EPL Predictions English Premier League Model Betfair

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Chelsea is more likely to qualify for Champions League, than not.

As of the time of this post both model predictions and the betting market estimates the probability of Chelsea qualifying for Champions League (CL) to be over 50 %.
betfair gives Chelsea 2.62 to finish top 4 (https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish), and 2.62 to win Europa League (EL) (https://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/winner). That corresponds to probabilities of 38.17 % and 38.17 %.
For Chelsea NOT to qualify for CL Chelsea must not finish top 4 and not win EL. The probability for that is: (100 % - 38.17 %) x (100 % - 38.17 %) = 38.23 %
The opposite is Chelsea qualifying for CL which then has a probability of: (100 % - 38.23 %) = 61.77 %
FiveThirtyEight gives Chelsea a probability of 33 % to finish top 4 (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/), and 34 % to win EL (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/europa-league/).
The same calculation as above (Chelsea not qualifying): (100 % - 33 %) x (100 % - 34 %) = 44.22 %
Probability for Chelsea to qualify is then: (100 % - 44.22 %) = 55.78%
My conclusion is that the season is more likely to end as a success, than not.
edit: "*" had been changed for "/" for some reason, used "x" instead.
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What does SPM stand for as a team/player prop bet?

You can bet this team/player prop on sites like Betfair but I can't find out what it is. You can bet it as O/U or H2H. Shots per m_______?
Example Betfair match page: https://www.betfair.com/sport/football/english-premier-league/newcastle-v-crystal-palace/29615926
Examples bets:
Messi > Plea SPM
Messi > Immobile SPM
Asensio > Vazquez spm
Barcelona u7.5 SPM
Real Madrid u5.5 SPM
Ronaldo > Costa SPM
Messi > Vinicius SPM
Real u5.5 SPM
Willian ö0.5 SPM
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[GUIDE] How I turned €500 into €15000 without risk / What have I learnt about betting during the last two years.

This is going to be a long read, and English is not my tongue language so excuse me in case there are some grammar mistakes.
I will try to explain from my experience which methods I have used during the last two years to make money in this business. Some of them worked pretty well, some of them not that good, but still I want to share with you guys some tips specially for those who just began on Betting.
To make this clear: The strategy I used and I am still using to make money on betting is the Bonus Hunting strategy I am explaining below. The rest of this post are tips and other methods which I have tryied but *not with that good results, and of course, with risk*
BETTING TIPS
There are PLENTY of amazing posts / comments about this here, but it's always good the have a reminder. From my experience this are some of them:
1. BONUS HUNTING
That's way so far the best betting method I have ever used. It takes time to Master but it's really simply an everybody can do it. I am sure you all have heard of that. Just in case you didn't do it yet, here's a basic guide:
Eg) Bet365 offers €100 to new Users if you deposit €100. (They also give a €50 phone-bonus with small requeriments). Of course you can not withdraw the money inmediatly. You have to move the money X times before that.
The requeriments for Bet365 in Spain are x4. So Bonus money + Deposit money x4. That makes 800 EUR. And the minimum odd is 1,5 and you CAN'T bet on Asian Lines.
What do I do now? Well, you just have to sign up in different betting houses and move the money. Or in other words, bet against yourself. You will need a Surebet software for that, you can easily find one on the Internet. In my case I use this one because it's pretty simple.
All the betting softwares work more or less the same way, they show:
-Profit: Bet between -1,5% +2,5%. AVOID betting at 45% surebets because that's a mistake from the bookies, they will change your odd after betting if you get lucky to place your bet before they notice of their mistake.
-Bookmarker: Here it will show up between which bookmarkers you have to place your bet. For example, you have now €200 in Bet365, and you just sign up on Pinnacle. Then you have to deposit money on Pinnacle and place the bet in both websites. Let's say Arsenal-Chelsea. Over 2,5 goals in Bet365 is @2 and Under 2,5 goals in Pinnacle is @2,03. No matter what happens that you will make 0,83% profit and you will have moved €200 of those €800 you have to move. Or even better than that, let's say the Final Score of the match is 1-1, so U2,5 goals. In that case you would have won your bet on Pinnacle, which means that you would have made aprox. €200 profit on Pinnacle and you would have lost €100 in Bet365 (Remember that from those €200 just €100 are yours, the rest is the bonus part). You have won €200 on Pinn, you have lost €100 on Bet. So totally you have made €100 in just one bet.
That's the best case, hunting the bonus in just one move. If the final score would have been 2-2, then you would have made your 0,83% profit and keep betting between Bet365 and other bookies until you would have moved the €800.
-Event: That's where you are going to bet. YOU NEVER BET ON SPORTS OR MARKETS BEFORE DOING RESEARCH.
Eg) Liverpool-Aston Villla
Over 3,5 cards @2
Under 3.5 cards @2
Seems like a good way to move your money. But you have to know that a red card in some BH is considered as 1 card and in some others is considered as 2 yellow cards.
Let's say there was 2 yellow cards and 1 red card: That would make 3 cards in one BH and 4 in another one. Imagine O3,5 was were the red cards count as one and U3,5 where red cards count as two. You would have lost all your money.
How do I know which ammount I have to bet on every case? Let's say you have found a nice 2,7% profit bet between two betting houses and you have a bonus in one of them. You will get the bonus and also the profit, that's a good one. This betting house offers a €100 bonus if you deposit the same amount. So now you would bet €200 in one side and X amount on the other side.
Let's say ManUtd vs Hull City:
MU Asian Handicap -0,5 @1,97 - Betting House 1 (You have the bonus here)
Hull City X2 @2,06 - Betting House 2
You would bet €200 @1,97 at BH 1 and €191,26 at BH2. Here's the link from one calculator I'm using (all work the same way).
THINGS YOU MUST KNOW:
You can only hunt the bonus ONCE per person which means that If you want to continue doing this method you will have to find more people who wants to do it. That's what I have done, friends of mine gave me the documents I needed + PayPal/NetelleSkrill verified account and I do it for them. Of course I pay them around €100-€150. Which is not bad money for them considering they have to do nothing almost. Is it hard to find people? Well, I have 6 on the line right now, everybody wants money for free specially if they are students.
How much money do I need for getting started? I would say around €500. So you can sign up for a €100 Bonus depositing €200 in another house and you still have some extra-money just in case you win all your bets on the 'Bonus Betting House' and you haven't moved enough money to make the withdrawal yet. Once you start making money you can do this method for more than one person at the same time.
How much money can I make? Depends on the betting houses available in your country and the number of persons you are doing at once. UK is the best one so far (more BH, more offers) Spain is pretty good also. You have to do your own research for your country.
2. ARBITRAGE BETTING That's what you use for hunting the bonus - moving money between two betting houses without risk because you have placed bets on all the possible options -. You can do it independently. If your country has acces to betting houses where you don't get limit you can move money between them at high profit ranges.
Eg) Valencia-Sevilla.
BBTS YES @2,3 - Betting House 1
BBTS NO @1,97 - Betting House 2
There is a 6,85% profit on this Bet. Which is amazing. Now you could place a €2000 bet. For example betting €1032,72 on option 1 and €1205,69 in option two you would make €136,82 no matter what happens.
What is the problem with this method?
3. TRADING I have done Betting Trading for a while, you can do it WHILE the match is being played or before that. What is the method about? It's about trying to figure out what the odds of one match are going to do before they do. Obviously you need to have strong information about the match you want to bet on.
*Eg) Based on this week. Dortmund-Real Madrid. Dortmund to win opening odd was @2,78 (15th September). The odd right before the match for the same bet was @2,23. WHY? Well, because something has happened between these time. Real Madrid couldn't win Las Palmas the 24th + some injuries + Cristian Ronaldo haven't done his best. And Dortmund won Wolfsburf 1-5 and Freiburg 3-1 in 3 days.
Now let's see somehow you could have seen that Real Madrid would have trouble in Las Palmas stadium and Dortmund would continue winning on Bundesliga.
Let's say you placed a €1000 bet on Dortmund to win @2,78 (day when the bookies offered the match). Then you waited and right before the match was started you bet €1588 on Real Madrid +0,5 @1,75.
You would have made €191,43 and the match would't have even started.*
Check it yourself here
Of course this a risky-long term example, but you can do it before and after the lines-ups. If you think some player won't play because you have strong information about that, place your bet, wait for the odd to raise up and close the bet on the other side aftertwards.
Does anyone really make money this way? Yes. Let's say you know a professional tipster with a lot of subscribers. When this guy shows the next bet a lot of people who have payed for that service will bet there, and usually big amounts of money. If you somehow know where the influential-tipster is going to bet before he posts it to his subscriptors you have your business done. Open bet, wait for the odd to go down, close bet other side.
What does people who doesn't have access to this kind of information (mostly everybody)?. They do big research, check a lot of pages, be documented as posible. If you find something really good some or later the odd will drop. But it's hard to find.
Where to do trading? Pinnacle doesn't limit, that's why most of people uses that BH. Also betfair is an excelent option for this kind of methods.
Good luck with your betting!
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European giants fail in high-profile derbies

The weekend was pretty intense for football fans, with Real Madrid and Barcelona going head to head in the most important match in La Liga. Real Madrid was already three points behind the leader and sleeping any further would of damage their chances to win the title. The home side was credited with the first chance by bookmakers and Betfair offered extraordinary odds to those willing to back them. By comparison, Barcelona was in superb form and the news that Messi was expected to return, further bolster their chances. The Argentinian superstar didn't featuring the starting formation, but when he entered the pitch in the second half, he was a real threat for the home side. Barcelona was already ahead at that point, hammering Real Madrid and scoring for unanswered goals. Truth be told, the hosts had their fair share of opportunities, but Cristiano Ronaldo and his offensive teammates failed to find a way to the goal. A string of personal and team has resulted in one of the most lopsided victory for Barcelona and yet another humiliation for Real Madrid. By using this fixture, they have also forsaken their chances to win the trophy, as six points are extremely difficult to recuperate. Across the English Channel, Manchester City was expected to triumph fairly easy against Liverpool, but things took a turn for the worse. The home side started the match lacking conviction in its ability by the time they woke up, Liverpool was already three goals ahead. The hosts finally scored one goal of their own, but the visitors responded immediately and the final score was a shocking 1-4. For most of the season, Manchester City proudly sat at the top of the Premier League and once again it looked like the battle will be fought with their city rivals. Manchester United took advantage of their relatively easy schedule and defeated Watford on the road, to once again tie the leaders. Arsenal was unable to hold onto its lead and a shocking defeat prevented them from putting some distance between them and the leading pack. Elsewhere in Europe, AC Milan was defeated by Juventus on the road in a match that could've gone either way. The home side scored a single goal but was once again amazing at defending the league and they continue to claw their way to the top after a disappointing season start.
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Aston Villa vs Liverpool odds, preview and predictions

Sunday 14/02/2016, 15:00, Premier League, Round 26 Aston Villa vs Liverpool Preview There is very little that Aston Villa can do to salvage the season after losing so many points both at home and on the road, yet the team from Birmingham won't stop trying. They sit in the last place and only managed to accumulate 16 points after 25 rounds and only a miracle can help them avoid relegation. Liverpool doesn't fare much better and they were recently eliminated from the FA cup as well, with the Europa League looming. Aston Villa vs Liverpool Odds At Betfair Aston Villa 4.70, Draw 3.50, Liverpool 1.80 Aston Villa vs Liverpool Tips Since Klopp took over, Liverpool was unable to return to the top and is on the verge of sleeping in the second half of the standings. Both at home and on the road the team has been mediocre to say the least and they are currently mired in a four-game winless streak. Even when they managed to score, their opponents somehow found the resources and energy to rebound and deprived them of victory. Perhaps the most frustrating result of this month is the 2-2 draw against Sunderland, in a match that Liverpool lead from start to finish. It was a shining example of how a better team can lose points due to the fact that players were not careful enough in the second half. They should learn from those mistakes and exercise constant pressure against Aston Villa regardless of the score. Football fans from Birmingham always flock into the stadium when Aston Villa is playing against one of the most prestigious teams in the English championship. Even though Liverpool is struggling both at home and on the road, their visit is not going to go unnoticed. It's very likely that the home side will throw everything his got at the visitors, knowing that next year they will probably play against mediocre teams. This presents Liverpool with a rare opportunity of scoring more goals, because they have a hard time winning against teams that defend with all lines. They will need to address a couple of pressing matters, such as the injuries sustained by for players including Brazilian star Coutinho. Key Facts Liverpool hasn't won in five games and the fans won't settle for a single point against Aston Villa. The home side has the worst record in the entire Premier League and home pitch advantage means little. Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction Liverpool will be playing offensive football despite the fact that they don't have the support of their fans and will settle for nothing less than outright victory. Odds of 1.80 are not that great given their recent results, but you can't hope for better value than these odds currently offered by Betfair. Bet: Liverpool @ 1.80 with Betfair
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Boosted odds for Premier League top games this weekend

This is a great weekend for those who enjoy betting on English football in general and the Premier League matches in particular. Bookmakers are scrambling to offer tempting promotions and bonuses to all those who open a new account or place real money wagers. These campaigns range from cash prizes and free bets to reimbursements on those wagers that end up losing. BetVictor is offering boosting odds on several Premier League matches, including the less prominent confrontation between Arsenal and Newcastle. Those who place a wager on this game and predict that Arsenal will prevail, will enjoy odds of 4/1, but only new members qualify for this campaign. Ladbrokes is running its very own promotion this weekend, with the bookmaker encouraging punters to bet on several games at the same time. Not only the odds are multiplied as a result, but if one selection loses, the player will have the stakes reimbursed in the form of a free bet. Accumulator bets are also very profitable if you wager with Bet365 and this bookmaker has expanded its promotion to include Serie A, Primera Liga, Bundesliga 1 or Champions League in addition to the English first flight. The highlight of the weekend is without a doubt the match between Manchester United and Liverpool and it is Paddy Power who makes the most tempting proposition. Signing up with his bookmaker will result in players enjoying odds of 11/2 for Man Utd to beat Liverpool on Sunday. If you hope to win more money and have a couple of games in mind, don't hesitate to take the bookie on its Premier League Acca offer for new customers. Wagering on Chelsea, Man City and Man Utd all to win will result in odds of 10/1. Betfair is one of the most popular betting exchanges and those who hope to cash in on better odds usually find a home here. This weekend alone, the bookmaker is offering odds of 3/1 for Chelsea to outshine Hull and new customers will also have their stakes refunded if they happen to lose this initial wager. The other match that is generously covered by the online gambling operator is the one between Arsenal and Newcastle. The hosts are overwhelming favorite to prevent, therefore the odds are not impressive but if you open an account with Betfair you can bump them to a massive value of 4/1.
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Peoples personal strategies.

Before I start this, I'd just like to make note that I do know that every bet is never 100% certain and no one could possibly tell a score or a win for sure.
That being said; I'll be betting on English premier league soon and I've only started to get into football during the Euros and I made £100 but blew it all on a few stupid bets. I would like to make around £700 in the next year or so, it would be nice to hear some of your personal strategies and golden rules. I used to bet on Counter-Strike and always won quite a bit. I'll be using betfair to bet on football. Thanks guys.
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[Table] IAmA: IAm Sheila Norman-Culp, leader of the AP “Dirty Game” investigation into match-fixing in soccer. AMA

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2013-02-20
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Link to my post
Questions Answers
Did you see that ludicrous display last night? I assume u are talking re Arsenal. yes, yes yes. Not as gut-slamming bad as Saturday's disaster against Blackburn, but no fun for sure.
What was the most surprising facet of the story that you discovered? I was shocked at the Amazonian river of money that sports betting generates... the Interpol chief Ron Noble says several billion euros a year, an ex-FIFA official has said up to $500 billion a year. BILLION...! if you are a criminal mastermind, all you have to do is use some fixed games to deliver a tiny sliver of that and you will be wealthier than you ever imagined. That's about the yearly GNP of Switzerland, no slouch economy.
This is the crazy thing to me, how many people are betting on what are ultimately not high level events. I would like to think that high levels of betting on one side of a small matchup could be observed and regulated. Until lately, no one thought to look for match-fixing in the soccer wilderness. but extremely low level games in Finland, Norway and Canada that were fixed proved that theory wrong. for fixers, best thing is virgin territory not already claimed by other fixers...
Which mobs were most involved? Turkish? Russian? Romanian? Prolly the shorter list would be what mobs DON'T want to get involved with match-fixing... AP talked to Turkish commentators who said fixing allegations have cropped up every year for at least 40 years, and even Turkish prosecutors in court documents noted that mobs had infiltrated Turkish soccer since at least 1980... As for Russia, one illegal Asian betting den that an AP reporter visited wouldn't even touch bets for Russia's 2nd division (or Greece's for that matter). Even illegal sites know when to run! Italy's match-fixing has produced over $2.6 billion for the Camorra and the Mafia. And since the vast majority of sports betting money originates in Asia, Asian crime gangs are said to be intimately involved in fixing games.
Where in Asia is the money coming from? It's coming both from billions of small bettors (betting is a way of life i many Asian countries) and from Asian crime gangs who are recycling dirty money to launder it.
How is the research going on the dinamo zagreb - olimpique game, where olimpique scored just enough goals to kick Ajax out of the champions league? Ah yes, where a zagreb player winked on a YouTube clip. plenty of suspicions, Ajax started howling immediately, no good evidence ever emerged. was about the same time in which Croatian first league (where dinamo played) was riddled with match-fixing (see our story about Croatia Seveste player Mario Cizmek) but dinamo never implicated in those trials.
To borrow from Grantland's Brian Phillips, "How #*%!ed is the beautiful game?" It's more &&#$ than top officials want to publicly admit. There are large areas of the world where football has been not only infiltrated by criminals but is being run by criminals. Last year in China, two ex-chiefs of its FA (football association for American fans) got 10 1/2 years in prison for corruption. In 2011, the national TV channel in China REFUSED to broadcast matches from the Chinese League due to widespread match-fixing. I can't imagine the reax here in London if Sky or the BBC refused to broadcast Premier League games...
What is the highest level that you believe some form of match fixing has taken place? European competition? WC qualifying? Where is match fixing most prevalent? Well, our FIFA correspondent Graham Dunbar says that depends if you include the 1982 World Cup West Germany-Austria game, which appeared to be a deal with the teams. FIFA changed its rules after that so games at the end of rounds start simultaneously. More recently you have the 2010 WC qualifier between Liechtenstein and Finland ... and Latam types will always debate whether the WC 1978 Argentina 6, peru 0 was fixed, sent host Argentina into final...
So...Juventus. As a fan, I just have to know. How involved are they in match fixing? They're always surrounding by rumors of it. Hmmm. where to start? well, going way back, juventus reputedly bough the ref in the 193 European Cup semifinal, according to one of our top football guys... and they were pretty front and center in Italy's 2006 match-fixing scandal, where they were regulated to Serie B (2nd division), got 9 points deducted, got hit by a massive fine, got stripped of their 2006-07 league titles, got tossed out of the Champions League for a year. Their club president at the time was fined and banned from the sport for five years. Their current coach, Antonio Conte, just got back in December from a 4-month FIFA ban for a separate match-fixing allegation. As Premier Mario Monti said, maybe Italian football should just shut down for a few years to get rid of that corruption thing...
I have to ask. Have you or anyone in your agency been approached or threatened as a result of your investigations? Gotta give kudos here to Chris Brummett, our Vietnam bureau chief, who visited a Wild West betting boomtown on the border of Cambodia. Going around illegal Asian betting dens, talking with bettors about fixed matches, looking for hints of Asian triad involvement. Not a place that you could take TV cameras or where bettors would let u take a picture, that's for sure. And when I was filming a TV segment at a Zagreb stadium with a player convicted of match-fixing, all of a sudden we saw that a photog with a long lens was zooming in on us. The guy came over to see what we were doing, I made sure not to speak a word of English and our photographer Darko talked to him. After that, Darko said "it's time to go." When a photog who just got back from Syria says its time to go, u go.
Do you think that this type of match fixing also extends into American sports such as Major League Baseball or the National Football League? I think of a game like the Super Bowl with all the money bet on it and I can't help but wonder if games are often fixed or the outcome affected artificially. Super Bowl betting is big in the US but is tiny in relation to global soccer betting. And the Super Bowl has one big thing that keeps it from being fixed -- very high player salaries. Players in countries like Croatia are match-fixing sometimes for as little as 2500 euros ($3300). Major league baseball salaries and NFL salaries are too high -- and you need to involve too many players to ensure a rock-solid fix. In soccer, the goalie alone has enough influence to fix a game by himself.
Where do the criminal gangs get the action on? Betfair? For a blow-by-blow account of how it all goes down, check out these links: Player who rues getting involved in match-fixing: Link to apne.ws Unwritten rules of match-fixing: Link to apne.ws
How exactly does it work? The players just play terribly when instructed? The criminals have money on the over? In terms of the betting, there's about five-six levels of betting in Asia, which leads from local illegal betting shops that deal in cash to next level, regional betting houses, still in cash, to next level, super betting sites, to online betting sites that take credit cards and are openly operating. Asian betting sites don't know their customers, so its easier to disguise large wagers as many small ones. European betting sites know their customers via credit cards, but criminals can use fake credit cards. anyone who knows about a fixed game can bet on whichever betting site offers the odds
Where are most of these criminal organizations based? What country? Are international matches ever fixed(England vs San Marino or something) or just club matches? Actually 'friendlies' between two nations are a prime target for fixers, because football associations can hire agencies (some of which later turn out to be fronts for fixers) to arrange the games and give a cut of the proceeds (or even bribes) to corrupt FA officials Just imagine, in a friendly you can get world-class talent for free and they can generate gobs of TV revenues. some suspect friendlies in recent times: Nigeria-Argentina 2011, one or more South Africa friendlies right before the World Cup, Bolivia-Latvia 2011, Bulgaria-Estonia 2011, several Latam games involving Venezuela and Bolivia. These are all men's games, so far no whiff of suspicion among women's friendlies.
Is there any suspicion of fixing in women's soccer in the past Olympics? It has bothered a lot of people the way the gold medal game finished. It didn't make any sense at all. Edit: I did mean semi final. My bad. No, so far no reports of match-fixing in any women's games. in fact, some of the bettors AP interviewed in the illegal Cambodian den were at the time betting on live women's U-20 game between New Zealand and Japan just because they felt it was not fixed.
Has there been any instances when you had suspicion BEFORE a match? What do you think about the recent EUROPOL expose about the 380 european matches? What does only 1 english match (liverpool v debrecen)(albeit english team not involved) say about how things are done in uk v thing elsewhere.what is it that they are doing right/others doing wrong? Me and another AP reporter have visited a betting monitoring site that runs 31,000 games thru computer models to see if they may be fixed. Companies like that can often see if games are suspicious up to two days before a match _ ie they know if XXX amount bet on a Italian league game is normal or way off. They also keep tabs on 110,000 players, teams, refs and officials and give them match-fixing credit scores... they have seen where a suspicious player changes teams and infects a previously untouched team with his knowlege of fixing... Only one match in England reflects high premier league salaries that protect the players and the game. But bet monitors do have one person on their top 20 'to watch' match-fixing suspicions list that lives in the UK.
What is the best part about your job? The sheer variety. I mean there are some things we can plan for _ we know when the 2012 London Olympics will start _ but you never know each day what will happen. Will an Icelandic volcano erupt and blow the travel plans of 10 million people to bits? Or maybe a meteor will hit Russia? i am constantly amazed.
How has the series been received by soccefootball officials? It seems to expose some dirty laundry and gotten news and TV pickups across the globe. Yes, we were very happy with the wide range of media that picked up the stories _ everything from papers in Thailand to ESPN and Sports Illustrated to non-sports outlets like Huffpost and Salon.com.
Which team do you support and who is your favorite player? Well, i live and work now in north London, so i would be crucified if I didnt keep up with Arsenal (condolences will be accepted here today). Favorite player, hmm. got two. Fernando Torres because i was living in Zurich during Euro 2008 (he was electric then) and he looks just like my hubby did years ago with his freckles; Robin van Persie now because the man just dances on the field, a joy to watch.
Fernando Torres is my favorite too, and believe me he will be electric again! and another question, what is the most memorable match you have ever watched live at a stadium? At a family level, I brought my ten-year-old daughter and her soccer team to see the American women play at Giants stadium in NJ when the US hosted the Women's World Cup in 1999... Mia Hamm and her buddies really inspired a generation.
Do you see any problem/conflict with betting companies (such as Bwin) being significant sponsors of the game? Betting companies are always going to advertise next to matches, its the smart operating model for their business. but it is interesting how they can be in severe denial about match-fixing. I went to a London betting conference in Nov, and a top representative from Ladbrokes insisted to me that 'maybe 5-6' games were fixed a year. he claimed that some betting monitoring companies have an incentive to say there are hundreds of possibly fixed games a year just so they would get contracts from FIFA, UEFA, national leagues. On the other hand, his own industry has a HUGE interest in not talking about fixed games -- who is going to bet if they think things are fixed? he did me a big favor though - AP reporters could not get into the monitoring sites until we reported his ludicrous comment to them.
How does it start? Does someone from the criminal organization approach a player in a shady alley? Do players that fix games do so repeatedly? Do multiple players on a team need to be bought to pull off the fix? And finally, how do the criminal organizations actually make money off fixed games? Presumably by placing the bets they've arranged, but don't the people taking their bets get suspicious? What i'm going to do is give u some link to our stories that explain all this. ironically, match-fixers often groom players just like pedophiles groom targets, according to a major 2012 study on sports corruption. Players can be seduced into fixing by other coaches or players or agents. Or they can be ordered to fix by their corrupt soccer club bosses. Or they can have no idea a game is fixed because the refs were bought off instead. so many ways to match-fix...!
How in the world would FIFA (or possibly another organization) go about fixing this or at least starting to fix it? Is the problem already too deep that anything other than a complete scrub of all teams and parties involved would fail? And could the sport even survive something like that or would it be best for the game if everyone just operated like business as usual? FIFA's latest anti-match-fixing project is to educate players and refs about the problem. A noble idea, for sure, one that no one can find fault with. but it's kinda like warning your kids not to play with matches when your kitchen is already on fire and that may burn down your whole house. Time to get out the big firehose. Let's not forget how doping has driven sponsors and TV revenues away from cycling or even track. And soccer authorities also have another problem -- their own officials may be the ones driving the fixing. A major sports corruption report last year even gave that a label "chairman-to-chairman" fixing. in turkey last year, 93 people went on trial for match-fixing, and only 14 were players. I think the best model to emulate is germany's, its FA has a omsbudman where players, refs, anyone can call to report fixing worries anonymously.
Is it anyway connected to the fixed cricket games and why is this not getting as much coverage considering soccer is a much larger sport? And do you think the Ireland v France world cup 2010 qualifier was fixed, where Thiery Henry blatantly hand-balled to knock Ireland out of the competition? That was one darn obvious handball but absolutely no suggestion of fixing in that. as we say in our Dirty Game series, referees and players can perform poorly for all sorts of legitimate reasons. Gotta say, American fans could never stomach bad ref calls like that, that's why they love NFL instant replay. the concept that such a bad call could knock a team out... it's why the NFL had to end its referee lockout...
It's amazing how deep seeded the corruption is in the sport. Do you know how much money was made globally from the match fixing (an estimate)?? FIFA has estimated between $5 billion and $15 billion a year. not chump change.
I think it's more spot-fixing than match-fixing, right? Or at least the higher up the leagues go, the more it deviates towards spot rather than match. If you got any knowlege of this, let FIFA/UEFA/the national leagues know. AP took a deep dive into fixing in Croatia's first division, (let me tell u google translator is a mess with croatian court transcripts) and found both match and spot fixing in the same games. one sports expert, David Forrest of University of Salford, says that's a great way for gangs to increase revenues, you get to place two-three-four bets on the same fixed game.
Do you think that the punishment for participants should be more severe the further up the ladder the investigation goes? That is, should the first-year first-teamer found to have been involved be given less of a penalty than the national team star? Or should a message be sent with uniform penalties for even the least involvement? Hmm. it's kinda like doping in that you need zero tolerance. That said, its clear that match-fixers target players like lions on the savannah, picking off the young (easy to manipulate) the old (nearing the end of their employment, fearing what's next) and the weak (those with betting problems or financial difficulties. Young players lured into fixing by older players should get lesser sentences if it's found that they were forced or pressured into it. Older players (or refs hitting age limits) should get harsher penalties because they absolutely knew what they were doing. national stars who fix bring shame upon an entire nation but the fixing penalities should be the same no matter what the league.
Do you feel like, historically, there has been more corruption in Italian leagues, or is it more a matter of the Italian investigations being more frequent and successful in revealing the corruption and making cases stick? There's no question that Italy has had repeated, major match-fixing instances at least since 2005. And each case seems to bring new amazing allegations. My all time favorite is the goalie who wanted to fix a game, so he drugs the water bottles of his teammates to play poorly. they stink, lose the game, and one even crashes his car afterward. Since Italy takes drunk driving quite seriously, the driver gets a blood test which shows he is full of sedatives, and the whole fixing operation is unveiled. can't make this up. I give plenty of kudos to Italian prosecutor Roberto Di Martino but the country has had plenty of corruption issues in all walks of life ... , so i dont think we can just credit good prosecutors for us hearing about italian match-fixing
At what point do you as an organisation decide that you will look into that matter. How did this all start - or better yet, what event triggered this investigation? We noticed that AP was doing about a dozen match-fixing spot stories around the world a month... but it was country by country. This trial, that arrest, this investigation. It was time to look at the whole of the sport, something that fits an international news agency better than a local or national paper. I had been interested in match-fixing since i covered FIFA for AP in 2007-2008 and did a story when they first set up their EWS monitoring site. got promoted to London, distracted by volcanos and a wonderful London Olympics, but began interviewing people last june.
Glad to oblige blatter? justkidding. What i should have said yesterday -- this AMA is about match-fixing, not Blatter. Blatter is such a vast topic that he needs a whole 'nuther forum. Maybe ask him to come on himself.
How do you stop match fixing? Whoever figures that out gets a nobel peace prize.
Do you have any knowledge of match fixing in Latin America? Specifically Libertadores Cup and Brazilian and Argentinian national leagues? Bolivia and Venezuela have had several suspicious friendlies, Guatemala had 3 players banned in recent months for fixing.
What do you have to say about one of the most outrageous things that happened in the last decade: Lyon 7-1 Zagreb leaving Ajax out of CL? Everyone seems to have forgotten about that thing and no one ever really talked or investigate that game further. That is certainly the one game that Europeans came away thinking must be fixed. it would be a great subject for a magzine piece. maybe when everyone in that game has retired, more might come out.
Which league do you believe to be the most corrupt? Even if it isn't one you've investigated. Impossible to say. too many candidates.
My dad used to bet on soccer matches with his buddies frequently, and pointed out how he would know if a match is fixed or not depending on the players' reactions during a penalty kick. Apparently, whenever a player looks backwards before taking a penalty, he is always looking for a signal as to whether or not he is allowed to make the goal. Is there any merit to this conspiracy theory that my dad and his friends developed? Wild theory, too bad it's prolly not true -- they must have been drinking pretty heavily! If a game is fixed by players, they know beforehand and they know exactly what marks they need to hit: X-X score at halftime, X-X final result, X goal differential. No need to look over their shoulder, they already know if they should make it or not. If the game is fixed by club officials, they have already told their players what to do. If the game is fixed by referees, often players don't even know. They might think it's a ridiculous penalty call but they are not going to hurt their stats, they are going to try to make the penalty.
Who's going to win the European Cup? Going to leave all game analysis to commentators and Match of the Day boys. I'm just all about corruption.
Are there times when two different groups try to fix a match with conflicting goals? This was a significant problem in Asia, and its a terrible business model when two crime gangs are trying to fix the same game. That propeled at least Asian gangs to seek out more European games, which were considered several years ago to be much cleaner. One monitor told me about a match in which his company's spotters at the game saw thugs from two different crime gangs shouting with the ref at halftime. Only one side won. (think the ref in that case had a death wish or was just blinded by greed)
What is the most common betting market on fixed games? A straight win? or something like over 2.5 goals? Or even corners or number of cards? Do you bet on any games? I don't bet on sports, not after seeing all this...! The most common bets on fixed games are four things: final score, half-time score, total number of scores and score differential. who is taking the corner doesnt bring in enough money...
Where does the actual money the gangs win come from? Is straight from the betting agencies pockets? David Forrest, the UK economist who specializes in sports betting, tells us that fixed sports betting is a fabulous way to launder money. You take cash from drug or trafficking operations, you bet on fixed games, not only do u make a profit but dirty money comes back clean. He says some crime gangs are trying to buy soccer clubs just to launder money through them.
Was the Qatar bid for hosting the 2022 world cup involved in bribery of any kind? Sri, this AMA is on match-fixing. The FIFA decision to give the 2018 and 2022 World Cups to Russia and Qatar respectively is a whole separate (and vast) discussion.
Did your investigation have any overlap with Declan Hill's investigations in the past? Declan is a pioneer, kudos to him. Suggest everyone interested in this topic read his book "The Fix: Organized Crime and Soccer"
a comment: Kudos to you and your team for really doing some real investigative journalism. Too much TMZ-style or reactive news these days so it's refreshing to see some real shit. Second my question: I saw the amount of profit gained from this scheme was a seemingly paltry $11m. In 2012, $94m was bet on the Super Bowl alone. Is the $11m as truly insignificant as it appears? What percentage of the pie is legitimate vs illegitimate? You maybe are just looking at one Italian match-fixing investigation. Multiply that by investigations in 50 nations last year, add to it all the bribe money that is linked to organizing friendlies that can generate big TV revenue... the point about match-fixing is not illegal or legal betting. It is tainting all betting with a fix. European betting agencies pride themselves on their legality, but anyone can be undermined by a fix. In asia, illegal gambling dens thrive because gambling in an ingrained cultural habit that is going to occur even if govts ban it.
Does this only happen with football? are there stories of match fixing happening in the European basketball, volleyball, handball, water polo leagues? All sports can be vulnerable to match-fixing, especially if there is betting on them. add tennis, cricket, horse racing to that mix.
I don't really understand soccer but how and what makes a game suspicious? Huge amounts of late bets on an obscure game. In-game live betting in which lots of bettors put money on another goal and the referee orders a penalty for an unfathomable reason. Games in which all scoring is due to penalty kicks. Games in which scoring is so high that it looks more like baseball. Games in which many goals are disqualified for offsides. so many options i just cant list them all
Does anyone know if Domenico Cricito is still being investigated or if they've finished with him? Cricito, an Italian defender who plays for the St. Petersburg club Zenit, was cleared, not charged with any match-fixing. He has said that he's trying not to be angry but still is about how he was dropped from the Italian team playing in Euro 2012 due to allegations that turned out to be unproven.
How are investigations going in regard to serie a? i know the mafias in Italy have a lot of control over players and referees. Big break on Thursday (feb 21, day after this AMA). a top suspected fixer was arrested by Italian police, Admir Sulijic. he reportedly has links to singapore money man Dan Tan. --- Big break on Friday, Dan Tan being interviewed by Singapore police!!!
Is there a chance Chelsea has been involved with match fixing please say no? I'm such a cynic that I can't say 'No' about any team. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, that's a 'known unknown' -- we know there are some things we do not know. that applies to all teams, not just Chelsea.
Have there been any murders or serious crimes committed in the name of covering up max fixing? In Bulgaria, over a dozen soccer officials have been slain over the last decade. and the crime gangs there don't even pretend to make it look like an accident, they just gun people down in the street.
Due to the nature of your work, do you ever feel in danger? Our medical writer tells us that sitting at a computer for hours on end is the most deadly thing for reporters. if she's right, we are all doomed.
Which top leagues would you say are the least corrupt? Certainly the premier league, due to the players' huge salaries.
Why do FIFA or UEFA never step in to take action on the obviously corrupt English FA, more specifically, Referee's decisions going heavily in the way of a certain Alex Ferguson? There is plenty of evidence, but you just leave them to get away with it. Why? Gotta say, FIFA and UEFA are clearly not fans of the English FA and are certainly not favoring them in any way re refereeing decisions.
I like how this question is dodged. Glad to oblige.
Please tell me the Celtic v Barcelona game wasn't fixed! I have to be sure... Hey even amazing teams lose sometimes! Plus this doesnt match the typical M.O. of the most successful match-fixers. When great teams lose, it always raises more suspicions among bet monitoring companies than when bad teams lose (our reporters visited some secret betting monitoring sites). A convicted midfielder who talked to us about match-fixing says it's always better to simply have bad teams lose once again -- criminals just pre-determine HOW MUCH that team will lose by and play those odds.
Whoever figures that out gets a nobel peace prize. Sri don't mean to be flippant. You go for zero tolerance, you establish anti-match-fixing officials in every national league, you teach players and refs and soccer officials how to recognize approaches by fixers, you increase criminal penalities for fixing, you don't stop investigating serious allegations just because a referee has retired 'from the football family,' (FIFA) you protect whistleblowers better. Italian defender Simone Farina told police about being approached by a fellow player to fix, and that effectively ended his playing career and made him a pariah in italy...happily months and months later Aston Villa made him a 'community coach'
No question, but thanks for doing what you do. This kind of high quality investigative journalism is what the free press is all about. Very kind to hear. are we related? jk. hope you got a chance to read, watch or hear all the eight Dirty Game stories, three sidebars, online video, broadcast video, radio reports, etc.
What's amazing is how ESPN hasn't said a word about this yet. Because they'd rather show more Tim Tebow praying coverage, or Mark Sanchez picking his asshole coverage, or LeBron James changing shampoo types coverage, or Erin Andrews trimming her fingernails coverage. ESPN online did pick up the AP Dirty Game story... and they did a video piece after Europol cited 680 suspicious games. but on that video piece they got an Italian soccer commentator who thought this was being overblown...
Could you please investigate the NBA now pls. Hmm. I saw an NBA rep at the London conference on sports betting. the major difference, obviously, is the huge number of scores in basketball and low number of scores in soccer. 1-0 wins a soccer game, but you need what, 35-50 scores to win an NBA game? So many more scoring variables in the NBA and such high salaries. I would think college ball (no salaries) would be much much more vulnerable to spread fixing.
I am Sheila Norman-Culp, AP’s Assistant Editor for Europe, who led the AP's “Dirty Game” multiformat team that investigated match-fixing in football. FTFY. Ahh, you say football, i say tomato. Let's call a truce. Otherwise Americans in this chat will start talking about Alabama
Last updated: 2013-02-25 02:10 UTC
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