NFL predictions, spreads and picks for Week 7, 2020 - Page 2

nfl picks and predictions week 7 2020

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2020 NFL Week 7 Predictions and Odds (Free NFL Picks on Every Week 7 Game) | Prezidential Address

2020 NFL Week 7 Predictions and Odds (Free NFL Picks on Every Week 7 Game) | Prezidential Address submitted by WagerTalk to WagerTalk [link] [comments]

Game Matchups Preview AFC Championship: Bills @ Chiefs

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills’ roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 19th iteration of this analysis for the Bills’ upcoming AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in Kansas City. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long then you are well aware that these playoff posts are significantly longer. The increased length is intended to provide more details on the Bills’ opponent, including basic breakdowns of their offensive and defensive philosophies. If this is your first time reading this post and/or you are a Chiefs’ fan, feedback is always welcome!
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Defense
In 2020 the Buffalo Bills have gone from “Lovable Losers” to one of the most feared franchises in the NFL. A team which just last season was considered one built on a foundation of a fearsome defense and a mobile Quarterback has undergone a shift in perception rarely seen in the NFL. Yes, that defense is still scary (More on that later) and yes, the man under Center can still run (Also more on that later) but the evolution of two players in particular have altered the way that opposing teams, and their fans, view the Buffalo Bills. The first some may consider the Bills’ 2020 1st round pick and since arriving in Buffalo has done nothing less than stake his claim as one of, if not the, best WRs in the NFL, Stefon Diggs. Diggs has beaten anyone and everyone in front of him collecting 6+ catches in 17 out of his 18 games totaling 141 catches for 1770 yards and 10 TDs. These gaudy statistics are just the tangible portion of what Diggs has brought to the Bills while the intangible is derived from his mere presence, which has ignited a swagger not seen in Buffalo since, well, ever. Throwing him the ball is a man that has been analyzed and critiqued ad nauseum, the newest member of the Fraternity of Franchise QBs, Joshua Patrick Allen. At 5,564 yards and 50 TDs Allen has entrenched himself in the top tier of QBs, a set of players that defensive coordinators look to contain as opposed to stopping entirely and though few achieve this level of NFL success note that doing so does not preclude them from the occasional rough stretch.
And that is exactly what happened to Josh Allen during the 4-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 8. In that span Allen, who would finish the regular season with a Passer Rating (PR) of 107.2, had a PR of just 79.2. This included a game against the Bills’ AFC Championship Game opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, where Allen had his worst Completion % of the season (51.9%) and his second lowest PR (73.4). Many have pondered what the root cause(s) of these struggles were for a QB who now will likely finish Top-3 in MVP voting, and two causes tend to be consistently repeated. The first of these, the weather, can easily be debunked. Against the Chiefs Josh Allen’s adjusted completion % (Less Drops) was 56.0% while Patrick Mahomes who, played in the same weather, had an adjusted completion % of 91.3%. It’s hard to fathom that the weather was such a detriment to only one QB that it resulted in him being 35.3% less “accurate” than the other. The second is a bit harder to debunk and is actually backed by some “expert” testimony. Just 15 days earlier in a game against Las Vegas, Allen would be hit awkwardly while attempting to extend a play and suffer an injury to his non-dominant (left) shoulder resulting in what many believe to have been a grade 1 AC Joint sprain. An injury which takes between 4-6 weeks to heal fits the timeline of Allen’s 4 weeks of below average QB play and is even propped up by 3-time Pro Bowl QB Matt Hasselback agreeing that such an injury makes it more difficult for a Quarterback to deliver a pass to his target accurately. Out of these two I find the injury much more plausible but after going back and watching the Chiefs @ Bills’ game I find it hard to believe either of these were the primary reason for the Chiefs domination of the Bills’ passing attack. With that in mind the best explanation, and what I believe to be the most likely, is that Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnuolo simply had a brilliant game plan which the Chiefs executed perfectly ultimately slowing down the air attack of the Buffalo Bills.
The Chiefs plan was simple yet concise, blitz from all different angles while disguising coverage pre-snap. They would finish the game with 14 blitzes sending a total of 26 blitzers, 12 from LBs (Hitchens, Wilson, & Niemann), 3 from CBs (Fenton & Breeland), and 11 from Safeties (Mathieu & Sorensen). This constant shift in the level extra pass rushers were coming from often left the Bills’ OL scrambling to recover resulting in their QB being pressured on a season high 35.5% of dropbacks (His season average is 20.7%). Simultaneously the Chiefs were mixing Man and Zone coverage schemes which often included a deep spy that was keying off Josh Allen’s eyes. Allowing the Chiefs to accomplish this was a secondary stacked with “Jack-Of-All-Trades” CBs and one of the better safety trios, yes trios, in the NFL championed by a possible future HOF. Charvarius Ward, Bashaud Breeland, Rashad Fenton, and L’Jarius Sneed are all capable of covering the X, Y, or Z allowing the Chiefs to conceal their coverages and trade off assignments at will. Breeland the most notorious and proficient of the three works with hands on his assignment in order to control their movement and was flagged a total of 9 times this season, 3 of which came against the Bills. Behind them is a trio of Safeties that make the entire defense click; Daniel Sorensen, Tyrann Mathieu, and Juan Thornhill, who is primarily used in Nickel sets which the Chiefs run north of 60% of the time. Sorensen is as close as you can get to a modern-day John Lynch, a hard-hitting safety with ball skills that allow him to effectively play Center Field on deep passes. Mathieu is the afore mentioned HOF hopeful and can play anywhere from the LOS to a deep prevent position. One of the most feared defenders in all of football expect the Honey Badger to spy Josh Allen more than any other player on the Chiefs and make a few highlight reel plays at Arrowhead Sunday night.
Ultimately this matchup comes down to two things, can the Bills OL recognize the blitz pre-snap and can the Bills’ receivers find holes in the defense. From the perspective of the OL they are vastly improved since their last matchup with the Chiefs with Ike Boettger replacing Brian Winters at LG and Jon Feliciano returning from injury to man the RG position. These two bring a physicality to the OL which was surely lacking prior to their arrival. At the receiver position there is a bit more concern with Gabe Davis a DNP and both Cole Beasley & Stefon Diggs limited as of Thursday night’s injury report. It is a near certainty that both Beasley and Diggs will see the field Sunday night, but the possible loss of Gabe Davis looms large. The good news for Bills’ fans is that this is the exact reason the Bills went out and got Kenny Stills so if Gabe Davis is truly a no go expect to see Stills for the first time in a Bills’ uniform. There are two more dark horse candidates for a big game through the air, WR Isaiah McKenzie and TE Dawson Knox. McKenzie has played just 12 snaps so far throughout the playoffs but is due for a push pass or two especially against a blitz heavy team like the Chiefs. As for Dawson Knox his size and athleticism may be too much for the Chiefs LBs to handle which would then require Daniel Sorensen to come down into coverage. This would keep Sorensen out of the box and free up more underneath routes for the Bills. As with every week it comes down to individual matchups and whoever wins theirs will win this one. P.S. Don’t forget about John “Smoke” Brown.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Defense
While the Passing Game for the Bills has evolved into one of the best in the NFL the running game has regressed to the bottom tier of the league. This ineptitude has reached new depths with the Bills’ Running Backs combining for just 71 rushing yards (Josh Allen has 57) over the first two games of the playoffs. For context, all Non-Bills’ Playoff games have featured at least one player with 75+ rushing yards. Bills Mafia has been aware of these struggles since early in the season and exorcised their demons by lighting into OC Brian Daboll after he “excessively” ran the ball against the Colts. The following week, against the Ravens, Daboll flipped the script handing the ball off just 1 time in the first half and 9 times total to RBs who combined for a Y/A of just 3.2. It is abundantly clear to not just the Buffalo Bills but every other team in the NFL that this Bills’ team is a pass first team however, some semblance of balance will be needed if they are to reach the full potential necessary to chase down the Lombardi trophy.
Dependent on the gameplan which the Chiefs employ, running the ball could be an important part of the Bills’ offense on Sunday night. If the Chiefs do force the issue the Bills will be contending with the 19th ranked team in Y/A that just gave up over 5.0 Y/A against the Browns in the Divisional round. Of course that’s a Browns’ team that has both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt who were running behind one of the best run blocking OLs (#6 Adjusted Line Yards) in the NFL however, the Browns success against the Chiefs does not necessitate similar results for the Bills’ Devin Singletary and T.J. Yeldon who are running behind an inferior run blocking OL (#15 Adjusted Line Yards). Making it even more unlikely that the Bills could find success with a similar style of play is that most of the Browns’ success came when running the ball between the tackles. On 19 RB carries the Browns had 7 that went for 5+ yards 5 of which came when attacking this area. This relied heavily on the Browns interior line controlling the opposing DTs allowing the runners to get to the second level.
There is a further problem with this plan of attack though and he goes by the name of Chirs Jones. The massive 5-year vet drafted in the 2nd round out of Mississippi St. is a rare talent in the NFL, a game wrecker that can alter the outcome of any week. When talking about the best DTs in the NFL you will often hear names like Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, and Cameron Heyward but outside of Donald, there may be no one better at the position than Chris Jones. For his massive frame, 6’6” 310lb, Jones possesses incredible quickness that provides him with a tool bag of moves that range from outright bull rushes to tight swim moves. Jones is a pass rush expert that often finds his way into the lap of opposing QBs but his consistency in disrupting the run is what makes him one of the best all-around defenders in football. A disruptive bowling ball next to him comes in the form of NT Derrick Nnadi who I would doubt exceeds 50% of the defensive snaps this week with the Chiefs likely electing to go lighter in an effort to further disrupt the Bills’ passing attack. This means you should expect to see significantly more of the Chiefs primary 3-man DE rotation in Tershawn Wharton, Frank Clark, and Tanoh Kpassagnon. Like their comrades in the secondary each of these 3 players can play multiple positions provided by their quickness to set the edge and the size and strength to stuff the middle making them nightmare matchups for contending offensive linemen.
This all leads to the consensus that whether it be Devin Singletary, T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, Devonta Freeman, or even Reggie Gilliam the Bills will struggle to move the ball on the ground consistently, but they do have one X-Factor. That man is their rumbling bumbling 6’5” 240lb buffalo of a man, quarterback Josh Allen. In the last game against Kansas City Allen was able to account for 42 rushing yards on 8 carries often finding a corner to run to and beating the Chiefs LBs to the spot. The Chiefs have 3 good ones in Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson, and Ben Niemann who are all talented football players with large frames that allow them to handle extra blockers but that comes with a limitation to speed and quickness over the middle. The Bills will need to occasionally find success on the ground if they want to win the Time of Possession battle and all signs point to any success in the matter only available via one avenue, the legs of #17.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Offense
The Buffalo Bills play one of the most difficult defensive schemes to master in all of football, the Palms Defense. At a very high level this Zone scheme is built on the coverage units’ ability to communicate and trade off players as they get deeper into their routes. Its effectiveness begins with its pre-snap deceit which some Quarterbacks will find difficult to identify but culminates post-snap where it is nearly impossible to determine where the reads and tradeoffs will occur. It is the defensive equivalent of the Zone-Read offense and flips the advantage to favor the defense. This scheme has been utilized since Sean McDermott became the head coach of the Bills in 2017 and has resulted in them finishing no lower in Passer Rating (PR) against than 6th since that point in time. Even the 2020 Buffalo Bills would finish the season 5th overall with a PR against of 86.9 which early in the season seemed like an impossible feat.
Up until the Chiefs’ game the Bills were being torched through the air with a PR against of 103.6. If that were to have continued for the entire 2020 campaign the Bills would have finished 29th in the NFL in this statistic. This reached its crescendo against the Chiefs where despite bailing out to stop the pass, and then getting gashed on the ground, the Bills still managed to give up a PR of 128.4. There was clearly something wrong with a passing defense that by all measures had regressed as much or more so than the Bills’ QB had progressed, so I sought out to determine what the issue was. After a quick re-watch of the Chiefs’ game I came to find that the Palms defense was breaking down repeatedly with no clearer example than Travis Kelce’s second touchdown reception. I won’t rehash the entire analysis (If interested read the beginning of Bills’ Passing Defense here) but the tradeoffs necessitated by Palms were failing at nearly every turn. Something happened after the Chiefs game though, and the Bills began to find a rhythm. In fact, they found such a rhythm that through the remainder of the season they would hold opposing teams to a PR of just 72.6 and have continued that dominance in the playoffs allowing one of just 78.9. This Bills’ team that spent the early part of the 2020 season struggling to stop inferior opponents from moving the ball through the air and is now the best remaining team at stopping it which could come in handy with the remaining playoff QBs being Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and…
Patrick Mahomes. For the sake of this post I’m ignoring the “Will He, Won’t He” on whether or not he will play because I am fairly confident “He Will”. So, what is left to be said about Patrick Mahomes? Over the first few seasons of his career he owns just about every record a QB can own as well as an MVP award, a Lombardi Trophy, and a Super Bowl MVP. My definition of a “Gunslinger” Mahomes is willing to attempt any throw on the football field and can make any of those throws. As much as, if not more so than, Josh Allen, Mahomes’ excels when he breaks the pocket and the play falls apart leaving him to ad-lib with a slew of weapons and a well-coached offense that is able to take advantage of recovering defenders. Always the best player on the field, when Mahomes is on there is almost no stopping him and frankly, when he is off it’s still nearly impossible. The recipe for beating him is simply stated, and difficult to execute, the 1 or 2 throws a game where he misses his target, must be converted into turnovers.
This is in no way meant as a slight to Mahomes however, he has the perfect players around him that allow him to execute his game as he desires. On the one hand is Travis Kelce who may go down in history as the greatest TE to ever play the position and is, in my opinion, the best receiving threat to ever do it. In 2020 Kelce played just 15 games but broke the record for receiving yards by a TE with 1416 while raking in 105 catches and 11 TDs. The Bills attempt to limit him by alternating their LBs and Safeties onto him which results in the Bills spending more time in Big Nickel pushing players like Siran Neal onto the field more often. Next up is the man known as “Cheetah”, Tyreek Hill. Hill is one of the more disrespected on field talents in the NFL and statistically is right there with players like Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Better yet, Hill fits Mahomes in the same way Diggs fits Allen except as more of a home run threat that is going to consistently test Micah Hyde’s prowess as one of the best prevent safeties in the NFL. Outside of Hill and Kelce there are a ton of other weapons for this passing game to utilize. The speedy Mecole Hardman, the “Real Deal” Demarcus Robinson, and the Bills’ previous #4 overall pick Sammy Watkins. Pick your poison against this team but regardless the Bills’ CBs and especially their Safeties will have their hands full Sunday night.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Offense
The Bills’ rushing defense is coming off a game in which they may not have shut down the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack, but they surely contained it. This was a Ravens’ team that led the NFL in Rushing Y/G at 191.2 and Y/A at 5.5 and managed just 150 yards at 4.7 Y/A against the Bills. How was Buffalo able to do this? Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier challenged the Ravens to beat them through the air by running 3 LB sets on 41% of snaps and bringing down one of Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde to stack the box with 7 or 8 players on nearly every play. This, often, left the Bills’ DBs matched up in a rare version of single coverage which the Bills won on a consistent basis. An eye-opening game for the Bills and one that they won because of scheme, a scheme they can’t afford to run against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs are more than competent of moving the ball on the ground, when at full health. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) burst onto the scene early in 2020 and was on pace to finish with just around 1000 rushing yards before suffering a substantial high-ankle sprain against the Saints on December 20th. Sidelined now for just over 1 month CEH is bordering on healthy enough to play with the average recovery time between 4-6 weeks. If CEH cannot suit up the likely replacement for him is not Le’Veon Bell (Who is now dealing with a knee injury) but instead 3rd year back Darrel Williams. In the Chiefs’ 1st playoff game against the Browns Williams would finish with 13 carries to Bells’ 2. Primarily a deep depth player Williams is getting more work now than he has at any other point in his professional career. Dynamic enough a player in his Senior season at LSU, with 1151 yards and 9 TDs on 168 touches, the Chiefs took a flyer on him picking him up as an undrafted rookie in 2018. A 1-cut back that finishes downhill Williams who is listed at 5’11” 224lb looks much smaller but plays like a bruiser. As for the previously mentioned Le’Veon Bell, he has exceeded 35% of offensive snaps just once since joining the Chiefs and saw a season low of 16% in the first round of the playoffs. I postured it when it happened but with the Bills in the mix for Bell earlier in the season is it possible the Chiefs were keeping him away from a team they could see in the AFC Championship game? Something to think about.
In front of whoever is running the ball is an offensive line, that like the Bills, looks a little different from the last time these two teams faced off. At Center the Chiefs elected to start veteran Daniel Kilgore over presumptive starter Austin Reiter. Reiter would eventually regain his starting role in Week 9 and will get the start against the Bills on Sunday. At RT Mitchell Schwartz started the game against Buffalo but after suffering a back injury early in that game has now been replaced by ex-Bucs, Chargers, Panthers, Rams, Vikings, and Giants tackle Mike Remmers. The other 3 positions are held by men that Bills saw in their last matchup. Andre Wylie (RG), an undrafted free agent from 2018, and Nick Allegretti (LG), a 7th round pick in 2019, man the guard positions where they combine to be roughly 630 pounds and are capable of pushing the DTs in front of them back into opposing LBs. The OL is topped off by its headliner, Left Tackle, Eric Fisher who earned his second Pro Bowl nod this season and has been one of the more consistent linemen in the NFL over his 8-year career which started with him being the #1 overall pick in 2013. Fisher has incredibly quick feet and long arms which will provide him an advantage over whichever pass rusher lines up over him.
I would not be surprised in the least if the Bills employ the same defensive scheme they did against the Chiefs in their first matchup during the AFC Championship game. Forcing the Chiefs to run the ball at a defense which now includes the most underrated player in all the NFL, Matt Milano, should play right into Buffalo’s hands. If the Chiefs take the bait and elect to go this route it should surprise everyone if they exceed their 221 rushing yards from the previous matchup. The Bills’ Front 7 has vastly improved since that matchup and should see new faces, including Harrison Phillips, making plays up front. Expect a light lineup at times during the game meaning more Ed Oliver and Quinton Jefferson as the Bills’ attempt to pressure Mahomes and force the Chiefs to run up the middle. This puts heavy reliance on the Bills’ LBs to clean up the scraps which via dramatic improvement, Tremaine Edmunds looks more capable of now than at any other point in the season. One player that goes un-talked about way more than he should is Safety Jordan Poyer. A massive Pro Bowl snub, Poyer is playing with a chip on his shoulder and under the bright lights with a chance to prove why he is not just one of the best in the AFC but the entire NFL, expect a big game from him and keep your eyes peeled for his use of the “Peanut Punch”.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Chiefs’ Special Teams
Coming into the playoffs the Buffalo Bills were widely considered to have one of the best ST units in the entire NFL, which has been tested through 2 weeks. In the Wildcard round the Buffalo Bills played the Indianapolis Colts whose Special Teams consisted of above average return groups, excellent coverage units, a similar kicker to the Bills, and one of the more efficient punters in the NFL. The Bills may have lost the field position battle here but when calling upon their punter and kicker they answered the bell every time while a Colts’ missed kick ultimately decided the game. Against the Ravens the Bills would play one of, if not, the greatest kickers of all time in Justin Tucker, a punter that had barely given up any return yards, and solid return and coverage teams. As the game ended the Bills and Ravens’ Punters paced each other, as did the Bills rookie Kicker to Justin Tucker, while Andre Roberts was the only return man able to pick up yards in the return game (34 in total). Were these decisive victories for the Bills against opposing Special Teams? No. But when going against the best and at a minimum finishing neck and neck with them the Bills’ Special Teams have clearly announced themselves as a weapon in the playoffs.
As we roll on in the playoffs I would not be surprised if, though I would advise against, this is the last time we see Andre Roberts in a Buffalo Bills’ uniform. Still, the 2020 2nd Team All-Pro is a weapon for Buffalo and while he still is yet to score a TD for the Bills don’t be surprised if he has a splash play or two left in him. Heck, there is even a chance he could be the deciding factor between the Chiefs and Bills. At Punter is Corey Bojorquez who has had a Renaissance of a season and is undoubtedly in the upper echelon of Punters in the NFL. Last is Bills’ Kicker Tyler Bass who against the Ravens missed his first FG kick(s) since his 61-yard miss against Seattle back in early November. Bass quietly put together a rookie season for the ages and looks to be on the trajectory to emerge as one of the better kickers in the NFL.
For the Chiefs they trot out 2019 Pro Bowl return man Mecole Hardman who is one of the scarier return men in the NFL. In 2020 his stats have dropped off drastically as he has fallen to 7.0 Y/PR (9.3 in 2019) and 20.4 Y/KR (26.1 in 2020). Still Hardman did bring a punt back for a TD this season and has 4.33 40yd speed making him a dangerous return man to contend with on Sunday. This means for the 3rd straight game Bills’ fans can expect Buffalo to bypass their short kick strategy and kick the ball out of the back of the endzone. At Punter is Tommy Townsend the rookie out of Florida who had a solid campaign as a Punter in his first season. Townsend would finish the season with a Punt Avg of 45.0 and a Net Punt Avg of 40.4 right around the middle of the NFL in both categories. At kicker is Harrison Butker who at times is in contention for best kicker in the NFL and at others misses kicks that even Sam Ficken could hit. On the regular season Butker went 25 of 27 on Field Goals with misses from 42 and 48 but just 48 of 54 (88.9%) from XP. In his first playoff game against the Browns Butker would go on to miss 1 of 2 FGs (33yd) and 1 XP. This is without a doubt something to monitor during the AFC Championship.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏
Why We Will Lose
All season long these posts have been filled with a recurring statement, “The Buffalo Bills are the more talented football team”. Sure, I could argue that to be true this week, but I could just as easily argue that the Chiefs are more talented. It all starts on offense where a large amount of the credit is owed to…Andy Reid? Yes, Andy Reid the coach who had turned Donovan McNabb into a household name, Michael Vick into an MVP contender, and Alex Smith into a perennial winner as a starting QB has now been handed the keys to a QB who may just be better than all of them combined. Reid will find the weak points in the Bills’ defense and he will attack them over and over until the Chiefs put up enough points to win the game. Kelce is a mismatch, Hill is a zone breaker, they will run the ball effectively, and Mahomes will make big play after big play.
And then there’s their unheralded defense that has quietly been improving as the season went on and at points was the key to them winning football games. They have the two dynamos in Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones who have been described in detail above while the other 9 players on the field with them complement each other well. The Chiefs will send complex blitzes at Allen, stuff the run, blow up the Bills’ receivers and force multiple turnovers turning what should be a close game into a blowout. All those statements are feasible outcomes of this game and if even a portion of them were to occur expect the Chiefs to head to their second straight Super Bowl.
Why We Will Win
This is not the same Bills’ team that the Chiefs played on October 19th. This isn’t the same Bills’ team that people have known for the past quarter century. Instead this is a Bills’ team that has showed an affinity for showing up when the whole world is watching. Led by one of the toughest coaches in the NFL the Bills will arrive in Kansas City prepared and their OC, Brian Daboll, will have a gameplan ready to attack a Chiefs’ defense which does not match up well with the Bills’ offense. Yes, they have a competent secondary but if Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters were unable to shutdown Stefon Diggs who on the Chiefs will be able to? Factor that in with the other weapons the Bills have in the passing game and a Quarterback that will surely exceed what he did the last time these two teams met, and the Bills are on the precipice of a 30+ point outing.
Is this the same defense that the Chiefs saw in the early part of the 2020 season? No. Back then the Bills’ Palms defense was struggling, and they were without the player that makes their defense hum, OLB Matt Milano. Still, the defense came inches away from turning the tide of the game in October when Justin Zimmer tackled CEH for a 4-yard loss and what looked to be a fumble but was later overturned. By mere inches the Chiefs avoided giving the ball to the Bills on the 35-yard line up 6 with 5:23 left to play. But close only counts in horseshoes in hand grenades and on Sunday night this Bills’ defense isn’t looking for close enough, they are looking to dominate. Turnovers are the key for the Bills and if Buffalo can limit them on their side and force 2+ by KC then the Buffalo Bills who are STARVING to get to a Super Bowl will punch their ticket to Tampa Bay.
Prediction: Bills 31 – Chiefs 28
Coming into writing this post I was confident I was going to choose the Chiefs to win this game. They already beat the Bills this season, the game is in Kansas City, and the Chiefs are experienced in the AFC Championship. Then I started looking at the matchups and I noticed that most of the downfalls of their previous game resembled more aberrations than dominations. Don’t get me wrong the Chiefs could easily win this game but something just feels right about picking Buffalo this week. I expect this game to go down as one of those instant classics we talk about years from now and possibly start a new rivalry in the NFL. At the end of the day I think there will be one big play that decides this game. It could be a Honey Badger strip sack, could be a tip drill between Hyde and Poyer, could be a last second scramble by Patty Mahomes, or could be a rocket thrown by Josh Allen hitting Diggs deep. But I’ll take the Bills making that play. So, Mount Up Mafia, it’s almost game time.
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Game Matchups Preview Playoffs Round #2: Bills vs. Ravens

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 18th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Ravens. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long be prepared, these playoff posts are very long and highly detailed. If this is your first time reading, I hope you enjoy and can find the time to finish the whole thing.
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Ravens’ Passing Defense
After yet another great performance throwing the ball the Buffalo Bills are proving that they can beat anyone and everyone through the air. In their past 4 games the Bills have played the #11 (DEN), #18 (NWE), #6 (MIA), and #8 (IND) pass defenses, according to Football Outsiders Pass Defense DVOA, and have gone 108/153 (70.6%) for 1415 yards and a 12:2 TD:INT Ratio (Josh Allen’s stats here). Making the Bills recent run of success more impressive is that they have been successful against starkly different schemes, with tangible evidence the past two weeks. The Dolphins, who predominately run man coverage, were shredded for 388 passing yards, 124 of which came while targeting First Team All-Pro CB Xavien Howard. The Bills followed up this performance with Josh Allen picking apart the Colt’s Zone First Scheme for a Playoff leading passer rating of 121.6 (His regular season Passer Rating was 107.2). All of this leads to the following conclusion, with the way the Bills are playing right now there does not seem to be any specific scheme, team, or player that is capable of stopping the Bills’ passing attack.
Against the Ravens the Bills will need to find a way to beat Press Man Coverage. With one of the most physically gifted set of DBs in the NFL, headlined by Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens are particularly adept at this scheme. Their top two corners have both earned All-Pro honors at least once in their career primarily due to their physicality, but it is their ball skills which put them over the top. In 164 combined games Peters and Humphrey have 42 INTs, 20 FF, 11 FR, and 9 Defensive TDs. With the growing expectation that the Bills will primarily run 10 personnel (1RB, 4WR) the Ravens will likely spend the majority of Saturday in their Nickel package meaning that Jimmy Smith will join the previously mentioned CBs on the field. This sets up likely man matchups of Peters on Diggs, Smith on Brown, Humphrey in the Slot covering Beasley, and one of the two safeties (Chuck Clark, DeShon Elliott) on Gabe Davis. In this alignment the Ravens would be forced to choose between blitzing the safety not covering Davis or having that player shade deep over the top to Diggs side of the field. At the end of the day this will be a game of 1-on-1 matchups with the winner determined by which side can consistently beat the other.
The Ravens’ Press Man is able to excel because of their skill in the secondary but where it becomes one of the most dangerous schemes in the NFL is their proficiency and consistency in rushing the passer. For the 3rd straight season the Ravens lead the NFL in Blitz %, this year blitzing 44.1% of the time (Dolphins are 2nd at 40.6%). This facilitated an environment where the Ravens were able to pressure opposing QBs on 24.0% of their drop backs (NFL-11) and sack those QBs 39 times (NFL-14). The Press Man and Pass Rush work in concert by reducing the ability for offenses to complete quick short passes which then allows the pass rush more time to disrupt the QB. The Ravens will send anywhere from 5-8 players at the QB with the players primarily running up field being Patrick Queen (MLB) and Matt Judon (OLB) but when forced into Nickel concepts the Ravens will not hesitate to send either safety. All of this allowed the 2019 Ravens to put constant pressure on Josh Allen during their game last season ultimately resulting in 5 sacks for a loss (6 total) with 4 of them occurring with 5+ blitzers (#1, #2, #3, #4). It is however important to note that the Buffalo Bills offense from 2019 looks absolutely nothing like they do in 2020, in fact it is remarkable how drastically different they truly look.
This matchup comes down to the Bills receivers being able to beat whichever DB is lined up in front of them. If the Bills can accomplish this, then it will allow Allen to get rid of the ball before the Ravens pass rush is able to get to him. If the reverse were to occur it will create an environment where multiple blindside forced fumbles and/or interceptions may occur which would be incredibly difficult for the Bills to recover from. While on paper this matchup may be extremely close the reality is that the Bills simply have to many weapons that excel at beating man coverage for the Ravens to consistently stop. Stefon Diggs is widely regarded as one of the best receivers against man coverage in the entire NFL while the quickness of Cole Beasley provides for the ability to continuously beat man coverage in the intermediate range. Couple this with the Ravens struggles in covering TEs and RBs while still considering that the Ravens will need to find a way to contend with Gabe Davis and John Brown and the Bills, surprisingly, have a massive advantage here.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Defense
With Zack Moss going down with a season ending injury Wildcard weekend most Bills’ fans have spent this week wondering who RB2 will be behind Devin Singletary. Up until Thursday afternoon it was very clearly a three-horse race between T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, and Devonta Freeman but via a statement from Sean McDermott we now know the winner of that race. T.J. Yeldon will suit up on Saturday night and be the RB2 behind Devin Singletary. McDermott also did make it very clear that this did not preclude the Bills from activating Antonio Williams for the Ravens game. Regardless of if it is one or two backs behind Singletary we can say with a fair degree of certainty that he will be the Bellcow back moving forward for Buffalo, meaning you can expect him to see north of 75% of the offensive snaps. One concern with that is in games where Singletary has exceeded 60% of offensive snaps (6) in 2020 he has a Y/A of 3.6 and in all other games he has a Y/A of 5.1. Let me make this abundantly clear, and see all of my previous posts for proof, I believe that the majority of the issues running the ball in 2020 are due to the blocking up front and not the RBs carrying the ball however, this stark contrast in Y/A should be a concern moving forward for a Bills’ team who at times will need to show they can move the ball on the ground if they want to continue winning football games.
This section now lends itself to a breakdown of the backups to Singletary on Saturday, one we know, and one is a maybe. With that in mind we start with T.J. Yeldon who has demonstrated the ability to be a competent runner of the football throughout his career with an acceptable 4.1 Y/A. Yeldon possesses exceptional agility for a player that is 6’1” 225lb and at times in his career has been one of the more dangerous receiving options in the NFL coming out of the backfield. The main knock Bills’ fans have on Yeldon is his fumbling where he has lost the ball 7 times on 677 career touches (1 per 97), for context Singletary has 5 on 374 (1 per 75). Next to discuss is the new darling of Bills Mafia, undrafted rookie Antonio Williams. One of the bigger unknowns on the Bills’ roster, Williams busted onto the scene against Miami with 83 all-purpose yards on 13 touches for 2 TDs in just one half. Out of UNC the 5’11” 215lb RB, who looks and plays much bigger, possesses exceptional lateral quickness and does not shy away from contact making him a dangerous player once he gets to the second level. Also, while it is highly improbable, we see him Saturday, I would be remised to not mention the signing of 2-time Pro Bowler Devonta Freeman who just a few years back was considered one of the best RBs in the game. Freeman suffered a groin injury in 2018 which required surgery which has since deprived him of some of the quickness that made him one of the biggest home run threats in the league. Still, Freeman provides a veteran presence with gas left in the tank, at just 28, he could be an integral part of the Bills’ Playoff push. All these players may play a factor if the Bills continue to advance in the playoffs, but Bills Mafia should fully expect T.J. Yeldon to do so on Saturday night.
If and when the Bills do run the ball, they will be doing so against a team which ranks 26th in the NFL (The Bills rank 24th) in Y/A against at 4.6. The Ravens also rank 27th in both 20+ A (1 per 32) and 40+ A (1 per 127) which is indicative of their blitz dependent defense. When the Ravens defense aligns with the proper gap they typically bring the ball carrier down in the backfield as the team has combined for 71 TFLs but when they miss ball carriers tend to pick up chunk yardage leaving their secondary to clean up free runners. This of course assumes the ball carrier can bypass the Ravens’ 3-4 alignment which is championed by one of the deeper DLs in all of football. On the right side is, long time Broncos DE, Derek Wolfe who typically lines up somewhere from the B to C gap and is one of the better run stuffers at the position. In the middle is the behemoth known as Brandon Williams who specializes as a NT, a dying position in the NFL that Williams still excels at. Lastly left of Williams is Calais Campbell who while listed as a DE plays more like a DT because of the blitz packages which the Ravens use. Campbell may be 34 and towards the end of his career but this exceptionally physical and athletic lineman will threaten Bills LG Ike Boettger all night.
The last group of players to cover for the Ravens is one of the most athletically gifted groups in the entire NFL, the Ravens LBs. Strength, Speed, Quickness, you name it, the 6 primary LBs on this team have it all. They are headlined by 21-year-old MLB Patrick Queen who ran a blazing 4.5 at the rookie combine in 2020. About as promising as they come Queen lead the Ravens in Tackles and TFLs and will challenge Josh Allen on any QB Draws the Bills may attempt. Next to him is either Pass Rush specialist Matt Judon or Pass Coverage specialist Tyus Bowser. Judon earned his second straight Pro Bowl selection because of his propensity to pressure the QB with his 4th straight season of 6+ sacks from the OLB position. Bowser, not nearly the pass rusher Judon is, instead has 3 INTs this season and an astounding 42.2 passer rating against (On just 15 targets). There are other players of note like ILB L.J. Fort, long time vet Pernell McPhee, or even the highly sought after Yannick Ngakoue but all you really need to know is that regardless of pass or run this unit has the ability to get into the backfield or chase down players that get outside of it.
EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Ravens’ Passing Offense
Against the Colts the Bills’ struggled at times against the pass with the most damage coming from the Colts’ TEs and the 6’4” rookie WR Michael Pittman. In isolation Phillip Rivers 300+ pass yard day implies that the secondary struggled covering their responsibilities, in reality the issue lay elsewhere. Rivers finished the 2020 season with a Time-to-Throw of just 2.52s (NFL-6) which he continued into the playoffs making it difficult for the Bills to get any pressure on the Indy QB. In fact, it was so difficult that the Bills had only 1 QB hit the entire game. This is the same team that in their last 6 games, post their Bye Week, was averaging 5.5 QB Hits per game. With the Bills running the Palms Scheme they are highly dependent on either pressure or extended Time-to-Throw in order to get into their secondary transitions, neither of those happened on Saturday which is why the Colts were so successful through the air.
Against the Ravens the Bills should be able to get more players in the vicinity of Lamar Jackson than they did Rivers. Of the 41 players with more than 128 pass attempts in 2020 Lamar ranked 38th in Time-To-Throw holding onto the ball for an average of 2.98 seconds. This was a primary reason that Lamar was sacked 29 times (NFL-13) and fumbled the ball 10 times. Obviously, the challenge here is that while teams can occasionally get pressure on Lamar, and even bring him down, the counter of his rushing ability poses a bigger threat (More on that in the rushing section). Credit is still due to Lamar and his OL who lost 2019 All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley to an ankle injury just 6 games into the season and had to flip their RT, Orlando Brown Jr., over to LT and plug and play from there. While the main threat of Lamar is undoubtedly his legs, he did finish 2020 with 2757 passing yards, 26 Passing TDs, and just 9 INTs by utilizing his receiving weapons to the best of their abilities.
At receiver the Ravens don’t have one imposing weapon, but they do have a slew of good options. First and foremost of these options is 2019 1st round draft pick Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who some tried to drop the “Bust” tag on in the middle of the season after he had a 4-game stretch where he caught just 6 balls for 55 yards and 1 TD. In opposition to that ideal try taking those 4 games out of the season and then pacing it to 16 games, when doing that Browns’ season would be 65 catches for 892 yards and 9 TDs, a solid season for any NFL player. He also answered the bell Wildcard weekend raking in 7 catches for 109 yards against a stout Tennessee secondary. Outside of him the only other receivers of note are Willie Snead, a vet who built his name in New Orleans and is a solid option at WR, Devin Duvernay, a lightning quick 2020 3rd round draft pick, and Miles Boykin, their big bodied WR who has a knack for bodying opposing defenders. But by far their most dangerous weapon in the passing game is not a WR but instead their TE, one of the best in the league, Mark Andrews. Andrews is a walking Tonka Truck that is built the same way as Dawson Knox with better hands and a more complete set of receiving skills. This is Lamar’s check down option which is a primary reason he shared the team lead in receptions (58) and finished second in receiving yards (701) meaning he should be the Bills’ biggest concern in the air on Saturday night.
For the Bills to dominate this battle they will need to get pressure on Lamar while simultaneously maintaining contain to avoid him escaping the pocket. Assuming they can accomplish this, which is a tall order, they will need to avoid letting all 3 of the Ravens primary receivers beat them deep and put a big body, say Tremaine Edmunds, on Mark Andrews. RBs have yet to prove a consistent threat for the Ravens through the air in 2020 accounting for just 15.8% of targets and 18.3% of catches but are something to monitor Saturday night as the Bills try to contain Lamar while putting a spy in the middle to avoid a big run. Buffalo must win this matchup, and should, if they have any chance of winning this game. A takeaway or two through the air wouldn’t hurt either.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Offense
The Bills had no answers against the Colts run game Wildcard weekend giving up the most rushing yards they have since the Cardinals game on November 15, 2020. Most of Buffalo’s success came when the Colts most powerful back, Jonathan Taylor, was running the ball holding him to just 3.7 Y/A but they had issues with the quicker players. Nyheim Hines only rushed the ball 6 times but accounted for 75 yards on carries of 4, 1, 29, 3, 33, and 5. This stat line should worry a Bills’ fan base that is hoping the Bills can beat a team stacked with shifty players and advance to their first AFC Championship Game since 1993.
The Ravens offense is built off an option scheme the likes of which the NFL has never seen. This offense can execute everything and anything on the ground and it all starts with QB Lamar Jackson. On option plays the QB will generally key off one defender and read which “option” said player chooses to defend. An example, a designed handoff to the right side of the line except all linemen wash down to the left and leave the defensive end unblocked. When this occurs it forces the defensive end to choose between scraping down to the RB taking the supposed handoff or to maintain contain on the QB (See example here). Lamar Jackson is an expert at reading such defenders and even in the rare event where he keeps the ball when he should hand it off, he has the athleticism to beat the defender to the edge. When handing the ball off he primarily will be handing it to Gus Edwards or J.K. Dobbins. Gus the Bus is bigger than Melvin Gordon but plays with the speed of Alvin Kamara which has allowed him to maintain a Y/A of 5.0+ in each of his first 3 seasons. J.K. Dobbins is the smaller, faster, and quicker of the two which makes for a good change of pace from Edwards. This three headed monster has created for the Ravens one of the best rushing attacks in NFL history which continues to defy the mantra that the NFL is just a passing league.
The second part of the Ravens that make them so deadly running the football is their offensive line. At the two guard spots are Bradley Bozeman (LG) and Ben Powers (RG) who each possess incredible strength which allows them control defenders at the time of the snap. Neither is exceptionally gifted at pulling or blocking in the open field but their strength couples nicely with the athleticism of the Ravens backfield. Between them is Center Patrick Mekari who took the starting Job from Matt Skura midway through the season after snapping issues forced him to the bench. Mekari is a big bruiser like his guards Bozeman and Powers which gives the Ravens just south of half a ton of Man in the middle of their line. At RT is veteran D.J. Fluker who was chosen 11th overall by the San Diego Chargers in 2013. Fluker now on his 4th team in 8 seasons is a competent RT crushing the scales at nearly 350lb but is dealing with a nagging knee injury which is something to monitor. Last is LT Orlando Brown who was laughed at for only putting up 14 on the bench press at his combine three years ago and has quieted the doubters by being named to his 2nd straight Pro Bowl. In all this is an above average OL built perfectly for a Lamar Jackson lead offense.
Buffalo will need to slow down the Ravens run game if they have any chance of winning on Saturday and this may be an odd thing to read, but the Bills defense actually lends itself to do just that. There has been discussion all week on Reddit, Twitter, and everywhere else of who will play the spy for the Bills against the Ravens and while they assuredly will occasionally spy, with Edmunds, Milano, or Poyer, the Bills’ Palms Scheme is actually proficient at slowing down mobile QBs. In this scheme the Bills will have multiple defenders zoned in the middle of the field, effectively playing a coverage spy on Lamar while also holding an advantage on the outside via their tradeoff concepts. In the event Lamar does break outside the pocket the Bills defense allows the boundary guarding CB to step forward to Lamar while the safety over the top takes the receiver. This is how the Bills defense is built and while an incredibly difficult scheme to run it is one the Bills have mastered. Don’t take this description of the Bills’ defense to say they will nullify Lamar Jackson but realize that the Bills have the tools to somewhat contain him, that is assuming they play a perfect game.
EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Ravens’ Special Teams
Throughout 2020 the Bills’ average starting field position was their own 30.7-yard line (NFL-6). Against the Colts their average starting field position was their own 15.4-yard line. The Bills would obviously go on to win this game, but field position has proved to be an indicator of success in 2020 as each team finishing within the Top-8 made the playoffs. This leads to a defense of one of the Bills most polarizing players, Andre Roberts, who has been integral to the Bills’ success in this measure and the insinuation that he was a major contributing factor in the Bills’ field position issues Wildcard weekend is not backed up by any tangible evidence. In the first half of the Colts’ game the Bills’ average starting field position was the 7.8-yard line primarily because of an exceptional Colts’ ST unit and the bend, don’t break, style of the Bills’ defense. How did each of the Colts’ first 6 drives end? Punt downed at the Bills’ 3, Magical kickoff dies on the Bills’ 15, Punt fair catch at the Bills’ 11, Kickoff returned by Roberts’ to the 12 with a 6 yard penalty bringing it back to the Bills’ 6, Colt’s Turnover on Downs at the Bills’ 4, Colts kneel before halftime. For the Bills’ this game was an aberration, and one I have confidence they will clean up against the Ravens, mainly because I have confidence in Andre Roberts.
Outside of the return game the Special Teams group for Buffalo continues to be one of the best in the NFL. Corey Bojorquez rightfully received a vote to the All-Pro team, and it could be argued he deserved more. Bojo punted 4 times Wildcard Weekend averaging 47.0 Y/P with a Net Y/P of 43.5. These numbers would have been significantly higher had he not purposely drilled in I20 punt which only required a 29-yard kick. At kicker is another player who arguably deserved some All-Pro consideration, rookie Tyler Bass. This kid has been on complete fire the past 10 weeks going 42/43 on XPs and 18/19 on FGs with his only miss coming from 61 yards out. I was personally skeptical on Bass coming into the season, but my goodness, this kid is a stud. There is one more player on the Bills’ Special Teams that got an All-Pro vote, Tyler Matakevich. A guru at the position the man nicknamed “Dirty Red” is around the ball carrier on every kick and tossing people around on every return. Bills’ fans know more than most that Special Teams players can have a huge impact on a team and the Bills’ have a ton of great ones.
The Ravens also have one of the better Special Teams units in the NFL. For most of the season Devin Duvernay handled KR while James Proche took care of PR however, in recent weeks Duvernay has taken control of both. Averaging 11.5 Y/PR and 27.5 Y/KR, with a 93-yard return for a TD, Duvernay is a dynamic rookie with open field speed that few can match. Just like the Colts game this will likely effect the Bills’ short kick strategy meaning a lot of touchbacks when the Bills kick off. Punting for the Ravens is the 38-year old veteran Sam Koch who the Ravens have under contract until he is 40. Koch had his lowest Y/P (44.5) in a decade but finished 8th in the NFL with a Net Y/P of 42.8, a difference of just 1.7. Koch rarely allows players to return the ball and when they do, they are averaging just 4.8 Y/R. Last is the best to ever do it, Kicker Justin Tucker. Tucker has a 90.7 FG% in the regular season throughout his career with a career long of 61. As automatic as they come if you see Tucker on the field there is basically no tradition Bills’ fans can do that would make him miss.
EDGE: Bills 👏
Why We Will Lose
The Ravens have steadily improved the entire season and are peaking at the perfect time. Improving their odds of advancing is that the Ravens’ strengths matchup well against the Bills’ weaknesses. On defense the Ravens excel against the pass and have been able to put pressure on every QB they have played in 2020. That pressure should be extra concerning for a Bills’ team that has seen their star QB struggle at holding onto the football, now realize that the Ravens had a combined 25 forced fumbles in the regular season and start panicking. In reality the Ravens only weakness on defense is against the run which is something that they shouldn’t particularly care about when playing a Bills team who has struggled running the ball and should find a more difficult go of things after losing their RB2.
On offense the Ravens continue to be one of the best running teams in history. Whether it be Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, or Lamar Jackson doesn’t matter because whoever has the ball will be able to effectively move it on the ground. This means consistent yardage with the occasional big run sprinkled in. That continuous success ultimately will keep the ball out of the hands of Buffalo’s offense while putting up points for Baltimore which is a typical strategy against a Bills team that has struggled against the run in 2020. Making matters worse is the Bills’ can’t just bail out to stop the run because if they did attempt this Lamar Jackson, the 2019 MVP, has shown the ability to make big plays through the air and will do so against this Bills’ team. The Ravens offense is built to beat a team like Buffalo, as is their defense, which is a recipe for a Baltimore victory.
Why We Will Win
The 2019 Bills lost to the Ravens 24-17. The 2020 Bills are a significantly improved version of that team with an MVP caliber QB. The Bills offense had no answer for the Ravens pressure last season which is a primary reason they went out and got a receiver that could specifically help with handling that scheme. That receiver is your first team All-Pro WR, Stefon Diggs, who has dominated every single player that has tried to guard him this season. You factor him in with Buffalo’s other 3 options at the position and the Bills suddenly have the ability to put up points against a Ravens’ defense that is one of the best in the NFL.
On defense the Bills may not have had the same success in 2020 that they did in 2019 but they have continually improved all season long. This game comes down to the Bills’ ability to contain Lamar Jackson and a healthy Matt Milano makes that slightly easier. Dark horse candidate to have big game is A.J. Epenesa who the Bills coaching staff has surely coached up to not do to much and instead do his 1/11th. And that is just what every single Bills’ player must do, their 1/11th, do that and you won’t stop Lamar Jackson, but you can reduce the damage he inflicts. If Buffalo accomplishes that your Bills will be heading to their first AFC Championship game in nearly 30 years.
Prediction: Bills 27 – Ravens 24
This is going to be a close game whichever way you slice it. On paper the Ravens seem to have the matchups but in reality, the Bills seem to have the ability to win them. Because this will be so close this game likely comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes, inclusive of turnovers. With the way the Bills are playing right now you must trust Josh Allen more than Lamar Jackson to hold onto the ball. At the end of the night though this will be a battle of heavyweights with the last one standing being one game away from Super Bowl Sunday.
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Dynasty Deep Work

I recently read Cal Newport’s book Deep Work.
To summarize his work in two sentences is to do it a disservice, but I think the gist is this:
Deep work, or “the ability to focus without distraction on a cognitively demanding task” is a profoundly important skill, which enables much of today’s most valuable work. Yet, the constant blur of email, social media, and the internet inhibits our ability to go deep—indeed, many have lost the skill entirely.
Suffice it to say, I find this an apt description of who I am as a dynasty fantasy football player (not to mention that dynasty may be one such distraction from more important work in my life). I have aggregated Twitter lists of (fantasy) football accounts which I endlessly scroll through. I peruse this subreddit, the DLF forums, and dynasty discords, constantly skimming others’ insights.
Now, to be fair, I think this has made me pretty successful at dynasty.
I’m ahead of the curve on many sleepers. I rostered James Robinson, Myles Gaskin, Gabriel Davis, Darnell Mooney, Robert Tonyan, and Logan Thomas on two or more of my five dynasty teams this past year, and added all for free (or close to it).
Outside of drafting N’Keal Harry in two leagues in 2019, I’ve drafted fairly well.
That being said, doing so takes a lot of time, is unfulfilling, and adds little value.
Moreover, although finding a reason to be involved in football year-round is great, I find little value in staying engaged (at least in the shallow, surface-level way) from between when the regular season ends until about a week before the NFL draft.
So, I guess this is my way of announcing (to nobody in particular, at least nobody who should care), that I plan to take a break from dynasty reddit/TwitteSleeper, and that I’d encourage you all to do the same.
That being said, to atone for the fact that I’ve made you read a wall of text, written with a snobbish, somewhat self-important tone despite its relative unimportance, I’d like to consolidate some of the best quantitative and qualitative insights I have on fantasy football to keep you all from wasting as much shallow time on fantasy football as I have.
I also do this to hopefully spark some idea for a “deep” dynasty project (akin to Jordan McNamara’s Analytics of Dynasty or Peter Howard’s database) and possibly find collaborators. I’m thinking that perhaps a public database of ‘21 prospects which consolidates tweets/articles written about those prospects by notable analysts (film, analytics, or otherwise) could be helpful.
Here are helpful statistics for...
Though these are the “stickiest” statistics, they still only have a R^2 of around 40% (with some variance by position). Peter Howard talks about them all here (around minute 85).
This sounds trite, but it’s not. Good RBs are generally good as rookies (some possible indicators of “being good” are yards per team attempt (RBs with two top-12 season average around 1.4 YPTA in their rookie year, minute 89), rushing yards over expectation, or praise from film analysts like JMoyer and Matt Waldman). Moreover, most long-term stud TEs generally breakout in their first or second year.
Again, not the end-all, be-all, but this is why you pick up Robert Tonyan and Logan Thomas instead of Jace Sterberger, Jeremy Sprinkle, and Thaddeus Moss.
​
This year that could have netted you Josh Jacobs, Ronald Jones, Terry McLaurin, and Calvin Ridley at the beginning of the year, and Tee Higgins and Myles Gaskin during the middle of the season. (Who knows if all those will turn out to be good buys, but most of them seem to have seen their value rise significantly in dynasty after when they were identified as good buys.)
Of course, all of this is just an aid. None of these indicators are deterministic or have flawless records. But, the nice thing is, they can help you account for earlier misses. For instance, if you—like most of breakout age twitter—faded Terry McLaurin as a rookie, when he had an incredible PFF grade midseason and at the end of the rookie year, plus > 2.0 yards per route run, plus was valued higher in redraft than dynasty, those all should’ve told you to buy Terry McLaurin aggressively.
Here are a few narratives I FADE and BUY:
FADE coach-centric narratives *
* Unless with the current personnel (meaning offensive starters and OC), that coach as clearly demonstrated and articulated their preference (for instance, Carrol and Zimmer’s desire to establish the run), I find you often lose more value than you gain by making predictions and projections based on qualitative coaching tendencies.
BUY talent
(That being said) FADE unproductive rookies
BUY that the startup is the easiest place to accrue value (and trade for future rookie picks).
FADE “can’t stay on the field” narratives, namely someone being “injury prone” or having “character concerns.” * Here’s why (part 1) (part 2).
* Like always, there are a few exceptions. Soft-tissue injuries (particularly an achilles injury) can be significant. Talk of a player being deep in the drug-prevention program (particularly if they’re a highly-valued player) and an indefinite suspension is a real threat is worth paying attention to.
BUY far-out rookie picks.
BUY “base rates” narratives.
FADE narratives which use one metric / threshold to encourage not drafting a player (rookies, in particular).
BUY narratives which use multiple metrics / thresholds to characterize a rookie class as a whole. (Basically, what I’m saying is that context is important.)
FADE college awards as being anything more than an indicator that someone is a good college player. (Also FADE conference-driven takes.)
FADE consensus “buy lows / buy highs”
So, on a related note…
BUY “buy high / sell high" narratives
BUY PPR is the best scoring system.
Whew! That was a long post. Hopefully some of it was helpful. I’ll end by encouraging some great Twitter follows (though again, I’d encourage simply taking a break, like I’m about to do, from that entire world until about a week before the draft).
AdamHarstad
You’ll get smarter if you follow him, and be a better a dynasty manager. Incredibly kind, too, which is arguably more important. If you want to avoid falling victim to Berkson’s and other types of selection of bias (well, as much as you can), or simply marvel in awe at someone with an encyclopedic knowledge of PFR, he’s your guy.
JMoyerFB
He’s the (RB) film analyst I most trust. Underrated follow in this community, I think. (MattWaldman also does great work, but I can’t keep up with his endless stream of content. MarkSchofield is great for QBs.)
RayGQue
Great devy film analyst. As the rest of my post indicates, I obviously skew toward metrics/analytics. He’s a great counterbalance. (Though they all vary in how film-centric their analysis is, I’d put devydeets, angelo_fantasy, ProFootballPSI, and JordanReid in the same category. 7RoundsInApril is also a great follow for insight into draft prospects.)
Not for everybody, but absolutely worth a follow:
DevyEusuf
All-star Twitter user. Receipts for days, and he’s right more often than anyone else I know when it comes to evaluating draft prospects. His “fuck off” quote tweets are hilarious (or possibly humiliating / infuriating if you’re on the other side.) If you don’t want that energy, then don’t follow, but at least check out what he has to say.
Fantasy_Mansion
Matt Kelley draws the ire of many on this subreddit for how often he trumpets speed score and breakout age, but there’s a reason he does that: they’re good metrics. He’s built a fantasy football media empire, and playerprofiler is an incredible free tool (which he built).
A couple quick hitters (in list form):
evansilva and RyanMc23
If you’re not following Evan (if only for his weekly takeaways during the regular season) and Ryan (if only for his DLF ADP data), what are you doing? Fantasy giants.
MattHarmon_BYB
Reception perception is awesome.
sidelinehustle
Great at identifying some underrated / good route-runners.
GrahamBarfield
His yards created model is great.
SamWallace_FF
Great at spotting talent.
HaydenWinks
Great points over expected model.
LordReebs
SigmundBloom
MiKeMeUpP
Ihartitz
ChadParsonsNFL
dwainmcfarland
ClutchFantasy
JerrickBackous
DFBeanCounter
MetricScout
CPatrickNFL
PatThorman
DBro_FFB
ChrisAllenFFWX
ZWKfootball
32BeatWriters
JetPackGalieo
jlarkytweets
goldengate_ff
FairlyOdd_FF
FFNewsletter
FF_RTDB
DynastyJacobian
Justin_14P
Whew! That’s all for now, folks. Also, the formatting copied weirdly, so I'm sorry about that.
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Official r/NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

Welcome to the week 15 Official NFL Power Rankings! A circle of parity has finally been created in the unlikeliest of fashions, with late season pushes bringing some teams closer together than ever. Will any more bottom feeders continue to prove themselves with two weeks left? Can losing teams shake their bad juju to finish the season strong? Discuss! 29/32 Reporting
# Team Δ Record Comment
1. Chiefs -- 13-1 The Chiefs offensive line was going to be a weak spot in this game, and the Saints defensive line took advantage. An already so-so group had to deal with injuries and despite being pressured on over 40% of drop backs, Mahomes still made magic. The Chiefs were definitely given all they could handle though, as they didn't score on 7 possessions and credit is due to the Saints for a good game on defense. An off night from Brees and a solid performance from the Chiefs defense gave the Chiefs offense enough opportunities so they could pull ahead just enough for a win. Will the Chiefs style of letting the offense be the closer at the end of the game continue to succeed? It's hard to say. However, with the 1 seed basically locked up and Mahomes at QB, it's hard not to be optimistic about the Chiefs' chances to get back to the Super Bowl.
2. Bills +1 11-3 The Buffalo Football Bills have secured the AFC East title for the first time in 25 years. Not only that, but a Pittsburgh loss has thrust the Bills into the second seed. Josh Allen might have the hottest hand in football right now, coming out in a nationally televised game and lighting a defense up for the third consecutive week. With John Brown due back, this Bills offense is fully primed and ready to make a playoff push. Now, it’s off to New England, where Buffalo opened as six point favorites. Shortsman good, hoodie man bad. No matter how far the Patriots have fallen this year, a big win in Gillette would still feel great.
3. Packers -1 11-3 After the start to that game, it was almost disappointing that the Packers didn't score more than 24 points, but the defense stepped up and got the win. Saints and Rams both lost, so now the Pack can clinch the 1 seed if things go their way next week. Next week is the Titans, so a win certainly isn't guaranteed. Not looking forward to Derrick Henry stiff-arming are godawful run D but hey at least the Packer have Trubisky in the back pocket for Week 17.
4. Saints -- 10-4 A loss to this Chiefs team isn't unexpected; but the Saints will need to return to form to avoid a Steelers-esque collapse. If Anzalone recovers that fumble, who knows what the final result would have been.. The defensive unit got the Saints in a hole early but deserves praise for adjusting and holding Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce to their lowest yardage numbers since October, while also keeping Tyreek Hill contained as well.
5. Colts +2 10-4 Powerranking convention stipulates we keep our blurbs short and don't write in 1st person. Screw it. After a decade of doing this I have three left before I retire so I'm going to trade in my editorial chips for this one. This Colts team is one of my favorites ever. They're inspiring. I'm going to pull up this highlight as indicative of everything I'm talking about. The AFC is really good this year; the Colts needed this W against the Texans. Houston, driving, final seconds, 4th & 5 from about the 15. Does the pursuit slack when Coutee finds a hole, or even more when he makes a man miss at the 5? Hell no! Not only did Leonard recover perfectly to punch the ball out, I was all about Kenny Moore on this play. Falling on a fumble in the endzone is never as easy as it appears (see Saints ' attempt near the half of the Chiefs game). Moore, in an instant, dives over the ball to block Jordan Aikens from recovering. By doing so, he ensures blue jerseys are at the bottom of the pile and the Colts get out of there with a victory. What heart. What a team. I know it sounds trite but the journey has been worth it, even if the Colts don't win it all this year. Watching veterans like Papa Rios, Xavier Rhodes, and Justin Houston serve as auxiliary coaches to this young Colts team warms the soul. I can't say enough good things about this team. Merry Christmas to all.
6. Titans +2 10-4 The Titans were able to get to 10 wins for the first time since 2008 on the back of Ryan Tannehill's 5 TDs against the Lions on Sunday.
7. Browns +4 10-4 The door to the playoffs is no longer closed. With two games to go the Browns could very well win the division. The Browns will face the struggling Jets and then a final game against Pittsburgh. Will it all come down to week 17? The history of fans being a stressed out mess says yes.
8. Seahawks +1 10-4 The Seahawks scraped by with a win against the Football Team week 15, but oh lordy was it ugly. The decline in the offense continues in even more apparent fashion this week, as someone who simply cannot be the same MVP frontrunner from the beginning of the season completed 18 passes for 121 yards through the entire game. The offensive line, however, did not give up a single sack to the WFT D-Line, which is kinda cool. The defense has absolutely taken a major step forward as of late. DJ Reed played lights out on Sunday, nabbing 1 of 2 Haskins interceptions. He has certainly earned himself a role on this defense even once (if?) Quinton Dunbar returns from injury. Rookie Alton Robinson had a great game as well, getting to Haskins for a strip sack and making his presence felt throughout the game. The Seahawks offense will need to wake up this week as the Rams come to Seattle fresh off a shocking loss to the Jets. Aaron Donald is going to be hungry. Please I miss the DK bombs.
9. Ravens +1 9-5 Two straight games with 40+ points is looking great on this final playoff push, even if it's against awful defenses. The defense still needs to do more work, though. Congratulations to Matthew Judon for the Pro Bowl invite! Ringo Starr is smiling somewhere. It's also nice to know that Huntley's got wheels, cuz bruhhh.
10. Steelers -5 11-3 Hubris. Injuries. Predictable playcalling on offense. Bad throws, guys not catching the ball on the occasions they are on-target. The Bengals played well. The Steelers did not. This wasn't the Steelers playing down to their opponent. This is them simply playing down while the Bengals played with inspiration. It's especially embarrassing to lose after JuJu does a TikTok video on the Bengals logo, fumbles there, and Kevin Greene passes away. Such a bad look. It's time to get serious and RIP to Greene. Arrogance needs to give way to humility and hunger.
11. Buccaneers +1 9-5 After starting the game down 24-7, Tom Brady once again did his best William Tecumseh Sherman impersonation and destroyed Atlanta again. Devin White decided to play a (rare) good game, sacking Matt Ryan three times, while Mike Evans had another centennial game. For the first time in 13 years, playoffs appear close to certain for the Bucs. Perhaps, they'll find more success there than they did the Pro Bowl, where only one player from the Bucs was named (Jason Pierre-Paul).
12. Rams -6 9-5 There really wasn’t anything that went right for either team this game. For the Rams, a new low was reached in the Sean McVay era as they got outplayed and outcoached in all phases: the inconsistent offense again started too slow, the defense failed to make stops or create any sparks, and McVay made some questionable decisions down the stretch. All this cements the Rams as the most inconsistent team in the NFL, capable of making a Super Bowl run, or losing to an 0-13 team. For the Jets, well, you know.
13. Dolphins -- 9-5 What a week for the Dolphins! They run the Pats right out of the playoffs and the Jets drop from the top pick in the draft, while the Dolphins top draft pick moved up a bit. That said, while the offense performed very well in the 2nd half, running the ball in a way that the team hasn't in years, they need to figure out how to play an entire game again, because they're in playoff situation football from here on out, and the competition will get better every week.
14. Cardinals -- 8-6 Hurts and Murray both played well in an exciting game where the Cardinals came out on top to hold onto the final playoff spot, for now. However, the game wasn't without issues. The offense had two redzone turnovers and aside from getting an early safety the defense making Hurts looks like a superstar (which he could very well be) made the game a lot harder than it should have been. Another must win will be a Saturday matinee against the 49ers.
15. Bears +3 7-7 The Bears are coming back stronger than a 90s trend and have played themselves into a position to make the playoffs if they get a little help. Driving this resurgence is an offense that has scored at least 30 points in 3 straight games for the first time since 2013. The Bears recent W-L record hides a concerning trend by the defense, which has surrendered 27+ points in 3 of the last 4 games.
16. Washington FT -- 6-8 Washington's 4 game winning streak comes to an end but once again they find a way to stay in the game and have a chance to win in late. This team is proving they aren't an easy out for anyone. This loss ultimately doesn't change their situation much thanks to week 15 results in the division. Their best case scenario at the moment, beat Carolina next week and hope NY falls to Baltimore and they're in.
17. Raiders -2 7-7 The season is basically over for the Raiders now. The only good thing to have come from their loss against the Chargers is knowing that the best backup QB in the league is on the Raiders. On to the next game, and thankfully, soon enough, the next season.
18. Vikings -1 6-8 The Vikings were effectively knocked out of playoff contention after their injury-riddled defense comprised almost entirely of backups only forced one punt from the Mitch-Trubisky led offense. The silver lining for this Vikings' squad is how good their rookie class looks: Justin Jefferson made the pro bowl after breaking Randy Moss' record for most catches by a Vikings' rookie receiver and is currently second only to Davante Adams in WR grade, Cameron Dantlzer is PFF's highest-graded cornerback over the nine weeks since the Vikings' bye week, Jeff Gladney and Ezra Cleveland are two of the higher-rated rookies at their respective positions, and DJ Wonnum is third among rookie DEs in pressures.
19. Patriots -- 6-8 Well this is how it happens, worst record since drafting Brady - missing the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. Can't overstate how the shit Miami running game steamed us, while we failed to steam them at all! Congrats to punter Jake Bailey on being selected to the pro bowl. for sound analysis check here
20. 49ers -- 5-9 Once again, turnovers doomed the 49ers. Two fumbles in the first 6 minutes of the game put them down 14-0. Then after clawing themselves back into the game, turnovers doomed them down the stretch, with Mullens throwing a pair of interceptions to go along with his first half fumble. The Niners are out of the playoff hunt, but expect Kittle and possibly Jimmy G to make their returns before the end of the regular season.
21. Chargers +6 5-9 This was more interesting than it should have been. Herbert and Mariota turned this game into the Eugene Air Show, with both QBs trading scoring drives routinely throughout the game. Chargers special teams continued to struggle with two 4th quarter FGs missed, but the Chargers got it done in overtime. Justin Herbert now has the most 300+ passing games by a rookie in league history (7) and ties Baker Mayfield's rookie passing TD mark (27) with two games to go, the first of which will be the final home game this season against Denver.
22. Falcons +1 4-10 Some will claim a curse as the only answer as to why a three score lead in the second half means nothing anymore, but they might be underestimating coaching ineptitude. At least they gained as much ground in the draft as Fournette did on this first down. Remaining games in Arrowhead and Raymond James aren't instilling confidence anytime soon, not when a pandemic can't even protect Atlanta from bad man Brady.
23. Eagles +2 4-9-1 Even in a loss the jump from Carson to Hurts is looking more solid by the week. Hurts was 24-44 for 338 yards, 3 TD/ 0 INT, you'd have to go back to last year to find a game where Wentz had a better passer rating than Hurts on Sunday. Unfortunately with three of four secondary starters out, Murray had one of his most efficient games to date.
24. Giants -2 5-9 The Giants’ offense has reached levels of ineptitude that the defense cannot come close to overcoming. A hobbled DJ nor a healthy Colt are going to be enough to keep Big Blue competitive against Baltimore. Jason Garrett has been as advertised by Cowboys fans, and we’re paying the price for it.
25. Broncos -4 5-9 Losing a blowout on a Saturday in the middle of a day in front of an empty stadium during a pandemic in a game broadcast on NFL Network has to be to the most pathetic thing an NFL team can do, no?
26. Panthers -2 4-10 Another game, another chance to win or tie on a final drive, and another failure by Teddy Bridgewater. This season has started to become something like Groundhog Day, and it’s not getting better. Yesterday, our GM Marty Hurney was fired over “philosophical differences” on how to build a team. The next GM is most likely going to be in-house, either Pat Stewart (currently Director of Player Personnel) or Samir Suleiman (currently Director of Player Negotiations), and will have a huge decision to make regarding who to take with our first pick and what to make of Teddy “Deja Vu” Bridgewater.
27. Cowboys +2 5-9 Thirty points for the second week in a row, and a second win to go along with it. 24 points off of turnovers paint a more complete picture, as this team produced 150 fewer yards of offense than the 49ers, losing the TOP battle by ten minutes as well. Still, improvement exists, and somehow playoffs are not yet off the table.
28. Lions -2 5-9 Welp, The Detroit Lions have been eliminated after their loss to the Tennessee Titans Sunday. After two very competitive showings against the Bears and Packers, this week was lopsided. Matthew Stafford decided to play through his injury and played well. Unfortunately, his injury was the least of their problems. Defensively; missing many starters, Detroit was dominated everywhere giving up 46 points. The Lions offense did move the ball consistently, but they were unable to keep pace. A costly fumble by TJ Hockenson on a drive destined to cut the lead to 2 shifted the momentum big time. Detroit made some simple mistakes like missing extra points which didn't help either. Darrell Bevell has two opportunities left to continue to make a case for a job in Detroit or elsewhere. #Onepride (Credit DoseOfDion 2.0)
29. Texans -1 4-10 Losing on a red zone turnover to a division rival is bad enough. Doing it twice in three weeks to the same team doesn't numb the pain any further. Not with a blowout loss to the Bears sandwiched in between and the Dolphins reaping the reward of Houston's draft capital.
30. Bengals -- 3-10-1 After Joe Burrow got hurt things did not go well for a while, and it was hard to see...It's just nice to win one.
31. Jets +1 1-13 Sunday's win over the Rams may go down as one of the worst losses in franchise history.
32. Jaguars -1 1-13 Finally, the Jaguars manage to slip into first... pick in the draft! There isn't much else to say. The Jaguars are the worst team in football. This trend will continue for the remainder of the season. If anything, fans have the post-season fireworks to look forward to.
submitted by NFLPowerRankers to nfl [link] [comments]

Way-too-soon Ringer Predictions 2027: Who Says No?

What will the Ringer look like after the last pick swap from the James Harden trade? Some predictions below:
By the time the last pick swap from the James Harden trade happens in 2027, this is what the Ringer will look like:
After years of dodging the IRS, Ryen Russillo is podcasting from extradition-free, tax-free Vanuatu
After a public falling-out with Chris Ryan at the Sundance premier of Rango 2, Sean Fennessey leaves The Ringer for substack
Binge Mode is six hundred episodes into Dragonball Z
After losing millions in a Nigerian Prince scam fronted by Malcolm Gladwell, Bill is forced to write a NFL book that is mainly listicles of contradictory gambling advice. The book is an immediate New York Times best seller
Shea Serrano receives the Presidential Medal of Honor for his role in making San Antonio into America's literary hub. Bill coincidentally ranks the Medal of Honor outside his Top 11 Awards list
Recent college grad Zoe Simmons takes Liz Kelly's job, prompting a thinly-veiled Ringer Union tweet about nepotism. The tweet gets six likes
Bill and Chris Ryan kick off 2027 with the fourth Re-Heat podcast even though The Rewatchables still hasn't done Goodfellas
The continued demolition of sports media outlets forces The Press Box to have Jackie MacMullen talking about the reporters she and Bob Ryan hung out with at that one steakhouse in Boston every week
With Red Sox, Patriots, and Celtics rebuilding, Bill gets really into the New England Revolution of the MLS and the Boston Cannons of the MLL
David Chang announces opening of Las Vegas location of his sports basports book concept Any Given Wingsday. The weekly Open Mic Night is a loss leader for the restaurant
Kevin O'Connor leaves The Ringer to become the GM of the NBA G League's Maine RedClaws. His first acquisition is Tyrese Halliburton, who hasn't been mentioned any Ringer podcast since February 2020.
Chris Ryan, Mallory, and Bill team up for anthology podcast called Only Children Exist
Nephew Kyle is widely considered to be at the forefront of the podcast editing avante garde, drawing frequent comparisons to Orson Welles and Donald Fagen
Joe House gets two more shows based on Bill's secondary interest: House of (Sports) Cards with occasional co-host Ben Simmons and L.A. Strolling, in which House powerwalks around the City of Angels
submitted by LittleStevie505 to billsimmons [link] [comments]

[Wolfe] Would Deshaun Watson's availability change Dolphins' plan to build around Tua Tagovailoa?

DAVIE, Fla. -- Tua Tagovailoa should be considered the favorite to be the Miami Dolphins' starting quarterback this coming season. The Dolphins are serious about building around their 2020 first-round pick, but there's one player who could be a plan-changer: Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Watson, 25, is the story of the NFL offseason -- an unhappy but elite franchise quarterback who has asked for a trade. Texans general manager Nick Caserio is telling teams they have "zero interest" in trading their quarterback.
If things were to change, Miami is Watson's preferred destination, sources told ESPN, thanks in part to the team culture coach Brian Flores is building, the Dolphins' ascending roster and the fact there's no state tax in Florida. Also, Miami has premium assets, including the No. 3 and No. 18 picks in the 2021 NFL draft to make a deal.
Like it or not Tagovailoa fans, the Watson trade talk isn't going away any time soon. There's no guarantee Miami will go all-in on Watson even if he is available, but it would be naïve to believe the Dolphins would not consider it; top-5 QBs rarely become available.
When asked about the Watson rumors, Tagovailoa said on ESPN's Get Up! show: "I can only control what I can control. I am the quarterback for the Miami Dolphins."
There's a line of demarcation for Dolphins fans here, with some demanding Miami embrace Tagovailoa no matter what and others urging consideration of a Watson pursuit.
Let's dig right in: Would Watson impact the Dolphins' plan to build around Tagovailoa?

Potential cost and timing

Trading a player such as Watson is practically unheard of, but perhaps the Dallas Cowboys trading running back Herschel Walker to the Minnesota Vikings in 1989, a deal that included three first-rounders, three second-rounders and players is the best example. While at the Senior Bowl, a league source told ESPN he would "eat his hat" if Caserio traded Watson given the QB's talent as well as his familiarity with the GM's resolve.
If the Texans give in and make Watson available, expect the cost to be historic. Three first-round picks and a young starting player would be a respectable opening offer, but it shouldn't surprise if the ultimate price is four first-rounders.
A hypothetical Dolphins offer for Watson could be the No. 3 pick, No. 18 pick, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 second-round pick and Tagovailoa. The Texans could also push for the Dolphins to include All-Pro cornerback Xavien Howard, a Houston native who finished third in NFL Defensive Player of the Year voting and wants a contract adjustment. If Howard was included, perhaps Miami could include the No. 35 pick instead of the No. 18.
Despite Watson's no-trade clause, the Texans don't have to trade him, so that gives the team leverage in holding out for a Godfather offer.
Timing, however, is key if Miami gets involved. March 17 is the first deadline to monitor as teams will want to solidify their QB situation entering 2021 free agency, but most of the Dolphins' premium assets are in the 2021 draft, while other likely suitors such as the New York Jets have two first-round picks in 2022. April 29 might be a final deadline to keep Miami in the mix on a potential Watson destination.

Case for building around Tagovailoa

This trend of casting final judgments on quarterbacks after one season -- or in Tagovailoa's case, nine starts -- is disappointing at best and foolish at worst. As veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick told ESPN last week, the Dolphins drafted Tagovailoa in the top 5 last season because he has a rare skill set and Miami believed he would be the QB to lead it to a championship.
Significant offseason decisions behind the scenes have already been made with Tagovailoa in mind, multiple people within the Dolphins' organization told ESPN. Decisions we're aware of include Charlie Frye's hiring as Dolphins quarterbacks coach and the co-offensive coordinator promotion of George Godsey and Eric Studesville.
The Dolphins have committed to Tagovailoa's long-term development. Miami's staff believes many of Tagovailoa's rookie struggles are fixable with a full offseason with more reps, and the Dolphins are aiming to get explosive playmakers around him and banking on good chemistry with Godsey and Studesville.
It's also tantalizing to picture the Dolphins building around Tagovailoa by drafting Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith and running back Najee Harris, using free agency to supplement the offense by adding players such as Green Bay Packers All-Pro center Corey Linsley and Indianapolis Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton, and continuing their strong defensive success led by Howard.
Going all-in on Watson would start the clock on the Dolphins' championship window, but would leave them with roster holes combined with the lack of elite draft capital to fix them. It would be a similar roster setup Watson had in his early Houston days when he topped out in the divisional playoffs. And, the decision to add Watson would be a big detour from the Dolphins' largely successful rebuild plan.

Case for going after Watson

Watson, if acquired, would immediately become the Dolphins' best quarterback since Dan Marino. ESPN NFL Nation picked 128 foundational players across all 32 teams last summer, and Watson went No. 4 behind Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes, Seattle's Russell Wilson and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson. That would make Watson the NFL's fourth most valuable player, and one could make an argument for higher.
Watson, drafted by Houston at No. 12 overall in 2017, is a three-time Pro Bowler who ranks in the top four all-time in completion percentage (67.8%, first), passer rating (104.5, second) and yards per attempt (8.3, fourth). Watson led the NFL in passing (4,823 yards) and yards per completion (12.6) in 2020.
Yes, there are plenty of reason to believe Tagovailoa will inch his way toward becoming an elite QB. But this is a quarterback league, and Watson has already established himself as a playmaking top-5 QB. It's more comfortable to bet on the sure option rather than the potential.
If the Dolphins (10-6) maintain their top-5 defensive play from the 2020 season and add Watson, they would likely be vaulted to the top of the AFC. Miami would still fall behind Kansas City and probably Buffalo, but with Watson they would have a better chance to dethrone those two. Miami would then compare well on paper to Baltimore, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
And, Miami landing Watson would block the rival Jets from getting him, clearing an easier path to the AFC East crown.
If a team figures out the QB position along with having an ascending roster, the cost to get there is rarely remembered as being too high.

Final thoughts

The Texans and Watson are at a standoff that could last months, all while the Dolphins are planning to build around Tagovailoa as of now. Those are the two facts we know.
Flirting with Watson would be more about the rarity of the situation rather than an indictment on Tagovailoa.
Nine starts coming off a serious hip injury is way too early to give up on Tagovailoa. Though Watson is tantalizing and would be an immediate upgrade, Miami doesn't need him as much as other QB-hungry teams.
If the Dolphins believe Tagovailoa can lead them to a championship with more development and a better roster -- and all indications are they do -- they should keep their draft assets and stay the course.
Miami is in a win-win situation regardless of what happens next.
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https://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/32163/would-deshaun-watsons-availability-change-dolphins-plan-to-build-around-tua-tagovailoa
submitted by KiNG5yK to miamidolphins [link] [comments]

Here's an in-depth breakdown of Super Bowl LV:

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We have made it! All 256 regular season and – since this year – twelve playoff games are in the books and there is just one matchup left to decide who will be crowned NFL champions. There are so many storylines leading up to the big game – the GOAT Tom Brady versus the kid Patrick Mahomes, two of the all-time great tight-ends on either side of the ball wearing number 87, the Buccaneers becoming the first ever team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, Andy Reid after all this time of coming up short, potentially winning back-to-back titles, while Bruce Arians is looking to finally get his first ring as a head coach and potentially becoming the oldest one to earn one in history, and many others.
As I do every year, I wanted to give a detailed look ahead to the big game, where I break down who these teams are, kind of how they got here and how they match up against each other. To do so I put together analysis of each offense and defense, plus where each could have the advantage, then I take a look back at when these two teams first met back in week 12, explain what they have and/or should have learned from it, give you an X-factor on either side of the ball for both and finally hand out my score prediction, while explaining what I believe will happen.
Let’s dive into it!
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Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense:

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The Tampa Bay offense has been transitioning throughout the season. Early on it was Bruce Arians’ system with a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel, trying to establish a gap-scheme power run game and taking play-action shots off it from under center. And then a second offense was kind of implemented, which was more suited to what Tom Brady was used to in New England, where they spread the field and attack defenses with the quick game. However, it really was two separate playbooks almost, that they worked in. I think we have seen a little more of a symbiotic relationship, which I believe Byron Leftwich has had a big role in putting together. They motion their backs in and out or use their receivers as pre-snap coverage indicators at a much higher rate, letting Brady be surgical in the quick passing game, but still attacking vertically and using Gronk and the tight-ends as that extra in-line blocker to get enough time, because Brady still more than enough juice in his arm to push the ball down the field. Since week ten, Cameron Brate has also played about 41 percent of the snaps and I believe he gives them more versatility in what they can be from two tight-end personnel, since he can basically be a big slot for them. Their receiving corp as a whole offers a lot of versatility, whether it’s Mike Evans moving more into the slot this season, Antonio Brown being able to line up at any of the receiver spots or specialists like Scotty Miller to attack down the field.
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It’s a well-established narrative that if you can get to Tom Brady early, he becomes a much less effective passer and if you look at the five games, that they have come up short in 2020 (Saints twice, Bears, Rams and Chiefs), they have lost the battle up front offensively. Since their week 13 bye, following their last loss to Kansas City (including the playoffs), they have gone undefeated whilst averaging 34.3 points per game, with at least 30 in all three postseason battles. Looking at those games in particular, the defense was dominant at New Orleans and set up scoring opportunities directly, but against Washington and Green Bay, they completed a combined 11 passes of 20+ yards. So it is still very much about the big plays through the air (finished top three in 20+ and 40+ yard passes), but the efficiency of this offense has really gone up to a different level. At Detroit they were so dominant that Brady sat out the entire second half, then they scored on all but one of their possessions against Atlanta and now over this three-game road playoff run, they have had only three combined three-and-outs and turnovers in each of them. A big key to that has been the Bucs offensive line keeping Brady clean, as he has gotten sacked only 11 times over their active seven-game win streak and just once in all but two of those contests. To go with having better solutions to beat the blitz in their system.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/5o8inlufbif61/player
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Unlike a lot of modern NFL offenses, that have incorporated more RPO elements and try to create numbers advantages in the run game with spread sets, Bruce Arians still brings that old-school flair with multiple tight-end sets and the power run game. There’s not a lot of wide zone blocking, but rather they create vertical movement at the point of attack with a heavy dose of duo, get those big offensive linemen on the move on toss plays and then I love watching those receivers get involved as blockers in the box – especially Chris Godwin, who they seriously have leading up in the hole or trapping three-techniques. When they run play-action off those looks, they use a lot of seven- and eight-man protections and try to hit defenses over the top, whether it’s deep crossers and posts or straight go routes down the sideline. As much success as they have with that recipe, when you look at the analytics, their tendency to run the ball on early downs shows there’s plenty of improvement in terms of efficiency, which is something I want to see them do in this game, to not get behind the chains and allow the Chiefs defense to be as creative on third down. When they go into shotgun and spread the field more, they look for ways to attack the middle of the field with their inside receivers primarily and when they see one-on-one on the outside with Mike Evans or Antonio Brown, they will take their shots. Double-moves are a large ingredient to what they do, especially out-and-up routes.
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For the Chiefs defense, they looked like they had carried over that momentum from last year’s Super Bowl run into 2020, not giving up more than 20 points in any of their first four games. In week five, the Raiders out of nowhere exploded for 40 points and handed them their only loss outside of week 17, when they rested several starters, before having three more great showings at Buffalo, Denver and then hosting the Jets. But since then, they have allowed at least 24 points in six of their final eight games. Part of that negative turnaround was the injuries they have had in the secondary and the lack of takeaways (one per game). The biggest piece however has been their inability to keep teams out of the end-zone when they got close. Looking at the whole regular season, no other team has allowed their opponents to create a higher rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (74.1%). That’s why so many of their games stayed close deep into the fourth quarter, which I’ll get to more in a little bit. When you look into play-calling, you can see that they played a lot more zone-coverage and rushed only four or five, because they simply didn’t have the guys their could trust to cover in man. Outside of one game, where they felt like they had a great feel for the opposing route-patterns, which I’ll get to soon.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/kab5kwvkbif61/player
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Yet, once again, that unit has stepped up in the postseason and the two things that stand out to me are defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant game-planning and their ability to stop one-dimensional offenses. When I look at what they did against the Browns, if you take away one 23-yard burst from Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s elite running back duo was held to 78 yards on 18 carries, as Spagnuolo gave their opponents a lot of looks that they didn’t want to run into and then had a safety drop out of the box late. Then in the AFC title game, to take away Buffalo’s dynamic passing offense (which ranked top three in all major categories), they played a lot of cover-two and two-man, where their DBs pressed the hell out of the Bills receivers and then they played a lot of different versions of those two-high shells, like invert cover-two or bringing Tyrann Mathieu down as the MIKE in Tampa-two basically, which forced Josh Allen to hold onto the ball. What I can promise you is that they aren’t afraid of bringing heavy pressure and then having their coverage defenders well-schooled in the concepts they should focus on taking away primarily while the Honeybadger is often allowed to move pretty freely as the robber. Frank Clark hasn’t quite lived up to his contract, but he has had big moments in the playoffs these last two years, Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive interior D-linemen in the game, who they can move all over the line, and they have several big bodies they can rotate through to stay fresh and eat double-teams.
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Chiefs offense vs. Bucs defense:

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As much as we all love the Kansas City offense and we see them as this unit that blows us away with flashy play-designs and throws over the top, they have really been alternating their approach over the course of the season as well. When you go all the way back to their season-opener against the Texans, you see that they used more of a West Coast and RPO-oriented attack to punish a defense that played a lot of soft zones and invited them to throw the ball short. However, two weeks later at Baltimore, they were destroying the Ravens’ single-high safety and man-coverage principles by letting their speedy receivers streak down the field and call double-moves at 15+ yards of depth. Then three weeks after that, when they found themselves in a rainy setting at Buffalo against a soft interior run defense, they pounded the ball 46 times for almost 250 yards on the ground. So they have shown the ability to adapt to their opponents. However, with several injuries on the offensive line – most notably a turnstile at left guard and those two tackles, which will now both be out for the Super Bowl – and opposing defenses taking the approach of using a lot more split-safety looks and trying to take away the big play, they have turned back into being more methodical in their plan and putting together long drives. In the AFC Championship game in particular, with Patrick Mahomes coming off a turf toe injury, their gameplan and drive charts look almost like what they used to with Alex Smith, in terms of the West Coast designs and those glance or slant routes on the backside of RPO concepts.
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When you look at this KC offense, they have had large stretches of getting static in games and as great as they are at moving the ball between the 20s, they are only 14th league-wide in red-zone touchdown percentage (61%). Some people may not realize this, but since their week eight blowout win over the Jets, they had not won a game by more than six points until the AFC title game. That is due to a combination of tendency to start slow, their poor red-zone efficiency and the inability to run the ball consistently with all the movement they have had on the O-line, having rushed for 135+ yards just three times all season. With that being said, Darrell Williams has been a big factor as a power runner these playoff and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be back to full health. In addition to that, they find other ways to put the ball in the hands of their skill-players quickly, using the speed of their receiving crew on bubbles and speed sweeps, to go along with well-designed longer-developing screens, such as the double swing-fake and then middle screen to Travis Kelce. They also use their star tight-end quite a bit on those power shovels in short-yardage situations and I believe their most effective run play is the speed option, because of the way Mahomes can manipulate that end-man at the line.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/eopgbempbif61/player
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While I have seen them run anything from 23 personnel to going empty with Kelce detached from the line (so basically a five-wide situation), there are a few things the Chiefs love to run. Their go-to formation is a three-by-one set with Kelce as the single receiver, mostly flexed out wide, but also in-line. In 2019 they ran three verticals from that trips side and then had Kelce on a shallow crosser over and over again. This year they still run it quite a bit, but they let the tight-end run more corner or curl routes, to allow inside receivers from the other side attack the middle of the field and isolate their backs against the linebackers, in addition to running power that way. And then they motion someone like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman across, which for the most part gets opposing defense to move into two-high coverages and play off. So if KC runs either one up the seams, there’s usually a ton of space underneath. The two things that take this offense to the next level however, are trick plays and off-script production. What makes Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy great is not only their ability to exploit defensive schemes, but they are so creative and don’t shy away from throwing reverse passes, underhand shovels to their fullback or digging up tape from the 1948 Rose Bowl. And then there’s all the thing Mahomes can do off script. That guy is so slippery to extend plays while continuing to look downfield and his pass-catchers are so adept at adjusting on the fly and finding the open areas, especially that sixth sense-like connection he has with Kelce.
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I have been higher on the Bucs defense for pretty much the entire year, which was really up and down for them as a unit. They have had moments of dominance, like keeping three straight opponents to under 50 rushing yards each or holding Green Bay’s number-one ranked offense to just 10 points in their regular season meeting, but they also gave up a combined 72 points in their first two meetings with the Saints and got lit up for over 450 yards through the air when hosting these same Chiefs back in week 12 (I’ll analyze that matchup in detail in our next segment). During this playoff run however, they have really stepped up in big moments to get them to this point. Whether it’s forcing four turnovers at New Orleans or sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and making a historically great red-zone offense settle for a couple of chip-shot field goals at Green Bay. When you look at their duo of edge rushers, Shaq Barrett is tied for the lead-league in QB hurries (24) and only three players in the NFL (all DBs) have forced more turnovers than Jason Pierre-Paul (six). Then they have the most dynamic linebacker tandem in all of football, which are heavily involved in their pressure packages and make it nearly impossible to get outside the tackle box in the run game, and now with Vita Vea back in the lineup, they have a wall on the inside that nobody can run on consistently. That’s how they finished the regular season as the clear number one run defense in the league. The secondary has been the problem child at times, especially when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has put them in pure man-coverage, but by moving their safeties around more to bracket and help in certain areas of the field, they have really improved in that department.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/meu60dlrbif61/player
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Bowles is an aggressive play-caller by nature and they have created a lot of problems for opposing offenses by bringing one more than you can block (blitzed on 39% of plays). It has bitten them in their behind at times as well, but from what I have seen on tape, they have been more strategic in how they use it. Especially on third downs, I love how they have used their safeties as moving pieces, having them key on certain areas of the field or defending the sticks. In the NFC Championship game for example, one of the biggest plays of the afternoon was that Aaron Jones fumble at the start of the second half, when the Packers thought they had defeated the man-coverage with a shallow crosser to Jones whilst picking the underneath coverage, but Jordan Whitehead raced up from the other side of the field and jarred the ball loose just as the RB tried to turn upfield and convert on third down. That willingness to drive on routes is also apparent when they run quarters coverage and you see Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. break on the ball, looking to take somebody’s head off, while they are also heavily involved in their blitz packages. That combined with those guys coming off the edges, Ndamokung as a bully on the inside and a pretty unknown contributor in William Gholston has them ranking in the top five in sacks, pressure percentage, turnovers and tackles for loss.
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Examining the first matchup:

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Like I already mentioned, these two teams met back in week 12. The Chiefs jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first quarter, with Tyreek Hill racking up over 200 receiving yards over those 15 minutes already and the Bucs offense having just one combined first down over the first four possessions. Kansas City was in the red-zone once more mid-way through the second quarter, but a Shaquille Barrett strip-sack gave Brady & company the ball with some life and they were able to go on the board. That really got things to click and they fought their way back to being down only three, despite a couple of interceptions for Tampa Bay’s QB killing drives, because after scoring a touchdown on their initial try for the Chiefs, the Bucs defense really stepped up and held their opponents scoreless the rest of the way. However, Mahomes and Hill were able to run down the final four minutes and close the game, not giving Brady’s troops another chance, as they were coming off consecutive TD drives at the end, to secure a 27-24 victory.
While the Chiefs certainly took their foot off the gas pedal and tried to run the ball more, which KC outside of what Mahomes did, rushed for only 59 yards on 16 carries, I really thought this was a breaking point for Tampa Bay as a team. The offense started finding a groove and the only two drives that didn’t result in points from that final first half possession on, ended in picks. The defense on the other hand adjusted what they were doing in coverage and held that explosive KC attack to just ten points through the final three quarters. So while I think the result may be a little deceiving and the Chiefs could have easily won by double-digits, I look back at this as more of a launching pad for a team that has been the best in the NFC from that point on and now represents that conference in the big game, with a chance to learn from their early mistakes. Here are a few things that really stood out to me when they first met:
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When you look back at the ridiculous first quarter Tyreek Hill had at Tampa Bay, what really stands out is how much he was left one-on-one in coverage, often times with Carlton Davis, who has had a good season in general, but is a bigger corner who ran in the low 4.5s at the combine – no way can he keep up consistently against the fastest man in football. Davis did follow Tyreek for the most part, in particular when he was the single receiver or the #3 in that trips set with Travis Kelce soloed up on the opposite side. And the Chiefs did a great job of creating those one-on-ones with motions, where they moved Kelce in line or forced Davis to trail Hill, when he came across the formation from that trips alignment. Tyreek’s two long touchdown came on a subtle double-move after they motioned Kelce in and then on a streak across the field as the #3 from trips. That opened up the middle of the field later on for Kelce on hook and dig routes. Something else Kansas City did in the first half particularly was using more 12 and even 13 personnel than I had seen from them all season long. They still couldn’t run the ball a lick out of those sets, but they were effective in the passing game when used, especially chipping both those guys off the edges for Tampa, with one of the TEs and the running back.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/8b7dchqzbif61/player
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Tampa Bay called a lot of passing concepts with five-man protections early versus Kansas City bringing an array of blitzes (18 on 42 drop-backs). Especially on third downs, they were able to create at least one free rusher and then they had one or two defenders bailing out to take away the middle of the field. However, the Bucs made some very effective adjustments in the second half with hot-route to defeat those blitzes and putting that “bail defender” I will call it here in a bind, with a seam and spot route underneath for example. Of course the Chiefs still got two interceptions off Brady, that stopped promising drives, but when you look at what went wrong on those plays, first Ronald Jones overset to the outside trying to pick up Tyrann Mathieu off the edge, which led to an underthrown deep ball by Brady that was brought in by Bashaun Breeland along the sideline, as Scotty Miller got pushed out wide on his release, and then Mathieu got an INT of his own, as Mike Evans didn’t recognize the pressure and the ball went off the helmet of a blitzing Daniel Sorensen. In general, they were able to get the ball out quickly – especially to their tight-ends – to take advantage of limited resources in coverage and on the final two drives, when KC brought heat almost every single snap, they were punished for it.
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What each team can take away:

A couple of adjustments that I already saw in the first meeting or that I would like to see for each team would be:
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For the Bucs, the one thing I want to see most is using more dummy counts to show pressure pre-snap and give Brady a clear picture. Whether they try to block it up with the tight-ends and backs in protection or alert the hot read, the more information they can get from a Spagnuolo defense that prides itself on disguising pressures and coverages, they more adept they will be at defeating those. Once they do that, this could turn into a chess match, where the Chiefs show something different intentionally to make Brady kill the original play and then have to pull the ball down anyway, as the picture changes once the snap is off. And something else they should take advantage of is isolating what is a below-average group of linebackers in the passing game. Their RB core isn’t overly impressive in terms of their receiving abilities, especially when you look at the amount of drops we have seen from Leonard Fournette, but maybe they dig LeSean McCoy out more for this matchup and see if he can win on option routes and Tampa actually put AB in the backfield a couple of times in the backfield in their prior meeting, only they ran him downfield on wheel routes.
Defensively I already saw some stuff that I really through quarters two to four, in terms of using their safety tandem to bracket Hill and Kelce on a lot of snaps and on key downs in particular, forcing the ancillary pieces of that offense to beat them. I will mention one of my X-factors and his role in how that “gamble” could end up in the next segment, but those two guys accounted for 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s total passing yardage. So it’s certainly a chance worth taking and if you go with a game-plan, where your two stand-up guys on the second level are more involved in covering space underneath, as Tyreek may be utilized as more of a decoy that runs off the deep coverage, you can eliminate a lot of yardage after the catch, since teams that rush four and play coverage have been the ones giving the Chiefs some issues at times. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want the Bucs to not use their linebackers as blitzing threats. They should try to cover up the open gaps with those guys and create one-on-ones across the board, to enable their edge rushers to dominate against KC’s backup tackles. And something the Browns against them a few times, which I really liked, was rushing four or five, but not giving up assets in coverage, as they had somebody drop out to replace those blitzers and still create a free rusher.
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On the Chiefs’ side, I really liked the plan of chipping those two guys off the edges, as I already discussed, with an extra tight-end on the field, and while they are a spread-oriented offense, they had a lot of success when they used 12 personnel and threw the ball out of those looks. Because you can’t cover the whole field and have to take away what Kansas City sends vertically, those TEs and backs are often times all by themselves as they release into the flats. If that happens, like it did in their prior meeting, Mahomes has to take the free yardage and open up the deeper areas of the field again, as the Bucs have to re-adjust. The other thing I can tell you for sure is that the Bucs are obviously terrified of Tyreek burning them deep again and I’m sure there won’t be many chances to just attack their corners in man-coverage for big plays. So if they give Hill a lot soft cushions, they have to repeat what did to the Bills’ Tre’Davious White in terms of getting him the ball quickly on smoke routes and forcing those guys to tackle their electric receiver. While vertical prowess has to be used as a decoy, in terms of putting him in the slot of those three-by-one sets and having him run up the seam, while you attack underneath that. If you get Mecole Hardman one-on-one with their third-best CB on a post-corner route, while the flanker runs a hitch or square-in to bind the guy on the outside, that could be free money.
When I switch to defense, they had a ton of success bringing the blitz and not allowing Brady to step into throws. I would certainly say they were happy with that game-plan and they have reason to feel confident in the guys they have on the back-end, with the way they have showed out so far in the postseason. However, I have now talked about this at length and the Bucs have watched that tape over and over again. There is no way, those guys will be as ill-prepared to counter those pressure packages as they were back in November. Hell, Brady was dicing them up in the fourth quarter and I just detailed how those two picks came about. So Steve Spagnuolo can still bring the heat in certain situations and test Tampa Bay in their ability to pick up the blitz, but he has to be more strategic in how he uses it. The second thing to consider here is how you mask those linebackers, when you decide to utilize them more in coverage. Those players can be very effective as downhill thumpers in the run game, taking on pulling guards and filling holes, but they aren’t great in space. The Raiders in their two matchups against Kansas City had a lot of success attacking that area of the field with crossing routes. Chris Godwin and Gronk would be guys for that task, so maybe if you have them to one side, the opposite linebacker is the one you blitz and you bring down Sorensen or Mathieu to replace him in that hook-area, while looking to pick up anybody working across the field.
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X-factors:

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Buccaneers – Aaron Stinnie & Jamel Dean

I’m not going to give you a name like Scotty Miller here, because at this point, he is more likely to catch at least one deep ball than not. Ronald Jones’ health will be key as well, to give the Bucs that physical one-two punch out of the backfield. However, I’m going with their starting right guard Aaron Stinnie, who just got his first two starts of the year during these playoffs. The Bucs O-line has been dominant over the course of this seven-game win streak, like I already mentioned, holding opponents to just 11 sacks combined in those games and an average of 115 rushing yards during these playoffs, despite some tough competition. Alex Cappa was one of the road-graders on the interior for Tampa and only missed three total snaps throughout the regular season, before fracturing his ankle mid-way through their Wildcard game at Washington. Stinnie has since stepped since then and played pretty well, but he was also responsible for the only sack on Brady in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, when Kenny Clark went right through him on a bull rush. Well, the challenge will not get any easier, as I’d expect the Chiefs to line up Chris Jones in the B-gap as much as possible and try to exploit that matchup, on passing downs in particular. That’s why it will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the chains, unlike they did in the first matchup, and slow the rush down a little bit. Good thing Stinnie is lined up in-between arguably the top rookie right tackle of 2020 in rookie Tristan Wirfs and one of the better centers in Ryan Jensen, who will be looking to land a rib-shot on the guy over Stinnie, on the snaps that he is uncovered for.
As for the Bucs defense, that whole group of corners will have to step up in a major way, as they hope to slow down this explosive KC passing attack. Obviously, Carlton Davis’ name will come up a whole lot early on during the broadcast, as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz show what Tyreek Hill did to him early on in that week 12 meeting, and I could see Hill be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot a whole lot as well, but since I expect the safety to that side to keep his eyes constantly on him, when he lines up inside and makes it easier to bracket to some degree. Instead, I’m looking at Jamel Dean, who primarily is Tampa Bay’s field-side corner, unless they have Davis travelling with the opposing team’s number one receiver in certain matchups, which I wouldn’t expect, as the Bucs coaches go back to the tape of that first matchup. If Todd Bowles is smart – and from what I’ve seen from his as a coach, as much as aggressiveness may have hurt him at times, he is – he will build on what they did in the second half of that last game, when he used his two safeties to bracket Hill and Kelce almost every snap and forced the rest of that receiving corp to beat them. That puts the spotlight on guys like Sammy Watkins if they line him up more at Z, Demarcus Robinson and others, as those guys will pretty much be one-on-one with Dean. While the coverage numbers would indicate otherwise – in part because he draws the easiest assignments – to me he is the weakest link of this secondary and has been highly vulnerable to double-moves. The Chiefs might be burn him once more on Sunday.
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Chiefs – Andrew Wylie & Juan Thornhill

I thought about going Sammy Watkins here for the Chiefs offense, because he hasn’t suited up for them since week 16 and he hasn’t caught at least five passes in a game since week three, but averaged almost 100 receiving yards during last year’s playoff run. And you should also get accustomed with who wears number 48 for them, because Nick Keizer may have only caught six passes through the regular season, but he has become KC’s TE2 on the depth chart, playing just over a quarter of the snaps, and he could have a key role as an extra protector or chipping those edge rushers. Instead, I’m going with KC’s new starter at right tackle, who was slotted in at RG for all but one game so far. With blindside protector Eric Fisher unfortunately tearing his Achilles late in the AFC title game, Mike Remmers – who originally replaced Mitchell Schwartz on the right end of the line – is now switching sides and Andrew Wylie is sliding one spot outside. And he will face a tough task, after only having started one game on the edge against the Saints and now getting a heavy load of Shaq Barrett, who primarily rushed off that side. Let’s see if Wylie has the quickness in his kick-slide to counter Barrett’s speed and if the latter can get him on a dip-maneuver, like he beat Eric Fisher for a strip-sack on when these two teams last met. Steven Wisniewski will step in at Wylie’s original spot, but he has been one of the most dependable veteran linemen of the last decade in my opinion.
Defensively, I’m looking at the guy who missed Kansas City’s Super Bowl run last year, after an excellent rookie campaign. Their secondary was the star of the show against Buffalo, to send them to the Super Bowl, by disrupting route patterns at the line of scrimmage and not allowing receivers to separate late. A big reason they felt comfortable doing that was their safety tandem, with Tyrann Mathieu being in more of a robber role and dropping down in Tampa-2, to go along with the rangy Juan Thornhill, who broke up four passes and nearly picked off two of them. Steve Spagnuolo has those safeties doing a ton of late rotations, bailing Daniel Sorensen out for two-high shells, Honeybadger turning into a freely roaming robber and often times Thornhill ending up as the deep middle safety. As a single-high defender, he makes it almost impossible to push the ball down the hashes and he has the ability to make plays outside numbers. That will be crucial against all the deep balls Tampa Bay attempts and if one of those corners loses Mike Evans or Antonio Brown off the line by lunging in press, he could be the guy who decides if there will be a 40+ yard gain or maybe even an interception, if Brady puts too much air under the ball and tries to give his receiver time to track it. I can’t wait to watch that chess game between the Chiefs’ second-year safety and the ultimate student of the game in Brady, who will try to manipulate him with his eyes and body language, in order to keep the defender away from where he wants to go with the ball.
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Prediction:

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On paper, the Bucs have the better and healthier roster at this moment. You look at the offensive line in particular, where they still have four of their day one starters, while the Chiefs’ only full-time starter at his original position is center Austin Reiter and they will have two guys at those tackle spots, that have barely never played there for Kansas City. In terms of pass-catchers, it’s hard to argue that you could put anybody above the Chiefs group of track stars, but you don’t need a full hand to count off the teams that you would put ahead of the Bucs. There is also a pretty clear advantage on the defensive line for the home team, when you look at them being top three in pressure percentage, while KC is outside the top ten. And while I would give the Chiefs the nod in terms of the back-end, seeing how they have stepped up so far this postseason at full health, the Bucs’ group has made plenty of plays to take them to the Super Bowl and linebacker is not even a competition, watching Devin White and Lavonte David fly around the field. And of course, they have the number one rush defense, while the Chiefs rank 21st, and they are both average at running the ball themselves.
Schematically, Tampa certainly has to make some adjustments, as I have already discussed in length, having solutions for the blitz packages Steve Spagnuolo will throw at them and not allowing the Chiefs two main weapons to beat them. Right now, I give the clear advantage to the reigning champs when it comes to the coaching staffs and as great as Brady has been for two decades now and the how clutch he has been on the game’s biggest stage, we may be witnessing the one guy, who has a chance of dethroning him one day as the GOAT. Spags has a proven track record of success against Brady and I’m sure Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been in the lab, cooking up new things to throw at the Bucs defense, figuring out ways to score points all four quarters, but in the end it comes down to Patrick Mahomes being able to make plays nobody else in football can. Shaq Barrett and JPP could have a field day against these two backup tackles and I think Todd Bowles will also have a couple of things up his sleeves that the Chiefs haven’t seen, but last year’s Super Bowl MVP is the ultimate equalizer. He will shake out of a sack and find Kelce for a huge third-down conversion and he will have another like twelve-step drop and fire a deep ball off his back-foot to break Tampa’s neck.
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Chiefs 34 – Bucs 28

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So give me the Chiefs here and I’ll take the chalk with Mahomes earning MVP honors, winning back-to-back titles and setting the foundation for a potential dynasty in Kansas City.
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If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece!
Also make sure to check out my video on the ten biggest questions heading into Super Bowl LV!
submitted by hallach_halil to nfl [link] [comments]

Mock Draft 1.0 - Deshaun Watson Trade?!?

My Mock Draft (1st Round only)
This is my first time posting a mock draft but have done quite a few through the years. I have no insight on what these teams will actually do this is just my prediction.
1st Round
**1. Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence (QB) - Clemson
Do I need to say more?
**2. NY Jets – Justin Fields (QB) - Ohio State
This is a tough one between fields and Wilson but I went with my gut. Fields seems to be the guy in most mock drafts and he goes to NY. The Jets have holes all over the field and take the guy that can make the most impact.
**3. Houston (Trade to Miami for 1.03, 1.18, 2022 third,and Tua Tagovailoa for Deshaun Watson and 2022 fifth round pick) - Penei Sewell (OT) - Oregon
Deshaun Watson is disgruntled and both teams improve. While Miami gives up two first round picks and Tua, they get a top 5 quarterback and Houston gets an abundance of draft capital and the 5th overall selection in the 2020 draft, Tua Tagovailoa.
Houston has a lot of options with their original pick but they select the unanimous all-American with the 3rd overall pick. The 20 year old so-called generational talent will provide Houston a solid RT that can protect Tua’s Blind side for years to come.
**4. Atlanta – Gregory Rousseau (EDGE) - Miami Hurricanes
Atlanta’s defense desperately needs an EDGE rusher and they find their guy. Rousseau opted out of the 2020 season, but if the 2019 stars are any indication of his potential, than the Falcons got a star.
**5. San Francisco (trade from Cincinnati for 1.12, 2022 first, 2023 second) – Zach Wilson (QB) - BYU
The San Francisco 49ers are a talented team with legitimate impact players on both sides of the ball. However, their quarterback situation continues to hold this team back. Kyle Shanahan has done his best with what he has had to work with but Jimmy Garoppolo and company simply are not getting the job done.
**6. Philadelphia – DeVonta Smith (WR) Alabama
While there is not much to get excited about with this team, they do have the sixth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, putting them in a position to add a legitimate impact player to the mix. Expect the Eagles to target either a cornerback or wide receiver with this pick and they have a couple of worthy options at both positions. That being said, Heisman Trophy-winning wide receiver DeVonta Smith stands out as the premier choice for this team.
**7. Detroit – Jamarr Chase (WR) - LSU
No matter who is the quarterback in Detroit, wide receiver will likely be a massive position of need for the team when the 2021 NFL Draft rolls around. With Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola all hitting free agency this offseason, the Lions could easily find themselves in a position where they need to add multiple impact receivers in the 2021 NFL Draft. It all depends on who they are able to bring back. Golladay will obviously be the priority, but will he even want to come back to Detroit?
**8. Carolina – Micah Parsons (LB) - Penn State
Decisions. Decisions. Carolina is in a tough spot with this choice and one that can determine their fate for the future. Do they select the fourth qb off the board or select a defensive asset and grab one of the few qbs in free agency and in a later round. In this spot, I believe they need to focus on defense. There will be a plethora of feasible quarterbacks on the market to pair with Bridgewater but filling the gap on defense is the top priority. Parsons is an elite athlete and will be a 3 down linebacker that never has to be subbed out.
**9. Denver – Caleb Farley (CB) - Virginia Tech
John Elway is no longer making all the decisions for the Broncos, and whether that’s a good or bad thing, they should manage to take a quality talent with the ninth overall selection. The Broncos have done a lot to build up their offense, so I’d expect their defense to be the priority early. Any position on the defense should be considered here, and taking the best available player is always the correct route. That player is Caleb Farley.
Farley is an athletic freak with superior length and great ball skills. His ability to close is elite, and his great ball skills make him an interception and deflection machine. In two years at Virginia Tech, he registered 6 interceptions and 19 pass deflections. That was as a true freshman and sophomore as well. The Broncos get a high upside corner to pair with Michael Ojemudia to form one of the most athletic and young cornerback duos in the NFL.
**10. Dallas – Patrick Surtain II (CB) - Alabama
Surtain, with his pedigree, size and ball-hawking skills, has the potential to be a true shutdown player. The Cowboys' secondary has been awful without Byron Jones and Surtain would be a good complement to fellow Alabama product Trevon Diggs. Jerry Jones needs to focus on shoring up the back end first in the process of fixing the defense.
**11. NY Giants – Kyle Pitts (TE) - Florida
The Giants need to give Daniel Jones more weapons and Kyle Pitts is the perfect guy for that. They spent a first-round pick on a tackle last year, so a No. 1 receiver makes the most sense. Kyle Pitts isn't technically a wide receiver, but he plays like one at tight end. With Pitts and Evan Engram, the Giants could utilize a potent two-tight end attack, which would really help Jones.
**12. Cincinnati (trade from San Francisco for 1.12) - Rashawn Slater (OL) - Northwestern
The Bengals trade back and get someone who can play any position on the OLine. Burrow needs protection drastically and they get a Swiss Army knife that paired with multiple free agent acquisitions can hopefully patch up the leaky offensive line.
**13. LA Chargers – Alex Leatherwood (OT) - Alabama
Los Angeles' offensive line is unspectacular and very average, but appeared more functional that it really was because of the standout play of rookie phenom, Justin Herbert. Despite a season where he put up record setting numbers for a rookie quarterback, Herbert was tied for the ninth most sacked signal caller (32) this past season. Seeing what befell fellow rookie standout triggerman for the Bengals, Joe Burrow (severe knee injury), the Chargers may want to take a long hard look at securing National Champion, Outland Trophy winner, Alex Leatherwood's services for next season. Leatherwood may be the most experienced and pro ready offensive lineman entering the draft. This past season, Leatherwood participated in 746 snaps and surrendered just two sacks.
**14. Minnesota – Kwity Paye (EDGE) - Michigan
Like a number of teams, Minnesota is in the market for a prolific pass rusher, and targeting Michigan Wolverines' edge specialist, Kwity Paye may be exactly who the Vikings are looking to acquire. In Paye's last 16 games played, he tallied 16.5 tackles for loss and eight and half sacks. He's more of a power rusher that can be effective with his hands on the ground, and is capable of stacking the line to foil run plays.
**15. New England – Jaylen Waddle (WR) - Alabama
Belichick needs to address multiple positions in this years draft but none are as important as QB and WR. Obviously you could go both ways here with Lance and Mac Jones on the board, but Waddle is an absolute game changer and paired with a FA QB such as Jimmy G, Matt Ryan, or Matt Stafford can bring the Patriots back to competing in the highly competitive AFC East.
**16. Arizona – Jaycee Horn (CB) - South Carolina
Cardinals are in a challenging position. With a difficult conference and some expensive players up for free agency, they need to invest in their defense in order to compete. Patrick Peterson, Dre Kirkpatrick, Johnathan Joseph, and Kevin Peterson are all scheduled to be free agents and obviously it is too early to tell who is returning. Horn will a day one starter who can be cheap and effective.
**17. Las Vegas – Christian Barmore (IDL) - Alabama
The Raiders had options here with Christian Barmore and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah all available. However, their need for an interior presence far outweighs a cornerback or linebackesafety hybrid. The Raiders have invested a lot in their defense, both with draft capital and free agency spending. They only seem like a few pieces away from a playoff-level defense, and Barmore puts them that much closer.
Barmore has been the best defender in the country over the last few weeks, wreaking havoc on any opponent. Similar to former Alabama first-rounder Da’Ron Payne, Barmore saved his best play for the brightest lights. In the college football postseason, he registered 10 total tackles, three for loss, and two sacks. He’s the top interior defender in the class, and the Raiders find solid value at 17 in this 3-round 2021 NFL Mock Draft.
**18. Houston – Azeez Olujari (EDGE) - Georgia
Houston has already drafted a franchise level tackle, now it’s time to address other needs. Unfortunately for them, the best corners are taken but there are some elite EDGEs still on the board. Azeez Olujari is an elite edge ready to make an immediate impact.
**19. Washington – Trey Lance (QB) - NDSU
The Football Team would like to take a QB here, and that’s exactly what happens. Lance is a raw prospect with only 20 games played and there is plenty of worries on if his game can transfer but the physical traits are hard to pass up. With comparisons to Josh Allen, and 0 interceptions in all of 2019, Washington is getting a QB that will inherit a playoff squad.
**20. Chicago – Alijah Vera-Tucker (IOL) - USC
Chicago urgently needs to fill their Offensive line holes in order for them to be a threat in the NFC north next year. By grabbing Alijah Vera-Tucker, they get a player that can play all across the OL.
**21. Indianapolis – Christian Darrisaw (OT) - Virginia Tech
Indianapolis has some glaring holes in WR and QB but the need for a OT is evident after the retirement of LT Anthony Costanzo. Indy finds their guy for the future.
**22. Tennessee - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB) - ND
Tennessee needs to address the defensive side of the ball badly. Jeremiah is the Best player available and an instant hole filler.
**23. NY Jets via SEA – Sam Cosmi (OT) - Texas
Although the Jets passed earlier on the opportunity to get Sewell, they get an OT here to defend Fields. Cosmi is an imposing individual and will fill a much needed while on the the NYJ opposite of Becton.
**24. Pittsburgh – Mac Jones (QB) - Alabama
Mac Jones becomes the replacement for Big Ben and fills a much needed whole. As one of the the fastest risers in the draft, Jones is an accurate passer who doesn’t make mistakes. While Pouncey’s retirement is looming, Pitt looks to fill their hole at QB.
**25. Jacksonville via LAR – Zaven Collins (EDGE) - Tulsa
Having selected Trevor Lawrence, Urban Meyer knows the next step to winning is domination in the trenches. Collins is an elite EDGE that dominated college football this year. Look for Collins to be one of the combine’ top talked about.
**26. Cleveland – Dylan Moses (LB) - Alabama
Cleveland needs to urgently look at their LB play and Moses can fill the hole. Moses has his worries nonetheless with injury problems and doubts on his decision making.
**27. Tampa Bay – Eric Stokes (CB) - Georgia
Buccaneers need to address the cornerback position opposite of Pro Bowler Carlton Davis III if they want to make the most of Brady’s years in Tampa. Enter Eric Stokes. The 6-foot-1, 185-pound Georgia defensive back has the frame, skill-set, and technical understanding to fit as a press-coverage field cornerback at the NFL level. Stokes' hips and feet are fluid both through contact and when playing off coverage, putting him in the right coverage position more often than not. His length allows him to not only jam receivers at the line, but also make plays on the ball as they come his way.
**28. Baltimore – Rondale Moore (WR) - Minnesota
It was evident in the playoff loss to Buffalo that in order to progress in the AFC, Baltimore will need to address the WR position. While they can look in free agency at the likes of Kenny Golladay or Chris Godwin, drafting Rondale Moore will give the Ravens a cheap, young player that perfectly fits their needs.
**29. New Orleans – Kyle Trask (QB) - Florida
NO’s QB spot is a question mark. They have a 42 year old, Drew Brees, who most likely will retire this offseason along with Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston. While they look to move on, I’m not sure if the Saints can pass up an opportunity on Trask.
**30. Buffalo – Joseph Ossai (EDGE) - Texas
While the Bills don’t have many glaring holes, they look to booster their defensive line and get back to their 2019 production. They receive many trade offers to trade back up but ultimately find their guy in Ossai.
**31. Tampa Bay (Trade from Green Bay for 2.58, 2022 third, and 2022 second ) – Najee Harris (RB) - Alabama
Bucs trade up and get a game changing RB that can help the bucs compete in the NFC.
**32. Kansas City – Jaelen Phillips (EDGE)- Miami
KC needs to improve their pass rush if they are going to continue to be a threat in the AFC and they find a high motor elite pass rush option in Phillips.
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nfl picks and predictions week 7 2020 video

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