with zero cost involved. That's nearly a quarter of GameStop's current market cap in recurring income at 100% margin. - Justin Dopierala, “GameStop Revenue Sharing Agreement With Microsoft Shifts Sentiment.” SeekingAlpha.
2.2 Business Model and Management
Gamestop is omnichanneling into online activities according to Ryan Cohen recommendations although it doesn’t mean they will execute it perfectly this is bullish.
“GameStop needs to evolve into a technology company that delights gamers and delivers exceptional digital experiences – not remain a video game retailer that overprioritizes its brick-and-mortar footprint and stumbles around the online ecosystem.” Ryan Cohen.
The company attributes the losses this quarter to the end of the console cycle and the limited hardware and accessory availability that came with that, as well as various game delays, and an 11% reduction in its store base - partially offset by recaptured sales at other locations and online. → The company should be profitable very soondespite being priced for bankruptcy for a long time → Expectations are incrediblly low until recently, more investors are believing in the vision esp. with Ryan Cohen.
GME e-commerce sales were up 257% year-over-year.
GME reduced its selling, general, and administrative expenses by $115 million.
GME repaid $10 million in debt in Q3 2020.
GME isdiversifying sales to include more high margin itemslike PC accessories, PC monitors, etc (If I speculate, there may be partnerships with certain brands).
Focusing on loyalty programslike power ups andrebranding.
As of Feb. 2020, GameStop had 5,509 physical stores.
GME is closing unprofitable locations: they are closing 1,000 stores in Q1 2021 (by the end of March of 2021).
I’d like to quote a fellow GME gang member on this: It's no secret that brick and mortar is falling off, and if GameStop were to fight tooth and nail to remain a largely brick and mortar retailer they would go bankrupt in no time. It is also a fact that underperforming stores drain cash, which lowers net income and thus lowers earnings per share. Any store that is LOSING MONEY or is barely breaking even is keeping the stock price down because it's preventing future growth and killing net incomes. Closing underperforming stores will lead to a higher EPS and more cash that can be allocated to growth. - horny131313.
Gamestop is rebranding, and shifting to becoming the one stop video game and video game related product online retailer. While we haven't seen exactly what this will be, it is bullish to see them pivoting into other products besides just video games. Headsets, TVS, PC parts, you name it. You've seen the omnichannel memes, but we know that If they are bullshitting, Cohen will step in. Expect to see real progress made.
Some words from the last earnings:
"We anticipate, for the first time in many quarters, that the fourth quarter will includepositive year-on-year sales growth and profitability*, reflecting the introduction of* new gaming consoles*, our* elevated omni-channel capabilitiesand continuedbenefits from our cost and efficiency initiatives*, even with the potential further negative impacts on our operations due to the global COVID-19 pandemic.*" George Sherman, CEO.
Possible catalysts (from KYJELLYTIME69):
A possible new Nintendo console release in ~1-2 years
Currently distressed commercial REITs = ability to negotiate lower rent = more $$$
Likely return of inflation (debatable but money supply ballooned and we are seeing velocity pick up a bit) with JPOW promising to keep rates at 0% even when inflation comes back = bullish for all stocks, bears will get slaughtered
OG printer Yellen manning the treasury in a month + possible dem senate = more stimmy checks = more money going into GME
If sales improve and balance sheets continue improve, we might see more credit upgrades
Better sales = possible dividend reinstatement, I couldn't care less about dividends but guess who's going to be paying? The shorts lol. If Sherman had balls, he would pull an OSTK and announce a special dividend , which will actually lead to a short squeeze while wsb laughs collectively as we get meme returns from this boomer move.
2.3 The Short-Squeeze Thesis
Figure 6: Stare statistics from Oct. 2019 to Nov. 2020 In terms of metrics, the DTC (days-to-cover) actually decreases, lowering the probability to get a short-squeeze short-term. Don’t get me wrong, this DOESN’T mean that it can’t happen, the % of shares shorted is still crazy high. Days to cover: It gives investors an idea of potential future buying pressure. In the event of a rally in the stock, short sellers must buy back shares on the open market to close out their positions. Understandably, they will seek to purchase the shares back for the lowest price possible, and this urgency to get out of their positions could translate into sharp moves higher. The longer the buyback process takes, as referenced by the 'days to cover' metric, the longer the price rally may continue based solely on the need of short sellers to close their positions. Additionally, a high 'days to cover' ratio can often signal a potential short squeeze. This information can benefit a trader looking to make a quick profit by buying that company's shares ahead of the anticipated event actually coming to fruition. (Investopedia). In terms of corporate actions, here is a quote from September mentioning the hostile takeover from Ryan which would trigger a massive short-squeeze, here is the explanation: Short Squeeze Potential -If Ryan Cohen successfully negotiates a purchase price with the Board then the shareholders will have to vote on it. Unlike the proxy battle where Hestia and Permit were running a minority slate of directors, an offer to purchase GameStop would force institutions like Vanguard and Blackrock to call in their shares. By doing so, the shorts would be forced to close out their positions and GameStop would finally have the greatest short squeeze of all-time. Ironically, Cohen could use this opportunity to sell all of his shares and use the proceeds to entirely fund the acquisition of GameStop going down as the first person in history to acquire a billion dollar company... for absolutely nothing. In fact, his acquisition price would be less than zero. It will be exciting to see how it all plays out as according to Bloomberg/WSJ there are now 58 million shares short as of 8/31/2020 with only 65 million shares outstanding. If I were short, I'd be sweating bullets right now. This won't end well and will ruin many. Justin Dopierala is President and Founder of DOMO Capital. How to know when the potential short-squeeze could happen?
Massive volume in short dated calls. [...] If you have shares, DO NOT SELL COVERED CALLS FROM THEM. by doing this you make the likelihood of a squeeze decrease. - horny131313
Unwind their short position with some behind closed doors deal. A scenario like this could include: Melvin offering shares of other stocks at discounted prices in exchange for GME shares or to unload a portion of their short shares. The second party to this deal could also offer to buy GME shares for higher than market prices - horny131313
Melvin and BoA both have short positions, and are desperately trying to drive the price down. Unfortunately, it is getting harder and harder to convince people that gamestop is a failing business. They are sweating and will continue to sweat. Given the buy side volume, they could close these short positions gradually without triggering a massive squeeze, however it WILL drive the price up significantly higher than it is now. - horny131313.
2.5 What 2020 Has Taught Us?
I think at this point it is the wrong question to ask (is the stock being manipulated?). To me, the most important thing is what is the upside potential and the risks associated? Then, how to trade GME?
If you're new to gamestop, the volatility will seem scary but the shorts fight hard with this one. -10% days followed by +20% days are not unusual. - horny131313
Whether the stock is manipulated or not, MOST of the 2020 trading days were negative.
The worst daily returns were hard to handle honestly we are talking multiple worst than 14% daily drawdowns.
You could more than triple your money WITHOUT LEVERAGE.
Let’s say you bought late Apr. and sold late Aug. you could have been at -13% returns and +31% the next week if you had diamond hands. For the real diamond hands you had +147% returns the next 2 months.
Psychologically this was a hard trade for sure. But for those who had diamond hands, it was pretty amazing. If you don’t feel comfortable being at -20% or even -30% returns for months before the stock literally BLOWS UP… Reduce your position and diamond hand with a smaller size. Better to win with less than lose with a lot… TLTR: DIAMOND-HAND THIS OR DON’T TRADE THIS AT ALL.
Risks
3.1 Upside Risks
RC Ventures LLC increases its stake.
It could be VERY soon. On the 31 December 2020, someone bought 900K shares, it could be Ryan Cohen given the size of its last purchases:
This is very bullish because after the disclosure of additional buying from Cohen last time, even though it strangely took 1 full trading day for the market to pop up, GME shot up 29%.
Surprise investors with their holiday sales and/or EPS.
GME will more than likely beat earnings next quarter. I won't go into much detail into this because it is not my expertise, howeveru/Uberkikz11has done some amazing DD and has been doing so for a long time. This guy literally goes into GameStop stores to get his information. Read this:https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kh9na8/gme_4q20_financial_model/ - horny131313
RC Ventures LLC gets more than one seat on the board.
RC Ventures LLC begins a hostile takeover.
On top of its increasing stake, Ryan is supported by both a lot of small and now large investors too.
Moreover “there is a decent amount of evidence that Ryan Cohen spent the summer of 2020 hiring a badass lawyer and crafting a pretty solid plan to wrest control of a struggling Mall-based gaming retailer from its out of touch Boomer Board and CEO so he can turn it into an ecommerce juggernaut like his baby Chewy. the attorney listed on each of the 13Ds filed by RC Ventures. [...] Chris Davis, Activist Attorney Extraordinaire and His Successful Use of the Consent Solicitation to Remove Dipshit Boards/CEOs” - CPTHubbard.
Moody's Upgrades GameStop's credit rating a second time in a row
Hoping for a PR soon confirming the recent redemption of the 2021 notes. Potential credit upgrade from Moodys could come now that GME has officially redeemed 63% of their 2021 notes. If we don't get that now, we should get it in March when the entirety of the 2021 notes are retired. Debt considered investment grade and not junk is a big positive and one most overlook. - Stonksflyingup
Short sellers close a part of their position huge short position.
A major hedge fund takes a significant position on GME.
Dividend reintroduction.
3.2 Downside Risks
New short sellers open a position and current ones scale up theirs.
Momentum towards profitability dies out and the company goes bankrupt.
Honestly if you read this far you know this is extremely unlikely.
It is very unlikely for the shorts to continue to short the company especially when its credit rating is being upgraded - we will see if it keeps getting upgraded or not in March.
If the shorts get to short it more (or new short sellers open a position) it will:
Drive the stock price down (lower market cap), drive the short ratio higher making the unwinding of the short sellers even harder and as a result making the probability to have a short-squeeze VERY BIG if good events happen moving forward.
Push Ryan Cohen to accelerate its plans.
I will personally increase my share-position if it happens.
Conclusion
4.1 Prices Targets
Here is a summary of my post: When the short % of free float went from a high point (~160%) at around February 2020 to a low point (~140%) - which by the way are in absolute terms both huge numbers- the stock went up ~94% BUT most of the gain took place at 2 key moments: at the recovery of the market crash and then in late August which shows that 💎🙌-ing is key to capture most of the gains. Figure 13: GME returns from 3 Feb. 2020 to 1 Sept. 2020 Why do I say this? Because when holding the stock you could “feel” like you bled when you watch the stats:
Positive daily returns
Negative daily returns
49.3 %
50.7 %
But IT WAS IN FACT THE SHORT SELLERS WHO BLED HARD:
Best daily return
Worst daily return
23.0 %
-13.7 %
Imagine you sold GME when the -13.7% happened. You would not have captured the 94% returns. So just 💎🙌 and let those shorts go bankrupt. Table 8: PTs.
4.2 Valuations
“Wallstreetbets - GME 4Q20 Financial Model 🚀 🚀 🚀.” Reddit, www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kh9na8/gme_4q20_financial_model/. “GameStop Rips Higher as Hedgeye Pitches the Long Side of the Trade.” SeekingAlpha, 23 Dec. 2020, seekingalpha.com/news/3647009-gamestop-rips-higher-hedgeye-pitches-long-side-of-trade. Thanks for reading.
If your question isn't answered below, leave a comment and a community member will try to help! If there are any frequently asked questions missing, then please comment with that question & what the answer is. Please also feel free to improve on any of the answers below. We'll reward members who help most often with a special flair / badge to use on the sub! We'll be redirecting all simple/one liner questions to this thread in the hopes of reducing spam/repeat posts. Please report any you see under Rule 6, commonly posted question.
PC / Next-Gen / Stand-alone Questions
Q) If I buy on Rockstar Launcher, can I play with friends on Steam?
Yes, you can play with friends on PC regardless of what store they bought it from. Even Steam GTA, uses Rockstar to launch the game.
Q) Can we transfer our characters from PS4 and Xbox One to PC?
No, you cannot transfer characters to a different platform, e.g Xbox to PC. The game is cross-gen however, so if you play PS4 you can continue on PS5.
Q) If I buy a next-gen console, can I play with friends on old-gen consoles?
Yes! The game is backwards compatible on console, so you can play with friends on PS4/PS5 or XB1/XBX
Q) If I already own Red Dead Redemption 2, do I need to buy Red Dead Online again when it goes standalone?
No! Red Dead Online is still part of the RDR2 game.
Red Dead Online: General Questions
Q) What are the currencies in Red Dead Online?
Cash, the main currency in RDO that is earned through almost every activity. Gold Bars, the premium currency in RDO that can be purchased using real money. You earn a small amount of gold for completing activities online. Role Tokens, earned by levelling up in each role, used to unlock abilities & items for the five current roles.
Q) What is the Outlaw pass?
The Outlaw Pass is an in-game purchase using the premium Gold currency that allows you to earn items/rewards as you level up. Outlaw Pass are only available for a limited time and once they finish, you can't access them again.
Q) What are Daily Challenges?
Every day at 6am UTC, you are given a new list of 7 daily challenges as well as 15 role daily challenges. They can range from hunting specific animals or finding certain herbs, to completing PVP/Freeroam events. Initially, you earn 0.1 Gold per completed challenge plus a bonus if you complete all 7 regular challenges. After completing at least 1 challenge per day for 7 days, you then earn a little more gold per challenge each week before your daily challenge streak resets after 28 days. Your daily challenge streak will then reset, and you start the process again. In addition to this, there are also 3 daily challenges for each role available and you can do a max of 9 role daily challenges. Daily challenges for roles will also differ depending on your rank within each role.
Q) What are Free-roam events (role/normal)
Every 45 minutes, you'll receive an invite to a free-roam event. Free-roam events can be activities such as fishing, horse racing, archery competitions, or PVP. You earn XP + cash for completing. There are also role specific events that happen every 90 minutes, you need to be ranked up and enrolled in each role before you'll see invites for these activities. You can see the schedule for free-roam & role events here
Q) What are ability cards?
Abilities in Red Dead Online are assigned to a character through Ability Cards. These are divided into two different types. Dead Eye cards that grant abilities only active during Dead Eye, while Passive cards add abilities that are always active, no matter what you do. Passive abilities are further divided into several different categories. In Red Dead Online, it's not possible to assign all of the available abilities to the character, as there are only 4 slots available. One slot is used for a single Dead Eye card, while the remaining three slots are used for Passive abilities. Source.
Q) What are the playing styles online?
Defensive: Players in Defensive mode will be indicated by a shield icon, will take reduced damage from enemy players, cannot be lassoed, melee attacked, executed or targeted with auto-aim. Defensive players will also be excluded from being targeted in PvP-related missions such as Player Assassination. Those who attack Defensive players receive hefty penalties via the Hostility system, while players who initiate conflict while in Defensive mode will be instantly pulled out of Defensive mode and also receive similar Hostility penalties. Offensive: The Offensive playing style is set as the default and is how most players traditionally interact in Free Roam – free to engage in hostile contact with other players if you are prepared to accept the potential consequences.
Red Dead Online: Other Questions
Q) How do I dual wield?
At rank 25, you can buy an off-hand holster which allows you to equip a second handgun.
Q) How do I change appearance
Press Left on the D Pad (Keyboard TBC) to bring the Online menu up > Scroll down to Online Options > Scroll down to Change Appearance
Q) How do I setup camp
Press Left on the D Pad (Keyboard TBC) to bring the Online menu up > Scroll down to camp options > Choose location for camp Camps can be used to access wardrobes, collect items you've ordered via the catalog, craft & cook and fast travel if upgraded. A small camp is suitable for 1-4 posse members and costs $1 per in game day. A large camp is suitable for 1-7 posse members and costs $2 per in game day.
Q) Where is the gun locker?
You unlock it through the trader role, then purchase it at Wilderness Outfitters in camp, and then it appears at your specific tent in camp.
Q) How do I buy a dog?
At your camp, head to Cripps and access Wilderness Outfitters, from there you can select the dog option.
Q) What can dogs be used for?
Looking cool at your camp and warning you of camp raids when you unlock the perk. Not really much else. (They're not companions like Dogmeat from Fallout 4)
Q) I saw an item, but can't find it on PC or Xbox One.
Some items are exclusive to PS4, so you may see things promoted by Rockstar that aren't yet available on your platform or it may be from an old Outlaw Pass.
Get started as a Bounty Hunter when you meet the Legendary Bounty Hunter in Rhodes and purchase the Bounty Hunter License. The standard cost is 15 Gold Bars. Licensed Bounty Hunters can pick up work by visiting bounty boards located near law offices, post offices and train stations across the states. There is no shortage of criminals to be dealt with and the targets range in difficulty, from lone low-level petty thieves to notorious outlaws with armed protection details and a watchful eye. Taking on an armed gang or bringing multiple targets to justice is made easier with the help of a Posse, who will all earn a cut of the final bounty. And keep in mind, bringing in targets alive will yield a greater reward. Reaching Bounty Hunter Rank 12 will open up the opportunity to take down other players with high bounties of $20 or more. Bounty Hunters will be notified through an invite about the opportunity to hunt down the wanted player when they’re nearby in a structured pursuit. The wanted player must escape (or surrender) within the allotted time and if captured, they’ll also have opportunities to escape and flee. If the Bounty Hunter brings the target in alive, they’ll receive an award while the criminal serves time.
Q) What are legendary bounties?
Legendary bounties are high-tier bounties, they usually involve a mini-story/cut scene. They're also much tougher than a regular bounty. There are 10 legendary bounties that can be access as part of the Bounty Hunter role and 3 that can be accessed (when they've all released) by purchasing the Prestigious Bounty Hunter upgrade.
Trader Role
Q) What is the Trader role?
our trusted camp companion, Cripps, has long dreamed of starting a trading outpost and you’re going to help him make it happen - by becoming a partner in the fledgling Cripps Trading Company. Combining Cripps’ lifetime of working with animal materials and your skills at hunting and frontier security, you’ll have the perfect ingredients to develop a thriving business. Once you agree to help Cripps, you can start turning your camp into a business by sourcing items for Cripps to convert into sellable goods. An investment of 15 Gold Bars to purchase a Butcher’s Table will get your business up and running. Once you’re operational, you’ll provide Cripps with Materials through hunting animals – pristine pelts and carcasses will provide better yields. You’ll also take on Resupply Missions to acquire additional necessities through less than savory tactics. Once supplied, Cripps will begin turning the materials into sellable goods, which can then be sent out on low-risk local deliveries for payment or across greater distances for a premium. Improve your hunting yields with a Hunting Wagon for larger hauls or upgrade your Delivery Wagons for larger sales. As business flourishes and your presence becomes known in the market, your competition may grow jealous of your success, so keep an eye out for raids on your camp. As your trade grows, you might consider purchasing a camp dog from Wilderness Outfitters. Not only are dogs great camp companions for all players, but a Trader of sufficient rank can teach their dog to warn of incoming attacks.
Q) Can I skip the medium wagon?
No, you need to buy the medium wagon, then the large wagon.
Q) What can I sell to Cripps?
You can sell carcasses & small animals (e.g squirrels). Along with some animal parts, e.g feathers. Cripps does not accept meat, fish or skinned carcasses.
Q) How long does it take Cripps to make goods after resupplying?
Cripps requires materials and supplies to produce goods. You give him materials by donating carcasses and pelts. He uses two units of materials to produce one good. You either buy supplies or obtain them through resupply missions. Either way, that gives enough supplies to produce 25 goods. As long as both materials and supplies are available, Cripps produces 1 good every 2 minutes (1 in-game hour).
Collector Role
Q) What is the Collector role?
Seek out the mysterious travelling saleswoman Madam Nazar to acquire the Collector’s Bag and get started on the path of the Collector. It will cost 15 Gold Bars for access to collecting and selling rare items. With Madam Nazar’s help, you will be able to explore the world finding valuable treasures, whether they’re discarded Tarot cards in abandoned camps, buried treasures unearthed with your trusty shovel, hidden family heirlooms and more. Collect individual pieces and sell them off directly to Madam Nazar or collect entire sets for even more valuable sales. As you progress, you’ll unlock enhanced searching skills; more useful tools like a metal detector; benefits like increased carrying capacities; the ability for your horse to directly pluck and pass herbs to you while mounted, and more.
Q) Where is Madam Nazar?
Madam Nazar can be located by completing a map/collection for her. Her location is posted daily on /RedDeadDailies - She changes location at 6am UTC time each day. You can also find her using https://madamnazar.io/
Q) Who is Madam Nazar?
Madam Nazar is the Collector role vendor, you can obtain maps, cosmetics & other items such as the shovel from her.
Q) Why is Madam Nazar?
...
Q) Where do you buy a shovel?
From Madam Nazar, it costs $350. If you need help finding her, check /RedDeadDailies
Q) Where do you buy a metal detector?
From Madam Nazar, it unlocks at level 5 and costs $700. If you need help finding her, check /RedDeadDailies
Q) Can you sell collector items individually or does it need to be a full set?
Yes, however you get far less money than you would if you sold a full collection
Q) Can you only have one collector map active?
Yes, if you try to open a second map, it may auto-close and almost looks like a bug, however, you should only try and activate one at any given time.
Moonshiner Role:
Q) I already met Maggie but I didn't buy a shack, now I can't find how to buy the shack?
In the options menu (left on the D-pad, or L on PC), select "Camp & Properties" → "Moonshine Shack" → "Shack Location".
Will be expanded upon soon...
Naturalist Role
Will be updated soon...
Useful Red Dead Online Resources
/RedDeadDailies - A subreddit dedicated to sharing daily challenge information
/RedDeadCollector - The best place to ask for support with any locations for collector items.
This thread will be posted at 6am UTC every Monday. We'll aim to update & add any additional questions in time for the new thread being posted each week.
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