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The Alternate Universe Ending Theory: A complete log of all the evidence

The Alternate Universe Ending Theory: A complete log of all the evidence
(This is long, but I promise it's worth your time. If I had to place a $500 bet on any AOT ending, I'm going all in on this. Thanks for reading!)
Having been on my university break for quite some time now, I have spent my time arduously attempting to figure out the finale of Attack on Titan. I have created document after document, chatted with other fans, scoured forums; many people have devised some strong theories. However, there is one manga panel that is rarely mentioned and it is one I cannot move past: 'Goth' Mikasa and 'Nerd' Armin (from the Attack on School Castes) appearing in Chapter 120 of the main story.

Here is the panel I am referring to. This shows Eren's PAST memories. Notice the shard in the very top left corner?
When we zoom in, we can see that this is 'Goth' Mikasa and 'Nerd' Armin. Take note of Mikasa's hairstyle and Armin's glasses...

See Mikasa's hairstyle and Armin's glasses?
For those who are unaware, the 'Attack on School Castes' is an alternate universe where the characters from Attack on Titan live a simple, peaceful life and attend high school. They are included alongside the official manga as 'previews,' and are published at the end of each volume, starting with Volume 21.
Though there are clear comedic purposes to these previews, there are important events that take place in this alternate universe. I will now summarise these quickly, as they serve as the foundation for this theory:
  1. In this alternate universe, Eren is seen as a 'nobody,' and is very bored with his life. 'Goth' Mikasa and 'Nerd' Armin befriend Eren because he 'protected' them.
  2. One day, Eren has a dream that he was fighting a zombie apocalypse at his high school. He woke up from this dream crying.
  3. After this dream, Eren continually mentions that his life is boring; he wishes that his dream was real, just so his life would be more interesting. He wishes to become a 'threat to all of humanity' just so 'something interesting would happen.' (I'll post this panel below, as I believe it is important).
  4. Then Ymir Fritz is on the scene, and she is worshipped as a God. Eren is the only one who can see her.

Eren in the Attack on School Castes wishes to become a 'threat to all of humanity' because he is tired of a life where 'nothing happens.'
Many have brushed off the memory shard of Goth Mikasa and Nerd Armin, stating instead that it's most probably an easter egg. I thought that too, until I stumbled across this interview with Isayama:

Reporter: What's your favourite fake preview?
Isayama: Definitely the High School Caste AU. Even though there are only two pages each time, I spend about five pages worth of time and energy to complete them.
Reporter: What’s the appeal of that AU?
Isayama: If possible, I want to draw something that is linked to the original manga’s universe. That’s how I’m approaching it now.

The interview was conducted on July 20th, 2019. Chapter 120, where Goth Mikasa and Nerd Armin appeared in the past memory shards, was published on August 9th, 2019 - only a few weeks later. This suggests to us that this memory shard was no mere easter egg - but may potentially open up the possibility of alternate universes in Attack on Titian.

This brings me to the next piece of the puzzle: One of Isayama's primary sources of inspiration for Attack on Titan is Muv Luv Alternative. In fact, he even stated that the ending was similarly inspired by Muv Luv. Here's the kicker: The Muv Luv franchise is based around alternate universes.
So, to investigate further, I watched various Muv Luv play-throughs and scoured their wiki. I discovered that the similarities between Muv Luv and AOT are striking, for example:
  • Both stories involve mindless giants; in AOT these are Titans, in Muv Luv these are BETAs (which are aliens).
  • Both stories involve 3D manoeuvring gear.
  • Both stories have similar arcs.
  • In Muv-Luv, there are certain characters who obtained powers as a byproduct of science mishap, and though they are very powerful, they suffer headaches as a result of this; parallels with Mikasa and the Ackerman powers.
However, the most crazy similarity of all is the beginning of Muv Luv Alternative and AOT; both main characters wake up from a dream crying:

In Muv Luv, the main character wakes up from a dream crying. This was in reference to waking up from an alternate universe.

In Chapter 1 of AOT, Eren wakes up in a similar way; having experienced the 'longest dream' and also crying.

Interestingly, Eren had the exact same experience in the Attack on School Castes previews.
So, knowing all of this, I devised a theory, linking AOT, the Attack on School Castes and Muv Luv:
  • The memory shard of Goth Mikasa and Nerd Armin was in the past. This means Eren was living in the Attack on School Castes alternate universe first.
  • In the Attack on School Castes alternate universe, Eren was tired of his boring life and wanted 'something to happen.' He wanted to destroy humanity. This was his wish.
  • In the Attack on School Castes, he made a deal with Ymir for this to come true.
  • Everything we have seen from the moment Eren woke up in Chapter 1 of the AOT main manga is a result of Eren's wish being fulfilled. This parallels the plot of Muv Luv, the game we know Isayama took great inspiration from.
I then re-read the manga and re-watched the anime in an attempt to either prove/disprove this theory. My verdict is: it made more sense. Way more sense. I will attempt to explain the plot of AOT (simplified) through this new lens, and this forms the basis of my evidence for this theory:

  1. In the beginning of AOT, Eren expressed the same boredom and desire for something to happen.
  2. Then something did happen; the titans. Humanity was being destroyed, just as Eren in the previous High school Universe wished for.
  3. Just as in Muv Luv, Eren's memories of a past, alternate universe would have been wiped (which as a side note, would parallel nicely with the implied memory wiping that the 145th King conducted on Eldians). Because of this, Eren believes he is fighting titans, saving humanity, and is none the wiser.
  4. Until, however, he kisses Historia's hand. We still don't know all of what Eren saw. However, if this theory is correct, then I am willing to bet he saw that all of this destruction was his wish from the start in a past alternate universe. (And I mean, his face doesn't look too happy).
  5. This explains the panel where Eren is talking to Ramzi perfectly. Eren expresses regret over what is to come (ie. The Rumbling) with the words 'I wished for it. I wanted to wipe it all way.' Wished = past tense. Wanted = past tense.
  6. It also explains this scene where Eren reflects on kissing Historia's hand retroactively. He says 'even if this was set in stone from the start,' and 'even if this is what I wanted.' Again; wanted = past tense.
  7. It similarly explains the scene with Hange, where Eren seemingly begs them for 'another way.' However, as mentioned before, there is no other way. This was set in stone from the start due to Eren's wish to destroy humanity. All he can do is to keep moving forward.
  8. Since kissing Historia's hand, Eren knows this is all his fault. This is why his attitude and demeanour changes drastically since that occasion. It's why he tries to push away his friends. This regret and shame is foreshadowed in the Attack on Castes panel, where Eren says (rather grimly) 'it's all because I wanted to destroy the world.'

So, if Muv Luv led me to discover these parallels, then can the plot of Muv Luv Alternative similarly predict the ending of Attack on Titan? (And let's recall, Isayama himself said the ending of AOT is inspired by Muv Luv).
In a nutshell, the ending of Muv Luv Alternative depicts the main character leaving the alternate universe of destruction for his 'previous world'. He loses all of his memories, and everyone will similarly forget him and what he did.
To translate to Attack on Titan:
  • Eren won't stay in the current universe of destruction (what we know as the current world of Attack on Titan).
  • Everyone will forget him and what he did, and he will travel (most probably) to the Attack on School Castes universe where he previously resided. Presumably, the other characters will 'travel' too.
  • In this universe, I believe there will be two options: Eren will 'wake up' as the same age he was in the Attack on School Castes previews, and the last chapter will also include a timeskip that shows Eren as an adult; OR, Eren will 'wake up' in this universe and time will have passed (Eren in Chapter 1 was 10, Eren in Chapter 139 will be 19/20; so 10 years will have passed). Eren depicted as an adult is an important detail (and this will be discussed further below).

The concept of the AOT characters leaving this universe for another has been heavily foreshadowed before (it's just that most of us didn't think to interpret it literally). As shown below (some examples of many):

Mention of a 'world we don't know about yet.'

This heavily aligns with the theory that Eren wished for this world of destruction, or 'pain and suffering,' yet another world exists.

This panel is excellent foreshadowing if correct; 'if only those kids could've lived normal lives.'

Here is further foreshadowing of the characters living 'long, happy lives.' Interestingly, though Eren's motivations have long been confusing - his desire for his friends to live 'long, happy lives' has always been made clear. If we also note what Hange said when talking to Levi about running away, she emphasised that even if they returned to Paradis, the 'Jeagirists control the land with the Spinal Fluid.' So, with only 3 chapters left, the only feasible way I can see the AOT characters living 'long, happy lives' is an alternate universe.

This is an image that was shown during the Season 3 ending scene. Many have suspected that these are the young Tybur children in a few years time. However, given the current fashion trends seen in Attack on Titan, these uniforms seen far too modern. So instead, could this foreshadow the Tybur children in the alternate universe (which we know is set in the 21st century?)

EDITED TO ADD: A user in the comment section also pointed out that in the Akatsuki no Requiem MV (which appears to foreshadow the ending of AOT), there is a lot of imagery of a character leaving one world for this city (seen above) in an elevator. Also, if you flip this image to the right side up, the character is actually travelling downwards to this city- parallels nicely with the previous image that says 'underneath this world full of pain and suffering exists another world where light cannot reach.'

However, probably the most striking evidence of all is what Eren says to Ymir in Paths, 'Lend me your strength, I will put an end to THIS world.' Grammatically speaking, usually one will say 'I will put an end to THE world,' or 'I will save THE world.' Eren saying he will put an end to THIS world, implies the existence of MORE THAN ONE WORLD.

Eren says 'I will put an end to THIS world' rather than I will put an end to THE world.
This is also similar to Eren's phrase 'because I was born into THIS world.' In fact, when Zeke asks Eren why he is betraying him in Paths and going ahead with the Rumbling, Eren just replies 'because I was born into THIS world.' That's an incredibly vague and weird justification for annihilating the planet - unless you put it into the context of this theory; that Eren is going ahead with the Rumbling because he has no other choice, THIS world of destruction was his wish from the start.

Again, born into THIS world, rather than born into THE world.

Incase you still weren't convinced, take a look at the Season 4 opening song. First thing to note, the cover art for this song is of a modern-day classroom. Further, the lyrics of this song seem to parallel perfectly to the occurrences in the previous Attack on School Castes universe, right as Eren made a deal with Ymir to destroy the world. See some of the notable lyrics below:
"Let's start a new life from the darkness"
"Destruction and regeneration. You are the real enemy."
"Time to leave school, stepping in others shadows. When I noticed, I was alone at dawn."
"It's okay to cry for now. I have to get ready for tomorrow. I have to do my homework and go to bed. My war."

Contrastingly, the Season 4 closing song appears to foreshadow the ending, whereby Eren and his friends will return back to their previous alternate universe, losing all memories and proof that they ever existed in the universe of destruction (what we see in Attack on Titan); see some of the notable lyrics below:
"Someone please disperse
The proof that I existed here
Even if my bones turned to sand and disappeared
I'm alive."

Finally, I want to point out two 'bonus' puzzle pieces.

  • The first puzzle piece is a key detail that many overlook: the story about the miner in Episode 25 of the anime. You can read Part 1 and Part 2 here.
To summarise this story that appeared in the anime intermission: There was a miner that originally dreamt of a better life and as such, wanted to dig his way into Wall Sina. He was an expert at digging, doing so for 20 years. One night, he finally attempted to dig to a better life; but no matter what he did, it was no use. On the brink of giving up, his friend instead insinuated he should accept and be happy with 'his lot in life.' It was then revealed that the miner suddenly disappeared without a trace, even the pit he had dug had disappeared. His friend also vanished, never to be seen again.
As a parallel, Eren Yeager is currently 19 years old. His birthday is March 30, which is directly before the release of the final chapter of Attack on Titan (April 9). Symbolically speaking, Eren will be 20 in the last chapter of the series. This correlates to the 20 years mentioned in the story of the miner; Eren has been trying, fighting and battling for 20 years, and though it is theorised that he caused this mess in the first place, he too is striving for a better life (as he often refers to 'that scenery.') That better life can be found in an alternate universe, which is why Eren and friends will similarly disappear without a trace (just like the miner and his friend); they will be finally free from the destruction that Eren wished for.

  • The second puzzle piece is that the Attack on Titan manga will end with Chapter 139.
This is rather strange, considering that almost all AOT volumes have included 4 chapters and concluded with an even-numbered chapter. Yes, this could simply be a coincidence or an over-sight. However, it's interesting that when looking at Numerology, the number 139 represents 'the end of a cycle; it is not a 'real' death, but just the end of one period, and therefore the beginning of another.' This perfectly aligns with Isayama's own words, as when he was asked about the ending of Attack on Titan, he simply replied 'it's just the beginning!'


Now I know what you may be thinking; 'what about the infamous final panel? How does that work with this theory?' This could go a number of ways, but I think a huge clue is the parallels between Grisha and Eren's love interests. I will break it down:
  • Grisha first married Dina, who is of royal blood.
  • They birthed a child, Zeke. This child of royal blood was born to be utilised as a weapon; arguably not 'free.'
  • Grisha, then on the brink of death, was given a second chance at life behind the walls. He then married Carla.
  • They birthed a child, Eren. This child wasn't raised to be a weapon, and appears to have an innate desire to achieve freedom (even if that restriction and destruction was implemented by him in the first place).

So, if this theory is correct, let's look at how this parallels with Eren:
  • Eren and Historia appear to be allied together at the moment (a whole separate host of evidence for this, but if I digress this theory will be too long). Notably, Historia is also of royal blood; parallels to Dina.
  • It is likely at this stage that Eren is the father of Historia's child (again, also has evidence but too lengthy for here). Unless the titan curse is broken in the next 3 chapters, or so as long as the people of Paradis are considered 'subjects of Ymir,' this child will not be born free (and the popular reincarnation theory similarly dictates this to be so); parallels to Zeke.
  • However, if Eren and the other AOT characters 'wake up' in the Attack on School Castes alternate universe, where presumably time has passed, it is likely that Eren will have a 'second chance,' similar to Grisha; however, this time with Mikasa. (And for further proof, this panel in the Attack on School Castes previews shows that Eren clearly has romantic feelings for Mikasa).
  • If Eren and Mikasa have a child together in this alternate universe (where again, presumably time has passed), this child will be truly free - as it was not born in THAT world of destruction that Eren wished for, and has now escaped from. This is what I believe the last panel will show, and this was eerily foreshadowed already (see below):

First, notice what Zeke says; 'no one will cast blame on you for forgetting everything about your first family to enjoy this happy life.' This would foreshadow the ending perfectly if this theory is true; that Eren has forgotten everything about his first family (Historia) due to the memory wipe, and now experiences a 'happy' life with Mikasa in the alternate universe. Also, notice how Grisha and baby Eren look eerily similar to the father and child in the final panel? However, Grisha does not have a beard here, whereas the man in the final panel clearly does. Instead, I believe the man in that final panel is Eren (with a beard), holding his and Mikasa's child.

To add further credence to the importance of Mikasa and Eren's relationship in the final chapter of Attack on Titan, I would like to highlight an important quote in Muv Luv, said by one of the main love interests:
You want to meet him again, don't you? Then you should say... 'See you Later. Not goodbye.'
The concept of saying 'See you later' rather than 'Goodbye' is a prominent theme in Muv Luv, and especially pertains to the travel across alternate universes.
Where else have we seen this before? Right at the beginning of AOT:

Just like the love interest in Muv Luv, Mikasa says 'see you later,' rather than 'goodbye,' hinting she and Eren will meet again.
Now, this next part is purely speculation, but I believe there could be more to Mikasa's character than we originally suspected:
  • We know that as of her father's side, Mikasa is an Ackerman. They are resistant to the powers of the Founding titan; including memory wiping.
  • Mikasa is also apart of the 'Oriental' bloodline (through her mother). They are also resistant to the powers of the Founding titan, and again, this includes memory wiping.
  • This means that despite being Eldian and able to enter the Paths, both sides of her bloodline are resistant to memory wipes. This puts Mikasa in a very unique position.
  • And, when you think about it, the plot point that some clans (such as the Ackerman's and the Oriental Clan) are resistant to the memory wipes has been rather fruitless and purposeless so far. It was not used to reveal any information on the outside world - so why else would Isayama include this detail?
  • We know that in Muv Luv, when characters exited an alternate universe, their memories were wiped. What if, when travelling from the previous (Attack on School Castes) universe to the AOT universe (what we see in Chapter 1), Mikasa's memories were not fully wiped?
  • This would explain this panel in Chapter 9 where Mikasa says Armin's abilities have saved them 'many times in the past,' and Armin is confused as to when this occurred.
  • Similarly, this panel of Mikasa saying 're-opening the same old wound... do I really have to start everything anew yet again?
  • What is most convincing are these panels in Chapter 6. Mikasa sees Eren is being choked, and she says 'I'd seen this scene before, over and over again.' She then follows this up in the next panel, talking about the 'cruelty of THIS world.' Again, saying THIS world, rather than THE world.
  • Most importantly is the phrase 'come back home,' of which Mikasa says to Eren multiple times throughout the manga. Instead of interpreting it literally, what if Mikasa is referring to 'home' as the previous alternate universe in which they came from?
  • In fact, in Mikasa's character song, there are multiple important lyrics that link to this theory and going 'back home' with Eren:
" When I woke up again, At that moment… I found you"
"You are my home to return to, no matter where you are."

  • In linking with this, the OST 'Name of Love' also potentially foreshadows this theory and Eren and Mikasa meeting again at the finale:
"Goodbye world. Our shadows, standing side by side, do not cross each other."
"somewhere in this world, if we can meet in the future, please dont forget... about me"

Though I feel pretty confident about other aspects of this theory, I am not 100% sure whether Mikasa has retained her memories or not. Irrespective of this, if this alternate universe theory proves to be true, then I still believe it is likely that the final chapter will include Mikasa and the scarf, and the phrase 'lets go home' when going back to the original alternate universe.

Now, answering some of the questions/complaints I can anticipate in the comments:
  • "A parallel universe is unlikely and comes out of no where."
Not necessarily true. The fact that Eren was able to change Grisha's memories without causing a paradox implies that multiple or alternative universes can indeed exist. Further, there have been various hints throughout the series already; such as the Paths and the ability to transcend time, as well as all the symbolism of rebirth and second chances (especially in the latest manga chapters).
  • "Eren and Ymir making a deal in the Attack on School Castes (previous/original universe) seems like a reach."
Well, have you considered the original painting of Ymir and the Devil, making some sort of deal? We know that Founder Ymir gained her titan powers from an unknown organic material when falling into the tree... so what else could these paintings be depicting, I wonder? And let's not forget who is currently seen as the Devil... (*cough Eren*).
Further, it's rather interesting; Ymir was the original 'Founding Titan,' meaning she had the ability to wipe all memories. If she was the one involved with Eren in the School Castes universe (where she is viewed as a 'God'), and partook in his deal, this could explain how the new universe (and subsequently wiped memories of the previous universe) came to be. Further, I believe that in Norse Mythology, 'Ymir' was symbolic of the creation of Earth; this could potentially be excellent symbolism of the role Ymir Fritz plays in the creation/manipulation of the two universes I am theorising about.
Additionally, and this might be the most concrete proof of all; if we go back to the Chapter 120 manga panel with the memory shards of Eren's past (the one with Goth Mikasa and Nerd Armin), down the bottom left is Ymir Fritz. Eren hadn't met her yet, so why was she in Eren's past memories at this stage? Unless, of course, they'd already met in a previous alternate universe to make the aforementioned 'deal.'

Ymir Fritz in the Chp 120 memory shard panel; depicting Eren's 'past' memories.
As a final note; the first Chapter of AOT when Eren wakes up from his 'dream' is titled, 'To you, 2000 years from now,' and then the Chapter when Eren finally reunites with Ymir Fritz is titled 'From you, 2000 years ago.' What does Eren say in the latter chapter? It ends now.
"Okay, but why The Rumbling? It doesn't seem like Ymir or Eren want this."
This is the one thing that Isayama would be yet to explain, and is a probable reason as to why Eren and Ymir's true motivations and points of view have been shrouded in mystery. However, if we theorise that Eren made a deal with Ymir in the past alternate universe to 'destroy humanity,' then Eren must fulfil this deal and either complete that mission, or be killed in the process. This was hinted already during the scene where Eren Kurger says to Grisha 'if you want to save Armin and Mikasa, then you need to fulfil your mission.' If we know that attack titan inheritors are connected- then perhaps was this meant for Eren? Is this why he 'keeps moving forward?'
  • "But I've seen X, Y, Z theory and it sounds much more plausible."
The beauty of this theory is that there will be essentially two endings; a conclusion to the universe we see in Attack on Titan (most likely Chapter 137 and 138), and then a conclusion to the entire story (Chapter 139), of which I predict will be Eren and co. travelling back to their previous universe and finally being 'free.' So, your favourite theory within the AOT universe could still happen.
  • "There's only a few chapters left, I doubt this will happen."
Actually, the fact that there are only a few chapters left strengthens this theory. Just as in Muv Luv, and just as in that story of the miner digging under the wall - the characters suddenly vanish. 3 chapters is not a lot of space to tie up every last loose end, but this isn't needed if Eren and his friends suddenly travel to their previous universe.
Also, consider again the picture of the Tybur children in the school uniform. They are a little older in that photo (maybe 5-7 years or so older). If the last panel is of Eren holding Historia's baby (with no alternate universes), then you'd also need to have a time skip to show these Tybur children... that doesn't work out. However, if there is an alternate universe where time has passed... it does.
  • "Isayama said the story doesn't have a happy ending, this is a happy ending!"
Isayama actually said he wanted to betray the reader. I also think this ending will shock a lot of people, and potentially be quite controversial. Interestingly, Isayama included a little text bubble in the Attack on School Castes that said, with no real context, "I do feel ashamed about the reveal being a dream." (See below).

Does this hint that Eren in the final chapters will wake up in the previous universe, memories lost - just like Chapter 1? Is this the big 'reveal' that Isayama is 'ashamed' of?
  • "From a narrative point of view, this ending sucks. It's cliche and I've seen it done before."
First and foremost, I don't think Isayama could ever create an ending where everyone is happy (I mean, just look at the divide in the community between Jeagerist and Alliance supporters). However, I do think he could create an ending that no one would expect - and this theory is exactly that. Yes, there are plenty of isekai animes, or stories involving alternative universes - but it seems that most of these characters travel in time/space for benevolent reasons. I personally haven't seen a story where a character travels to an alternate universe purely to destroy it, just because he was 'bored' and 'wanted something to happen.' It would also mean that for over a decade, Eren was the true villain of the story, and we were none the wiser. What better way to betray your readers than that?

TL;DR: Goth Mikasa and Nerd Armin from the 'Attack on School Castes' appear in a memory fragment of the AOT main story (Chapter 120). Isayama also recently confirmed that these School Caste alternate universe previews would be linked to the main story. I believed that this could prove the existence of alternate worlds in Attack on Titan, and thus began my research. I discovered that Isayama drew great inspiration from a game called Muv Luv Alternative; a story about alternate universes, and similarly found significant parallels between the two. I then devised a theory that Eren existed FIRST in the Attack on School Castes universe and due to his boring life, wished to destroy the world. He made a deal with Ymir to do so, and hence Chapter 1 of AOT is the result of this wish being fulfilled. As in Muv Luv, Eren's memories of a previous world are wiped, and he believes he is saving humanity- until he kisses Historia's hand and realises that all this destruction was his wish from the start. I predict that in the final chapter of the AOT manga, Eren and the other characters will 'wake up' back in the previous/original alternate universe (School Castes), this is how they will be truly free.
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Ford vs Ferrari Part 1 - Greasing the Wheels

From the guys who brought you The Greatest Short Burn of the Century..
Oh man, oh man, oh man.
Not again.
-Drizzy
Preface:
Please believe me when I say I really wanted to take this month off and enjoy the snow in Tahoe. But as I was driving, something caught my eye...
Make no mistake. This stock is not going to be nearly as volatile or profitable as GME. In fact, this might be so boring that most of you will ignore me yet again. And that’s exactly why I like it. I’ll do my best to make this engaging, but the fact is, this is going to be a slow grind. Both this DD and the stock.
Also, as a bonus, Reddit is currently public enemy #1 in the eyes of the media. Why don’t we do a quick heel-turn and join their side? Are they gonna hate us for buying boring value stocks? They won’t know what hit them. That will be a fun show to watch.
Anyway… let’s take a look under the hood. As always, not financial advice. Just education. NOTHING IS A RECOMMENDATION. We are just sharing knowledge here. Ok SEC?
Intro:
Ford (NYSE: $F -- NOT NASDAQ:$FORD), is another depressed deep value multiple expansion arbitrage play. No short squeeze this time. The GME asymmetry may not be seen again for 10 years.
It might seem boring and unsexy on the surface, but Ford is a fantastic company in the midst of one of the best turnarounds in American history. And with a little help from our friend Mr. Options (or as Buffett called, Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction) we can turn a boring old Ford into a lightning fast Ferrari using the quadruple income option wheel strategy. Don’t try this at home. If you don’t know what CSPs, CCs, or vega are, stick to shares. Those should work just fine.
Let’s break this down into 5 parts: electrification story and leadership, multiples expansion, technical analysis, options, and the trade.
By the way, in 2019, the Ford F-Series was second only to the Apple iPhone, which raked in $55 billion, in terms of total revenue generated. The F-Series generated more revenue than the NFL, MLB, NBA, and the NHL combined, which added up to $40 billion. Just something to think about.
The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round...
Electrification story and leadership:
Let’s jump into history for a second. Ford had a meteoric rise from 1997 - 1999 from $15 to around $32 at the peak. This was due to $F reporting massive earnings increases each quarter:
They were just feasting and feasting. Jim Farley looks like the best person alive to revitalize Ford, capable of tripling the stock in 2-3 years. Look at the last two quarters:
Here are excerpts from the Q3 earnings and some other notable highlights:
Farley: Now that plan, which was introduced to the Ford team and many stakeholders on October 1, is very straightforward. Among other things, No. 1, we will compete like a challenger, earning each customer with great products but as well services with rewarding ownership experiences. Number two, we're moving with urgency to turn around our automotive operations, improve our quality, reduce our cost and accelerate the restructuring of underperforming businesses.
And third, we're going to grow again but in the right areas, allocating more capital, more resources, more talent to our very strongest businesses and vehicle franchises; incubating, scaling and integrating new businesses, some of them enabled by new technology like Argo's world-class self-driving system; and expanding our leading commercial vehicle business with great margins but now with the suite of software services that drive loyalty and generate reoccurring annuity-like revenue streams; and being a leader in electric vehicle revolution around the world where we have strength and scale. So now speaking about EVs. To start with, we're developing all-new electric versions of the F-150 and the Transit, the two most important, highest-volume commercial vehicles in our industry. These leading vehicles really drive the commercial vehicle business at Ford, and we're electrifying them.
Quick sidebar here from my buddy M: "Whereas traditional manufact / consumer / industrials are valued on an EBITDA multiple, SAAS has historically been valued on a revenue multiple, which translates to flat out higher valuations. EVs themselves are not necessarily a higher margin product that justifies a higher multiple (at least not that I've seen), but tech services / subscriptions are the real money makers in this game. Hint Hint companies like Apple throwing everything they have at trying to integrate services and subscriptions over the last 5 years"
This further justifies the expansion multiples we expect will catch up to leading EV automakers (see below).
We own work at Ford. And these electric vehicles will be true work vehicles, extremely capable and with unique digital services and over-the-air capabilities to improve the productivity and uptime of our important commercial customers. The electric Transit, by the way, will be revealed next month, and you heard about it here first, for all of our global markets. We believe the addressable market for a fully electric commercial van and pickup, the two largest addressable profit pools in commercial, are going to be massive.
Now you're going to see our strategy of electrifying our leading commercial vehicles and our iconic high-volume products expand very quickly at Ford.
When you look at our results, they reflect the benefit of our decision two years ago to allocate capital to our strongest franchise, namely: pickups, a whole range of utilities across the world, commercial vehicles and iconic passenger vehicles. Additionally, we saw higher-than-expected demand for our new vehicles in the quarter.
Together, these factors, plus the strongest performance from Ford Credit in 15 years, led to a total company adjusted EBIT margin of 9.7%. That's 490 basis points higher than last year.
As an outcome of all this, we generated $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow.
The strong cash flow in the quarter gave us the confidence and the ability to make a second payment on our corporate revolver, which we did on September 24. So now we have fully repaid the entire $15 billion facility, and we ended the third quarter with a strong balance sheet, including nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion of liquidity, which provides us with the vital financial flexibility we need.
Check out this credit downgrade weeks before Ford paid off their revolving credit facility. Smells like GME?
Alright. What about Q4-2020 and beyond? Ford is expected to post a loss. TA is signaling a beat (see the TA section). Ford is spending this money in order further restructure and deliver on the following items in their pipeline:
Bronco:
Mach-E vs Tesla Model Y. Just the fact that there is debate between the better car is bullish for Ford.
The upcoming 2021 F-150 has positive consumer reviews as well:
Ford Raptor launch (just happened today, customers are excited. Look at the comments on YouTube and IG)
Further potential tailwinds:
The Postal Service told Trucks.com that it expects to reach a contract with one or more of the teams bidding for the business in the federal government’s second fiscal quarter of 2021. That works out to the first quarter of next year.
English please? Ford is a strong company. Farley is delivering on his promises and can lead the company towards an operationally efficient turnaround towards electrification. Combine this with a loyal customer base rivaled only by AAPL, and you get another special opportunity. This is the turning point.
Multiples Expansion:
Now here lies the crux of the thesis. Amidst all the EV hype, Ford is being unfairly ignored at an extremely depressed multiple compared to the other companies in the EV space. Here are some comparisons (numbers may be slightly outdated, pulled earlier this week, more relative comparison than absolute):
$Ticker - Market Cap - TTM Revenue MM - TTM EBITDA MM - Revenue Multiple - Ebitda Multiple
TSLA - $810B - $28B - $4B - 29X - 202X
NIO - $92B - $12B - ($7B) - 7.6X - (NaN)
GM - $78B - $116B - $18B - 0.7X - 4.3X
F - $44B - $131B - $10B - 0.3X - 4.4X
That’s an eyesore. Let’s focus on just TSLA and Ford, because why not. Assuming Ford can quickly turn towards electrification (from the evidence above), these two companies are fair comparisons. No Tesla is not a software/energy company, look at their automotive % of revenue. Stop it. It has only recently dropped to 80% due to the expansion of their leasing division. Energy is still a tiny part of TSLA.
Revenue Multiple:
TSLA = 29X
F = 0.3X
EBITDA Multiple:
TSLA = 202X
F = 4.4X
Yes those numbers are correct. Look at them for 60 seconds and tell me what you see. Quick quote from my buddy M:
Just zoom out and think. TSLA is for sure ahead of the rest on their tech and charging infra right now. But in terms of just overall bottom line infrastructure and manufacturing capability; once the GMs, Fs, and VWs of the world can get the ball rolling, they are way ahead in that aspect. Much more experience in production and retail / distribution channels, as well as logistics sourcing. Plenty of battery makers, and self driving tech makers out there too right now. Small to mid scale M&A will probably be the name of the game if I had to guess.
This is why Burry is short $TSLA, but two scenarios can unfold: either the high-flying stocks drop, or Ford rises. I believe we will land somewhere in the middle, with Ford rising as we begin to enter the optimism phase in the final third of our bull market.
Shorting is a dangerous game anyway... So I’ve been hearing on the news...
TA, Options:
Exhibit A from our resident chart whisperer J (who will remain unnamed because you monkeys keep bothering him).
Larger view.
As you can see, the trendline has broken out.
Exhibit B from our resident quant T (also to rename unnamed):
Starting on 1/4 you'll find right tail distributions into any liquidation which represent large buying. Which has led up to a recent run-up and eventually left tail distributions which represent short coverings which lead into the gaps and thinner distributions where there aren't any major bids. Even with the pullback on 1/22 we see more right tail distribution after the profit taking from the recent run-up, which means someone is buying up the inventory.
This is unusual for F, where F trades within tight ranges. On 2/1 you can see a bimodal distribution which means a new player has stepped in, which we assume has additional knowledge apart from the larger players that were already in the market. The recent range between 10.70 and 11.20 indicates that the market has accepted this price range as fair value. Without additional research at first glance we can see that a large player (or players) is buying up a significant amount of inventory.
On 1/4 we find that the volume increased to 77,559,128 from the previous trading of 34,462,454 (125% increase) and 33,127,776 the day before that. Volume has been higher since.
On our first major left tail distribution (which represents short covering) since the buying on 1/4 the volume was at 113,707,973.
Exhibit C
250k shares of F 10.92; 100k F 11.04; 3.53m F 9.78; 708k F 9.78; 500k F 9.64; 377k F 9.50; 338k F 9.50; 201k F 9.75; 192k F 9.80; 150k F 9.77
These are blocks of shares bought in the past 7 days
Top OI changes:
+19610 F 02/05/21 11 C 43821 38% 13% 48%
+12904 F 02/05/21 12 C 31929 38% 11% 52%
Top OI positions:
170902 F 02/19/21 10 C +807 26% 49% 25%
112480 F 02/19/21 12 C +3207 29% 29% 41%
The percentages are bid mid ask.
Someone is bullish on Ford.
For an earnings play, daily RSI is oversold looking towards an uptick.
Options gamma is interesting to note as well.
Open interest on 2/5 $13 and $15Cs are also notable. Could be covered calls? Could be someone knows something?
Could be Jeff reading too much into the tea leaves. Not financial advice. Just showing you what I see.
The Trade: The simplest way is just to purchase shares and collect dividends as Ford may reinstate them sometime in 2021. Possibly leaps if you feel adventurous.
For the option junkies like myself, and as a tribute to the greatest company in American history, I will use the wheel(s). The GME trade was a very special and momentous occasion. Now that we have a bankroll, we’ll just quietly play theta gang as we enjoy our lives and spend time with our families and loved ones. Here’s a good summary.
This is not for amateurs. I mean, none of this is financial advice anyway, just educational.
But in a nutshell, I will: 1) Buy shares, 2) Sell CSPs 30-45 days out with 0.3 delta, 3) sell CCs with 0.3 delta (will reconsider this if Ford goes vertical) 4) Collect dividends.
The Wheel doesn’t work on everything. Here are the qualifications from the above post, let me know if this sounds familiar:
Hmm...
Conclusion:
Ford is a massive, complex, multinational corporation so I’ve likely missed very many things, but I wanted to get this out before ER so I can flex again. (No market manipulation here lol. My buddy's multi-million dollar block buys didn't move the needle one iota.) There are many things I haven’t covered, and simply don’t know yet. As more facts begin to unfold, and as I spend more time with the stock, I’ll share the information here. Also, every time I post about an equity, it seems to go down. Lol... (GME). With all this in mind, this is still a very risky bet.
Nevertheless, I like what I’ve seen thus far. Ford looks like a fantastically healthy company in the midst of a turnaround towards electrification with a phenomenally depressed multiple according to the market’s appetite. It deserves a multiple trending towards TSLA’s, not a dying auto manufacturer. Jim Farley has shown early to be a great CEO and I think he can continue the transformation. We’ve begun to enter a phase of exuberance, so I’ll choose to long Ford instead of short TSLA.
As a bonus, we have the opportunity to join forces with the boomers and talking heads and bet on one of their favorite companies. Time for America to be on the same side again. We’ve been divided for too long.
I know my GME posts were lucky. I’ll stake my reputation on another bet. One call sure is lucky. What about two? In any case, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Glad to be a part of this journey with you all. Note: I will not discuss GME in the comments, which all depends on Ryan Cohen. There is nothing further to add until Q4 earnings.
And finally, we’ve officially entered the last phase of our very long bull market. This is not necessarily a sell signal yet, as some of the greatest returns can come in this period and can last for a long time. I will do my best to look for the signal and sound the alarm. The world will be celebrating, and I will be bearish. Burry’s passive indexing bubble call in combination with Thiel’s government debt bubble call will lead us into a dark time of unprecedented proportions. Tail risk hedging won’t work as the declines will be slow at first, and then fast and violent and unrecoverable. Be careful. Listen to Ken Fisher. Thank you very much for your time.
Positions: Bullish shares, LEAPS, on-going quadruple income wheel strategy as Ford reinstates the dividend. Timeframe 12-18 months. Watch out VIGILANTLY for macro risks. Bear market is on the horizon. Drop some Fs in the chat to pay respects.
PT: $32 with a chance of $98 if we start to see exuberance in the broader market.
-JA
submitted by Jeffamazon to wallstreetbetsOGs [link] [comments]

IMPORTANT: Newcomers read

Oh hey fellow retards, I see you hopped onto the stonk train and pulled up to the WSB station. Welcome to the retarded corner of reddit - grab your wife and her boyfriend, put on your special helmets, and take a seat in your timeout chairs. Today we're going to discuss the basics of WSB culture, and a few do's and don'ts.
What exactly is WSB?
We are a sub focused on making million to one odds bets on different meme stonks, typically chosen because of a funny/memelike/autistic ticker or some creatively retarded DD posted by some idiot with no understanding of market fundamentals who likely just barely passed high school (most of us, including myself). As most of us go broke and balls deep into debt from weekly calls, a few of us get incredibly lucky and their gain porn convinces the rest of us to get a second mortgage on our homes. As the crippling debt piles on, we post our losses so that we can show off our huge karma gains to our wife's boyfriend so he thinks we're cool like him. The story always ends well.
Is WSB a movement?
No retard. WSB was never intended to be a massive movement, and no the goal of WSB wasn't/isn't to "wage war against the rich". The goal is to become rich, so to wage a war against what we ultimately aim to achieve is rather counterproductive. If you're here because you think we care about/share your political/economic views, you're on the wrong sub brotatoe. WSB is about getting filthy rich, or ruining your financial situation for a majority of your adult life while trying. We don't aim to "stick it to the man", we all aspire to BE the man. If you haven't noticed, even u/MartinShkreli is a mod here.
Emphasis: We do not care about your political views. F off.
Didn't WSB intentionally orchestrate the GME short squeeze and collapse of several financial institutions?
Well yes, and no. Yes, the GME short squeeze was a very popular DD being pushed for months - but the reasoning wasn't exactly to wage a war against big financial institutions. The main reason GME was being pushed so hard on here was because people wanted to make so many tendies that they could buy out the Wendy's they work the drive through at. The chaos that ensued because of the shortsqueeze is only an added bonus - Melvin can suck it.
"I only came here to join the movement against Wallstreet..."
F off
Do's and don'ts:
As I mentioned (so many times, here's some rockets in case you skipped everything else above 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀), this sub is NOT a political movement, posting your politics on here is not acceptable. No matter what political party is currently on top, there are different plays you can make to get those sweet tendies.
Do not post or promote your pump and dump schemes. Working together is great, what happened with GME was badass - but remember that there's a VERY thin line between teamwork and market manipulation (one of which being highly illegal).
DO enjoy and join in on our culture, call each other retards and autists, talk about your wife being gangbanged by your successful neighbors and you unsuccessfully tryna impress one of her boyfriends. Share your gains/losses - nothing gets me harder than seeing someone lose 40k. Make some ridiculous DD about some obscure company no one has ever heard about, and convince 20 retards to join you because we're all idiots.
LASTLY - Don't be a loser.
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
EDIT: Made this more PG so mods will allow it to post
submitted by CoolGuyZilla to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

$AMC - Why I'm holding for the long term

With AMC, it's been a battered stock for a while due to the pandemic and their debt issues - it's tough to make a buck when the government basically shuts down your business. But... I've been looking at this stock for a while. Then I saw Silver Lake Group LLC convert their $600 million of convertible notes into equity, so they obviously saw value in the stock at ~$13; That was enough for me to pick up about 1400 shares ~ $15 in January.
The short squeeze could have gone either way, so it was a bet I was willing to make. Had it gone up to $100 due to a short squeeze I'd be happy - if it got crushed by the HF/Media/RH/Revolut and their manipulative fuckery (which is apparently where we're sitting now) then I'd still hold and grab some popcorn (Hopefully you all have realized that RH was never free, you were their product and we know who their masters are now). Two years ago this was a $20 stock, and in the last 5 years it's had an ATH of $35. Predictions are that we're going to see most of the vaccinations occur and a significant lifting of restrictions in time for Summer movie season - and the studios should have some decent blockbusters in the can where we see a big lift to movie theater attendance as us apes emerge from their caves where we have practically lived for 15 months, so assuming AMC stays out of bankruptcy (which is pretty likely at this point), even without a short squeeze this is a stock I can see popping back up to $20-$25 by Fall. They still have their infrastructure, distribution, recliner seats, IMAX and dine-in options. AMC is one of the top vendors for IMAX with a potential sector growth CAGR of 34% in 2021 because we're going to see increased customer spending and a demand for a high quality movie experience that Direct to Home (DTH) just can't match. Lets face it, teenagers are still going to want to take their dates to dinner an a movie.
It's not flashy or as exciting as the GME spike, but long term it's still a good money making opportunity and holding long term or buying the dip still has the potential to see green by the end of the year.
A lot of HF still have this in their scopes and you can see their short interest is still high, but this is more than just a chance to F the HFs, this is also a good value play on a stock they've been battering.
Hold the stock, buy the dip. It's got the fundamentals to weather this storm and emerge strong post pandemic. And added bonus you still get to F the shorts.
submitted by KungFuBucket to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

How to Survive Camping - collateral damage

I run a private campground. Now, it seems some of you are frantic after my last post so I’ll just give you an update on that and get it out of the way. The truth is… I hate all my options right now (the dancers were like nope, not our expertise, good luck with that) and am procrastinating acting on them. It’s fine. I’m fine. The fairy said I have time. It’s probably just nerves. I’m trying not to think about it every time I have to cough. So to keep my mind off my current problems, I’m going to talk about something other than the fomorian situation.
Anyway, if you’re new here, you should really start at the beginning and if you’re totally lost, this might help.
Around here, disobeying a rule typically gets you killed. Insulting one of these inhuman things, however, has collateral damage. The extent of it will depend on the severity of the offense and the disposition of the insulted creature. As I’ve talked about before, the fairy’s vengeance is the most devastating and is not limited to the campground’s boundaries. However, none of these creatures are content with a single victim when seeking redress.
None of them.
I’m going to use rule #9 to elaborate on this. I have quite a few options to choose from - including Beau - but from the comments I feel everyone would appreciate learning more about the thing in the dark.
Rule #9 - Keep track of what time the charge on the solar lights typically runs out. If the solars go out before then, do not leave your tent until sunup. Do not open the tent, not even to look. Stay in your tent, try to sleep, and wait for daybreak.
I have no way to know for certain what the offense was. We already know that merely looking at the thing in the dark is cause for it to swallow you whole, doomed to forever wander the tunnels of its body until the heart calls you to your final death. What kind of offense could you give to such a creature that would cause it to seek even greater retaliation?
I wasn’t as strict on disallowing camping near the mound in the past, as people aren’t crammed in so tight as they are at the big event when I put the senior camp there. I figured people would naturally stay away from the foreboding mound of debris and mostly they did. When the thing in the dark arose with fury, I could only assume they camped too close and did something dumb. Maybe shined a spotlight on its face or something.
But after this past year, I think I have a plausible theory.
I bet they used branches from its body as firewood.
It’s in the camp rules to not use wood from around the camp for fires, specifically so they don’t offend something inadvertently and also so our local firewood suppliers get some good business throughout the year. But we’ve all seen how well people follow the rules.
I think this year I’ll spray paint the plants around the mound magenta so people think it's surrounded by poison ivy. Use some other behavioral pressure to get them to follow the rules, since we all should know by now that structural incentives are wildly ineffective.
We saw that when a certain someone (I swear to god you better not be reading these still, I’m angry just at the thought of it) threw holy water at the children with no wagon. He knew the rules and still did something terribly offensive.
There is a priority in which these creatures take their vengeance. The first to die is the offender and those associated with them. The order in which those two groups are targeted depends on the maliciousness of the wronged party. The dancers, for instance, prefer to take the offender last, after they’ve seen the sort of fate that awaits them from watching the demise of their friends.
If this is not enough to sate the creature’s rage - or if their preferred target has luckily left the campground already - then they turn their anger against my staff.
They are representatives of my campground, after all. In a sense that matters only to the creatures here, they belong to me. The campers are my “guests'' and a failure on their part reflects badly on myself. Not enough to warrant my death necessarily - although I’ve personally had some unpleasant encounters in the past because of people doing something offensive - but my staff are considered of lesser importance. Disposable. And they’re used to send a message.
Their deaths tell me that one of these inhuman things is angry and I am to blame.
In the human world, our leaders certainly do a good job dodging responsibility even for heinous actions they’ve themselves committed. The inhuman world is not so lenient and it has the power to enforce consequences.
I’m sure some of you are thinking, dang, must be sweet to be an inhuman thing. There’s certainly some assholes that have pissed me off that I’d like to take to task. But look - you know those “you can only take this one thing to a deserted island” memes? This is “you can only eat this one thing until the heat death of the universe” and you might want to think long and hard on how raw liver ripped from a screaming victim would taste after 5,000 years of it.
The night the offense was committed, I dreamed of my death at the jaws of the beast. I fled from it down a narrow corridor of which I could not see the walls or the floor, but I knew they were there nonetheless. Behind me the beast approached, its jaw stretching wide, swallowing up everything in my wake until it felt as immense as the ocean. I felt the world tilting, my feet slipped for want of purchase, and then I fell into the beast’s gaping mouth. Its throat glowed like embers and I felt the heat as I tumbled down, into that white-hot heart of light, and I heard the screams of people I thought I knew as I fell.
Then I woke in a cold sweat. It was past dawn. I’d slept through my alarm.
I knew all too well what such a nightmare meant. Someone had vanished and the thing in the dark was to blame. I hurried down to the staff break room to intercept the handful arriving for the shift change.
What they told me as they arrived was alarming. They, too, had nightmares about the death they feared. I uneasily assumed it was due to their daily proximity to the campground. Perhaps that created some tie, tenuous, but enough that the campground could leak into their dreams. After all, the thing in the dark only troubles the dreams of those asleep on my land. That’s how it’s always been.
I’ve seen that the campground… leaks… now. It is not a perfect prison. Perhaps the thing in the dark’s rage was simply that great.
The day passed uneventfully. I learned who vanished in the night because my staff found an abandoned campground. They watched over it, checking in throughout the day to confirm it was truly empty. The tents were made up with all their belongings inside. The coolers were still full of food and beer. It was like they’d all simply gotten up and walked away and never came back.
They were swallowed up without even a struggle. All of them.
I decided we would take down their tents and pack up their belongings the next day. Some of them had left wallets in their tents instead of having them on their person and these we turned over to the local police. None of us would go searching for their relatives, of course. But better that the police knew their names if anyone came calling for answers.
It didn’t occur to me at that point that the thing in the dark had been wronged. There was another, more palatable, explanation at hand. This entire camp had looked at the thing in the dark and been swallowed up at once. Perhaps they were sitting around a campfire - for there were the remains of a fire pit - late at night and the firelight vanished and instead of closing their eyes, they all turned around to look like deer in the road.
I didn’t know of many instances of the thing in the dark taking multiple people at once, so I theorized that this was the reason behind the extended reach of the nightmares. It echoed more strongly this time, touching those closely associated with the campground even though they weren’t on my land.
I told my staff to be a bit more careful and to let me know if they found anything unusual. That was all.
When I’m wrong, people die. It’s easier to bear when someone else is at fault. I can point to their mistakes and say look - see - that isn’t me this time. This is what they did wrong. It’s deserved. Right or wrong, that’s how I looked at it for a long time. It made the job easier. I’m still not sure if I’m willing to shoulder the blame for this one. Yes, my theory was wrong. But it’s not like the thing in the dark made it apparent that it was angered. Beau didn’t drop by to warn me, as he’s done before. It was just me, piecing together the clues as best as I could.
But deserving or not, the thing in the dark held me responsible for the actions of the campers. They always do.
I got up the next morning to find one of my overnight staff dead on my front porch. He’d been methodically disassembled. His body had been opened up, the flaps of skin and muscle neatly pulled open for dissection, and his organs had been removed and set aside. They were still connected, the veins unraveling like yarn, grouped close to the body so that everything remained intact.
He hadn’t succumbed immediately. There wasn’t much blood. Some of the organs were disturbed, though. Instead of being laid out neatly, they were positioned closer to the body, and one hand lay draped close to the heart, as if it’d slid off shortly after death. He’d been left alive, desperately trying to scoop his organs back into his body, before dying of shock.
I called my uncle for help. My great-aunt’s death has always weighed heavily on me and I couldn’t bear disposing of the body alone. We worked together in stoic silence, piling the organs back into the hollowed out shell and hiding it beneath a blanket before any campers could wander past the house. The police came and discreetly took the body away.
“This isn’t like the people with no faces,” my uncle said grimly, after our morbid task was done. “Well, it’s not like them to leave it on your front porch, at least.”
“The man with the skull cup could have done it.”
“You don’t sound convinced.”
I took a deep drink of my coffee. It wasn’t creamer I’d added to it.
“Can you talk to his girlfriend for me?” I asked. “Find out which creature on the campground he feared the most.”
My uncle did. Or rather, he sent my aunt to talk to her. She reported back that my employee had most feared the people with no faces. He’d never had a run-in with them and he hoped he never would. Their scalpels and their deliberate precision terrified him, worse than a creature that would rend and tear like a mindless beast. Their careful intent was far more sinister than something that merely wanted a meal.
The thing in the dark wasn’t merely showing us in our dreams what death we feared the most. It was enacting it now, upon my staff, and leaving the results at my doorstep.
I was at a loss on how to appease it or if it even could be appeased. But nor would I simply stand by and let it murder my staff with impunity. They knew they were potential targets. It was part of the job and why I pay so much more than everyone else around here. For the locals, this is one of the better jobs around, short of owning your own business. However, this was an extreme circumstance, as all of us knew the thing in the dark was not something that could be escaped or reasoned with.
It was like a force of nature and screaming defiance at a storm does nothing to halt its advance.
So I closed the campground. If we couldn’t appease the thing in the dark, we’d wait it out. Let it helplessly expend its anger in whatever manner it chose - so long as it didn’t have human prey within reach.
I evacuated the campground of campers. Fortunately, luck was on my side, and I had an easy excuse that people were more than willing to accept. It had been raining that week. A LOT of rain. The handful of campers that remained on site were already planning to leave, as the forecast predicted it would keep raining for another few days. I sent my staff around to tell everyone there was concern about flooding (there wasn’t) and we were asking everyone to leave as a precaution. They even offered to help people pack up, to ensure they got off the grounds before sundown. I offered partial refunds, but they had to come to the camp office and claim them in person. I hoped that the rain had worn down their wills to the point that few would bother with the extra effort, and my hunch paid off - literally. Few claimed the refund.
Look, I do run a business here.
Then I sent the staff home. I stocked up on groceries and warned my relatives that live on the land to do the same. We’d wait it out. I was confident in the security of our houses, as the main house was never touched (except by the little girl and the beast) and my relatives house’s had the visitor’s blessing (rule #1) and other protections. I locked the gates, cancelled any outstanding reservations that hadn’t already been cancelled due to the coming week’s weather forecast, and hunkered down to wait for the worst.
I kept the blinds drawn so I didn’t inadvertently look outside at the thing in the dark, in case it passed near to the house. No sense in angering it further. I could hear the little girl though and her weeping was close by, as she stayed huddled up against the wall of the house throughout the long night. Around one in the morning my aunt called me to say she’d heard a loud noise passing by, like a gale, but she hadn’t looked and it’d moved on.
I waited through the night, too uneasy to sleep. I might have dozed off a little between two AM and four AM, but it wasn’t a real sleep. I just lay in my bed, hardly covered by the blankets, and nodded off for snippets at a time.
I was waiting to see if the thing in the dark came by my house, carrying its anger in its shadow.
An hour before dawn I heard a noise that made me sit bolt-upright. Something like the scream of a wildcat, but deeper, and far louder. An unnatural sound that had the snapping of trees as an undertone. A cry of rage - and despair, I thought - that made my heart ache for reasons I couldn’t understand.
I think… looking back… the thing in the dark wasn’t merely angry. It was mourning the loss of itself, screaming its pain because it had no other way to make us understand.
And as soon as that unearthly sound stopped, a rumbling took over. The ground itself was shaking. My breath caught in my throat as the ground shifted, trembling from the force of the thing’s scream, and my bed began to rattle in place. Bookcases in my library toppled over, spilling their contents all over the floor. Pictures fell from the walls, spewing shattered glass as they hit. A cacophony of breaking dishes echoed from my kitchen as the plates and glasses slid out of the cabinets, drowning out all other noise. I cowered in my bed, pressing myself into the mattress and hoping nothing fell on me and that the house didn’t collapse. Then the rumbling was gone and the only sound was the rain outside, the little girl’s crying, and the groan of the house as it settled back down on its foundation.
I called my aunt with shaking hands. They’d experienced the same thing. I checked on my other relatives and they all had the same story. A scream and then an earthquake. I called some people outside the campground, checking on my staff, and while none of them had nearly the level of destruction I had, their houses were similarly affected. No one was hurt at least.
Now, this was some time ago, so the old sheriff hadn’t been swallowed up by the vanishing house yet. He drove by to check on the campground the next morning, asking if we’d had any damage from the earthquake. I said that I was still checking the buildings, but so far we appeared to be unscathed. I didn’t say that was because our houses are protected against unnatural things and this was certainly an unnatural earthquake.
The old sheriff told me there’d been a few buildings in town that suffered minor damage. He and the local officers were still making the rounds to check on the remote houses in the surrounding forest and fields.
“Damned strange,” he said, scratching the back of his head. “Didn’t think we got earthquakes out here.”
Very strange, I agreed. As much as I like the old sheriff, he is an honest man where the town is concerned, and I didn’t want their animosity once they found out that the thing in the dark could reach out beyond the confines of the campground, in a sense. They leave my family in peace so long as I keep these creatures contained and their wallets full.
I kept the campground shut down for a full week and when there were no further disturbances, I tentatively called my staff back. Volunteer basis at first, with a hefty bonus as an incentive. A few took the offer and when they survived the night, I felt confident enough to re-open the campground. The thing in the dark remained in its lair, its anger spent in that last helpless cry.
I run a private campground. I’ve always had a healthy level of respect for the thing in the dark. Of all the creatures on my land, I consider it one of the more benevolent ones. It doesn’t actively seek people out to harm them, after all. It just wants to be left alone. But now, when I think back on that scream it uttered, at how it made my chest ache with a yearning that was not my own, I feel something else towards it. I think of what it said to me. How it isn’t whole.
And I pity it. [x]
Also I'm right about the spiders so HAH.
Read the full list of rules.
Visit the campground's website.
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If SSG Goku is a 6, is Beerus Really a 10 and Whis a 15?

Tldr: no, not really.
The anime comics adaptation of the movie DBZ: Battle of Gods featured an interview with Toriyama, which included the following:
Compared to Beerus, God of Destruction, how strong is [Super Saiyan] God?
I suppose if Beerus’ strength is a 10, [Super Saiyan] God would be right about 6. Only, Saiyans rapidly increase in strength as they fight against strong opponents, so the longer they fought, the more that gap would shrink, and it might even be possible for them to eventually turn the tables. Incidentally, I guess Whis would be about a 15.
In the context of the BoG film, Goku being a 6 and Beerus a 10 seems roughly in keeping with Whis’ line from the end of the film, when he says it’s been a long time since he’s seen Beerus use “nearly 70%” of his power, in reference to his battle with Goku. 70% of 10 would of course be 7, which therefore seems to fit the (seemingly) close battle between SSG Goku and Beerus in the movie, with Beerus having the upper hand but also not being able to finger-flick his way to victory like he did against SS3 Goku. Whis being 15 fits with the revelation that he is Beerus’ martial arts teacher, and the way he casually knocks Beerus out at the end of the extended cut of the film.
Still though, note the way Toriyama hedges his bets with a lot of “I suppose” and “I guess”, and note also his answer to a later question in the very same interview:
What about future developments in Dragon Ball?
To be honest, I haven’t given it any thought at all.
The BoG anime comic was published in October 2013, well before Resurrection “F” or Dragon Ball Super, and it seems that in typical Toriyama fashion he didn’t have any long-term plan for the future of the franchise. In other words, when Toriyama was supposing and guessing about how SSG stacked up against Beerus or Whis, he clearly wasn’t thinking about how Golden Freeza, Hit, Goku Black, Jiren, Broly, or Moro fit into the picture. The longer the franchise continues, the more Toriyama’s 6/10/15 statement seems outdated.
(You can stop here if you want, I won't blame you. The rest of this is mainly about sorting DBS characters in relation to SSG/Beerus/Whis)
The thing that really illustrates this of course is Super Saiyan Blue, a transformation that is by definition superior to Super Saiyan God (although if you weren’t around at the time, you’d be amazed at how much this needed to be spelled out before people finally accepted it) yet still inferior to Beerus. Even worse, Goku and Vegeta continuously improve upon SSB via training and further modifications such as Kaio-Ken, Vegeta’s SSB Evolution, and the manga’s completed SSB form, yet all of these remain ultimately inferior to Beerus, with the possible exceptions of SSB Vegetto and Gogeta, but as fusions those don’t quite count.
While the treatment of SSB varies greatly between the DBS anime and manga, both share the fact that Vegeta trains twice in the time chamber, once with Goku to prep for the U6 tournament, and once on his own for his rematch with Goku Black. Therefore it seems that, at the barest of bare minimums, the basic SSB form must have at least three distinct tiers, corresponding to SSB Vegeta in RF, U6, and the later half of the Future Trunks arc onward. In the manga version of the ToP arc he goes up another tier by acquiring the completed SSB form, and in the Moro arc he powers up again thanks to his training on Yardrat.
Since all of these forms are stronger than SSG but below Beerus, obviously if we treat the 6/10/15 statement as still applicable it would entail cramming them all into somewhere around the 7~9 range. One solution I’ve seen is to treat the whole thing as a magnitude scale, making Beerus’ 10 equivalent to 10,000 times the power of Goku’s 6, and Whis’ 15 equivalent to 100,000 times the power of Beerus. It seems unlikely that this is what Toriyama had in mind, but it certainly provides plenty of room to play around with. Even the anime’s SSB Kaio-Ken is a snap!
A more down to earth approach is to just disregard Toriyama’s statement entirely, or at best only view it as applying to the BoG film rather than the ongoing DBS franchise. Still, even if the numbers aren’t that meaningful, the trio of SSG Goku/Beerus/Whis still provides a useful lens for analyzing the power scale of DBS. You can divide all DBS characters up into four categories: 1) weaker than BoG era SSG Goku 2) stronger than BoG era SSG Goku but weaker than Beerus 3) stronger than Beerus but weaker than Whis and 4) stronger than Whis.
Let’s look at categories 1 and 4 first. We might safely consider SSG Goku to be stronger than any character from the original DB manga or the DB/DBZ anime (any GT/Super comparisons are a can of worms I don’t want to open right now), with the possible exception of Vegetto (Goku thinks merging with Vegeta won’t be enough to beat Beerus, but then SSG doesn’t beat him either). Therefore any new DBS character in Category 1 is theoretically comparable to a character from the original series. There’s probably at least a few guys stronger than Vegetto and/or Buu but still below SSG (and even SSB Vegeta falls into this category in the manga when he uses up his stamina showing the form to Cabba), but SSG is the big dividing line between the old and new.
Category 4 is a small group indeed. There’s the Grand Priest, who Whis repeatedly says is superior to him, and then there’s Zeno, who we’re told is capable of destroying anything (although his status as a “warrior” is questionable to say the least). Vados claims she is “slightly” better than Whis, although Whis disputes this as no longer accurate. Without further information at present, we can probably classify all the angels as being in the general vicinity of Whis, with the trainee Merus probably the weakest of the bunch (in ch.68, Whis even describes Merus’ UI as inferior to his own). God only knows about Zeno’s two attendants.
Category 3 is a real minefield, because quite frankly Beerus’s strength has been continually retconned. Most recently, the DBS manga’s new Granolah arc has introduced the idea that Beerus has some special, previously unseen God of Destruction technique(s), so we’ll have to see where this goes. Before now at least, we had Shin’s statement in the DBS manga that Vegetto Blue might be even stronger than Beerus, various hype for Jiren being stronger than a God of Destruction (including Toppo’s manga statement that he’s superior to Belmod in terms of battle power), Goku saying Broly is “probably” stronger than Beerus (placing SSB Gogeta above both), Ultra Instinct Goku outclassing Jiren, and Goku calling Moro his “toughest” opponent to date. Depending on how things go from here, all of these might be retconned to sub-Beerus, leaving Category 3 only home to the other Gods of Destruction (although Beerus seems like he might be the best of them too, judging by the manga ToP’s warmup GoD free-for-all).
Category 2 then is the real meat and potatoes of DBS, the place Goku and Vegata spend most of their time, and by extension the home of any character comparable to them in strength (or a step or two ahead or behind). Besides Goku, Vegeta, and their various versions of SSB, Category 2 undoubtably contains Golden Freeza, Hit, Goku Black, Merged Zamasu, and Toppo. Kale and Kefla definitely make the cut in the anime, and while their manga versions seem much weaker, it’s still probably easier to put them above SSG. Gohan fights Kefla to a draw in the manga, so by extension he should make the grade too (and in ep.91 of the anime, the narrator says he “demonstrated a power that pressured even Goku”). 17 likewise seems weaker in the manga, but Goku still says 17’s strength is “not much different” than his own in ch.42 after the end of the ToP.
The manga’s Moro arc gives us Moro himself, who is definitely in this category some of the time, even if he (maybe) surpasses Beerus by the end (or maybe not). And Majin Buu with Grand Kaioshin’s memories restored puts up a good enough fight against Moro to be here too. Plus Saganbo and 7-3, in a way (though not due to their own natural strength). In the film DBS: Broly, Broly’s angry quasi-Great Ape form mops the floor with SSG Goku, and his Super Saiyan form is even stronger (then there’s his beefy Full Power form, which might be what Goku had in mind when he said Broly was “probably” stronger than Beerus). DBZ vol.11 has a short bonus feature where Goku recounts the movie’s events to Merus and explicitly describes SS Broly as stronger than him and Vegeta’s SSB forms, so we can take at least that part of the movie as applicable to the manga version as well.
On the purely anime side of things, there’s Trunks’ so-called “Super Saiyan Rage” form which puts up a good fight against Goku Black but isn’t in the manga at all (plus his Spirit Sword attack). And who could forget Copy Vegeta? Dyspo’s in both the anime and manga of course, but in the anime Goku seems to specifically need SSB to counter him (after using SSG for the first time in ages), and he also gives the likes of Hit, Golden Freeza and Gohan a hell of a time. Contrast this with the manga, where he never does anything to clearly indicate he’s above SSG.
The same might be said for Ribrianne and Agnilasa, who seem like contenders in the anime, but lack any comparable feats in the manga (although Agnilasa at least has the excuse of getting knocked out by berserker Kale). Bergamo and Obni are two more examples, putting up good fights against SSB Goku and ToP Gohan in the anime, but not the manga (even in the anime, they both get a lot of mileage out of tricky techniques, which clouds the issue). Overall, in the anime Goku defaults to SSB so often that using it as a measuring stick is maybe not a great idea.
With all that said, we can now construct a sorta-kinda power scale for Super. Not a strict top-to-bottom hierarchy, but a rough map based on those four general categories and a few sub-categories, and from there just going mainly in order of appearance. Also I’m going to try to not by any more specific about different forms than I have to be.
Category 1 (SSG Goku and below)
--Below SSG Goku
--The general vicinity of SSG Goku
Category 2 (between SSG Goku and Beerus)
--Both manga and anime
--Anime only
--Manga only (so far…)
Category 3 (the minefield that is Beerus)
--The general vicinity of Beerus
--The “maybe stronger than Beerus” club
Category 4 (Whis on up)
--The general vicinity of Whis
--Definitely superior to Whis
Drttldr: Hopefully the above chart is helpful to somebody, but if not, whatever.
Next Week: who can blow up the moon?
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GME Tribe: A Story About How Ryan Cohen is About to Kick Down Sherman's Door and Drink His Milkshake 🚀🚀🚀

Come gather ‘round GME management wherever you roam. And admit that the waters around you have grown and accept it that soon you’ll be drenched to the bone. If your time to you is worth saving, then you better start swimming or you’ll sink like a stone, for the times they are a-changin’.
Story time for the GME crew. All those who are certain tHis iS bLoCkBusTer or the paper hands that sold yesterday can just keep scrolling. We wish you the best of luck in the best of all possible worlds: this one, dear Pangloss.
**I’ve tried to submit this three times now and the moderators keep rejecting it. Maybe because I use too many naughty words? I guess I’ll try to clean that up a bit, which runs counter to all my instincts.
Did we have a good day Wednesday after that Q3 call? No, we did not. Do you know who lost over $20M (at least on paper) yesterday? Mr. Ryan Cohen. How do you think he felt about that CC and that inexplicable shelf registration that is, as one stocktwits commentator put it, a “poor man’s poison pill” and as obvious of a FU to Cohen and shareholders that the Board could have possibly designed? Do you think he was happy to see that?
I think he was thrilled to see it.
And now I’m going to tell you why.
This is a long post, so I’m going to give the TL/DR sum up for you Paste Eating Rocket Kids, and this will serve as a warning that there are, in fact, a lot of words that you may choose to read or not. So if I still see one goddamn comment about this being a lot of words and where’s the rockets maaaaan, I might just transport myself through this internet connection and [removed to satisfy the delicate sensibilities of the robot moderators].
So here’s the TL/DR: I believe that Cohen is executing a plan to take out the GME Board. And I think that Sherman just walked right into Cohen’s trap because he’s a dumb, selfish Boomer with a huge ego and a Broken Brain. And Cohen is going to be a legend because of it after he executes this plan, triggers the MOASS, and takes control of GME to convert it to a tech-first gaming juggernaut.
Now, if you’re in on this GME shit, you likely know the outlines of the story here. But here’s a good link to refresh your memory about why we’re all here:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/k4csaa/the_real_greatest_short_burn_of_the_century_part/
And for further background, my recent post about the battle here between George Sherman, out-of-touch Hired Gun B&M Boomer CEO with the Boomer-est of all possible Boomer names, and Ryan Cohen, Boy Genius, Actual Good Guy, and Man With The Chewy-fication Plan: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/k9apx5/gme_q3_call_thoughts_on_the_clash_between_cohen/
So: are we ready to start READING and THINKING, children? Good.
Now what were you doing in the summer of 2020? I don’t give a shit what you were doing. But I do give a shit about what Ryan Cohen was doing. And there is a decent amount of evidence that Ryan Cohen spent the summer of 2020 hiring a bad ass lawyer and crafting a pretty solid plan to wrest control of a struggling Mall-based gaming retailer from its out of touch Boomer Board and CEO so he can turn it into an ecommerce juggernaut like his baby Chewy. And I think we are about to enter the next phase of that plan here shortly.
But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s first all get acquainted with Christopher P. Davis, Esquire, the attorney listed on each of the 13Ds filed by RC Ventures.
Chris Davis, Activist Attorney Extraordinaire and His Successful Use of the Consent Solicitation to Remove Dipshit Boards/CEOs
To cut to the chase, Chris Davis (who is definitely NOT the same dude playing first base for the Orioles) is a badass NYC attorney recently recognized as one of the nation’s premier shareholder activist lawyers. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kleinberg-kaplan-partner-chris-davis-recognized-by-chambers-usa-as-leading-shareholder-activist-lawyer-301090571.html.
So what was Chris Davis doing in the summer of 2020? So glad you asked. He was celebrating a major win he helped engineer on behalf of a “first time activist Michael Gorzynski” for a wholesale replacement of the sitting Board at HC2 Holdings, Inc (sounds fancy). He helped engineer this takeover via a “high stakes consent solicitation rather than the more typical proxy contest.”
Learn more about this here: https://www.kkwc.com/insights/kleinberg-kaplan-advises-mg-capital-management-in-its-consent-solicitation-and-successful-settlement-with-hc2-holdings/
Here’s a few more links if you care to learn more about that and how it all went down (spoiler alert: the activists settled for two seats on the Board and then the new Board very quickly ousted the dipshit Boomer CEO, Phil Falcone)
http://www.shareholderforum.com/shfk/Library/20200611_II.htm
http://www.shareholderforum.com/access/Library/20200219_Deal.htm
In sum: if you look into Chris Davis, you can see that this guy is dialed the fuck in and knows how to get activist shareholders a win—even in very challenging circumstances.
The Summer of ’20 Out-of-the-Blue Boy Genius Media Campaign and Cohen’s 13D Filing in August
I’m going to return to the “consent solicitation” thing at the bottom and why I think it matters here, but I don’t want to lose momentum on the timeline and evidence. And the consent solicitation is Advanced Level Shit that I barely understand anyway. But I think it’s likely to be goddamn important so I’ll get to it.
Now, where were we? Oh yes, the inexplicable media campaign.
RC Ventures files its 13D on August 18th announcing that Ryan Cohen is now the proud owner of 5.8M shares or 9% (later increased to 9.8%) of That Cluttered Video Game Geekery You Used to Pass on Your Way to Jamba Juice or Wherever People Go in Malls. Uh, ok man. But then this is when the SP of this Future Blockbuster™ starts its real run as more catch on that Cohen has taken a huge stake and that is also part of the portfolio of Mr. Big Short himself and a bunch of institutions and they actually have cash and are definitely not going bankrupt and oh have you heard about the insane short percentage of float and the upcoming console cycle that invariably corresponds to a sharp spike in SP? Well have you? But to return to the point: RC was and is the largest shareholder.
But prior to the date Cohen filed his 13D, there is a renewed media campaign focused on Ryan Cohen, Ecommerce Billionaire Genius who built Chewy, kicked Amazon’s ass, and then sold it for $3.35B way back in the heady mask-free days of ‘17. Why the sudden re-emergence of Mr. Cohen in the summer of 2020 in such a prominent way with this glowing media campaign about a guy who sold a very successful pet supply business over three years ago? Fawning media exposure like that doesn’t just happen (or not usually). It’s engineered. Or, more charitably, helped along by people who know people and can introduce those people to Interesting Topics to Write About. And my guess is that Chris Davis, bad ass activist attorney based in New York City, Knows People and had a little something to do with it.
Here are the links to all of the glowing media pieces starting in the summer of 2020 (all absolutely worth a read to get to know who this guy is and what makes him tick):
June 5 (Bloomberg) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/chewy-founder-cashes-out-bets-on-apple-wells-fargo
August 4 (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/chewy-co-founder-ryan-cohen-this-is-the-side-hustle-id-start-now.html
August 16 (Forbes) https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/08/16/entrepreneur-chewy-founder-ryan-cohen-shares-his-best-advice/?sh=41e1370e5840
October 15 (Business Insider) https://www.businessinsider.com/chewy-ryan-cohen-warren-buffett-lessons-apple-investment-2020-10
And a lot of the speculation I’m wheeling and dealing here was introduced by our man Justin Dopierala at Seeking Alpha way back in a September article not too long after the 13D filings: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4373819-gamestop-chewys-founder-ryan-cohen-finds-whats-next
But for now let’s “put a pin” on Mr. Dopierala, as George Sherman or some other Corporate Robot Dipshit might say, as he will be important to the story here again soon.
The November 16th “F U Old Man” Letter
If you haven’t read this ballsy letter Cohen wrote to the Board last month, you really should. We’ll wait for you. https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/RC_Ventures_Letter_to_GameStop.pdf
OK, ready again?
I don’t want to question Cohen’s possible writing abilities or give away too many tricks of the lawyer trade here (AI should take care of that in about a decade), but that letter was 100% written by Chris Davis. I’d literally bet my entire portfolio on that fact alone. That’s why you hire gunners like him. The letter has that has deliciously direct and aggressive lawyerly tone—the kind you use when you want to send a very clear message to some asshole without spelling it all out. I fucking love this letter. It was one of the main reasons I put the rest of my chips into the GME basket. I doubt I’m alone there.
And what did we learn from this letter? Well: a lot. But I’m going to focus on a few quick things. First, we learned that over the Summer, Cohen had “private conversations” with the Board and Sherman about the need to pivot toward becoming a technology-driven business with a new strategic vision. And he calls out Sherman and the Board directly for lacking this vision, using Mainstreet-Friendly pejoratives like “c-suite” and “boardroom.” He takes a direct shot at Hired Gun Sherman’s Boomer-Ass Business Record (Advanced Auto Parts! Cool!) and his obvious bent towards what he knows: Boring Ass Low Margin B&M Bullshit Companies and straight-up calls him a dumb-ass old man (“twentieth-century focus!”) who Just Doesn’t Fucking Get It. He alleges that he and the Board have presided over “massive value destruction” (almost makes it sound intentional, or at least grossly negligent) and have never taken “full accountability” for all their fuck-ups and intransigence.
Some folks have suggested that, sure, Cohen wants change and yeah he seemed like he had a bit of a bee in his bonnet, but if he doesn’t get some good movement in those areas, he’ll just sell his 6.5M shares to tank the stock and take his ball and go home to play with his dog, who loves him No Matter What. In this interpretation, the letter is just Cohen Asking To Speak To The Manager and then if the response is not to his liking, well then, He Will Just Take His Business Elsewhere, thankyouverymuch.
I do not think that is what is going on here. Not with Ryan Cohen and Chris Davis. This letter is Ryan Cohen Crossing The Fucking Rubicon.
He did the honorable thing and took his vision to the Board and Sherman. How genuine he was in that effort, I have no idea, as my thesis is that he has had a takeover plan in place since he hired Chris Davis. But whatever the initial motivations, it was the honorable thing to do to discuss his vision with Sherman and the Board before he and Chris Davis eventually rip their fucking hearts out (which, spoiler: I believe he is getting ready to do as we speak).
Reasonable minds can disagree here, but I do not think you write a letter like that unless you have a plan to handle all possible responses to it. He just torched his collegial relationship, such as there ever was or could have been, with that CEO and that Board. He flaunts Chewy’s world-class infrastructure and market cap versus their lame ass sub-$1B Dying Mall Store Bullshit. And he makes a very public rejection of a seat on the board (and the reason given: because you fuckheads would just ignore me and drive me nuts while you continue doing Dumb Boomer Shit with my money all goddamn day), which made it 100% clear to me that this is Cohen Serving Goddamn Notice that unless they get serious about the scope of their turnaround and start listening to him and convey this new direction to shareholders asap, that he’s coming for them. He even alludes to his own turnaround plan but then tells them to do their jobs like the Big Capable Adults they are.
And then Cohen attaches this letter to an amended 13D to ensure that all shareholders see it and also see that he still holds all of his shares. Within hours, the WSJ had an article on this: https://www.wsj.com/articles/gamestops-new-billionaire-investor-calls-for-tech-centric-makeover-11605565458?mod=hp_lista_pos5.
And guess what’s neat? If you are an interested shareholder or a habitual reader of the Wall Street Journal (I, sir, am not) and you saw that article, you might have wondered what this Cohen guy is all about? You know, Mortimer, the dog guy—made billions. And thanks to the recent out-of-the-blue marketing campaign that was definitely NOT engineered by Chris Davis as part of a takeover plan, your subsequent Google searches, and the recent articles they produced, likely made you think: this guy is a fucking whiz kid and I like the cut of his jib.
Cohen Quietly Meets With Funds/Investors
In the weeks leading up to earnings, sharp observers also notice something: Ryan Cohen is meeting with various large shareholders for some reason. There were several reports of this on stocktwits (links are lost to eternity in that cluttered hellhole unless some astute commentator can find and link in the comments), so some salt is a necessary accompaniment here (I like to cite my evidence), but we have at least one confirmed meeting with the head of DOMO Capital: Mr. Justin Dopierala. Now, Justin happens to be a pro-GME writer (and a sharp one at that) at Seeking Alpha. You know, that paywall website where people purporting to know what they’re talking about get paid peanuts to write purposefully inane articles for maximum clicks from other idiots? That one. Well Justin is one of the good ones there, and DOMO Capital is also a large shareholder of GME. (Conflict of interest, you say? Shut yo’ mouth!).
On November 30, at 9:19 AM (the payin’ for inanity crew can go see this – the comment is still there), Dopierala made the following comment on another SA article:
***
“I've recently had the pleasure of having a 1 on 1 video meeting with Ryan Cohen that lasted over an hour.
Going forward, I no longer feel comfortable commenting on the topic (of Ryan Cohen), so please understand when I do not respond to any of your questions on this specific topic.
Ryan is a very intelligent man, and I remain as bullish as ever on GameStop's future."
***
So what can we extrapolate from this?
Ryan Cohen likely reached out to DOMO Capital/Dopierala to discuss his strategic vision. I do not know if he announced his plans directly, or what the purpose of the call was (see the very below on how I think this all could relate to a consent solicitation to recall the board) but I’m sure, at the very least, the text, if not the subtext, was heavy as fuck on that Zoom call. And why do I think Cohen contacted him and not the other way around? Because Dopierala, a writer for SA that I’m sure would love to publish even an anodyne Q&A with Ryan Cohen to Get Him All the Clicks, didn’t get an on-the-record interview. Not even some softball about whether his dog prefers his Apple investment decision or his Wells Fargo one. No: he got the concession (assuming he did) to simply acknowledge that a discussion took place (buried in a comment on some other dude’s SA article), but he explicitly says he’s not going to talk about anything related to Cohen going forward. No sir, no how. But if Cohen is just a regular old fellow shareholder (Cue Ryan: “And Justin, please: the pleasure is all mine”), then why the fuck are you making a cagy comment and acting like you Have A Big Fucking Secret and Oh God I Wish I Could Tell You Something But I Just Cant! with that comment, Justin? The Man Doth Protesting and Shit, I say.
Here’s the article link for you Seeking Alpha Super Sleuths: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4380313-gamestop-likely-already-digital-revenue-sharing-sony-up-to-10
And even yesterday, Dopierala can’t help himself. In a discussion about Cohen’s tweet yesterday (you saw the tweet right? What kind of GME-to-da-moon! investor are you anyway? https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1336775515101949963), Dopierala gets all Jim Carey As The Riddler on us in a response to “EricinPDX,” (some dude living in the Portland Airport) who writes:
EricInPDX
I take his tweet as a total negative .. the Jim Cramer thing.
I have no position at the moment.
Our man Dopierala then responds “then you are wrong yet right.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4393394-gamestop-cohen-right-to-downplay-ps5-xbox-series-mistakes-core-digital-problem
So I think he’s having a little fun talking like a slightly less backwardsy Yoda saying: yeah, that Cohen tweet was obviously negative because he’s highlighting how fucked GME seems after that Q3 call (and also, check out how Chewy’s doin’ in that clip!). But it’s also not negative because it means Cohen is about to rip Sherman’s still-beating heart out and Shock And Awe our asses with a vote. And I, Justin Dopierala, head of DOMO Capital, can be a little wink winky about this because, oh I don’t know, on our hour long call Cohen maybe used puppetry to act out “Bryan Flohen’s” plan to call a vote and supplant the Bad Man “Gerald Shorman” while asking “Would You Theoretically Be With Bryan Flohen?” with a few well-timed arch of the eyebrows. Or he got his explicit consent to his plan (see below re consent solicitations). We just do not know.
In conclusion: We know that Cohen met with shareholders in the period between the day he sent that letter and the date of the Q3 call. We just do not know what was said. But we do know that Dopierella, either out of a sense of journalistic ethics (Stop laughing you guys! Seriously!) or out of concern about possible SEC lookie-loos, decides to be up-front about his inability to even utter the name Ryan Cohen from now on.
General George “Custard” Sherman’s Lame-Ass Empire Striking Back
Let’s recall the letter now. I’m guessing a rich, egotistical pampered-ass hired gun Boomer CEO named George goddamn Sherman didn’t like someone who reminds him of his asshole kids talking to him like that.
We all know what happened next: the Q3 “Say Omnichannel One More Time Motherfucker!” call. As I mentioned in my prior post on this (link above if you care), Sherman pulled the boomer-ist of boomer moves in an act of self-sabotage that is likely to be studied in business courses once this whole story plays out. You see, that letter that Cohen/Davis sent was a trap. And Sherman and the Board and their Big Fucking Corporate Brains clearly lack an inner Admiral Ackbar.
Cohen sent that letter three weeks before the earnings call. And demanded that they conduct *another* strategic review and present a plan to shareholders outlining how they are going to fully pivot into a new technology focused company. Cohen knows they have no intention of doing this. He’s apparently been hectoring them all summer about it. And I’m guessing he talked to Sherman enough to know that the dude is just not on the level (as all of us who listened to that fumbling bland-ass corporate caveat-speak on that call got to experience as well). So he knows, like we all did, that Q3 earnings are likely to be middling at best. But unlike me, who clearly thought that the one way out of this for Sherman and the Board was to give some exciting guidance on Q4, maybe even a share buyback (as they are authorized to do) and some more info on the Microsoft deal, likely revenue, other possible similar deals with Nintendo and Sony. I don’t know, but Something. No, Cohen and Davis are way smarter than me and know Sherman a bit better and probably assumed that Sherman is likely to whiff on a response to his letter. And lo and behold, whiff he does. Nothing. We get no response to the letter and no real plan to transform GME into a tech-driven gaming company (Sherman: “but, but…I said Omnichannel you guys! What do you want from me beyond bland corporate robot speak!?”).
But what else happens? Sherman and the Board inexplicably authorize a shelf registration for up to $100M worth of ATM shares. This from a company that just bought back shares, is authorized to buy back more, paid down debt early—and now is about to be flush with Sweet, Sweet New Console Cash. What in the everlasting fuck?
And in case you were inclined to give Sherman and the Board the benefit of the doubt here, the reason was simple and straightforward and included within the S3 filing itself. And that is: “Hey Cohen: Fuck Off. And if we have to dilute our shareholders to get you to fuck off, by God that’s the kind of shortsighted ME-first move that got George Sherman where he is today! So go find another company to hassle you ungrateful Millennial Start Up Dog Store Bro and let the adults handle this.”
Here is the provision in the S-3 (under the heading: Anti-Takeover Provisions):
Authorized But Unissued Shares
The authorized but unissued shares of common stock and preferred stock are available for future issuance without stockholder approval. These additional shares may be utilized for a variety of corporate purposes, including future public offerings to raise additional capital, corporate acquisitions and employee benefit plans. The existence of authorized but unissued shares of common stock and preferred stock could render more difficult or discourage an attempt to obtain control of us by means of a proxy contest, tender offer, merger or otherwise.
So instead of crushing the call and giving some dope guidance about Q4 and trigger the MOASS so we all revere the name George Sherman for All Eternity, Sherman and the Board make a lame-ass move to try to protect their jobs and--lo and behold!--THIS is the main takeaway of the report and call. And what drives the precipitous dive in SP AH and yesterday. A dive so steep that it removes well over $100M in market cap in value, the kinda-lame amount that you’re trying to stick Cohen with (and dilute all of us) so you can keep your Big Fancy-Man Job and the bonus you’re counting on so you and the misses can jet off to Sandals Jamaica like you always do. George: Whoops? Knew we should have gone with a higher number! A lame ass “poor man’s poison pill” as u/snowk88 on stocktwits put it (shout out because he also helped me flush out this thesis a bit and clued me in on Chris Davis’s work for MC).
So back to how I started this missive, back when we were all younger and maybe a bit more naïve, right? Anyway. Yesterday Ryan Cohen lost over $20M on paper because George Sherman thought the best way to handle that Punk-Ass Millennial was to use shareholders as a hostage in any possible fight over control of this company he’s been building his entire—oh, eh, the last 18 months because he’s just a hired gun that goes where the money is and waits for his ka-ching moment before splitting because who gives a fuck he’s George Sherman and You’re Not. But guess what happens when you do that? (Hand down, George: you’ve had your turn). You ENRAGE the shareholders who you want to have your back and vote for you in any possible proxy fight or takeover offer! What strategery! You must have been involved in planning the Iraq war, George.
But guess who was likely laughing their ass off yesterday at their colossal good fortune at this misstep? Ryan Cohen and Chris Davis. Because now Sherman has opened the door even wider than it was before and made it that much easier for Cohen to get the votes and kick down his fucking door.
And yesterday, to no one’s surprise, the SP falls almost 20% and even Jim Fucking Cramer piles on and tells all his braindead Boomer TV watchers that this is The Next Blockbuster like all the other Super Sophisticated Analysts out there.
And now we see the #WeWantCohen and #InstallCohen hashtags (which you all should consider using frequently if you dig all this and think Sherman needs to go).
What are you thinking if you’re Ryan Cohen? Take your ball and go home time? Or: maybe that it’s time to Show George Sherman that You Do Not Fuck With a Super Nice Guy With Really Good Ideas That Are Usually Respectfully Presented (Unless You Piss Me Off) Like Ryan Goddamn Cohen?
I’m thinking it’s the latter. Taking all of this, I think Cohen and Chris Davis have been planning some kind of takeover, possibly even via consent solicitation like Davis did in his MC matter, since the summer and that George Sherman’s ironic attempt to save his own skin is about to backfire stupendously to help Cohen lock in the votes he needs. And it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy—excuse me—I mean: Smug Asshole.
Epilogue: The Consent Solicitation
Ed: the consent solicitation is not likely in play here. But Cohen is definitely still coming for Sherman and Co - we just don't know exactly how yet.
Now, just what in the hell is a consent solicitation and why does it matter? I confess that I didn’t know shit about this until I started READING ALL THE WORDS, but our friends at theactivistinvestor.com have some useful information to help those of us with tiny little baby brains understand what it is and why it may be relevant here (relevant excerpts below, but it you really want to geek out on this shit, I would recommend clicking the link, reading the words and THINKING BIG THOUGHTS). And also, hoping that some folks can respond in comments to help flush this out further because it’s late and I’ve already written too many words.
But, before I drop some k-n-o knowledge from our friends at theactivistinvestor.com, just to remind you: GameStop is a Delaware Corporation.
Now imagine being magically whisked away to…Delaware! (Hi. I’m in Delaware).
*******
From: http://www.theactivistinvestor.com/The_Activist_InvestoConsent_Solicitations.html
[Ed: removed quoted text] *****
CPT Hubbard here again. I’ll release you momentarily. But study those steps a bit and ponder where Cohen might be in that process. And also recall that we know that Cohen had an “off the record” meeting with our man Dopierala from DOMO Capital and we have no idea what they talked about. Could Cohen have been getting shareholders consent? No idea. But it certainly seems possible. If that is the case, the 60 day clock is ticking. Which means that, assuming Dopierala was stop #1 (probably doubtful, but it’s the one data point we have), we should know something by at least late January if Cohen is actually initiating a consent solicitation on this incompetent Board and probably a lot closer to mid-January (Sorry Jan call holders) since I assume Cohen started reaching out around the time he sent that letter on Nov 16th.
To which I say to Cohen: Little old me and my 20,000 shares consent! We consent most emphatically, sir. And no one will ever accuse you, Mr. Cohen, of not seeking consent. You may retain this for your records.
To conclude, Cohen is Young, Scrappy and Hungry and He’s Not Throwing Away His Shot. And Fuck George Sherman.
“I’M FINISHED”
**To be clear: this missive is for information purposes only and I would advise against following my example in any way, shape or form, as this pandemic has quite plainly knocked a screw loose if I'm here writing novelas to a bunch of Paste-Eating Rocket Kids.
submitted by CPTHubbard to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Karen visits the fish store (and swims with them too!)

So, this happened last Saturday but due to work and a few other commitments I haven’t been able to post until now. As usual, I typed way too much than was needed so TL;DR at bottom.
I woke up Saturday morning in a really good mood, the sun was shining, my dog was cuddling me, and I had a date planned with an awesome woman I’d been flirting with for a couple months. As 2021 has already proven, though, good things were not meant to be. After getting ready and waiting for our meet up time, I headed out to find that I’d been stood up. It sucks, but in hindsight I probably should’ve expected it for reasons I won’t get into here, but are valid and while I’m still annoyed I didn’t at least get a cancellation text, I don’t hold any ill will and we’re still on friendly terms. The day was slightly saved, however, by a friend who knows that I’ve always loved the ocean and have always wanted a marine/saltwater aquarium. They sent me a link to a good deal on a used tank big enough for some smaller ocean fish, $100 for a 75 gallon tank which is an absolute steal, so I was extremely excited.
I needed to patch a leak or two along a corner, but after doing so and testing it I was confident it was functional again and headed to the fish store to start getting things needed to set up my tank. Now, for those that don’t know, it takes quite a while and a lot of time and work to get a saltwater tank ready before you can even think about putting fish in there, to include treating the water to remove chemicals, then treating to remove chemicals that removing chemicals produces, getting the right ph balance, the precise salt content (precise enough that it’s measured to the thousandths of a decimal), and finally adding “live” sand and rocks (meaning they have bacteria living in or on them that will help the nitrogen cycle of the tank and other things I’m not smart enough to fully understand). Oh, and a heater so it stays the right temperature. Now, I tell you all of this not to bore you with details or because I think internet strangers are interested in my dating life (or, more honestly, lack thereof), but so you can understand the mindset I had going into the store. I was annoyed, a bit angry because at the time I only knew I’d been stood up and didn’t know the reason, and more than a little overwhelmed at the task I had set out to do. In short, while I’m generally an easygoing guy who tries to let things slide, this particular Saturday I wasn’t really in the mood to be fucked with, as the kids say (or at least I think they do). Ok, anyway, lengthy backstory I’m sure I’ll get plenty of complaints about out of the way, on to the story you came here for.
I arrived at the local fish store and before asking for help decided to browse a bit. Important to note, this fish store also happens to have reptiles for sale as well, and a side shop of exotic pets like lemurs, parrots, and other smaller creatures that are not for sale but people can pay to feed, take pictures with, etc. Its also a family owned shop and is known for having really nice and super helpful employees, but that’s just a bonus detail. Anyway, while looking around a few kids were asking their mom what kind of fish some were, who didn’t know so I volunteered the information to them. This led to an older gentleman asking me for some help with some fish, but after learning I didn’t work there he went about his way, no big deal. Then the chime of someone entering the store sounded, followed by the pitter-patter of little feet moving way too fast to be around so much glass, and the sigh of an exasperated woman can be heard, you know that sound that makes the Karen alarms go off in your head? Or the ones that make decently behaved kids think “wow, maybe I pushed mom too far this time.” Yeah, that one. I hear an employee asking the kid not to run, but lose interest and go back to browsing. Also important to the story and another reason the kid shouldn’t be running, you know those big koi ponds in the ground some places have? They have one here, with a small wooden bridge going over it separating the shop from the fish storage.
I finally get around to asking for some help and advice on the best way to plan my tank set up as I have to do it little by little because bad financial decisions, such as prioritizing the need to eat and have healthcare over having a savings account, means that I will have to do the set up piece by piece. I’m fine with this, nothing worth having comes easy, or so they say, but I’m worried that this might mean I have to change some things about how I approach the tank build. While speaking with him, I do notice the mother I spoke to earlier (with the nice kids) point in our direction to the Karen of today’s subject. She walks up to us as the employee is explaining how to use a hydrometer (the device that measures the salinity of water, or I think more accurately the “gravity” of the water? Whatever that means) and says “You, my kid wants to see your reptiles, he’s back there waiting but I won’t get anywhere near those things.” No excuse me, no apology for interrupting, hell she didn’t even wait for a reply, she just spoke over the employee and turned to walk towards the fish tanks holding the bigger fish.
At this, the employee gives me a look of shared annoyance, shrugs, and continues explaining to me. I guess the Karen made a round because she eventually came back and saw we hadn’t moved and looked pretty mad and looked right at me, “Excuse me, (yes, she did actually say it this time) I believe I told you my son needs help. You can finish talking to your friend after you’ve done your job.” At this, the employee starts with “Ma’am...” but trails off as my I guess I needed to relieve some tension and replied “Lady, I don’t work here and you’d probably get more help if you tried showing some decency to people.” Admittedly, even as I said it, I knew I was only going to make things worse, and for what it’s worth a small part of me did feel bad for poking a bear I knew would be other people’s problem, but it just slipped through my filter and I wasn’t going to back down now.
Predictably, this set her off. She started going on about how it was her kid’s birthday was today and since “this damn hoax is still going on” (yet she was wearing a mask so I’m not sure what she really believes) she couldn’t take him to a proper zoo like he wanted so they “had to settle for this shitshow.” It’s a fairly small store, so the ownemanager showed up around this time, cutting her off and asking her to calm down, explaining that I don’t work there, and somehow wrangling her over to the counter where she could pay for her son to feed/hold some of the animals. Surprisingly, instead of doubling down, she actually seemed to believe the owner when he said I didn’t work there, not that I got an apology or anything.
After this, I thank the employee and let him head to the back to hide from this psycho and I turn my attention to the reptile room to check out the lizards and turtles (unrelated but I absolutely love turtles and tortoises). Unbeknownst to myself, the employee, or apparently even the Karen, there was already an employee helping her kid who I guess learned it was his birthday (he had some balloon they give to kids saying happy birthday with the store logo), and was letting him hold some of the animals before his mother paid, or thinking she had already paid, or something, I guess it’s not important. What is important, however, is a noise slowly rising in volume coming from the store section. A noise that sounds suspiciously like a Karen berating an employee (or in this case owner) undeservedly. I look to the employee helping the kid to give her a warning look, and see that she has handed this kid a snake to hold, good sized too. Nothing huge, maybe 4ish feet long, looked to be about the same size as the kid, sorry, I’m not knowledgeable on snakes enough to know what kind it was. The kid sees me looking at the employee and I guess thinks I was looking at him holding the snake and brings it up so I can see it better.
Kid: “isn’t it cool?!?! I love snakes!”
Me: “yeah! Do you have any?”
Now, readers, I feel at this point it’s important for me to say that I was genuinely just trying to be nice to the kid and had no malicious intent at all, truly. It was his next sentence that sparked my plan.
Kid: “No, my mom won’t let me have any, I think she’s scared of them.”
Ok, now I know that I was wrong for what I said next, and I’m probably even as asshole for getting his hopes up, but it please remember that in the background of all of this is his mother yelling about not paying so much money and how they should be paying her kid for feeding the animals since “he’s doing their job”. I just... I couldn’t help it, if you ever read this, kid, I’m sorry for getting your hopes up, and for possibly getting you in trouble.
Me: “Well, it’s your birthday isn’t it? Happy birthday! You should go show that snake to your mom and ask her for one for today! I bet she’d let you have one if it’s for your birthday!”
Kid: “Really?! That’s a great idea!”
Me: “Yeah! Run and let her hold it!”
Yep... I hear it now. I’m definitely an asshole. Sorry again, kid.
Anyway, the kid takes off, with the employee yelling after him that he can’t take the snake out of the room and trying to chase him, but I signal for her to stop and tell her to let it slide this once, and I know I said it with a pretty mischievous smile, so maybe she thought it’d be funny too, or maybe she heard what was going on in the other room, idk, but she stopped and watched with me and, oh, was it glorious.
The kid runs full tilt towards his mom, snake outstretched to her, yelling “mom, look!!” over and over. Her yelling at the owner didn’t even seem to phase the kid. She looks over mid-rant and sees her kid running at her with this huge snake and loses. her. shit. Her yelling turns into a scream of terror and she turns the other way to run away from her kid and his newfound scaly friend, but remember that koi pond I mentioned earlier? Remember how it has the bridge going over it to cross into the fish room? Yeah, she missed the bridge.
SPLASH!!! She goes face first into the pond, purse and phone and all, fish immediately scattering everywhere in fear, but some coming back to investigate the splashing water just as fast as they’d ran. It was amazing. She was thrashing around trying to grab a handhold (I think the pond was only like 4 feet deep or something, she probably could’ve just stood up), screaming the entire time because she was now surrounded by harmless, curious koi, which seemed to be a completely new hell for her.
Anyway, after getting out and yelling at her kid to put the snake down, and yelling at the owner about suing them for all they’re worth, and just yelling in general, a very wet Karen and her kid left the store, and it was a little bit quieter, but not much, we were all almost crying from laughter. Not much happened after that, though after learning it was my plan I did get 2lbs of live rocks for free (~$11) so I was happy, and went home to start working on setting up my tank. Now I know I was an asshole to use her kid against her like that, and I do feel bad for the kid, but honestly, I’d probably do the same thing again given the chance. I visited the store on Tuesday again and they said they hadn’t heard anything from Karen, so they’re probably in the clear, not that I think she’d have any grounds to sue on? Idk, I’m definitely not a lawyer. Anyway, thanks for reading of you made it this far!
TL;DR: Karen visits fish and reptile store, Karen yells at me, twice, Karen yells at owner, Karen’s kid has snake, Karen is afraid of snake, I talk kid into showing the snake to his mom, Karen runs straight into a koi pond.
submitted by Loken89 to entitledparents [link] [comments]

$DMTK - A potential multi-bagger over the next several years

Skin Cancers are among the most common types of cancer in the world. In 2021, there is estimated to be 106,110 positive cases of melanoma in the United States alone, with an estimated 7,180 deaths. This is less than 1% of all cases of skin cancer, yet the most lethal of them. Source: https://www.cancer.org/cancemelanoma-skin-canceabout/key-statistics.html
So what is so special about $DMTK, also known as Dermtech? https://dermtech.com/how-it-works/
Prior to Dermtech, all cases of melanoma were detected by incision into the mole presumed to be cancerous. They have replaced this method with a cheaper alternative, a $760 patch paid for by insurance. Ok, who gives a fuck if its cheaper. How much more accurate is it and can it detect melanoma earlier? The answer is yes. The patch, despite detecting earlier, spots melanoma with 99% accuracy vs the current 86% accurate biopsy method. This is because the earlier detection looks into the DNA and RNA for the cancer instead of the cellular level(10,000x smaller). Need another added bonus? This process can be done at home under a doctor's supervision. Once this company scales up, this would equate to 106,110 * $ 760 = $80.64 million in revenue per year in the United States alone ---Testing positive cases alone. If the data from the Dermtech link is accurate, again I'm no expert in skin cancers, 1/25 cases tested for melanoma is positive. This means the US melanoma detection market has approximate potential for them to reach $2.02 billion in revenue a year.
https://www.cancer.org/cancebasal-and-squamous-cell-skin-canceabout/key-statistics.html
This tech looks cool? Well, lets gamble on their developing tech. A patch to detect the #1 and #2 most common skin cancers. 3.3 million Americans a year make up 5.4 million of these cases a year as read in the link above. As can be seen, a patch to detect these cancers is also currently in development. I'm no doctor or cancer researcher, but I assume these patches should be similar to develop as their melanoma counterpart. So if this bet pays off and insurance again pays $760, with 3.3 million cases, you achieve $2.51 billion in revenue from just positive cases. It should be noted that this is medical so it could be years in development and I am uncertain when development would have started, but believe the melanoma patch provides a solid framework to start off of. They are also producing a patch to detect UV damage and I am uncertain how significant this would be.
Concerns and Risks:
  1. Despite claiming to be more accurate, the company claims it is more of step to be taken before biopsy and not a replacement of it. Makes sense until the product is more greatly proven in the real world.
  2. Company had just $1.36 million revenue (141% increase y/y) in the previous quarter. Makes sense, as it just passed development and needs to scale up manufacturing and trust in the field.
  3. Company is valued at $1.3 billion, went up 27% last 5 days and 41% in the last month. Possible short term losses, however, still a bargain for a long term bet.
  4. It is foolish to ignore the risk, however, the reward for the US market alone could be astounding once the scale up.

Position: 100 Shares at $44.23, Plan on holding Long Term
2/11/21 Edit: Seeking Alpha claims 3.5 to 4 million biopsies/year to test for melanoma in US... which would be a slight increase in revenue from the math written above. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4395740-dermtech-stickers-to-diagnose-cancer
This also shows their luminate patch to potentially be their biggest cash cow with the carcinoma patch slightly behind creating over 10 billion in potential revenue a year - in the US alone
tldr;
submitted by jcb5858 to wallstreetbetsOGs [link] [comments]

I'm a Coward, so I wanted Your opinions

Hello,
I've been a librarian since I came out of college, which is going on 10 years now. I was mainly hired because I had attended the library and volunteered there since I was 7 years old and with it being a small library in a small town it was fine and all I need was to know how everything worked. The children's librarian always took care of me, even when my mom had to take care of my grandparents. But I've grown since then, so has she. She became director, I began full time. I attended additional classes to expand so on so forth.
Becoming an adult and more of an employee you get a different vision I guess. And with the addition of a new children's librarian and someone younger and new on the library board, I began to see the librarian who became a second mother to me in a whole different light. I don't know how to fully explain everything enough to make people not lose interest but I'll try to be blunt and quick.
She had become the director from being the children's librarian - the new one, who I have bonded with instantly became more popular. Which the director hated. If the children's librarian stepped a little out of line in her eyes she would be reprimanded. If she went to the mayor or city manager with questions of the building or something else that could be important. The director would chew her out and threaten to fire her while the next second coming off condescendingly sweet. But forbade us both from talking to any of the higher-ups unless she's "in a coma" verbatim.
She loathed the new board member. She questioned where some of the money went, where were the receipts...why are you paying an IT guy that never comes in monthly - there are broken computers that's been out for months. The WIFI was supposed to be fixed 5 years ago why hasn't it. I learned but haven't told anyone that besides giving it to a different board member, the director has been skimming money from our petty cash. Which shocked me on some level. I was banned from doing the accounts several years earlier when I asked about missing money that had been used to buy her church easter decorations.
But I liked the new board member. She is younger than all of us at 23 - she blunt and to the point and takes no-nonsense. But that's why I liked her. Let's just do our job and be done with it. Well, on to why I'm on here asking. This Thursday we had a board meeting. We went over the previous minutes from Dec. which included how they voted to give us bonuses. And on the paper were everyone's full names on who voted yes or no for the director.
The secretary on the board who's been on the board for years, who I thought was always so nice until a few months ago said she had always put the names down on who voted. I've never attended meetings until last year and didn't know for sure but looking at the previous minutes - no, no she never did that. The young member was upset and apparently spoke to her about it after we had left. Well, turns out the older member ran back into the library and called the cops. As far as I know from the outside cameras there was no blowout just a push and a run inside. But since this was intervened by law, the board and director are now able to throw her out of the library board.
Which is what the director had wanted. Somehow it feels too convenient and like a setup. I haven't seen my director today but I know when I see her next she's going to be incredulous or happy and ask me can I believe it. I've always been a believer since all this to keep my head down, be a good dog and stay quiet, get paid, and go home. But this...it's worse than being back in junior high. Grown adults being this scornful and petty. I know I'll want to say yes, yes I can believe it, and I bet you're happy.
But should I? What is the penalty for this if so many people are involved? It's like conspiratorial with how they all work together, and I really don't want to lose my job especially at this moment while the country is in crisis. But isn't it wrong to sit back when I know so much more is going on? All the above just skimming the surface, is it worth my job when others are being so affected and others are profiting? I'm just now sure what to do, and I know it's silly to say probably. But it makes you paranoid. Say nothing, see nothing attitude because I don't know who is reporting back to the director. The same one who used to take care of me, and is still good to me while awful to anyone who questions her. I just don't know anymore. It feels morally wrong, but....it's such a hard decision for me and I'm not a confrontational type of person. So please any remarks, comments, advice, or suggestions will be immensely appreciated.

Thank You to all that Read This
submitted by totalfanfreak2012 to Libraries [link] [comments]

This isn't about the money anymore... Why We HOLD.

In 2003, my family moved to the US at the prospect of a better life for my brother and I. My dad (born in the US) earned good money from his business back in our home country, and my mom was a chief executive assistant to the CEO for one of the largest overseas reinsurance companies at the time. We were well off. But they left those very cushy positions so that my younger brother and I could experience life in the US, with all of its opportunity, freedoms, and excitement.
When we moved to the US, things were a little rough at first, but we were ok. My dad's field wasn't in as much demand, but he had a stable job. My mother took up teaching because the reinsurance craze hadn't yet made its way to the States. And since they were prudent with their earnings, we did ok.
Then 2008 hit. I remember sitting in our living room one day, watching The Suite Life of Zach and Cody with my younger brother, overhearing my parents talk about possibly losing the house. I remember going to school terrified that we would end up homeless. That anxiety stayed with me for years afterwards, and it made school an absolute nightmare. A month later both my parents lost their jobs, and neither could find work. We were literally living off of their savings, with two kids, a car, and a mortgage to boot.
So in order to immediately continue supporting us, my dad left the US and went back to where we had just left. He worked 14 hour days, away from his family, to make sure that we had food on the table. My mom couldn't find work for years, so she "baby-sat" my friends during the summers at our house, which for me was fantastic. Later on I realized the humiliation that must have caused.
For 8 long years, my father wasn't in our lives. He was working his ass off to support us because of a financial collapse caused by these fuckers. Millions suffered, they got bailouts and bonuses. It directly affected my little brother so much that he got into some really bad stuff a few years ago. And I'm still in therapy to this day working through it all. My family was permanently fractured, and we haven't fully recovered. I don't know if we will.
This is no longer about the money. Like many have said, this is about sending a message now.
Dear Wall Street,
You fucked us into oblivion to pad your own pockets over a decade ago. Millions lost homes, livelihoods, pensions, life savings, and some even their lives. Not a single one of you was brought to justice for deliberately engineering this global disaster. Instead, you were given rewards. You were given praise. Some of you were even voted into office.
Now we're playing by your own rules. And we're beating you. I don't care one bit if your monstrous greed costs you billions. You made a bet, we called your bluff, and we aren't wavering.
This is for my family, and the millions of other families that lost so much more.
GME to the moon...
Sincerely,
We The People.
submitted by that_bermudian to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

An Ultimate Guide to Learning Hungarian (10 Steps to Conversational Confidence)

Hi guys,
About a year ago I wrote an elaborate article about how to learn Hungarian, step by step, from the very beginning. I just refined it based on my tutoring experience and another year of running a website on which I and my non-Hungarian partner help others master the language.
Thought I'd share the article here, and highlight the most important steps:

1. Master the Hungarian Alphabet and Pronunciation

There’s no way to get around knowing the alphabet extraordinarily well when you learn Hungarian. Seriously, don’t even consider learning anything else before you have a firm grasp of the alphabet and the Hungarian pronunciation. Put in this effort at the very beginning and it’ll save you tons of time and sweat later on.
It's a lot easier to learn the right pronunciation than to un-learn the wrong pronunciation. No (written) vocab is of use if people don't understand what you want to say. So nail these accents, digraphs, and the trigraph.🔨😉
We have a guide to the alphabet here.
I also embedded 3 videos here in the article that explain the consonants, vowels, and spelling rules, respectively.

2. Understand Agglutination, the Nature of the Language

By this, I don't mean nail all the suffixes and prefixes but understand what agglutination is and how it works.
We can just as well call agglutination the essence of the language – it’s one of those distinguishing elements that make Hungarian so Hungarian. Agglutination is related to glue and is the process to stick all those prefixes and suffixes to the beginnings and endings of the words, and thereby express time, location, relationships, and everything else grammar is for.
That’s how the insanely long words come about – instead of in our house (3 words in English), Hungarians say házunkban (house-our-in) and use one word only.
Other famous agglutinating languages are Turkish, Korean, and Japanese.
In contrast, English is an analytical language. Instead of gluing directly to the words, it uses helper words (e.g. prepositions) to convey relationships.
German and Spanish, on the other hand, are fusional languages and are characterized by their systems of declensions (changing the form of the words) and verb conjugations.
Here's how agglutination works.

3. Understand the Hungarian Word Order

Again, understand how it works in principle and you'll get why Hungarians deem your sentences wrong or weird even though they're technically correct.
Another factor that distinguishes Hungarian from other, more common languages is its topic-prominent sentence structure. In Hungarian, word order isn’t defined by regular sentence constituents (subject, verb, object) but rather by the speaker’s communicative intentions – what the speaker wants to emphasize.
You’ll often hear Hungarian has a flexible word order, but it’s not true. It just follows other rules than most languages and word order is about the topic in question, not about the grammatical ingredients of the sentence.
I explain this here with a specific example sentence of "I'm going to the doctor" and how switching around the words creates different meanings of the sentence in Hungarian.

4. Learn the Numbers

Numbers are everywhere and the most rational among us will argue you can explain the entire world with them. While I’m not sure about that, dealing with numbers is something you won’t find your way around easily. I’m not gonna lie, it won’t be the most fun activity of your Hungarian-journey but to understand how counting works in Hungarian is overall an easy win.
Important: A no-brainer, but I want to emphasize you should learn every number and its (fast!) pronunciation. Hungarian cashiers hold the world record for their speed of pronouncing 5-digit numbers and it’s really frustrating to not understand what someone says, even though technically you know all words.
Here’s how to learn the Hungarian numbers:
This article explains how to learn the Hungarian numbers in 9 straightforward steps, including their pronunciation, ordinals, and how to talk about time and dates.
The app Foreign Numbers is your best friend when you learn to understand the spoken numbers. It’s basically a listening comprehension trainer for numbers where you can define the range of numbers you want to practice. It’s smart, helpful, and free.

5. Prepare and Start Learning the 500 Most Frequent Hungarian Words

While you don’t need to know all of them before you move on, this is the vocab list you should start with.
Around 300 words make out 65% of all written material in English and with 2,000 words you have 80% of all conversations and texts covered. When it comes to learning Hungarian (or any language, really!) the Pareto Principle, aka Law of the Vital Few applies. The 500 most frequent Hungarian words are the ones you’ll encounter frequently – in written texts, conversations, movies, songs, books, you name it – they’re everywhere. If you focus on these first it’ll help you stay on track and see what is and isn’t essential.
The list of the 500 most frequent Hungarian words comes as a bonus with the PDF-version of the article.

6. Have Your References Ready

After you learned the alphabet and numbers, make sure you have the following Hungarian-learning ingredients close and add them to your shopping cart if necessary:
Additionally, I listed plenty of (mostly) free online resources here worth bookmarking, and here's another, elaborate list of Hungarian resources for various topics (pronunciation, vocab, grammar, teachers & tutors, etc.).

7. Build Your First Script

To get a basic feeling for the language and your first boost of confidence it’s important you have a basic conversational script ready. This means nothing more than to learn to talk a tiny bit about yourself and ask some basic questions.
After initial greetings, first conversations usually turn towards where you live and what you do. Just think about how you would typically introduce yourself in your mother tongue and translate this into Hungarian.
Here’s my personal quick introduction as an example, along with a few questions you can ask your conversational counterpart and possible answers.

8. Immerse, immerse, and immerse more

Useful immersion still is in a combination of listening, reading, and speaking. Research shows when we communicate we spend 45% listening, 30% speaking, 16% reading, and 9% writing.

How to immerse through listening
What you need for a useful listening experience is tons of native, natural material that comes with a transcript. A transcript is kind of the key to the kingdom – the way you’ll get through to everything you cannot grasp by pure listening. Native material paired with a transcript is like taking part in real-life conversations with a remote control which helps you to pause, rewind and repeat what’s been said – at a slower speed if necessary.
This cures the usual drawbacks of the disheartening listening practices most Hungarian learners do (like listen to the radio, watch a movie or listen to textbook conversations that don’t help in real life).
Along with a listening course (The Smart Hungarian Audio Course) you can find on our homepage we offer a free video + email course about the exact steps on how to create and work your way through your own listening material – it’s great if you’re not ready to spend money but have a little time on your hands.

How to immerse through reading
Hungarian is one of those languages in which you cannot ignore the grammar totally, even at the beginning. Due to its agglutinative nature described above every word you learn is subject to frequent change within a sentence. Reading will help you understand how all those suffixes and prefixes work.
What to read, however, now that news pieces and children’s books are out of the way?
Our tip: Read something you’re genuinely interested in.
Material that engages and excites you is crucial for language-learning. If you don’t like what you read you’ll never stick to your reading habit.
Instead of complicated news pieces, read a Hungarian blog you’d also read in your own language. Here’s our comprehensive list. The next time you want to read up on something, try to Google it in Hungarian and see where it takes you.
It’s also essential to always listen to what you read. No new word or grammar rule will be of use if people don’t understand what you say, and vice versa.
Unfortunately, we didn’t come across the perfect Hungarian reading material yet – one which consists of the most important words comes with an audiobook and a translation…
… that’s why we created our own.😉
Our Smart Hungarian Short Stories is a course that teaches Hungarian through the magic of story. You can find a link to it on our webpage and in the article.
In it, 8 short stories of various genres become the course syllabus. The vocabulary and grammar you learn are based on the gripping content you read.

9. Learn Vocabulary - The Right Way

we recommend you start to learn vocabulary (apart from the 500 most frequent words mentioned above which you learn parallelly) only after you started (and based on) your immersion practice. This way, you’ll avoid learning irrelevant vocabulary you’ll never use and learn all vocabulary as applied in real life.
I saw many Hungarian-learners start out by learning various word lists (greetings, animals, or even home appliances) and become frustrated, as they couldn’t apply what they have learned in real-life conversations.
After you tackled a spoken conversation or an exciting story you’ll be left with plenty of new words and expressions. It’s tempting to start hammering them all into your brain, but there’s a more effective and sophisticated way to do this:
Learn vocabulary based on your personal needs and goals
No one else but you can make the decision of which words to actually learn. No app, vocabulary book, or even frequency list can tell you exactly what you need to achieve your Hungarian-learning goals.
While it’s tempting to be hyper-motivated and squeeze as many words into your brain as possible you’re much better off if you focus on what is important for YOU and your learning.
This is easier said than done. Often, we simply don't know which words are essential and which aren’t – as everything can seem both very important and unimportant at the same time.
Here are a few guidelines for which words to learn from an audio conversation or the reading material of your choice, including an example of a word list and how to decide what to learn from it.

How to learn vocabulary - about the Spaced Repetition System (SRS)
You’ve probably been told in order to remember something you’ll need to repeat it as often as possible. This rote repetition mindset is what led many of us frenetically to read study material again and again before a test at school or university. While an all-nighter filled with repetition sessions definitely helps to save the day and pass the exam, there seems to be something in the air that made us forget every single thing we’ve learned after handing in the test.
The lesson? Rote repetition is good to pass university exams. However, it’s terrible for language learning, as it’s useless for your long-term memory.
Spaced repetition is the opposite of rote repetition. Instead of drilling something by force, you can consider it a way gentler (and more efficient!) approach to learning. With a spaced repetition system you’ll recall your vocabulary right before you’re most likely to forget it. The repetition occurs at pre-determined intervals that get bigger and bigger as time passes. Answering why exactly spaced repetition works would go beyond the scope of this article and tap into the world of neuroscience, but it’s a method polyglots swear by for decades.

Anki as the language-learners’ best tool for using the Spaced Repetition System:
The terms Spaced Repetition System and Anki go hand in hand.
In short: Making vocabulary more memorable by involving your senses and via using spaced repetition is your best bet for learning vocabulary. To apply this method we suggest using Anki, as it offers the most room and opportunities for customization and the maximization of your learning efficiency.
Here are some resources to starting out with Anki.
The Anki Online Manual including some video tutorials about the basics such as:
The Anki subreddit is also a great community of 65k learners.

Emotions and your senses as the beating heart of vocab-learning
Vocabulary connected to memories with all your senses involved is a lot more memorable.
That's why most people can easily recall Egészségedre! ("Cheers!" ) but have trouble with simpler words. They associate positive emotions, like the fun of a Budapest-pub crawl or drinking with their Hungarian friends with the word.
Here are three actionable steps you can take instantly to make your flashcards more memorable (scroll down a little!).

10. Practice speaking – it’s time to get real

First, I want to dispel the myth that you have to be or live in Hungary to practice speaking the language, as this is plain BS. Since you read this guide, chances are you have internet access and this is all you need to speak any language you want, anytime, from anywhere.
Online video calls such as Skype enable us to do this. The only questions are where to look for conversation partners, what kind of conversation partner to look for, and how to practice with a conversation partner in the most efficient way.
The right Hungarian conversation partner for you
You have three options: To practice with a tandem language partner, a tutor, or a proper Hungarian teacher. Both of these options have their pros and cons.
Tandem partners are usually free but the exchange relies on its mutuality. This means your language partner wants to practice your mother tongue with you as well. Since your partner doesn’t have all the skills that require teaching a language, designing your progress here is mostly up to you if you want to make the most of your practice. Also, prepare your language tandem mostly won’t be able to answer all your questions regarding specific grammar rules or even vocabulary. This means you’ll probably have to do a lot of extra work after the exchanges.
If you don’t want to spend money and don’t mind giving back by helping with your mother tongue and are a structured person who doesn’t need much hand-holding, a tandem partner is a great solution.
Conversing with a tutor usually has a fee lower than learning with a teacher. Tutors have experience teaching the language and are able to answer most of your questions. They don’t hold a teaching degree, however, so a large part of structuring and topic design will still be up to you and your efforts.
If you're ready to spend a little money, are ready to look some things up for yourself but prefer a little structure and guidance, and don’t want to teach your own language yourself, a language tutor is what you want.
Practicing with a teacher costs money (but has become very affordable!) and the focus will be solely on you and your learning progress. A teacher will most likely have a certain kind of syllabus, will design the lessons according to your level, and will be able to answer all the questions you have regarding the language.
If you want structure, guidance immediate answers and are ready to spend money, a language teacher will work best for you.
Here's how to find teachers, tutors, and language partners (scroll down a little).

How to make the most of your lessons
Before every lesson, it’s important you know what you want to get out of it. Maybe you want to perfect talking about yourself or maybe there’s something in the natural conversational audio that you want to dive deeper into. Perhaps you want to learn to talk business, talk about skiing, hiking, or the last book you read. Whatever it is – make it relevant to you. Don’t talk about things you won’t encounter in real life.
Make sure you have all your necessary references open during the conversation: an online dictionary, a relevant word list for your topic, Google Translate or whatever you find helpful.
Your main goal should be to not switch to English; to simply eliminate that option. Your conversations with your language partners should come as close to real-life, full-on Hungarian conversations as humanely possible.

What about real-life conversations?
Have them, whenever you can. Following this guide isn’t about shielding yourself from practicing Hungarian IRL. It’s rather a more structured approach to reach your goal. We saw learners solely rely on textbooks and others solely rely on becoming streetsmart and just picking it up on the side via daily conversations with friends and family – none of them worked. That’s the reason I wrote this guide – to provide you with more structure and show you what works instead.

It’s time!

Learning Hungarian (or any language) is a rewarding, enriching, and fun adventure and it’s important you perceive it that way. It’s a big project and requires work but so do all good things in life.

I'm curious about what you think of this guide and would love to read about your experiences.

Happy learning - jó tanulást!💚🇭🇺
submitted by catchbudapest to hungarian [link] [comments]

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