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Timeline of Trump's Russia Connections from KGB Cultivation to United State President

The Russia Mafia is part and parcel of Russian intelligence. Russia is a mafia state. That is not a metaphor. Putin is head of the Mafia. So the fact that they have deep ties to Donald Trump is deeply disturbing. Trump conducted FIVE completely private meetings and conferences with Putin, and has gone to great lengths to prevent literally anyone, even people in his administration, from learning what was discussed.
According to an ex-KGB spy...Russia has been cultivating Trump as an asset for 40 years.
Trump was first compromised by the Russians in the 80s. In 1984, the Russian Mafia began to use Trump real estate to launder money.
In 1984, David Bogatin — a convicted Russian mobster and close ally of Semion Mogilevich, a major Russian mob boss — met with Trump in Trump Tower right after it opened. Bogatin bought five condos from Trump at that meeting. Those condos were later seized by the government, which claimed they were used to launder money for the Russian mob.
“During the ’80s and ’90s, we in the U.S. government repeatedly saw a pattern by which criminals would use condos and high-rises to launder money,” says Jonathan Winer, a deputy assistant secretary of state for international law enforcement in the Clinton administration. “It didn’t matter that you paid too much, because the real estate values would rise, and it was a way of turning dirty money into clean money. It was done very systematically, and it explained why there are so many high-rises where the units were sold but no one is living in them.”
When Trump Tower was built, as David Cay Johnston reports in The Making of Donald Trump, it was only the second high-rise in New York that accepted anonymous buyers.
In 1987, the Soviet ambassador to the United Nations, Yuri Dubinin, arranged for Trump and his then-wife, Ivana, to enjoy an all-expense-paid trip to Moscow to consider business prospects.
A short while later he made his first call for the dismantling of the NATO alliance. Which would benefit Russia.
At the beginning of 1990 Donald Trump owed a combined $4 billion to more than 70 banks, with $800 million personally guaranteed by his own assets, according to Alan Pomerantz, a lawyer whose team led negotiations between Trump and 72 banks to restructure Trump’s loans. Pomerantz was hired by Citibank.
Interview with Pomerantz
Trump agreed to pay the bond lenders 14% interest, roughly 50% more than he had projected, to raise $675 million. It was the biggest gamble of his career. Trump could not keep pace with his debts. Six months later, the Taj defaulted on interest payments to bondholders as his finances went into a tailspin.
In July 1991, Trump’s Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy.
So he bankrupted a casino? What about Ru...
The Trump Taj Mahal casino broke anti-money laundering rules 106 times in its first year and a half of operation in the early 1990s, according to the IRS in a 1998 settlement agreement.
The casino repeatedly failed to properly report gamblers who cashed out $10,000 or more in a single day, the government said."The violations date back to a time when the Taj Mahal was the preferred gambling spot for Russian mobsters living in Brooklyn, according to federal investigators who tracked organized crime in New York City. They also occurred at a time when the Taj Mahal casino was short on cash and on the verge of bankruptcy."
....ssia
So by the mid 1990s Trump was then at a low point of his career. He defaulted on his debts to a number of large Wall Street banks and was overleveraged. Two of his businesses had declared bankruptcy, the Trump Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City and the Plaza Hotel in New York, and the money pit that was the Trump Shuttle went out of business in 1992. Trump companies would ultimately declare Chapter 11 bankruptcy two more times.
Trump was $4 billion in debt after his Atlantic City casinos went bankrupt. No U.S. bank would touch him. Then foreign money began flowing in through Deutsche Bank.
The extremely controversial Deutsche Bank. The Nazi financing, Auschwitz building, law violating, customer misleading, international currency markets manipulating, interest rate rigging, Iran & others sanctions violating, Russian money laundering, salvation of Donald J. Trump.
The agreeing to a $7.2 billion settlement with with the U.S. Department of Justice over its sale and pooling of toxic mortgage securities and causing the 2008 financial crisis bank.
The appears to have facilitated more than half of the $2 trillion of suspicious transactions that were flagged to the U.S. government over nearly two decades bank.
The embroiled in a $20b money-laundering operation, dubbed the Global Laundromat. The launders money for Russian criminals with links to the Kremlin, the old KGB and its main successor, the FSB bank.
That bank.
Three minute video detailing Trump's debts and relationship with Deutsche Bank
In 1998, Russia defaulted on $40 billion in debt, causing the ruble to plummet and Russian banks to close. The ensuing financial panic sent the country’s oligarchs and mobsters scrambling to find a safe place to put their money. That October, just two months after the Russian economy went into a tailspin, Trump broke ground on his biggest project yet.
Directly across the street from the United Nations building.
Russian Linked-Deutsche Bank arranged to lend hundreds of millions of dollars to finance Trump’s construction of a skyscraper next to the United Nations.
Construction got underway in 1999.
Units on the tower’s priciest floors were quickly snatched up by individual buyers from the former Soviet Union, or by limited liability companies connected to Russia. “We had big buyers from Russia and Ukraine and Kazakhstan,” sales agent Debra Stotts told Bloomberg. After Trump World Tower opened, Sotheby’s International Realty teamed up with a Russian real estate company to make a big sales push for the property in Russia. The “tower full of oligarchs,” as Bloomberg called it, became a model for Trump’s projects going forward. All he needed to do, it seemed, was slap the Trump name on a big building, and high-dollar customers from Russia and the former Soviet republics were guaranteed to come rushing in.
New York City real estate broker Dolly Lenz told USA TODAY she sold about 65 condos in Trump World at 845 U.N. Plaza in Manhattan to Russian investors, many of whom sought personal meetings with Trump for his business expertise.
“I had contacts in Moscow looking to invest in the United States,” Lenz said. “They all wanted to meet Donald. They became very friendly.”Lots of Russian and Eastern European Friends. Investing lots of money. And not only in New York.
Miami is known as a hotspot of the ultra-wealthy looking to launder their money from overseas. Thousands of Russians have moved to Sunny Isles. Hundreds of ultra-wealthy former Soviet citizens bought Trump properties in South Florida. People with really disturbing histories investing millions and millions of dollars. Igor Zorin offers a story with all the weirdness modern Miami has to offer: Russian cash, a motorcycle club named after Russia’s powerful special forces and a condo tower branded by Donald Trump.
Thanks to its heavy Russian presence, Sunny Isles has acquired the nickname “Little Moscow.”
From an interview with a Miami based Siberian-born realtor... “Miami is a brand,” she told me as we sat on a sofa in the building’s huge foyer. “People from all over the world want property here.” Developers were only putting up luxury properties because they “know that the crisis has not affected people with money,”
Most of her clients are Russian—there are now three direct flights per week between Moscow and Miami—and increasing numbers are moving to Florida after spending a few years in London first. “It’s a money center, and it’s a lot easier to get your money there than directly to the US, because of laws and tax issues,” she said. “But after your money has been in London for a while, you can move it to other places more easily.”
In the 2000s, Trump turned to licensing deals and trademarks, collecting a fee from other companies using the Trump name. This has allowed Trump to distance himself from properties or projects that have failed or encountered legal trouble and provided a convenient workaround to help launch projects, especially in Russia and former Soviet states, which bear Trump’s name but otherwise little relation to his general business.
Enter Bayrock Group, a development company and key Trump real estate partner during the 2000s. Bayrock partnered with Trump in 2005 and invested an incredible amount of money into the Trump organization under the legal guise of licensing his name and property management. Bayrock was run by two investors:
Felix Sater, a Russian-born mobster who served a year in prison for stabbing a man in the face with a margarita glass during a bar fight, pleaded guilty to racketeering as part of a mafia-driven "pump-and-dump" stock fraud and then escaped jail time by becoming a highly valued government informant. He was an important figure at Bayrock, notably with the Trump SoHo hotel-condominium in New York City, and has said under oath that he represented Trump in Russia and subsequently billed himself as a senior Trump advisor, with an office in Trump Tower. He is a convict who became a govt cooperator for the FBI and other agencies. He grew up with Micahel Cohen --Trump's disbarred former "fixer" attorney. Cohen's family owned El Caribe, which was a mob hangout for the Russian Mafia in Brooklyn. Cohen had ties to Ukrainian oligarchs through his in-laws and his brother's in-laws. Felix Sater's father had ties to the Russian mob.
Tevfik Arif, a Kazakhstan-born former "Soviet official" who drew on bottomless sources of money from the former Soviet republic. Arif graduated from the Moscow Institute of Trade and Economics and worked as a Soviet trade and commerce official for 17 years before moving to New York and founding Bayrock. In 2002, after meeting Trump, he moved Bayrock’s offices to Trump Tower, where he and his staff of Russian émigrés set up shop on the twenty-fourth floor.
Arif was offering him a 20 to 25 percent cut on his overseas projects, he said, not to mention management fees. Trump said in the deposition that Bayrock’s Tevfik Arif “brought the people up from Moscow to meet with me,”and that he was teaming with Bayrock on other planned ventures in Moscow. The only Russians who are likely have the resources and political connections to sponsor such ambitious international deals are the corrupt oligarchs.
In 2005, Trump told The Miami Herald “The name has brought a cachet to certain areas that wouldn’t have had it,” Dezer said Trump’s name put Sunny Isles Beach on the map as a classy destination — and the Trump-branded condo units sold “10 to 20 percent higher than any of our competitors, and at a faster pace.”“We didn’t have any foreclosures or anything, despite the crisis.”
In a 2007 deposition that was part of his unsuccessful defamation lawsuit against reporter Timothy O’Brien Trump testified "that Bayrock was working their international contacts to complete Trump/Bayrock deals in Russia, Ukraine, and Poland. He testified that “Bayrock knew the investors” and that “this was going to be the Trump International Hotel and Tower in Moscow, Kiev, Istanbul, et cetera, and Warsaw, Poland.”
In 2008, Donald Trump Jr. gave the following statement to the “Bridging U.S. and Emerging Markets Real Estate” conference in Manhattan: “[I]n terms of high-end product influx into the United States, Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets; say in Dubai, and certainly with our project in SoHo and anywhere in New York. We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia.”
In July 2008, Trump sold a mansion in Palm Beach for $95 million to Dmitry Rybolovlev, a Russian oligarch. Trump had purchased it four years earlier for $41.35 million. The sale price was nearly $54 million more than Trump had paid for the property. This was the height of the recession when all other property had plummeted in value. Must be nice to have so many Russian oligarchs interested in giving you money.
In 2013, Trump went to Russia for the Miss Universe pageant “financed in part by the development company of a Russian billionaire Aras Agalarov.… a Putin ally who is sometimes called the ‘Trump of Russia’ because of his tendency to put his own name on his buildings.” He met with many oligarchs. Timeline of events. Flight records show how long he was there.
Video interview in Moscow where Trump says "...China wanted it this year. And Russia wanted it very badly." I bet they did.
Also in 2013, Federal agents busted an “ultraexclusive, high-stakes, illegal poker ring” run by Russian gangsters out of Trump Tower. They operated card games, illegal gambling websites, and a global sports book and laundered more than $100 million. A condo directly below one owned by Trump reportedly served as HQ for a “sophisticated money-laundering scheme” connected to Semion Mogilevich.
In 2014, Eric Trump told golf reporter James Dodson that the Trump Organization was able to expand during the financial crisis because “We don’t rely on American banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia. I said, 'Really?' And he said, 'Oh, yeah. We’ve got some guys that really, really love golf, and they’re really invested in our programmes. We just go there all the time.’”
A 2015 racketeering case against Bayrock, Sater, and Arif, and others, alleged that: “for most of its existence it [Bayrock] was substantially and covertly mob-owned and operated,” engaging “in a pattern of continuous, related crimes, including mail, wire, and bank fraud; tax evasion; money laundering; conspiracy; bribery; extortion; and embezzlement.” Although the lawsuit does not allege complicity by Trump, it claims that Bayrock exploited its joint ventures with Trump as a conduit for laundering money and evading taxes. The lawsuit cites as a “Concrete example of their crime, Trump SoHo, [which] stands 454 feet tall at Spring and Varick, where it also stands monument to spectacularly corrupt money-laundering and tax evasion.”
In 2016, the Trump Presidential Campaign was helped by Russia.
(I don't have the presidential term sourced yet. I'll post an update when I do. I'm sure you probably remember most of them...sigh. TY to the main posters here. Obviously I'm standing on your shoulders having taken a lot of the information or articles from here).
submitted by Well__Sourced to Keep_Track [link] [comments]

$BFT (FoleyTrasimene II), SPAC to become Paysafe

I think that this one has been under-reported somewhat but since I work in the online gaming industry, it showed up on my radar.
This SPAC has reached a deal to bring back Paysafe to the market, at a valuation of 9 billions.
What is Paysafe?
Paysafe Group has been consolidating the market for e-wallets and alternative payment methods for years and went back into private hands 3 years ago.
They regroup all the main e-wallets used for online gambling and Forex: Skrill and Neteller and also prepaid cards (to be bought in 7/11 and the like) under the Paysafe brand.
Why e-wallets matter in the online gambling market?
E-wallets and prepaid cards represent about 25% of the volume of payments in online gambling in UK, Europe, Canada and Skrill/NetellePaysafe are by far the biggest names in this field.
https://www.fisglobal.com/-/media/fisglobal/WorldPay/Docs/Miscellaneous/Gaming%20Payments%20Report%202019
Neteller and Moneybookers (as Skrill was known then) were dominating the US alternative payment methods gambling market in the US before they got pushed out in 2007. They still have high name recognition amongst the gambling crowd and web searches in the US for these brands remain high, even if they can’t process much transactions there for gambling since many states don’t have online gambling legislations yet, or very limiting ones.
E-Wallets are often the preferred payment method for gamblers since it allows to move money from one operator site to the other quickly and cheaply. They can also use it as a bankroll segregated from their main bank account/CC and on top of that, Paysafe offers loyalty benefits to users based on their transaction volumes. As such, their user retention is very good.
The prepaid card business is also a major factor for this stock attractiveness. Prepaid cards to be bought in gas stations or the like are often preferred by gamblers who want to strictly control their gambling or those who don’t have access to a CC (maybe because they gambled too much) or those that prefer cash transactions out of privacy concerns…
Why not invest in the gambling operators instead?
Operators such as Draftkings or legacy casino groups are going to make money but the regulatory environment is harsh and gambling taxes are crazy in some states and might keep going higher.
Moreover, the regulations being so fragmented, many smaller operators push in certain states and not others and the competitive environment is broad. Remember that gambling is a fungible good. There is no difference in the casino games that the operators can offer (same game studios, same rules) and aside from bonuses and the margins on sports bets, the only differentiation is in branding, which is a thin moat on a product that often leaves the users disgruntled (losers).
Payments on the other hand are not taxed for their relationship to gambling and there are far fewer players.
How does Paysafe make money?
The margins on their products are pretty high and Paysafe charges both sides of the transaction in the case of the e-wallets and the merchant side in the case of the prepaid cards.
For the use of Skrill and Neteller wallets, Paysafe charges on average 4.5% on the merchant side for deposits and a whooping 9.9% on deposits with prepaid cards… Larger merchants certainly can negotiate these rates down but this is still a healthy fee, much higher than credit card processors.
In markets where Paysafe has established domination they charge a small deposit fee to the user and a withdrawal fee.
For now, they charge no fees to the US users in a bid to grow market share surely but that will probably end some day.
Growth opportunity:
For now, the US online gambling market is still very limited. Most states have not legalized, the majority of those who have legalized only did so for sports betting and then a handful have legalized online casino gaming (where the real money is made). The opening up of the market is bound to grow as states need money and more of the world moves online.
https://www.playusa.com/us/
It is estimated that the online gaming market could reach 25 billions a year in the US in a few years time and 150 billions worldwide.
https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/online-gambling-market#:~:text=The%20North%20America%20online%20gambling,CAGR%20during%20the%20forecast%20period.
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-online-gambling-market
These revenues do not equal to deposited amounts, they equal net deposits (deposits minus withdrawals). The hold % of online casinos can be anywhere between 50% and 80% depending on how degenerate the market is in a given country but we can conservatively assume 60%.
This means that deposits volume in the US alone would reach about 40 billions, Europe about 50 Billions and worldwide 250 billions.
That should give Paysafe around 8-10 billions in transaction volume per year in the US alone , another 10-12 billions in Europe and conservatively, another 20 billions worldwide.
Valuation estimates:
Rough estimates are therefore revenues of about 1.5 billions per year for Paysafe group in a few years for gambling alone.
Paysafe claims 1.5 billions in revenues total projected for 2021, with only a third from gambling.
Even assuming no growth from the other verticals, this means that the total revenues of Paysafe should grow by 66% with gambling alone in the next 5 years or so.
Pysafe is investing a lot into expansion in other areas than gambling, notably video-gaming and remittance so assuming they don’t fuck it up completely, we are likely to see a 3 billions dollar in revenues in the next 5 years.
Using Paypal’s marketcap vs revenues, that would mean 50 billions in marketcap for Paysafe… Of course, Paypal is ingrained deeply in the whole of ecommerce and Paysafe is more specialized in gambling which might be shakier and herefore command a lower valuation.
The deal details are not fully known but it looks like a current valuation of 9 billions for Paysafe Group upon listing.
Based on my estimates, the marketcap could reach 50 billions in a few years time, one US market for gambling fully opens.
$BFT is trading at a 25% premium right now, therefore the estimate is 4x on investment over a few years.
Obviously you retards are not the most patient bunch but I believe the stock will jump when it morphs and so keep an eye out for the options.
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[Scottish Football] How one of Scotland's biggest clubs was liquidated and had to start all over again

Obviously this isn't set in England, but spiritually this piece is within my English Football series. The first six episodes covered Nottingham Forest's 21st century woes, the dickpic that consigned Notts County to the non-league, a reignited rivalry between Derby County and Leeds United, Stoke City's legendary shithouse era, the English Golden Generation of the 00s descending into farce, and Wimbledon FC's controversial relocation to Milton Keynes
This spin-off piece follows on from the main question raised by the Wimbledon FC/MK Dons saga. When does a club stop being a club? Is it the legal entity or something rather more intangible? These were questions posed with regards to one of the titans of Scottish football earlier this decade.
Background - The Establishment Club
Rangers FC has long cultivated an image as Scotland's 'establishment club', it isn't just a sports team, but an institution that embodies a particular way of living and worldview. Alongside other institutions like the Church of Scotland, the club is perceived as embodying traditional and small-C conservative Scottish values. Alongside Celtic (more on them in a bit) Rangers have dominated Scottish football since the league started. No club other than the two Glaswegian sides has won the league since 1985. Rangers have 54 league titles, Celtic have 51. The joint 3rd best sides (Aberdeen and the Edinburgh pair Hearts and Hibernian) have just four a piece. And yet as a legal entity the club ceased to exist in 2012. What happened? Does Rangers FC still exist?
It would be impossible to tell this tale without telling the tale of the Old Firm and the profound political, cultural, and religious divides involved. Glasgow's two largest clubs have a rivalry that defies comparison to anything in the rest of Scotland or in England. Essentially Rangers FC and its supporters represent Protestantism and British Unionism, while Celtic FC are considered to be aligned with Catholicism and Irish Nationalism. When the two sides meet, the Scottish saltire is rarely flown by supporters. Rangers supporters prefer the Union Jack or Ulster Banner, Celtic fans are likely to fly Irish tricolours. It is as if somebody took the socio-cultural conflict of Northern Ireland and transplanted it into a football ground.
Which is sort of what happened. Ultimately a big factor was migration to Glasgow in the early 20th century - Irish Catholics in Glasgow set up Celtic FC as their club, while Protestants from Northern Ireland (who are historically of largely Scottish extraction) who worked in the shipyards of the Clyde came to adopt Rangers which was located near the shipbuilding areas. Local Scots, being generally Protestant, inclined to support Rangers and many would have shared the religious and political feelings of the newcomers from Northern Ireland. This has meant that at matches both clubs have sections of support who chant about the Northern Irish conflict - some Rangers fans have a 'songbook' including the Loyalist anthem The Sash (which commemorates King William III, the Dutchman invited to become King of England and Scotland who defeated a Catholic army at the Boyne in 1690), while Celtic fans might sing in support of the Irish Republican Army. This involves by no means the majority of supporters, but it is important in setting the atmosphere at games.
Rangers FC had until the late 1980s an alleged policy of not signing any player known to be a Catholic. This led legendary Celtic manager Jock Stein to joke that if offered a Catholic or a Protestant to sign for Celtic, he would sign the Protestant in the knowledge that Rangers would never sign the Catholic. I cannot find evidence of any player ever transferring directly between Celtic and Rangers in the postwar era, with the low number of players who have turned out for both having had a 3rd club in between. Another example of the intensity is the way in which the clubs traditionally share shirt sponsors. This sounds innocuous, but the only way to sponsor one of the clubs without triggering a mass boycott by the other supporters was to simply sponsor both.
No other football rivalry in Britain has a dynamic like this (Liverpool and Everton did to a far lesser extent before about the 1960s, but sectarianism largely died out there decades ago), even in the days when hooliganism was a serious blight on English football it never quite reached the sort of scenes on display at the 1980 Scottish Cup Final.
Which club is the 'biggest'? It is impossible to say. Rangers have had more League titles, but Celtic being the first British club to win a European Cup in 1967 is a fairly potent trump card. What is without a doubt is that they are the two best supported Scottish clubs and their rivalry is possibly like no other.
Chasing the Rainbow
Avid readers of this series will notice a theme. The 1990s were a boom time for football and everyone involved in the sport. TV revenue started to really take off, as did the prizes for winning European competitions. Many clubs sought to capitalise on the windfall and Rangers were no exception.
Their chairman, Sir David Murray, had become one of Scotland's weathiest businessmen by leveraging debts against future revenue. He spent big on Rangers in the hope that they would win a major European trophy and repay his investment. Top players like Paul Gascoigne came to Rangers where before it was fairly rare for big name players from other leagues to move to Scotland. Domestically his investments paid off, from 1989-97 Rangers won nine League titles in a row, equalling the record set by Jock Stein's great Celtic side between 1966-74.
Unfortunately this did not translate to the windfall a Champion's League win would have given. While Murray was bankrolling Rangers, other clubs around Europe were likewise chasing the new massive financial prizes. Rangers came close to getting past the group stage of the new Champion's League format in 1992-93, but no Scottish club would enter a Champion's League knockout round until Rangers do so in 2005-06.
The debts mounted and Murray sought ways to manage the debts and hedge them against future revenue anticipated from TV fees and European prize money. He allowed the Bank of Scotland to buy a stake in the club with a mortgage allowing them to recover their losses in the event of the club defaulting on its repayments. Nothing to worry about, surely? David Murray had become a wildly successful businessman by effectively managing credit lines and debt against future income to fund expansion.
But a far bigger problem was just three small letters.
EBT
Put simply, Employee Benefit Trusts are a way of not paying tax, it was legal in some cases at the time but is generally illegal now.
Murray sought, from 2000, to pay his players through EBTs. This meant that they would be able to offer high net wages to players while cutting tax costs. In Britain most employees have all their tax payments deducted by the employer, so schemes like this and ones where employees are paid in dividends are a way of essentially not paying tax.
By 2010 HMRC had begun to investigate the case, concluding that Rangers may have evaded £49m in taxes, a vast amount for a club already overleveraged in debt in a league not known for being particularly wealthy.
By about 2008 Murray had had enough of Rangers and was looking to sell up. He had gambled and lost huge amounts of money on the club, which was now saddled with huge amounts of debt. The prospect of paying £49m to HMRC if the courts ruled against Rangers deterred any serious buyer and it took some years for a buyer to emerge. Another serious issue was the sheer amount of debt Rangers had to Lloyds (who had taken over the Bank of Scotland), with fans in 2009 threatening a boycott of the banking chain if the bank called in its debts.
Would a buyer emerge and save Rangers from this predicament?
Well, a buyer would emerge in 2011. Not the other bit, sadly.
Enter Craig Whyte
Craig Whyte had once been Scotland's youngest millionaire as a venture capitalist. He bought the club for £1 from Murray but desperately needed to leverage some funds to settle the Lloyds debt, so he borrowed a cool £26.7m against future season ticket sales. This on the face of it should have set alarm bells, even the biggest clubs don't make huge amounts of money on matchday tickets in relation to their massive costs.
Whyte also indulged in a bit of tax fiddling. But rather than setting up an avoidance mechanism and letting the lawyers fight it out, he just stopped sending Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs the income tax payments for the club players and staff. Definitely not the sophistication of Murray.
Matters only got worse. In early 2012 BBC Scotland aired a BAFTA-winning documentary about Whyte and Rangers, which revealed that Whyte had been once banned from working as a company director for seven years. The Scottish Football Association agreed, Whyte was not a 'Fit and Proper' person to own a football club.
At about this time Rangers entered administration. When this happens in Britain, the company's creditors can agree to a 'Company Voluntary Arrangement' (CVA) which essentially means agreeing a plan for the company to continue operating while in administration so the creditors can recover their debts. HMRC, with the outstanding £49m tax case from Murray's era plus the money owed by Whyte's outright failure to pay tax, voted against allowing this to happen.
In the absence of a CVA and agreement with creditors, this meant that Rangers FC as a company ceased to exist in June 2012, with all assets transferred to 'Sevco Scotland Ltd'.
Could this have been avoided? In the end, the £49m owed to HMRC which proved such a millstone has been substantially reduced and the cases around it are still ongoing. But ultimately, Rangers had vast amounts of debt not just to HMRC.
For his part Whyte would be bankrupted by his loan to buy the club and would be faced with a far longer ban on acting as a company director.
Sevco FC?
Sevco inherited everything Rangers had. The players had an opportunity to transfer their employment to Sevco, which also gained Ibrox Stadium and Ranger's membership of the Scottish Premier League.
For the club owned by Sevco to be able to play in the SPL next season, 2/3rds of members had to vote in favour. Clubs such as Aberdeen, Dundee United, and Hearts bowed to fan feeling that Rangers could not continue where they left off. In the end, no club voted in favour of Rangers remaning in the SPL with only Kilmarnock abstaining. This event would generate a huge amount of bad feeling and bitterness from Rangers fans who felt that supporters of other clubs were content to throw them under a bus for reasons not of their making. There was definitely a sense of schadenfreude from supporters of other clubs, watching Scotland's 'Establishment Club' go to the wall.
Could Rangers join the Scottish First Division and gain promotion to the Premier League? First Division clubs didn't want to face the consequences of a Premier League problem, so they also rejected it.
In the end, the Scottish Football League allowed Rangers FC to rejoin the league in the Third Division, a largely semi-professional league three divisions below the Premier League. Their first competitive game was a Challenge Cup (competition for the two lower leagues in the Scottish Football League) tie against Brechin City, who represent a sleepy town of just 7,000.
Clawing their way back up
Most of Ranger's players had refused their statutory right to transfer employment to the new company. Nonetheless, the 2012-13 season started well with their first home league game setting a world record for the best attended fourth division match in history as over 49,000 attended Rangers vs East Stirlingshire. A strong league performance saw Rangers confirm promotion into the 3rd tier by the end of March.
2013-14 saw another promotion as Rangers had an unbeaten season in League One (the leagues were renamed at about this time) to secure promotion to the Championship, the first league which would be wholly filled with professional clubs after the mix of professional and semi-professional that plies their trade in Scotland's lower leagues.
Rangers didn't make it three back-to-back promotions as they lost a promotion play-off final 6-1 to Motherwell, one of Scotland's more successful non-Old Firm clubs who had suffered a stint in the 2nd tier.
During this season they met Celtic in the cup. Some Celtic fans placed an advert in a newspaper claiming that the 'Old Firm' was over and while they had enjoyed a rivalry with Rangers FC they did not recognise the new club as the same entity. This caused some controversy, not just with Rangers fans, but with Celtic fans who were indeed looking forward to the first Old Firm in some time. The accusation that Rangers were 'Zombies' or 'Sevco FC' would become a common one from Celtic supporters at games and remains as such.
Rangers won the 2016-15 Scottish Championship to secure promotion, while also beating Celtic in a Scottish Cup semi-final. But, the 'Gruesome Twosome' of Scottish football would once again grace the top flight together.
Same as before?
Celtic had done very well out of the previous few years. They had won a succession of League titles at a canter with the accompanying European qualification giving them financial muscle the other clubs couldn't compete with. Rangers finished a respectable 3rd, but Celtic once again dominated the league.
After an embarrassing elimination out of the Europa League at the hands of a semi-professional side from Luxembourg, Rangers didn't improve on their 3rd place and Celtic won again. It wasn't until 2018-19 that Rangers finished 2nd.
With Celtic winning again.
Could Celtic's domination be broken before they won 10 titles in a row and broke the record jointly held by 1960s-70s Celtic and 1990s Rangers? Perhaps not yet.
2019-20 started well, Rangers had a fantastic run in the Europa League under Steven Gerrard and beat Celtic at their ground for the first time since 2010. COVID put paid to an increasingly close title race with Celtic awarded the title based on Points Per Game with the season abandoned.
This season has very much been Ranger's season though. At the time of writing they seem, barring a miracle/disaster, overwhemingly likely to win the League this year and deny Celtic the coveted ten in a year.
Postscript
Is the Rangers FC of today the same club as that pre-2012? Displays from Celtic fans would say not, and as a legal entity it certainly isn't the same. But UEFA allows for 'sporting continuity' for a club in terms of identity and honours even if the holding company or corporate structure changes. This suggests something that many football supporters would agree with - a club is as much as community asset as it is a company or business and the stories we have looked at explore the issues when the business and the community collide.
Next time, we'll take a look at how Arsenal Fan TV revolutionised football social media while turning their club into a laughing stock
submitted by generalscruff to HobbyDrama [link] [comments]

PAYSAFE VS PAYONEER - Which is the Better Buy?

Paysafe is about to merge w/ BFT, hopefully sometime this quarter and as most of you know, it is a digital payments company. Payoneer, is rumored to be possibly merging w/ FTOC and also is a digital payments company.
So why are digital payments a big deal? Well, digital payments are expected to impact 80% of existing banking revenue and be a $7.6 TRILLION industry by 2024. Furthermore, it is expected that current digital payment companies including both Paysafe and Payoneer will experience double digit annual growth over the next 10 years. Or more specifically, a CAGR of 14.2% as a sector.
But there are already big names like SQ & PYPL, why would I want to buy into Paysafe or Payoneer? The answer is simple. The rate at which digital payments are expanding, there is almost infinite growth for companies who can position themselves by having a niche or corner markets in other countries. And when investing you are looking for both growth and scale.
Paysafe currently specializes in payment processing, API, Online payments, gambling payments, Dig Payment Interation w/ Business, Receipts and managing them, fraud detection, automated billing, multiple currency support, mobile payments and currency conversion.
Payoneer currently specializes in Single & Mass Payments, Partner Networking, Receiving Payments, Multi-Currency Support & Integrated Payment systems, digital marketing, ecommerce.
Paysafe acquires revenue based on a sliding scale or a high volume client rate. Where as Payoneer operates on a flat fee percentage.
Paysafe is expected to have $1.5 billion in revenue this year while Payoneer is expected to have around $300 million. Paysafe is obviously the bigger company, so we should skip investing in Payoneer, right? Not soo fast, just because they are currently smaller now, doesn't mean they won't be a billion dollar revenue producing company in 5 years. And that means lots of growth in both valuation and market cap, meaning, your stock price erupts with the growth.
Payoneer and Paysafe both have big name clients. Too many to list, but Payoneer supports Amazon, Google, Adobe and AirBNB. Paysafe has clients such as Playstation, Steam, Skype & Facebook. So both have big name clients and names paying the bills currently.
So which one should you buy? While Payoneer is a strong and a growing international player who is rapidly expanding in India, Japan, Phillipines, South Korea and the UK and although a much smaller company, it has some big name customers. Also note that Payoneer has tripled its revenue over the last 5 years. And on the other hand, Paysafe too has solid customers, much greater revenue and it too is positioned to grow quickly in the digital payments world.
Well, the answer seems simple. BFT is the safer bet and is about to close their reverse merger any day now. It's selling for a bit over $15 right now while FTOC is at a bit under $12. Both are based on a NAV of $10. On the other hand, for those of you comfortable with risk, buying FTOC on speculation before the DA/LOI are signed and announced could very likely result in you making $2-$4 share on the announcement alone.
Another thing to consider as well, is that BFT offers one of the largest gambling wallets in the world. Why is that important? Well, lots of states and govt's are feeling the effects of C-19 on their coffers from the lack of tax dollars and are either rolling back regulation or writing in new regulations so they can benefit from gambling tax dollars. I expect that to greatly expand Paysafes revenues and profitability as gambling carries higher fees than traditional services.
I do feel that both PayoneeFTOC & BFT/Paysafe will continue to expand rapidly, most likely dwarfing the anticipated 14.2% CAGR and that they have a strong chance of tripling in size AGAIN over the next 5 years as digital payments snowball.
So bottom line, digital payments are in the golden age of expansion and both of these companies are poised to enjoy their share of that expansion and while neither company seems to be knocking the others bottom out w/ a Donkey Punch, Paysafe is the larger of the two. BFT/Paysafe seems like a sure thing, while FTOC/Payoneer is the riskier play until the DA/LOI are signed. But as usual, with greater risk, comes greater reward.
Disclosure: I am long on both BFT/Paysafe & FTOC/Payoneer.
submitted by Prestigious_Count_62 to SPACs [link] [comments]

Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks removed it]

Detailed DD post [re-post after pennystocks removed it]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is!
--
This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios.
I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview
  • High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
  1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
  2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
  3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
  • Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
  • Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:
  • Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
  • Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
  • Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
  • New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
  1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
  2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
  • Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
  • Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
  • High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
  • Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
  • Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
  • Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
  • Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
  • There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
  • For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
  • Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
  • Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
  • This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
  • Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
  • Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
  • I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
  • Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
  • Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
  • Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
https://preview.redd.it/nfq8h5fpvmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=f48977ca9c0072003ac71206cef28b0a493dd583
Valuation
  • Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
  • Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive

https://preview.redd.it/4t4n303rvmg61.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=636bca248743272bed283af97780d3e1e121312f
  • Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
  • Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
  • The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis

https://preview.redd.it/1mks0oxrvmg61.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=587ca8e2468b825103905931ebe7ab5b42314c6f
NB – assumed the following:
  1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
  2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
  3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
  4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation
  • US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
  • Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
  • Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
  • No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
  • Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price

https://preview.redd.it/vkrb2ousvmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=40f8f4c65b92efc15af0eba42bb873c774700eff
Potentially misleading cost basis information
  • A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
  • As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
  • Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
  • Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
  • No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
  • Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
  • So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
If you want to check out the video, it would be appreciated: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
submitted by AlexM-YT to HITIFSTOCK [link] [comments]

Downvote me to hell, I don't care... But this is not WSBs and I think some things need clarification. Mega rant inside...

What has happened in the last the days in this subreddit has been nothing short of an explosion of mass hysteria and delusion.
It's been a mix of a cult like following of the 'reddit stocks' where any alternative opinion shared is shot to hell and a tinfoil hat wearing brigade declaring any slight market movement not in their favour or platform issue, is due to some grand conspiracy and/or market manipulation. From an outside perspective it honestly felt like the Trump crowd proclaiming 'tHe elEctiON waS rIgGEd' just because it didn't go the way the way they wanted.
I have no issue with people sharing views on the next penny stock or with people that have wildly more speculative investing styles to my own, I think that it's completely normal and should be welcomed. But it felt as if overnight investors (as in people that got an account in the last few weeks, watched a few youtube videos on 'what's a stop loss' etc and built a confirmation bias from reading articles on reddit) were throwing completely baseless allegations at T212.
I remember it unfolding. Everyone was like 'F*** T212 let's go to FreeTrade where they aren't manipulators' or 'I can't wait til we get Robinhood in the UK' to, 'T212 is taking backhanders from HF's' & 'the whole industry is in on it'. Which is all completely baseless and false. I also remember when people were absolutely losing their marbles when they couldn't place orders despite having no knowledge NYSE had halted trading etc. Anyone who's been a market participant for more than 5 minutes knows that none of what happened was new or shocking. Brokers do unusual things in unusual times to protect themselves. I also posted on their fiduciary responsibility (which got shot to hell) which i'll share again beneath. There was also a great comment from u/dialectic_duck which i'll paste beneath for anyone that wants to read about what was happening behind the scenes.
There's also the massive issue to me that this is a FREE service. To expect lightning fast execution at the best prices and 100% server response at peak market times during a completely unexpected event like this, is an absolute joke. It's not what this platform is here for. It's a free service which to me, everyone that used this service prior to the frenzy understood. If you're new to the markets and want to dabble, or you want to invest without the fees of say HL, great T212's your guy. If you want a professional level broker, go get yourself a $10k minimum deposit and go elsewhere, or be willing to pay high account charges.
I was also downvoted for saying what would have happened if T212 hadn't suspended trading when the price was of GME was at $450. So many here would have flooded in and due to the reddit sentiment, would still be holding at a MASSIVE loss. Without realising, many people have been saved from losing a tonne of money by physically not being able to enter orders. You can't have your cake and eat it. I also think it's completely reckless when completely unqualified users are telling others 'to hold no matter what'. People that can't afford to lose money have lost £0000's on this. Holding onto a loser is completely against basic investing principles as you almost certainly lose more money. Google behavioural finance.
On risk & regulation etc. Again people who have been in the market for more than 5 minutes would have identified all the risks here INCLUDING counter-party risk and stepped back and happily watched the frenzy from the sidelines. When investing in risky stocks such as this you have to be prepared to lose money, and that loss can come from anywhere. If you honestly look for 100% risk free and feel entitled to this from a free service, you are probably better purchasing Gilts from the DMO. The FCA also regularly issues notices on the risks to retail investors on issues such as these so they quite frankly don't give a monkey's and complaints with the FOS will go nowhere. Here is the FCA's statement for anyone interested.
Prior to the WSBs crowd, there were generic discussions on investing tips, sharing investment ideas or gains, platform information and general financial news etc. I think people need to take a step back and remember that's what this is here for.
I have NO IDEA what will happen next, i'm not trying to say I do or share any opinion on what might happen to GME etc in the next few days. Could go to $10 or $10k. I also sympathise with those who were stuck in orders etc. But I think it's time we all took a step back and just chill a little. A lot of us like T212 for what it is. I like the updates to the web app and am looking forward to carrying on using it.
---------------------------
u/dialectic_duck 's post:
It’s hilarious people think this has legs and I look forward to my downvotes.
  1. when you buy a stock settlement is not immediate
  2. orderly settlement is an important function of underlying market transactions (a tx isn’t complete until what you bought is delivered)
  3. most brokers rely on settlement agents to handle settlement and clearing for them.
  4. every day brokers post collateral on a continuous net settlement basis so that the clearing house knows that both sides of a transaction will be fulfilled at settlement time this allows brokers the confidence to know that even if the other side is at another brokerage there is enough cash/equity to fulfil.
  5. the margin rate for brokers went from 10% to 100% overnight because there was concern that settlements may result in failures to deliver (simply put for clarity this means if you bought you might not end up getting what you think you bought**) and in that case the broker would be on the hook to pay this liability, as such they’re completely within their rights to manage this risk (that they cannot fulfil a delivery) not just in the case of a customer wanting to buy, but for the security of all their customers who would be adversely impacted if the broker itself imploded. (This is why Robinhood got caught short and pulled down a reported 500mm in bank lines and 1bb in emergency convertible debt funding from their investors in 24hrs, because half their customer base was buying GME and they wouldn’t have been able to meet short term clearing obligations without it)
  6. my own broker made it very clear in multiple communications that they passed on the enhanced margin requirements (100% long and 300% short AND the liquidate only restrictions on to all customers - retail, professional and institutional customers). some of those customers are family offices, small hedge funds etc (anyone that doesn’t have a prime IB brokerage).
  7. T212 uses IBKR as their intermediary, they literally had no choice but to comply, and neither did IBKR because they would have been in breach of settlement collateral posting obligations. As an aside HL uses a RFQ system and their is no obligation for the RFQ broker network to provide a quote to open new positions if they reasonably believe they cannot fulfil delivery to the client. (Btw when I checked I didn’t see restriction on buying with HL, but I only looked once).
** this is the fallacy in the argument, people are complaining they were prevented from buying, their only thesis for wanting to buy something that everyone “knows” is absurdly priced is because of XXX% short interest, by their (own logic) means there is limited shares actually available to buy. If you take this to the extreme they’re demanding someone sell them something that by their own logic might not exist for delivery to them.
It’s like going into Tesco and demanding to buy something they no longer can give you with any reasonable certainty, then writing to your MP about it, it’s stupid.
The only thing the outrage could guarantee is enhanced “retail protections” that will almost certainly result in a curtailment of retail investor freedom people have today.
Edit: if you have a complaint about not being able to buy ARK complain to ARK, it’s them that do not run a MIFID complaint fund nor report to HMRC for tax purposes (meaning gains anyway would be taxed as foreign overseas income, and not CGT).
---------------------
My post on 28/01:
They (T212) have a fiduciary responsibility to protect their customers' interests.
And yes they can control risk. It's exactly the same reason why they can't offer excess leverage to retail clients and can close out positions. Halting trading for this reason is not new. It has happened across the board with plenty of brokers in the past.
The FCA handbooks cover this. They could be liable to FCA sanctions if it transpired they were offering easy access to completely non-qualified investors and they all ended up losing huge sums and made FCA complaints.
Say GME dumps at open (which it is completely possible), I feel people won't be complaining.
They've said in that notification, this is partly to do with trading volumes (which have been crazy) and their servers will just melt again and people will be stuck in orders when the market potentially dumps this.
So T212, a free service, should upgrade all their servers and increase capacity in the space of 2 days, purely because every man and his dog has decided to pile into a handful of stocks the last few days (fuelled by a reddit forum)?
This happens, it's happened loads on the past with all brokers across the board and this issue wasn't specific to T212 yesterday.
People that have qualified themselves as pro investors, have literally become traders overnight and are complaining 'manipulation' etc...
Yes it's really shit to everyone stuck in orders, but what did you expect!!! Experienced investors will have stayed well clear of this and only invested what they can afford to lose, knowing it's a complete gamble!
The FOS are going to say T212 looks after the interests of all its users and were trying to decrease server volatility whilst literally millions of people were piling into a few names at a time there was also no liquidity. And that the platform isn't just for people trading risky instruments via CFDs. The FCA won't give a monkey's, they regularly issue risk warnings on stuff like this.
submitted by harryjelly to trading212 [link] [comments]

All about taxes, the IMF, the Treasury, the IRS and the ATF!

The International Monetary Fund is an international money system administered by the United Nations. Article IX of the Articles of Agreement make it immune from all laws.

On 7/22/1944, the IMF was created artificially under the Bretton Woods Agreement. Harry Dexter White, IMF director and CFR member was a Russian spy.

The Department of Treasury can be interchangeable with the IMF as seen in Presidential Documents, Volume 29, #4, pg. 113. The Treasury is under IMF authority.

The United States has not had a Treasury since 1921: 41 Stat. Ch. 214, pg. 654.

The Secretary of Treasury is not paid by the United States government. He is a US Governor of and paid by the IMF. He is a trustee whose Settler and Beneficiaries are unknown.
Public Law 94-564, supra, pg. 5942
U.S. Government Manual, 1990/1991, pgs. 480-481

Secretaries of Treasuries that are U.S. Governors of and paid by the IMF, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Inter-American Development Bank, African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, African Development Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, are unregistered agents of foreign powers, and thus guilty of treason.

The official names of the Internal Revenue Service are spelled and capitalized as follows:
Internal Revenue
Bureau of Internal Revenue
Bureau of Internal Revenue Service
internal revenue
internal revenue service
INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE
Office Revenue Service
Federal Alcohol Administration
Director of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms Division
Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms
US Virgin Islands Bureau of Internal Revenue
US Internal Revenue Service in Puerto Rico

On 7/9/1953, G.M. Humphrey changed the name of the Bureau of Internal Revenue to the Internal Revenue Service through Treasury Order 150-06.

The IRS reduces public allotment of credit.
In 1992, 82% of what the government borrowed went to the interest on the debt.

48 USC Section 1421l(i) defines income tax laws.

In 1884, it was accepted that the property which every man has is his own labor (and) as it is the original foundation of all other property, so it is the most sacred and inviolable. Therefore, since wages are received as compensation for labor, it can not be legally taxed. Income, however, is the process of profiting from a business (someone else's labor) or investments, and is taxable, as in a Corporation, which is an artificial entity which is given the right to exist by the State. The Constitution only allows the Congress to collect taxes, and that is limited to a uniform excise tax on gasoline, alcohol, tobacco, telephone bills, firearms, and tires, things revolving in one way or another around interstate commerce.

26-US Code 3402(p) defines voluntary withholding agreements.
Labor is not profit.
In the case U.S. vs Ballard, it was determined income is not defined in the Internal Revenue Code.
In Eisner vs. Macklemore, it was determined that income is the gain come to fruition from capital or labor. It is indistinguishable of income.
In Lucas vs. Alexander, it was determined that the 1913 Tax Act refers to income only as profit or gain.

Under the Victory Tax Act, income tax for the years 1943 and 1944 were to be paid in the years 1944 and 1945. It expired at the end of 1944. Employees of the Federal Government, residents of D.C., naval bases, forts, US citizens of Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, territories and insular possessions were lawfully required to pay Victory Tax.

In 31 USC Chapter 3, Subchapter 1, IRS, BATF or secret service are not listed as agencies of the Department of Treasury. The IRS is referenced to be audited by Controller General in Title 31 USC section 713.

Under Delegation Order 115 revision 5 of 5/12/1986, the only delegation of authority to conduct audit, enables the IRS and ATF to only audit themselves and for amounts of $750 or less. Any amount above $750 must be audited by the Controller General according to 31 USC. No other authority to audit exists. Order 191 states they can levy on property but only if in the hands of 3rd parties.

26-CFR 1.6091, explains the Director of International Operations and filing requirements. Nothing is filed with the IRS. There is no regulation pertaining to failure to file. There are no filing requirements.

Al Capone was jailed for tax due on alcohol illegally imported from Canada. He did not pay duties and excises on this alcohol. His partner was Edgar Brothman, the owner of Seagrams, who made a deal with the U.S. Government to get off.

IRS money spends at least a year in a "Quad Zero" account under an Individual Master File. The Director of the IRS can do whatever he wants with the money. It usually proceeds to the Director of the Service Center. Under Treasury Order 91, IRS money is dispersed to the Agency for International Development, the military arm of the United Nations, which provides for district directors, directors of service centers and assistant commissioners to become members of board of directors of the corporation that doles out money.

William Casey, CIA director, and head of AID, funneled millions to the Soviet Union to be spent building the Kama River Truck Factory.

Article 1, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution forbids unapportioned direct taxes upon citizens of the 50 states. The Constitution forbids withholding tax.

In Pollock v. Farmers' Loan & Trust Co., it was concluded that direct taxes must be apportioned.

According to Clause 17 of Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution, the Federal Government is limited to governing its own property.

The federal government can only tax on Federal Government Internal Revenue. The government has no duty to citizens / individuals.

The Federal Government's taxation is limited to 5 activities:

That includes
windfall profits like offshore oil wells,
war profits such as income from states and trusts maintained by the Federal Government for people in the military like Marine Killed In Duty trust fund,
customs taxes,
and the State Department.

The power of the Federal Government is limited to regulate commerce with foreign nations and among the several state and Indian tribes, according to Clause 3 of Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution. In 18 USC Section 921, the term interstate or foreign commerce includes commerce between any place in a state, and any place outside of that state, or within any possession of the United States, not including the Canal Zone or D.C. but such terms does not include commerce between places within the same state but through any place outside of that state.

28 USC Rule 54(c), Application of Terms: "As used in these rules the following terms have the designated meanings. 'Act of Congress' includes any act of Congress locally applicable to and in force in the District of Columbia, in Puerto Rico, in a territory or in an insular possession."

In the IRS manual of 4/21/1989, 1132.72, Collection Division, says: "Executes the full range of collection activities on delinquent accounts, which includes securing delinquent returns involving taxpayers outside the United States and those in United States territories, possessions and in Puerto Rico."

page 1100-40.1 Director, Office of Taxpayer Service and Compliance: "Responsible for operation of a comprehensive enforcement and assistance program for all taxpayers under the immediate jurisdiction of the Assistant Commissioner (International) .... Directs the full range of collection activity on delinquent accounts and delinquent returns for taxpayers overseas, in Puerto Rico, and in United States possessions and territories."

page 1100-40.2 "the Criminal Investigation Division enforces the criminal statutes applicable to income, estate, gift, employment, and excise tax laws ... involving United States citizens residing in foreign countries and nonresident aliens subject to Federal income tax filing requirements by developing information concerning alleged criminal violations thereof, evaluating allegations and indications of such violations to determine investigations to be undertaken, investigating suspected criminal violations of such laws, recommending prosecution when warranted, and measuring effectiveness of the investigation processes"

The United States Attorney's Manual of 10/1/1988, Title 6 Tax Division, Chapter 4, page 16, , 6-4.270, Criminal Division Responsibility, states: "The Criminal Division has limited responsibility for the prosecution of offenses investigated by the IRS. Those offenses are: excise violations involving liquor tax, narcotics, stamp tax, firearms, wagering, and coin-operated gambling and amusement machines; malfeasance offenses committed by IRS personnel; forcible rescue of seized property; corrupt or forcible interference with an officer or employee acting under the internal revenue laws; and unauthorized mutilation, removal or misuse of stamps." See 28 C.F.R. Sec. 0.70.

If you volunteer that you are a U.S. citizen you have become a U.S. citizen. If you write your name on a line labeled taxpayer you have become a taxpayer.

A return is prepared by a taxpayer to submit to Federal Government taxes he/she collected.

A 1040 is an income tax return for non-resident alien citizen of the U.S. Virgin Islands residing in one of 50 states or agent thereof. It's a non-taxable return and the money derived from it doesn't go to the government.

A taxpayer is a tax collector who submits taxes as a return to the Federal Government.

A revenue agent is any duly authorized Commonwealth Internal Revenue Agent of the Department of the Treasury of Puerto Rico.

A revenue officer collects taxes and returns then files the returns with the District Director who files the return with the service center showing the taxes he collected in his district. This goes to the super center which files the return with Washington D.C. or with the Secretary of Treasury of Puerto Rico who is the Commissioner of Internal Revenue. He takes deductions for the cost to collect taxes.

An employee is employed by the Federal Government.

An employer is the Federal Government.

An individual is a citizen of Guam or the U.S. Virgin Islands.

A business is a government, bank or insurance company.

A domestic corporation is a corporation residing within D.C., Guam, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Philippines, Northern Mariana Trust Territory, territories, and insular possessions.

A resident is an alien citizen of Guam, U.S. Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico who resides within one of the 50 states of the Union or other island possessions.

The Federal Government must trick its citizens into voluntarily paying taxes as U.S. Citizens of Guam or Puerto Rico. Guam and the U.S. are mutually interchangeable.
In the Internal Revenue Code of 1954, which is the Internal Revenue Code of 1939, the U.S. and Guam are to coordinate individual income tax.

26 CFR 301.7654-1 explains coordination of U.S. and Guam individual income taxes. Section (e) explains military personnel in Guam.

pg. 65 of 26 CFR, created 6/1/1938, pertains to the China Trade Act, administered in the Philippines by the Bureau of internal revenue.

31 USC 1321 is the Philippines Customs Administrative Act passed by the Philippine Commission between 9/1/1900 and 8/31/1902. It merged customs and internal revenue in the Philippines. It is administered under general supervision and control of Secretary of Finance and Justice.

Trust Fund #1 is the Philippine Special Fund (Customs Duties).

Trust Fund #2 is the Philippines Special Fund (internal revenue) enacted by Internal Revenue Law of 1904 pertaining to alcohol taxes in the Philippines.

Article 1, Section 2 created the Bureau of Internal Revenue in the Department of Finance and Justice. The Collector of Internal Revenue is the Chief Officer appointed by the Civil Governor with advice and consent of the Philippines Commission. He is paid 8000 pesos per annum salary.

Article 1, Section 3: Collector of Internal Revenue under direction of Secretary of Finance and Justice shall have general superintendence of assessment and collection of all taxes and excises imposed by this act or any act amendatory thereof.

Trust Fund #62 is the Puerto Rico Special Fund (Internal Revenue).

27 CFR Chapter 1, section 2050.11 of 4/1/1994 defines:
Revenue Agent as any internal revenue agent of Treasury of Puerto Rico,
Secretary as Secretary of Treasury of Puerto Rico, and
US ATF Office as Puerto Rico operating under compliance with the North Atlantic region.

Tax Class 6 are violations of alcohol, tobacco or firearms in Puerto Rico.

In IRS publication 6209, IRS computer code "TC 150" is for Virgin Islands Returns. Codes 300 - 398 are listed as U.S. and UK Tax Treaty claims involving taxes on narcotics financed in the Cayman Islands and imported into the Virgin Islands.

Form 8288 is a backup withholding form for when you import narcotics into the Virgin Islands. Withhold 20% and pay to the Commissioner of Narcotics.

The Internal Revenue Manual, Handbook of Delegation Orders of January 17, 1983, page 1229-91 outlines the alleged Internal Revenue Service's system of monetary awards "of up to and including $5,000 for any one individual employee or group of employees in his/her immediate office, including field employees engaged in National Office projects; and contributions of employees of other Government agencies and armed forces members" with the approval of the Deputy Commissioner, "of $5,001 to $10,000 for any one individual or group" with approval of the Deputy Commissioner, "of $10,001 - $25,000 for any one individual or group" with the Commissioner's concurrence, "an additional monetary award of $10,000 (total $35,000) to the President through Treasury and OPM" with the Commissioner's concurrence.

The Federal Alcohol Administration Act, 27 USC 201, was created under the National Industrial Reconstruction Act, creating the Federal Alcohol Administration which was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in the 1930s. Under 1940 Reorganization Plan #3, 5 USC 903 Subsection 8 and 9, its office abolished and functions directed to be administered under supervision of Secretary of Treasury through Bureau of Internal Revenue. It was transferred to the Philippines Bureau of Internal Revenue.

Reorganization Plan 26 of 1950 transferred the duties of the IRS related to alcohol, tobacco and firearms.
See 26 USC Chapters 51 - 53,
Chapters 61 - 80,
Section 7652, and 7653 in relation to tax and
27 USC Chapter 8.

On 6/6/1972, Charles E. Walker issued Treasury Order 120-01 to establish the ATF without legislation or knowledge of the people. It created the Director, Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms division.

The ATF is an international police organization made up of the Philosophers of Fire exempt from the laws of the USA.

Their jurisdiction is Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The Regional Director of Compliance is the Puerto Rico BATF. The only illegal arms are ones imported from Puerto Rico and taxes not paid on them.

In 1975 it was named the Internal Revenue Service.

In the 12/15/1976 edition of the Federal Register, Director, ATF replaced by IRS.

Title 26-USC Chapters 61 to 80 doesn't pertain to the public. Regulations apply to officers and employees and the ATF / IRS. It explains procedures that include: keeping records, examination of records, determination of district director whether required to file return, internal audit, IRS can audit if under $750, if over $750, it must be conducted by the Inspector General, filing requirements, record keeping, examination assessment, how to pay, tax court, criminal investigation and prosecution. These are delegated to the BATF in Puerto Rico, the Puerto Rican and the Virgin Islands tax agency. They are only relevant to Puerto Rican product. Not permitted to obtain records pertaining to Chapters 61 and 80.

Reference: https://www.nationallibertyalliance.org/files/docs/DocumentsEssays/Cooper%20File.pdf
submitted by ImmortalAl to conspiracy [link] [comments]

How To Value A Stock (From Someone Who Has Beaten The S&P Almost Every Year Since 2008)

I recently wrote this up for my friends who asked me how I do what I do. I figured I'd share it here. This is freely available to anyone who wants it, though please credit me if you simply copy/paste. Nothing here is novel, and can be done by anyone. I am not a financial professional, and the example given below is only Abbvie because I forgot that Abbott Labs was alphabetically the first in the S&P 500 when picking an example.

First, let’s come right out and say that if you do not have the time to do this, or do not find it enjoyable, just buy low-cost index funds that track either the total market or the S&P 500.
Second, let’s make an important distinction:
Investing – This is the act of purchasing assets for less than their intrinsic value. This PDF will focus on how to determine the intrinsic value of an asset that produces income. Note that for most assets, this is simply how much money you can extract from the asset over the period of time that you hold it for. There’s no other value than money in investing. Causes and emotions are what philanthropy is for.
Speculating – This is, at its core, the act of taking supply of an asset from the present to the future (by hoarding it). If there is more demand, lower supply, or both, this pays the speculator to take the asset from a period of low value to one of high value. It is not gambling, but is very difficult to do, since it entails taking on timing risk. It is not illegal, immoral, or impossible, but I have no special insight into it. I’ll leave it there.
Gambling – This looks a lot like speculation, but without any particular reason to believe the asset will be more valuable in the future. Speculators at least estimate the value of an asset to investors, as they are ultimately the end market for an asset. Do not gamble. Full stop.
Determining the intrinsic value of an asset
The value of an asset is simply the present value of all future income that asset can provide you. Since a dollar in five years is naturally less valuable than a dollar today, you have to discount future income against the opportunity cost of forgoing the dollars you invest today. When we get to the Present Value equation, this is represented by interest. It can also be thought of as the opportunity cost of investing in the asset instead of some other asset or simply consuming the dollars instead.
Here’s the actual math. Note that it’s not super hard, and while I will explain it, there are dozens of free websites that will quickly let you calculate this. The key phrase to Google would be “present value of a growing annuity calculator.”
PV = (C / i - G) * {1 – [(1 + G)/(1 + i)]^n}
PV = present value
C = cash flow per period
n = number of payments
i = interest rate
G = growth rate
The value for PV is your estimation of what the asset is worth today. If this ends up far higher than the market price, you are probably purchasing dollars for quarters. Avoid edge cases, as you are guessing about both the interest and growth rate.
C is the cash flow per period. If you have a high degree of confidence in the culture of the company and it has a long history of being good stewards of retained earnings, you can use the earnings per share (EPS). I usually use the dividend. It is impossible to fake or financially engineer a dividend, and requires less looking through financial documents to make sure it’s what it appears to be. But for, say, Apple or Microsoft or Chevron, feel free to use the EPS.
The number of payments is how many payments you expect while holding the asset. Dividends in American companies are typically quarterly (though some pay monthly or every six months, so check on that), so every multiple of four would represent one year if you choose to do it that way. If n = 16, then you’re expecting to hold the asset for 4 years. You can also put in a year’s worth of dividends and keep n = years rather than quarters.
I typically do n = 30, since 30 years is both a long time horizon that is realistic, and coincides when I will hit “retirement age.” You will have to decide how far ahead you’re planning. For most people, they are net purchasers of investments while working and net sellers while retired, so keep that in mind. Note that using years instead of quarters will lessen the amount of compounding, and will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
Interest is one of the two variables you have to guess at. Typically, one would put what you expect the actual long-run interest rate to average for this investment. Unfortunately, this is really difficult. Instead, I use a rate that represents my opportunity cost. There are any number of relatively safe ways to get a 5% yield on money invested, so I generally use i = 5% to represent that this asset has to perform better than a utility or telecom or real estate investment trust. Feel free to use what you feel is most appropriate for you. A higher interest rate will lower the value of the asset, so high-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
The second variable you have to guess at is the growth rate. If you’re looking at the dividend, you want to know how fast to expect it to grow over time. If you’re using the EPS for C, then you want to see how quickly the total earnings are growing per share. This is extremely difficult to predict. I recommend taking the 5-year growth rate and halving it. Dividends will also be more predictable here, as most companies pay out far less than they make, which means even if EPS grows slowly, the dividend can still grow quickly for many years after a boom is over for the company. Note that lowering your estimate for G will lower the value of the asset, so low-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
OK, so let’s walk through an example. I’ll use Abbvie, a biotech/pharmaceutical company. It has a quarterly dividend for the coming year of $1.30/share. Its dividend has an 18.5% growth rate over the last 5 years, and has grown it for the last 7 (it’s only been around for 8 years).
I assumed a growth rate (G) of 7%. I used $5.20 as the starting dividend this coming year and used years for my n = 30. As always, I used i = 5%.
This gave me an estimated present value of 1 share of Abbvie at $197.94. As of writing this, Abbvie shares are trading on the market at $103.43. This looks like a screaming buy, but first let’s look at why I have a high degree of confidence.
Note how the interest was higher than the going rate – I used my “low-risk alternative” as an opportunity cost. Abbvie has an extremely high rate of growth for its dividend, so I took less than half of its current rate. I also calculated annually rather than quarterly, which reduces the impact of high rates of growth. That’s three places in the equation where I consciously lowered the estimated value of a share of Abbvie, and it still came out as a strong buy – spending less about 50c for a dollar!
I do this because even if I’m wrong in some or all of my predictions, I now have quite a bit of room to be wrong and still make money. It’s like how you don’t walk next to a steep cliff, right? You should know how to walk where you want to, but there’s always the small chance something could cause you to slip or put a foot wrong. But if your plan is always to be 5 feet away from the edge of the cliff, the odds are that you’ll not go over the edge even if you fall down.
Many people feel this is over cautious. But let my portfolio speak for itself. I’ve beaten the S&P 500 index fund every year except one since 2008. My brokerage only keeps digital records back to Dec 2015, but the S&P 500 returned 101% since then – with dividends reinvested. My own portfolio has returned 256%.
So caution is still very high reward. In fact, if you just don’t lose, you’ll do better than the vast majority of professional money managers (about 85% of whom cannot even match the index funds).
Due diligence still has to occur
Now, we can’t just go straight out and buy Abbvie – though it’s a high profile company that receives lots of investor and regulator scrutiny so it’s less likely to have a landmine than most. Just to make sure, you’ll want to do the following before buying shares in this company:
-Check the debt load. If the debt is very high, has very high interest rates, or has a lot of it maturing very soon, then this is a yellow flag. It doesn’t mean don’t buy, but make sure you understand the structure of the company’s debt and make sure it won’t impair the company’s earnings going forward. This information is found on the balance sheet. Abbvie has $97.287 billion in long-term liabilities such as debt, pension liability, and deferred taxes. That’s a lot compared to their assets, but they also are owed some money, so it nets out about $90 billion.
-What’s the book value? Book value is fairly low at $8.65/share. This is pretty much the assets minus the liabilities. Abbvie is in a knowledge industry, however, so you shouldn’t expect their main assets to be physical capital that can be sold. It’s mostly organizational or human capital from their workforce, so this isn’t worrying. If Abbvie was, say, a retailer with stores and land and inventory, you’d want this to be much, much higher for the share price. There’s no easy way to judge this one, unfortunately, but it’s good to look it up and you’ll eventually get a feel for it. No red flags here.
-What are the catastrophic risks that even you or I could think of? For a company in the pharmaceutical space, the obvious answer is regulatory and political risk. Regulatory risk is just want it sounds like – more regulation which can be either costly to comply with or lower profits. This does have an upside, which is that it makes it harder for new competitors to enter a market, so I tend to be rather sanguine about regulatory risk. Political risk is much more severe. This is when politicians decide to either confiscate a company, target it specifically rather than the industry it’s in, or other ways in which the government is involved with taking rather than regulating. In Anglo countries (US/UK/Canada/Australia), the rule of law is typically strong enough that this doesn’t happen much, as there is usually some kind of due process. Places like China, Argentina, Russia, and the EU are much more likely to nationalize or otherwise capriciously penalize a company due to the prevailing political winds. Abbvie has a global footprint, but that also means it’s diversified against such risk. It’s headquartered in the US, so it’s unlikely someone will simply take the entire company.
-Payout ratio? Abbvie has a fairly high payout ratio (80% for the last completed fiscal year of 2019), as they have been aggressively growing the dividend. That’s another good reason to input a much lower G than the last few years. That being said, Abbvie has been around for 8 years (it was spun off of Abbott Labs) and has grown its dividend for the last 7 years and has announced it will this coming year as well. The payout ratio is pretty high, but not worrisome. It suggests a fairly mature company that’s now returning cash to shareholders. I’d say this is not nothing, but less than a yellow flag for me. Any company with 95%+ payout ratio is much more vulnerable to a dividend cut.
-Credit rating? S&P gives Abbvie a BBB+ grade for its unsecured debt. This is a slight downgrade because their balance sheet is currently digesting a big acquisition from early 2020 (Allergan). Moody’s gives it a Baa2 rating for unsecured debt. These are both good, solid, investment-grade credit ratings (if you were buying the bonds of Abbvie). This looks great.
-Does it need a genius? Some companies run on all cylinders because they have a genius at the helm – often a founder. But what you want is a company any dummy can run, because sooner or later any dummy will. Don’t plan to invest long-term in companies that require skilled management. Abbvie is fairly diversified and has an OK pipeline of research. They also can buy little biotech companies that invent something but can’t navigate the regulations to bring it to market. So pondering giants are actually a good thing. Means they’re hard to break.
So, given that there was nothing obviously treacherous in our basic due diligence, and the extreme discount at which our example is selling for, this would be one you might want to buy! This is what I do for all the companies I invest in.
Notice that there is no story, no excitement, no narrative, no counting on good or bad management. Emotion has no place in investing. You also will notice that we took every opportunity to reduce the risk of losing your capital by always sandbagging the estimated value of the company. You never want to pick up nickels in front of a steamroller. You want the investment to be so obvious it hits you in the face like a baseball bat. If you’re ever on the fence, don’t do it. You don’t have to hit home runs – just don’t strike out.
You can be even more conservative in your estimates than I am. If, for instance, you used 5% growth rate for Abbvie’s dividend, you’d still get a present value of $148.57/share vs the current market price of $103.43. Similarly, you could use a higher interest rate, which would also lower the estimated present value.
You may have to do this calculation with more companies to find one to buy, but even in a very expensive market like today’s, there is always an opportunity. You don’t even have to look at little companies. There’s around 500 companies in the S&P – just start with “A” and work your way through all of them.
A quick note about further reading: I very strongly urge most people to actually read as little as possible on this subject once they get the basics. That’s not because there’s not more to learn, but because I would sadly say the majority of what I see and hear is actively bad advice. But if you do want to keep up with financial news and books and chat boards, the best thing to do is find out what the historical returns of the person giving advice are.
Since WWII, the long-run return on the S&P 500 has generally been just a bit shy of 10% per year. If someone can’t beat that, year-in-and-year-out, then their advice is worthless. As in, you don’t want to accidentally absorb it. This is, unfortunately, true for most professionals. Over the last 15 years, 92.2% of actively managed funds have underperformed a simple S&P 500 index fund (and they charge you fees for the privilege). Beware anyone selling something. The advice here is given freely
That’s why I made a point of mentioning that I have and regularly outperform the standard fund almost every year. Granted, I don’t have many of the regulatory restrictions a public fund would have, but it shows how useful the advice I’m giving here is. You don’t need anything fancy. You don’t need anything high risk. I’ve done this through two deep recessions and the longest bull market in history.
If you want to learn more about investing in general and where I learned how to do this, you can read Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. It was written in the 1930s, so much of the technical information is out of date. Skip over that and just read it for the concepts.
Even easier reading is to go online to Berkshire Hathaway’s website and pull Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger’s annual letter to shareholders. Almost all of them have something useful in them and don’t make you do equations.
I am available for questions in the comments
submitted by PaperImperium to gme_meltdown [link] [comments]

Nikola Stock Crash | Alibaba Stock Plunges | FCEL, DKNG & PENN | Stock Market News for Today [12-24]

Nikola saw another stock crash yesterday, while Alibaba’s stock plunges after-hours with increased pressure from the regulators. Some news about FCEL, DKNG, PENN and other stock market news for today.
~Very Long Post~
Hello everyone and Good Morning! First of all, I wanted to wish to everyone happiness, peace and prosperity this upcoming Christmas, hope you are all doing well, Merry Christmas everyone.
And let’s start with the recap of yesterday as we saw the Dow Jones leading the way, finishing up .38%, with the broad market SP500 also barely finishing in the green for the day up .07% and the Nasdaq Composite finishing in the red .29%.
We also saw the VIX dropping again today by 3.8% despite being even lower but seeing a pop in the last hours of trading with a spike of more than 4% with more uncertainty being created in the Congress after Trump vetoed the defense bill, as he continued to distract the attention from the big number of pardons he keeps giving out, with the latest round bringing the total to almost 50 in the past week.
More than 60% of the companies were gaining yesterday with over 200 new highs, but the volume was relatively low in this shortened trading week, as 8 of the 11 SP sectors were gaining yesterday with Energy and Financials gaining more than 1.6% with Financials gaining a boost as the Treasury yields pushed up and the curve continues to steepen, while the laggards were Real Estate, Technology and Utilities as value plays especially small and mid-caps outperformed yesterday, with the large-cap growth companies finishing the day down by more than half a percent.
You can see this exact thing in this HEAT MAP as the 3 biggest companies in the world, Apple, Amazon & Microsoft, finished the day down more than 0.6%. You can also see that most of the gains were concentrated in the banks and oil & gas industry while the rest of the market was pretty much mixed with companies like Tesla, Google, Facebook having small gains, while others like Zoom, Netflix, Airbnb and many more suffered.
Yesterday we also got the AAII SURVEY that shows how investors were feeling last week. This time we don’t get any good news as this is a contrarian indicator, as people started to move from a bearish sentiment to a more neutral sentiment with more than 4% of investors moving from a bearish view to a neutral view, with only a .1% increase in bullish investors last week, as the stimulus bill seemed to be finally agreed on before Trump making new headlines this week again with the Veto of the NDAA.
Meanwhile we also got tons of economic data yesterday starting with initial and continuing jobless claims as initial claims came in way lower than expected just over 800K, down almost 90K from the previous week and falling to a 3-week low, with the continuing jobless claims also dropping to 5.3M, lower than last week and what was expected from the analysts.
We also saw the durable goods number coming in better than expected with a .9% increase, up for the 7th straight month, while house PRICES rose nationwide by 1.5% in October from the previous month, which continued to push house prices higher by more than 10% since last year, with home SALES falling in November but are still up over 20% year over year as the median sales price of new houses continued to trend up.
Alongside this we saw the final consumer sentiment read slipping in December to 80.7, lower than expected but higher than the 76.9 in November, with the November Personal INCOME coming worse than expected, losing 1.1% from the previous month.
In contrast, today we don’t really get any critical economic data and the stock market closes early.
So, we saw Nikola take another stumble yesterday, after the whole Apple & Tesla disruption as we saw the stocks drop more than 10% again yesterday and is down more than 26% since I made my prediction and just hit my first price target, here is the link to that post.
Nikola shares skid yesterday again after another deal for the company fell, as that meant the termination of the deal with Republic Services to develop an electric garbage truck for them. The deal was expected to have Nikola produce over 2500 trucks for the company. So, I would trim my sell position on Nikola here, while leaving some for my next target, with that target being a drop in the single digits in the future for the company.
In contrast to Nikola, we saw FuelCell Energy rising for a seventh straight session, this has happened after the Congress has included provisions in the relief bill to extend clean energy tax credits, and seems to be one of favorite plays in the stock market right now.
In some other stock market news, we saw Alibaba shares plummeting again more than 8% on the Hong Kong exchange and more than 7% in pre-market in the US by now, after more pressure has been put on the company as the Chinese authorities are continuing to pursue anti-monopolistic investigations on the company while also continuing the investigation on Ant Group which is an affiliate of Alibaba as they hold more than 1/3 of the company. I think these investigations are very likely to come out with fines and structural changes on how the company will work with its subsidiaries and affiliates, and that the high flying, record-breaking, Ant Group IPO will likely be postponed for a longer period until they meet regulators requirements as it is expected that Ant Group will be given some guidelines to follow by the regulators. My personal belief is that Alibaba is a great company and it should trade higher than this, but until this whole mess with the authorities clears, anything can happen as you can see in this CHART, as the stock has underperformed since Ant Group canceled the IPO, with my long-term price target for Alibaba being 300$, but I wouldn’t go to heavy on this trade right now.
Enough of Alibaba, meanwhile we also saw XL Fleet jumping huge yesterday after the usual short-seller Citron, indicated that there is still more upside for this company.
And one final piece of news is that Colorado set another record for wagers in November, this is another confirmation of the gambling tailwinds that will skyrocket companies like DraftKings & PENN Gaming higher in the next years.
Let’s hope for a good day in the market as the FUTURES seem to be pointing at a good open, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way, while the European Union and UK are finally nearing a deal for Brexit, and remember there are only 5 trading sessions left in 2020 with today also being a short-day of trading.
Also, don’t forget this is usually when one of the best 7-day period for gains happens, with an average return of 1.33% and a 77% chance of that happening since 1950. But be careful, not every year is a winner, you can see here some examples, with 1999 being a very bad year as the dot com bubble approached, with another bad year coinciding with the start of the financial crisis. Hopefully this will be the 5th straight year with a positive return in this period.
Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market!
Have a great day and see you next time!
submitted by 0toHeroInvesting to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Any accountants here? Ex-convict wants advice?

Hello, I am using a throwaway.
I am an ex-con released in 2018 for car crime. You can read one of the links from my post history if you want more details but the relevant facts are these:
Right before I was arrested in 2015 I bought bitcoins in cash from a BTC ATM machine. I had 20.33 BTC in my possession, they were bought for around £400 each back then. I gave them to my sister to hold onto when my landlord kicked me out of my rental house and I left my personal possessions with her when I went inside. I have proof of receipts for the purchases and I have the gambling transactions from my William Hill online account that show I made purchases from the BTC ATM next door to the bookie each time I had a good day at the bookies and bought one coin.
When I came out of prison, I spoke to an accountant about them. He showed me guidance from HMRC that said that bitcoins were considered gambling and therefore not subject to tax.
I have been selling them for the last few years, in cash and used them to fund my living expenses and equipment for my job (I was living in a probation service approved hostel whilst working as a painter and decorator and would sell them when I was low on work).
I still have just over 16 bitcoins left. However, I went to my accountant just before Christmas and gave him my receipts for my painting and decorating jobs. He said guidance has now changed in 2018 and that the bitcoins would also have to be accounted for also and that they were subject to capital gains tax less my personal allowance. I would also have to redo my tax returns for 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 and 2019/2020 to account for the ones that I sold previously, less my allowance.
My question is, if I redo the tax returns, is there a possibility that my bitcoins could all be confiscated as Proceeds of Crime?
My accountant seemed shocked when I pointed out to him that they had climbed in price and were now standing at £16,000 (he said I'm the only client with bitcoins he has, and he doesn't know much about them). He said that he would try to speak to a HMRC officer off-the-record and see if there was a chance to do a full disclosure. He said there is something similar called a Code 9 but that is for criminal offences of tax fraud or tax evasion. He is worried that HMRC might not believe that I bought the coins with the proceeds of gambling, but that they were proceeds of crime from the car ringing I was doing. I still have some of my ATM receipts and I have the blockchain records that show I bought the bitcoins and transferred them onto paper printouts from bitaddress.org (they are now kept on a Trezor). But there's no proof they were bought in cash with the gambling proceeds.
He seem quite concerned that I am sitting on assets worth £250,000 and that I could potentially be liable to lose them all. He has suggested that he won't submit my tax returns yet, until he speaks to some colleagues of his and a tax investigator that he knows. Then he says, it might be better to speak directly to HMRC and ask for a sit-down interview or a Zoom call and make a full disclosure.
He said I also have the possibility of leaving the United Kingdom and moving to a tax haven. However I am now married and my wife's little boys from her previous marriage are in school, they call me 'dad' now. I'm not sure £250,000 would last forever in Switzerland or wherever, plus I'm an ex-con and might not get a residency permit. I'd prefer to stay in the UK and pay my taxes and get on with my life. My painting and decorating job is going really well now and I've got a full order book for spring 2021. I no longer drink or gamble. I moved away from my hometown and no longer have any contact with any of my old group. Any advice any accountants here can give is most welcome.
Tl;DR: I'm scared HMRC might confiscate my 16 bitcoins as Proceeds of Crime for an earlier offence, is there anything I can do and what's the % chance of me losing my coins?
submitted by PolarDistress to UKPersonalFinance [link] [comments]

[Initial Impressions] Meermin Wholecut Chelsea - Dark Brown Calf

Album first
Edit: Added some additional pics in the album.
Intro
This is my third pair of goodyear welted boots. My current go-to boots are Wolverine 1000 Mile Evans; these being a very casual look, I wanted a dressier boot, one that I could dress up with a suit or dress down with jeans. The chelsea boot seemed to fit the bill.
Purchasing
I bought these from Meermin’s website for $330 CAD, including shipping. As a Canadian who has been shopping around for quality footwear for a while, this is CHEAP. I’m more than happy with the price. Got dinged for $16 in taxes when it cleared customs, and UPS charged a $10 brokerage fee for collecting this. Something to keep in mind for fellow Canadians - if you need to do any returns, there’ll be some costs that you won’t get back. Still quite happy with the $356 CAD all-in; I don’t think I could have gotten anything close to this quality at local retail for that price.
Meermin also shipped the boots UPS Expedited from New Jersey, which was nice, as shipping was quite fast. They shipped about 1 business day after ordering, and arrived 3 days later.
Sizing, Fit, and Comfort
Buying footwear online without the opportunity to try on is always a bit of a gamble, and I put a lot of effort into trying to get the sizing right, since return and re-purchase costs could add up pretty quickly, on top of just being annoying. Meermin customer service emailed me some very helpful information on measuring my feet, as well as a link to their sizing tool (https://digamelon.typeform.com/to/yqolYj), which was super helpful as it gives full measurements for all the Meermin lasts in each size. I did a lot of measuring of my feet before settling on size 10UK.
Again, the sizing tool was invaluable for choosing the right size - I had seen a lot of advice to go a full size down from your US size to Meermin’s UK sizing. I wear a US 10.5D in most shoes, but I think the 9.5 UK would have been too narrow in the toe - this is a common issue for me, as my forefoot is around a D width, but my hindfoot and ankle are rather narrow. In many of the chelsea boots I’ve tried (including Red Wing Willistons), the ones long enough to accommodate my foot length are either too narrow in the toe, or too wide in the heel and around the ankle. For further sizing reference for anyone out there, I wear a US 9.5D Wolverine 1000 Mile, I own a pair of US 9.5D Thursday Presidents that are just a bit too narrow at the point of the toe for me to be truly comfortable, and when I tried on a pair of Iron Rangers at the Red Wing store, the US 9D fit me best.
Overall the fit is comfortable, but not perfect. The collar is a bit loose around my ankle at the front and back, and there's a bit of extra room around my heel, though heel slip is minimal. The fit around my forefoot and toes is just right. Snug, but not tight. Thicker socks improve the fit somewhat. I ended up buying Superfeet’s ¾ insert off Amazon, which fills in some volume in the heel and under the vamp, and makes the fit almost perfect.
Pretty satisfied with the fit overall. Finding chelsea boots of this style that were even remotely comfortable for my foot shape was a challenge, much less a goodyear welted pair. At some point I’d like to see if a cobbler could make me a thicker ¾ leather insole so that I’d no longer need the Superfeet inserts. If anyone’s ever done something like that, I’d be interested to hear about it.
Look and Style
I was debating a black chelsea vs. a dark brown and ended up going with dark brown, as I feel like it would be more versatile with my wardrobe. The look and style is exactly what I wanted - the toes are somewhat pointed, giving the boots a dressier and sleeker profile than the rounded toe on chelsea boots like Blundstones, while still providing enough room for my wide, squarish toes. The colour is pretty true to what was shown on Meermin’s website, a nice shiny uniform dark brown that can be dressed up or down. The day my boots arrived, my kids wanted to have a “fancy dinner” at home, so I wore them with my suit (which doesn’t get any wear these days due to COVID) - the boots looked sharp!
Leather and Craftsmanship
The calf leather (from Les Tanneries Du Puy in France, per Meermin) is quite soft and supple. I haven’t worn these for an extended period yet, but so far the break-in seems pretty gentle, contrary to what I’d heard about Meermin boots in general. A few mild tight spots, but overall pretty comfortable right off the bat.
The overall fit and finish is pretty good. I’ve read mixed reviews about Meermin in this area, but mine seem pretty solid. There were a few loose threads left around the edge of the elastic areas, but they weren’t attached to anything and I was able to just pick them off. Looked like stuff that just didn’t get cleaned up before they left the factory.
There is what appears to be a slight crease line running down the front center of both boots, from the top of the collar down to the toe. Just a slightly lighter thin line in the leather - looks like where the leather was folded to shape the boot. It’s very hard to see; I can only see it up close in certain light, but this might bother some people. This is my first pair of chelsea boots, so I don’t know if this is common.
Conclusion
Pretty happy with these. I’ve been looking for a good chelsea boot for a while, and this is exactly the style that I wanted. My options in Canada at this price point that aren’t cemented crap are next to non-existent, so this was a nice introduction to Meermin. If anyone knows if Meermin has a last with the same width toe as the Hiro with a narrower heel, please let me know!
submitted by jammm3r to goodyearwelt [link] [comments]

PANDEMIC UPDATE - 26 January 2021

UPDATE – 26 January 2021
COVID has been in Canada for one year now.
The strange case of the CEO in disguise to get vaccine for himself.
COVID-19 tax tips.
COVID-19 and the world of work – the International Labor Organization.
A breakdown of cases among healthcare workers.

If you’re having trouble regulating life while working from home, the fake commute might be for you, have a look: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/18/success/fake-commute-meaning-benefits-pandemic-wellness/index.html
“For the many who have been doing your part, you may be asking, what more can I do? Be the voice of support and encouragement for those who may be wavering in their resolve.” – Dr. Bonnie Henry.
Feel free to share this post, or copy and paste, in whole or any part of it.

LOCAL:
· 82 cases among New West residents in the previous week.
· No new school exposures in New Westminster since that of the Queensborough Middle School on January 11th.
· Current outbreaks: Royal City Manor, declared Jan 21; Royal Columbian Hospital, declared Jan 20.
· The Rio Theatre in Vancouver has converted into a sports bar.
· The theatre is dealing with a full closure of movie theatres. But as restaurants and bars can remain open with safety protocols, the theatre is seeking other ways to do business. The move does show that the Rio cannot do business as a theatre right now, but can meet the safety requirements to operate as a sports bar.
· There are differences though. The theatre has to actually meet the requirements for a bar, such as taking orders from people’s seats rather than allowing a line-up at the concession.
· The move has stirred controversy, with some decrying the Rio as finding a loophole while the basic lay-out is still that of a theatre, with narrow entryways and tiny washrooms. Others welcome the move as innovative, a way for a theatre to survive during the closure.
Sources: CBC, Global News, Fraser Health

PROVINCIAL:
· The strange case of the CEO in disguise.
· Vancouver couple Rod and Ekaterina Baker were fined $575 after sneaking into the Yukon to try to get the vaccine for themselves.
· The couple posed as local motel workers.
· The clinic at Beaver Creek normally has one nurse and a receptionist, but a team of six was flown in to do vaccinations. Beaver Creek was chosen because “of its remoteness, elderly and population, and limited access to health care,” said Chief Angela Demit of the White River First Nation in Beaver Creek.
· The story of the wealthy executive trying to get vaccine intended for remote elderly First Nations people has not gone over well.
· Rod Baker is the Chief Executive Officer of Great Canadian Gaming, since 2011, where he earns $900,000 per year as salary, but last year also made $45.9 million from company stock options.. The company announced his resignation yesterday. The gambling company cited it’s “core values.” Ekaterina Baker is an actor, but not apparently a good enough one to fool Yukon officials. The couple chartered a flight to the Yukon.
· “We had not been imagining that someone would go to this length to mislead or deceive.” John Streicker, Yukon’s Minister of Community Services.
· The manager of the 1202 Motor Inn, where the couple claimed to work, was also rather upset. “That’s a risk (serving travellers) that we take – not a risk that somebody enforces upon us because they are too ignorant.” Staff at the Beaver Creek clinic found the couple suspicious, and phoned the motel to check on their story. While at the clinic and pretending to live and work in town, the couple rather oddly asked if anyone could drive them to the airport afterwards.
· Story from the Globe and Mail: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-great-canadian-gaming-ceo-resigns-after-being-charged-in-yukon-ove?utm_medium=email&utm_source=Coronavirus%20Update&utm_content=2021-1-25_19&utm_term=Coronavirus%20Update:%20Great%20Canadian%20Gaming%20CEO%20resigns%20after%20alleged%20botched%20disguise%20as%20Yukon%20motel%20worker%20in%20attempt%20to%20get%20COVID-19%20vaccine&utm_campaign=newsletter&cu_id=czq7hF%2BueFDcmmCKozRUQ1bduJl6paGe
· Ekaterina Baker is known for acting in productions such as Chick Fight, Fatman, The Asset, and The Comeback Trail, and as producer of Big Gold Brick.
· IMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/name/nm9698063/
· BC has adopted a four phase vaccination plan.
· Phase 1, December to February: Residents, staff, essential visitors with long-term care and assisted living; people waiting for long-term care; people in remote Indigenous communities and hospital workers caring for patients with COVID-19.
· Phase 2, February to March: Seniors over 80; Indigenous seniors over 65, Indigenous elders; more health-care workers; vulnerable populations and nursing-home staff.
· Phase 3, April to June: Members of the general public aged 60 to 79.
· Phase 4, July to September: Members of the general public aged 18 to 59.
· Premier John Horgan says the plan is based on those who get most sick, and those most likely to die, so priority goes to the elderly and vulnerable, and those who work around them.
· The Premier said multiple groups argued that they were front-line workers and so should get priority. But with vaccine supply limited, it didn’t seem to make sense to vaccinate people on the basis of their job, like being a front-line worker, ahead people ahead of seniors or those more likely to be hospitalized or to die. Health care workers are not only the most likely to be exposed, but they also work with and have direct contact with patients and the vulnerable.
· Here is a good article with the numbers and the rationale behind the priorities: https://www.newwestrecord.ca/local-news/opinion-elderly-should-get-covid-19-vaccine-before-bc-teachers-3291898
· The dates might vary, depending on supply.
· Covid cases in BC have plateaued to an average of 500 per day.
· Dr. Bonnie Henry said that the number is still dangerously high. “For the last few weeks, we have plateaued at 500 new cases. This is too many. We are at a precipice. The virus continues to circulate in our communities. We are at the threshold of where we were in late October and November when cases started to rise.”
· “Over the next two week, I believe we can bend our curve. Not just plateau, but bend it back down…. More than you’ve done before, stay home, stop social interactions.”
· B.C. will receive no new doses of vaccine over the next two weeks. It is not sure how much will be received in February.
· Over the past three days – Saturday, Sunday, Monday:
· 1,344 new cases. 618 of those in Fraser Health. 527 reported on Saturday, 472 on Sunday, 346 on Monday. 64,828 cases to date.
· 26 new deaths. 1,154 total.
· 4,392 active cases.
· 57,831 recovered.
· 11 outbreaks in long-term care declared over.
· 6 cases of the UK variant in BC, 3 cases of the South Africa variant. No community transmission of the UK variant, but the South Africa variant cases are not connected to travel and are being investigated. Dr. Henry: “I’m very concerned. I’m concerned that if those variants start to spread, it’s just going to make our job that much more difficult.”
· 119,850 doses of vaccine administered to date.
· New numbers for Tuesday:
· 14 new deaths. 1,168 total.
· 407 new cases. 65,234 total. (Comparison: a high of 911 cases happened for Nov 27).
· 313 hospitalized, 71 in intensive care. (A high of 381 were hospitalized on January 6th).
· 4,260 active cases.
· 6,450 in self-isolation.
· 58,352 recovered.
· 122,359 doses of vaccine administered to date. 4,105 are second doses.
· No new outbreaks, one outbreak declared over.
· Dr. Bonnie Henry: “For the many who have been doing your part, you may be asking, what more can I do? Be the voice of support and encouragement for those who may be wavering in their resolve.”
· New restriction may be necessary if the number begins to climb again.
· 4,850 cases among health care workers, from January 2020 to 15 January 2021. About 8% of cases.
· From January to December 17th 2020, care aides had the highest number of cases among healthcare workers at 1,193 or 24.6%. Nurses were second at 833 or 17.2%. Below are the ten highest number of cases by healthcare worker category.
· 1,193 – care aids.
· 833 – nurse.
· 304 – licensed practical nurse.
· 280 – administration.
· 177 – housekeeping.
· 156 – dental professional.
· 151 – physician.
· 149 – kitchen staff, dietary aid, food services.
· 91 – occupational therapist, physiotherapist, respiratory therapist.
· 75 – student.
· The document is here: http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/COVID_sitrep/COVID19_healthcare_workers_2021_01_15.pdf
· BC has has opened 3 clinics for people with longer term Covid symptoms.
· Located at St. Paul’s Hospital, Vancouver General, and the Outpatient Care and Surgery Centre in Surrey.
· Some people still have symptoms months after the start of the disease. Of patients who were hospitalized in BC, after three months half still had breathing issues. About 20% have permanent lung scarring.
· The St. Paul’s clinic already has 160 patients.
· Nanaimo Regional Hospital has had an outbreak.
· Two staff and a patient tested positive.
· Limited to the 4th Floor on the east wing.
· A homeless shelter in Surrey has had an outbreak.
· 2 staff and 24 clients test positive.
· The Surrey Emergency Response Centre was set up to make more shelter available to homeless people during the pandemic.
Sources: CBC, New Westminster Record, Globe and Mail, BC Centre for Disease Control.

NATIONAL:
· Worked from home during Covid-19? Be sure to check out these tax tips: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/accountants-break-down-tips-for-working-from-home-expenses-1.5872477
· Covid has been in Canada for one year now, starting back on the 25th of January, 2020, with one case in Toronto.
· Long-terms care homes are particularly hard hit, and it continues to be so that care homes are getting outbreaks.
· From the CBC, “What we’re seeing in the long-term care facilities just demonstrates, unfortunately, years and years of neglect.” https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-canada-first-case-one-year-1.5884630
· In those early days, the public was generally told in Canada that the risk was low, and that people should not wear masks, and emphasized into March that there was no community spread.
· In late February, community transmission was evidenced in the U.S., and people returning to Canada from the U.S. began to show Covid. The halt to non-essential travel, on the land border, came on March 20.
· Canada is considering more travel restrictions, says the Canadian government.
· 143 flights have arrived in Canada in past two weeks with confirmed Covid cases. Deputy Prime Minister Freeland has assured, “We are considering the issue very, very seriously.”
· In this story, you can see where Canadians are flying during the pandemic. There sure seems to be a lot of urgent need to travel to places that happen to be warm vacation spots: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/freeland-travel-restrictions-1.5887163
· There is an 8 p.m. curfew in Montreal, and that is hard on the city’s homeless people.
· Homeless people have seen a dramatic reduction in help since the pandemic began. Shelters have to have social distancing, if they are safe to open at all.
· The province has refused to exempt homeless people from the curfew. People who break the curfew are subject to fines that start at $1,000 and can go up to $6,000. Premier Legault says making an exception for homeless people could cause people to pretend to be homeless.
· Some shelters have been forced to close altogether, because they can’t meet the requirements.
· Story: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-homeless-covid-curfew-1.5880946
· 90 “adverse events following immunization,” 0.015% of the 601,901 doses administered as of January 9th 2021.
· 63 were non-serious, 0.010%. This includes things like a skin rash.
· 27 were serious, 0.004%. In Canada, this includes a wide range of symptoms from headache to nausea to anaphylaxis.
· Learn about the Canada Adverse Events Following Immunization Surveillance System (CAEFISS) here: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/immunization/canadian-adverse-events-following-immunization-surveillance-system-caefiss.html
· Here is where the numbers are updated every Friday (but not consistently): https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccine-safety/#seriousNonSerious
· Manitoba is now requiring a 14 day quarantine for non-essential travel from other parts of Canada.
· The move is being made to attempt to prevent new variants of Covid-19 from entering the province.
· Applies to air and land travel.
· Includes Manitobans who are returning to the province from elsewhere.
Sources: CBC, Toronto Star, Public Health Canada

INTERNATIONAL:
· The world is experiencing Covid-somnia – an epidemic of insomnia.
· Insomnia is now at one-quarter of the population in the UK, and at 40% in Italy and Greece.
· There is concern that this is affecting people’s health in other ways.
· Work productivity is also affected.
· A University of Ottawa study of health care workers in 55 countries and 190,000 people showed that depression, anxiety, and PTSD have all risen at least 15% since the start of the pandemic. Insomnia has risen by over 23%.
· People are advised to seek help, which many are not as people avoid medical services, or those services are unavailable. Seeking help is important, because sleep issues over time can become and ongoing sleep disorder. “Tele-health” now makes treatment more available despite the pandemic.
· Working and using screens in bed is a big part of it. The recommendation is to use your bed only as a place of sleep.
· Full article: https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20210121-the-coronasomnia-phenomenon-keeping-us-from-getting-sleep
· Vaccine delays are happening around the world.
· Canada is receiving zero doses this week.
· Health workers who were scheduled for vaccination were mostly notified by email of their cancellations.
· In Canada, 50% of doses will be delayed for up to four weeks, up to 400,000 doses delayed.
· Restoration of supply will happen in the European union before it happens in Canada. Pfizer explained this as differing contract deals but did not reveal details. Europe has also threatened to sue Pfizer for breach of contracts, and threatened to abandon Pfizer altogether as a supplier, perhaps in doing so catching the company’s attention.
· Pfizer and AstraZeneca say they will catch up to their commitments in the Spring. Pfizer says their delay is due to changing production systems, so a short-term shut down for a greater number of people vaccinated more rapidly overall. Pfizers says that they are upgrading to be able to produce 2 billion doses per year, from the current 1.3 billion. AstraZeneca has not given details.
· UPDATED: The Pfizer production facility in question is in Belgium. The European Union has threatened to ban exports of the vaccine if commitments to Europe are not met. The company is attempting to distribute the problem in the world somewhat equitably. If Europe followed through on the threat, that could mean delays for other countries would be longer, including Canada, which is served by the Belgium facility.
· The UK, having had Brexit and pulled out of the European Union, has realized that they, too, would be one of those outside countries. The UK, somewhat ironically, is now arguing against nationalism as government policy, referring to what they called “the dead end of vaccine nationalism.”
· The World Health Organization’s Covax program, to distribute vaccine around the world fairly to low-income countries, has not been affected, some good news in the mix. The Covax problem is still on schedule, as its vaccine supply is produced in India and South Korea. The program has also received a substantial boost, following US President Joe Biden’s decision to contribute $4 billion to the program.
· The CDC in the US says that allergic reactions to the vaccine are extremely rare.
· Out of 4 million given the Moderna vaccine, 10 had severe allergic reactions.
· Moderna – 2.5 per million doses have severe allergic reactions.
· Pfizer – 11.1 per million.
· Normal flu vaccine – 1.3 per million.
· Allergic reactions begin quickly, at a median of 7 and a half minutes, so people are able to be supported through it. The majority were known to have severe allergies in advance. In the US, all vaccination sites must have people trained in responding to anaphylaxis, or severe allergic reaction.
· Story: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/health/moderna-severe-allergic-reactions-rare/index.html
· A doctor in Texas has been arrested for stealing vaccine.
· The doctor stole 9 doses to give to his friends and family, authorities allege.
· A man lived in the Chicago O’Hare airport for three months because he was afraid to fly. Story: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55702003
· Los Angeles has lifted its air quality limitations for cremations. An emergency order was issued so that crematoriums can catch up with the number of bodies. One person every eight minutes was dying from Covid every 8 minutes. The rate of death in LA county is double the norm from past years. 13,800 deaths in the city, 7,400 currently hospitalized, and 23% of those in intensive care.
· Over 200 incidents with plane passengers over the wearing of masks have been reported in the U.S.
· The behaviour has included refusal to wear masks once onboard, shouting abusively at flight attendants, and even physical assault.
· On Thursday, President Biden issued an executive order requiring the wearing of masks across transportation, a move welcomed by flight unions.
· The FAA, Federal Air Administration, has introduced fines up to $35,000 and potential jailing for abusing aircraft personnel, a move made in December after two flight attendants were assaulted.
· One person has been fined $15,000 after hitting the flight attendant, and grabbing her phone away from her while she was notifying the captain of the problem. Another passenger was fined $7,500, who when asked to wear a mask approached other passengers without a mask and sexually harassed a flight attendant.
· Some airlines are banning passengers from their flights who refuse to follow the rules. United Airlines has banned 615 people from flying on the airline since June, Delta Airlines has banned 700.
· There is a lot of news about variants of the virus.
· New variants have appeared in Britain, South Africa, and Brazil, all countries that have had high rates of Covid.
· So, what about vaccines? Scientists have actually expected that vaccines would still work against the variants. Moderna says that antibodies triggered by their vaccine works on new variants in lab test results. More study will be needed of people who actually have been vaccinated and who had the variant. The study so far was a small sample of eight people. Early results with the Pfizer vaccine also show that it works against variants.
· Moderna is also studying to see if there is a benefit of giving a third booster shot.
· Reports vary almost daily about if the variants are more deadly or not. The truth is that data is too limited and it is too early to really tell.
· Covid job losses have been four times worse than in the financial crisis in 2009.
· That’s according to a report by the International Labor Organization.
· The report estimates that 8.8% of the world’s work hours were eliminated. The ILO looks not only at those who have become unemployed, but those who have had reduced hours of work as well. That loss is equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs, or $3.7 trillion dollars of income.
· Press release: https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_766949/lang--en/index.htm
· Study: COVID-19 and the world of work. Seventh edition. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_767028.pdf
· What’s the latest with the Tokyo Olympics?
· The government of Japan wants to go ahead with the Olympics that were delayed last summer.
· The Olympics are planned to start on July 23, and the Paralympics on August 24.
· The International Olympic Committee is currently planning on proceeding, but has not made a final decision. Efforts are underway to have Olympics that are Covid safe. That might mean no audiences, athletes restricted to their accommodation areas, and each sport would have to have protocols around training and competition areas.
· “We need the vaccine to come to Africa.” A note about Grandmothers in Zimbabwe. I encourage you to read this one: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55726054
Sources: BBC, Toronto Star, International Labor Organization, CNN, Los Angeles Times.

STATS (as of end of Monday)
CANADA
· 144 new deaths. 19,238 total.
· 5,628 new cases. 753,011 total.
· 1,222 fewer active. 62,446 total.
· 849 in critical care.
· 6,706 new recovered. 671,327 total.
USA
· 1,887 new deaths. 431,392 total.
· 152,244 new cases. 25,861,597 total.
· 9,812,845 active.
· 26,259 in critical care.
· 207,426 new recovered. 15,617,360 total.
WORLD
· 2,149,496 deaths.
· 100,286,772 cases.
· 72,315,474 recovered.
Sources: www.covid-19us.live/, https://www.covid-19canada.com/

Pandemic updates provided on a voluntary basis as a community service, on Tuesdays and Fridays unless circumstances do not allow (currently dealing with an injury that limits my typing).
To provide accurate and timely information, locally, provincially, nationally and internationally, all in one place.
Feel free to share.
With love and hope,
Jaimie McEvoy, City Councillor, New Westminster, B.C.
submitted by JaimieMcEvoy to NewWest [link] [comments]

Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks deleted it]

Detailed DD post [re-post after pennystocks deleted it]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is! Hope this is OK for the mods here?
--
This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios.
I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview
  • High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
  1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
  2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
  3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
  • Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
  • Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:
  • Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
  • Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
  • Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
  • New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
  1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
  2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
  • Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
  • Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
  • High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
  • Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
  • Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
  • Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
  • Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
  • There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
  • For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
  • Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
  • Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
  • This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
  • Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
  • Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
  • I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
  • Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
  • Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
  • Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management

https://preview.redd.it/5pwznbe5xmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb1be853d9db5eaa7dc3c7b26630a173bbd064cf
Valuation
  • Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
  • Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive

https://preview.redd.it/l52oajp6xmg61.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=e31e1944101c6488a24f470bc3b91744f4c2dccf
  • Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
  • Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
  • The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis

https://preview.redd.it/2j51fwigxmg61.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=f678c5c66ced846ac45fa698c7e454f71a4232b6
NB – assumed the following:
  1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
  2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
  3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
  4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation
  • US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
  • Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
  • Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
  • No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
  • Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price

https://preview.redd.it/t0im6idhxmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=4bff366e68eeeadd5ac49ab5d97885685a327a6b
Potentially misleading cost basis information
  • A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
  • As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
  • Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
  • Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
  • No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
  • Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
  • So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
If you want to check out the video, it would be appreciated: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
submitted by AlexM-YT to HighTideInc [link] [comments]

is gambling taxed in uk video

But what do gambling taxes look like around the world? While the rules are different from country to country, in many cases you’ll only be taxed if gambling is your profession or your main source of income. This means if you gamble and you win, but you have a more substantial source of income and you don’t rely on gambling to earn a living, you won’t be taxed. Here’s a chart showing ... The UK adjusted the tax terms with the Gambling Act of 2005 but retained the 15% rate until 2019, when it increased the rate to 21%. For clarity, the tax amount also varies on the profits made ... When compared to gambling taxes around the world, the UK does pretty well — collecting almost £3bn in 2018/19, as per Statista. So as the UK economy faces a slump of over 10% — according to ... Is Gambling Taxable In The UK? No, gambling is tax free in the UK. While players in some countries such as the USA, France, and Macau have to deal with gambling taxes between 1% and 25%, bettors in the United Kingdom have the privilege of keeping the entirety of their winnings. As a matter of fact, both online and offline gamblers in Britain don’t have to waste their time thinking about taxes. If you’ve been gambling for a while, you might recall dealing with betting duties years ago ... List of information about Gambling duties. Help us improve GOV.UK. To help us improve GOV.UK, we’d like to know more about your visit today. So now you know the score. The UK gambling tax laws are amongst the most flexible in the world. There is no betting in the UK (at least for players), and anything you win at online and land-based sites will not be subject to gambling tax in the UK. This is no doubt music to your ears. As a player, all you need to do now is find top gambling sites to play at to get started. On this page, you will find a plethora of Gambling and betting was not taxed effectively in the UK for most of history. Unlicensed gambling was causing such a legal and moral problem to the Victorians that the parliament of the time issued the Gaming Act of 1845. This made a wager unenforceable by law and therefore rendered all contracts between bettor and bookie invalid. The UK is one of them. Are Gambling Winnings Taxable in the UK? The short answer is no, at least not for players. No matter how much money you make in a casino, it is yours to keep. The government won’t take a penny of it. For many people, especially those not from the UK, this may seem strange. After all, why would any government, especially the one notoriously short on cash, give the punters a free pass? The answer is not that simple, but it boils down to the fact that there are easier ... Fortunately for professional gamblers, the tax authority in the UK (the HMRC) does not officially recognise ‘professional gambling’ as a taxable trade – meaning that their winnings are tax-free just like the winnings of any other player. HMRC have this to say on the matter: In general, no UK gamblers/traders will pay tax on their winnings. They are Tax Free. The Inland Revenue has now shifted to onus of any tax liable, to be paid by the companies, bookmakers, and trading outlets – such as Betfair, and this takes a whole heap of pressure of the punters/gamblers.

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