NBA Odds BettingData

https://twitter.com/DavidPurdum/status/1290741777482297346
I've been impressed by the Nets so far in the bubble. As undermanned as they are (no Durant, Irving, Dinwiddie, or Jordan in the bubble, and LeVert, Harris, and Allen missing this game), they managed to take down the Bucks with a roster of non-established guys and last-minute call-ups.
The Bucks rested Giannis and Middleton in the second half, but the Nets did not quit.

I'm doing a project for my statistics class on point spreads for past NBA playoffs and was wondering if anyone would have the spreads for the 2016 and 2017 playoffs. It would be greatly appreciated.

(Title) I don't have any point spreads for any of the NBA games. Is this happening for anyone else?

I'm looking for the last couple seasons, I've done some Google'ing and haven't been able to find anything. Moneyline data I've found but no spreads for individual games. I'm looking for every game from the regular season basically, and if there was anywhere that did the current season that would be even better, I can do this year manually but I'm not always home from work before the early games start, thanks.

Keep in mind that the "bad" team has to be composed of starters and not bench players. I guess it's also a given to disregard injuries and assume everyone is playing 100% healthy.

Am I understanding this right?
Donaghy and the NBA both allege that Donaghy did not fix games.
I just heard a snippet of an interview where Donaghy is saying that he merely used his knowledge of relationships between players/owners and refs to predict outcomes.
So the NBA and Donaghy are saying that he did not actually call fouls differently or do anything else to affect the point spread?
That's insane.
I was originally thinking they just meant he point shaved, but didnt affect the final outcomes or something.
Am I understanding this right?
This is just stupid. How did anyone even pretend to believe this shit?

Take a look!
http://sportsplusmath.com/nba-betting-model

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/most-valuable-nba-players-all-time-spread-betting-best?utm\_source=reddit&utm\_medium=social&utm\_campaign=tan

Take a look!
http://sportsplusmath.com/nba-betting-model

Three weeks later, several teams have been severely impacted, multiple games have been rescheduled and today we learned that players have contracted COVID-19 twice.
At what point does Silver stick to his words and do something beyond instituting a ban on hugging? This is only going to get worse until vaccines come into the picture.
Source

1)Bet contrarian: The NBA betting market is infested with recreational bettors. As we all know, the public tends to lose more than they win. So going against the majority of bettors is a winning strategy. For example, the Nets opened as 5.5 point favorites. They have been taking consistent money and are now a 7.5 pt favorite in most books. This seems to be an inflated line and if you jumped on Warriors +7.5, you have given yourself additional value.
2)Twitter is key: Having the best and most up to date information is key to making smart wagers. This is especially true in the NBA. Twitter is the best place to get live information on the status of players. If you follow the right people, you will be able to bet a good number before the sports book has time to move the line. This can be a huge advantage.
3)Stay away from parlays: The NBA is long, grueling season, so having a strict money management system in place will keep you alive throughout the ups and downs. The sportsbooks have a massive hold percentage on parlay bets and they will drain your bankroll! I know they are very tempting but you are much better off straight betting all the legs of your parlay.

So this year is the first year I’ve really been betting on sports. Started when sports came back after covid and have had a lot of fun with it. I did okay during the NBA bubble because I watch a lot of NBA and had a good handle on all the teams. I also feel like playoff games are the best games to bet because you can count on your team bringing it to every game no matter what side you’re on.
Then the NFL season started, and got WRECKED until I discovered Wong teasers on here - and had a pretty decent season after that. As the NFL season comes to a close and I start switching my attention to NBA, I’m wondering if there’s any proven betting methods that have worked for you in the past? I’ve been using teasers on the NBA too but it doesn’t seem like as good of a strategy as it is in the NFL.
So far this season I’ve been using 4pt teasers on 3 teams, mostly betting the underdog to give myself a 7-10 point cushion in each game. Haven’t been doing well at all and starting to wonder if teasers are worth playing in the NBA, and if there’s smarter bets out there.
Today I’m looking at this 4pt teaser. Feel free to let me know if this is a terrible bet, and if y’all have a strategy that works for you (ie only bet money line, no parlays, only team total, etc.) id love to hear it!
HOU -.5 CLE +10 NOP +5

I'm taking OKC and you're giving me 11 ½ points (the current spread in Vegas).
I'll represent Engineers Without Borders.

from ESPN http://espn.go.com/
via IFTTT

Good evening folks, I’m interested in creating a daily pool featuring ATS picks instead of a traditional pick a team to win the game.
Right now I’m gaining interest from others to do this so I’m trying to get the word out for interest.
Essentially each day the slate of games will be no more than 20, some days might be 12-15 depending on the slates for both leagues. The slate selection will be made available by 11 am or 12 pm eastern time or 10/11 am before early tip off games.
Rules are simple - 1 entry per person for the night - entry fee will be 10/20$ (depending on what every one prefers. - the selections and entry fee are due by 30 minutes before the start time of the slate - the winner will be the one to select the most point spread winners (pushes will count as a 0.5 point where winners will be a full point. - multiple winners will split the prize pool for that slate
Feel free to ask questions or share your interest in this

Hello fellow basketball fans and those of you who claim to be basketball fans. I have decided to do a project with the intent of finding empirical evidence to determine the degree in which tanking (attaining lottery picks) leads to success (reaching the NBA finals). If this seems extremely extra and motivated, that’s because it is. I am sick and tired of seeing spoiled/know-it-all fans of well-run organizations (this is pointed) whine about how they’d rather lose to get a high draft pick as opposed to win and attempt to maintain a culture of competence and consistency. Because I am petty I have put together this project and I will let the data do the talking because I am not even sure I can directly quantify what it is exactly what I am measuring, however, I will put a conclusion at the end to summarize my findings and create some sort of logical roadmap to the best of my abilities.
Before we get going I need to mention that I originally intended to measure the past 20 finals but I ended up doing the past 21 because I forgot that ‘00’ counts as a year when I started this and I only realized that was the case when I was working on the ‘Nerd Section’ so it is what it is.
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For this section of the project I have done the following research:

• Found the finals match-ups of the past 21 years and looked to see if either of those teams had been in the lottery 5 or fewer years prior to their finals appearance
• Listed the lottery picks that were healthy contributors in the finals for the respective teams over the past two decades (along with detailing how they got on their team in certain cases)

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L5Y = Was the team in the lottery 5 or fewer years prior to their finals appearance?
Bolded name = Indicates this player was drafted in the lottery by the finals team that their name is listed with
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Part 1: NBA Finals Match-ups Over the Past 21 Years
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2000: Lakers v. Pacers = Lakers W (4-2)
Lakers Lottery Picks: Shaq (1st by the Magic in 1992), Kobe (13th by Charlotte in 1996), Glen Rice (4th by Miami in 1989), and Ron Harper (8th by Cleveland in 1986)
Pacers Lottery Picks: Reggie Miller (11th in 1987 by Pacers), Jalen Rose (13th in 1994 by Denver), Dale Davis (13th 1991 by Pacers), and Rik Smits (2nd overall in 1988 by Pacers)
Lakers L5Y = Yes* (traded up to get Kobe at 13 in the 1996 draft but their record in ‘95 was 53-29)
Pacers L5Y = Yes (‘96 & ‘97 but only their 12th overall pick in ‘97 - Austin Croshere - came off then bench and played in these finals)
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2001: Lakers v. 76ers = Lakers W (4-1)
Lakers Lottery Picks: Shaq, Kobe, Horace Grant (10th by the Bulls in 1987), and I feel like I have to say Robert Horry (11th by Houston in 1992) because he played about as many minutes off the bench as Grant did starting
76ers Lottery Picks: Allen Iverson (1st in 1996 by 76ers), Dikembe Mutumbo (4th by Denver in 1991), and Tyrone Hill (11th in 1990 by Golden State)
Lakers L5Y = Yes* (see last finals)
76ers L5Y = Yes (‘96 they got Iverson 1st overall / however their ‘97 and ‘98 draft picks - Keith Van Horne - who they traded for Tim Thomas that same draft - and Larry Hughes were not on the roster for these finals)
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2002: Lakers v. Nets = Lakers W (4-0)
Lakers Lottery Picks: Shaq, Kobe, Horry
Nets Lottery Picks: Jason Kidd (2nd by Dallas in 1994), Kenyon Martin (1st by Nets in 2000), Keith Van Horne (2nd by 76ers in 1997 - traded to NJ immediately), and Kerry Kittles (8th by the Nets in 1996)
Lakers L5Y = No
Nets L5Y = Yes (‘97 they swapped their pick for Van Horne as part of a trade / ‘00 they drafted Kenyon Martin / ‘01 they drafted Eddie Griffin but he wasn’t on the roster for these finals - he was a part of a deal to get Richard Jefferson in that draft but Jefferson was very young at this point and came off the bench in the finals)
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2003: Spurs v. Nets = Spurs W (4-2)
Spurs Lottery Picks: Tim Duncan (1st by San Antonio in 1997) and David Robinson (1st overall by San Antonio in 1987)
Nets Lottery Picks: Jason Kidd, Kenyon Martin, Kerry Kittles, and Richard Jefferson (13th by Houston - immediately traded to the Nets and aforementioned Eddie Griffin was a part of that package - in 2001)
Spurs L5Y = No
Nets L5Y = Yes (see details on their lottery picks in ‘00 and ‘01 above)
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2004: Lakers v. Pistons = Pistons W (4-1)
Pistons Lottery Picks: Rip Hamilton (7th by Washington in 1999), Chauncey Billups (3rd by Boston in 1997), and Rasheed Wallace (4th by Washington in 1995)
Lakers Lottery Picks: Shaq, Kobe, Karl ‘Allegations’ Malone (13th in 1985 by Utah), and Gary Payton (2nd in 1990 by the Supersonics)
Pistons L5Y = Yes (‘00 they selected Mateen Cleaves 14th / ‘01 they selected Rodney White / in ‘03 they selected Darko / worth noting that Darko barely touched the court in these finals and the other two were not on the roster)
Lakers L5Y = No
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2005: Spurs v. Pistons = Spurs W (4-3)
Spurs Lottery Picks: Tim Duncan and another ‘Horry plays as much as a starter but he comes off the bench’ series
Pistons Lottery Picks: Billups, Hamilton, and Wallace
Spurs L5Y = No
Pistons L5Y = Yes (see details in previous finals matchup)
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2006: Mavericks v. Heat = Heat W (4-2)
Mavs Lottery Picks: Dirk (9th by Milwaukee in 1998 - traded immediately to Dallas), Jason Terry (10th by Atlanta in 1999), Jerry Stackhouse (3rd by the 76ers in 1995)*, and Erick Dampier (10th by the Pacers in 1996)*
Heat Lottery Picks: Dwayne Wade (5th by Miami in ‘03), Antoine Walker (6th by Boston in 1996), Shaq, and Jason Williams (7th by the Kings in 1998)
Mavs L5Y = No
Heat L5Y = Yes (‘02 they selected Caron Butler who wasn’t even on the finals roster / ‘03 they drafted Flash 5th overall and I need not qualify his impact in a mere sentence)
*Both Jerry and Erick played way more than another lottery pick by the name of Desagana Diop so I felt they were both far more qualified for the list than ‘Double D’
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2007: Spurs v. Cavs = Spurs W (4-0)
Spurs Lottery Picks: Tim Duncan and the inevitable Robert Horry (not as many minutes as previous finals but still a good chunk)
Cavs Lottery Picks: LeBron (1st by Cleveland in ‘03), Drew Gooden (4th by Memphis in 2002), and Larry Hughes (8th by 76ers in 1998)
Spurs L5Y = No
Cavs L5Y = Yes (‘02 they drafted Dajuan Wagner 6th and he wasn’t on this finals roster / ‘03 LeBron / ‘04 Luke Jackson at 10th - also not on this finals roster)
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2008: Lakers v. Celtics = Celtics W (4-2)
Lakers Lottery Picks: Kobe, Pau Gasol (3rd by Atlanta - immediately traded to Memphis - in 2001), Lamar Odom (4th by the Clippers in 1999), and Vladimir Radmanović (12th by the Supersonics in 2001)
Celtics Lottery Picks: Ray Allen (drafted 5th by Milwaukee in 1996), KG (drafted 5th by the T-wolves in 1995), and Paul Pierce (drafted 10th by the Celtics in 1998)
Lakers L5Y = Yes (2005 they drafted Andrew Bynum 10th overall but he was not on this finals roster)
Celtics L5Y = Yes (2004 they drafted Al Jefferson and in ‘06 they drafted Randy Foye - neither were on this finals roster / took they legendary Jeff Green in 2005 and he also wasn’t on the team)
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2009: Magic v. Lakers = Laker W (4-1)
Magic Lottery Picks: Dwight Howard (1st overall in 2004 by the Magic) and Mickaël Piétrus (11th by Golden State in ‘03)
Lakers Lottery Picks: Kobe, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and **Andrew Bynum (**was on this roster but he was a bench guy)
Magic L5Y = Yes (Howard in 2004 / they took Fran Vázquez 11th in 2005 - never played in the NBA - and JJ Reddick 11th in 2006 - JJ was a bench lad)
Lakers L5Y = Yes (see details in previously listed finals above)
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2010: Lakers v. Celtics = Lakers W (4-3)
Lakers Lottery Picks: Kobe, Paul Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom (not as big of a contributor as he was last time)
Celtics Lottery Picks: Paul Pierce, KG, and Ray Allen
Lakers L5Y = Yes (Andrew Bynum)
Celtics L5Y = Yes (see details listed in 2008 matchup)
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2011: Mavs v. Heat = Mavs W (4-2)
Mavs Lottery Picks: Dirk, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion (9th by Phoenix in 1999), Tyson Chandler (2nd by the Clippers - traded to the Bulls immediately - in 2001), and Jason Terry (played considerable minutes off the bench)
Heat Lottery Picks: LeBron, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh (4th by the Raptors in 2003), and a dash of Mike Bibby (2nd by Vancouver in 1998)
Mavs L5Y = No
Heat L5Y = Yes (2008 they took Michael Beasley 2nd overall but he was not on this finals roster)
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2012: Thunder v. Heat = Heat W (4-1)
Thunder Lottery Picks: KD (2nd by the Supersonics in 2007), Russ (4th in 2008 by the Thunder), Thabo Sefolosha (13th by the 76ers in 2006), and a few appearances off the bench some guy named James Harden (3rd by the Thunder in 2009)
Heat Lottery Picks: LeBron, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and Shane Battier (6th by Memphis in 2001)
Thunder L5Y = Yes (in the three drafts from 2007-2009 they drafted KD 2nd, Russ 4th, and Harden 3rd in respective years)
Heat L5Y = Yes (see details in previously listed finals above)
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2013: Spurs v. Heat = Heat W (4-3)
Spurs Lottery Picks: Tim Duncan
Heat Lottery Picks: LeBron, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and Ray Allen (came off the bench but arguably may have hit an important shot or two)
Spurs L5Y = No
Heat L5Y = Yes (see details listed in previous finals above)
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2014: Spurs v. Heat = Spurs W (4-1)
Spurs Lottery Picks: Tim Duncan
Heat Lottery Picks: LeBron, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and Ray Allen
Spurs L5Y: No
Heat L5Y: No
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2015: Warriors v. Cavs = Warriors W (4-2)
Warriors Lottery Picks: Wardell Curry II (7th by Golden State in 2009), Harrison Barnes (7th by Golden State in 2012), Klay (11th by Golden State in 2011), Andrew Bogut (1st by Milwaukee in 2005), and considerable minutes from Igoudala (9th by 76ers in 2004)
Cavs Lottery Picks: LeBron\, *Tristan Thompson** (4th in 2011 by the Cavs), Kyrie (1st by the Cavs in 2011 - went out in game 1)
Warriors L5Y = Yes (2010 they took Ekpe Odoh - wasn’t on this finals roster / 2011 they got Klay 11th and in 2012 they got Harrison Barnes 7th)
Cavs L5Y = Yes (2001 they drafted Kyrie 1st and Thompson 4th / 2012 they drafted Dion Waiters - wasn’t on this finals roster / 2013 they took Anthony Bennet 1st overall - need I say more / 2014 they drafted Andrew Wiggins 1st overall and he was shipped off with Bennet when the Cavs decided to rob Minnesota blind)
*****came back as a free agent
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2016: Warriors v. Cavs = Cavs W (4-3)
Warriors Lottery Picks: Steph, Klay, Harrison Barnes, Iggy, and less of a role for Andrew Bogut
Cavs Lottery Picks: LeBron\, *Kyrie, **Tristan Thompson, and Kevin Love (5th by Memphis in 2008 - immediately traded to the T-wolves)
Warriors L5Y = Yes (see details in previously listed finals above)
Cavs L5Y = Yes (see details in previously listed finals above)
*****came back as a free agent
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2017: Warriors v. Cavs = Warriors W (4-1)
Warriors Lottery Picks: KD, Steph, Klay, and Iggy
Cavs Lottery Picks: LeBron\, *Kyrie, **Tristan Thompson, Kevin Love, and an elderly Richard Jefferson
Warriors L5Y = Yes (see details in previously listed finals above)
Cavs L5Y = Yes (see details in previously listed finals above)
*****came back as a free agent
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2018: Warriors v. Cavs = Warriors W (4-0)
Warriors Lottery Picks: Steph, Klay, and KD
Cavs Lottery Picks: LeBron\, *Tristan Thompson**, Kevin Love, and noticeable minutes from Jeff Green
Warriors L5Y = No
Cavs L5Y = Yes (see details in previously listed finals above)
*****came back as a free agent
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2019: Warriors v. Raptors = Raptors W (4-2)
Warriors Lottery Picks: Steph, Klay (went out in game 5), and Iggy
Raptors Lottery Picks:
Warriors L5Y = No
Raptors L5Y = Yes (2016 they took Jakob Poeltl 9th - later traded as part of a package with the beloved Demar Derozan for Mr. Leonard)
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2020: Lakers v. Heat = Lakers W (4-2)
Lakers Lottery Picks: LeBron James, Anthony Davis (1st by New Orleans in 2012), Kentavious Caldewell-Pope (8th by the Pistons in 2013), along with minutes sprinkled from former lottery picks Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris (13th by Phoenix in 2011)
Heat Lottery Picks: Bam Adebayo (14th overall in 2017) and Tyler Herro (13th overall in 2019)
Lakers L5Y = Yes (2015 they took D’Angelo Russel 2nd overall - wasn’t on this finals roster / 2016 they took Brandon Ingram 2nd overall, 2017 they took Lonzo Ball 2nd overall, and in 2019 they ‘drafted’ De’Andre Hunter 4th overall- they were all a part of a trade package to acquire Anothony Davis)
Heat L5Y = Yes (In 2015 they took Justise Winslow 10th overall - he wasn’t on this finals roster / Bam 14th in 2017 and Herro 13th in 2019)
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TLDR Tidbits:
​

• Over the past 21 finals there was ONE team that won a championship WITHOUT (thank you u/lalo1398 for the correction) having a single lottery pick on their finals roster and that was the 2019 Toronto Raptors (imagine if he had stayed >:( - Mr. Leonard I miss you)

​

• Top 3 Champions Past 21 Seasons: Lakers (6) - Spurs (4) - Warriors/Heat (3)

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• Top 3 Finalists Past 21 Seasons: Lakers (8 / 6-2) - Heat (6 / 3-3) - Warriors (5 / 3-2) & Spurs (5 / 4-1)

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• L5Y Teams That Appeared in The Finals: 30 of the past 42 finalists (~71%) were in the lottery 5 or fewer years prior to appearing in the NBA finals

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• L5Y Teams That Won The Finals: 14 of the past 21 (two thirds - 2/3) NBA champions were in the lottery 5 or fewer years prior to winning the championship

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• Top 3 (picks wise) Most Lottery Appearances: Magic, T-wolves, and Clippers (18 picks each / 1 combined finals appearance) - 76ers, Hornets, Bucks, and Kings (17 picks each / 1 combined finals appearance) - Suns, Warriors, and Cavs (16 picks / 10 combined finals appearances - 4 wins)

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• Over the past 25 years 10 teams had a combined 170 lottery picks and managed to reach a combined 12 NBA finals (10 of which can be accounted for by two teams - Warriors and Cavs) while winning a total of 4 championships

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• Top 3 (picks wise) Least Lottery Appearances: Spurs (1 pick / 5 finals appearances) - Lakers (6 picks / 8 finals appearances) - Heat (7 picks / 6 finals appearances)

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• Over the past 25 years 3 teams had a combined 14 lottery picks and managed to reach a combined 19 NBA finals while winning a total of 13 championships.

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• Teams to win without having homegrown lottery picks as healthy contributors on their finals roster over the last 21 NBA finals: 2004 Pistons, 2019 Raptors, and 2020 Lakers

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• Homegrown Finalists and Their Records: Kobe (7 / 5-2) - Tim Duncan (5 / 4-1) - Dwyane Wade, Stephen Curry, Klay (5 / 3-2) - LeBron* (5 / 1-4) - Tristan Thompson (4 / 1-3) - Kyrie (3 / 1-2) - Andrew Bynum (2-0) - Dirk, Paul Pierce, and Harrison Barnes (2 / 1-1) - Jason Kidd, Kenyon Martin and Kerry Kittles, (2 / 0-2) - David Robinson (1 / 1-0) - Reggie Miller, Rik Smits, Dale Davis, Allen Iverson, Keith Van Horne, Richard Jefferson, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, KD*, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Dwight Howard*, (1 / 0-1)

*has played in one or more finals for a team different from the one that drafted them
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Nerd Section:
Getting ‘The Guy’:

• Over the past 21 seasons a total of 29 different players that have been drafted in the lottery by an NBA team had at least one finals appearance with that team. For the purpose of this project I tracked the draft lottery starting from 1995 onwards, so to calculate the odds of any given team landing one of these players I did - 25 (number of drafts from ‘95-’19) multiplied by 15 (the number of players that are in the lottery) and divided 29 (the number of players with at least one finals appearance) by that number (375) and multiplied it by 100 to give me the percentage chance of landing one of these players and it came out to > ~8%.

Equation > 25 x 15 = 375 / 29 ÷ 375 = 0.077 / 0.077 x 100 = roughly 8%
​

• Now, since I did not find every single transaction regarding every finals team and their lottery picks I cannot say that 8% number is of huge significance because as we know lottery picks/players can be pretty valuable assets in trades and such so measuring the value of a lottery pick goes well beyond just figuring out which lottery pick happened to make a finals appearance with the team that drafted them.

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• However, I do believe that number does provide decent value in a different context as it clearly speaks to how rare it is for a team to be able to find their ‘guy’ in the lottery and have them take the franchise to the promised land (very far from a guarantee). I am aware that most (if not all) of the lottery picks from 2016 onwards have not had ample time to prove themselves but even if you were to remove them from the sample size it would make the total number of players drafted 315 and take the number of different lottery players to appear in a finals with their team down to 27. By repeating the same process but replacing the numbers (315 instead of 375 and 27 instead of 29) the percentage only changes (goes up) by 0.8% points which reaffirms the idea that finding ‘the guy’ is far from easy.

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• With that being said, that’s 8% of making the finals, not even winning. Of those 29 players only 13 (Kobe, Andrew Bynum, Tim Duncan, David Robinson, Paul Pierce, Dirk, Dwayne Wade, Steph, Klay, Harrison Barnes, Kyrie, Tristan Thompson, and LeBron after he returned to Cleveland) won at least one or more championships for their franchise and if you were to account for the fact that certain guys played for the same team then that number gets down to 7* (this means that of the past 21 finals winners only 7 had some combination of their own lottery picks starting for them). For the sake of simplicity I will keep the number at 13 and divide it by 375 (13 out of 375 players drafted in the lottery won one or more championships for the franchise they were drafted to) which comes out to ~3.5%.

*may not have been explained clearly enough but the number 7 represents the total number of teams that had their lottery pick(s) win at least one or more championships with them - there were 13 different players selected with 13 different lottery picks but those 13 picks were spread across just 7 different teams
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The Indisputable Value of ‘The Guy’

• Going off that number I feel like it is important to note that although only ~3.5% of players drafted in the lottery over the past 25 seasons have won a finals for the franchise they were drafted to, 18 of the past 21 finals winners have featured one of these such players on the team, which means a whopping ~86% of finals winners over the past 21 seasons had one of these homegrown lottery talents on their team. To me this is arguably the most important statistic I’ve found so far while doing the research for this project because that’s pretty clearly where the genesis of the ‘pro-tanking’ argument comes from.

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• As we know, there are a ton of different variables that go into any given team winning an NBA championship and (as has been shown time and time again) having talent is not the end all be all. However, the fact that ~86% of finals winners had a homegrown lottery talent on their roster is fairly significant and if we change the criteria from finals winner to finals participant than the percentage of teams over the past 21 seasons that have participated in at least one or more finals with a homegrown talent is ~90% (38 of the 42 teams to appear in the last 21 NBA finals had one of these players - the Pistons appeared twice without one, along with the Raptors and Lakers each appearing in one respectively)

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Conclusion:
Look, do I think this data tells the full story? HEAVENS NO. But does it tell A story? Yes it does. At the end of the day, sports are hard. Building a winner is hard. Building a SUSTAINED winner is even harder. I believe this project has shown just how truly difficult it is to win the NBA draft lottery and end up with a player capable of helping your team make their way to the promised land. Having a lottery pick pan out the way they’re projected to is far from a guarantee and the odds that your team is going to land that player in the ~3.5% is obviously incredibly low. With that being said, I get it. I understand those of you that think losing is better than winning in certain instances because you feel as if it gives your team a chance at landing one of these guys but I hope now you can at least see how really truly ridiculously fortunate you have to be to end up with one of these dudes. The fact that a combination of 10 different teams with a combined 170 picks over the past 25 years managed to win 1/3 of the championships that 3 teams who had almost as many championships as they had lottery picks over the exact same span of time should say something to you.
Are the Lakers, Spurs, and Heat lucky? Yes, you need to be lucky to be good. However, the Lakers traded for Kobe at the back end of the lottery, the Spurs only needed one lottery pick total over the past 25 seasons to be successful, and Miami… ok Miami was fortunate to land LeBron and Bosh in the same offseason (to be fair they did win one with Wade prior to this) but the reason they were able to sign LeBron and Bosh should not be understated. All three of these teams have proven to maintain at least three things for an extended period of time; solid coaching, solid front office, and a competitive (winning) environment. So at this point in time, if your team is operating on all three of these levels with an average to above average level of competence you should appreciate it and understand that the chips will eventually fall in your favor if they continue to do so. I don’t have time to talk about ‘treadmill teams’ but I can assure you in virtually every single case they are not operating effectively on at least one of the levels I described.
As I conclude my research on this topic I’d like to summarize this it in one message that a good chunk of you likely grasped well before ever seeing this project. When it comes to the lottery, the success rates of teams spanning over the past quarter century clearly show that your team probably won’t win the big money just because they have a ticket in their hand… but boy can it be fun when that thang cashes out. So with all that being said - Raptors fans and those in similar situations - if you take a look around, I think you’ll be able to see that we’re going to be alright.
Thank you for reading.
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Source: https://www.basketball-reference.com
Corrections:
I have been rightly corrected and now know the lottery is only the first 14 teams and not the first 15 / with that being said I know that doesn't make a huge difference in a data set this large because I'd be removing only ~6% of the total picks made over the past 25 years (based off of my original criteria for what a 'lottery team' was) and that doesn't change the main message of this project
I also had to remove Mr. Leonard’s name where it was previously listed in certain instances due to the correction (twice with the Spurs and once with the Raptors)
Jason Kidd stans I have repented and corrected thank you for noticing