Biggest Over and Underperformers of the 2020 NFL Season
Overperformer: Miami Dolphins (O/U 6 wins, actual 10-5)
The Dolphins are the story of the season, having essentially put a rebuild in motion in record time. Miami, which was projected to go winless just last season, finished its 2019 campaign strong by denying New England a first round bye, took a quarterback in Tua, then handed him the reins in Week 8. Flores's no name defense is one of the top units in the league, with Xavien Howard leading the league in interceptions, and they control their own playoff destiny -- Win at Buffalo and they're in. It's a lot earlier than anyone expected them to be in contention, even if they have the lowest ceiling of the AFC's five ten-win teams entering Week 17.
Underperformer: Dallas Cowboys (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)
You can't totally blame Dallas for their woes given Dak Prescott's season-ending injury. The team has taken its sweet time finding its groove under Andy Dalton, looking totally lost without Dak putting up record numbers on offense in the first several weeks. Mike McCarthy has also made some puzzling decisions, such as the fake punt against Washington where a receiver ran twenty yards behind the line of scrimmage on a 4th and long deep within their own territory. Despite all that, they still have a chance to win a historically terrible NFC East with a win vs the Giants and a Philadelphia win against a quarterback-challenged Washington Football Team.
Overperformer: Justin Herbert (Chargers O/U 7.5 wins, actual 6-9)
Don't get me wrong. The Chargers' season is terrible and Anthony Lynn deserves to be fired. But Herbert was been the biggest surprise of the 2020 NFL draft, being third off the board, and he is the reason this team has six wins. He was outplaying first overall pick Joe Burrow even before the latter's season-ending injury, passing Andrew Luck's total touchdown record, and looks damn comfortable doing it. He was thrown right into the fire, without first team reps in Week 2, and took the defending champion Chiefs to overtime. Outside of a 45-0 dismantling by the Patriots on special teams, Herbert and his Chargers have only lost one game by more than 1 score. Denver and Las Vegas better watch out - there are two incredible signal callers in the AFC West now.
Underperformer: New England Patriots (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)
New England lost its star quarterback of twenty years this season and it looked like its offense regressed by forty. Former MVP Cam Newton has twice as many picks as he does passing touchdowns and he only has ten interceptions. It's not unusual to tune in to a Patriots game and see a statline of less than 75 yards passing. It's a testament that Bill Belichick has dragged this roster to a 6-9 record, but the Patriots' reign of terror in the AFC East - 19 consecutive winning seasons, 11 consecutive division titles, 8 consecutive AFC championship appearances - is over, and a 38-9 pantsing by Josh Allen and crew on Monday confirmed it.
Overperformer: The Texans' draft picks (Houston O/U 8 wins, actual 4-11)
The Dolphins are in playoff contention and may walk into the off-season with the third overall pick in the NFL draft. How? Bill O'Brien, that's how. The former Texan dictator sent Miami two first round picks for the rights to sign Laremy Tunsil to a back-breaking deal, before he was fired after starting 0-4. Houston is 4-11, worse than all of the NFC East, JJ Watt is ripping into his teammates for not playing hard enough, and unlike every other team, their fans have no high draft picks for consolation. Thanks BoB.
Underperformer: Drew Lock (Denver O/U 7.5 wins, actual 5-10)
Lock had much hype going into the off-season by going 4-1 as a starter on a team that finished 7-9 last year, but he hasn't proven that he is the QB1 Elway is looking for. Yes, Denver had that terrible game where a practice squad WR started at QB, and Brett Rypien did come in relief of Lock early in the season, but in a division where Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are some of the league's best signal callers, and Derek Carr is a plenty serviceable quarterback, there isn't much hope this Denver offense can come anywhere close to the heights it reached with Manning under center.
Overperformer: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)
Aaron Rodgers is back in MVP form and the Packers are looking like Super Bowl favorites. Rodgers rediscovered the fun in football during the off-season, one in which his front office traded up to select his potential replacement. He has 44 touchdowns to just 5 picks, and Green Bay looks to be in position to make sure the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will run through snowy Lambeau Field. And why is that so important? In a crucial test of their defense against Tennessee, who have a snowplow named Derrick Henry at running back, the Packers dismantled the Titans at home, holding the league's previously top ranked offense to 14 points, all while Rodgers locked up his case for league MVP by throwing for four touchdowns.
Underperformer: Bruce Arians (Tampa O/U 9.5 wins, actual 10-5)
Even if the Bucs lose to the Falcons this week, Bruce Arians and Tom Brady will still surpass their betting odds and return this franchise to the postseason for the first time since 2007. But Arians and Brady have constantly squabbled over the course of the season, and it's clear Arians is no Belichick. The Tampa OL cannot give the 43 year old Brady the time he needs to execute all the dropbacks in Arians's vertical scheme, and it's limited this Buccaneers offense against blitz heavy teams like the Saints and Giants. When it's working, it's beautiful, like this week's 47-7 spanking of the Lions, but Arians needs to adjust his game plan against better teams, as proven in back to back losses against the Rams and Chiefs.
Overperformer: Kyle Shanahan (SF O/U 10.5, actual 6-9)
The Niners are out of the playoffs following a Super Bowl run. How is Shanahan overperforming? He has his squad competing despite a historical bout of injury luck, losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo, D Linemen Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas to season ending injuries, and RB Raheem Mostert and TE George Kittle were out significant playing time throughout the season. On top of that, COVID regulations made the Niners homeless, sending them to Arizona to close the regular season. But the Niners are competitive week in and week out, having embarrassed Kyler Murray and the Cardinals at their own home despite Robbie Gould missing three field goals.
Underperformer: Jared Goff (Rams O/U 8.5 wins, actual 9-6)
The Rams' running game is having a rebound year after cutting Todd Gurley, with breakout stars Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson. Sean McVay's new D coordinator has the Rams defense rolling as a top 10 unit. But Jared Goff has now lost two straight, leads the league in turnovers since the 2019 season, and they would probably be out of the playoffs if they hadn't been scheduled to play the NFC East this year and swept them. Goff looked especially poor in a 23-20 loss to the previously winless Jets, and actual human beings are now debating whether John Wolford, a man without any NFL starts to his name and is the backup on the depth chart for a reason, might be the better quarterback anyway after Goff broke his thumb in a demoralizing loss to the Seahawks that threatens to knock them out of the postseason entirely.
Overperformer: Josh Allen (Buffalo O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)
The Bills are division champions for the first time in 25 years, and Allen has emerged as a dark horse MVP candidate in his third year. He has legitimately matured as a signal caller, having been drafted with all the talent in the world locked behind some raw mechanics. Credit to the Buffalo staff, who have managed to perform the rare feat of fixing a quarterback's accuracy longer after most deemed feasible, and have surrounded him with the weapons he needs to succeed. Stefon Diggs was a plug-and-play fit into OC Brian Daboll's offense, while Cole Beasley is quietly having a monster year. If they can give him a true running game, this Buffalo team will be an AFC playoff contender for years to come.
Underperformer: Adam Gase (Jets O/U 6.5 wins, actual 2-13)
Adam Gase has been bailed out from being remembered as part of an exclusive group of coaches who led a winless campaign, but he remains a terrible head coach who no team should ever want. The Jets squad he fielded had Sam Darnold regressing in his third year, and he steadfastly refused to make adjustments to make his team's life easier. And he had the audacity to make his fans suffer thirteen straight losses without even giving them the number one overall pick, which would have gifted them one of the most talented quarterbacks to ever come out of college.
Overperformer: Cleveland Browns (O/U 8.5 wins, actual 10-5)
While the Browns have technically not clinched a playoff berth yet in a historically deep AFC wild card scramble, Kevin Stefanski has his Browns rolling and playing spectacular ball, including in a game-of-the-year candidate 47-42 loss at Baltimore, and they are in control of their own playoff destiny. Their loss to the Jets last week was demoralizing, but Baker Mayfield also had no receivers after they were ruled out because of contract tracing protocols. This weekend, the Browns are in a win-and-in scenario against a Steelers team with nothing to play for, so barring another COVID-related debacle or a very Browns-esque collapse, they are playoff-bound for the first time since 2002.
Underperformer: Nick Foles (Chicago O/U 8 wins, actual 8-7)
Chicago remains in control of their playoff destiny with a win-and-in scenario at Soldier Field this weekend, but it's tough to argue Nick Foles hasn't underperformed this season. He was brought in to light a fire under Trubisky's bum, which, while it has certainly happened the last few weeks and has brought rumors of a contract extension for the latter, might also have been come from Mitch playing against some terrible defenses. More concerningly for Foles, he was named starter and led the Bears to the cusp of playoff elimination after losing six straight amidst a 5-1 start, playing such poor ball that head coach Matt Nagy surrendered playcalling duties to his offensive coordinator. He twice threw for no touchdowns in a six-week span before he lost his job to Trubisky after an injury.
NFL Power Rankings heading into the final three weeks of the 2020 season:
https://preview.redd.it/qka6fzednt561.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a5f0ec3f783b413ce75d5ecce3361f6b05eff91 As crazy as this sounds, we are only three weeks away from the NFL playoffs and the picture is starting to manifest itself. In this breakdown I’m ranking all 32 teams and I use different tiers to describe how I feel about them. While there are plenty of statistics to support the cases I want to make for them, I tried to limit those to a smaller degree, because at this point of the season it’s all about what I have learned from studying them every week and what my eyes tell me. Here we go:
Top-tier:
These are the four truly complete teams. You can find concerns if you nit-pick, but I don’t think there is an obvious weakness for any of them at this stage. The top three arguably have the three best quarterbacks in the NFL, while the other two have elite offensive play-callers and top five defenses. Football is all about matchups, so they could have a bad draw, but in general I think they are all winning at least one playoff game and have a legitimate shot to go the distance. 1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) You can find those little flaws if you are looking for them, but to me the Chiefs are still clearly the number one team in the league. They can lack some urgency at times and we have seen them let teams hang around for multiple weeks now, with no multiple-score wins since their week ten bye. However, even when they are down in games, you know at some point they will turn it on and make a run, like scoring 30 straight in 18 minutes last week at Miami. And if you give Patrick Mahomes the ball at the end of the game, whether you’re up or down, they will finish the job. Kansas City still number one in point differential for the season (+9.4) and until last week they were tied with Pittsburgh for number one in turnover margin (now +8). I think there’s about two teams in each conference that could make for exciting matchups against them, but I don’t think anybody is beating the Chiefs on a neutral field – and the playoffs will probably go through Arrowhead. 2. Green Bay Packers (10-3) Aaron Rodgers is my choice MVP right now. He has been absolutely phenomenal, with only one blemish to his record and that was the only time the Packers really didn’t show up, back in week six at Tampa Bay. The chemistry between Rodgers and Davante Adams is unbelievable, but that running back duo is phenomenal as well and the offensive line has been one of the most consistent ones in all of football. Plus, Matt LaFleur has turned himself into one of the top offensive play-callers in the game. Defensively, my one big issue was their interior front, which has been vulnerable to the run game, and that’s the one area you can still question, but since Dalvin Cook had that monster game against them, they have held opponents to under 100 yards rushing on average over these past six weeks. You can argue that the Saints are a little more complete in terms of NFC opponents, but the difference in quarterback play is substantial and they are becoming a better all-around squad. 3. Buffalo Bills (10-3) Where are the people who told me Josh Allen will absolutely not be an MVP candidate at the end of the season? After Mahomes and Rodgers there is no quarterback who you can tell me has clearly been better than him. While the run game hasn’t been very consistent, I like the combination of Moss & Singletary, while Allen is a major factor in that area as well, and Brian Daboll understands when he is in matchups where he can utilize it. Their defense has really come along as well, after they had some issues early on – especially defending the run, holding opponents to just 18.7 points since their bye three weeks ago – and I believe that has something to do with Sean McDermott getting more involved in the defensive game-planning. They do a tremendous job of taking away staples of the opposing team’s passing game and over this three-game stretch since their bye they have given up just under 70 yards rushing on average. 4. New Orleans Saints (10-3) This is actually the one team with a real question mark potentially, because we just don’t know for sure where Drew Brees is in his recovery and he hasn’t been great this season either way. However, assuming he is fine for their playoff run and they can win at least one more game to hold on to the division title, they are a very complete team that wins at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Sean Peyton is as good an offensive game-designer and team motivator as we have in the league and while that loss in Philadelphia last Sunday is obviously on our minds, let’s not forget that they had won nine straight before that. Now, you can argue that they have faced some clearly inferior teams, but they have won close and they have blown teams out. Since their week six bye, this past Sunday was their first time of not reaching 100 rushing yards (over 150 on average), while their defense has been phenomenal. What it really comes down to is that until their trip to Philly, their quarterbacks had not been sacked more than the opposing team’s since their early bye and they were recording 2.5 more sacks on a weekly basis. However, they are still the most penalized team in the league (843 yards)
Contenders:
These are all very good teams that have shown the ability to beat anybody in this tier or the one above it, but I don’t quite put them on that same elite level as the top four, because there is one clear weakness with them. Whether it may be a specific part like the pass-rush or skill-position talent, not having a schematic advantage in most weeks (at least on one side of the ball) or even team chemistry. 5. Los Angeles Rams (9-4) The only way you can make this team look bad is if you can mostly take away the run game, the boots and screens that mask Jared Goff, because we have seen that if you force him to be a drop-back passer and read the field, there are some issues. But just go back two weeks ago, when they played in Arizona – Sean McVay finds ways to move the pocket and he has become more diverse this season with his run schemes, rather than being a zone-only run team. The Rams have two of the most underrated receivers in the league, I like how they have used much more 12 personnel this season and making rookie Cam Akers their featured back is already paying big dividends. The star of the show however has been the defense, holding opponents to a league-low 4.6 yards per play and just 31 plays of 20+ yards. They have the best defensive lineman and the top corner in all of football, but it really has been the lesser-known commodities that have made the difference for them. Darious Williams as a phenomenal across Jalen Ramsey, rookie Jordan Fuller is a ball magnet and former first-round pick Leonard Floyd is turning his career around in L.A. 6. Seattle Seahawks (9-4) The Russell Wilson MVP run has completely disappeared when you look at the Vegas odds, but he is still having an excellent season, as he is on pace to complete 70 percent of his passes for the first time in his career and he has already reached a personal best 36 passing TDs. We have seen the turnovers ramp up and Seattle’s four losses have come in the games he has given it away multiple times, because they didn’t have much room for error because of their defense. The reason I have them this high is because they have seen more balance from them offensively, with an average of 124.6 rushing yards since their week six bye, and their defense has really made some strides. I know the two New York teams are in there, but since they got lit up by Josh Allen back in week nine, they have held opponents to just 16.2 points, without those major mess-ups and coming together as a unit. They are top ten in sacks (36) and make their opponents one-dimensional, holding them to just 3.9 yards per carry. 7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5) When I was referencing team chemistry in the intro for this tier, this is the squad that primarily made me mention it. Tampa Bay beat the Panthers and Raiders by over 20 points since then, but most of that came in the fourth quarter until which those games had been very pretty competitive, so their last truly complete performance came against the Packers all the way back in week six. They have questions about their offensive identity (no matter how much Bruce Arians is puffing his chest out after last week’s win), they have gone away from the run game in their losses and when they go really shotgun-heavy, their O-line has not looked the same in those one-on-ones. Their defense has shown moments of dominance, with a very dangerous pass-rush (second-highest pressure percentage at 27.8%) and two linebackers that can really fly around, but their corners have gotten torched at times and the really good offensive play-callers have been able to take advantage of some of the tendencies they have shown. 8. Baltimore Ravens (8-5) So many people said the Ravens were dead three weeks ago – they had the biggest COVID outbreak in the league, Lamar Jackson was getting criticized by the media and the defense was getting banged up. Now all of a sudden they are on track for a Wildcard spot, if they can just win out with a pretty soft schedule ahead and all they need is for one of the three other contenders in the AFC to lose at least one game. Things have not come as easy for Lamar as they did in his MVP season, but the real issue for this time is a lack of play-making outside the numbers and not enough creativity in the drop-back pass game altogether. They have gotten back to punching people in the mouth with the run game and I’m glad to see them make rookie J.K. Dobbins their top option out of the backfield. We have seen defenses give them trouble when they crowd the middle of the field, but if they can evolve a little bit in their perimeter passing attack and open up the field, they can create a lot of problems. Baltimore’s defense just gave up 42 points, but when that group is healthy, they have the potential to be a top-five unit, with an elite secondary. 9, Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2) This is obviously a lot lower than where they would have been two weeks ago, when they were still the only undefeated team in the league and other than Kansas City, you probably couldn’t have put anybody else above them. However, they have now lost back-to-back games – in fairness those two teams will likely go to the playoffs – and their offense has been highly concerning. Over the second half of their season, they have reached 100 rushing yards just once and average just 54.3 yards on the ground over that stretch, plus through the air everybody is all over the quick game and the Steelers rarely attack beyond the sticks, other than trying to draw some pass interference calls on shots outside the numbers. With that being said, while drops have been a major issue recently, they have a dynamic receiving corp and while they have lost a couple of pieces to injury, their defense is still number one in points allowed, sacks (45) and pressure percentage (33.5%) , takeaways (25) and therefore also turnover differential (+11). 10. Cleveland Browns (9-4) If the Browns at least win two of their final three games – a two-week trip to face the New York teams and hosting the Steelers, who could have nothing to play for in the season finale – they are pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs (as long as BAL, MIA, TEN & IND don’t all win out). I know they actually have a point differential of -20 on the season, but those 63 combined points they lost by in blowout fashion against the Ravens and Steelers early on are a major factor in that and if you look at their three matchups before this, they were actually winning big until opposing teams somehow added points late. Cleveland has the number three rushing offense (156.2 yards per game) with the premiere RB duo in the league, but they are still tied for fifth-most plays of 20+ yards (55) and Baker Mayfield arguably just played the two best games of his pro career these last couple of weeks. They can go 22 personnel and pound you with the run, but then also take play-action shots off it and then also create issues from empty sets. And until they had their number one corner Denzel Ward in the lineup, they were at least average in every meaningful statistical category, with a phenomenal D-line. 11. Tennessee Titans (9-4) I brought this up in my week 14 recap – Derrick Henry has a chance to break the single-season rushing record, if he can average 191 yards on the ground over these last three games, which all feature bottom-five run defenses arguably (DET, GB & HOU). Of course Henry is the heartbeat of the Tennessee offense, but also big plays, as only five teams have recorded more plays of 20+ yards (53), despite also only five teams having thrown the ball less. No team is better at getting chunks off play-action, with A.J. Brown and Corey Davis routinely catching deep crossers and in-breaking routes behind the linebackers. And Ryan Tannehill is having an excellent season in general, while we have seen him execute at a really high level with little time on the clock and make things happen when they needed to put the ball in his hands. The Titans are tied with Green Bay for the fewest turnovers committed in the league at nine – and a third of those came against Cleveland, where they got steamrolled in the first half before ultimately cutting the lead to one touchdown. The defense is concerning part, with a league-low 14 sacks on the season and the highest third-down percentage allowed (52.2%), while they have had some bad performances from their special teams. 12. Indianapolis Colts (9-4) The Colts surprisingly are just outside the top ten in scoring defense (23.0 points per game), but by far their worst performance came without their best defensive player DeForest Buckner against the Titans a couple of weeks ago, and they are outstanding in second halves, surrendering just 7.8 points on average. Their front-seven if phenomenal and they have guys in the secondary who can take away the ball, while having missed just 62 tackles all season long (second-fewest) and scored four touchdowns themselves (most). What I really like about the Colts is how much they improved in the run game, where they have gone from a surprisingly bad start to now have rookie Jonathan Taylor really becoming their workhorse, averaging 110 yards and six yards per carry over these last three games. And with Philip Rivers taking better care of the ball and delivering big throws on third downs, they have now had their best three-game scoring run (34.7) and they are tied for second in turnover differential on the season at +10. And only two teams have a better difference between their starting drives and the ones of their opponents at +5.
Fringe playoff teams:
None of these teams have a playoff spot secured and if my calculations are correct, only two of them control their own destiny, in terms of making the cut if they win out, regardless of what else happens around the league. And only two of them will ultimately make it most likely. None of these squads blow you away. They all have bad losses on their resume and there are multiple areas that has disappointed at times. 13. Miami Dolphins (8-5) The Dolphins came a little short from pulling off a comeback against the Chiefs this past Sunday after KC had that big run, and that most likely takes them out of the race for the AFC East, but they still control their own playoff destiny as far as I can tell. The Miami defense has been incredible. They are either first or second in points allowed (18.8), takeaways (25) and third-down percentage (33.1). Their coaching staff does an excellent job of teaching and game-planning for specific matchups. Offensively, injuries have been a story for them pretty much all season long, while the switch to Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback has certainly been in character with the horizontal passing attack from OC Chan Gailey. The big issue for them is the lack of explosive plays – only the Bengals (32) have less than their 34 plays of 20+ yards. And while they do run the ball at an middle-of-the-pack rate, they are averaging a league-low 3.6 yards per carry. That’s why they can’t really control the pace of games but also not be as dynamic scoring to keep up with the high-flying offenses. Still, before their loss to Kansas City on Sunday, they had won seven of their last eight and they are sixth in point differential with +6.5 14. Arizona Cardinals (7-6) This team is a little tough to figure out where to put. Everybody loved them when they were 6-3, but then then were a Hail Mary against Buffalo away from losing five straight and then they completely dominate the Giants, who were getting hyped up a week ago. In theory, they have one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league, they have shown the ability to run the ball effectively, I like some of the things Vance Joseph does schematically on defense and some of their young players on that side of that ball have really come in their own. Unfortunately, Kliff Kingsbury’s offense leaves me wanting to see more, with opposing teams being able to just man up and anticipate passing concepts, while their 13th-ranked scoring defense only looks as good on paper as they do because they have feasted in their matchup versus three NFC East teams and the Jets (10.5 PPG in those matchups). They control their own destiny and could be lucky if their one true remaining test comes against the Rams in week 17, when those guys have nothing to play for potentially, but if they make it, I’m worried about what happens when the really well-coached NFC teams can solely focus on them. 15. Washington Football Team (6-7) Over their current four-game winning streak (second-longest active one to Kansas City), Washington leads all teams in point differential at +12.5 and the only teams that are actually close are the Saints and Seahawks, who had blowout wins over the QB-less Broncos and winless Jets respectively during that stretch. They have to hope that rookie RB Antonio Gibson can return without much of an issue from his turf toe, because the offense is really all about him and their one stud receiver Terry McLaurin. They are certainly limited in the pass game, with by far their best option at quarterback being somebody who couldn’t even walk properly at the start of the calendar year, who doesn’t really create out of structure anyway. At the same time, they just scored 23 points and won a game without an offensive touchdown this past Sunday. Their defensive line is absolutely loaded with first-round talent and they have no fear of attacking patterns and trying to take away easy yardage against the pass. That’s why they are tied for third-fewest yards allowed per play (5.0) and they are sixth in points allowed despite their bad start to the season (21.2). 16. New England Patriots (6-7) These Patriots are holding on for dear life here. They are not very talented. Cam Newton has not looked the same since missing time with COVID early on in the season, with more than 180 passing yards just three times on the year, none of their receivers would be more than a WR3 on teams with average pass-catching groups and if we can agree that Miami wasn’t who they are now in the season-opener, the only good defense they have score over 20 points against all season was the Ravens – and they were really banged up coming into that matchup. They still have one of the top secondaries in the league and are incredibly well-coached of course on that side of the ball, but they lack beef on the defensive interior, which has them as a bottom-ten run defense, and they have suffered blowout losses to elite offensive play-callers like Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. They are once again the least penalized team in the league (just 442 yards against) and they destroyed the Chargers 45-0 just two weeks ago, in large part because their special teams were so amazing and how much better their coaching was, but that’s not enough against great teams. 17. Las Vegas Raiders (7-6) This might be surprising to some people, but the Raiders are the only team in the league to score on at least half of their offensive drives. We have seen them beat opposing teams up with the run game, with a couple of 200-yard performances already this season, but they have almost gone 2-0 in shootouts against the Chiefs and Derek Carr has had his best season since making a run at the MVP award several years ago. Unfortunately, their defense has really only had a couple of good games. They are one of only three units to allow 30 points per game – and the other two are the Cowboys and Jets. And they also allow opponents to convert exactly half of their third downs (tied for third-highest). In college football-fashion, they have a few quality wins on their resume over the Saints, Chiefs and Browns – but they have fallen off dramatically recently. Over the last three weeks they have now lost by 37 to the Falcons, 17 to the Colts and they needed a miracle touchdown (and a really bad defensive call) to beat the winless Jets. 18. Minnesota Vikings (6-7) When you look at the numbers from Minnesota’s game against the Bucs, it almost doesn’t make sense that they lost by 12 points – ten first downs more and 18 minutes more time of possession. Their kicker Dan Bailey had a horrible showing, but special teams have been an issue all season long – only making a league-low two third of their FG attempts, untimely muffs and returns suffered. On paper the offense should be one of the best in the league, with a superstar running back, an outstanding receiver duo and Kirk Cousins capable of making big throws with the right pieces around him. Yet, if you take away the season-opener against Green Bay when most of it came in garbage time, they have only scored more than 30 points twice this season and their 22 giveaways are tied for fifth in the league. The defense has shown some improvement from their horrible 1-5 start, but they have nobody on the roster with more than 3.5 sacks at this point and their young corners have been taken advantage of routinely. I could see them win out potentially, but they still need some help to sneak into the playoffs.
Striving to reach .500:
While I believe about half of these teams have the potential to put together complete games and there is potential to good all-around, none of them have been able to actually do it for an extended stretch. For me one side of the ball has clearly held them back for most of the season and only one of them actually still has a chance to earn a winning record, while another one at best could finish a half game below .500 – but still somehow has an outside shot of winning their division. 19. San Francisco 49ers (5-8) One of the biggest disappointments of this 2020 season has been the 49ers. And it’s not really about their players messing up or anything like that, they have just been unlucky. No other team has put more players on injured reserve than San Francisco and it happened to key pieces. As brilliant as Kyle Shanahan I believe is and as well as that defense has played for the most part, somebody has to deliver the ball in the passing game and at some points those injuries will catch up to you. Nick Mullens has been rough to watch ever since taking over as the starter. They have gone 1-4 over that stretch and they have turned the ball over more than three times per game. Now only the Broncos have turned the ball over more than the Niners (25) on the season. And defensively I know elite quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen carved them up, but when you look at the rest of the schedule, it was their offensive turnovers and their special teams in one matchup in particular that has set put their own guys in a bad position. 20. New York Giants (5-8) Just a week ago it felt like EVERYBODY was jumping on the Giants bandwagon and it’s like everybody has gotten off even quicker. Daniel Jones could not move because of his hamstrings and the Cardinals were able to completely out for the run, while recording eight total sacks once they got Big Blue in obvious passing situations and turnovers setting Arizona up in the red-zone twice. New York still has a top-ten defense in my opinion, where they throw a lot of different looks at opponents and only the Rams have surrendered less plays of 20+ yards (39). Their offense is certainly more troubling to me, but unless Jalen Hurts looks like he did in his first career start going forward, Daniel Jones is the best quarterback in that division and until this past Sunday, the G-Men had gone for over 100 rushing yards in eight games and averaged 148.9 yards over that stretch. They are still the second-worst scoring offense in the league (18.3 points per game), but those numbers are heavily influenced by their 0-5 start. Joe Judge and his coaching staff have these guy on the right track and they have the season-sweep over Washington. So if they can win one more game than the Football Team over these final three weeks, they host a playoff game – but they have a tough finish ahead. 21. Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1) I think I would have originally had the Eagles five or six spots lower and in the tier below this one had I put out these rankings a week ago. So I’m glad I didn’t and waited to see what Jalen Hurts looked like in his first career start – and he was awesome. I didn’t understand the Saints’ defensive gameplan, but that team certainly had some juice with the switch under center, whether it’s the defense playing with their hair on fire or people like Alshon Jeffery even making big catches. Once again Philly has suffered a ton of injuries, especially on the O-line, but Hurts’ mobility can help out with that, if Miles Sanders has some space, he can be a dynamic player and all of a sudden Doug Pederson actually had a gameplan. Outside of their trip to Green Bay, the Eagles defense has been playing very well in recent weeks, with a hungry pass-rush and the back-seven aggressively coming upfield and punishing guys for touching the ball. At best, Philly can now finish 7-8-1, but as crazy as that sounds, if they win out, while Washington and the Giants at least lose one other game, the Eagles are your division champs. And what would be more NFC East or 2020 than that. 22. Denver Broncos (5-8) This is another tricky one. The Broncos started their season 0-3 with really tough games against the Titans, Steelers and Buccaneers. Since then they have gone 5-5 and played some really good football at times – wins over New England and Miami, a crazy comeback against the Chargers and playing the Chiefs close, plus one of those losses came when they didn’t have an actual quarterback on the roster. However, they also got blown their doors blow off by the Chiefs the first time around, the Raiders and the Saints (in that QB-less matchup). The big theme for this squad has been turnovers. They have given the ball away a league-high 29 times and they have forced the second-fewest turnovers (11), which makes their differential of -18 eight worse than any other team in the league. When you don’t convert your third downs offensively (only 37.6%) and allow big plays on defense (53 plays of 20+ yards), that is a problem. However, Drew Lock just played his best game as a pro and he has a lot of young talent around him catching passes, while they have averaged 127 rushing yards a game since their 0-3 start. And the defense has been getting after opposing quarterbacks – 32 sacks since then as well. 23. Chicago Bears (6-7) I don’t really like talking about the Bears anymore. When they started the season 5-1, I was among many to say they are not nearly as good as their record indicates – they lost six straight. When I put out my rankings of the top ten defenses about a month ago, I said they were the second-best unit in the league – they lay a complete egg and give up 41 points against the Packers and then pull a miracle in the wrong way to give away the Lions game and allow them to score 34. And then when I’m finally ready to fully write them off, they hold one of the hottest quarterbacks in football in Deshaun Watson to seven points and the offense finally wakes up in a get-right matchup against the Texans. I know they have faced poor defenses and he made some bad mistakes at Green Bay, but since Mitch Trubisky was inserted back into the lineup following their bye, they have averaged just over 30 points. And we know that defense can ball. When Akiem Hicks has been in the lineup, they have been elite or close to it in all areas. They could easily win at Minnesota and at Jacksonville and then we don’t know if the Packers have anything to play for when they come to Soldier Field in the season finale. So if that happens and Arizona just loses one game, they are most likely in the playoffs. Crazy. 24. Detroit Lions (5-8) A 5-8 record is not horrible and if they don’t blow that big lead to Chicago in the season-opener, they are well alive in the hunt for the NFC’s seven seed, with a win over Arizona and a chance to tie season-series with Minnesota. However, they are just looking to finish the year on a high note and make this look like a more desirable head coaching job. There is just nothing that really impresses you about the football team. They are bottom four in run offense and defense – so their opponents can always control the pace of the game. They are tied for the third-most yards per play allowed (6.0) and they have forced the third-fewest takeaways (12) – so there’s a heavy imbalance in big plays made between their defense and the opposing offense. And they are losing all the crucial situations when you compare their percentages with the ones of their opponents – minus 5.2% on third downs, 4.2% on fourth downs and 6.8% in red-zone scoring. Matt Stafford and Matt Prater have had moments of brilliance late in games, but as a team they just brought it enough on a weekly basis.
Already out of it:
The teams in this group have all been eliminated from playoff contention and show multiple issues. A couple of them have top ten quarterbacks this season in my book and I wouldn’t say any of them can’t win with who they have under center, but all five of them field bottom-half defenses and a couple of them just don’t know how to manage and win game at a high rate. 25. Carolina Panthers (4-9) This might be the best 4-9 team I have ever seen. Of course you can go back and look at times that have gotten hurt – and the Panthers have missed their best player in Christian McCaffrey – but in general they have been pretty healthy. Teddy Bridgewater has played the best football of his career under OC Joe Brady, they have a dangerous receiver trio, some of these young studs on defense have really shown up, like Brian Burns and Jeremy Chinn, and they have hung tough in pretty much every game all season long. They just haven’t been able to actually pull it off, with all but two of their nine losses being by one possession and those couple of matchups with the Bucs were competitive until the fourth quarter too. Matt Rhule has built a foundation in Carolina that will win him a lot of games sooner than rather and when you look at the rest of the NFC South, none of them have a long-term solution at quarterback and they will all face significant cap problems in the future. So bite the bullet here and maybe give it another year, because then this team is ready to take over that division. 26. Houston Texans (4-9) Man, I feel so bad for Deshaun Watson. That guy is an elite quarterback and with the way Bill O’Brien and the entire organization have conducted business, they probably cost him a chance to go to a Super Bowl potentially during his rookie contract. Hopefully this season is as bad as it’s going to get, because he has been the only real bright spot. The two obvious problems with this team – they can’t run the ball and their defense has been absolutely atrocious. They only have two runs of 20+ yards all season long and if you take their quarterback out of it, they are averaging a miniscule 3.5 yards per carry (would be worst in the league). And their defense is the only one that ranks bottom three in average yards allowed per pass (7.9) and run (5.0), while they are also the only unit with single-digit takeaways (eight) – and six of those came against the Jaguars and Lions. The only two times they have allowed less than 20 points came against Jacksonville in one of their matchups and then at Cleveland in the rain, when the final score was 10-7 for the Browns. So because of that, only the Jets have less time of possession (27:10). When you look at their four wins on the season, it was all about Deshaun – and he almost got them one each over the top two teams in the AFC South, but he never touched the ball against the Titans and a bad snap from the opposing two-yard line cost them the Colts game. 27. Los Angeles Chargers (4-9) I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a team with worse coaching than this one. When it comes to a lack of adjustments being made, disgusting time management, the amount of big leads this time has surrendered and so many other things. It has just been a joke. And I feel bad for the players, because Justin Herbert is having a phenomenal rookie season, most likely setting new marks in all the major categories, Keenan Allen has been incredible and Joey Bosa has been terrorizing opposing backfields when healthy. Yet, the only reason they lost last week is because they faced another team that has no freaking idea of how to win a game late and Matt Ryan gifted them a chance to pull it off in the end. When you look at total yards, explosive plays all kinds of statistics, it almost makes no sense. The craziest number I can bring up for this team is that if you take out their embarrassing 45-0 debacle against the Patriots, they have scored just 1.5 less than their opponents – and they are 4-9. I’m so annoyed that Herbert’s rookie season will be kind of forgotten because of how bad the team was, but I just hope they put a competent coaching staff around him and they can finally break this curse they have been under as a franchise. 28. Atlanta Falcons (4-9) I just talked about how the Falcons should have won that Chargers game last week – they had the ball twice in scoring range over the last four minutes and they blew it. Just like they did when they held a 15-point lead until five minutes left against the Cowboys in week two or when Todd Gurley fell into the end-zone when you were basically guaranteed a win if your kicker can just hit a 20-yard field goal at the end. Interim head coach Raheem Morris gave them some life in the middle of the season, but they disqualified themselves from any outside shot of somehow being in the playoff conversation with these last two losses, after they had a 43-6 blowout win over the Raiders. The defense has shown a lot of improvement since their 0-5 start, but the defense has not been able to get stops when they really needed it for the most part. And while the offense has a lot of firepower in theory, but Julio Jones has been banged up all season long, they are 25th in rushing offense and they have not scored enough points when they were put in those situations. Atlanta is one of only two teams in the league – to go along with the Jets – to not convert more than half of their red-zone trips into touchdowns. 29. Dallas Cowboys (4-9) Don’t let their 30-7 win over the Bengals fool you – this is not a good team. The Cowboys were 2-7 coming out of their bye week and then when pulled off the upset over the Vikings, everybody was like “Could they still win the NFC East?”, which is more an indictment on that division than where they were as a team. They went on to get embarrassed (again) on Thanksgiving by Washington and then Baltimore ran for almost 300 yards on them over the following two weeks. They have allowed the most points all season long (400) and they have allowed four different teams to go for over 200 rushing yards this season. That doesn’t mix well with turning the ball over at the third-highest rate league-wide (24 total) and your defense allowing opponents to convert half of their third-down attempts. Andy Dalton has played fairly well when available, but Zeke has been a major disappointment, the O-line has been devastated with injuries and I think I have said enough about their defense. Final tier in the comments! If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/12/17/nfl-power-rankings-heading-into-the-final-three-weeks-of-the-2020-season/ And make sure to check out my detailed recap of every game from the NFL's week 14 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tra31Htw-Ps You can find all my social media linked there as well!
The Colts smashed the Raiders, 44-27, at Allegiant Stadium. Vegas couldn't stop the Colts offense, and 3 turnovers compounded the Raiders troubles. "I was mystified as to how a team could play so bad," Jon Gruden said. "So I called my brother Jay for an explanation. "I fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther just hours after the loss. Obviously, I needed a 'Paul' guy. But we didn't send Paul away without giving him a proper sendoff. It was called a 'responsible party.' "We certainly don't intend to let the Chargers treat us like the Colts did. They're coming to Vegas; most that do leave as losers. I'm talking about gamblers, not visiting teams, because we're 2-4 in Vegas. Anyway, the Chargers are going to find out why they call it the 'craps' table, and it's got nothing to do with a sick Lyle Alzado locker room prank back in the early '80s." The Chargers bounced back from their crushing 45-0 loss to the Patriots with a 20-17 win over the visiting Falcons. Michael Badgley's 43-yard field goal as time expired won it for L.A. "We just couldn't dwell on the Patriots game," Anthony Lynn said. "Sometimes, you just have to block memories from your mind. Personally, I've forgotten about that Patriots game, plus 9 others." Raiders win, 33-21.
Buffalo @ Denver (+4½)
The Bills handed the Steelers a 26-15 defeat in Buffalo on Sunday night. After a slow start, the Josh Allen-to-Stefon Diggs connection propelled the Bills one step closer to the AFC East title. "Josh is playing at an MVP level," Sean McDermott said. "He can beat you with his arm and with his legs. In Buffalo, they call that 'double murder.' "We were thrilled to get Stefon in a trade with the Vikings. He was just happy to get out of Minnesota. You know things must be bad when you can't wait to leave Minnesota where you play indoors for Buffalo where you play outdoors." The Broncos beat the Panthers 32-27 in Charlotte, led by Drew Lock's 4 touchdown passes, a career high. "Before that milestone," Vic Fangio said, "Drew's career 'high' was simply playing at an altitude of 5,280 feet. He's matched that record several times. "Drew has the talent, and the work ethic to be a great quarterback. Some question, though, whether he has that 'It' factor. He's got more than the 'It' factor; he's got the 'INT' factor." Bills win, 24-17.
Carolina @ Green Bay (-8½)
The Panthers lost 32-27 to the Broncos, who moved the ball at will against Carolina, who were without several players due to COVID issues. "We fined several players for breaking COVID protocols," Matt Rhule said. "In their defense, it is hard to put on a mask with a thumb up your ass. "We've been without Christian McCaffrey for 9 games this season. He's our best player, so we really miss him. But we can't worry about that. We just have to mind our P's and Q's; Christian has to mind his P's, Q's, D's, and O's." The Packers outlasted the Lions 31-24 at Ford Field and clinched the NFC North. Aaron Rodgers passed for 3 touchdowns and ran for another. "Aaron is in the zone," Matt LaFleur said. "He's thrown for 36 touchdowns with only 4 interceptions. That's a touchdown to interception ratio of 9. By comparison, Brett Favre's career ratio was 1.51, which is slightly higher than Favre's 'texting a D-pic to not texting a D-pic' ratio, which is 1." Packers win, 33-21.
Detroit @ Tennessee (-8½)
The Lions lost 31-24 to the visiting Packers and fell to 5-8. "The Packers seem to always have our number," Matthew Stafford said. "They do a better job of 'owning' us than the Ford family. "Darrell Bevell has brought some life back to this team. More specifically, he's replaced some life, because Matt Patricia sucked the life out of this team. But we wish Matt nothing but the best in his future endeavors. He's probably on some team's short list for a defensive coordinator job, and the job of supervising the In-School Suspension program that comes with it." Titans win, 30-21.
Houston @ Indianapolis (-7)
The Texans lost 36-7 to the Bears at Soldier Field. Deshaun Watson was sacked 6 times and passed for only 219 yards and 1 touchdown. "Our offense made the 2020 Bears defense look like the 1985 Bears defense," Watson said. "In other words, we set defenses and offenses back 35 years." The Colts demolished the Raiders 44-27 in Las Vegas, powered by 2 touchdowns apiece from Jonathan Taylor and T.Y. Hilton. Indy is 9-4, tied with the Titans atop the AFC South. "Our offense was really clicking," Frank Reich said. "And Philip Rivers is playing as well as he has in years. Philip's got multiple years left in him if he chooses to keep playing. In other words, he's 'got a lot of life left in him,' which was also the case after he had his first child." Colts win, 34-21.
San Francisco @ Dallas (+1½)
The Cowboys beat the Bengals 30-7 in Cincinnati in Andy Dalton's return to Cincinnati. Dalton passed for 2 scores and the Dallas defense forced 3 turnovers. "That had to be a satisfying win for Andy," Mike McCarthy said. "It's not often you experience the ecstasy of improving to 4-9 by beating a 2-9 team. If Andy has a bucket list, it's likely he still hasn't checked anything off of it. "We're still right in the thick of the NFC East race. Then again, who's not?" San Francisco wins, 27-20.
NY Jets @ L.A. Rams (-17)
The Rams whipped the Patriots 24-3 on Thursday night at SoFi Stadium. The Rams defense dominated with 6 sacks and an interception return for a touchdown. "As they say," Sean McVay said, "'Defense wins championships.' As they also say, 'The offense that scores only 3 points makes it possible for the defense to win championships.' That may be a reference to a recent Super Bowl, or so I'm told. "There's too much on the line to take the Jets lightly. But that doesn't necessarily mean we'll take them seriously." The Jets fell to 0-13 after a humiliating 40-3 loss to the Seahawks at Lumen Field. New York's offense struggled, while Seattle piled up over 400 total yards. "We did have a 3-0 lead," Adam Gase said. "And much like when we had the lead against the Raiders, we were soon 'all out blitzed.'" Rams win, 31-16.
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (+4)
The Buccaneers vanquished the visiting Vikings 26-14, led by Tom Brady's 2 touchdown passes and a defense that sacked Kirk Cousins 6 times. Tampa is 8-5, second in the NFC South. "Tom may be 43-years-old," Bruce Arians said, "but he's not done telling his story. I think he has another chapter to write. If he wins his seventh Super Bowl, it will pass Warren Sapp's as the most famous 'Chapter 7' in Tampa history." Buccaneers win, 28-21.
New England @ Miami (-2)
The Patriots managed only 220 yards of total offense in a 24-3 loss to the Rams on Thursday night. Cam Newton struggled and was benched in the fourth quarter. "I guess the Rams can say they got revenge for losing Super Bowl LIII," Bill Belichick said. "Good for them. I guess to the Rams, the word 'revenge' has a nice ring to it. And that's probably the closest they'll get to a 'ring' of any kind. "Cam is still our No. 1 quarterback, but only because of his jersey." The Dolphins intercepted Patrick Mahomes 3 times, but it wasn't enough as K.C. left Miami with a 33-27 win. Mahomes passed for 393 yards and 2 touchdowns. "The Chiefs offense really knows how to stretch a defense," Brian Flores said. "They make you cover every inch of the field. The Patriots offense? They also know how to stretch a defense — their own. "With no fans allowed in the stadium, we don't have much of a home-field advantage. It's so quiet, you can practically hear everything. So, 'Hard Rock Stadium' has become 'Easy Listening Stadium.'" Miami wins, 24-17.
Chicago @ Minnesota (-3)
The Bears spanked the visiting Texans 36-7 to end a six-game losing streak. Mitch Trubisky passed for 3 touchdowns, and David Montgomery rushed for 113 yards and a score. "That's the kind of offense Bears fans have been waiting to see around here," Matt Nagy said. "And Houston's is the kind of defense this Bears offense has been waiting to see around here." The Bucs beat the Vikings 26-14 in Tampa, snapping Minnesota's two-game winning streak. The Vikings out-gained the Bucs, but 4 missed kicks by Dan Bailey doomed Minnesota. "That really puts a damper on our playoff aspirations," Mike Zimmer said. "Much like Dan Bailey's kicking. If you put Dan Bailey and Blair Walsh on a rocket ship to the moon, guess what? I would not miss ... them." Vikings win, 26-21.
Seattle @ Washington (+5½)
The Seahawks hammered the visiting Jets, 40-3. Russell Wilson tossed 4 touchdown passes as Seattle improved to 9-4. "That was like shooting fish in a barrel," Wilson said. "That's called getting 'schooled.'" Washington took over sole possession of first in the NFC East with a 23-16 win over the 49ers. "We are by far the most dangerous 6-7 team in the NFL," Ron Rivera said. "Actually, we're probably the only dangerous 6-7 team in the league. "I'm sure the Panthers are having second thoughts about firing me. And second thoughts are about the closest to first the Panthers will get this year." Seahawks win, 27-24.
Jacksonville @ Baltimore (-13)
The Ravens outgunned the Browns 47-42 in Cleveland, as Lamar Jackson rushed for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns and added a passing score. "It took Lamar awhile to really go off on a team," John Harbaugh said, "but he really 'unloaded' on the Browns. "Did Lamar have the leave the game because of cramps, or was it something else? Some say he went to the locker room to receive intravenous fluids. Others say Lamar went back to release intra-anus solids." The Jaguars lost 31-10 to the visiting Titans, who dominated in handing Jacksonville its 12th straight loss. "Gardner Minshew is back as starter for Sunday's game," Doug Marrone said. "But just Sunday's game. I can't commit to him long term. I can't tell you how many times I've had that said to me. When you're choosing between Gardner, Jake Luton, and Mike Glennon, no decision is the right one. "Oddly enough, legend has it that if you chant the words 'Minshew, Luton, Glennon' three times into a mirror, Shad Khan will appear and cast you into the fires of Hell, or maybe just fire you." Ravens win, 33-14.
Philadelphia @ Arizona (-5½)
The Eagles upset the Saints 24-21 at Lincoln Financial Field in Jalen Hurts first start at quarterback. Hurts rushed for 106 yards as the Eagles as a team amassed 246 on the ground. "We call Jalen the 'option' quarterback," Doug Pederson said, "because he's the cheaper option. "We can't say for sure whether or not Carson Wentz will be a part of this team next year. We have a lot of money invested in him, so we owe it to ourselves to make a sound, informed decision. Because we owe more to Carson." The Cardinals beat the Giants 26-7 at MetLife Stadium as Arizona's defense held the Giants to 159 total yards and recorded 8 sacks. "That win tells us a lot about ourselves," Kliff Kingsbury said, "and even more about the NFC East. Of course, who am I kidding? If we were in the NFC East, like in the good old days, we only have a one game lead in the division." Cardinals win, 23-20.
Kansas City @ New Orleans (+3)
The Chiefs quickly erased an early 10-0 deficit at Miami and stormed back to take a 33-27 win. Travis Kelce had 8 catches for 136 yards and a touchdown, and Patrick Mahomes passed for 393 yards and 2 scores. "We clinched the AFC West title," Mahomes said. "Officially, that is. Unofficially, we clinched in back in September, before any games were played. Was there ever any doubt that we wouldn't win the West? I'll answer that with another question: Was there ever any doubt that Andy Reid wouldn't win the 1971 'Punt, Pass, and Kick' competition in Los Angeles?" The Saints lost 24-21 to the Eagles in Philadelphia and dropped from No. 1 to No. 2 in the NFC rankings. The Eagles piled up 246 yards rushing and 2 TDs on the ground. If the regular season ended today, Green Bay would earn the first-round bye instead of the Saints. "Our defense was exposed," Sean Payton said. "They played like 'S.' For that, they should have the 'S' removed from their nickname, thus making them the 'Aints.' "And speaking of 'paper sacks,' we're gonna have to have the opposite and bring our big boy scrotums to hold the cajones it will take to slow the Chiefs offense. To do that, we'll have to show Mahomes that he can't just stand in the pocket without the threat of being hit. To do that, we'll have to make sure our defense understands the magnitude of achieving that goal. To do that, we'll have Gregg Williams surprise them with a pre-game speech littered with obscenities and promises of cash. Ironically, Gregg is 'free.'" Chiefs win, 28-23.
Cleveland @ NY Giants (+3½)
The Browns lost a 47-42 shootout to the visiting Ravens on Monday night in Cleveland. The loss dropped the Browns to 9-4, trailing the 11-2 Steelers, and a game ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North. "The score of 47-42 was a first in NFL history," Baker Mayfield said. "So, although the final score may have been unusual, the outcome was typical Browns. "The AFC North is arguably the toughest division in the NFL. When you experience the rigors of the North, you learn a lot about your strengths and your weaknesses. It's both our strength and our weakness that we can only beat the Bengals." The Giants looked awful in a 26-7 home loss to the Cardinals. The Cards dominated in the trenches; Arizona recorded 159 yards rushing, and sacked Giants quarterbacks 8 times. "A win would have kept us in first in the NFC East," Joe Judge said. "So that was a huge game. And we sucked a large one." Giants win, 27-24.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (+13)
The Bills scored 23 unanswered points on their way to a 26-15 win over the visiting Steelers, who have now lost two in a row after starting the season 11-0. Pittsburgh's offense struggled, with only 224 total yards. "It's time to go back to basics," Mike Tomlin said. "Luckily, we're already there on offense. "Our receivers are struggling with drops as of late. And that puts Ben Roethlisberger in a pickle. He doesn't know who he can trust to catch one of his 4-yard passes. "We practiced in pads on the Friday before our game in Buffalo. I needed to remind our guys that the key to our success is physicality. Did it work? I don't think so. It was like when LeGarrette Blount played here, because everyone got a 'contact high.'" The Bengals fell to 2-10 with a 30-7 loss to the visiting Cowboys. "Mike Tomlin said a few weeks ago that his team played like a JV squad," Zac Taylor said. "Well, that team would still be heavily favored over us." Pittsburgh wins, 33-9.
Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 4th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming game at the Raiders. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage). Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Raiders’ Passing Defense In just 3 short weeks Josh Allen has gone from one of NFL Media’s favorite punching bags to an MVP favorite that is consistently lighting up opposing teams. At his current pace he would end the season with 64 Total TDs, 5984 Total Yards, and 4 AFC Offensive Player of the Months. Let’s be realistic here, that’s probably not happening, but with the way JA and this offense is playing nothing should surprise us moving forward. More importantly, his play is directly resulting in wins for the 3-0 Bills. Allen currently accounts for 100% of the Bills touchdowns and has led two 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives. The offense is the reason the Bills are winning and they are bailing out their defense, when’s the last time Bills Mafia could say that? Now the JA led passing attack takes on an injury riddled Raiders secondary which has been surprisingly proficient in 2020. Thus far they have held Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Brees (Without Michael Thomas), and Cam Newton to a combined passer rating of 88.9 which is comparable to Joe Burrow who ranks 25th in the NFL. They are doing this with a unit that is greater than the sum of its parts including freakishly talented, but oft-injured, Jonathan Abram. The 2nd year safety, whose playstyle is similar to Jamal Adams, has only appeared in 4 games but has racked up 25 tackles, 3 PD, and 1 INT. Outside of Abram there is no spectacular talent in the secondary with Erik Harris at the other safety position and Trayvon Mullen & ex-safety Lamarcus Joyner at CB. This secondary may have handled the previous 3 QBs it faced but couple the fact that this unit is lacking in talent with the fact that 19th overall pick Damon Arnette (CB) will miss Sunday’s game and the Bills may have a huge advantage here. And if the secondary is lacking in talent I am not sure what adjective to use for the Raiders pass rush. It is headlined by its outside rushers in underwhelming 2019 4th overall pick Clelin Ferrell and surprising 2019 106th overall pick Maxx Crosby. Ferrell, who is oddly similar to Shaq Lawson, has not exactly impressed through his first 18 games while Crosby shocked the entire NFL in posting a double digit sack season his rookie year which included a 4.0 sack performance against the Bengals. Dawkins, assuming he plays, and Williams should be able to maintain the edge against these DBs for the majority of the game but where the Bills should be, and seem to be, worried is at RG where Brian Winters struggled last week. Expect Jonathan Hankins to shade that gap with consistent blitzes coming from weakside linebacker Corey Littleton. (For the future the Bills need Jon Feliciano back bad). EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Raiders’ Rushing Defense I think at this point it is safe to say that Devin Singletary should be the bell cow RB for the Buffalo Bills. In Zack Moss’ absence Singletary played 89% of the offensive snaps and racked up 126 yards on 17 touches. Yes the dream of a backfield resembling The Thing and The Human Torch was nice but, while still a possibility, our version of The Thing needs more time to grow into his skin. Singletary showed multiple times Sunday why some people (maybe just me?) compare him to a young Shady McCoy by making multiple defenders look foolish. On his 3rd touch of the game he completely broke CB Tory Hill’s ankles turning what would have been a 4 yard loss into a 4 yard gain and then in the early 3rd quarter he did the same to Samson Ebukam turning what should have been a 2 yard loss on a screen pass into a 34 yard gain. Both of these plays showed why Singletary is so dangerous but it was his 4th touch of the game where he broke a 16 yard run and then wrapped the ball up at the end that has me excited. If there was a fumble issue the young RB is cognizant of it and is actively doing things to remedy it. So this week Singletary and all other runners, including Josh Allen, should be able to pad their stats against a weak Raiders run defense. In each game this season they have given up over 100 yards and are coming off a loss to the Patriots where they were gashed for 250 yards on 38 carries (6.6 Y/A). The majority of problems for the Raiders came from outside runs where the Patriots rushed outside the Left Tackle 9 times for 105 yards (11.6 Y/C) and outside the Right Tackles 5 times for 54 yards (10.8 Y/C). On the majority of these runs the Raiders DEs would get sealed off and the LBs would over commit providing opportunity for quick backs (Hey we have one of them) to break through the second level for large gains. If Gruden has not corrected this going into week 4 the Raiders could be in big trouble against this Bills team. But will part of that trouble be caused by Josh Allen? I’ve noticed an interesting trend on twitter in the past few weeks where noted JA haters have admitted they were wrong but then justify it by saying “I always knew he would be a good runner but never thought he would be a good passer”. Oh really? You always “knew” he would be a good runner? In college JA averaged about the same number of carries per game as Baker Mayfield and in his final season had about the same Y/C as Gardner Minshew did (2.2 vs. 2.1). In fact, Allen is even quoted as saying “I didn’t really run a whole lot (at Wyoming). I ran when we had to, third and short and things like that, but never had ‘breakaway’ speed…I still don’t think I’m fast”. His running ability surprised a lot of people and is now paired with proficiency through the air resulting in one of the most dynamic playstyles in the NFL, from someone few people expected it from. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Raiders’ Passing Offense It might not be time to panic but it is definitely time to worry. The Bills’ pass defense has now given up back to back 300 yard passing games for the first time since October 2017. The most worrisome part about this is that the Rams game exposed everyone in the secondary as opposed to just one or two players. Taron Johnson was targeted 7 times for 7 catches, Edmunds 7 times for 5 catches, Levi Wallace 3 times for 2 catches (and an INT), and Tre White 2 times for 2 catches and another TD. This means that thus far in 2020 Tre White has given up 2 TDs which is stunning considering he only allowed 2 in the entirety of 2018 and 0 in 2019. Something needs to change in the secondary and whether it be scheme or personnel (Josh Norman?) it’s something that the defense will need to fix quickly if the Bills intend to compete with the top teams in the NFL. This week the Bills won’t have a cakewalk in their attempt to fix this as often underrated Derek Carr will be on the other side of the ball. This is the same Carr who, outside of his rookie season, has not had a passer rating below 86. He finished last season with a passer rating of 100.8, good for 9th in the NFL, and in 2020 has a passer rating of 116.4, good for 5th. The most impressive part about this is that he is doing it with little to no weapons in the pass game outside of standout TE Darren Waller, who will be a problem Sunday. His most targeted receiver over the past 2 years has been Hunter Renfrow, who isn’t exactly Calvin Johnson, and Sunday will likely be without his next 2 receivers, rookies Bryan Edwards (3rd Round Pick) and Henry Ruggs (1st round pick). This leaves Carr with Nelson Agholor, who couldn’t catch a baby if he had to, and Josh Allen’s top receiver from his rookie season, Zay Jones. So we know the Raiders will be very weak at the receiver position but how about when it comes to protecting Carr? From left to right. 3rd year starter Kolton Miller will man Carr’s blindside and is a middle tier LT. Starting LG Richie Incognito is now on IR and in his place is 2020 4th round pick John Simpson. At Center is 10th year veteran and 3 time pro-bowler Rodney Hudson. Right Guard is set by 7th year Raider starter Gabe Jackson. And at RT the Raiders may be without starter Trent Brown and backup Sam Young leaving the only healthy Tackle remaining on the depth chart in 3rd year swing tackle Brandon Parker. All in all it’s a solid OL when healthy and a below average unit when injured. EDGE: Bills 👏 Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Raiders’ Rushing Offense Against the Jets the Bills’ run defense was very good. Against the Dolphins the Bills’ run defense was ok. Against the Rams the Bills’ run defense was horrendous. In these games the top RBs were Frank Gore (Jets), Myles Gaskin (Dolphins), and Darrell Henderson (Rams). The Bills’ run defense is trending the wrong way and continues to be the Achilles heel of a traditionally dominant defense. Is the Bills DL not winning the battle in the trenches? Are the LBs not breaking down and making the tackles they need to? Or are the schemes designed with more focus on the pass than the run? Or maybe, just maybe, it’s all three. We know there is a problem on the Bills side but they are about to have a bigger problem to deal with and he goes by the name Josh Jacobs. Jacobs just finished his 16th game meaning in a single seasons worth of games he has rushed for 1402 yards, 4.5 Y/A, 10 TD, 40 catches, and 241 yards. Jacobs is far and above the best RB the Bills have played in 2020 combining a thick frame, 4.60 speed, and incredible instincts to punish defenders. The majority of Jacobs big runs come outside the tackles where he breaks one tackle and is off to the races but he also can consistently pound the ball up the middle. This is where the Bills tend to be most vulnerable as demonstrated by the way Henderson continuously gained chunked yards play after play. The person the Bills need to step up this week is 22 year old Tremaine Edmunds. Edmunds age is astounding for a guy playing at his level but he is struggling mightily in 2020. Through 2 games he only has 8 tackles and is directly responsible for 2 big touchdowns. The first was a well-documented missed tackle against Jamison Crowder that resulted in a 69 yard TD. The second one happened against the Rams on a bubble screen to Robert Woods where Edmunds sniffed out the play but ran to far up field allowing Woods to break to the endzone. Yes, both of these were on passes but these demonstrate the main criticism I have for Edmunds. He often does not set his feet and when that happens, regardless of pass or run, bad things happen to the Bills. EDGE: Raiders 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Special Teams vs. Raiders’ Special Teams All of the Andre Roberts haters seem to be very very quiet lately. Roberts is currently 4th in Punt Return Y/R and 2nd in Kick Return Y/R. I’ll admit I still hold my breath when he takes a kick return out of the endzone but we all need to come to the realization that when he does it our field position almost always ends up past the 25 yard line. At kicker Tyler Bass has made his last 12 kicks and is looking more and more like a well-rounded veteran. And then there is Bojo. I fully understand that he only has 7 punts on the season but 4 of them have been downed inside the 20 and his Net Punt Avg of 46.0 is 3rd in the NFL. Also, that 72 yard punt against the Rams was a thing of beauty, shades of Brian Moorman. For the Raiders RB Jalen Richard is on kick return duty with 3 returns, averaging 26 Y/R, and a long of 30. At punt return is WR Hunter Renfrow who is averaging 14.0 Y/R on 3 returns but currently has the league high return at 27 yards. At kicker is veteran Daniel Carlson who struggled last year with an FG % of 73.1% and 2 missed XPs. Last is punter AJ Cole who is off to a rough start in 2020 with only 1 of his 8 punts inside the 20 and a Net Punt Avg of 37.6 which ranks 28th in the NFL. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 Why We Will Lose The Bills defense, as whole, looks bad and while the current version of the Raiders are no Kansas City Chiefs they have weapons which will give the Bills problems. Josh Jacobs is going to be an issue and if he can have similar success to what Darrel Henderson had against the Bills then the Raiders could literally run away with this game. Then in the receiving game Darren Waller looms large as an All-Pro caliber Tight End. In 2019 he was the 3rd most targeted TE but reeled in the 2nd most catches for the 2nd most yards. Throwing to him is Derek Carr who a lot of people like to hate on but is not that far removed from legitimately being in the MVP conversation. Don’t underestimate the Raiders’ offense and don’t overestimate the Bills’ defense. On defense the Raiders are bare of talent but have a few playmakers who could change games. Maxx Crosby is a wrecking ball who can light up an offense and with Dion Dawkins questionable for Sunday may be able to eat up Nsheke. In the secondary Johnathan Abram runs around like a maniac and can consistently deliver hits that jar the ball loose. Dark horse, Lamarcus Joyner, who is not as good as he was on the Rams but still has the ability to make a play here and there. As always turnovers are what hurt the Bills and the Raiders have multiple players capable of forcing a few. Why We Will Win This is the 4th week in a row where the Bills are just more talented than their opposition. The Bills secondary has been struggling, yes, but they are also playing a set of receivers this week that is far and away the weakest they have seen in 2020. This should allow the Bills to stack the box and focus specifically on the run with Tre White and the safeties responsible for closing any passing lanes Carr may have. If this happens the Raiders could be forced to punt over and over which against this Bills’ offense is not a winning strategy. And that offense just has too much skill to be contained in Las Vegas. Stefon Diggs is going to be covered by Trayvon Mullen? Diggs just managed 4 catches for 49 yards and a TD as the primary focus of one of the best corners in the NFL. Even if by some miracle Diggs is shutdown Brown, Beasley, and Gabe Davis are all weapons that the Raiders cannot consistently cover. All of this ignores the weak spot in the Raiders’ offense which is their run defense. If they need to the Bills should be able to run all over this team which could possibly mean Allen does not hit 300 yards (Blasphemy), mainly because he won’t need to. Prediction:Bills 31 – Raiders 21 The Raiders barely beat the Panthers, handled a bad and injury riddled Saints team, and got stomped by the Patriots.The Bills are better than all 3 of those teams and have an offense that will be the biggest challenge the Raiders have faced to date. If the Bills can jump out to an early lead it will force the ball out of Jacobs’ (RB) hands and into a passing attack devoid of weapons. I’m concerned about the Bills’ defense as a whole but still think they can be one of the better units in the NFL. Assuming this game goes the way it should Buffalo will leave Vegas 4-0 and get ready for a trip to Nashville.
Events that happened but are not limited to: The Great Recession ends in June 2009, with job losses continuing through December, at a smaller magnitude. Air France Flight 447 crashes into the Atlantic Ocean, 228 lives are lost. (Jun 1) The H1N1 swine flu is declared to be a global pandemic by the WHO. (Jun 11) Mass protests erupt across Iran over a disputed presidential election. (Jun 13) The LA Lakers win 4-1 against the Orlando Magic, and Kobe Bryant is awarded the MVP final (Jun 14). NASA launches the Lunar Reconnaissance Probes/LCROSS Probes, the first lunar mission in 11 years (Jun 18) Michael Jackson, King of Pop and Farah Fawcett, actress and model passes away (Jun 25). Yemenia Flight 126 crashes off coast of Comoros with 153 on board, 1 survived, 14 yr old girl. (Jun 30) Sarah Palin, announces her resignation as 9th governor of Alaska for Jul 26 (Jul 3), 31 million American view Michael Jackson's funeral which is broadcasted live, potentially reaching 2.5 billion in viewership worldwide (Jul 7). Caspian Airlines Flight 7908 crashes in Iran, 168 lives are lost (Jul 15). 2 bombs go off separately in Jakarta, Indonesia at the Ritz-Carlton and JW Marriott hotels (Jul 17) The longest total solar eclipse of the 21st century, lasting 6 minutes and 38 seconds occurs over parts of Asia and the Pacific Ocean (Jul 22). Bolivia, becomes the first country where the indigenous people is declared the right to govern themselves. (Aug 3) Typhoon Morakot hits Taiwan (Aug 7). Teen Choice Awards 2009 are hosted by the Jonas Brothers. (Aug 9) Michael Jackson's passing ruled a homicide by drug overdose. (Aug 28) Films that came out this summer include but are not limited to: Up (May 31), The Hangover (Jun 5), Imagine That (Jun 6), The Taking of Pelham 123 (Jun 12), The Proposal (Jun 19), Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (Jun 24), The Hurt Locker (Jun 26), Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (Jul 1), Harry Potter and The Half-Blood Prince (Jul 15), The Ugly Truth (Jul 16), Homecoming (Jul 17), G-Force (Jul 24), Orphan (Jul 24), The Ugly Truth (Jul 24), Aliens in the Attic (Jul 31), Funny People (Aug 2), 500 Days of Summer (Aug 7), G.I Joe Rise of Cobra (Aug 7), District 9 (Aug 14), Ponyo (Aug 14), World's Greatest Dad (Aug 21), Inglorious Basterds (Aug 21), Final Destination (Aug 28) Games that came out this summer include but are not limited to: inFamous (May 26), Sims 3 (Jun 2), Red Faction: Guerilla (Jun 2), Prototype (Jun 9), Guitar Hero Smash Hits (Jun 16), FarmVille (Jun 19), Anno 1404 (Jun 23), Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (Jun 23), Overlord II (Jun 23), Fight Night Round 4 (Jun 25), Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (Jun 30), Harry Potter and The Half-Blood Prince (Jun 30) Reign of Swords: Episode 2 (Jul 2), Battlefield 1943 (Jul 8), Wii Resort (Jul 26) Madden NFL 10 (Aug 14), Wolfenstein (Aug 18), Shadow Complex (Aug 19), Batman: Arkham Asylum (Aug 25) TV shows that started airing this summer include but are not limited to: Jon & Kate Plus 8 on TLC (May 25), The Little Couple on TLC (May 26), Wipeout on ABC (May 27), Tosh.0 on Comedy Central (Jun 4), 16 & Pregnant on MTV (Jun 11), Zeke and Luther on Disney XD (Jun 15), I Survived a Japanese Game Show (Jun 17) Destroy Build Destroy and BrainRu$h on Cartoon Network (Jun 20), Make It or Break It on ABC (Jun 22), America's got Talent Season 4 (Jun 23), Pawn Stars on History (Jul 19), Dating in the Dark on ABC (Jul 20), Shark Tank on ABC (Aug 9), Kourtney and Khloe Take Miami on E! (Aug 16). Kid/Teen Shows that were popular but are not limited to: PBS Kids Go!: Dragon Tales, Arthur, Sesame Street, Mister Rogers' Neighborhood, Fetch! with Ruff Ruffman, Raggs, Miffy & Friends, Cyberchase, It's a Big Big World, Between the Lions, Barney & Friends, Super Why!, Curious George, Dragon Tales, Zula Patrol, Thomas & Friends, Maya & Miguel, Bob the Builder, Clifford the Big Red Dog, Clifford's Puppy Days, Caillou, Sid the Science Kid. Playhouse Disney: Little Einsteins, Imagination Movers, Charlie and Lola, Handy Manny, My Friends Tigger & Pooh, Special Agent Oso, Jungle Junction, Mickey Mouse Clubhouse, My Friends Tigger & Pooh Disney: Jonas, Phineas & Ferb, Princess Protection Program, Wizards of Waverly Place, Cory in the House, Sonny With a Chance, The Suite Life on Deck, Life with Derek, Hannah Montana, Wizards of Waverly Place: The Movie, Wizards on Deck with Hannah Montana, Pass the Plate, Zeke and Luther Nickelodeon: Spongebob Squarepants, Dora the Explorer, Max & Ruby, Maggie and the Ferocious Beast, The Fairly Odd Parents, Rugrats: All Grown Up, Drake & Josh, iCarly, Ned's Declassified, The Penguins of Madagascar, The Backyardigans, Ni Hao Kai-Lan, Jimmy Neutron, The Mighty B! Cartoon Network: Ben 10: Alien Force, Transformers: Animated, Johnny Test, Chowder, Total Drama Island, 6Teen, The Marvelous Misadventures of Flapjack, Star Wars: The Clone Wars, Pokemon: Diamond and Pearl - Galactic Battles, Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D'S, Ed Edd n Eddy, Tom and Jerry, The League of Super Evil, Bakugan Battle Brawlers, The Mr. Men Show Popular Cell Phones this summer include but are not limited to: Nokia 6300, Nokia E71, Apple iPhone 3G, LG EnV Touch, Palm Pre, HTC Touch Diamond 2, HTC Touch Pro 2, BlackBerry Tour 9630, Songs that were a hit this summer include but are not limited to: "Boom Boom Pow", "I Gotta Feeling", by Black Eyed Peas, "Run This Town" by Jay Z ft. Rihanna and Kanye West, "Poker Face" "Love Game" by Lady Gaga, "Waking Up In Vegas" by Katy Perry, "Right Round" by Flo Rida ft. Ke$ha, "Fire Burning" by Sean Kingston, "I know You Want Me (Calle Ocho)" by Pitbull, "Replay" by Iyaz, "Don't Trust me" by 3OH!3, "Good Girls Go Bad" by Cobra Starship ft. Leighton Meester, "You Belong with Me" by Taylor Swift, "Party in the USA", "The Climb" by Miley Cyrus, "Celebration" by Madonna, "New Divide" by Linkin Park, "If Today was your Last Day" by Nickelback, "Use Somebody" by Kings of Leon, and "Billie Jean" "Thriller" "Beat it" "Man in the Mirror" by Michael Jackson. Also, these kids were about to start the 2009/10 school year in these following grades/years: Gr. 12 (c/o 2010) b. 1991-92 Gr. 11 (c/o 2011) b. 1992-93 Gr. 10 (c/o 2012) b. 1993-94 Gr. 9 (c/o 2013) b. 1994-95 Gr. 8 (c/o 2014) b. 1995-96 Gr. 7 (c/o 2015) b. 1996-97 Gr. 6 (c/o 2016) b. 1997-98 Gr. 5 (c/o 2017) b. 1998-99 Gr. 4 (c/o 2018) b. 1999-00 Gr. 3 (c/o 2019) b. 2000-01 Gr. 2 (c/o 2020) b. 2001-02 Gr. 1 (c/o 2021) b. 2002-03 Kindergarten (c/o 2022) b. 2003-04 Pre-K / Preschool 4's (c/o 2023) b. 2004-05 Preschool 3's (c/o 2024) b. 2005-06
NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2020
We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them. Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now. https://preview.redd.it/rs90lt6ckf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ddfc8945862472b52b5ef8c69076acde904c44c
1. Arizona Cardinals
Why they can win the division: Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other. Why they could finish last again: Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league. Bottom line: I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020. https://preview.redd.it/anrr9erfkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=5655b4452baff2691a0e060e8d70918d58801a4c
2. Detroit Lions
Why they can win the division: Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough. Why they could finish last again: Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive. Bottom line: I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark. https://preview.redd.it/7ivo914ikf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=d029ddd274b78e78f5bc932d00086b8c697a466e
3. Miami Dolphins
Why they can win the division: When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game. Why they could finish last again: As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams. Bottom line: As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here. https://preview.redd.it/nme3explkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=3998c6026125c1b9b48438e3fc9afaf9601b116e
4. Los Angeles Chargers
Why they can win the division: First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room. Why they could finish last again: I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy. Bottom line: In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division. https://preview.redd.it/rywropjokf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed77a7303af810b862abb2100c4f0b86841a2d38
5. Washington Redskins
Why they can win the division: These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game. Why they could finish last again: Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you. Bottom line: These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently. https://preview.redd.it/szpawv9rkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=62ca5fe882d8155d83eb3328e9bf1f1681a17384
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
Why they can win the division: I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November. Why they could finish last again: I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period. Bottom line: The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now. https://preview.redd.it/5myv276vkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fb25f47d0759e9b5a07876ea01787898c6cc817
7. Carolina Panthers
Why they can win the division: Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7. Why they could finish last again: Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season. Bottom line: The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center. https://preview.redd.it/y7agj2n2lf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=221af0a1f689d3b19d5e250fac0b58a35877edad
8. Cincinnati Bengals
Why they can win the division: We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates. Why they could finish last again: As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year. Bottom line: I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air. If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/16/nfl-teams-most-likely-to-go-from-worst-to-first-in-2020/ You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9kCcuPobNU
Week 17 NFL DFS Picks: Best value players, sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel daily fantasy football lineups
The final week of the 2020 NFL season is upon us, and the majority of season-long fantasy leagues have already crowned their champions. But DFS sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo allow you to extend the fantasy fun, and assemble brand-new lineups with healthy players from teams still actively competing for playoff positioning. Before every week of this season, I have provided a list of my favorite DFS sleepers and under-the-radar value plays. I do so with the help of RotoQL, which featuresup-to-date rankings of every NFL players’ DFS prices, values, stat projections, floors, and ceilings. If you read this column last week, you would have benefited greatly from our advice to make the following DFS roster picks (all Week 16 prices and fantasy points via DraftKings): QB Andy Dalton ($5,500): 30.6 fantasy pointsQB Mitchell Trubisky ($5,700): 24.6QB Jalen Hurts ($7,000): 20.6RB David Johnson ($6,100): 31.9RB J.K. Dobbins ($6,200): 13.7WR Mike Evans ($6,100): 43.1WR Brandin Cooks ($6,200): 30.1WR Tee Higgins ($4,700): 21.9TE Austin Hooper ($3,500): 14.1TE Mark Andrews ($5,700): 13.6TE Logan Thomas ($4,900): 13.3Tampa Bay D/ST ($3,800): 12San Fran D/ST ($2,700): 11Washington D/ST ($3,000): 9These players (and defenses) all vastly outperformed their price tiers, with some even leading their positions for the week. By finding such great values at modest costs, DFS managers afforded themselves studs like Deshaun Watson, Travis Kelce, and Jonathan Taylor in other roster spots.MORE WEEK 17 DFS: Best stacks| Lineup BuilderYou can read Week 17 previews and fantasy prediction articles 24/7onBetQL, find out which side the pros are betting on their NFL expert picks dashboard, follow all the NFL public betting data, and build DraftKings lineupson RotoQL.Let's break down ourtop Week 17 DFS value plays, and you can get an idea of why 100,000DFSplayers trustRotoQLto build lineups. We constantly monitor pricingand provide the most up-to-date insight and analysis to maximize your lineup success.Optimize, find value plays, and increase your chances of cashing today!WEEK 17 DFS TOURNAMENT LINEUPS: DraftKings| FanDuelNFL DFS Picks Week 17: QB sleepers, valuesKirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (DK: $6,300 | FD: $7,700)Cousins has enjoyed a fantastic home stretch of the regular season, averaging 23.6 fantasy points since Week 11. Now he faces a Lions defense surrendering the third-most fantasy points in the league. In Detroit’s past five games, QBs have averaged 299.2 passing yardswhile throwing a combined total of 15 touchdowns. RotoQL has Cousins projected to score 21 fantasy points, easily the highest-projected score for any signal-caller under $7,000 on DraftKings.Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $6,000 | FD: $7,300)I’m shocked at how many times I have recommended Rivers in this column this seasonconsidering he almost perennially makes my personal ‘Do Not Draft’ list, but the veteran QB’s listed prices have been values more often than not this seasonand he almost always delivers against poor defenses. Enter the Jaguars, who yield the second-most fantasy points to QBs and tank better than the Jets. RotoQL projects Rivers at 18.4with a ceiling of 28.7 points.Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (DK: $5,700 | FD: $7,200)Aww, we’re getting nostalgic in the last week of the regular season! Carr has also made this list a handful of times this yearand for good reason. Like Rivers, the Raiders QB is unspectacular but solid. He doesn’t make too many mistakes, which limits his fantasy floor, and he has play-making receivers who boost his ceiling. Denver ranks 21st in fantasy points allowed to QBs, so he’s a great investment at $5,700.New Year’s Bonus: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (DK: $5,900 | FD: $7,400)You had me at Carolina. The Panthers have served as many QBs’ ‘get-right games’ this season, which should be no different this week for the future Hall-of-Famer. Brees averages 24.4 fantasy points in his past three games against the Panthers. If he can’t hit Black Jack against them this week, he might not be physically ready for the playoffs.WEEK 17 DFS CASH LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuelWeek 17 DraftKings, FanDuel Picks: RB sleepers, valuesD'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (DK: $6,300 | FD: $7,500)The rookie has faced quite a few tough run defenses in the second half of the season, butSwift has still averaged17.4 fantasy points over his past five games. He turned 16 touches into 97 yards the first time these teams met in Week 9, and he has exceeded that touch count in three of the past four weeks since. With 4.6 average yards per carry and nine total touchdowns, it will be difficult to stay away from Swift at $6,300 against the Vikings, who rank 27th against RBs in fantasy land.Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders (DK: $5,700 | FD: $6,800)The veteran Gordon kicked the turbo boosters on for the home stretch of 2020, accumulating 500 yards on the ground in 93 carries since Week 10 (5.4 yards per carry). Look for him to find paydirt for the 10th time this season, and with 107 yards, he can reach the 1,000-yard mark for just the second time in his career. The Raiders have ceded the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs this seasonand 6.1 yards per carry to bell-cow backs since these teams last met in mid-November. We’re down with MG3 in Week 17.Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,100)While the Ravens have underwhelmed this season, the ‘Gus Bus’ has been rolling like it’s got Sandra Bullock at the wheel. Since Week 13, Edwards has carried the ball 38 times for 277 yards (7.3 yards per carry), and he’s found the end zone twice. He also has 73 receiving yards over Baltimore’s past two games. David Johnson just rushed for 128 yards and a score against Cincinnati, one week after Benny Snell carved the Bengals up for 107 total yards and a score. Ride the Bus to DFS glory at a discount deal this week.Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $4,900 | FD: $6,000)Another deal at under $5,000, Hines has very quietly put up 60 fantasy points since Week 12. He serves as one of Rivers’ security blankets, equally capable of doing damage on the ground and through the air. The Jaguars are the gift that keeps on giving, as they rank 30th in fantasy against RBs. RotoQL lists Hines’ ceiling at 28.5 PPR points, a mark he hit in Week 10 against the Titans.New Year’s Bonus: Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (DK: $5,900 | FD: $5,500)He’s no Alvin Kamara, but that’s why Murray’s priced $3,600 lower than his teammate. The change-of-pace back has scored 23.5 total fantasy points over the past two games, and now he draws a Panthers defense that has been dreadful against the run all year. RotoQL gives him a 10.3-point projection with a ceiling of 39.7.WEEK 17 PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback|Running back|Wide receiver|Tight end|D/ST|KickerFanDuel, DraftKings Picks Week 17: WR sleepers, valuesT.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $5,800 | FD: $6,300)Maybe Hilton traded for himself on his own fantasy team late in the seasonbecause he’s averaged 18.4 PPR points since Week 12. Now he gets to inflict some pain on a Jacksonville secondary that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers this season. I know, I’m hammering the Jaguars this week, butHilton will hammer them, too, whether you insert him into your lineups or not.Keke Coutee, Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (DK: $5,600 | FD: $5,700)At least somebody benefited from the Will Fuller suspension. Coutee has scored 61.2 fantasy points since Week 13 (15.3 per game), clearly earning the trust of Texans QB Deshaun Watson. Coutee has seen the field for 73 percent of Houston’s offensive snaps since the Fuller suspension, and he’s caught 21-of-24 targets in that span. Tennessee has allowed the third-most points to wideouts this season. RotoQL projects the third-year speedster at 13 PPR pointswith a 25-point ceiling.Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK: $5,100 | FD: $5,700)Another wideout who has benefited from the absence of a teammate, Gage has stepped up since Julio Jones suffered a hamstring injury in Week 13. Since then, Gage has 18 grabs for 224 yards and two scores. He will look to close out the season well against the Bucs, who have been surprisingly generous to receivers in fantasy this year (23rd). The oveunder for this game is set at 50 points, and Tampa Bay has scored 78 points total in the past two weeks. Expect Falcons QB Matt Ryan to throw early and often, with Gage once again profiting from the volume.Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (DK: $5,100 | FD: $6,100)Jones has been a boom-or-bust play this season, with nearly 60 combined PPR points in Weeks 13 and 15 but just 13.7 combined in Weeks 14 and 16. We at RotoQL expect him to boom again in Week 17, not just because he’s an odd-number type of guy but also because the Lions face a vulnerable Vikings secondary ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to receivers. We have Jones projected at 14.2 fantasy points, with a much higher ceiling if QB Matthew Stafford (ankle) can suit up.New Year’s Bonus: Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (DK: $5,000 | FD: $6,200)I’ve forgiven Gallup for helping my opponent eliminate me from my fantasy league’s playoffs a few weeks back (I started him in my FLEX spot over Miles Sanders the week Sanders went off against the Saints…gulp). Gallup seems to have forgiven himself, as well, as he scored 11.6 points last week against San Francisco and a whopping 33.1 points last week against the Eagles. Expect double-digits in a huge NFC East battle with the G-Men this weekend.WEEK 17 STANDARD RANKINGS:Quarterback|Running back|Wide receiver|Tight end|D/ST|KickerWeek 17 NFL DFS Picks: TE sleepers, valuesMark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $5,800 | FD: $7,200)Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has recently looked a lot more like he did during his 2019 MVP campaign than he did earlier in the season. Part of the reason is because he has reestablished his healthy connection with Andrews. The 6-5, 256-pound tight end has 77.7 points over the course of Baltimore’s past five games (15.5 per game), and now he travels to Cincinnati to face a Bengals D ranked 28th in fantasy against his position.Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (DK: $3,900 | FD: $5,600)Smith reached 15 or more PPR points for the third time in five weeks when he scored 23.3 against a good Saints defense in New Orleans on Christmas. RotoQL sees that 23-point mark as his ceiling against the floundering Lions, who rank 24th against tight ends in fantasy. As a red-zone favorite of the aforementioned Cousins, Smith may very well find paydirt for the third time in two weeks.New Year’s Bonus: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders (DK: $4,400 | FD: $5,700)It’s good to let go of grudges and grievances around the New Year, so I’m willing to forgive and forget about the fact that Fant did next-to-nothing for me in the four fantasy leagues I drafted him this year. Fant has scored 33.3 combined PPR points in Denver’s past two games, and he gets to finish the season off strong against a miserable Raiders defense.BetQL, RotoQL’s sister product, simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day and meaningful team trends.Check it out here! Week 17 NFL DFS values: D/ST sleepersSeattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (DK: $3,000 | FD: $3,900)The Seahawks D, which was historically bad in the first half of the season, has been surprisingly good in the second half. The biggest difference-maker has been Carlos Dunlap, who has provided Seattle with an actual pass-rush since coming over via trade. The Seahawks have scored at least nine fantasy points in every game since Week 11, and the 49ers often make mistakes with Nick Mullens under center.I wish all of our readers a happy and healthy New Year, and hope you all start 2021 with some big-time DFS winnings!
Plays and Fades: NFL Week 3 Fantasy Football Predictions
Every NFL week, we'll go game by game and name a Play and a Fade for each contest. Plays and fades are relative to their consensus rankings and salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel. Meaning the Play will not always be the player I expect to have the most fantasy points for a given game and the Fade will not always be a player I expect to get zero snaps.
Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars
PLAY: James Robinson
The Jacksonville Jaguars like to have a workhorse running back and have made it clear that James Robinson is the guy for them. The undrafted rookie RB is averaging a solid 5.1 YPC on 32 carries. The Miami Dolphins have been decent against the run, but I expect the Jags to hop in front of this one and give Robinson a large workload.
FADE: Keelan Cole
Keelan Cole has been on fire to start the season. 11 catches for 105 yards and 2 TDs in Week 1 and Week 2 combined. However, those 11 catches came on 12 targets. I am not expecting Cole to keep up that type of efficiency. DJ Chark has been lightly used to start the season and I'm expecting more targets to go his way as the season goes on. Odds are Cole does not complete the hat trick and find the endzone for the 3rd week in a row.
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons
PLAY: Allen Robinson II
Allen Robinson has been lackluster, to say the least. He hasn't found the endzone yet this season and has barely surpassed 100 yards receiving. Although, he has seen some positive usage with 18 targets across Week 1 and Week 2. The trade rumors are behind us and now in Week 3, he goes up against a leaky Atlanta Falcons defense. I'm expecting a nice bounce-back here for A-Rob.
FADE: Matt Ryan
Matty Ice tore up the first two weeks throwing for 6 TDs and 700+ yards passing while only tossing one interception. His weapons may be as good as he’s ever had with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage at WR, Hayden Hurst at TE, and Todd Gurley II in the backfield. BUT, the Falcons are coming off of a devastating Week 2 loss against the Cowboys and now have to face a good Chicago Bears defense. The Seattle Seahawks in Week 1 and the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2 were both great matchups for game flow. The Chicago Bears are a different opponent. Did someone press the sim button? I expect the clock to be running often in this one. Matty Ice may have a couple of TDs, but the yardage won't be there.
Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills
PLAY: Cooper Kupp
Tyler Higbee hogged all the TDs in Week 2 and Malcolm Brown hogged all the TDs in Week 1. Similar to Bill Belichick, Sean McVay is a master at finding what works and riding that strategy until his opponent figures it out. Rumor has it McVay grew up playing Blitz the video game and couldn't be stopped with "Da Bomb". Why would you run any other play when you can't be stopped? I'm expecting Cooper Kupp to be the beneficiary this week against the Buffalo Bills. I'm a fan of the Bills defense, but they let up big numbers to Jam Crowder in Week 1 and Mike Gesicki in Week 2.
FADE: Stefon Diggs
Stefon Diggs has been a stud. 16 receptions on 22 targets for 239 yards and 1 TD in the first two weeks. He's quickly built chemistry with Josh Allen and it's showing. I'm expecting the Rams to focus on Stefon Diggs which will open up some opportunities for John Brown and Cole Beasley. I love Diggs in season-long, but I'm being cautious with him for DFS in Week 3.
Washington Football Team vs Cleveland Browns
PLAY: Logan Thomas
The Logan Thomas hype team went all out in the lead up to Week 2. Everyone in the fantasy industry only had positive things to say about the guy. And then he was a full dud… catching 4 passes for 26 yards. Brutal stat line. However, he did see 9 targets. I’m expecting the targets to be there again in Week 3 against the Cleveland Browns and this week he’ll scoop them in and rack up bigger numbers.
FADE: Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb looked awesome in Week 2. He’s a stud. I just don’t trust the Cleveland Browns…. That is all. You’re obviously starting him in any season-long league, but I’d like to have exposure elsewhere in DFS.
Tennessee Titans vs Minnesota Vikings
PLAY: Justin Jefferson
Does Adam Thielen have 5 defensive backs on him every time he goes out for a route? That’s the way it feels. The Minnesota Vikings and Kirk Cousins have to catch on. I love Thielen, but I’m expecting the Vikings to pivot and spread the ball around. The first-round rookie draft pick Justin Jefferson is my pick to click in Week 3 for the Vikings. He’s been efficient in his first two weeks with 5 receptions on 6 targets for 70 yards.
FADE: Adam Thielen
See the above thoughts on Justin Jefferson. Mike Vrabel is going to throw the kitchen sink at Adam Thielen in an attempt to shut him down. If the Vikings can get ahead and Dalvin Cook gets hot early, Adam Thielen may get free for some play-action passes.
Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots
PLAY: Julian Edelman
The fantasy community wrote Julian Edelman off once Tom Brady left town. Sunday night against the Seahawks he went off and showed why he is a Super Bowl MVP. He seems to be the same target/reception machine he’s always been even with Cam Newton throwing him the ball. This massive game for Edelman was not a blip on the radar.
FADE: Damiere Byrd
In Week 1, Damiere Byrd had a goose egg. In Week 2, he came to play posting 6 catches for 72 yards on 9 targets. In Week 3, I think we’re looking at another goose egg. They won’t need to keep up with the Raiders the same way they had to keep up with the Seahawks. I know the Raiders are coming off of a big win against the Saints, but now they have a short week and have to prepare for Bill Belichick.
San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants
PLAY: Giants DEF
The 49ers offense is beat up. At the time of this writing, I’m not expecting any of Jimmy G, Raheem Mostert, George Kittle, or Deebo Samuel to play. The NYG’s defense could be a sneaky start. The opening line is 49ers -4 points.
FADE: Jordan Reed
Jordan Reed had a great Week 2 with George Kittle sidelined and hauled in 2 TDs. He looked like the elite receiving target we all know the uninjured Jordan Reed to be. Unfortunately for Reed, both of those TDs were thrown by Jimmy G. I’m not trusting Reed in Week 3 if Mullens is taking snaps. Obviously, this point is moot if Jimmy G does in fact play.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles
PLAY: AJ Green
Fantasy owners were psyched to see what a healthy AJ Green could do. Especially with the rookie Joe Burrow throwing him the ball. Thursday Night Football against the Browns was a major disappointment. It was impossible to scroll through Twitter that night without coming across the AJ Green hate hype. AJ Green ended up with 3 catches for 29 yards on 13 targets! It was clear Joe Burrow was trying to force him the ball, but the connection was just not there. I happen to be a buyer of AJ Green. 22 targets in 2 games is hard to ignore AND he has a good quarterback. Joe Burrow is the real deal. It’s just a matter of time before these two start moving the ball down the field and into the endzone.
FADE: DeSean Jackson
The Eagles have looked bad, but the Bengals have looked worse. I’m expecting a big day for the TE duo and Miles Sanders. The Eagles are most likely going to be playing ahead in this one. DeSean Jackson is going to have to get going early if he wants to rack up any stats.
Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers
PLAY: JuJu Smith-Schuster
JuJu is looking at a big bounce-back week in Week 3 against the Houston Texans. He caught 7 of his 8 targets in Week 2, but it only added up to 48 yards and 0 touchdowns. Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and James Conner took all the TDs and had the big plays for the Steelers. The Steelers offense is looking decent now that Big Ben is back. JuJu should get his share of big plays and get in the endzone in Week 3.
FADE: Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson hasn’t been good. To make matters worse, it looks like he will not have the often injured Will Fuller in Week 3. I’m avoiding Watson until he shows any sign of life. I could see a case for him in GPPs if you’re looking for a low owned option at QB, but it’s a meta play I’m not going to make. Deandre Hopkins is laughing his way to Week 3 at 2-0.
New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts
PLAY: Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor is a chalky call, but it’s hard to find anyone playable in this matchup. I had Jonathan Taylor as a play in Week 2’s Plays and Fades, but I was not expecting that massive usage he got in Week 2. He finished the game with 26 carries and out-touched Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins by a wide margin.
FADE: TY Hilton
TY Hilton was a fade in Week 2’s Plays and Fades. We’re going to fade him again. He hasn’t shown any chemistry with Phil Rivers. This is another situation that I’m avoiding until I see any positive signs here. Playing TY is a blind dart throw.
Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Chargers
PLAY: Keenan Allen
Keenan Allen is back! And by that I mean he has Justin Herbert throwing him the ball. Herbert looked mechanical back there like a robot programmed to play QB. With HerBot as the QB, Keenan Allen had 7 receptions for 96 yards on 10 targets. This is going to be a landslide victory for the Chargers going up against a McCaffrey-less Carolina Panthers. Keenan Allen will get his. Note: Anthony Lynn has suggested Tyrod Taylor may still be the starting QB. Nothing against Tyrod Taylor, but I’m not buying what Lynn is selling. If Tyrod does indeed start, I take back Keenan Allen as a “Play”. Unless of course Tyrod plays and Keenan Allen has a good game. In that case, I’m sticking to it.
FADE: Mike Davis
Mike Davis is going to be chalky this weekend at RB. He secured all 8 of his targets for 74 yards in Week 2 and had a nice week. He’s the likely benefactor with Christian McCaffrey out. The “fade” is purely coming from a DFS perspective on this one. I’m avoiding him Week 3 because I think he’ll be highly owned. I’m playing Mike Davis in cash and fading him in GPPs. If he’s on waivers, grab him.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos
PLAY: Leonard Fournette
Leonard Fournette is clearly the best talent in the Bucs backfield. It was just a matter of time before he became the de facto lead back. He out-touched Ronald Jones by a slim margin, but he took his opportunities and ran with them. 12 carries for 103 yards and 2 TDs for Fournette vs 7 carries for 23 yards and a TD for RoJo in Week 2. I’m expecting them to lean more and more on Fournette when push comes to shove.
FADE: Tom Brady
I’m not on the “Tom Brady hasn’t looked like himself yet” kick. I think he looks fine and is helping his team win. The Bucs are a work in progress and they’re going to get better and better as the season goes on. I’m fading him from a fantasy football perspective in Week 3 as I’m not expecting big numbers from Brady. The injuries at the WR position aren’t helping. After Week 3, he may be a nice buy-low opportunity in season-long.
Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
PLAY: Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray’s passing stats have been mediocre at best, but luckily for him, he’s a stud running the football. In two games he already has 158 yards rushing and 3 TDs! When it comes to juicy matchups, the Detroit Lions are as juicy as it gets. Kyler Murray is going to go off Week 3 and take the Arizona Cardinals to 3-0.
FADE: TJ Hockenson
TJ Hockenson was a fade in Week 2’s Plays and Fades. He’s here as a fade again in Week 3 for the same reason. The usage is just not there. Hockenson has to be extremely efficient to turn his limited targets into production. He has caught all 9 of his targets for 118 yards and 1 TD so far this season. Even with the high efficiency, the production is mediocre.
Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks
PLAY: Dak Prescott
It was hard to pick a “play” in this one. Everyone looks like a good play. This game is ripe for fantasy greatness.
FADE: Chris Carson
It was hard to pick a “fade” as well. I’m expecting a high scoring affair with most of the action in the passing game. I don’t feel strongly about this one and could see it backfiring.
Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints
PLAY: Alvin Kamara
There is a strong case for Alvin Kamara to be the #1 overall pick in redraft leagues. He’s a stat monster and the Saints know how to use him. The Packers DEF have already allowed 3 rushing TDs against opposing RBs this season. I’m expecting Kamara to have another multi-touchdown game.
FADE: Aaron Jones
In Week 2’s Plays and Fades, we faded Josh Jacobs against the Saints on MNF and received a lot of hate for it. Jacobs had a touchdown-less 105 yards on 30 touches… The game flow was there and he didn’t do much with it. I’m a buyer of this Saints DEF against opposing RBs. That’s where this fade is coming from. Aaron Jones was the clear MVP of Week 2 from a fantasy football perspective. His performance brought W’s to fantasy owners and $’s to DFS players. People are going to blindly fire him up in there Week 3 lineups, but this is a tough matchup for him.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens
PLAY: Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson hasn’t been great from a fantasy perspective this year. He set the bar extremely high with his 2019 showing. But this a Monday Night Football game of Patrick Mahomes vs Lamar Jackson. ESPN (and the refs) will make sure this one lives up to the hype. Lamar Jackson will be special.
FADE: Mark Ingram II
JK Dobbins was the Week 2 fade in the Baltimore Ravens game. That obviously turned out to be the right call. I’m still buying Ingram as the lead back for the Ravens, but it’s too crowded to feel comfortable firing him up in your lineups. Gus Edwards got a lot of play and JK Dobbins looked unreal when he was in. The only fantasy owners feeling good about this backfield are JK Dobbins dynasty owners. Editor's Note:Optimal DFSis the #1 app for building fantasy lineups for DraftKings and FanDuel in Apple's App Store. Download Optimal DFS in the App Store to build customized optimized lineups and get breaking news before everyone else in your league.Optimal DFSis not responsible for any decisions made, financial or otherwise, based on information provided by this application or blog. Optimal DFS cannot guarantee the correctness of the information contained within our application or blog. Read the original post here: https://optimaldfs.substack.com/p/plays-and-fades-week-3-fantasy-football
So, after Brady torched the Las Vegas Raiders for 369 passing yards and five total touchdowns on Sunday, it's worth wondering if the 21-year veteran is in the conversation to win his fourth NFL MVP award. The short answer: Yes. Odds on the 2019-20 NFL Regular Season MVP according to Bovada Sportsbook. July 22, 2019. NFL Season Props Odds to win 2019-2020 NFL AP MVP Patrick Mahomes +450 Andrew Luck +650 Aaron Rodgers +900 Drew Brees +1000 Baker Mayfield +1100 Tom Brady +1400 Carson Wentz +1500 Philip Rivers +2000 Russell Wilson +2000 If you were to wager on Kansas City -3, you would have to lay 5/6 odds (Bet $120 to win $100) instead of your normal 10/11 juice (Bet $110 to win $100). The return on Tampa Bay would be even-money (1/1) and a $100 wager would return $100. The total or over-under on Super Bowl 55 is hovering between 56 and 57 points. How to read NFL Las Vegas Odds Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr is listed at 80-1 to win the 2021 NFL MVP award. With the Raiders’ offseason work yet to start, these prices may offer a solid investment opportunity if betting MVP Super Bowl Prop Odds | 2021 Most Valuable Player Prop Bets . Specialising in American Vegas Style Odds, NFL , MLB, NBA, (graded, settled wagers only) before requesting a payout. You do not need to win or lose that amount. You simply need to put that amount into action. For example, this bonus has a 10x rollover. When you deposit Odds are automatically updated once a day. Best Super Bowl 2021 US Sports Betting Bonuses & Offers. FanDuel Sportsbook – Sign up here to claim the FanDuel Bet $5 to win $275 + Offers below!. Bet $5 to Win $275 Welcome Bonus: Sign up at FanDuel Sportsbook and make a minimum $10 deposit to win $275 on your $5 Super Bowl bet. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson won the National Football League Most Valuable Player award in 2019. Jackson became only the second unanimous MVP in NFL history (joining Tom Brady in 2010) to receive all 50 first-place votes. He led the league with 36 passing touchdowns, threw for 3,127 yards and had a passer rating of 113.3. 2019 NFL Superbowl MVP Las Vegas Odds. Home; NFL. NFL Odds and Lines; NFL 1st Half Odds; NFL 2nd Half Odds; NFL Moneyline Odds; NFL Articles & Free Picks; 2021 Super Bowl 55; NFL Injuries; NFL Teams; NFL Football Props; NBA. NBA Odds and Lines; NBA 1st Half Odds; NBA 2nd Half Odds; NBA Moneyline Odds; The NFL season in nearly finished and betting odds on who will win the NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2020 season are updated.. Last season's MVP, Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson, started at +600 odds (Bet $100 to win $600), but is currently off the board during a down season. Two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers has seen the biggest boost by going from +3000 before the season to the odds-on NFL MVP Odds, Most Valuable Player Regular Season Future | 2021 NFL Betting There are currently no lines available for this sport. Either there are no odds open to bet on, or the sport is not in season at this time.
Sports Betting Tips: NFL Football Teaser Betting Strategy and Tips (How to Win at Teasers) - Duration: 4:30. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 2,736 views 4:30 2020 Las Vegas Raiders Season Win Total Prediction, NFL Odds and Free NFL PicksGET VERNON CROY'S PREMIUM SPORTS PICKS 100% FREE HERE: https://www.docsports.c... Pregame.com's Vegas Runner looks back at NFL Wiseguys action from NFL Week 1 - with host RJ Bell. (September 16, 2010) Ahead of the 2019-2020 NFL season, Caesars gave Patrick Mahomes the best odds to win MVP again this season. Hear who Skip Bayless and Shannon Sharpe pick as their early MVP favorites. NFL Betting experts Donnie Rightside and Teddy Covers talk about the released Super Bowl 2020 Future Odds and which are looking like strong candidates to tak... 2020 Cincinnati Bengals Las Vegas Season Win Total Prediction, NFL Odds and Free NFL PicksCincinnati Bengals predictions, picks, and season win total odds fo... If you want to learn how to read betting odds in general check out this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ostbAM8STRkIn this video I show you how to read... The use of all video clips here fall within the legal standard set by the Fair Use Section of the Copyright Act of 1976, 17 U.S.C. § 107. This is not a real... Direct from Las Vegas, the WagerTalk handicapping crew look at the Vegas odds and give their NFL expert picks and predictions on the matchup between the Oakland Raiders vs Tennessee Titans ... #NFLStadiums #WorstToFirst #NFLRankingsIf you're new, Subscribe! → http://bit.ly/Subscribe-to-TPSWe’re in an era where seemingly every NFL team is desperate ...
