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🚀💎🙌 GME (Almost-)ULTIMATE DD 🙌💎🚀
EDIT 3 : CONGRATS TO ALL GME HOLDERS. TRUELY HONORED TO BE PART OF THE GME FAM. 🚀
Introduction
PDF VERSION HERE (20+ pages) with all the references and better quality illustrations but without updates and typo corrections. This is the FIRST VERSION of the post, but there could be more edits. I wanted to do a more extensive DD but as my exams start tomorrow I don’t have more time. If you want to take my work and extend it, please feel free to do so, just give a little shout out. FIRST AND FOREMOST, SHOUTOUT TO 🚀💎🙌 GME GANG 💎🙌 🚀, YOU’RE IN MY ❤️. This DD is just my own analysis. I put my money where my mouth is but this is definitely not advice. Do your own DD. Last thing: Some stuff might be unsourced in this post but everything is sourced in the pdf version. While it’s not impossible that I might have missed some stuff, most of the time I put the stuff that I quote from other sources in italics. My ego is not big enough to feel like reformulating other people’s ideas and even less to steal other people's ideas. All I do is just gather insightful facts, figures, ideas and analysis.
Big picture
1.1 Macroeconomic View
I will be brief here, I think everyone knows what’s up basically. Figure 1: although the USD is worth a lot less, the S&P 500 is doing alright. Thanks Jerome. Enthusiasm is the key word here as we are in an environment with a very accommodative monetary and fiscal policy (thanks for the stimulus checks). Equities and Bitcoin hit record highs thanks to positive vaccine news and the markets hope for a fiscal package. The Federal Reserve is going heavy on asset purchases, bailouts and loans. And its balance sheet is expanding as well as money supply. Interest rates are extremely low. Check for example, the Shiller PE ratio to see the enthusiasm driving the markets. On a macro-level side from the risks related to the pandemic, the only worrying signs would be the shrinking money velocity or a suddenly-rising inflation (hyperinflation is bullish for stocks but not for the real economy). That being said, we know how the FED and the government reacted to support the economy and the markets. Low interest rates and weak US dollar which is continuing to depreciate is very bullish for stocks overall. I keep the macroeconomic view very short for that GME correlation with the S&P 500 is low - about 28% over the last 6 months. Moreover despite GME’s heavy reliance on brick-and-mortar stores, GME continues to get closer to profitability even with the pandemic. If the pandemic would make the stock market to crash again during the trade, I wouldn't sell at a loss but wait a few days and then buy a LEAPS. This is my plan. Don't follow it, just make sure you have a plan in case it happens, it's important to avoid buying too much the first dip (because you might get a better price later) or worse, avoid a panic-selling and take a loss instead of tendies.
In years 3 and 4 combined, if just 5 million customers extend the subscription for two years, GameStop makes $180 million in incremental profit with zero cost involved. That's nearly a quarter of GameStop's current market cap in recurring income at 100% margin. - Justin Dopierala, “GameStop Revenue Sharing Agreement With Microsoft Shifts Sentiment.” SeekingAlpha.
2.2 Business Model and Management
Gamestop is omnichanneling into online activities according to Ryan Cohen recommendations although it doesn’t mean they will execute it perfectly this is bullish.
“GameStop needs to evolve into a technology company that delights gamers and delivers exceptional digital experiences – not remain a video game retailer that overprioritizes its brick-and-mortar footprint and stumbles around the online ecosystem.” Ryan Cohen.
The company attributes the losses this quarter to the end of the console cycle and the limited hardware and accessory availability that came with that, as well as various game delays, and an 11% reduction in its store base - partially offset by recaptured sales at other locations and online. → The company should be profitable very soondespite being priced for bankruptcy for a long time → Expectations are incrediblly low until recently, more investors are believing in the vision esp. with Ryan Cohen.
GME e-commerce sales were up 257% year-over-year.
GME reduced its selling, general, and administrative expenses by $115 million.
GME repaid $10 million in debt in Q3 2020.
GME isdiversifying sales to include more high margin itemslike PC accessories, PC monitors, etc (If I speculate, there may be partnerships with certain brands).
Focusing on loyalty programslike power ups andrebranding.
As of Feb. 2020, GameStop had 5,509 physical stores.
GME is closing unprofitable locations: they are closing 1,000 stores in Q1 2021 (by the end of March of 2021).
I’d like to quote a fellow GME gang member on this: It's no secret that brick and mortar is falling off, and if GameStop were to fight tooth and nail to remain a largely brick and mortar retailer they would go bankrupt in no time. It is also a fact that underperforming stores drain cash, which lowers net income and thus lowers earnings per share. Any store that is LOSING MONEY or is barely breaking even is keeping the stock price down because it's preventing future growth and killing net incomes. Closing underperforming stores will lead to a higher EPS and more cash that can be allocated to growth. - horny131313.
Gamestop is rebranding, and shifting to becoming the one stop video game and video game related product online retailer. While we haven't seen exactly what this will be, it is bullish to see them pivoting into other products besides just video games. Headsets, TVS, PC parts, you name it. You've seen the omnichannel memes, but we know that If they are bullshitting, Cohen will step in. Expect to see real progress made.
Some words from the last earnings:
"We anticipate, for the first time in many quarters, that the fourth quarter will includepositive year-on-year sales growth and profitability*, reflecting the introduction of* new gaming consoles*, our* elevated omni-channel capabilitiesand continuedbenefits from our cost and efficiency initiatives*, even with the potential further negative impacts on our operations due to the global COVID-19 pandemic.*" George Sherman, CEO.
Possible catalysts (from KYJELLYTIME69):
A possible new Nintendo console release in ~1-2 years
Currently distressed commercial REITs = ability to negotiate lower rent = more $$$
Likely return of inflation (debatable but money supply ballooned and we are seeing velocity pick up a bit) with JPOW promising to keep rates at 0% even when inflation comes back = bullish for all stocks, bears will get slaughtered
OG printer Yellen manning the treasury in a month + possible dem senate = more stimmy checks = more money going into GME
If sales improve and balance sheets continue improve, we might see more credit upgrades
Better sales = possible dividend reinstatement, I couldn't care less about dividends but guess who's going to be paying? The shorts lol. If Sherman had balls, he would pull an OSTK and announce a special dividend , which will actually lead to a short squeeze while wsb laughs collectively as we get meme returns from this boomer move.
2.3 The Short-Squeeze Thesis
Figure 6: Stare statistics from Oct. 2019 to Nov. 2020 In terms of metrics, the DTC (days-to-cover) actually decreases, lowering the probability to get a short-squeeze short-term. Don’t get me wrong, this DOESN’T mean that it can’t happen, the % of shares shorted is still crazy high. Days to cover: It gives investors an idea of potential future buying pressure. In the event of a rally in the stock, short sellers must buy back shares on the open market to close out their positions. Understandably, they will seek to purchase the shares back for the lowest price possible, and this urgency to get out of their positions could translate into sharp moves higher. The longer the buyback process takes, as referenced by the 'days to cover' metric, the longer the price rally may continue based solely on the need of short sellers to close their positions. Additionally, a high 'days to cover' ratio can often signal a potential short squeeze. This information can benefit a trader looking to make a quick profit by buying that company's shares ahead of the anticipated event actually coming to fruition. (Investopedia). In terms of corporate actions, here is a quote from September mentioning the hostile takeover from Ryan which would trigger a massive short-squeeze, here is the explanation: Short Squeeze Potential -If Ryan Cohen successfully negotiates a purchase price with the Board then the shareholders will have to vote on it. Unlike the proxy battle where Hestia and Permit were running a minority slate of directors, an offer to purchase GameStop would force institutions like Vanguard and Blackrock to call in their shares. By doing so, the shorts would be forced to close out their positions and GameStop would finally have the greatest short squeeze of all-time. Ironically, Cohen could use this opportunity to sell all of his shares and use the proceeds to entirely fund the acquisition of GameStop going down as the first person in history to acquire a billion dollar company... for absolutely nothing. In fact, his acquisition price would be less than zero. It will be exciting to see how it all plays out as according to Bloomberg/WSJ there are now 58 million shares short as of 8/31/2020 with only 65 million shares outstanding. If I were short, I'd be sweating bullets right now. This won't end well and will ruin many. Justin Dopierala is President and Founder of DOMO Capital. How to know when the potential short-squeeze could happen?
Massive volume in short dated calls. [...] If you have shares, DO NOT SELL COVERED CALLS FROM THEM. by doing this you make the likelihood of a squeeze decrease. - horny131313
Unwind their short position with some behind closed doors deal. A scenario like this could include: Melvin offering shares of other stocks at discounted prices in exchange for GME shares or to unload a portion of their short shares. The second party to this deal could also offer to buy GME shares for higher than market prices - horny131313
Melvin and BoA both have short positions, and are desperately trying to drive the price down. Unfortunately, it is getting harder and harder to convince people that gamestop is a failing business. They are sweating and will continue to sweat. Given the buy side volume, they could close these short positions gradually without triggering a massive squeeze, however it WILL drive the price up significantly higher than it is now. - horny131313.
2.5 What 2020 Has Taught Us?
I think at this point it is the wrong question to ask (is the stock being manipulated?). To me, the most important thing is what is the upside potential and the risks associated? Then, how to trade GME?
If you're new to gamestop, the volatility will seem scary but the shorts fight hard with this one. -10% days followed by +20% days are not unusual. - horny131313
Whether the stock is manipulated or not, MOST of the 2020 trading days were negative.
The worst daily returns were hard to handle honestly we are talking multiple worst than 14% daily drawdowns.
You could more than triple your money WITHOUT LEVERAGE.
Let’s say you bought late Apr. and sold late Aug. you could have been at -13% returns and +31% the next week if you had diamond hands. For the real diamond hands you had +147% returns the next 2 months.
Psychologically this was a hard trade for sure. But for those who had diamond hands, it was pretty amazing. If you don’t feel comfortable being at -20% or even -30% returns for months before the stock literally BLOWS UP… Reduce your position and diamond hand with a smaller size. Better to win with less than lose with a lot… TLTR: DIAMOND-HAND THIS OR DON’T TRADE THIS AT ALL.
Risks
3.1 Upside Risks
RC Ventures LLC increases its stake.
It could be VERY soon. On the 31 December 2020, someone bought 900K shares, it could be Ryan Cohen given the size of its last purchases:
This is very bullish because after the disclosure of additional buying from Cohen last time, even though it strangely took 1 full trading day for the market to pop up, GME shot up 29%.
Surprise investors with their holiday sales and/or EPS.
GME will more than likely beat earnings next quarter. I won't go into much detail into this because it is not my expertise, howeveru/Uberkikz11has done some amazing DD and has been doing so for a long time. This guy literally goes into GameStop stores to get his information. Read this:https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kh9na8/gme_4q20_financial_model/ - horny131313
RC Ventures LLC gets more than one seat on the board.
RC Ventures LLC begins a hostile takeover.
On top of its increasing stake, Ryan is supported by both a lot of small and now large investors too.
Moreover “there is a decent amount of evidence that Ryan Cohen spent the summer of 2020 hiring a badass lawyer and crafting a pretty solid plan to wrest control of a struggling Mall-based gaming retailer from its out of touch Boomer Board and CEO so he can turn it into an ecommerce juggernaut like his baby Chewy. the attorney listed on each of the 13Ds filed by RC Ventures. [...] Chris Davis, Activist Attorney Extraordinaire and His Successful Use of the Consent Solicitation to Remove Dipshit Boards/CEOs” - CPTHubbard.
Moody's Upgrades GameStop's credit rating a second time in a row
Hoping for a PR soon confirming the recent redemption of the 2021 notes. Potential credit upgrade from Moodys could come now that GME has officially redeemed 63% of their 2021 notes. If we don't get that now, we should get it in March when the entirety of the 2021 notes are retired. Debt considered investment grade and not junk is a big positive and one most overlook. - Stonksflyingup
Short sellers close a part of their position huge short position.
A major hedge fund takes a significant position on GME.
Dividend reintroduction.
3.2 Downside Risks
New short sellers open a position and current ones scale up theirs.
Momentum towards profitability dies out and the company goes bankrupt.
Honestly if you read this far you know this is extremely unlikely.
It is very unlikely for the shorts to continue to short the company especially when its credit rating is being upgraded - we will see if it keeps getting upgraded or not in March.
If the shorts get to short it more (or new short sellers open a position) it will:
Drive the stock price down (lower market cap), drive the short ratio higher making the unwinding of the short sellers even harder and as a result making the probability to have a short-squeeze VERY BIG if good events happen moving forward.
Push Ryan Cohen to accelerate its plans.
I will personally increase my share-position if it happens.
Conclusion
4.1 Prices Targets
Here is a summary of my post: When the short % of free float went from a high point (~160%) at around February 2020 to a low point (~140%) - which by the way are in absolute terms both huge numbers- the stock went up ~94% BUT most of the gain took place at 2 key moments: at the recovery of the market crash and then in late August which shows that 💎🙌-ing is key to capture most of the gains. Figure 13: GME returns from 3 Feb. 2020 to 1 Sept. 2020 Why do I say this? Because when holding the stock you could “feel” like you bled when you watch the stats:
Positive daily returns
Negative daily returns
49.3 %
50.7 %
But IT WAS IN FACT THE SHORT SELLERS WHO BLED HARD:
Best daily return
Worst daily return
23.0 %
-13.7 %
Imagine you sold GME when the -13.7% happened. You would not have captured the 94% returns. So just 💎🙌 and let those shorts go bankrupt. Table 8: PTs.
4.2 Valuations
“Wallstreetbets - GME 4Q20 Financial Model 🚀 🚀 🚀.” Reddit, www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kh9na8/gme_4q20_financial_model/. “GameStop Rips Higher as Hedgeye Pitches the Long Side of the Trade.” SeekingAlpha, 23 Dec. 2020, seekingalpha.com/news/3647009-gamestop-rips-higher-hedgeye-pitches-long-side-of-trade. Thanks for reading.
I think WSB is sleeping on a huge opportunity in Apple this month. Here’s why.
TLDR: Due to a confluence of factors (none of which are technical analysis), I believe a perfect storm is likely forming for a monster, historic ER occurring sometime in late January. The initial main factor for this was that COVID issues were causing a delay in the iPhone 12 launch, pushing it into to this quarter, but that led me to discover numerous other factors now making up my thesis. I believe not only will earnings grow, but the multiple could even expand. How to play it: calls dated end of Jan or mid Feb.
Analysis:
Happy hangover day, fellow autists. I believe opportunities are rare to know when an ER is going to blow it out of the water by enough to overcome IV crush based on more than just a hunch, and when they occur once or twice per year you should swing big. When I play earnings releases, I’m almost always just a seller of spreads so that I can profit off of theta/IV crush surrounding the ER (theta gang always wins). This time however, I’ve bought outright calls. Here is what I’m seeing with Apple:
The iPhone 12 delay could mean huge YoY comparisons.
What kicked all this off was that two months ago I realized we could be heading for huge numbers this quarter due to an atypical delay in the launch of the newest iPhone. Typically new iPhones are announced in mid-September with preorders beginning immediately and shipments beginning before the end of the month. However this year because of COIVD delays the launch date got pushed into October. The iPhone 12 preorders began mid-October with shipments a week later, and the iPhone 12 mini and Max began preorders November 6. And that means no sales of the new models counted in the quarter ended Sept. 30 (Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter)as they usually do. This year all of those opening day sales have fallen into the upcoming fiscal Q1, setting up a potentially huge quarter in sales and making for easy YoY comparisons right out of the gate. Here’s a Fortune article on the delay of the launch.
The “super cycle” rumors appear to be true.
As a lover of new tech, I always have to remind myself that the average person doesn’t care about incremental new features as much as I do. So when I heard rumors earlier this year that Apple could be facing a “super cycle” of upgrades due to 5G, I was skeptical. How much does the average person really care about spotty 5G service enough to jump on a new iPhone? But based on reports starting to come out, those rumors appear to be correct. I’ve seen a few articles suggesting a super cycle not seen since the iPhone 6. Here’s a Yahoo Finance article on Wedbush’s analysis. Here are some notable quotes from that article since I know we don’t read around here.
"Based on our recent Asia checks we believe the supply chain is anticipating low to mid 90 million iPhone unit builds … a roughly 35% increase from our original and Street forecasts," says Ives, who covers AAPL stock for Wedbush. Compare that to the firm's expectations for iPhone 12 unit sales over time. Three months ago, Wedbush expected 65 million to 70 million unit builds for the December quarter; it raised its outlook to 75 million units in late October; and in mid-December, it set a "stretch goal" in the mid-80 million range. Wall Street broadly sees AAPL selling 217 million iPhones in the company's fiscal 2021, but Wedbush's bull case is "north of 240 million units (250 million could be in the cards – an eye popping figure)" that would easily surpass the 231 million units the company sold in its fiscal 2015. "We have not seen a launch uptrend such as this in a number of years for Apple and the only iPhone trajectory similar would be the iPhone 6 in 2014 based on our analysis.".
That bump in production would represent a 30% year-over-year increase in smartphone models produced, and is also well ahead of current Wall Street expectations, Ives wrote.
It’s anecdotal, but I personally skipped the iPhone 11 upgrade because I was perfectly content with my XS Max, however I did buy the 12 Pro Max.
The iPhone 12 sales mix:
It’s not just that phone sales will be up on the iphone 12 launch, it’s the mix within those sales. Typically when Apple launches phones they sell more of the of the entry level new phones than they do the premium, because the total addressable market is bigger. That doesn’t appear to be the case this time. As early as September people were reporting that Apple was making more higher end iPhone 12 models than entry-level handsets anticipating a shift in demand, and they appear to have been correct. Last year the entry level iPhone 11s outsold the premium iPhone 11s by a three to one margin. This year almost immediately after launch people were reporting that the premium iPhone 12s were selling as much as the entry models. Since then, there have been reports trickling out that the premium iPhone 12s appear to actually be outselling the entry level versions.
Apple sold out of nearly everything they make for Christmas.
See further below for one of the reasons this may have happened, in both my “macro” and “risks” sections. Apple introduced a slough of new products from iMacs to watches this year, and they sold out of all of them. The list of sold-out products at Christmas included the iPhone 12 Pro and Pro Max; iPad, iPad Pro, iPad Air, and iPad Mini; MacBook Air and Pro; iMac and iMac Pro; HomePod mini, and AirPods Max.Here’s a Barron’s article mentioning the sell outs. Apple wearables, I would argue, are now what economists call Veblen goods. These are unique products where the demand curve actually increases as the price increases. This can happen in goods such as wine, where the consumer lacks the knowledge in how to evaluate the product so they take pricing as a signal of quality. But another reason you can get that skewed demand curve is if the product conveys status. One example of this is sports cars. You can buy cars with 90% of the performance of the ultra top end cars for 30% of the price, but that’s not the point of owning them, is it? How often are you really out at the track? Lambo isn’t in competition with $50k sports cars. They could raise the price $50k per car and people who can afford them would just want them more. Louis Vuitton bags and $50,000 Birkin purses are more examples. In fact with Birkin they not only constantly raise prices, they forbid people from buying them. You have to spend a lot of money on other lower tier products before you’re “allowed” to even buy a Birkin bag. This just makes new money women want them even more. Those are dramatic examples of course and Apple isn’t behaving that way, but Apple just introduced very overpriced, new over-the-ear headphones which cost almost twice as much as the leading competitor, and yet...Apple sold out of every single color in the first two weeks and hit a three month waiting list by Christmas on a product that I would assume due to its high pricing has very fat margins. Apple charging twice as much makes them more appealing, not less, because wearables are worn and thus seen by your peers (and the opposite sex).
The Twitter rumor mill is reporting parts moving at a brisk pace
I can’t track down the things I’ve read here and there on Twitter and I’m starting to run out of steam here, so you may have to do some searching on your own, but people who usually track movement of parts through the companies forming Apple’s supply chain and normally have a good track record with their reports have reported that parts are moving through the chain at a very brisk pace. This is addressed some in the reports on the iPhone supply chain in my earlier links.
App sales are crushing it.
Thanks probably in part to quarantine, app sales have been crushing it and grew ~35% this December compared to ~17% the prior year, meaning sales have grown at twice the pace.
Reoccurring revenue bundle numbers will be announced
The biggest thing I’ve learned from 2020 is that nothing matters more to the market than the narrative surrounding the reoccurring revenue bundle...aka subscriptions. A company announces its cutting its dividend, but then tells you that’s because its going to pour all that money into boosting its subscriptions? The stock skyrockets. Look at Disney. ATT may be able to pull this off as well if it can convince people of that narrative with WarneHBO max and cut its dividend to pour it into content, but that’s a big “if” for them. Apple launched their new reoccurring revenue bundle this year. I personally signed up for the premium tier and now owe Apple $30 per month for the rest of my life. I was already paying them to backup my phone to the cloud, and now their bundle has thrown me into Apple Music, Apple TV+, etc. I am firmly entrenched in the Apple universe whether I like it or not. It is these reoccurring revenue numbers that offer the possibility of earnings multiple expansion.
RISKS
Are sellouts due to high demand, or due to COVID-related production problems? I don’t know. Based on the reports I’ve read, some of which have been linked earlier in my post, it sounds like everything is running full speed in China and the supply chain is running at near or above a record clip. One possible risk is that this was not the case earlier this year and thus Apple sold out of things because they hadn’t produced enough heading into Christmas. I personally believe that production may have taken a huge hit early in the calendar year, but by mid to late 2020 this was no longer a significant issue. I also believe that even if sales have taken a slight hit due to production, the market wouldn’t really care. Markets are forward looking. They know COVID has impacted things globally, and even if Apple reports sales difficulties they will be paired with significantly increased guidance for Q2. New reports have suggested that Apple has had to increase its iPhone production plans for 2021 by 20-30% because of strong demand An announcement like that is not a recipe for a stock crash. Macro factors causing a crash. A lot of people around here appear to be scared of an impending crash. This seems to be based on the simple idea that stocks have run up a lot and therefore must crash. A reversion to the mean is imminent. I don’t see it that way and I think the economy is more complex than that. Just because something has gone up a lot does not mean it’s going to crash. People have been warning of a California real estate crash for 70 years. I’m a little bit older than you guys (by probably about 10-15 years) and I can remember the market frenzy of the dot.com boom. A lot of people were saying the same thing then, and while they were ultimately proven right, they were very early. I remember seeing another year to year and a half of enormous gains after hearing all those warnings. Of course the problem with musical chairs is that we never know when the music will stop, but I would argue if anything stocks are roughly fairly valued, not dangerously overvalued. As we go into 2021, we face the following conditions: a vaccine roll out that sometime between now and late ‘21 will lead us into a v-shaped recovery. The Krugman argument for this vision, and The Bloomberg argument for this vision. We also just had the Fed reaffirm 0% interest rates and the continuation of QE. Add to all of that very easy YoY earnings comps for the first two quarters of this year and this is not a recipe for a crash, it’s a recipe for a steady market melt up. Where are the rich supposed to put all their money in a 0% interest rate environment? 0% pushes up the value of all asset classes, and this is especially true of real estate and stonks. Generally speaking, predicting macro economic movements is a losing game, but all of those things combined with the easy YoY comps means I don’t feel the need to be concerned of an impending correction for at least the next two quarters. A much smaller factor but still a factor, I have seen it suggested that Apple will be among the larger beneficiaries of the stimulus checks going out, although those have not started rolling out until just now so that may have an impact on Q2 if any. Bad subscription numbers If subscriptions to Apple One flopped, this could significantly overshadow sales and earnings numbers. I personally feel Apple isn’t likely to seriously miscalculate predictions on a subscription bundle because they have their market dialed in, but I don’t know that for sure. Sales could have cratered in October Sales often drop a little in the weeks preceding a phone launch. What if phone sales tanked during the delays waiting for an iPhone 12? That could be bad. I’m encouraged by the fact that iPhone 11 models appeared to still be having good sales numbers when the iPhone 12 was launched (see links earlier in this post), but I don’t really know what October sales look like. COVID could have tanked all phone sales. This report says all phone activations generally tanked 23% on Christmas Day. Two thoughts I have on that, that number is for all phone activations, not just iPhones. And two, that’s just for Christmas Day itself. There could be a wide array of reasons activations were down on that one day. To counter that, this report says the iPhone was the best selling 5G phone, even in October despite the phone not launching until the second half of that month. Additionally that article mentions pent up demand for 5G apple phones that sales are likely to be strong going forward.
Technical Analysis
I don’t believe in technical analysis. Charts don’t know any of the things I just explained, and are therefore, in my opinion, useless to me. Maybe somebody has figured out a system for charts to predict the future, but I am not that person.
Price Target
I don’t pretend to know things like that.
Fun rumors
I’m not big on speculative rumors and momentum type plays, but if that’s your thing there are certainly rumors in the air. The most famous of which is the rumor that Apple is back to working seriously on an EV Car. Another is reports are just coming out in the last day or two that Apple is seeing new successes in developing foldable tech. Whether these things will impact the stock price isn’t really my cup of tea, but if it’s yours those are two things to consider.
Is my post an attempt at a WSB pump and dump?
I’m under no allusions that my own WSB post is going to alter the trajectory of a $2.25 trillion company in any meaningful way. That sort of thing may work on a post-IPO company that hasn’t had its lockup expiration yet and thus has a tiny float (aka PLTR or numerous other recent “to the moon” meme stocks) with limited float. (That’s not to say those aren’t great companies or great trades. I’m just sayin’).
My positions:
I’m more conservative than most of WSB. While I love this place with all my heart and love you guys for it, I believe risking it all to chase screenshot-worthy gains is moronic and not the path to building real, long-term wealth. Thus my positions are probably more conservative than you’d expect. I have 20% of my net worth tied up in Apple via LEAPs. 9/16/2022 AAPL $87.50 calls. I consider this to be essentially stock I hold for the long term. Delta is approaching 1 anyway so they practically are stock. Sometime in the depths of March I loaded up on FAANG LEAPs with the intention of actually holding them for years and then converting to shares. Those LEAPs were a little OTM at the time I bought them. I have no interest in day trading my significant LEAP positions so that’s going to sit there for the next two years. But I also have put an additional 15% of my net worth into short term calls on Apple to play the ER. I have Feb 19 $130 calls which were about 10-15% OTM at the time I bought them. They are currently ITM. I also have 1/29 $135s and 1/29 $141s. This puts 35% of my net worth into Apple.
How to get rich
I intend to cash out my short term calls after the ER, and I don’t intend to reinvest or roll them out because I suspect Apple will be fully valued by then and there are better plays out there. I intend to keep my LEAPS because I bought those for the very long term and because at the very least I should hold them until March to hit the long term capital gains tax rate. I intend to take my profits from the calls and push them into shorting NNOX and XPEV, both of which have significant lockup expirations coming in mid to late February which I believe will significantly impact the stock prices in the short term. I have no interest in shorting XPEV right now, because you guys are crazy as fuck and for all I know EV stonks could all run up another 50% in the next month. Right about the time the Apple ER hits should be perfect.
Criticism
If you think I’m wrong, I would strongly encourage you to comment. I don’t give a fuck about looking correct or saving face but I give many fucks about not losing money. If I’m wrong, I want to know it.
The Most Important Factor
This ain’t my first day around here, and I know that DD is absolutely useless without rocketships, therefore: APPLE TO THE 🌙 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀. Godspeed, fellow autists.
I am 25 years old make $75,000, live in Northern Virginia and work as a Senior Advisory Specialist
I live with my boyfriend, W., but we do not combine finances. Additionally, I would like to put a content warning here at the top: I discuss tracking food and weight loss throughout this money diary. Section One: Assets and Debt Retirement Balance - $19,195 in two 401ks (current and former company) and $18,478 in a Roth IRA (my grandparents set this up and matched the money I made working in high school/college - I'm very grateful that they set this up for me!) Equity - no equity currently, I rent and do not own a car Checking account balance - currently ~$5,000 (I try to keep it around this amount) Credit card debt - $0 (I pay it off every month) Student loan debt - $9,500 remaining to pay off the loans for my BA in political science (here's hoping I finish it off this year!) Stocks - $1,190 in stocks from my former company. I also have some miscellaneous other stocks that I was gifted when I was younger and I'm unclear on the value of them (my dad manages them for me) Savings - $1,500 (it took a big hit while I was unemployed this past summer) Section Two: Income Income Progression: High school (2012-2013) - I worked at a local office supply store making $7.50/hour. I did this for fun spending money a few days a week after school. College (2014-2017) - I worked two on-campus jobs. The first was as a front desk person at the fitness center beginning at the end of my freshman year; I typically did ten hours a week at this job. The second was as an assistant in our career center, and I did this for the entirety of my senior year; I typically did five hours a week at this job. Both paid $8.50/hour. Internship (2015-2017) - I studied abroad off-cycle from July to December in Australia, and was offered an internship doing recruitment and operations work at my mom's company after randomly meeting the COO in an elevator and impressing him in a brief conversation. What originally was going to be a five week internship went on to be part-time remote when I was at school, and full-time when I was home for the summer and on breaks. It paid $12/hour and introduced me to human resources and strategy & operations. Company #1, Job #1 (2017-2018) - After graduating college, I moved to begin working in Washington DC as an associate at a healthcare firm making $40,000/year. I really enjoyed this work and my team, even though there were some times I had to work long hours. I was promoted to a senior associate role after my first six months, which came with a 10% raise. Company #1, Job #2 (2018-2020) - I decided that, while I liked my role within the company, I wanted to gain client-facing experience. I applied for and moved into a analyst role in a different department at $52,000/year. I was excited about this role because I got to travel and train clients onsite one to three times a month and build up a lot of important business skills. About halfway through 2019, I was told that they wanted to pay me more because they felt my effort outpaced my seniority and was out of the blue bumped up to making $70,000/year. During this role, I was also eligible for up to a 10% bonus based on how my team did. Unemployment (2020) - Due to COVID-19, my company took a big hit being in the healthcare space. The vast majority of my team was made redundant in June 2020. While a super stressful time, I did get some severance and used it as an opportunity to assess what I really wanted in my next role; I knew I liked being client-facing, but realized I wanted to get back to human resources in some way. Company #2 (2020-present) - I took my current role as a senior advisory specialist in the fall. I was able to negotiate a $75,000/year salary and a 5% bonus. The work I do is very energizing and rewarding, and I'm hopeful I can stay here for a while and move up the ladder because I like what I do a lot! Main Job Monthly Take Home: I make $4380.90 each month after deductions. I get paid twice a month. Deductions (per paycheck) · Medical insurance: $29.50 · Dental insurance: $7.50 · Eye insurance: $2.75 · 401k contribution: $156.25 (I plan on increasing this after my student loans are paid off) + 4% company match Side Gig Monthly Take Home: I run a book blog on the side, and while I currently don't make any money off of it, publishers often send me advanced reader copies of books! I save a lot of money that way, because I am buying books constantly. Section Three: Expenses · Rent: $975 for my portion of the one bedroom apartment that I share with W. I pay slightly more than half because I make more money than he does. All utilities are included. · Student loans: $500 is the minimum I pay per month because I want them paid off as soon as possible (the minimum monthly payment is about half that). I usually throw extra money towards them when I have a low spend month. · WiFi and cable: $140.06, which is absolutely ridiculous and I keep saying I'm going to call Comcast and negotiate this down but get lazy and don't. Yell at me in the comments to do this! · Netflix: $14.88 (I also let my best friend use this) · Spotify: $9.99 · Hulu with live sports, HBO, Starz, and Showtime add-ons: W. pays · Amazon Prime: W. pays · Nail salon subscription: $40 (this is cheaper than the cost of a gel manicure and includes a free gel mani every month plus extra bonuses, which makes this very worth it despite sounding extravagant!) · Care/of vitamin subscription: $70 · Boxing membership: $179 for unlimited classes · WW: $15.11 (I'm on a six month deal currently) · Fitbit Premium: $9.99 · iPhone payment plan: $31.20 (this will end in November for my iPhone 11. I am still on my parents' unlimited data phone plan and have been told I never have to leave, which is a total blessing!) · Google storage: $2.12 · iCloud storage: $2.99 Additionally, I have an annual payment of approximately $2,750 for my life insurance policy; I have a blend of whole and term life. I am currently not making these payments, as my grandparents created a fund to pay the first several years of premiums as they felt it was important for me to get life insurance at a young age so it could start gaining cash value. I am incredibly grateful for this! Day One - Tuesday 1/19 7am: My alarm goes off and I am still tired. W. and I cuddle for ten minutes or so before he gets up to make us coffee. We drink our coffee in bed while watching a few YouTube videos from our favorite content creators; the two of us are very into a video game that we play together and consume a lot of content around it. 8:30am: Time to get back into work! We both work from home right now, so we move into the living room together. My inbox is surprisingly empty after a long weekend, so I dive back in to a client request that I didn't finish before closing my laptop on Friday. 9:00am: I have a few morning meetings, so I take a few minutes to get ready. I throw in my contacts and brush my teeth, then get dressed from the waist up in a comfy gray Fortune Ivy sweater and hoop earrings. I make another cup of coffee to keep my energy up. 9:25am: I move into the bedroom to take my meetings. I have a bed tray for my laptop, which makes it feel more desk-like on my bed. I first have a meeting with another member of my team to discuss how we're dividing up a project that we're working on together, followed by two town hall meetings. At some point during my meetings, W. texts me that he ordered an energy drink powder that we've been meaning to try and Venmo requests me for my half ($23). I munch on the last four donut holes we have left over from the weekend for a snack during my meetings and make sure to log what I eat in my WW app. 1:00pm: Out of meetings and in need of a break. W. comes into the bedroom and asks me if I want to go out on a quick walk, which I happily agree to. I throw on Girlfriend Collective leggings, my lucky Rangers sweatshirt, ballet flats, and a freshly washed mask and we head out. After a good 20 minute walk, W. offers to pay for McDonald's for lunch, which is great but definitely not WW friendly. I get a 10 piece nuggets and large fries, and W. gets himself a few burgers. He pays and we take it home to eat on the couch and chat for a few minutes before I have to get on more work calls. 2:00pm: Time for more meetings and project work! I return to the bedroom and call into meetings for an hour, including a weekly meeting I facilitate, and then put my 800th rewatch of Grey's Anatomy on the TV in background while I work. 5:30pm: I log off of my laptop right on time for a Facetime date with my DC best friend, A. We met at my first job and have been close since the minute we met. She just moved into a new apartment and got a new job, so she gives me a tour of the new place and we catch up for about half an hour. After we hang up, I say hi to W. for a few minutes and then go hop in the shower. I do my usual skincare routine (a bevy of Ole Henriksen products, I swear by them) before throwing on comfy clothes and joining W. in the living room. 7:00pm: I throw the Rangers-Devils game on my iPad (I'm a diehard New York sports fan except for basketball) and text my hometown best friend, B., about absolutely nothing while W. plays a video game for a while. I'm not super hungry, so W. heats up leftover tuna casserole for dinner while I just cut up an orange. At some point we mute the hockey game to watch a few episodes of The Real Housewives of Salt Lake City, our first forray into the Housewives franchise which we've quickly become addicted to. We brush our teeth and make it to bed around 10:30pm. Total: $23 Day Two - Wednesday, 1/20 7:00am: Usual morning routine: wake up, cuddle, coffee, and videos. I get out of bed to make the coffee this morning. 8:15am: I join W. for a quick morning shower before work starts for the day. I also do my weekly weigh in and I'm down almost another pound! The progress is slow, but that is also the healthy way to lose weight. I mark it down and log my coffee. 9:00am: I text with my mom about today's inauguration while I work. She wants to know if I can hear anything from my place, but besides the occasional sirens, there is no big fanfare yet. I set a reminder on my phone to turn on the news in a bit to listen. 10:45am: I finish up a difficult client request and send it off to their account team. W. gets me a lemon Pellegrino from the fridge for me to enjoy during my 11:00 meeting. 12:30pm: Out of my meetings and we have a new president!!! W. gives me a recap of Biden's speech and I find myself getting emotional after watching the video of Kamala getting sworn in. After wiping away the tears, I throw some chicken, buffalo sauce, and seasonings into our pressure cooker so we can have easy lunches: chicken sandwich and salad for W., chicken quesadilla for me so I can easily measure out how much of each food item I'm using. I log my food and we eat together during a quick fifteen minute break. 2:00pm: After changing out my water bottles (I like to drink out of reusable water bottles over drinking glasses, not really sure why) I remember why I don't like to use this one. I log on to the Hydroflask website and order a 21oz bottle with the sports cap lid ($28.58). I pick a color that's on sale because it's cheaper, find a coupon code for free shipping, and go through Rakuten so I can get 2% cash back. I also figure now is as good a time as any to get dressed since I have to be on camera for my afternoon meetings, so I throw on a camel and black polka dot Papermoon blouse and black Beyond Yoga leggings. 3:45pm: Weekly check in with my manager while I snack on a sliced cucumber. He and I discuss my 2020 review, which he literally had to do for me when I was less than a month in the role, and what my goals for 2021 are. I am setting my intentions on Friday, and I am very excited to think through what I want to accomplish this year. We discuss a few other projects and end a little earlier than expected. A friend of mine is streaming on Twitch, so I put his stream up on the TV while I work on a data project and gift a sub to a fellow viewer ($5.99). I see that someone has put a 4:30-5pm meeting on my calendar for tomorrow, so I have to cancel out of my 4:45 boxing class. Sigh. 5:45pm: I wrap up my work and head out to chat with W. for a bit. We decide to play our favorite video game for a while, so we log in and start playing in duos. We get a win in our very first game! After a while, our good friend N. joins us, so we switch to trios. At some point during what becomes a marathon gaming session, W. makes himself a frozen pizza and I drink the last two Stella Cidres we have in the fridge. Brush our teeth and head to bed around 11pm. Total: $34.57 Day Three - Thursday 1/21 3:57am: I wake up for absolutely no reason. I hate when this happens. It takes me over an hour to fall back asleep. 7:00am: Usual morning routine, cut a little short for me to get ready for an 8:30 meeting. 10:00am: In desperate need of a break from my work, I log onto Etsy to pick out some cute candles for A. as a little housewarming gift. I have to text her for her new address, which kind of ruins the surprise, but I know how much she loves candles so I do it anyway ($32.86). 1:00pm: I get off of a client call that I shadowed with a member of my team. I have just decided on my focus area, hence why I am trying to get more exposure to the client work here. My teammate and I debrief and agree that I'll continue to shadow the calls that she does with this client so I can see the whole process through. 3:00pm: Out of another team meeting and exhausted from work. My 4:30 meeting cancels, and I'm bummed for a few minutes because I cancelled my boxing class to be in that meeting. But my mood turns around almost instantly - I got off the waitlist for the 6pm class! I text W. so he knows, and he asks if I can make him dinner before I go because he doesn't want to wait until I get back to eat. Fair enough. I agree and get back to work on my data project. 3:30pm: I get an email with the return label for my Fitbit. I've had it for a year and it randomly started giving me a rash on my wrist, so Fitbit is reimbursing me the total amount I paid for it. Customer service at its finest! I send the label to my Fedex store for pickup tomorrow, since I don't have a printer ($0.52). 5:30pm: I wrap up my work for the day and throw on Old Navy active leggings and a tank, tie back my hair, mask up, and head out the door to the boxing studio. It's endurance day and we do eight minute blocks instead of six, so I am dying by the time class is done. After class, I go to Target to pick up a few miscellaneous items we need: half & half, white vinegar, and chocolate peppermint stick Luna bars ($10.64). I mobile order and stop by Chipotle on the way home to grab a dinner of crispy chicken tacos and chips and guac ($16.23). 7:30pm: I stop by the concierge desk on my way back into the building to grab packages I have waiting and to catch up with my favorite concierge. She is a delight to talk to, but busy tonight, so I don't stay too long. Once home, I devour my tacos in about four minutes and then shower before putting on the Laker-Bucks on the iPad while W. plays video games. We migrate to the bedroom after halftime to finish it and are both exhausted that we fall asleep immediately after. Total: $60.25 Day Four - Friday 1/22 7am: Usual morning routine. After watching two videos, W. announces that he isn't feeling well and is taking a day of PTO. I get him tucked comfy into bed with a movie and start my work day early. I put Grey's Anatomy on the TV while I work. 11am: I am hungry after powering through work all morning, so I place an order for a cheese pizza from Wiseguys ($21.99). A nice quick walk will feel good. 11:30am: I mask up and head out to pick up the pizza, stopping by CVS on the way to get a Red Bull for W., a Diet Coke for myself, and a bottle of Benadryl because I ran out ($27.27). I eat a slice of pizza while watching a bit of a Twitch stream before getting back to work. I also spend some time texting with B., as well as my older sister, C. 1:30pm: Back to back calls. When they're over, I check in on W., who unfortunately only feels worse. He decides to try and nap, and also informs me that he wanted to watch a Marvel movie so he added Disney+ to our Hulu subscription. He pays for that, but I'm happy we'll finally be able to watch those shows we've been missing out on! 4:30pm: Done with my projects and decide to call it a little early today. I appreciate that my manager doesn't particularly care if we stop early when all of our work is done, and I need to go to the Fedex store. I listen to one of my curated Spotify playlists (a lot of Halsey, Taylor Swift, Joan, and Flor are on this one) while I walk there to pick up the label I had printed. As I walk out of the store, several of my music friends start texting me - Halsey cancelled her summer tour. I am bummed because I was supposed to travel and go to several shows with friends. I make a mental note to start cancelling hotel reservations and request my Ticketmaster refunds tomorrow. 5:30pm: Manicure time! I've started doing gel manicures every other week because I have a horrible nail biting habit and this is the only way I can stop myself. I catch up with my favorite nail tech and the salon owners over a glass of sparkling rose. Today we do a nude-pink polish with black and white polka dots. When that's done, I also poke around at the beautiful jewelry they sell and pick out a pair or multicolored acrylic bow earrings. My subscription covers the manicure, so I only have to pay my tip (25% of the service cost) and for the earrings ($24.87). I text W. to let him know I'm on my way home and he asks if I can pick up NyQuil for him. I pop into CVS on the way home to get it ($16.94). 7:30pm: W. and I have a quiet evening, bouncing between a few TV shows and basketball games. We call it an early night and go to bed before 10. Wild Friday! Total: $91.07 Day Five - Saturday, 1/23 8:30am: I wake up feeling pretty well rested. W. is still sleeping, so I get out of bed quietly and head out to the living room. I answer a few work emails that came in last evening, including a stretch project to present some webinars later in the year! I used to facilitate webinars in an old role of mine, so I'm looking forward to flexing that muscle again. I also submit my Ticketmaster refund requests, cancel some hotel reservations, and peruse my favorite auction website. I spy my dream Louis Vuitton bag (Speedy 40 in canvas and leather) at what could be a steal. I do some mental math at what would be the max I would splurge on it and set a max bid. I'm currently winning and text B. with excitement. 9:45am: W. texts me that he's awake but still not feeling well. I crawl back into bed for some snuggles and ask him what he needs. He wants bagels, so I agree to go out to pick them up if he pays for them. He orders a BEC on an everything bagel for himself and a multigrain bagel with butter for me. I throw on black Girlfriend Collective leggings, a Halsey tee, and my Adidas superstars, grab my mask and jacket, and head out the door. It's a little chilly, but it feels good. It's a quick turnaround to get back with the bagels. W. and I eat them in bed while watching some Real Housewives. 12:00pm: We're still in bed. Oops. We transition into watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and W. orders us some Popeye's to eat throughout the day: 12 piece spicy chicken, biscuits, fries, mashed potatoes, and a large Diet Coke to split. We will heat up leftover Popeye's for lunch someday this week. I embrace the fact that this is not going to be a good WW week for me, and remind myself it's okay to be human and have some indulgent weekends. Progress, not perfection! 5:00pm: W. dials into his weekly virtual D&D session and I decide to solo queue my video game for the evening. I debate having some wine, but decide the fast food was probably enough for my stomach and that I don't need to add alcohol into the mix. W.'s session wraps up around 9:30, so we chat while I clean the apartment a bit before taking a quick shower. I towel dry my hair, toss on some weekly skincare (eye cream and a fancy serum that I'm not really sure what it does, it just makes my skin glowy) before settling into bed. Total: $0 Day Six - Sunday 1/24 3:00am: I wake up congested as can be. I get two Benadryl and a Zicam from the bathroom, lay back down, and pray for sleep to come. 9:10am: Well, I guess sleep came. I missed the start of the booking window for upcoming boxing classes, but luckily there are still openings in all the classes I wanted. I'm trying to up my workouts, so I decide to try the Wednesday morning class as well. Maybe I'll like being a morning workout person? 11:00am: W. and I both decide to call our respective moms. My mom and I try to talk at least once a week on the phone (we also text every day, I just haven't mentioned it, whoops) and we catch up on random bits of each other's lives for about 45 minutes or so. I tell her about Halsey cancelling tour and we're a bit worried, as we're supposed to see Maroon 5 together later in the year after it got rescheduled from 2020. Hopefully by the fall we'll have herd immunity, though I'm not super positive that concerts will happen. I miss concerts :( 12:00pm: I do a bit of apartment maintenance: taking out the trash, breaking down boxes and taking them to recycling, wiping down the countertops, etc. W. comes out to the living room when his phone call ends and we try to decide what we want to do. W. is still not feeling great, which is worrying, but he has no COVID symptoms. He gets a quick telehealth appointment and is assured that he most likely has the cold/head flu thing that is going around and should stay home to not burden the healthcare system. The doctor assures him that me coming/going from the apartment shouldn't transmit whatever W. has and that while he should stay home until he is feeling better, as long as I'm sanitizing and showering often, I can leave. I'm guessing a lot of people are asking that question since the doctor told him that unprompted, and I'm relieved to know that I won't be unknowingly getting someone else sick. 1:00pm: W. and I decide to order Vocelli's for a late lunch/early dinner: bacon and cheddar pizza rolls and a build-your-own stromboli with bacon, spinach, and extra cheese. I have a GrubHub gift card from Christmas so we don't have to pay out of pocket for this meal. We play some video games together until the food gets here, then pause to eat and watch an episode of Shark Tank. When we finish eating, we go back to gaming because there isn't much else to do while W. is sick. 7:00pm: I move into the bedroom so we can watch the Rangers-Penguins game on my iPad while he plays a different video game and I scroll on my phone. My dad randomly calls me, and I'm worried something happened to my grandpa (he's my last living grandparent and lives alone). Luckily, Grandpa is fine and my dad was just jealous that I talked to my mom this morning while he was out running errands. He's adorable. We catch up for about ten minutes before he has to go. When 8:00 rolls around, we switch over to the Wizards-Spurs game since they're finally playing again and mute the hockey game. Both teams lose and I'm a sad sports fan. We brush our teeth and throw on some Futurama to fall asleep to. Total: $0 Day Seven - Monday, 1/25 7:00am: Usual weekday wakeup routine. When it's time to get to work, W. decides he'll work from the bedroom so he can continue to rest. We order Starbucks (peppermint mochas for both of us, turkey and pesto panini for him, sprouted grain vegan bagel for me) on UberEats and split the cost because we wouldn't normally have it delivered ($14.87). I listen to calls while I work and get dressed in a bright color Girlfriend Collective set and black Forever 21 active tank to try and offset the dreary weather. 10:00am: Out of my first set of meetings and I run the laundry down to the laundry room ($3.25). I listen to a Twitch stream while I work and continuously check on the Louis Vuitton I'm bidding on. The auction ends tonight at 8pm and I'm still winning! 1:00pm: Still working through projects. I have been outbid past the maximum I set for myself on the Louis Vuitton, which is disappointing but I'm sure I'll get one eventually. I can still dream about it in the meanwhile :) 2:15pm: I take a quick break to package up my old Fitbit and place an order for a replacement. It ends up being free because of my full refund; the only cost is not having a tracker for a week or so. Could be worse! I make myself an energy drink using the powder that we ordered earlier this week to fuel my afternoon meetings with some non-coffee energy. 4:30pm: I throw on my sneakers and mask, grab my gym bag, and head off to boxing. After a few tough client requests today, throwing some punches feels amazing! 5:30pm: Out of class and off to Safeway and Target for some filler groceries. I did a big food shopping last Monday and we ended up doing a lot of takeout, so we don't need much. I get milk, yogurt, frozen berries, ciabatta rolls, frozen popcorn chicken, peanut butter pretzels, and two types of cereal. I text W. to let him know I'm on my way home ($23.70 for my half) and despite the drizzle, it is a refreshing walk. 6:30pm: Freshly showered and time to decide what to do for the evening. I find a movie, Collateral, by doing a reference search for a movie vibe that I loved (Inside Man, if you're curious) but am disappointed to find out it's not available on any streaming service. W. saves the day by telling me we actually own it on DVD but have never watched it, and lo and behold, it's buried in our giant plastic tub of DVDs. Movie night saved! We curl up on the couch and watch the movie with leftover Popeye's. 8:45pm: The movie is done and I'd give it a solid 4/5 stars. While discussing our favorite parts of the movie, we get into a random fight. I find myself getting heated for no reason, take a deep breath, and ask him to explain his side. W. has severe anxiety, and it turns out he had a few anxiety attacks during the movie so he wasn't articulating himself properly. We talk it out and he apologizes; he's made a lot of progress on dealing with his anxiety, but he has a long way to go. Not wanting to end the night on a bad note, we decide to stay up a little later than usual so we can watch some more Real Housewives and feel better by the time we go to bed. Asleep by 11:30. Total: $41.82 Weekly Expenses: Food + Drink: $118.71 Fun / Entertainment: $5.99 Home + Health: $68.06 Clothes + Beauty: $24.87 Transport: $0 Other: $33.38 Lastly, reflect on your diary! This diary was very typical in some ways, and atypical in others. I normally cook a lot more, but with W. being sick I definitely used that as an excuse for takeout, hence why I'm following WW to try and lose weight! I think if I continue to be careful with my spending I can pay off my student loans this year and build my emergency fund back up, so I'm definitely buying less "fun" things in 2021… but if another Louis Vuitton comes around I'll probably bid on it :)
In-depth look At Mihoyo's History, misconception about Gacha gaming industry, and Genshin Impact's future
You Are The Real MVP - Why Genshin Impact Is The Real Game of the Year in 2020:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLxgyp0pnMQ Hi all, I see there is a lot of anger and anxiety toward Genshin Impact due to the wide audience it brought to the table, as well as a lot of misconceptions about the gacha gaming industry. I am 40 years old and have been gaming for over 30 years. I have 300+ DAYS /played in World of Warcraft and recently, over 1000 hours in Path of Exile with popular build guides with hundreds of replies. I also have played just about every major hit of every era on every platform. I really want to tell you who Mihoyo really is, how the gacha gaming industry works, and what Genshin Impact's future looks like. Mihoyo's History In 2011, three college students from Shanghai Jiao Tong University (comparable to Cornell in America) released their first game, FlyMe2TheMoon. When they graduated in 2013, they used their own money to make the first Honkai game (released as Zombiegal Kawaii overseas). This game allowed players to farm gold coins to buy all weapons and gear, only spend real money to speed up progress and came with glorious two players co-op way ahead of other mobile games at the time. At end of the day, players just didn't pay money for it. When they took it to investors, they were laughed at and ridiculed by everyone. Nobody is going to pay money for this silly anime stuff! You guys don't know how to monetize a game! Both of these games are still available on App Store, feel free to download them to check them out! In 2014, on the verge of bankruptcy, the team learned monetization model from Puzzles & Dragons, the first-ever mobile game to break a billion dollars, and released Honkai 2 with the same art style and gameplay. The biggest change was moving to the gacha model. The game became a top-10 grossing title in China, released to overseas market as Guns GirlZ - Mirage Cabin and Guns Girl - Honkai Gakuen. Mihoyo the company was born. Today, Mihoyo has over 1000 employees and pays them more money than titans like Tencent and Netease, and runs their office in the ultra-expensive heart of Shanghai business district. Despite Genshin Impact's smashing global success and player's thirst for more content, they gave many of their employees a full 8 days break, standard with the 10/01 Chinese national holiday, for the historic job they did with the global launch. They understand it is a marathon, not a sprint. For Mihoyo, the most important metric for their title will always be LIFETIME REVENUE, and they do not abandon their titles. All of them are still available. Honkai 2 is still getting content updates six years after release, even if the game itself is nothing more than a piece of history for them at this point. Honkai Impact 3 hit an all-time high revenue month this year, still makes a few hundred million dollars a year in China/Japan, three years after release, and Mihoyo took every dollar they made and spent an unprecedented 100 million dollars on a mobile game we know as Genshin Impact. You can count on Mihoyo to treat its most ambitious title ever with love and care, but you must remember they will always prioritize LIFETIME REVENUE over any other metric, which is what successful companies do because it is the only way to make the product best in class. Fate Grand Order - Genshin Impact's TRUE inspiration In 2015, Fate Grand Order was released as a turn-based mobile JRPG, the first six months it scored just $100 million dollars, and was on the verge of sinking into irrelevance. Five years later, the game grossed 4 billion dollars and became the most successful PVE game on any platform since GTA 5. How did it happen? Many say it is the fate IP, but the truth is fate's IP is nothing special in a sea of big IPs trying to make a splash in mobile and failed miserably, just ask Nintendo how their two Mario games performed, or Square about their countless Final Fantasy mobile games. 80% of the billion-dollar games on mobile are actually brand new IP's. The biggest challenge for every PVE game-as-a-service is monetization. PVP games like League of Legends and Fortnite do not need huge content updates to stay fresh and can maintain much higher daily active user counts to sell cosmetics, make $5 per player, and still hit a monster year. Monetizing PVE games is much harder. Players simply run out of things to do and quit the game, no matter how quickly you can produce content. Games like Path of Exile and Warframe struggle to break 100 million a year in revenue. PVP gacha games like Summoners War and AFK Arena can rely on whales dueling each other to force meta changes, and they grew into billion-dollar franchises in their own right. But Fate Grand Order had a different idea in mind, what if you design amazing characters that are truly desirable, and price them at a low gacha rate so it takes thousands of dollars for rich players to max out their box by pulling multiple copies? You are never going to have the player base of a Candy Crush, let's try to maximize our revenue ceiling from whales instead, and make players emotionally attach to their characters because they are so well designed. The rest was history. While there are indeed many generous gacha games like Granblue Fantasy, Azur Lane, Dragalia Lost, etc, none of them are in Fate Grand Order's tier if you look at their annual numbers, not even in the same ballpark. Other multi-billion dollar franchises like Puzzles and Dragons, Monster Strike also follow the same concept of greatly increasing the limit of what a whale can spend on a PVE game to max out a character. And yes, we are talking about providing strong benefits for getting multiple copies of the same character. The numbers have proved time and time again, that maximizing whale spending in a PVE game is far more revenue than maximizing the number of monthly card players. Genshin Impact's Target Audience Any product that tries to be everything for everyone is doomed to fail. Mihoyo has very clear audiences in mind:
Players who love anime graphic and ARPG, there is simply no AAA game out there in this genre. Tales series, Xenoblade, etc. are all low budget, low sales games. Granblue Relink is single platform and dead on arrival. There is no dominant franchise at all.
Players who love Zelda's open-world exploration and environment interaction, but hate the difficult puzzles and survival/weapon durability/ammo aspect, and want constant content updates. Hey, a co-op mode with a real RPG system sounds amazing!
Mobile players who want more than a simple game like Fate Grand Order. They want to do dailies during commute and don't mind doing harder content on PC/console. The game needs to look good on a big screen at home. They don't want to learn/maintain two different PVE games given how time-consuming these games are.
Players who retired from MMORPG/ARPG's due to real-life commitments. Many of us who played World of Warcraft have kids now, and the outdated graphics, 20 buttons skill bar, the social requirements for raids . . . it is just too much to keep up. We want a simpler game that looks good and takes far less time to learn and play.
And let's just say they hit it out of the park with the greatest launch in gaming history. Never before a game hit PC/PS4/iOS/Android with cross-play on day one in 100 countries, 13 text language and 4 fully voiced languages, never before a game hit top 5 grossing in China/Japan/US/Korea at the same time, I don't even recall a marketing campaign did so well across so many drastically different regions and cultures. The AAA graphics, sound, incredible polish, you don't need me to tell you why this game is amazing. But from the competition's standpoint, the launch itself was like watching a bronze player climb to grandmaster overnight, and the game's biggest strength. Far bigger companies, franchises, do not dare to even think about launching a game at this scale. Mihoyo released the failed Honkai 1 overseas when the company was on the verge of collapsing, they always punched way above their weight when it comes to global releases. Make no mistakes about it, this was never meant to be a single-player AAA game or a direct Diablo 3 / Path of Exile / Warframe competitor. It was meant to be a game that converts PC/console players to gacha gamers, by casting a wider net than any mobile game ever. They only need a small percentage of PC and console players to change their behaviors. The rest of them can play for free or leave and it won't hurt them at all. The monthly card is designed as a super good deal (look, WAY cheaper than World of Warcraft $15 per month) to get PC/console players to spend for the first time ever, breaks down their "why pay for a free game" defense. Once they pay once, the pity 5 star is always just a few dozen more pulls away, let me buy another pack! Before you know it, monthly cards are converted to dolphins, dolphins are converted to whales. It is by far the strongest business model for a PVE game today, and people who are new to the genre won't know what hit them. Genshin Impact has an excellent chance to end Fate Grand Order's reign as the #1 most successful PVE game on any platform since 2016, by the virtue of being on every platform, and the same version across all regions. LIFETIME REVENUE = Active Player Base * Spend Per Player * Longevity For every game as a service, balancing these three variables is an incredibly difficult task. Can Mihoyo increase the rate on an event (like Cy Games gala events), put up a Diluc banner, and greatly increase spend per player? Yes, but they will provide less reason for people to pull on other days and lose out on long term revenue. Likewise, the resin limitation is to prevent even whales from maxing out their characters and moving onto other games, that is why they have a hard limit on resin refill. Player progression is meticulously controlled to ensure content can keep up. A huge part of internal testing is to test how quickly a player of each spending level can go through content. Two-day, three-day, seven-day, and thirty-day player retention are critical metrics to F2P mobile games, you will always lose a huge number of players during these transitional phases. These are tried and true methods in gacha gaming to preserve the maximum number of players over the long haul. It is basically a much more advanced progression control than say, World of Warcraft's weekly raid lock outs. You have to FORCE your players to take breaks, or you will lose them way faster than you can churn out new content. All four dailies, spend resins, and open-world exploration for crafting/ascension materials, a couple of chests/quest you missed, that is a health 60 minutes of gameplay. Gacha games provide resources for the next pull on every daily, every quest, every event. Getting a five star is a better feeling than getting any item drop in MMORPG/ARPG. Gacha games have a much stronger hold on its players because of this addiction, you are always very close to the next pull! Genshin Impact takes it a step further to actually encourage you to do single pulls over ten pulls. Over time resources will inevitably be loosened up as more contents are released, and daily quests and slowed down progression is there to keep you playing. Behind the scenes, there is an ultra-complex data model that works tirelessly to balance all three variables. Looking at Mihoyo's track record with Honkai Impact 3, they know what they are doing to maximize LIFETIME REVENUE. With every gacha game like this, the developer has a price point they need to hit on a five star, then based on the competition they usually adjust the price significantly higher than what they consider to be acceptable. Whether it is gacha rate or stamina, once you reduce the price, you can never, ever increase it again. Start high and drop it when you need to is a much better strategy, and players think you listened to their feedback, win-win! If the daily active user doesn't drop while you keep the price high, why lower the price? The developer and player are always in a tug of war, with the developer testing player's limit on what is acceptable. It is just like how Apple kept iPhone with 2GB of memory and tiny screen size for a very long time because they are looking at the overall LIFETIME REVENUE, not because they didn't know their product needed these features. Genshin Impact is priced at a premium because it has no competition, just like how Apple iPhones were priced at an ultra-premium when it first came out. Over time, prices will drop, resources will come easier, but until there is a real competitor, they do not need to care what lesser gacha games do. Do you think KeQing should be priced the same as a gacha character with PS1 graphics? Genshin Impact's Future 100 million dollars estimate from Sensor Tower in two weeks does not include PC, PS4 and Chinese Android. Chinese Android revenue has been 1.8 times of China iOS for Honkai 3, many in the Chinese gaming industry speculate the true global revenue number of Genshin Impact is easily double of what Sensor Tower shows. Mihoyo is a private company and it fired one of the employees who bragged about the 09/15 China PC numbers, which was 10 million dollars, so we will never know the exact figures unless they go public. Don't expect Mihoyo to ever share revenue/player base numbers, that is just not how they operate. There is no way the game can continue the 100 million dollars a week pace, that is 5 billion dollars a year, so for haters out there, you will see a massive decline in the player base between content updates, you will see the game falling out of top 10 grossing, you will get your "I told you so" moments when the weekly revenue drops by 50-70%. It is perfectly normal for gacha games between banners, and what Gensin Impact is doing is completely unsustainable. This is called filtering out users and building a stable player base. However, even with the inevitable massive decline, this is a game destined to be a multi-billion dollar franchise. I personally give it a very conservative estimate of two billion dollars in three years. It will easily outperform the likes of BOTW, Cyberpunk 2077, etc. by the end of the first year in terms of the player base, hours played, and revenue. It will take money away from all other gacha games and force other developers to step up their game. It will take money away from long-standing multi-billion dollar PC PVE franchises like Dungeon Fighter Online, and to a lesser degree, MMORPG's like FF14. It will encourage companies to play with bigger budgets and provide PC/console releases for bigger mobile releases like Diablo Immortal, instead of relying on emulators. It will even change the monetization model for western F2P games. Iksar, lead designer of Hearthstone has been playing Genshin Impact since release. Imagine if Hearthstone didn't allow you to craft cards, and provided benefits to getting multiple copies of the same card. It is way too late for Hearthstone to change now, maybe there is still time to change Diablo Immortal's monetization model, I believe they will need either gacha or real-money auction house to be competitive. But will Genshin Impact shake up the AAA industry? My personal opinion is no. Japanese developers do not have the technology to make mobile games at this level, you just need to look at the top 20 grossing Japanse mobile games. Western developers do not have the artwork to make characters so attractive, I mean just look at Baldur's Gate 3 and Cyberpunk 2077 characters, will whales spend $1000 on them? Whales spend enough money in gacha to pick up girls in real life many times over, many of them are ultra-rich and live a lavish lifestyle, just showing anime assets is not enough to win them over. In all of my years playing Western games I have never been attached to a female character as I did with Artoria aka King Arthur of Fate Grand Order, I played the game for six months even if I don't really like turn-based JRPGs, and always enjoyed listening to her "Excalibur". Mihoyo is coming very close with some of Genshin Impact's character designs. I am not sure if Western culture is capable of creating the type of characters that can connect with players on an emotional level. Lara Croft is definitely not it. I believe Western gaming's general pursuit of realism and grittiness hurts them when it comes to creating an idealistic world and dreamy characters. Top western games tend to expose the harshness of real-world to players, instead of offering an escape. In many ways, Mihoyo's mastery of anime is closer to a Japanese company than Chinese company, it is not something you can just hire a couple of artists for. Likewise, the western market will always be 15-20% of the overall revenue for gacha games at best, it is difficult for western companies to justify making them with a AAA budget. It is also incredibly hard to make a cross-platform PVE game on PC, Console, and Mobile look this good. It is not something you get from just licensing Unity. There are maybe a handful of companies out there capable of dropping 100 million dollars on a game like this, but until their main cash cow die, which studio dares to take this kind of risk? The tier 2-3 companies are simply not capable of spending 100 million dollars even if they went all in. I don't see a real competitor in two years, not even from Tencent and Netease, the bar is that high. How You Should Approach It As A Player If you are not a fan of gacha games, no problem! The best way is to play it like a free AAA game with unlimited free DLC's. With the amount of money this game makes, in a few years it will have more content than any other open-world game, and the developer will also be more generous over time as end game contents become more abundant. As their tools mature, the amount of time it takes to release contents across all platforms at the same time will shrink significantly, there will also be more events they can queue up. Every F2P player can get at least one five star character without rerolling if they complete most of the quests and use up their gifted currencies. I expect 100% F2P players will get at least 4 five-stars per year, 3 from pity, 1 from luck. I believe F2P with limited resources is a lot more fun and only spend money to support the developer. I am still 100% F2P on Genshin Impact as of today, because getting 20 pulls from the monthly card is not that exciting. I will wait for a one-time-only deal later in the game's life cycle. For players who want to be a bit more involved, you can buy a monthly card, do your dailies, enjoy new content, enjoy the thrills of pulls, and pity 5 stars. Once Mihoyo gets a stable end game loop out there, they will definitely loosen up on resins. Just don't expect to play it like a Path of Exile season start. Save currencies and pity timer for a banner you want. Take it slow! Gacha games are designed to be played over many years, alongside other games. Take your Cyberpunk 2077 break, take your Call of Duty break, but in the end, there is simply no anime ARPG competition on any platform, and if you are into this kind of game, you will be back.
Some things you need to know about the world, that you could see just by looking around.
First of all, you have got to understand something: Words, studies, people, documentaries and media can lie, results can't. With that premise in mind. I don't care if you are a Trump supporter or a Biden supporter, Man, Woman, Black, White, Asian, Muslim, Christian, Jew, etc. WE ARE ALL HUMANS. Stop seeing your neighbour as your enemy for literally having a different opinion than yours. Contrast is not a sin, conflict helps us evolve. What it is ALWAYS unjustified is the use of any kind of violence to force your ideas into others. I am not your enemy, dear reader. I care about you and your freedom, no matter who you are or what you believe in. Unfortunately this world is not all rainbows and butterflies and there is a group that is coming for us. Yes, you and me. No matter who we are, we WILL be no exceptions. Some people are now out of the system, but if this keeps going on, for how long? I know for certain that each one of you, even if you don't admit it publicly, deep inside feel that something is very fucked up with this world. And for a good reason. Each one of you know that there is very little genuine kindness left in this world nowadays. Even if you behave kindly, you get punished for it. And it appears to infect every aspect of our so called "modern" society, while psycophathic and narcisist behaviours get encouraged and promoted in order to achieve your goals. Just take a look around, very little kindness unless there is benefit in being kind (There is still kindness, though and a lot of people wanting to be kind silently). Division and de-humanization everywhere, so the psychopathic behaviors and actions get instantly justified just because that person is a Man, Woman, Trump Supporter, Biden Supporter, Black, White, Asian, Muslim, etc. and I am not. Just look at your own life. You spend more or less 8 hours sleeping everyday (and you should), you work another 8 hours depending on where you live. You spend another 4 hours more or less just doing basic life manteinance like going to work and back home. A day has 24 hours, so you get 4 hours every working day to try and enjoy life. Excluding festivities. And all that in return for a house that you will pretty much never end to pay, healthcare that you will never be able to afford, poor quality food, etc. (In case that you don't know shit about finances and spend your money nonstop in the latest Iphone so you are not economically solvent). Just take a look, our grandparents payed 20k for a house while we pay 120k for a much reduced space, while their wages could buy much more than we can buy today. I don't think anyone here woke up one day and said "it is a good idea to freeze wages and make goods more expensive each year". Who benefits from it? Certainly not you, because you live in an almost permanent state of anger, fear, streess and remorse. But there is undoubtly someone that benefits from this system, or there wouldn't be one in the first place. That is how they get you. Terrorism, Climate Change, Radicalism, Viruses, Economic crashes, Political theatre, etc just to get inside your mind and prevent you from thinking by keeping you fearful, scared, angry, outraged, depressed. Just so you don't have time or motivation to think for yourself or to gather with others and come up with logical explanations. Why do you think MSM rarely reports good news? They know that the mind can escape this prison they created, and that it is the last frontier of freedom. The thing is that the more busy and occupied you are trying to live as best as you can and blaming everything bad on your neighbour, the less attention you pay to thinking objectively on why things are the way they are. On why the goverment takes 50% of your wage in taxes just to give it to other countries for example or to spend it in mansions or giving it to their corporate friends, and then proceeds to tax you yet again for food, owning things and basic shit like electricity, water and gas. On why we are locking down, vaccinating and masking the entire population if we have identified risk groups. On why the middle east got bombed nonstop just on rumors of weapons of mass destruction, bioweapons, etc. Then these events happen at an incredible timing just to push these other things. Capitol Storming completely killed the discussion of the Covid Bill, while pushing and justifying various actions such as the banning of anyone that doesn't stand publicly as a leftist, or the demonization of conspiracy theorists with this event and the Nashville bombing. But to go even further, they both had security breaches that could have been easily avoided. Coincidences? You name it, I don't think so. I think "Conspiracy theorists" or better said "alternative thinking" goes next. Again, who benefits from this? Results never lie. While the average citizens are poorer than ever, corporations are richer than ever (and they are only the visible face of this). So I ask you, who is your enemy? Your neighbour or these money and power hungry ladies and gentlemen that think that the end justifies the means? Thing is they are playing a dangerous game, it is either all or nothing. They win power over everything or they loose everything and they have to start over. Because there is an incredible yet hidden truth in all this mess of a world. The truth is: They came up with a system, but that would be impossible if we don't support it. Why do you think small businesses and independent workers are targeted so hard during this pandemic while big corps are left alone with 0 control? Because it is a way to stop feeding the system and play by your own rules to a certain degree. They know that if we just stop buying their BS and we say "no", they are done. Their carefully crafted system to enrich them over time, will fall apart and it will be a pharaonical task to come up with another plan. Their plan is to enslave every "useful" human being. Period. They already have much more money than they could spend in 10 lives, but they know it is fragile just because of the fact that their power is based on our compliance. Make no mistake, neither you or your family will be an exception exempt from slavery in exchange from your compliance, now or in the future. It may be a privileged form of slavery, but slavery nonetheless. The moment you loose your ability to choose, you are a slave. Do as they dictate or you are fucked, IF they succeed. I humbly and sincerely suggest you that you now change your perspective and start looking at the results from each event that happens, instead of "gimme your source" 24/7. Get real, noone is going to tell you "Hey son I am trying to dominate the world and make every human a slave, can you help me?" seriously. If you see what I see, you feel what I feel and want what I want (true freedom), start finding and taking action to live avoiding the support for a system that will sooner or later become our downfall and the rise of the psychopaths trying to shape the world at their will at the expense of billions suffering. Stop blaming your neighbours and help them out as much as you can. Let's remind these psychopaths that we are humans and we are free, and we are not giving them power ever again. This is solvable by just saying "NO". We are helping with building the bridges that we will sleep under. I don't really care about upvotes or downvotes or the insults that I will surely recieve from people that think that supporting this fucked up system is going to save them, I will gladly accept them. You don't get to decide who I am anyways. Besides, my only purpose is to call for reason and kindness that lies inside each one of you. Kind regards, have a wonderful day.
Manhattan NYC is very expensive. Although I make a fairly substantially large income from varying businesses, I am still VERY very frugal. It is a game to me. I can't help it, I enjoy it. Here's what I do, you are welcome to take my tips or even give me suggestions. I'm not counting in any business expenses. RENT- This one I cannot avoid. I was "convinced and hoodwinked" by my previous girlfriend into getting a really nice apartment, only to break up a few months later and be stuck with this fat ass rent. I refuse to move out because I love this place so much. Solution? I eventually got a new girlfriend, we split the rent and a lot of the home expenses. Coffee - Although I love coffee so much, I really just need the caffeine content. I'll either buy my own coffee grounds from amazon, or I'll take a caffeine/theanine capsule occasionally. If I really need the energy and productivity I'll take 100mg (a half) of Modafinil prescribed by my doctor for free. OCCASIONALLY, I'll get a $1 iced coffee from taco bell, they're the only ones that seem to have it this cheap haha. You wont EVER catch me at starbucks or Dunkin, F that what am I rich! haha. My bank Capital one usually has a coffee shop inside, where if you use your capital one debit card you get 50% off. I'll usually flash them my capital one debit for the 50% off, but use my chase sapphire reserve for the 3x points on it, double win. Clothes - I love clothes as a guy. However I cannot get myself to spend on clothes because I already have clothes. They need to be really torn and tattered or holy for me to replace them. I'm embarrassed to say this, but I'll find great clothes of brands I like on ebay or poshmark, second hand. RARELY will I buy new or in person. I HATE paying retail for anything. My parents always insist on gifting me something for bday or xmas, I'll always suggest shoes and underwear. The other day I walked by a Levis store, my GF makes fun of me for always having a hole in the crotches of my pants, I don't know why but this happens to all my pants; anyway checked out some sales, they had 70% off PLUS an extra 20% off for signing up to their rewards card. Too good of a deal at 90% off, I bought some new good quality jeans and pants thatll last me for years. Alcohol - I've been abstaining from alcohol here and there. Dry January has been extremely productive to me that it makes me never want to go back. I truly don't really miss it. Living in Manhattan, I live near hoboken NJ where there's a beer distributor. Once a month, Id buy a few 30 packs just to keep stocked at home at cheap prices. When I used to throw "parties", I used to buy cheap liquor and pour them into expensive bottles. I began doing this when I realized so many ungrateful people would come to my place, and drink my stuff dry. Well now ya get the cheap stuff ya freeloaders. Going Out - Prepandemic. I LOVED going out. In manhattan, you have the best of the best in terms of bars clubs and restaurants. Expensive though. Solution? Be friends with bartenders and club promoters and club owners and managers. Pre-covid, Id hang out at this bar called Hidden Lane. My best friend was the head bartender, and my friends worked there as well. Id drink for free all night and so would whoever my date was, Id just tip the staff. Then, I'd go out to one of the clubs with my promoter friends. For those that don't understand this "promoter" term: Nightlife Clubs will literally pay a fat salary to these promoters to bring out beautiful girls and keep them at the "table" and the club would provide free bottles of vodka, tequila, beers, champagne, and even food sometimes. My promoter buddies would text me "hey man come out and help me tonight, so many girls at my table I can't entertain alone". As a single guy, this would be a no brainer, drink for free all night w/ my friends AND get to be around beautiful single women. Being in the city, Id citibike (bike share) to the club or bar, and uber or lyft back. Food - I don't believe in going cheap when it comes to groceries because the food you eat is your HEALTH. With that said, Trader Joes is insanely cheap. There are only a few things I'll buy organic and buy lean meats, but everything else is for the most part cheap. I'll spend $50 a week, $100 a week for the 2 of us. CAR - The beauty of living SMACK dab in the middle of Manhattan is not needing a car. I wont even take the subway. I literally citibike everywhere, my annual $160 a year membership is free because I participate in a program called Bike Angels, by inadvertently rebalancing bike stations, Id earn perks rewards and free membership. At the start of the pandemic, I bought myself a 15 year old little mini cooper so I can go on road trips and trips to the beach since things were closed. I paid $2200 for the car, another $1700 on maintenance and preventative maintenance, and $30 a month on insurance, and very little on gas since it's a 4-banger, I hardly use it, but Its there when I need a car as we love to escape the city. Weed - I like to be very productive and weed doesn't allow that for me. However I occasionally hit my bowl or weed pen, just once or twice before a movie on a friday night. A gram will last me literally MONTHS. Credit cards- My favorite topic! Credit cards can be a double edged sword. Use them wrecklessly and the 16-24% interest will murder you. Use them correctly, and they are your best friends. I use the chase 'trifecta'- Chase biz ink preferred for wifi bills, cell phone bill, shipping, social media ads and get back 3x points per $1. Chase Sapphire Reserve (the main card)- for 3x on food , dining, transportation, drinks, parking, tolls, etc. I also get 10x on lyft, 15% off lyft, $60 a year on doordash, airport lounge access, and a bunch of other features, $300 travel credit a year, etc . It's a $450 a year card, but after crunching numbers not only does it come out to free, but the benefits greatly outweigh the costs. Chase Freedom unlimited- on everything else not mentioned above at 1.5x per $1. Chase Biz ink unlimited - on everything else business related. Chase allows me to combine all these points together and if I use them through Sapphire Reserve's portal, they are worth 50% more! If you are even slicker you can transfer them to airline transfer partners and find even cheaper flights and better deals. This has allowed me to never have paid for a flight for me or my girlfriend in years, in probably like 6-7 years. VERY IMPORTANT- I keep it on autopay, ALWAYS pay your balances off in full. NEVER ever pay interest. i always say id rather lose a finger than ever pay interest. I have autopay on a safety measure, I actually pay the balances off once a week usually on fridays and mondays , so I can watch my weekend damage, but also to keep my balance always at zero to keep any balance from being reported to credit bureau's. This keeps my credit score at 800+ which in turn allows me to get very cheap lending for business purposes. TAXES - Another important topic. Without going into too much detail. I'm able to create LLCs and SCorps for my businesses and holdings, allowing myself to pretty much expense a good portion of my expenses. I even file as a loss in some cases for some businesses, according to my accountant's strategy. When I "trade up" properties , I avoid paying Capital Gains taxes by deffering into the new investment property , I also max out my IRA for a free tax savings. Taxes are a place where people spend the majority of their income. I have friends that make 300k a year, but really they make 150k a year due to their restrictions to play with tax loopholes as wage earners. Taxes suck. Buy ONLY TO REPLACE- This is a little out of place after taxes but I am human and prone to sin and purchases, but I've taught myself to buy things ONLY to replace the current one I have. I want the new iphone (biz expense), ONLY if I trade in my current one. I want the new mac mini m1, again only if I sell my current one on ebay or marketplace, I want the new v11 vacuum but only if i sell my current v8, etc you get the point. This way the trade in value of the "older model item" goes towards paying of the new model item. I also get to live very minimal and own only what I need and no clutter. Monthly Streaming Apps- Netflix is now $18 a month! F that, we use my girlfriends fathers account. HBOMax and Hulu I group share buy and pay $3 a month. Amazon Prime is the only one I buy annually at retail, I actually do use prime shopping and video though. Youtube is my most prized app. I learn so much from youtube that I need and deserve the ad-free premium. I refuse to pay $15 a month for youtube, so I'll use my sisters college email for a college discount of 50% off. I don't ever listen to music, but we use my girlfriends spotify app on all our echo devices. Unrelated tip- your internet provider charges you for renting you your routemodem. It's usually $15-20 a month! Buy a compatible used routemodem on ebay for like $20, BAM $240 annual savings. LIQUIDS- by this I mean shampoo, conditioner ,hand soap, body wash, dish soap, all purpose cleaner, windex, etc. I buy all these by the gallon on amazon. If you do the math it comes out to pennies per FL OZ. I keep them in nice dispensers instead of buying and replacing one time use store bought dispensers. Same for TP and paper towels. I buy in bulk- I try to get TP down to 33 cents a roll, and PT down to 82 cents a roll. It's possible to live frugally and still enjoy life. I think one of the most important things is what you do with your free time. You can either sit around and waste time playing video games or whatever your vice is or you can teach yourself new skills constantly that can be useful and worth money in the real world. Money left over from savings goes into stock portfolio, ROTH IRA, index funds, investment properties, or reinvest in my businesses. Skills pay the Bills!
Hey everyone. I've incorporated the feedback from Pixonic (August 2020, October 2020, December 2020, and January 2021). My goal is to try to get Pixonic to respond directly to this thread periodically (3-4 times a year). This will be linked to the weekly suggestions thread by the auto-moderator. Be sure to use the "Pixonic Suggestion" flair so I can easily sort through all the suggestions! Ideas & Feature Requests This thread is a place where you can discuss your ideas for the game or request features you would like to see in coming versions of the game. This sub appreciates any contributions you can make to existing ideas, but we suggest you do not post your idea before reviewing previous Pixonic ideas / suggestions threads. It is highly likely another Commander already submitted the same idea! Please be aware that posting a ruled out idea may result in your thread being removed altogether and posting an idea already suggested might result in your thread being closed with a reference back to this thread. A few tips to submitting an idea or suggestion: Title: Choose a good title - be very specific. Instead of naming your thread "suggestion", "idea", try something like "Hawks are Over Powered." This will help other users find and contribute to your thread, and drive more discussion around the topic. Point: Use clear, concise points or explanations, concept art or screenshots where applicable. General, unspecific, high-level ideas are great, but the Pixonic team can't do much without the proper information! "I think Hawks are way too powerful in the game because of their high firepower. Players running multiple Hawks make the game frustrating and boring for me." Suggestion: Give constructive and helpful suggestions that are realistic. Why will the idea work? "Decrease the Hawks firepower so it only impacts Titans and does not cut through bots' defenses. This will allow other bots to effectively counter Hawks and bring better balane to the game." For all, keep in mind Pixonic is a business. I realize many of us have little experience in owning a gaming company, but try to consider how Pixonic would make a profit or be successful in the business model when giving a suggestion. Pixonic wants players spending money AND playing a lot--so how does your suggestion support that? Threads will be removed if it includes profanity and / or insults. Comments like "make everything for free" or "XXX (i.e. Matchmaking, the game, targeting, etc.) sucks--solution: make the game better, or un-nerf everything" will just be deleted. This also isn't the place to report bugs or to rant. Given the nature of the game the developers and producers cannot always say what is coming in the next version or what is being worked on. Also, please don't expect a response to every thread or idea. The best ideas will be discussed frequently by the Community and will surface to the top in that manner (or through up/down votes). Do not spam your thread or ideas just because no one is responding!
Frequently Requested Ideas Below are ideas submitted by users for Pixonic to consider. It does not imply they are being worked on. Please do a search before starting new feature requests, especially if they are listed below. These ideas and suggestions are either acknowledged and are being worked on, or have been ruled out by the dev team for the time being. Posting these ideas may result in your thread being removed without notice. Frequently Requested:
Battle Modes
Titan skirmish (Status: in Dec 2020 Max, WR Producer stated: " We agree that it would be a lot of fun. We'll try to introduce Titan Skirmishes next year, but it won't be a priority – there's so much to do.")
Additions to custom matches (Status: in Dec 2020 Max, WR Producer stated: "The general idea of Custom Matches is not to provide an additional game mode, but to give you a playground where you can test your builds to understand if they are suitable for real combat. In Max's opinion, current functionality of Custom Matches fits just well in this concept." Detailed comments in original post)
Beacon hold time should be considered for HP (Status: in Dec 2020 Max, WR Producer stated: " We already have some ideas on how to expand the honor reward list (e.g. rewarding players for applying Suppression or Lock-down effects). The idea with beacon hold time sounds like a nice addition to our plans. ")
Pause booster timer while waiting for match (Status: in August 2020 the Pixonic producer stated they agreed with this concept and were looking into it; in Dec 2020 Max, the WR Producer stated: "We had plans for a complete rework of Boosters. Unfortunately, we had to cut those plans off to release Drones and prepare for Remastered. We believe we'll have time to work on Boosters in 2021.")
Faster reload times (Status: in Dec 2020 Max, WR Producer stated: "Thing is, there is a technical tie between reload animation and reload time. It's one of those legacy mechanics that've been haunting the game for years already. Until we refactor the entire block, it's impossible for us to change the reload speed on most of the weapons. But in general idea is good, though we see it as a Passive Module rather than a Booster.")
Allow friends in-game or via other platforms (i.e. Discord) (Status: in Dec 2020, Max WR Producer stated: " We call it "Platform Merge iteration 2" and it's on the list for 2021."; in January 2021 Max WR Producer stated: "For technical reasons, we don't want to add integrations with other platforms as far as the friends system is concerned. In fact, we'd also like to get rid if the existing integration and make all friends features completely native to the game. There will be a rework of the friends system this year. Stay tuned!"; In Jan 2021 Pix stated ability to invite friends direclty is coming soon)
Pixonic sponsored WR Tournament (Status: Oct 2020 Pix CM said it was coming; in Dec 2020 Max WR Producer stated: "We have a couple of competitive features prepared for the next year. We'll tell you more in our New Year videos."; In Jan 2021 Pix stated tournaments will be introduced into each season)
Cross-Platform (Status: In Dec 2020, Max WR Producer stated: "This is basically a cross-platform account, like PixAccount. The idea has been around for a couple of years already. It should be implemented on the scale of the whole company, not only War Robots project, of course. But yes, it's something we definitely want to have in the future.")
Incorporate lore into rewards or abilities, etc. (Status: In Jan 2021, Max WR Producer stated: "It's a great idea and it might work! *Promises to talk to the game design department about it*")
Upgrade / build multiple bots or weapons at a time (possibly benefit of having multiple hangars)
Limit number of sambe bots you cna use in active hangar
Allow us to see other players' drone hangars (Status: In Jan 2021, Max WR Producer stated: " Yes, one day. We have some improvement plans for Drones, including UI. Hopefully, our UI team will find a way to show more info on drones in hangar.")
List maps in Alphabetical order in pull down menu (Status: In Jan 2021, Max WR Producer stated: "With only 13 maps in the game, it isn't difficult to find what you are looking for. However, if it can be done fast, we will try to squeeze it into the production plan.")
Add additional league (Status: In Jan 2021, Max WR producer stated: "We are considering this idea right now, but rather a new league between Masters and Champions."; In Jan 2021 Pix stated a rework to Legendary leagues is coming soon)
Performance / Technical Features
Targeting system rework / improvement (Status: Targeting seems to be part of the base code and allows other features in the game to operate, such as stealth, meaning there are multiple dependencies. Pixonic did minor tweaks to targeting to address shooting Ao Mings in the air from the ground and vice versa, but according to Pixonic CM in Oct 2020 a major rework will not be considered until after Pixonic migrates to new servers in 2021; In Jan 2021 Pix stated improvement to targeting system will be worked with expected release in Aug 2021).
Lag (Status: According to Pixonic the 6.4 update should address lag along with server overhaul)
Choose type of crate progression (Status: In jan 2021, Max WR Producer stated: "The league chests need a rework, that's for sure. We have some plans for an overhaul or even an alternative feature in 2021.")
Reload button (Status: Been requested numerous times over the years. Pixonic had a reload button in a test server in ~2016 but removed it without explanation and has not indicated it will be implemented at all in the future).
Donating (or trading) any resources to (with) other players or accounts (Status: a type of resource donation system used to be in the game but it was abused by players who created multiple accounts and clan-hopped to exploit it. It does not look like any trading system will be implemented in the future).
Stats (Status: In Dec 2020 Max, WR Producer stated: "We agree that there are players who love in-depth statistics. However, War Robots is a "midcore" game and we predict that the feature will not be popular enough among our players.")
Allow training hangars to test out bots before buying them (Status: In Jan 2021, Max WR Producer stated: "It's a nice idea in general and we had it on the roadmap for 2021. However, after the final evaluation, the feature's business value/effort proportion proved to be too unfavorable to include it into the plan. You can still test out some of the new content using Hangar X.")
Allow factions to add boosts / skills / features to bots and hangars (Status: in Jan 2021, Max WR Producer stated: "It's a very interesting concept, yet as War Robots meta is not built around the lore, it will lead to power players choosing factions that suit the current meta, while the lore factor will be neglected. So the faction power bonus is unlikely to appear in the game. However, we will work on including more lore-based features in War Robots and our other games.")
New MM formula (Status: In Jan 2021, Max WR Producer stated: "First of all, big thanks to the author of the original post. You did a great job with the calculations and data! *applause*. The concept of the Hangar Power matchmaking is great. It provides those sought after equal matches in most of the cases... on one condition — all players play fair. Right at the point when someone decides to abuse the system, it all falls apart. We struggled with it really bad before we introduced Leagues. (Yes, tankers are also a problem, but we can at least spot them and suspend or ban their accounts.). Your idea with the high-tier robots contributing more to the HPS is a good one. And still, it doesn't provide a guaranteed solution to the problem. Between Tier 1 (Destrier) and Tier 4 (Ao Jun) there is also Tier 2 and Tier 3. That's where it gets painfully difficult to balance the system so that high-level players aren't able to disintegrate mid-levels with just one bot. We had some attempts at a similar algorithm with the Design and Analytics teams in 2019. During several months of tests we couldn't come up with a solid version, that we ourselves wouldn't be able to abuse as players.")
Synchronize platform releases (Status: In Jan 2021, Max WR Producer stated: "It's not possible due to our internal releasing procedures.")
He has been playing PUBG mobile for nearly 3 years, initially we started by playing for fun but a few months later he started to join clans and communities which led him to playing competitively (esports, PMCO etc). He recently started to stream on his mobile as his internet speed was upgraded recently. I know this is what he truly wants to do and what makes him happy and I want to be a supportive girlfriend for him. I’ve already done some things such as buying him a headphone set & helping out getting his iPhone 11 so he can play better since his phone was getting old. I’ve created his logo and cover photo on photoshop to add to his fb page. I’ve shared him some of my ideas, etc, but I know in the end it’s up to him since it’s his choice to do it. His parents and family aren’t very supportive of what he is doing however. He is almost 24, and has never had a job. After he graduated university, he went straight into gaming. He doesn’t earn a salary from his tournaments, but he does get occasional money here and there if they win a tournament but not enough to replace a ‘real’ salary and make a living. This is what concerns me most. His family is always asking if he has a job yet, how is he going to support himself etc and it always brings him down and makes him depressed. He is giving everything into this game but I am worried he is shying away from the true reality. I know people that have gone into streaming full time, but they had a job to support themselves first or something else. I have suggested to him to get a part time job so he can get the things he needs for streaming, like a good quality computer etc but he never applies for a job, like ever. I’ve told him before it’s like he is waiting for success to drop at his feet. Sometimes I think about our future, will it be me working full time whilst he continuously pursues his ‘passion’ and not help me with bills? Maybe I will resent him because I’ve done nothing but support him yet he still gives nothing back because this is his ‘passion’. I must admit, he has asked money from me before to help with his gaming and honestly at that time I felt slightly bitter because I thought “why you can’t get a job to pay for your own needs because it’s your choice to do gaming? Not mine”. I was also disappointed because he’s made promises before like “I’ll work hard for our future” or “I’ll do everything to give us a better life”. He has expressed to me before that he just needs people to believe in him because this is what he wants to do. Recently, he has also admitted that he is worried I will be against him in the future. I am doing my nursing degree and will graduate next year, and he has told me he knows I will be the more ‘successful’ one in the relationship and resent him in the future because he’s still nowhere. We’ve fought about this many times before but I feel obligated to support him because it’s his choice. I love him a lot and I understand that he is his own person, but I am slightly worried for the future. I think I am only feeling this way because we have been together for almost 4 years and have seen him go through ups but many downs due to his gaming (ie ‘no one believes in me’ and ‘this is my passion’). I want to continue to support him despite all this, any advice?
Grips. Let's talk about 'em. If you've spent any amount of time on this subreddit, you've likely seen at least one post about a Grip case that has fallen apart. Most of you have seen several. We know this because we've seen every single one. We’d like to see less of them. Ideally, none. Over the past 18 months, we’ve been on an odyssey to fix the underlying problem. What follows is a chronicle of that journey. Our objectives in writing this post are three-fold. There will be a tl;dr version at the end of this post, summarizing each of the three:
Offer an in-depth technical explanation as to why Grip cases fall apart.
Outline the improvements we've made to the Grip case to mitigate and eventually solve the issue.
Provide some much-needed context as to how widespread the issue truly is, and what our next steps are for affected Grip SKUs.
Since you're still here, you must be in it for the long haul. Assuming an average reading speed of 250 words per minute, this is going to take you nearly 24 minutes to get through. We'll try to make it the most informative 24 minutes of your life. Let's get started.
PART ONE
Why Do Grips Fall Apart? Most phone cases are made out of a single material. The material itself varies from case to case, though the most common is Thermoplastic Polyurethane (TPU). The Grip case, as a point of comparison, is made of two different materials: an elastomer and a polycarbonate. The word elastomer is a combination of the words elastic and polymer. That's because it describes polymers that have elastic properties - like the one that forms the outer rim of your Grip case. The elastomer that we use is responsible for two critical properties of the Grip case: impact protection and grip. If you fell off of a rooftop, would you rather land on a hard plastic surface, or a rubber surface? If you value your life at all, you'd choose the rubber - its elastic properties would absorb much more force from the impact. Guess what rubber is? First one to answer "an elastomer" wins a prize! Next, imagine you’re a pervert, gently running your finger across every surface of a No. 2 Pencil. Which part of the pencil do you think would provide the most resistance to the tracing of your finger? If you guessed "the eraser," congratulations: you possess a basic understanding of coefficients of friction. Erasers are made of rubber. Rubber has a high coefficient of friction because of its elastic properties. The Grip case's elastomer isn't rubber - it's our own specially-formulated compound. It's still a useful comparison, as all elastomers share similar properties - provided they have the same degree of Shore Hardness. One person reading this is asking: “Shore Hardness?” The next section is their fault. A Beginner's Guide to Material Science The Shore Hardness scale gauges the hardness of various elastomers. It can be measured with a device called a durometer. You probably don't have one.
Low Shore Hardness = softer, more malleable, less dense, more rubber-like.
High Shore Hardness = harder, less malleable, more dense, more plastic-like.
If you fell out of a building and landed on a rubber surface with a high Shore Hardness, injury or death would be much more likely. If you used an eraser with a high Shore Hardness, you'd find it wouldn't actually do much erasing. Now, what if you made a phone case out of an elastomer with a high Shore Hardness? It wouldn't offer much grip or impact protection. The Grip's outer rim is made from an elastomer with a low Shore Hardness. As a result, the material is grippy and impact-resistant, but much more malleable and thus more likely to deform. That's why we bond the elastomer to a polycarbonate skeleton. Polycarbonates don't require as much explanation as elastomers: they're a category of plastic. On your Grip case, the back plate is made of polycarbonate. The elastomer rim is bonded to the polycarbonate plate on all sides of the Grip, providing structural rigidity to the elastomer, fighting to keep it from deforming. At least, that's the idea. As we've all seen, it hasn't worked out that way. Bonding two distinct materials together is much more complicated than gluing them together. Instead, we rely on a thermal bonding process. Basically, that means we heat both of our polymers to a degree which would turn you from “rare” to “well done” in moments. This heat melts the polymers, which we then inject at a pressure which would turn you from “solid” to “paste” even faster. Once injected, these two materials get fused together along the seams. To further reinforce the bonds, we use a series of interlocking "teeth" to provide a greater surface area on which the bonding process can occur. Consider these teeth the mechanical bond, which exists to strengthen the thermal bond. Pictured: Bonding mechanic between the elastomer and polycarbonate. With that out of the way: why do Grips fall apart? The elastomer rim around the edge of the Grip case is naturally inclined to deform and stretch. The bonding mechanisms we described above are designed to keep that from happening, but it often isn’t strong enough. As soon as the bond fails at any point, it's only a matter of time until a total structural failure occurs.
PART TWO
How Are We Stopping Grips From Falling Apart? Philosophically, there are two approaches to take:
We can investigate why, exactly, the bond between the elastomer and the polycarbonate is failing.
We can tweak and iterate the thermal and mechanical bond - strengthening it to the point where it's statistically improbable that your case will fall apart.
We tried the first approach - it's the road to madness. The number of variables is irrationally large. What's the temperature like where you live? The altitude? The humidity? Do you bring your phone into environments that deviate from the ambient temperature of your location? Does your school or workplace have extremely dry air? Do you bring your phone into a sauna? What sort of soap do you wash your hands with? Do you have oily hands? What sort of food do you cook? Do you smoke? How hard do you press on the buttons? What's your angle of approach when you actuate a button? How big are your hands? How often do you take your phone out of the case? Do you remove it from the top, the bottom, the sides? We could follow all of these roads, find out exactly which factors are causing the bond to fail, then implement preventative measures to keep it from happening - but that would take a decade. We don't have that long. Much like you, we want this fixed yesterday. So, from the moment we received our first complaint about a Grip deforming around the buttons, we've been making structural, thermal, and mechanical improvements to the design and production process of the Grip case - some visible, some not. Every new phone release has brought a new iteration on the core Grip design, with each one reducing the failure rate, incrementally. We'll bring the receipts in the next chapter. For now, let's highlight the most noteworthy improvements. The Most Noteworthy Improvements The first signs of trouble were the buttons. Months before we'd received our first report of a Grip case de-bonding, we saw the first examples of buttons that had bent out of shape. Pictured: Button deformation. Why the buttons? Because you press down on them. The force from button actuation puts strain on the elastomer, causing displacement of the material in the surrounding area. Through a combination of time, repeated button actuations and the above-mentioned force, the case would permanently deform around the buttons. This concept is called the "compression set" of the elastomer - Google it. The solution to this problem was two-fold:
First, we increased the compression set of the elastomer. Essentially, we made it as dense as we could, without compromising on the elastic properties of the material.
Second, we added relief slits surrounding the buttons - they're plainly visible on any newer Grip case model. These relief slits are an escape route for the force generated by button actuation. They also had the positive effect of making button actuation significantly more satisfying (read: clicky).
Pictured: Relief slits to improve button tactility and durability. Another early issue, pre-dating the first reports of total de-bonding, was a deformation of the elastomer along the bottom of the case - where the charging port and speakers are. Since we've covered the basics on how the interlock between the elastomer and the polycarbonate creates a bond, this is how the interlocking teeth along the top edge of the polycarbonate skeleton of the Grip used to look. Pictured: First-gen interlocking teeth on the top of the Grip. ...and here's the bottom of that very same Grip case. Pictured: First-gen interlocking teeth on the bottom of the Grip. Notice anything? Around the charging port, there is absolutely nothing keeping the elastomer in place. No teeth, no structural reinforcements... it's no coincidence that an overwhelming majority of early Grip deformations happened along the bottom. Since then, we’ve added a reinforced polycarbonate structure around the bottom of the Grip case. You'll see what that looks like in a bit. So, why didn't the launch portfolio of Grip cases have mechanical interlocks or a polycarbonate support structure along the bottom? The answer may or may not be complicated, depending on how much you know about plastic injection molding. We'll assume the worst and explain the concept of "undercut" to you with a ridiculous metaphor. The Ridiculous Metaphor Imagine you had a tube full of melted cheese. Next, imagine you emptied that entire tube into your mouth. Rather than swallowing the cheese, you decide to let it sit in your mouth and harden. Why are you doing this? We don't know. Let's just say you want a brick of cheese that's perfectly molded to the contours of your mouth - a very normal thing to want. So, your mouth is completely filled with cheese. It hardens. You reach into your mouth to remove the brick of cheese. As you're removing it, you encounter a problem: your teeth are in the way. This wasn't a problem when you were putting the cheese into your mouth, but that was because the cheese was melted and could flow around your teeth. Now that the cheese has hardened, this is no longer the case. In the world of plastic injection molding, this is an undercut. Our concern was that, by molding a structurally rigid piece of polycarbonate around the charging port and speaker holes, we'd find ourselves unable to remove the Grip Case from the mold once hardened. Imagine spending $30,000 on industrial tooling only to get a $30 phone case stuck inside of it. Once we saw Grip cases deforming along the bottom cutouts, we knew we'd need to find a way to remove the cheese from your mouth without breaking your teeth. To make a long story short: we did it. The cheese is out of your mouth, and you get to keep your teeth. Congratulations! Now, keep reading. On newer models of the Grip case, the result is a polycarbonate bridge extending around the bottom cutouts, adding both structural reinforcement and interlock mechanisms to promote mechanical bond, much like the ones which line the perimeter of the rest of the Grip case. Pictured: Newest-gen structural reinforcement on the bottom of the Grip. On the subject of structural reinforcements, this design revision was around the time we flanked the buttons with some fins, working in tandem with the heightened compression set and button relief slits, detailed above, to further guarantee that button actuation would have no impact on the overall durability of the Grip case. Pictured: Lack of button fins on the first-gen Grip. Pictured: Button fins on the newest-gen Grip. As an aside: Unrelated to the de-bonding issues, we've also made a number of smaller improvements to the Grip case with each new iteration. For instance, we chamfered the front lip of the case to make edge-swiping more pleasant and reduce dust accumulation along the rim. Those raised parallelogram shapes along the sides of your Grip case that create its distinctive handfeel? We made those way bigger for a better in-hand experience. In short: product development is a complex and multifaceted process. Each new iteration of the Grip case is better than the one that came before, and that applies to more than just failure rates. Speaking of failure rates: all of these improvements were in place by the time we launched iPhone 11-series Grip cases. The failure rate for these cases decreased exponentially... but didn't disappear entirely. The Even More Ridiculous Metaphor With these improvements, we achieved our desired outcome: the case was no longer deforming around the buttons or the charging port. Instead, the structure of the case began to fail literally anywhere else around the perimeter of the phone. Think of it this way… you’re a roof carpenter. The greatest roof carpenter of all time. Like the son of God, but if he was a carpenter. Unfortunately, you’ve been paired with the Donald Trump of wall-builders. You're tasked with building a house. You spend all of your time and energy perfecting your roofcraft. You've designed a roof that's so durable, it may as well have been made of Nokia 3310s. Nothing's getting through that bad boy. The wall guy? Instead of building that wall he said Mexico would pay for, he's been tweeting about the miraculous medicinal properties of bleach while a plague kills hundreds of thousands of Americans. The point here is that you can build the greatest roof of all time, but the walls need to be strong enough to match. To strengthen the Grip case's metaphorical walls, we needed to re-design the inside of the Grip case from scratch. More specifically, the mechanical interlock between the springy elastomer and rigid polycarbonate skeleton. We took every tooth at the bonding point between the two materials and made them as large as we possibly could. Then, we added more teeth. Pictured: Polycarbonate teeth on the newest-gen Grip. To jog your memory: this is how the teeth used to look... Pictured: Polycarbonate teeth on the first-gen Grip. If time proves that these changes aren’t enough, our engineers still have a number of ideas on how to improve the bond between the elastomer and polycarbonate. Will we ever need to implement those ideas? Again - that’s a question only time can answer. Each change might be the silver bullet that puts this problem to bed for good... but there's only one way to find out: it involves real-world testing and, with each iteration, months of careful observation.
PART THREE
So, Where Are We Now? Have the improvements we've made to the Grip case been successful? You bet. For the sake of comparison: we began shipping iPhone 11 series Grips on September 30th, 2019. Within six months of that date, we had received 52 reports of structural failures - a big improvement over the early days, but still not good enough. Fast forward two months. We began shipping Note 10 Plus Grip cases on November 21st, 2019. In the first six months of availability, we received exactly eight reports of Note 10 Plus Grips falling apart. Again, a major improvement over the iPhone series in the same stretch of time. If we'd launched the first Grip cases with a failure rate that low, we wouldn't be writing this post right now and you’d have nothing to read while pretending to do work. How about the Galaxy S20 series, which began shipping on February 10th, 2020? They're the most recent and improved set of SKUs we’ve made to date, leveraging everything we've learned and making further improvements over the Note 10 Plus. No reports so far. Same goes for the iPhone SE and OnePlus 8 series - these SKUs share all the improvements we've made to the underlying design of the Grip case thus far. Does that mean these numbers will hold forever? Who knows. That's the thing: every improvement we make, we need to wait several months to see how effective it's been. No amount of internal testing can replace the real-world data of shipping cases to hundreds of thousands of users across nearly 200 countries. We could always just throw in the towel, make the entire case out of rigid plastic, and call it a solved issue... but that would be the easy way out. The Grip case and its unique design properties can't reach their full potential unless we make incremental improvements - then wait and see how they pan out in the real world. All of which is to say: it's far too early to say the newest set of improvements have officially solved the problem. While the failure rate is still zero, we need to keep watching. We've made a ton of progress, but we're not going to rest until we've killed this issue for good - without sacrificing the unique properties that make the Grip case stand out in a sea of derivative hard plastic and TPU phone cases. That's probably enough to inspire confidence in someone who's on the fence about buying an S20 Ultra Grip, an iPhone SE Grip, or any Grip we release in the future. But what if you're one of the people who bought an older Grip model? "I'm One Of The People Who Bought An Older Grip Model!" We won't sugarcoat it. The failure rates for older Grip models is way higher than we deem acceptable. Why has it taken us this long to publicly address the issue, then? Easy: it's not as widespread as you might think. Some humans reading this might be looking at their iPhone X Grip, purchased in 2019 and still intact, wondering what all the fuss is about. That's an important consideration: most people who have functioning, still-bonded Grip cases aren't posting on /dbrand about how unbroken it is. The people who've had issues around total product failure are in the minority. We're not using the word "minority" as a get-out-of-jail-free card here. It's still a way larger number than we'd ever be comfortable with. We simply don't want our transparency and candor in writing this to be misinterpreted as an admission that every single Grip case we've made for older devices is going to fall apart. Statistically speaking, this is an issue for a minority of Grip owners. Our philosophy at first was that, while it was unfortunate and frustrating that Grip cases were falling apart, dramatic PR action wasn't necessary. Instead, we resolved to:
Quietly and diligently work in the background to improve the underlying design of the Grip case.
Ship free replacements to anyone whose Grip case had failed.
To date, we've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on shipping fees alone for replacement Grips. As you can imagine, that number gets a lot higher once you add in the cost of actually making the thing. We've been fine with writing these costs off as sort of an R&D expense, since every example of a deformed or de-bonded Grip provides invaluable data on how to improve the product. Where our strategy backfired was in the narrative that began to take root as Grip cases continued to fall apart. Look at it this way: the failure rate of older Grip case SKUs is anywhere between 1% and 20%, depending on how early we released the SKU. Since the improvements we've already made to the underlying design were rolled out incrementally with each new phone release, that number has been on a steady downward trend. For the purpose of this thought experiment, we'll go with the earliest, shittiest Grip cases - putting us at a long-term failure rate of 20%. So, 20% of customers for this device have a Grip case fall apart at some point in the product's lifespan. Every single one of those people writes in to our Customer Experience team about the issue. They all receive a replacement, free of charge. Since this replacement is identical to the first Grip case they'd received, it also has a 20% failure rate. We're now dealing with percentages of percentages. Stop panicking, we'll do the math for you: that means 4% of these hypothetical Grip owners will have a second Grip case fail on them in the long run. Four percent is a lot better than twenty… but it's also a lot of people who've been burned twice. These people are going to be extra vocal about how shitty the Grip case is. To be fair, they've got every right. So, we've got four groups of customers for this SKU:
Group A: Has had two or more Grip cases fail (4%).
Group B: Has had exactly one Grip case fail (16%).
Group C: Bought a Grip which has not failed (80%).
Group D: Has not purchased a Grip case (NA%).
Group A is livid about the repeated issues they've had - rightfully so. Group B, having been burned before, reads about Group A's experience. They take it to mean their replacement will inevitably fail on them as well, and they'll one day get the dubious honor of joining Group A. Group C, despite not having had any issues yet, reads the experiences of Groups A and B. Then, a significant portion of this group begins to operate under the assumption that it's only a matter of time before their Grip falls apart as well. Group D reads all of the above and decides they don't have enough confidence in the Grip case to ever purchase one. A narrative begins to form that this hypothetical failure rate is close to 100%. Worse yet: people with newer phones, unaware that each new iteration of the Grip case has a dramatically reduced failure rate over the last, start to assume their case also has a 100% failure rate. That's where our original strategy - the one where we quietly improved the product in the background while offering replacements for defective units - backfired on us. This narrative only exists because we've continued to leverage existing stock with too high a failure rate, which, in hindsight, was like pouring gasoline on a gender reveal forest fire of disappointment and regret. This brings us to our next chapter. Mass Destruction At this point, you're probably aware that a number of Grip SKUs for older phones have been listed as "Sold Out" on our website, and haven't been restocked since. We stopped production on these cases because we knew they'd have all the same issues as the original production runs. See, it's not as simple as pushing a "make the Grip not fall apart" button at the factory - we'd need to redesign the case from scratch, implementing all of the design improvements we've made up to this point, then re-tool our existing machinery to produce this new version. We'll have more to say about re-tooling a bit later - for now, focus on the fact that some Grips have been listed as "Sold Out". If someone's Grip case falls apart while listed as "Sold Out", we don't have any replacements to send them. Instead, dbrand's Customer Experience team has been issuing refunds wherever possible, and store credit otherwise. Just in case you're wondering what we mean by "where possible": PayPal doesn't allow refunds on transactions that are more than six months old. Store credit, on the other hand, can be offered indefinitely. What we've come to realize is that we're never going to be able to escape this downward spiral until we rip the band-aid off and stop stocking these old, flawed SKUs. Today, we're ripping the bandaid off. As you're reading this, we're disposing of all of our old stock. All of the flawed Grip SKUs are now listed as "Sold Out". Head over to our Grip listing and take a look at what's available. Everything that you can currently buy is up to spec with the improvements we've made over the past year - meeting or exceeding the standard of quality set by the Galaxy S20 series, the iPhone SE, and the OnePlus 8 series. In some cases - take, for instance, the iPhone 11 series - this means we've already re-tooled our production lines to meet that quality benchmark. If a Grip case is listed on "Backorder", it means we've begun the process of re-tooling the SKU to match the improved quality standard you've spent the last five hours reading about. However, if a Grip case is now listed as "Sold Out", that means no more reshipments. If you own a sold out Grip case that hasn't fallen apart yet: that's great! Don't assume that your Grip is doomed to fail just because we devoted 5661 words to explaining why it might fall apart. You've still got better odds than you would at a casino. As always, if you run into any issues with your case, sold out or not, shoot an email to one of our Robots. They'll still take care of you - it just won't be with a replacement case… for now. Mass Production Remember when we said we'd talk more about re-tooling a bit later? That's right now. So, why are so many Grip models not being fixed? Why haven't we re-tooled these old SKUs with all of the quality improvements made to the case's build quality? It's a little complicated. Taking the improvements we've made to the most recent suite of Grip models and retroactively applying those changes to older SKUs isn't a simple task - it would require us to throw out our existing production tools and create new ones, from scratch. Suffice it to say that doing so is a wildly expensive endeavor. To recoup that cost, we'd need to produce more Grips than we're likely to ever sell for aging, irrelevant hardware. Let's use the Pixel 3 as an example. If we replaced every single de-bonded Pixel 3 Grip, that would account for about 3% of the MOQ (Minimum Order Quantity) on a re-tooled Pixel 3 Grip case. Now we're sitting on 97% of that MOQ as overstock. Pixel 3 owners have had their phone for nearly two years now. If they want a phone case, they already have one. They're not looking for new Pixel 3 cases, they're getting ready to buy a new phone. Simply put, it’s no longer a viable market. Now, say the Pixel 3 was a significantly more popular phone - enough that we'd be shipping out, say, 50% of the MOQ as replacements on day one. Now, that's a lot more tempting to us - we'd still lose boatloads of money, but at least it would go towards some consumer goodwill. To figure out how much money we'd lose on re-tooling, we gave our bean-counting Robots a giant jar of beans and told them to get to work. They emerged three days later. When asked how many beans were in the jar, they gave us a blank stare. When asked if it was possible to re-tool any of our production lines for old Grip SKUs without losing obscene amounts of money, they said: "Absolutely not." Still, we're no strangers to throwing away obscene amounts of money to make the internet happy. Remember Amazon gift cards? Those were the days. The only question that remains is "How much money are we willing to set on fire?" We can't tell you yet. Why? Because we're currently running a detailed cost-benefit analysis on the subject of re-tooling old production lines, on a SKU-by-SKU basis. That's business talk for "the bean-counting Robots have been given more beans to count." The objective is to determine the viability of producing new-and-improved Grip stock for older phones: how many units would be tied up in replacements for that model, how many we could reasonably expect to sell to new customers, and how much overstock would be left from the MOQ. From there, we can determine what the financial impact of re-tooling would be and make the final decision on how much cash we're dumping into the ocean somewhere off the coast of the Seychelles. We'll have our results by early next week. These re-tooled models, if produced, would feature every improvement we’ve made thus far to the Grip case line, plus a few that have yet to be released. Remember how the S20s, the iPhone SE and the OnePlus 8s haven't had any reported failures yet? Picture that, but for the phone you've got. If we go ahead with re-tooling production lines for your phone, a few things will happen:
The Grip case for your phone will go from "Sold Out" to "Backorder".
Our Customer Experience Robots will shift their communication strategy from "we no longer support your phone," to "we'll get you a replacement once we've got improved units in stock."
None of these things will happen until we've run the simulations on which phones are getting restocked. Why are we posting this today, then? We could have waited a week and had concrete answers to offer about the future of our out-of-stock Grip cases. Well… Take Our Survey This is it: your chance to have some say in how much money we set on fire as a goodwill exercise for this whole R&D clusterfuck. Those simulations we're running? They'll be great for telling us how much money we'regoingto lose on each Grip SKU, but it won't tell us anything about how much money our customerswantus to lose on each Grip SKU. To that end, we've prepared a survey for people who have purchased a Grip case. We'll be taking your feedback into consideration during our decision-making process. We have only one request: don't be a jackass. Answer the questions honestly. Click here to take the survey. In Closing... We're sharing a special moment right now. We're all seeing a light at the end of the tunnel. For us, that light is "we're almost done with a year-long R&D effort to stop the Grip case from falling apart." For you, the light is "the end of a 5661-word marathon of a Reddit post." We just want to take a minute to recognize that we couldn't have gotten this far without your collective support. At any point in the past year, we might have pulled the plug on the Grip project entirely if we'd reached a critical mass of negative sentiment from our customers. Instead, we've got an army of devotees who have no problem paying us for the privilege of being our guinea pigs. Product development isn't a one-and-done process. It's easy to forget, but our skins weren't always to the world-class, record-setting, Michael-Jordan-in-his-prime standard you expect from us today. If you happen to have an iPhone 4 skin lying around, apply it and let us know how it goes. You'll immediately appreciate how many process improvements we've made. We weren’t born as the greatest skin manufacturer in history. We got there through a process of methodical improvement. Each jump in quality was driven by a bottomless well of user feedback, sourced from millions upon millions of customers. That, and the competition was comically inept. It's the same story for the Grip case. Your continued support has enabled us to make huge strides in developing a product that's on the cusp of blowing everyone else out of the water. We're going to keep working until it gets there.
TL;DR VERSION
Please note that by reading this tl;dr, you’re missing out on several outlandish metaphors, including classics such as:
Plastic injection molding melted cheese into your face hole.
What if Jesus and Donald Trump built a house?
How to turn yourself from “rare to well done” and “solid to paste”.
Pencil Perverts.
WHY DOES THE GRIP FALL APART?
The Grip case is made from two materials: a polycarbonate skeleton and an elastomer frame.
The elastomer frame provides the majority of the case's impact protection and grip, but is prone to deformation.
We prevent deformation by bonding the material to a polycarbonate skeleton (i.e. the rigid back plate on the Grip case).
The bond between the two materials was not as strong as we'd originally anticipated, causing the elastomer to de-bond from the polycarbonate skeleton and the case to sometimes fall apart.
WHAT HAVE YOU DONE TO FIX IT?
Through a series of design revisions, we've made countless improvements to promote a stronger bond between the two materials.
These changes have incrementally reduced the failure rate of Grip cases. Our most recent SKUs are yielding extremely promising results.
Each time we improve the Grip case, we need to play a months-long waiting game to observe the real-world effects.
HOW ABOUT THE GRIPS YOU'VE ALREADY SOLD?
Since we're using you as guinea pigs for the purposes of product development, we've been uncharacteristically generous with our warranty policy.
However, that warranty policy only lasts as long as we have stock. Once we're out of Grips, we're out of replacements.
We've finally reached the point where we need to rip off the bandaid and dispose of all of our Grip stock produced during 2019.
If your Grip for any of these older phones falls apart, you can no longer get a replacement.
You should still write in to our Customer Experience team if it happens to you - we'll work something out.
On the bright side, our Grip SKUs from 2020 onwards have dramatically reduced, if not outright eliminated, the failure rate of previous models. We have no reported cases to date.
It's not economically viable to re-tool production lines to apply our improved industrial designs to any of the Grip cases that are currently marked as "Sold Out".
We're probably going to do it anyways.
We're running the simulations right now to determine which older devices will be re-tooled.
Take our survey to help determine which devices we'll be re-tooling.
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