Hey everyone! Ever since Night Of Champions 2015, through multiple accounts, every month before major WWE pay-per-views, I’ve come on here and booked the cards to make them as exciting, intriguing, and best possible scenarios for the future. I do both NXT and main-roster pay-per-views, as well as the occasional big milestone RAW or Smackdown weekly show. Without further ado, here is how NXT TakeOver: Wargames IV should be booked

MY NXT TAKEOVER: WARGAMES POSTS OF PREVIOUS YEARS:

• 2017: https://old.reddit.com/SquaredCircle/comments/7dv1uu/how_nxt_takeover_wargames_should_be_booked/
  
• 2018: https://old.reddit.com/WWE/comments/9xp4sa/how_nxt_takeover_wargames_ii_should_be_booked/
  
• 2019: Didn’t do one.
  

MAIN SHOW:

• IT’S ALL ABOUT THE WARGAMES, AND HOW YOU PLAY IT. Sorry, had to get that in, as I do every year for the WarGames post. It’s that time o’year again. Like the groundhog on groundhog day rises from his slumber to see his shadow, William Regal is back standing between two teams of 4 NXT wrestlers, shouting WARGAMES. This card has its pros and it’s cons. NXT isn’t what it once was, and isn’t what it could so easily be right now. Somewhere along the way they’ve fallen off, but I’m here, as always, to try and pick up the pieces. So load up those double rings, and let’s get into this one! As always, this isn’t what I think WILL happen, this is what I think SHOULD happen. Now, let’s distract ourselves from the real world with some pro wrestling.

1ST MATCH: The Kings of NXT (Pat McAfee, Pete Dunne, Oney Lorcan & Danny Burch) vs. The Undisputed Era (Adam Cole, Bobby Fish, Kyle O’Reilly and Roderick Strong) (WarGames match)

• Undisputed are out first, followed by The Kings of NXT. They’re better than you, you suck, cheers!. They have the greatest catchphrase in the history of our sport. Both teams made the decision in the back about who would be starting out in the ring, and who would wait in the cages, and so we begin with Kyle O’Reilly and Pete Dunne in the ring, the same two men who competed against each other in the man advantage ladder match just 2 weeks prior. The match gets 35 minutes. KOR and Dunne battle it out like only they know how until it’s time for The Kings of NXT to release one man from the shark cage. It’s Danny Burch! The Brit duo team up to grind the match to a halt and work over KOR’s body limb by limb. KOR begins to mount a comeback but Dunne and Burch cut him off and send him flying over the ropes into the next ring. It’s about that time now for the 2nd man for UE and 4th man overall to enter, and it’s Roderick Strong! Roddy makes a break for it and delivers an unlimited supply of backbreakers to both Pete Dunne and Danny Burch to even the odds. It’s finally 2 on 2 now and here is where we begin to get a straight-up tag team clinic. Double team maneuvers ablaze. Those four go at it until it’s time for The Kings 3rd man, and the 5th man overall, it’s Oney Lorcan! The Brit-Am brawlers have now been reunited inside the structure and it’s once again a shift of the power in the match, as a 3-on-2 beatdown of Roddy and Kyle continues from Oney, Danny and Pete. They hit all their high spots and slap lots of meat until it’s time for the 3rd man for UE, and 6th man overall, it’s ADAM COLE BAYBAY! Bobby Fish is about to slip past, but Cole being the loudmouth and attention seeker he is, brushes past Bobby, and once again, the arguably weakest link of the UE is left for last. Forgotten. LITERALLY brushed aside. Cole enters the cage and evens the odds once again. Panama Sunrises and Superkicks to all 3 members of the opposing team. The insanity rages on until it’s finally time for The Kings 4th man and 7th man overall, it’s the charismatic enigma, it’s Pat McAfee! The cage is empty for the KONXT and it’s Bobby Fish left all alone on the stage, trapped like a rat, waiting for his turn. McAfee rushes down to the ring and everyone else is down except Adam Cole. McAfee scales up the steps and Cole walks towards him. McAfee acts all tough at first but when Cole attempts a Superkick, McAfee makes a break for it. Adam Cole EXITS the WarGames cage and then begins to chase McAfee around the double rings. Shockingly, Pat, the ex-NFL dude, is a little bit faster, and Adam Cole proves to have been ultimately DUPED when McAfee dashes into the ring, slams the door shut, and Adam Cole is now locked outside. McAfee has outsmarted the UE leader, but no matter, Cole can just climb the cage to get back in! Cole begins scaling the cage but Dunne, Oney and Danny are there with steel chairs to try to fend Cole off. McAfee goes after Roddy and Kyle in the ring. As all this is happening, it is now time for the the final man of UE and final man overall in the match to be released, it’s Bobby Fish, Mr. Irrelevant, thought of last once again. Roddy and Kyle hulk up now and take it to Oney and Danny, then go after McAfee in a 2 on 1. Pete Dunne is left trying to fend off Adam Cole as Bobby Fish makes his way to the ring. Cole and Dunne trade blows on top of the cage now, and Cole finally makes it back inside the action as HE HITS A PANAMA SUNRISE ON PETE DUNNE OFF THE TOP OF WARGAMES ONTO THE CROWD OF RODDY, KYLE, PAT, ONEY AND DANNY. I’m sure a “MAMA MIA” rings through everyone’s ears in spirit. Fish gets in the ring and it’s officially ON. He covers all four members of the Kings, but all of them kick out. Now, let’s fast forward to the ending stages of the match. The Kings have the bright idea to incorporate some cage-inside-cage action, and Oney and Danny are sent to go move one of the shark cages on the stage, into the ring. Fast-forward some more, this plan ends up backfiring on The Kings, and Pat McAfee is locked inside a shark cage, and UE all collectively hammer away with kendo sticks, with McAfee having literally no escape. UE push the cage over, McAfee climbs out, and Cole hits a Last Shot, then collapses to the mat. Bobby Fish is the only member of UE on his feet and makes the cover, for the win. Bobby Fish has pinned Pat McAfee and has finally done something to prove himself as MORE than “the 4th best member of Undisputed Era”. Once Cole recovers, he reprimands Fish for stealing the pin from him. The two get heated but Kyle and Roddy are there to keep them apart. Fish and Cole don’t break eye contact as UE all raise each other's arms in victory.
  
• As you will see at the end of this post, I’ve organized a mini round robin tournament over the final 3 weeks of the year on NXT TV, with William Regal ruling that as a result of their impressive win in WarGames, The Undisputed Era are now each the top 4 contenders to the NXT Championship. They must all compete in singles matches against each other, G1 style. 0 points for a loss, 1 point for a draw, 2 points for a win. Whichever UE member ends up with the most points will be named the #1 Contender to Finn Balor’s NXT Championship, either the Royal Rumble weekend or the episode of NXT TV right before, if there is no Takeover. This not only creates exciting TV and lots of first-time matches in WWE that will, no shit, all be FANTASTIC, but it furthers that divide in UE that WWE were already teasing themselves before the whole thing got scrapped when Ridge Holland got hurt. I think this is a really interesting idea and it will be a hell of a lot of fun in execution.
  

WINNERS by PINFALL: The Undisputed Era

ENTRIES:

No.	Wrestler
1	Kyle O’Reilly
2	Pete Dunne
3	Danny Burch
4	Roderick Strong
5	Oney Lorcan
6	Adam Cole
7	Pat McAfee
8	Bobby Fish

• We get a shot of the women’s WarGames teams arriving at the arena earlier in the day, and a video package for our next match.

2ND MATCH: Cameron Grimes vs. Dexter Lumis (Strap match)

• Cameron Grimes is out first, making his usual entrance while looking over his shoulder a few times to see whether Lumis is sneaking up behind, followed by the man himself. The referee slips the strap around both men’s wrists and Grimes looks like he’s about to shit his pants with fear. The match gets 8 minutes. Because this, being a Dexter Lumis match, being a strap match, and being a match on a card with two WarGames matches, has no business going any longer than that. It can be a brief comedy match, a change of pace and a cool-down after the long and epic first match, so that we can come back up in energy for the rest of the show. Some spots in the match include Grimes trying to wrap Lumis up in the strap like a mummy, Grimes wrapping Lumis around the ringpost to try to win by count-out, basically Grimes trying every strategy possible to try and not touch OR get touched by Lumis. The match ends when Grimes whips Lumis off the ropes and hits the Collision Course (the standing Spanish-fly looking move he does), but they land so that Lumis has has the Silence locked in, and Grimes quickly passes out. Lumis has gotten the better of Grimes every step of the way in this feud, so it makes sense to continue the trend here. Grimes seems to be focused on as comedy relief right now, so he really doesn’t need the win. Lumis wins another Strap match, maybe this can become his specialty, like how Taker has HIAC, Mankind had the Boiler Room Brawl, etc. Moving on.

WINNER by CREEPY STARING: Dexter Lumis

• We get an announcement of the NXT Year-End awards show, and when voting will begin. A video package for the next match plays.

3RD MATCH: Leon Ruff (c) vs. Damian Priest vs. Johnny Gargano (Triple Threat match for the NXT North American Championship)

• Priest is out first, followed by Gargano, and finally, the improbable champion, Leon Ruff. We get formal ring introductions, and the match gets 12 minutes. That might seem short, but we need lots of time available for the two WarGames matches, and to be honest, this whole storyline with Ruff really doesn’t seem to be engaging to anyone at all. So let them go in there, get a few spots in, and do the business they need to do without doing too much. The match ends when Priest and Ruff are going at it in a friendly competition in the ring, and Priest hits a Reckoning on Ruff. Gargano slides in, and knocks Priest out of the ring. Gargano locks Ruff in the Garga-No Escape, but just as it looks like Ruff is going to tap, Priest comes right back in and hoists Johnny into the air with a chokeslam. Priest then powerbombs Leon ONTO Gargano and Leon rolls out of the ring, with Priest getting the cover on Gargano to win back the title. Priest should never have lost this belt in the first place and I’m yet to understand why he did. He was just starting to really find his mojo with it and was just starting to come into his own as an act on NXT. Leon Ruff just ain’t doing it for too many people to not take the title off him. I guess it was a fun experiment while it lasted. The North American title is back on Priest, Leon Ruff can enter into a feud with Santos Escobar over the Cruiserweight Title after this, and new challengers hopefully await for the big man. My picks? Either Killian Dain or Pete Dunne.

WINNER by PINFALL and NEW NXT North American Champion: Damian Priest

• We get an ad for WWE Battlegrounds, and then we go to the commentators who plug the official theme of the event. We get a video package for our next match.

4TH MATCH: Timothy Thatcher vs. Tommaso Ciampa (Singles match)

• Ciampa is out first followed by Thatcher’s music. It plays, and plays, and plays some more, but no Thatcher to be found. All of a sudden he ambushes Ciampa from behind and gets him in a Fishhook to try and get in a pre-match advantage. Ciampa is down and out but he demands the referee ring the bell, and he does so. The match gets 16 minutes. The whole match sees Thatcher methodically disintegrate Ciampa’s upper body. He locks in the Fujiwara armbar multiple times, but really focuses on the historically bad neck of Ciampa. Thatcher locks in Crossfaces and cranks the neck. This is very much a mat-based, groundwork type match, which normally wouldn’t translate too well in front of a Takeover crowd, but lucky for them, there isn’t one during this pandemic. After a technical masterclass, Thatcher ultimately gets the win after Ciampa taps out to a Gogoplata, the pain and anguish dealt out on his neck throughout the match proving too great to bear. It’s no monumental secret that Ciampa is in his last days as a pro-wrestler. He never wants to even sniff the main roster, and I respect him for that. He’s gonna spend his last year(s) in NXT, putting those that come in over, and looking like a class act in the process. Giving Ciampa the win here would give him no gain. He’s already done everything to do in NXT. For now, Thatch as Thatch can lives to be taught another day.

WINNER by SUBMISSION: Timothy Thatcher

• We get an ad for NXT on WWEShop. We get a video package for our main event.

5TH MATCH: Team Candice (Candice LeRae, Dakota Kai, Raquel Gonzalez and Toni Storm) vs. Team Shotzi (Shotzi Blackheart, Ember Moon, Io Shirai and Rhea Ripley) (WarGames match)

• Team Candice are out first followed by Team Shotzi in a gigantic motherfucking tank. It’s decided that Candice and Ember will be the two women beginning the match in the ring. The match gets 40 minutes. The two trade finisher attempts early but trade counter for counter until it’s time for the first member of Team Shotzi to be released from the shark cage, it’s Shotzi herself! Shotzi ambushes Candice and the babyfaces work over LeRae until it’s time for the 2nd member of Team Candice and fourth woman overall, it’s Toni Storm! Toni gets in just as Ember is mounting a comeback on Candice, and Toni blindsides Moon in a scene reminiscent to when she turned a few weeks ago. Once again Toni Storm is the thorn in Ember’s side, there to cut her off and give her the most painful blueballs. It’s two on two now until the advantage for Team Shotzi advances as released from the shark cage is the 3rd member of Team Shotzi and fifth woman overall, it’s the NXT Women’s Champion, Io Shirai! Io comes in hot with a double missile dropkick off the top, knocking down both Toni and Candice. Io successfully nails a moonsault on Toni, and tries the same on Candice, but the team captain gets her knees up and transitions it into the Garga-No Escape to soften Io up for later in the match once pins and submissions begin. Io, being the Women’s Champ, and as a result the biggest threat in the match to that point, is the subject of a 2-on-1 beatdown from the heels as they get their heat until it’s time for the 3rd member of Team Candice and sixth woman overall, it’s Dakota Kai! Dakota hits GTK’s to the babyfaces and the odds are once again evened, 3 on 3. The heels appear too much to bear… until the final member of Team Shotzi and seventh woman overall, it’s Rhea Ripley! Rhea takes care of Team Candice all by herself and brings in more weapons. The 4th member of Team Candice and 8th woman to be released from the shark cage overall, it’s Raquel Gonzalez! Every member of the match is now in the ring, and here we can finally get down to business. Fast-forward to the ending stages of the match, Team Shotzi get the victory after all 4 members hit their finishers on Raquel,as Ember hits an Eclipse that drops Raquel to a knee, Rhea then scoops her up and hits a Riptide, and then Raquel falls right into position for an Io moonsault, and finally a diving senton from Shotzi, who gets the pin as the other members of the team pose around her. The babyfaces absolutely have to win this in my eyes. They have been made to look like the biggest losers and idiots, and really the faces have more to gain from it than Team Candice. By the way, if you’re wondering why the Women’s WarGames is main eventing over the men’s, it’s because the men have main evented the last 3 years, and sharing is caring. Additionally, as much as I think he’s doing amazing work, there’s no reason Pat McAfee should be main eventing any show, much less a Takeover. Give the women’s division a chance to shine in the main event slot on this night, it’s one of the best parts about NXT at the moment. As far as a next challenger for Io Shirai, I'd go with Toni Storm. It’s a fresh match, and she and Io haven’t met yet in her title reign. A rematch from Evolution in 2018. Who wouldn’t be on board with that?

WINNERS by PINFALL: Team Shotzi

ENTRIES:

No.	Wrestler
1	Candice LeRae
2	Ember Moon
3	Shotzi Blackheart
4	Toni Storm
5	Io Shirai
6	Dakota Kai
7	Rhea Ripley
8	Raquel Gonzalez

FINAL RESULTS:

No.	Results	Stipulations	Times
1	The Undisputed Era (Adam Cole, Bobby Fish, Kyle O’Reilly and Roderick Strong) defeated The Kings of NXT (Pat McAfee, Pete Dunne, Oney Lorcan & Danny Burch)	WarGames match	35 minutes
2	Dexter Lumis defeated Cameron Grimes	Strap match	8 minutes
3	Damian Priest defeated Leon Ruff (c) and Johnny Gargano by Pinfall	Triple Threat match for the NXT North American Championship	12 minutes
4	Timothy Thatcher defeated Tommaso Ciampa by Submission	Singles match	16 minutes
5	Team Shotzi (Shotzi Blackheart, Ember Moon, Io Shirai and Rhea Ripley) defeated Team Candice (Candice LeRae, Dakota Kai, Raquel Gonzalez and Toni Storm)	WarGames match	40 minutes

UNDISPUTED ERA NXT CHAMPIONSHIP #1 CONTENDERSHIP ROUND-ROBIN TOURNAMENT:

NXT 12/16:

• Adam Cole vs. Roderick Strong
  
• Bobby Fish vs. Kyle O’Reilly
  

NXT 12/23:

• Kyle O’Reilly vs. Roderick Strong
  
• Adam Cole vs. Bobby Fish
  

NXT 12/30:

• Adam Cole vs. Kyle O’Reilly
  
• Bobby Fish vs. Roderick Strong
  

Well, that was the post. Thanks for reading! As always, let me know what you liked and/or what you didn’t like from the post, and what from the post you’d like to see actually happen on the show tomorrow night! Be sure to look out for my next post for the upcoming PPV, “How WWE Should Book Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2020”. Enjoy the show tomorrow night, everyone.

Week 02 - Sunday, 20SEP2020, 1:00pm

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Lions fan, coming in peace! I'm writing an article series where I predict the outcomes of Lions games using several methods, some of them logical, and some kinda bonkers. It was well-received last year, so this year I thought I would share the fun with our opponents as well! I hope you enjoy.
Well. That was rough. I don’t think any of us want to linger on Week 1, though, so let’s move on.
This week’s matchup is one that I anticipate every year, though it doesn’t often come this early in the season. We’re in Lambeau, folks. At least it’s not Week 17 and our season is riding on it, eh?
I’m not sure how I feel about this game, but we should get into the picks to see if there’s reason for hope.
For details about the methodology for these prediction approaches or an explanation of any rivalries, please see here.

Rivalry A: 'Cause I Ain't No Quartaback Girl

Prediction Method 1: Higher QB Rating Record: (0-1) / 0.0%

If this were last week and we were using 2019 numbers, Stafford would beat Rodgers by 14 places in the league. Unfortunately, all we have to use is last week’s Super Rodgers and underwhelming Stafford. Rodgers’s 90.5, good for 2nd place behind Lamar Jackson, beats Stafford’s 48.6 in 26th place.
Oh God, Trubisky was in 20th place, above Deshaun Watson and Tom Brady. What is happening, 2020?? (Oh right, he was playing Detroit’s defense)
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Prediction Method 2: Higher Passer Rating Record: (0-1) / 0.0%

Just like with QBR, Rodgers is riding a good showing, and Stafford is suffering from the opposite. Rodgers is in 4th place with a Passer Rating of 127.5, and Stafford falls to 28th with a 77.2. Rough.
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Rivalry B: As, Of Course, Is Tradition

Prediction Method 3: Better Turnover Differential Record: (1-0) / 100.0%

So far this season, Detroit has had no takeaways, and thrown one interception. Green Bay on the other hand, has had no giveaways and seized one interception. They’re like mirrors, except in this case only one of the faces is ugly.
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Prediction Method 4: Average Points Per Game Record: (0-1) / 0.0%

Now that we have 2020 stats to go by, we don’t have to use 2019 regular season records.
Crap, now that we have 2020 stats to go by, we don’t get to use 2019 regular season records.
For those who weren’t keeping a league-wide perspective last week, note that Green Bay led the league in scoring with 43 points. And we’ve only had one week. 43 divided by 1 is 43. Detroit only put up 23 points against Chicago, so this one isn’t particularly close.
(For the record, we would have lost this pick with 2019 stats, but it would have been 2.3 points per game instead of 20.0)
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Rivalry C: Every Now and Then

Prediction Method 5: Best 2019 Record Record: (1-0) / 100.0%

Just like last week, we know that any division rival had a better record than Detroit last season. How much better was Green Bay than Detroit’s 3-12-1? They led the division at 13-3.
I know, I’d repressed it from my memory until now as well. Yikes.
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Prediction Method 6: Best Team History Record Record: (1-0) / 100.0%

Another week, another long-running rivalry. Once again, that means that many of these wins and losses have been against each other. What’s the score?
Detroit Lions: (562-671-33) / 45.7%
Green Bay Packers: (769-591-42) / 56.3%
Remember last week when I talked about Chicago having the 4th best overall record in the league? Yeah, Green Bay is 2nd in the league. Rough division, man.
(Though that does give me an idea for next year...I should predict based on the all-time record of the two teams against one another. Somebody remind me.)
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Rivalry D: Upper Management vs The Union

Prediction Method 7: More Experienced Coaching Staff Record: (1-0) / 100.0%

Lions:

Matt Patricia: 2 years as a head coach Darrell Bevell: 14 years as an offensive coordinator Cory Undlin: 0 years as an defensive coordinator Brayden Coombs: 0 years as a special teams coordinator Total: 16 years

Oh no, this is gonna be a nightmare to write about every week. Get ready to read a lot about Bevell being the real brawn in this field.
Packers:

Matt LaFleur: 1 year as a head coach Nathaniel Hackett: 6 years as an offensive coordinator Mike Pettine: 7 years as an defensive coordinator Shawn Mennenga: 1 year as a special teams coordinator Total: 15 years

Shawn Mennenga actually has a fair bit of defensive coordinator, interestingly. In any case, we lost by one year last week (odd statement…), and we win by one year this week (still odd).
Pick: Detroit Lions

Prediction Method 8: More NFL Top 100 Players Record: (1-0) / 100.0%

Lions

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Packers

16) Aaron Rodgers, QB 33) Aaron Jones, RB 48) Za’Darius Smith, OLB 57) Davante Adams, WR 62) David Bakhtiari, OT 63) Preston Smith, OLB

Holy shit, really? Wow.
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Rivalry E: It's Just A Game

Prediction Method 9: Madden 21 Simulation Record: (1-0) / 100.0%

I’m calling an audible here. I was running Madden 19 because it’s the latest version I own (and I will not be upgrading any time soon), but this week I discovered that Jeremy Reisman of Pride of Detroit is streaming a Madden 21 simulation of Detroit’s matchup every Saturday! Even better, his Week 1 simulation ended in a Bears victory, consistent with my own Madden pick from last week, so the transition is seamless.
In this week’s sim, Detroit loses to Aaron Rodgers’s mustache by throwing a 5-yard pass on the last play of the game, which is regrettably accurate. I mean, they were down 35-14 Packers, but it’s the principle of the thing. Come on, man.
I’ve always been pretty lazy about the writeup for my own Madden sims, but I think I’m going to be deliberately brief for these. The actual stream is more entertaining than I ever took the time to be, since he records the whole thing and gives commentary (which is multiplied by how he knows how to talk about football waaayyyyyy better than I do). Click that link up there. It’s worth your time to give it a watch!
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Prediction Method 10: Tecmo Super Bowl Simulation Record: (0-1) / 0.0%

Spoiler alert, this week’s Tecmo matchup ends very similarly to the Madden one. Green Bay starts with the ball, and they score without much trouble. Detroit’s first effort manages to get all the way downfield, but an interception in the red zone strikes that from having any impact on the scoreboard. The Packers have no such trouble capitalizing on the turnover, and they get in again. Detroit manages to get halfway back before throwing another interception. Two plays later, Green Bay throws an interception. Two plays after that, Detroit throws yet another pick! What is going on down there?? Green Bay did manage to get into field goal range before the half ended, but their kick attempt got audible-donged. They also made an error on clock management and left Detroit enough time to get off a couple of plays, but the Lions squander that with a fumble on their first attempt.
They get the ball back to start the second half, but get intercepted on their second play yet again. The Packers get into the endzone on the feet of Aaron Rodgers and a 15-yard scramble, and I start getting bored watching. Suddenly, though, Detroit comes out like a tornado, and finally touch the endzone after a 45-yard kickoff return and just three offensive plays. Unfortunately, Green Bay immediately looks to Aaron Jones and he gets his third touchdown of the game (note that those images of him have been three different URLs!). Detroit still has some time to make a miracle happen, but they’re forced into a 4th and 17 situation, upon which Stafford gives up a huge sack. With two minutes left, that would be enough to ice it, but Green Bay scores again just for the heck of it, and that closes out a really ugly game for the silver and blue.
Final score, 35-7 Packers.
If Tecmo has its way, expect a lot of nasty turnovers, a surprising run from Rodgers, and a game that makes the NFC North situation even more clear.
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Rivalry F: Going To The Dogs

Prediction Method 11: Fen's Pick Record: (0-1) / 0.0%

For the second time in two weeks, Fen has opted to be a proper Michigander and support Detroit. She may be a fool, but she’s a dedicated one. A true Lions fan.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Prediction Method 12: Elena's Pick Record: (1-0) / 100.0%

Elena was so excited to pick this week that I only managed to get a picture after she made her pick and was on her way to the other. No, of course she wasn’t just excited about the treats. She loves helping me, that’s all.
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Rivalry G: This Was A Terrible Idea

Prediction Method 13: My Wife's Pick Record: (0-1) / 0.0%

“As much as it pains me to say it, I’m pretty sure that Green Bay is going to win. Ugh, I feel gross even saying it.”
“Any particular reason?”
“We were trash against the Bears…?”
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Prediction Method 14: My Mother’s Pick Record: (0-1) / 0.0%

“I am going to pick, as much as I hate to, I’m going to pick the Packers. Because they seem to always win, and...I want to be right this week. So. If I have to do it that way, I will.”
“[Wife’s name] did the same thing.”
“Hahaha, yay! Great minds. Well, if memory serves me, that have a good team. I used to work with a couple of teachers who that was their team. They were always rooting for them and they were always good. So I thought, well...I would do that.”
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Rivalry H: Money, Meet Mouth

Prediction Method 15: OddsShark Forecast Record: (1-0) / 100.0%

Wow, no close game this week. At time of writing, OddsShark has the predicted score at 33.1-13.3 for the Packers. Aside from the odd quirks of a score made of only two digits and the fact that it’s a palindrome, there’s not much to say here. OddsShark is expecting a pretty one-sided affair.
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Prediction Method 16: My Pick Record: (0-1) / 0.0%

If there’s anything we have going for us, it’s that we don’t have the usual Lambeau crowd to contend with this year. Still, I’ll be real with you guys. I’m feeling skeptical after last week. The optimism fled my brain very quickly. Even though it seems to keep friggin happening, it just hurts to get shellacked by Mitchell Trubisky. It raised a lot of questions about this team that I thought had been answered already, and it answered some other questions in ways I didn’t want. Sure, we had key injuries, but we’ve still got some of that going on this week. In fact, I’d go so far as to say that we’ve been hammered with injuries. In particular, Golladay being out removes not only one of Stafford’s favorite weapons, but also a presence that helps take pressure off of Marvin Jones Jr. and elevates his play. And you know what? That “It raised a lot of questions...” sentence can be applied, without alteration, to the Packers/Vikings game last week, in all the ways that are worst for us.
Green Bay achieved an extremely convincing victory, and...I think the Vikings are better than us right now to begin with. I know football often doesn’t follow the transitive property, but unless a lot of things about our team get a lot better in a hurry, I just don’t see us pulling this one out.
O me of little faith.
Pick: Green Bay Packers

Unrivaled Methods

Prediction Method 17: A Literal Coin Flip Record: (1-0) / 100.0%

This time around, the coin stuck with Detroit. That also makes it 50/50 on each side, and, let’s be real, probably 50/50 on its prediction record as well.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Prediction Method 18: Honolulu Blue Kool-Aid Record: (0-1) / 0.0%

DID YOU KNOW THAT GREEN BAY BEAT THE LIONS IN PLAYOFF GAMES TWICE IN ONE CALENDAR YEAR? IN BOTH JANUARY AND DECEMBER OF 1994. YEAH, I KNOW. CRAZY, RIGHT?
WELL GUESS WHAT? NOW IT’S OUR TURN TO MAKE AN UNUSUAL STATEMENT, BY BEATING GREEN BAY THREE TIMES IN ONE SEASON. NOW, WEEK 17, AND WILD CARD WEEKEND. WAIT, THAT WOULD REQUIRE US TO NOT SECURE A WILD CARD BYE, WHICH WOULD BY EXTENSION REQUIRE US TO LOSE GAMES.
NO, YOU’RE CONTRADICTORY. SHUT UP. RODGERS IS PAST HIS PRIME OR SOMETHING. WHATEVER.
IS IT STILL TRENDY TO SAY “FTP”? LAMBEAU IS GONNA LOOK GOOD PAINTED HONOLULU BLUE.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Summary

Raw Prediction: Green Bay Packers (4 for Detroit Lions, 14 for Green Bay Packers) Raw Prediction record: (0-1) / 0.0%
Weighted Prediction: Green Bay Packers (2.0 for Detroit Lions, 7.0 for Green Bay Packers) Weighted Prediction record: (0-1) / 0.0%
Last week, the Raw Prediction and Weighted Prediction had to make the same call, due to a lack of assigned weights. With a week under our belts, though, this could have been an opportunity for the two to separate themselves.
...yeah, not happening, and I’m not surprised. With a full 77.8% of methods picking Green Bay this week, it only makes sense that both aggregate picks are going to the Pack, and frankly, I can’t blame them. By all accounts, this is going to be an unpleasant game for those of us on the side of Roary. Watch the game, but…

Hey everyone! Ever since Night Of Champions 2015, through multiple accounts, every month before major WWE pay-per-views, I’ve come on here and booked the cards to make them as exciting, intriguing, and best possible scenarios for the future. I do both NXT and main-roster pay-per-views, as well as the occasional big milestone RAW or Smackdown weekly show. Without further ado, here is how NXT TakeOver: Wargames IV should be booked

MY NXT TAKEOVER: WARGAMES POSTS OF PREVIOUS YEARS:

• 2017: https://old.reddit.com/SquaredCircle/comments/7dv1uu/how_nxt_takeover_wargames_should_be_booked/
  
• 2018: https://old.reddit.com/WWE/comments/9xp4sa/how_nxt_takeover_wargames_ii_should_be_booked/
  
• 2019: Didn’t do one.
  

MAIN SHOW:

• IT’S ALL ABOUT THE WARGAMES, AND HOW YOU PLAY IT. Sorry, had to get that in, as I do every year for the WarGames post. It’s that time o’year again. Like the groundhog on groundhog day rises from his slumber to see his shadow, William Regal is back standing between two teams of 4 NXT wrestlers, shouting WARGAMES. This card has its pros and it’s cons. NXT isn’t what it once was, and isn’t what it could so easily be right now. Somewhere along the way they’ve fallen off, but I’m here, as always, to try and pick up the pieces. So load up those double rings, and let’s get into this one! As always, this isn’t what I think WILL happen, this is what I think SHOULD happen. Now, let’s distract ourselves from the real world with some pro wrestling.

1ST MATCH: The Kings of NXT (Pat McAfee, Pete Dunne, Oney Lorcan & Danny Burch) vs. The Undisputed Era (Adam Cole, Bobby Fish, Kyle O’Reilly and Roderick Strong) (WarGames match)

• Undisputed are out first, followed by The Kings of NXT. They’re better than you, you suck, cheers!. They have the greatest catchphrase in the history of our sport. Both teams made the decision in the back about who would be starting out in the ring, and who would wait in the cages, and so we begin with Kyle O’Reilly and Pete Dunne in the ring, the same two men who competed against each other in the man advantage ladder match just 2 weeks prior. The match gets 35 minutes. KOR and Dunne battle it out like only they know how until it’s time for The Kings of NXT to release one man from the shark cage. It’s Danny Burch! The Brit duo team up to grind the match to a halt and work over KOR’s body limb by limb. KOR begins to mount a comeback but Dunne and Burch cut him off and send him flying over the ropes into the next ring. It’s about that time now for the 2nd man for UE and 4th man overall to enter, and it’s Roderick Strong! Roddy makes a break for it and delivers an unlimited supply of backbreakers to both Pete Dunne and Danny Burch to even the odds. It’s finally 2 on 2 now and here is where we begin to get a straight-up tag team clinic. Double team maneuvers ablaze. Those four go at it until it’s time for The Kings 3rd man, and the 5th man overall, it’s Oney Lorcan! The Brit-Am brawlers have now been reunited inside the structure and it’s once again a shift of the power in the match, as a 3-on-2 beatdown of Roddy and Kyle continues from Oney, Danny and Pete. They hit all their high spots and slap lots of meat until it’s time for the 3rd man for UE, and 6th man overall, it’s ADAM COLE BAYBAY! Bobby Fish is about to slip past, but Cole being the loudmouth and attention seeker he is, brushes past Bobby, and once again, the arguably weakest link of the UE is left for last. Forgotten. LITERALLY brushed aside. Cole enters the cage and evens the odds once again. Panama Sunrises and Superkicks to all 3 members of the opposing team. The insanity rages on until it’s finally time for The Kings 4th man and 7th man overall, it’s the charismatic enigma, it’s Pat McAfee! The cage is empty for the KONXT and it’s Bobby Fish left all alone on the stage, trapped like a rat, waiting for his turn. McAfee rushes down to the ring and everyone else is down except Adam Cole. McAfee scales up the steps and Cole walks towards him. McAfee acts all tough at first but when Cole attempts a Superkick, McAfee makes a break for it. Adam Cole EXITS the WarGames cage and then begins to chase McAfee around the double rings. Shockingly, Pat, the ex-NFL dude, is a little bit faster, and Adam Cole proves to have been ultimately DUPED when McAfee dashes into the ring, slams the door shut, and Adam Cole is now locked outside. McAfee has outsmarted the UE leader, but no matter, Cole can just climb the cage to get back in! Cole begins scaling the cage but Dunne, Oney and Danny are there with steel chairs to try to fend Cole off. McAfee goes after Roddy and Kyle in the ring. As all this is happening, it is now time for the the final man of UE and final man overall in the match to be released, it’s Bobby Fish, Mr. Irrelevant, thought of last once again. Roddy and Kyle hulk up now and take it to Oney and Danny, then go after McAfee in a 2 on 1. Pete Dunne is left trying to fend off Adam Cole as Bobby Fish makes his way to the ring. Cole and Dunne trade blows on top of the cage now, and Cole finally makes it back inside the action as HE HITS A PANAMA SUNRISE ON PETE DUNNE OFF THE TOP OF WARGAMES ONTO THE CROWD OF RODDY, KYLE, PAT, ONEY AND DANNY. I’m sure a “MAMA MIA” rings through everyone’s ears in spirit. Fish gets in the ring and it’s officially ON. He covers all four members of the Kings, but all of them kick out. Now, let’s fast forward to the ending stages of the match. The Kings have the bright idea to incorporate some cage-inside-cage action, and Oney and Danny are sent to go move one of the shark cages on the stage, into the ring. Fast-forward some more, this plan ends up backfiring on The Kings, and Pat McAfee is locked inside a shark cage, and UE all collectively hammer away with kendo sticks, with McAfee having literally no escape. UE push the cage over, McAfee climbs out, and Cole hits a Last Shot, then collapses to the mat. Bobby Fish is the only member of UE on his feet and makes the cover, for the win. Bobby Fish has pinned Pat McAfee and has finally done something to prove himself as MORE than “the 4th best member of Undisputed Era”. Once Cole recovers, he reprimands Fish for stealing the pin from him. The two get heated but Kyle and Roddy are there to keep them apart. Fish and Cole don’t break eye contact as UE all raise each other's arms in victory.
  
• As you will see at the end of this post, I’ve organized a mini round robin tournament over the final 3 weeks of the year on NXT TV, with William Regal ruling that as a result of their impressive win in WarGames, The Undisputed Era are now each the top 4 contenders to the NXT Championship. They must all compete in singles matches against each other, G1 style. 0 points for a loss, 1 point for a draw, 2 points for a win. Whichever UE member ends up with the most points will be named the #1 Contender to Finn Balor’s NXT Championship, either the Royal Rumble weekend or the episode of NXT TV right before, if there is no Takeover. This not only creates exciting TV and lots of first-time matches in WWE that will, no shit, all be FANTASTIC, but it furthers that divide in UE that WWE were already teasing themselves before the whole thing got scrapped when Ridge Holland got hurt. I think this is a really interesting idea and it will be a hell of a lot of fun in execution.
  

WINNERS by PINFALL: The Undisputed Era

ENTRIES:

No.	Wrestler
1	Kyle O’Reilly
2	Pete Dunne
3	Danny Burch
4	Roderick Strong
5	Oney Lorcan
6	Adam Cole
7	Pat McAfee
8	Bobby Fish

• We get a shot of the women’s WarGames teams arriving at the arena earlier in the day, and a video package for our next match.

2ND MATCH: Cameron Grimes vs. Dexter Lumis (Strap match)

• Cameron Grimes is out first, making his usual entrance while looking over his shoulder a few times to see whether Lumis is sneaking up behind, followed by the man himself. The referee slips the strap around both men’s wrists and Grimes looks like he’s about to shit his pants with fear. The match gets 8 minutes. Because this, being a Dexter Lumis match, being a strap match, and being a match on a card with two WarGames matches, has no business going any longer than that. It can be a brief comedy match, a change of pace and a cool-down after the long and epic first match, so that we can come back up in energy for the rest of the show. Some spots in the match include Grimes trying to wrap Lumis up in the strap like a mummy, Grimes wrapping Lumis around the ringpost to try to win by count-out, basically Grimes trying every strategy possible to try and not touch OR get touched by Lumis. The match ends when Grimes whips Lumis off the ropes and hits the Collision Course (the standing Spanish-fly looking move he does), but they land so that Lumis has has the Silence locked in, and Grimes quickly passes out. Lumis has gotten the better of Grimes every step of the way in this feud, so it makes sense to continue the trend here. Grimes seems to be focused on as comedy relief right now, so he really doesn’t need the win. Lumis wins another Strap match, maybe this can become his specialty, like how Taker has HIAC, Mankind had the Boiler Room Brawl, etc. Moving on.

WINNER by CREEPY STARING: Dexter Lumis

• We get an announcement of the NXT Year-End awards show, and when voting will begin. A video package for the next match plays.

3RD MATCH: Leon Ruff (c) vs. Damian Priest vs. Johnny Gargano (Triple Threat match for the NXT North American Championship)

• Priest is out first, followed by Gargano, and finally, the improbable champion, Leon Ruff. We get formal ring introductions, and the match gets 12 minutes. That might seem short, but we need lots of time available for the two WarGames matches, and to be honest, this whole storyline with Ruff really doesn’t seem to be engaging to anyone at all. So let them go in there, get a few spots in, and do the business they need to do without doing too much. The match ends when Priest and Ruff are going at it in a friendly competition in the ring, and Priest hits a Reckoning on Ruff. Gargano slides in, and knocks Priest out of the ring. Gargano locks Ruff in the Garga-No Escape, but just as it looks like Ruff is going to tap, Priest comes right back in and hoists Johnny into the air with a chokeslam. Priest then powerbombs Leon ONTO Gargano and Leon rolls out of the ring, with Priest getting the cover on Gargano to win back the title. Priest should never have lost this belt in the first place and I’m yet to understand why he did. He was just starting to really find his mojo with it and was just starting to come into his own as an act on NXT. Leon Ruff just ain’t doing it for too many people to not take the title off him. I guess it was a fun experiment while it lasted. The North American title is back on Priest, Leon Ruff can enter into a feud with Santos Escobar over the Cruiserweight Title after this, and new challengers hopefully await for the big man. My picks? Either Killian Dain or Pete Dunne.

WINNER by PINFALL and NEW NXT North American Champion: Damian Priest

• We get an ad for WWE Battlegrounds, and then we go to the commentators who plug the official theme of the event. We get a video package for our next match.

4TH MATCH: Timothy Thatcher vs. Tommaso Ciampa (Singles match)

• Ciampa is out first followed by Thatcher’s music. It plays, and plays, and plays some more, but no Thatcher to be found. All of a sudden he ambushes Ciampa from behind and gets him in a Fishhook to try and get in a pre-match advantage. Ciampa is down and out but he demands the referee ring the bell, and he does so. The match gets 16 minutes. The whole match sees Thatcher methodically disintegrate Ciampa’s upper body. He locks in the Fujiwara armbar multiple times, but really focuses on the historically bad neck of Ciampa. Thatcher locks in Crossfaces and cranks the neck. This is very much a mat-based, groundwork type match, which normally wouldn’t translate too well in front of a Takeover crowd, but lucky for them, there isn’t one during this pandemic. After a technical masterclass, Thatcher ultimately gets the win after Ciampa taps out to a Gogoplata, the pain and anguish dealt out on his neck throughout the match proving too great to bear. It’s no monumental secret that Ciampa is in his last days as a pro-wrestler. He never wants to even sniff the main roster, and I respect him for that. He’s gonna spend his last year(s) in NXT, putting those that come in over, and looking like a class act in the process. Giving Ciampa the win here would give him no gain. He’s already done everything to do in NXT. For now, Thatch as Thatch can lives to be taught another day.

WINNER by SUBMISSION: Timothy Thatcher

• We get an ad for NXT on WWEShop. We get a video package for our main event.

5TH MATCH: Team Candice (Candice LeRae, Dakota Kai, Raquel Gonzalez and Toni Storm) vs. Team Shotzi (Shotzi Blackheart, Ember Moon, Io Shirai and Rhea Ripley) (WarGames match)

• Team Candice are out first followed by Team Shotzi in a gigantic motherfucking tank. It’s decided that Candice and Ember will be the two women beginning the match in the ring. The match gets 40 minutes. The two trade finisher attempts early but trade counter for counter until it’s time for the first member of Team Shotzi to be released from the shark cage, it’s Shotzi herself! Shotzi ambushes Candice and the babyfaces work over LeRae until it’s time for the 2nd member of Team Candice and fourth woman overall, it’s Toni Storm! Toni gets in just as Ember is mounting a comeback on Candice, and Toni blindsides Moon in a scene reminiscent to when she turned a few weeks ago. Once again Toni Storm is the thorn in Ember’s side, there to cut her off and give her the most painful blueballs. It’s two on two now until the advantage for Team Shotzi advances as released from the shark cage is the 3rd member of Team Shotzi and fifth woman overall, it’s the NXT Women’s Champion, Io Shirai! Io comes in hot with a double missile dropkick off the top, knocking down both Toni and Candice. Io successfully nails a moonsault on Toni, and tries the same on Candice, but the team captain gets her knees up and transitions it into the Garga-No Escape to soften Io up for later in the match once pins and submissions begin. Io, being the Women’s Champ, and as a result the biggest threat in the match to that point, is the subject of a 2-on-1 beatdown from the heels as they get their heat until it’s time for the 3rd member of Team Candice and sixth woman overall, it’s Dakota Kai! Dakota hits GTK’s to the babyfaces and the odds are once again evened, 3 on 3. The heels appear too much to bear… until the final member of Team Shotzi and seventh woman overall, it’s Rhea Ripley! Rhea takes care of Team Candice all by herself and brings in more weapons. The 4th member of Team Candice and 8th woman to be released from the shark cage overall, it’s Raquel Gonzalez! Every member of the match is now in the ring, and here we can finally get down to business. Fast-forward to the ending stages of the match, Team Shotzi get the victory after all 4 members hit their finishers on Raquel,as Ember hits an Eclipse that drops Raquel to a knee, Rhea then scoops her up and hits a Riptide, and then Raquel falls right into position for an Io moonsault, and finally a diving senton from Shotzi, who gets the pin as the other members of the team pose around her. The babyfaces absolutely have to win this in my eyes. They have been made to look like the biggest losers and idiots, and really the faces have more to gain from it than Team Candice. By the way, if you’re wondering why the Women’s WarGames is main eventing over the men’s, it’s because the men have main evented the last 3 years, and sharing is caring. Additionally, as much as I think he’s doing amazing work, there’s no reason Pat McAfee should be main eventing any show, much less a Takeover. Give the women’s division a chance to shine in the main event slot on this night, it’s one of the best parts about NXT at the moment. As far as a next challenger for Io Shirai, I'd go with Toni Storm. It’s a fresh match, and she and Io haven’t met yet in her title reign. A rematch from Evolution in 2018. Who wouldn’t be on board with that?

WINNERS by PINFALL: Team Shotzi

ENTRIES:

No.	Wrestler
1	Candice LeRae
2	Ember Moon
3	Shotzi Blackheart
4	Toni Storm
5	Io Shirai
6	Dakota Kai
7	Rhea Ripley
8	Raquel Gonzalez

FINAL RESULTS:

No.	Results	Stipulations	Times
1	The Undisputed Era (Adam Cole, Bobby Fish, Kyle O’Reilly and Roderick Strong) defeated The Kings of NXT (Pat McAfee, Pete Dunne, Oney Lorcan & Danny Burch)	WarGames match	35 minutes
2	Dexter Lumis defeated Cameron Grimes	Strap match	8 minutes
3	Damian Priest defeated Leon Ruff (c) and Johnny Gargano by Pinfall	Triple Threat match for the NXT North American Championship	12 minutes
4	Timothy Thatcher defeated Tommaso Ciampa by Submission	Singles match	16 minutes
5	Team Shotzi (Shotzi Blackheart, Ember Moon, Io Shirai and Rhea Ripley) defeated Team Candice (Candice LeRae, Dakota Kai, Raquel Gonzalez and Toni Storm)	WarGames match	40 minutes

UNDISPUTED ERA NXT CHAMPIONSHIP #1 CONTENDERSHIP ROUND-ROBIN TOURNAMENT:

NXT 12/16:

• Adam Cole vs. Roderick Strong
  
• Bobby Fish vs. Kyle O’Reilly
  

NXT 12/23:

• Kyle O’Reilly vs. Roderick Strong
  
• Adam Cole vs. Bobby Fish
  

NXT 12/30:

• Adam Cole vs. Kyle O’Reilly
  
• Bobby Fish vs. Roderick Strong
  

Well, that was the post. Thanks for reading! As always, let me know what you liked and/or what you didn’t like from the post, and what from the post you’d like to see actually happen on the show tomorrow night! Be sure to look out for my next post for the upcoming PPV, “How WWE Should Book Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2020”. Enjoy the show tomorrow night, everyone.

Hey everyone! Ever since Night Of Champions 2015, through multiple accounts, every month before major WWE pay-per-views, I’ve come on here and booked the cards to make them as exciting, intriguing, and best possible scenarios for the future. I do both NXT and main-roster pay-per-views, as well as the occasional big milestone RAW or Smackdown weekly show. Without further ado, here is how NXT TakeOver: Wargames IV should be booked

MY NXT TAKEOVER: WARGAMES POSTS OF PREVIOUS YEARS:

• 2017: https://old.reddit.com/SquaredCircle/comments/7dv1uu/how_nxt_takeover_wargames_should_be_booked/
  
• 2018: https://old.reddit.com/WWE/comments/9xp4sa/how_nxt_takeover_wargames_ii_should_be_booked/
  
• 2019: Didn’t do one.
  

MAIN SHOW:

• IT’S ALL ABOUT THE WARGAMES, AND HOW YOU PLAY IT. Sorry, had to get that in, as I do every year for the WarGames post. It’s that time o’year again. Like the groundhog on groundhog day rises from his slumber to see his shadow, William Regal is back standing between two teams of 4 NXT wrestlers, shouting WARGAMES. This card has its pros and it’s cons. NXT isn’t what it once was, and isn’t what it could so easily be right now. Somewhere along the way they’ve fallen off, but I’m here, as always, to try and pick up the pieces. So load up those double rings, and let’s get into this one! As always, this isn’t what I think WILL happen, this is what I think SHOULD happen. Now, let’s distract ourselves from the real world with some pro wrestling.

1ST MATCH: The Kings of NXT (Pat McAfee, Pete Dunne, Oney Lorcan & Danny Burch) vs. The Undisputed Era (Adam Cole, Bobby Fish, Kyle O’Reilly and Roderick Strong) (WarGames match)

• Undisputed are out first, followed by The Kings of NXT. They’re better than you, you suck, cheers!. They have the greatest catchphrase in the history of our sport. Both teams made the decision in the back about who would be starting out in the ring, and who would wait in the cages, and so we begin with Kyle O’Reilly and Pete Dunne in the ring, the same two men who competed against each other in the man advantage ladder match just 2 weeks prior. The match gets 35 minutes. KOR and Dunne battle it out like only they know how until it’s time for The Kings of NXT to release one man from the shark cage. It’s Danny Burch! The Brit duo team up to grind the match to a halt and work over KOR’s body limb by limb. KOR begins to mount a comeback but Dunne and Burch cut him off and send him flying over the ropes into the next ring. It’s about that time now for the 2nd man for UE and 4th man overall to enter, and it’s Roderick Strong! Roddy makes a break for it and delivers an unlimited supply of backbreakers to both Pete Dunne and Danny Burch to even the odds. It’s finally 2 on 2 now and here is where we begin to get a straight-up tag team clinic. Double team maneuvers ablaze. Those four go at it until it’s time for The Kings 3rd man, and the 5th man overall, it’s Oney Lorcan! The Brit-Am brawlers have now been reunited inside the structure and it’s once again a shift of the power in the match, as a 3-on-2 beatdown of Roddy and Kyle continues from Oney, Danny and Pete. They hit all their high spots and slap lots of meat until it’s time for the 3rd man for UE, and 6th man overall, it’s ADAM COLE BAYBAY! Bobby Fish is about to slip past, but Cole being the loudmouth and attention seeker he is, brushes past Bobby, and once again, the arguably weakest link of the UE is left for last. Forgotten. LITERALLY brushed aside. Cole enters the cage and evens the odds once again. Panama Sunrises and Superkicks to all 3 members of the opposing team. The insanity rages on until it’s finally time for The Kings 4th man and 7th man overall, it’s the charismatic enigma, it’s Pat McAfee! The cage is empty for the KONXT and it’s Bobby Fish left all alone on the stage, trapped like a rat, waiting for his turn. McAfee rushes down to the ring and everyone else is down except Adam Cole. McAfee scales up the steps and Cole walks towards him. McAfee acts all tough at first but when Cole attempts a Superkick, McAfee makes a break for it. Adam Cole EXITS the WarGames cage and then begins to chase McAfee around the double rings. Shockingly, Pat, the ex-NFL dude, is a little bit faster, and Adam Cole proves to have been ultimately DUPED when McAfee dashes into the ring, slams the door shut, and Adam Cole is now locked outside. McAfee has outsmarted the UE leader, but no matter, Cole can just climb the cage to get back in! Cole begins scaling the cage but Dunne, Oney and Danny are there with steel chairs to try to fend Cole off. McAfee goes after Roddy and Kyle in the ring. As all this is happening, it is now time for the the final man of UE and final man overall in the match to be released, it’s Bobby Fish, Mr. Irrelevant, thought of last once again. Roddy and Kyle hulk up now and take it to Oney and Danny, then go after McAfee in a 2 on 1. Pete Dunne is left trying to fend off Adam Cole as Bobby Fish makes his way to the ring. Cole and Dunne trade blows on top of the cage now, and Cole finally makes it back inside the action as HE HITS A PANAMA SUNRISE ON PETE DUNNE OFF THE TOP OF WARGAMES ONTO THE CROWD OF RODDY, KYLE, PAT, ONEY AND DANNY. I’m sure a “MAMA MIA” rings through everyone’s ears in spirit. Fish gets in the ring and it’s officially ON. He covers all four members of the Kings, but all of them kick out. Now, let’s fast forward to the ending stages of the match. The Kings have the bright idea to incorporate some cage-inside-cage action, and Oney and Danny are sent to go move one of the shark cages on the stage, into the ring. Fast-forward some more, this plan ends up backfiring on The Kings, and Pat McAfee is locked inside a shark cage, and UE all collectively hammer away with kendo sticks, with McAfee having literally no escape. UE push the cage over, McAfee climbs out, and Cole hits a Last Shot, then collapses to the mat. Bobby Fish is the only member of UE on his feet and makes the cover, for the win. Bobby Fish has pinned Pat McAfee and has finally done something to prove himself as MORE than “the 4th best member of Undisputed Era”. Once Cole recovers, he reprimands Fish for stealing the pin from him. The two get heated but Kyle and Roddy are there to keep them apart. Fish and Cole don’t break eye contact as UE all raise each other's arms in victory.
  
• As you will see at the end of this post, I’ve organized a mini round robin tournament over the final 3 weeks of the year on NXT TV, with William Regal ruling that as a result of their impressive win in WarGames, The Undisputed Era are now each the top 4 contenders to the NXT Championship. They must all compete in singles matches against each other, G1 style. 0 points for a loss, 1 point for a draw, 2 points for a win. Whichever UE member ends up with the most points will be named the #1 Contender to Finn Balor’s NXT Championship, either the Royal Rumble weekend or the episode of NXT TV right before, if there is no Takeover. This not only creates exciting TV and lots of first-time matches in WWE that will, no shit, all be FANTASTIC, but it furthers that divide in UE that WWE were already teasing themselves before the whole thing got scrapped when Ridge Holland got hurt. I think this is a really interesting idea and it will be a hell of a lot of fun in execution.
  

WINNERS by PINFALL: The Undisputed Era

ENTRIES:

No.	Wrestler
1	Kyle O’Reilly
2	Pete Dunne
3	Danny Burch
4	Roderick Strong
5	Oney Lorcan
6	Adam Cole
7	Pat McAfee
8	Bobby Fish

• We get a shot of the women’s WarGames teams arriving at the arena earlier in the day, and a video package for our next match.

2ND MATCH: Cameron Grimes vs. Dexter Lumis (Strap match)

• Cameron Grimes is out first, making his usual entrance while looking over his shoulder a few times to see whether Lumis is sneaking up behind, followed by the man himself. The referee slips the strap around both men’s wrists and Grimes looks like he’s about to shit his pants with fear. The match gets 8 minutes. Because this, being a Dexter Lumis match, being a strap match, and being a match on a card with two WarGames matches, has no business going any longer than that. It can be a brief comedy match, a change of pace and a cool-down after the long and epic first match, so that we can come back up in energy for the rest of the show. Some spots in the match include Grimes trying to wrap Lumis up in the strap like a mummy, Grimes wrapping Lumis around the ringpost to try to win by count-out, basically Grimes trying every strategy possible to try and not touch OR get touched by Lumis. The match ends when Grimes whips Lumis off the ropes and hits the Collision Course (the standing Spanish-fly looking move he does), but they land so that Lumis has has the Silence locked in, and Grimes quickly passes out. Lumis has gotten the better of Grimes every step of the way in this feud, so it makes sense to continue the trend here. Grimes seems to be focused on as comedy relief right now, so he really doesn’t need the win. Lumis wins another Strap match, maybe this can become his specialty, like how Taker has HIAC, Mankind had the Boiler Room Brawl, etc. Moving on.

WINNER by CREEPY STARING: Dexter Lumis

• We get an announcement of the NXT Year-End awards show, and when voting will begin. A video package for the next match plays.

3RD MATCH: Leon Ruff (c) vs. Damian Priest vs. Johnny Gargano (Triple Threat match for the NXT North American Championship)

• Priest is out first, followed by Gargano, and finally, the improbable champion, Leon Ruff. We get formal ring introductions, and the match gets 12 minutes. That might seem short, but we need lots of time available for the two WarGames matches, and to be honest, this whole storyline with Ruff really doesn’t seem to be engaging to anyone at all. So let them go in there, get a few spots in, and do the business they need to do without doing too much. The match ends when Priest and Ruff are going at it in a friendly competition in the ring, and Priest hits a Reckoning on Ruff. Gargano slides in, and knocks Priest out of the ring. Gargano locks Ruff in the Garga-No Escape, but just as it looks like Ruff is going to tap, Priest comes right back in and hoists Johnny into the air with a chokeslam. Priest then powerbombs Leon ONTO Gargano and Leon rolls out of the ring, with Priest getting the cover on Gargano to win back the title. Priest should never have lost this belt in the first place and I’m yet to understand why he did. He was just starting to really find his mojo with it and was just starting to come into his own as an act on NXT. Leon Ruff just ain’t doing it for too many people to not take the title off him. I guess it was a fun experiment while it lasted. The North American title is back on Priest, Leon Ruff can enter into a feud with Santos Escobar over the Cruiserweight Title after this, and new challengers hopefully await for the big man. My picks? Either Killian Dain or Pete Dunne.

WINNER by PINFALL and NEW NXT North American Champion: Damian Priest

• We get an ad for WWE Battlegrounds, and then we go to the commentators who plug the official theme of the event. We get a video package for our next match.

4TH MATCH: Timothy Thatcher vs. Tommaso Ciampa (Singles match)

• Ciampa is out first followed by Thatcher’s music. It plays, and plays, and plays some more, but no Thatcher to be found. All of a sudden he ambushes Ciampa from behind and gets him in a Fishhook to try and get in a pre-match advantage. Ciampa is down and out but he demands the referee ring the bell, and he does so. The match gets 16 minutes. The whole match sees Thatcher methodically disintegrate Ciampa’s upper body. He locks in the Fujiwara armbar multiple times, but really focuses on the historically bad neck of Ciampa. Thatcher locks in Crossfaces and cranks the neck. This is very much a mat-based, groundwork type match, which normally wouldn’t translate too well in front of a Takeover crowd, but lucky for them, there isn’t one during this pandemic. After a technical masterclass, Thatcher ultimately gets the win after Ciampa taps out to a Gogoplata, the pain and anguish dealt out on his neck throughout the match proving too great to bear. It’s no monumental secret that Ciampa is in his last days as a pro-wrestler. He never wants to even sniff the main roster, and I respect him for that. He’s gonna spend his last year(s) in NXT, putting those that come in over, and looking like a class act in the process. Giving Ciampa the win here would give him no gain. He’s already done everything to do in NXT. For now, Thatch as Thatch can lives to be taught another day.

WINNER by SUBMISSION: Timothy Thatcher

• We get an ad for NXT on WWEShop. We get a video package for our main event.

5TH MATCH: Team Candice (Candice LeRae, Dakota Kai, Raquel Gonzalez and Toni Storm) vs. Team Shotzi (Shotzi Blackheart, Ember Moon, Io Shirai and Rhea Ripley) (WarGames match)

• Team Candice are out first followed by Team Shotzi in a gigantic motherfucking tank. It’s decided that Candice and Ember will be the two women beginning the match in the ring. The match gets 40 minutes. The two trade finisher attempts early but trade counter for counter until it’s time for the first member of Team Shotzi to be released from the shark cage, it’s Shotzi herself! Shotzi ambushes Candice and the babyfaces work over LeRae until it’s time for the 2nd member of Team Candice and fourth woman overall, it’s Toni Storm! Toni gets in just as Ember is mounting a comeback on Candice, and Toni blindsides Moon in a scene reminiscent to when she turned a few weeks ago. Once again Toni Storm is the thorn in Ember’s side, there to cut her off and give her the most painful blueballs. It’s two on two now until the advantage for Team Shotzi advances as released from the shark cage is the 3rd member of Team Shotzi and fifth woman overall, it’s the NXT Women’s Champion, Io Shirai! Io comes in hot with a double missile dropkick off the top, knocking down both Toni and Candice. Io successfully nails a moonsault on Toni, and tries the same on Candice, but the team captain gets her knees up and transitions it into the Garga-No Escape to soften Io up for later in the match once pins and submissions begin. Io, being the Women’s Champ, and as a result the biggest threat in the match to that point, is the subject of a 2-on-1 beatdown from the heels as they get their heat until it’s time for the 3rd member of Team Candice and sixth woman overall, it’s Dakota Kai! Dakota hits GTK’s to the babyfaces and the odds are once again evened, 3 on 3. The heels appear too much to bear… until the final member of Team Shotzi and seventh woman overall, it’s Rhea Ripley! Rhea takes care of Team Candice all by herself and brings in more weapons. The 4th member of Team Candice and 8th woman to be released from the shark cage overall, it’s Raquel Gonzalez! Every member of the match is now in the ring, and here we can finally get down to business. Fast-forward to the ending stages of the match, Team Shotzi get the victory after all 4 members hit their finishers on Raquel,as Ember hits an Eclipse that drops Raquel to a knee, Rhea then scoops her up and hits a Riptide, and then Raquel falls right into position for an Io moonsault, and finally a diving senton from Shotzi, who gets the pin as the other members of the team pose around her. The babyfaces absolutely have to win this in my eyes. They have been made to look like the biggest losers and idiots, and really the faces have more to gain from it than Team Candice. By the way, if you’re wondering why the Women’s WarGames is main eventing over the men’s, it’s because the men have main evented the last 3 years, and sharing is caring. Additionally, as much as I think he’s doing amazing work, there’s no reason Pat McAfee should be main eventing any show, much less a Takeover. Give the women’s division a chance to shine in the main event slot on this night, it’s one of the best parts about NXT at the moment. As far as a next challenger for Io Shirai, I'd go with Toni Storm. It’s a fresh match, and she and Io haven’t met yet in her title reign. A rematch from Evolution in 2018. Who wouldn’t be on board with that?

WINNERS by PINFALL: Team Shotzi

ENTRIES:

No.	Wrestler
1	Candice LeRae
2	Ember Moon
3	Shotzi Blackheart
4	Toni Storm
5	Io Shirai
6	Dakota Kai
7	Rhea Ripley
8	Raquel Gonzalez

FINAL RESULTS:

No.	Results	Stipulations	Times
1	The Undisputed Era (Adam Cole, Bobby Fish, Kyle O’Reilly and Roderick Strong) defeated The Kings of NXT (Pat McAfee, Pete Dunne, Oney Lorcan & Danny Burch)	WarGames match	35 minutes
2	Dexter Lumis defeated Cameron Grimes	Strap match	8 minutes
3	Damian Priest defeated Leon Ruff (c) and Johnny Gargano by Pinfall	Triple Threat match for the NXT North American Championship	12 minutes
4	Timothy Thatcher defeated Tommaso Ciampa by Submission	Singles match	16 minutes
5	Team Shotzi (Shotzi Blackheart, Ember Moon, Io Shirai and Rhea Ripley) defeated Team Candice (Candice LeRae, Dakota Kai, Raquel Gonzalez and Toni Storm)	WarGames match	40 minutes

UNDISPUTED ERA NXT CHAMPIONSHIP #1 CONTENDERSHIP ROUND-ROBIN TOURNAMENT:

NXT 12/16:

• Adam Cole vs. Roderick Strong
  
• Bobby Fish vs. Kyle O’Reilly
  

NXT 12/23:

• Kyle O’Reilly vs. Roderick Strong
  
• Adam Cole vs. Bobby Fish
  

NXT 12/30:

• Adam Cole vs. Kyle O’Reilly
  
• Bobby Fish vs. Roderick Strong
  

Well, that was the post. Thanks for reading! As always, let me know what you liked and/or what you didn’t like from the post, and what from the post you’d like to see actually happen on the show tomorrow night! Be sure to look out for my next post for the upcoming PPV, “How WWE Should Book Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2020”. Enjoy the show tomorrow night, everyone.

Week 06 - Sunday, 18OCT2020, 1:00pm

Detroit Lions @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Lions fan here! I'm writing an article series where I predict the outcomes of Lions games using several methods, some of them logical, and some kinda bonkers. It was well-received last year, so this year I thought I would share the fun with our opponents as well. This particular week, the Cat Team Brotherhood also gets in on the action! I hope you enjoy.
The last set of picks swung overwhelmingly in favor of New Orleans, which surprised no one. The outcome of the game also surprised no one. Detroit fans’ resulting apathy, again, surprised no one.
What was surprising is that we managed to come out of the Week 5 bye without a loss.
That said, Detroit has one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league, if not the easiest. Does the Week 6 matchup against the Jaguars offer any hope for this ship to be turned around? And, like, taken all the way back to port, decommissioned, and rebuilt into a better, sturdier ship with fewer leaks?
Although I guess if you want a new captain, this ship has to sink first. Are there circumstances under which a maritime disaster can count as a win-win? Asking for 9.987 million friends.
For details about the methodology for these prediction approaches or an explanation of any rivalries, please see here.

Rivalry A: 'Cause I Ain't No Quartaback Girl

Prediction Method 1: Higher QB Rating Record: (2-2) / 50.0%

The Man with the Mustache Gardner Minshew is coming into this game with a QBR of 64.9, smack dab in the middle of the league at 16th. Matthew Stafford’s rough year continues to haunt him, as he finds himself at only a 62.9, good for 18th.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Method 2: Higher Passer Rating Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

The NFL’s own rating finds Minshew with a 99.4, which is 15th in the league. Stafford regrettably lands at 18th once again, with a 93.8.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Rivalry B: As, Of Course, Is Tradition

Prediction Method 3: Better Turnover Differential Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

Detroit’s defense continues to sputter, yet they find themselves at a +1 differential after four weeks of play, having made four interceptions while only losing three. Jacksonville, in contrast, lands at -2, seizing five interceptions but losing four of their own and giving up three fumbles. Detroit manages to get their first pick of the week.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Prediction Method 4: Average Points Per Game Record: (2-2) / 50.0%

Even on the worst of days, you can usually expect Detroit’s offense to do...well, something. They’re having problems, sure, but they show flashes of brilliance that make you wonder about alternate realities in which all of their pieces manage to click together. In this reality, however, they rank 19th in the league for PPG, with 24.8 (for reference, Green Bay leads the pack with 38.0). Jacksonville loses this one by exactly one field goal per game, coming in at 26th with an average PPG of 21.8 after five weeks.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry C: Every Now and Then

Prediction Method 5: Best 2019 Record Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

I get sad whenever I have to write about Detroit’s (3-12-1) record from 2019. I also get a little antsy wondering if this year’s will be worse. The Jags probably have a similar feeling, as they finished their 2019-20 season in last place for their division as well. In fact, that’s why we’re scheduled to play each other in the first place (or last place, as the case may be). Still, they have some more wiggle room to work with, as their last place finish came on the frantically flapping wings of a (6-10) year. That’s almost twice as good. Take some comfort in that, Jaguars fans.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Method 6: Best Team History Record Record: (4-0) / 100.0%

This method is the only undefeated one remaining. We’ll see if that sticks. Jacksonville is one of the youngest teams in the NFL (by longevity, not age of the roster), which means every win and loss has a greater impact on their overall win percentage.
Detroit Lions: (563-673-33) / 45.7%
Jacksonville Jaguars: (177-228-0) / 43.7%
They’re also one of only two teams to never end a game in a tie, interestingly (the other being the also-young Houston Texans). All that this means is that the true Jacksonville legacy is yet to be discovered. It’ll come in time. Which is probably a good thing because as of right now their overall record is worse than the Detroit Frickin’ Lions’.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry D: Upper Management vs The Union

Prediction Method 7: More Experienced Coaching Staff Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

Lions:

Matt Patricia: 2 years as a head coach Darrell Bevell: 14 years as an offensive coordinator Cory Undlin: 0 years as an defensive coordinator Brayden Coombs: 0 years as a special teams coordinator Total: 16 years

Bevell has the experience here, and the way this season is going, nobody else in this organization is going to have their NFL coaching careers last anywhere near as long as his.
Jaguars:

Doug Marrone: 5 years as a head coach Jay Gruden: 3 years as an offensive coordinator Todd Wash: 4 years as an defensive coordinator Joe DeCamillis: 32 years as a special teams coordinator* Total: 44 years

Holy smokes, Joe DeCamillis! To be clear, I counted his years listed as an NFL “special teams coach” as experience toward being a special teams coordinator. Even without that, he would hit 11 years and the Jaguars would still take this category, so I’m going to include it to give credit to that. That kind of longevity in one of the “big four” coaching positions in the NFL (even if people consider special teams to be the “lesser” one) is an achievement worth recognizing.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Method 8: More NFL Top 100 Players Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

Lions

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Jaguars

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Poor Detroit. There are only six teams with no players on the NFL Top 100, which is the only way the Lions have a hope of taking this category. Sadly, in a tie, these picks favor the home team, so the prediction goes to Jacksonville anyway.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Rivalry E: It's Just A Game

Prediction Method 9: Madden 21 Simulation Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

During the bye, Jeremy Reisman’s Lions managed a win against the New York Jets, just for funsies. Coming back to reality this week means...well, coming back to reality, as Detroit drops another game. The Lions lost to the Jags, 22-17.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Method 10: Tecmo Super Bowl Simulation Record: (2-2) / 50.0%

I don’t have a long writeup with screenshots for this one this week, but rest assured it was a pretty boring game. Punts were plentiful, as neither offense could get much going. The only interesting plays were a long evasive TD run from Kerryon Johnson (124 yards on the day), and then a Jaguars fumble on the kickoff that followed that was picked up for a nice run by Matt Prater of all people. Jacksonville had a chance for a long touchdown throw to win as the final seconds expired, but the pass was dropped by a wide open receiver.
Lions win, 20-14.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry F: Going To The Dogs

Prediction Method 11: Fen's Pick Record: (0-4) / 0.0%

Fen has really held the faith this year. She’s getting upset that her sister is kicking her butt so much, and she continues to pick who she really thinks she’s going to win, but...poor naive girl, she continues to really think that that’s going to be Detroit. That has been to her detriment so far, as she is the only method with an 0-4 record, but she keeps it up this week. Fen favors Detroit.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Prediction Method 12: Elena's Pick Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

Elena got her first haircut! She also continues to cruise along, making picks willy-nilly and getting them right. This time around she opts for Jacksonville. Perhaps she’s starting to feel safe picking against Detroit?
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Rivalry G: This Was A Terrible Idea

Prediction Method 13: My Wife's Pick Record: (2-2) / 50.0%

My wife’s practicality and my mom’s misplaced faith in Detroit has led them back to matching records this week. Will that stick?
“Who’s your pick for Week 6?”
“Who’s playing?”
“The Lions are playing the Jaguars, in Jacksonville.”
“I guess it doesn’t really matter...I’m gonna say ‘not the Lions’. Just sad, really.”
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Method 14: My Mother’s Pick Record: (2-2) / 50.0%

“Who’s your pick for this week?”
“Detroit.”
“Okay, how come?”
“Because I don’t know who they’re playing and that’s all I could say. ...who are they playing?”
“The Jacksonville Jaguars.”
“Oh. Detroit. ‘Cause I don’t know anything about them anyway.”
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry H: Money, Meet Mouth

Prediction Method 15: OddsShark Forecast Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

This is not the narrowest score differential that OddsShark has called for Detroit this year. They have the Jaguars winning fairly safely with a predicted score of 28.4 - 23.7.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Method 16: My Pick Record: (2-2) / 50.0%

This Lions team is fairly shite. Its defense has to be the worst I’ve seen since 2008. The offense is capable of moving the ball, but not well. I have little hope for even an 8-8 season. And yet...
And yet.
I can’t help but feel a little optimistic this week. I mean no offense to the Jaguars fans of the world, because we’re right there with you, but you’re pretty shite this year as well. Barring a tie, this week is going to see one of our teams getting its second win of the year, which doesn’t speak well of either of us. And when a matchup is between fairly comparable teams, that’s when you can look up to the sky just a little bit. If there’s a week that Detroit can manage a win, it’s a week when they’re against a team that’s struggling through 2020 just as much as Detroit is. As much as we all are.
Call me crazy, but I could see it happening.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Unrivaled Methods

Prediction Method 17: A Literal Coin Flip Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

Last week the coin picked New Orleans, and I expressed interest in the possibility that the sentient coin was deliberately picking incorrectly in order to get back to a 50/50 record.
Nnnnnnnope.
And now that we know it’s trying to pick for realsies, this week’s selection of Jacksonville should be a little scarier.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Method 18: Honolulu Blue Kool-Aid Record: (1-3) / 25.0%

IT’S A CAT FIGHT, AND WHO WINS BETWEEN A PROUD, MANED CHAMPION, AND A SPECKLED OVERGROWN HOUSECAT? THE KING OF THE JUNGLE SAVANNAH, THAT’S WHO!
IT DOESN’T MATTER HOW MANY MUSTACHES YOU PILE ONTO YOUR OFFENSE, IT’LL NEVER BE ENOUGH TO HOLD UP TO A PACK OF LIONS BITING YOUR LEGS OFF. I MEAN, LET’S BE REAL, HERE. JACKSONVILLE HAS AN OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR THAT WASN’T GOOD ENOUGH FOR WASHINGTON, AND THEIR RECORD IS ACTUALLY WORSE THAN OURS SO FAR THIS YEAR. THIS WEEK IS IN THE BAG. AND THE BAG HAS “DETROIT RULES, JACKSONVILLE DROOLS” WRITTEN ON THE SIDE. LIKE, PRINTED ON WITH A COOL LOGO. AND THERE ARE A BUNCH OF YOUR FAVORITE SNACKS IN THE BAG, TOO.
WE’VE GOT THIS.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Summary

Raw Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars (8 for Detroit Lions, 10 Jacksonville Jaguars) Raw Prediction record: (2-2) / 50.0%
Weighted Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars (4.0 for Detroit Lions, 7.0 for Jacksonville Jaguars) Weighted Prediction record: (2-2) / 50.0%
Huh. I feel a little bit worse about my pick, seeing both overall predictions disagreeing with me. Also, how long can this consensus last? Every week I’ve been saying, “We’re getting closer to the point when the weights matter and the two aggregate picks could disagree”, yet they still haven’t hit that actual point. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s very likely. When’s it gonna happen?
I also notice that I’m not talking about the actual game in this outro. That wasn’t deliberate. I guess I’m just not excited about Detroit Lions football right now. It isn’t just losing that causes that, either. I can get excited about a losing team. Things just feel kind of...lifeless. Don’t they? I’m interested to see the outcome of this game, but it seems like a more academic interest. A sterile, clinical interest. An, “Oh, that’s interesting” interest.
Dammit, I miss being excited. It’s only a matter of time before it comes back, but I’d like it to hurry, please.

Week 01 - Sunday, 13SEP2020, 1:00pm

Detroit Lions v Chicago Bears

Funnily enough, my final full post last year was for Thanksgiving, which was a day on which we hosted the Bears. I only had to update the date in my header! The last time Chicago came to town, we lost 24-20, getting hammered with...3 Trubisky touchdowns? That can’t possibly be correct. Am I in a coma and just dreaming all of this? Has 2020 not been real?? If so, my imagination is MESSED UP.
For details about the methodology for these prediction approaches or an explanation of any rivalries, please see here.

Rivalry A: 'Cause I Ain't No Quartaback Girl

Prediction Method 1: Higher QB Rating Record: (0-0) / null%

While it’s true that he only played for half the season last year, Matthew Stafford’s QB Rating remains 6th in the league at 71.3 for the 2019 regular season. It’s not frozen, because in my last writeup, it was 69.0 (nice), and he hasn’t played a snap since then so...I’ll admit that I don’t know exactly how it works. Point is, 71.3.
At this time, it’s a little unclear who will become Chicago’s primary passer this year, but at least for Week 1 Mitchell Trubisky has been named the starter. For us, that’s great. For Chicago fans, that’s less great. For Nick Foles, who was unable to win a starting position from Mitchell Trubisky in training camp, that’s…probably complicated. And for this pick, it means that Stafford’s 71.3 QBR is up against Trubisky’s 28th-place 41.5.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Prediction Method 2: Higher Passer Rating Record: (0-0) / null%

Stafford also happens to rank 6th in the NFL’s Passer Rating, with a 106.0. Trubisky rises to 26th with an 83.0. That’s still bad, Mitchell.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry B: As, Of Course, Is Tradition

Prediction Method 3: Better Turnover Differential Record: (0-0) / null%

I just spent two predictions poking the bear (get it?) about Chicago’s offense, so I guess it’s time to own up to their defense. I think their defense will continue its slide from their 2018 dominance, but they still appear to be more than solid - at least on paper. And they ended their 2019 season with a turnover differential of exactly 0. With Trubisky throwing 10 interceptions last year (ha, got in one last zing!), that’s actually okay.
Detroit, on the other hand, ended with a differential of -5. Ouch, man.
Pick: Chicago Bears

Prediction Method 4: Average Points Per Game Record: (0-0) / null%

It appears that Detroit was just around the middle of the pack last year, in 18th place averaging 21.3 points per game (and that was without Stafford for much of the season!). Chicago fell in right near the bottom, 29th place with 17.5 points per game. Apparently those 4 points make quite the gulf between team positions.
For the record, the 2019 leader was Baltimore with 31.9, more than 10 points more. As you can see, it’s a much farther climb from the middle to the top than it is a fall from the middle to the bottom.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry C: Every Now and Then

Prediction Method 5: Best 2019 Record Record: (0-0) / null%

It’s only Week 1, and I’m telling you right now, it’s gonna get really depressing to write this piece of the article every week. Twist the knife, why don’t you.
Detroit finished 3-12-1 last year. Given that we know they came in last in the division, we know Chicago had a better record. Do we have to look up exactly what it was? Do we reaaaaaally?
Ugh. We do, and it was 8-8.
Pick: Chicago Bears

Prediction Method 6: Best Team History Record Record: (0-0) / null%

The Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears have the longest running annual series in the NFL, and that lengthy division rivalry means that a number of the wins and losses in these records will have come at the hands of the other team. I’m interested to look this up, though, because I honestly don’t know where they stand.
Detroit Lions: (562-670-33) / 45.7%
Chicago Bears: (769-591-42) / 56.3%
Holy shit, Chicago is fourth overall for all-time win percentage? Especially for such a venerable team, that’s...actually really cool. Hard times lately, maybe, but I don’t even have a joke for that. I’m impressed. Good job, Bears.
Pick: Chicago Bears

Rivalry D: Upper Management vs The Union

Prediction Method 7: More Experienced Coaching Staff Record: (0-0) / null%

Lions:

Matt Patricia: 2 years as a head coach Darrell Bevell: 14 years as an offensive coordinator Cory Undlin: 0 years as an defensive coordinator Brayden Coombs: 0 years as a special teams coordinator Total: 16 years

Bevell is really carrying this stable. Everyone else is pretty new to their positions, at least at the NFL level!
Bears:

Matt Nagy: 2 years as a head coach Bill Lazor: 4 years as an offensive coordinator Chuck Pagano: 2 years as an defensive coordinator Chris Tabor: 9 years as a special teams coordinator Total: 17 years

Their Matt is as experienced as our Matt, their offensive coordinator is named FRICKIN’ LAZOR, and Chris Tabor gives me Teez Tabor flashbacks. Regardless of any of that, they beat us in this category by one dang year. Boo.
Pick: Chicago Bears

Prediction Method 8: More NFL Top 100 Players Record: (0-0) / null%

Lions

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Bears

19) Khalil Mack, OLB 93) Allen Robinson, WR

Astute readers will notice that we have NO NFL TOP 100 PLAYERS. Slay made the list, but he isn’t with us anymore. I’ll be real with you; I did not realize that before I chose this metric. That said, I think it still works - it’ll always pick the opposing team unless they also have none (in which case the pick defaults to the home team), but it’s still making a selection, y’know? And in future years maybe this one will get more interesting, after we crush it this year and comprise the first 53 of the NFL Top 100 of 2021.
Pick: Chicago Bears

Rivalry E: It's Just A Game

Prediction Method 9: Madden 19 Simulation Record: (0-0) / null%

The thing about using Madden 19 is that it was built for the 2018-19 season, when Chicago was set to have an outstanding defensive performance. It was also when there were still a lot of questions about Trubisky, whereas Madden already knew they didn’t like Stafford all that much. As a result, this game features a lot of the “typical Lions” fare: Missing several 3rd down conversions in a row, interceptions thrown in enemy territory, wasting downs on a ground game that’s on life support, long drives ending with 4th and Goal field goals (“And Praaater’s kick is oooon the moneyyyy, it’s gooooood”)...you all know the kind of stuff I’m talking about.
The flailing Lions, combined with a great showing by Trubisky (417 yards and 4 TDs??) lead to a Bear win, 38-19.
Pick: Chicago Bears

Prediction Method 10: Tecmo Super Bowl Simulation Record: (0-0) / null%

Man, Chicago came out like a lion (or a bear, I guess) in this one. The Bears defense was utterly dominant. The Lions defense was...not. We allowed Trubisky the run of the field, which is annoyingly accurate to how it’s been lately, as we allow such a bad QB to carve us up. In this case, it led to 21 unanswered points. I’m blaming the weird brown uniforms(?). They’re camouflaged. Just sneak right up on ya.
Our own first points came when we were forced to punt, but Chicago fumbled on the return. We picked it up and ran it the remaining 35 yards to finally get on the board. We managed a proper score after receiving the ball to start the second half, followed by a stop, and a 50-yarder from Prater. Lions finally take the lead at 24-21! That seems to have woken up the Brown Bears, who immediately fire back with another touchdown, 28-24 Chicago.
The game is nearly over, so the pressure is on Detroit. Adrian Peterson gets injured on the next play (sure hope that isn’t an omen), but the following is a long touchdown pass to Golladay! Chicago now has a brief window in which they could score, but they’re forced to 3rd down, at which point Trubisky throws an interception to close out the game. All is right with the world.
31-28 Detroit.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry F: Going To The Dogs

Prediction Method 11: Fen's Pick Record: (0-0) / null%

Fen picks Detroit. Good girl.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Prediction Method 12: Elena's Pick Record: (0-0) / null%

What? Our new dog is faulty. What’s the number for customer support?
Pick: Chicago Bears

Rivalry G: This Was A Terrible Idea

Prediction Method 13: My Wife's Pick Record: (0-0) / null%

“Are we at home or away?”
“We are at home.”
“Hmm. Okay, I’m going to, with reservation, say that the Lions are going to win. Just because...the first home game, I really want to win. I’ve learned to be cautiously optimistic.”
Pick: Detroit Lions

Prediction Method 14: My Mother’s Pick Record: (0-0) / null%

“I need to get your first NFL pick of the year!”
“Ohhh, okay. Do I get to know the people that are playing tomorrow? The two teams?”
“It’s the Chicago Bears, in Detroit.”
“Oh my. I am gonna go with Detroit. Gotta start the year off positive. That’s it.”
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry H: Money, Meet Mouth

Prediction Method 15: OddsShark Forecast Record: (0-0) / null%

This week, OddsShark’s predicted score is 22.4-20.7 Chicago. That’s less than a field goal, which aligns with my own perception of each team. Either way, a narrow favorite is still a favorite.
Pick: Chicago Bears

Prediction Method 16: My Pick Record: (0-0) / null%

I may be too hopeful here. I can’t say for sure that the Lions are better this year, but they’re certainly different this year and I’m optimistic. I have my doubts about some things, like relying on a lot of youth, or carrying five RBs, but I genuinely think things have been put together enough for a 9-7 season.
I’m less confident in Chicago. I don’t see anything that’s going to immediately save an anemic offense (though they do always seem to step up their game against our own anemic defense and give us a sound thrashing). Their defense does scare me, though. I still don’t think it’s at 2018 levels, but I do think they could give trouble to any team in the NFL, and a lot of those teams are better than we are. That’s why, even though I’m giving the pick to Detroit, it’s close, and I don’t feel super confident in it. I would not at all be shocked by a Bears win today.
I will also say that this game is a bit of a bellwether for the rest of the Lions season. If Trubisky manhandles us like he’s done recently, and if our offense with “so many weapons” can’t function with an injured Golladay, then we don’t deserve to make the playoffs. I’ll still hope we do, don’t get me wrong, but if we manage to then it’ll be on the back of some rapid and impactful changes.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Unrivaled Methods

Prediction Method 17: A Literal Coin Flip Record: (0-0) / null%

It’s the first flip for this coin, and it comes up favoring the Bears. Stupid thing.
Pick: Chicago Bears

Prediction Method 18: Honolulu Blue Kool-Aid Record: (0-0) / null%

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? WE STILL OWN THE BEARS. FIVE OF THE LAST SIX GAMES DON’T COUNT. THE SUN WAS IN OUR EYES. IN BOTH DIRECTIONS. AND INDOORS FOR THE HOME GAMES. SHUT UP.
FINE, SO IT HASN’T GONE GREAT AGAINST CHICAGO LATELY, BUT NOW WE’VE GOT THEM FIGURED OUT. I’VE SOLVED IT. YOU KNOW HOW SOME PEOPLE THEORIZE THAT JAR-JAR BINKS WAS A SECRET SITH LORD PULLING ALL OF THE STRINGS THE WHOLE TIME? THAT’S TRUBISKY. HE IS A SECRET EVIL MASTERMIND. ALWAYS PLOTTING. ALWAYS WATCHING.
BUT NOW THAT WE KNOW THAT, HE HAS NO POWER. IT’S LIKE FIGURING OUT RUMPELSTILTSKIN’S REAL NAME. HE CAN’T HURT US ANYMORE.
PLEASE.
OH DEAR GOD PLEASE.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Summary

Raw Prediction: Detroit Lions (9 for Detroit Lions, 9 for Chicago Bears) Raw Prediction record: (0-0) / null%
Weighted Prediction: Detroit Lions (9.0 for Detroit Lions, 9.0 for Chicago Bears) Weighted Prediction record: (0-0) / null%
For Week 1, the weighted prediction is the same as the raw, because...well, nobody has any weights assigned to them yet. And since each team had 9 methods selecting it, these both default to the home team.
Exciting way to kick things off, though! The predictions couldn’t be closer, and I’m itching to get some football back into my life! Hope you all enjoy the game, and I’ll see you next week to review the results of today’s predictions and...ugh, predict Lions @ Packers. Gross.

Week 04 - Sunday, 04OCT2020, 1:00pm

Detroit Lions v New Orleans Saints

Lions fan, coming in peace! I'm writing an article series where I predict the outcomes of Lions games using several methods, some of them logical, and some kinda bonkers. It was well-received last year, so this year I thought I would share the fun with our opponents as well! I hope you enjoy.
What the heck? I was surprised. Were you surprised? I was surprised.
How in high heaven did Detroit manage to win that? I mean, it took a last-second-miracle legging by Prater (who is my Lion, as a reminder for those playing at home), but they pulled it off. This week is a matchup that could be even harsher, but maybe this means we’re turning a corner in this young season. Could the Lions overcome the odds two weeks in a row and topple an NFC team that is consistently near the top of the conference? Could they go into their early bye at (2-2) and shock everyone who thought they had them figured out when they were (0-2)? Maybe!
For details about the methodology for these prediction approaches or an explanation of any rivalries, please see here.

Rivalry A: 'Cause I Ain't No Quartaback Girl

Prediction Method 1: Higher QB Rating Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

If there’s one team you don’t want to be up against in a quarterback category, it’s...well, it’s the Green Bay Packers, for which I am eternally bitter. But if there was a second, it would be the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees is not a man that you want to have to square up against. On his best days, Matthew Stafford is capable, but this season does not appear to be leading up to that. Stafford’s QBR of 60.7 is only good for 19th in the league this season, so “latest” Stafford isn’t necessarily up to snuff with “greatest” Stafford. Brees, on the other hand, is sitting at 80.3, ranking 6th in the league.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 2: Higher Passer Rating Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Passer Rating disagreed with QBR last week, and that was to its benefit as it trusted Stafford over Kyler Murray (both of whom are on my fantasy team, go figure). This time around, however, the gravity of Drew Brees is too much to overcome, and the two ratings are back to agreeing. Stafford has a 93.7, ranking 19th, compared to Drew Brees’s 106.2 in 9th.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry B: As, Of Course, Is Tradition

Prediction Method 3: Better Turnover Differential Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Detroit was a surprise last week, managing 3 interceptions after 0 through the first pair of games. They weren’t able to capitalize on them very well, but WHO CARES that’s not what this prediction is about! It kind of assumes that you can make use of those turnovers, and if that’s to its detriment then it’s to its detriment. Point is, Detroit is at a +1 when you weigh those 3 INTs against 2 that they’ve thrown themselves.
The Saints, on the other hand, have taken 2 INTs and 2 fumbles, while giving up 1 of each. That works out to a +2, so they win this round regardless of whether or not Detroit can make a takeaway work.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 4: Average Points Per Game Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

New Orleans isn’t setting the world on fire this year, but they’re in the top third of the league in 10th with 29.3 points per game. Detroit, on the other hand, is in the bottom third, in 23rd with 23.3 points per game. It’s doesn’t sound like much at only one touchdown per game, but, really, “only” one touchdown per game is quite a lot if you could take it for granted. If it’s a shootout, this team is dangerous for Detroit.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry C: Every Now and Then

Prediction Method 5: Best 2019 Record Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Detroit’s (3-12-1) is a real albatross around their neck for this category. It’s going to be rare that they get this pick. This week is no exception, as the Saints led their division with an impressive (13-3) record.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 6: Best Team History Record Record: (3-0) / 100.0%

I was shocked by how far down the list the Saints were. I think of them as being a consistent force in the conference, and yet...
Detroit Lions: (563-672-33) / 45.7%
New Orleans Saints: (376-440-5) / 46.1%
...they only beat Detroit by one single position on the all-time “leaderboard”. Still, for total team histories, that's enough for precedent to favor New Orleans.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry D: Upper Management vs The Union

Prediction Method 7: More Experienced Coaching Staff Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Lions:

Matt Patricia: 2 years as a head coach Darrell Bevell: 14 years as an offensive coordinator Cory Undlin: 0 years as an defensive coordinator Brayden Coombs: 0 years as a special teams coordinator Total: 16 years

Bevell got years.
Saints:

Sean Payton: 14 years as a head coach Peter Carmichael Jr.: 11 years as an offensive coordinator* Dennis Allen: 6 years as an defensive coordinator Darren Rizzi: 8 years as a special teams coordinator* Total: 39 years

Sean Payton alone has as much experience as the entire Cardinals coaching staff did last week, and the lot of his crew crushes Detroit this week. This is by far the heaviest hitter for years on the job that we’ve seen this season.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 8: More NFL Top 100 Players Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Lions

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Saints

5) Michael Thomas, WR 12) Drew Brees, QB 23) Cameron Jordan, DE 42) Alvin Kamara, RB 67) Demario Davis, OLB 76) Marshon Lattimore, CB 82) Ryan Ramczyk, OT

I could have simply skipped this by quoting the article’s header, “The New Orleans Saints had the most selections with 7”. Quite frankly, though, I wanted to see all of those names written out. No sass, this is impressive. Especially so because, remember, this is voted on by players.
Of course, I must note that two of these players will be injured this week. No less impressive, but perhaps maybe (SLIGHTLY) less impactful for this prediction.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry E: It's Just A Game

Prediction Method 9: Madden 21 Simulation Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

The virtual Lions went into this week at (0-3), and they looked weak enough to continue that trend. At halftime, they were losing 7-0. They managed to pull to an even 14-14, but with 0:03 left in the game, they were back to losing at 21-17.
Did my phrasing leave it open to a miracle comeback? Yeah, no. Didn’t happen. These Lions are doing even worse than the real ones.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 10: Tecmo Super Bowl Simulation Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

Detroit started this one strong by...throwing an interception on the very first play of the game. Whoops. Things could have been worse, though, as New Orleans was only able to fire back with a field goal. Detroit gets back on track from their previous interception by marching downfield and...throwing an interception on the 5-yard line. What is going on, 8-bit Stafford?? Next, a pair of downright insane runs from Alvin Kamara get New Orleans into the redzone. Passes are ineffective, but one more run play gets the Saints into the endzone for the first time. Detroit is forced to punt on their next possession, and this time around Drew Brees is on his game. A few impressive passes put Alvin Kamara in position to score again. Getting the ball back, the Lions offense finally finds its legs...but with time running out in the first half, they're forced to give up on a touchdown and rely on a single leg as Prater splits the uprights.
17-3 Saints at the half.
New Orleans starts the 3rd with the ball, but the turnovers begin to balance as a long reception ends in a fumble that Detroit seizes. Then the turnovers begin to laugh in our faces as a Detroit fumble very nearly becomes a New Orleans touchdown. Like, VERY VERY NEARLY. Look at that. Two broken tackles, and that's where we finally stop the guy. Unfortunately, against this offense, that merely delays the inevitable. One play later, the score ticks upward once more. The teams continue to play hot potato instead of football, with turnovers bringing the ball back to the Saints and back back to the Lions. Unfortunately, the opportunity that this presents to Detroit is wasted, as an incomplete pass is followed by three sacks in a row, giving New Orleans the ball with a short field. Surprising absolutely none of you, this turns into even more points with a single long pass that's caught in the endzone. At this point I'm beyond ready for this game to be over, but we still have most of the 4th quarter left. Detroit finally finally finally manages to put up 6, but it merely feels insulting to me as a viewer. This one is long gone, boys. My only proper solace is that Marvin Jones got "vgeta" to start his image URL.
Detroit's onside kick doesn't work, and is returned all the way to the 5-yard line, at which point Alvin Kamara spits in our drink with 0:00 left on the clock, just for good measure.
Final score, 38-10 Saints.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry F: Going To The Dogs

Prediction Method 11: Fen's Pick Record: (0-3) / 0.0%

Fen is really struggling this year, and she’s the competitive sort, so you can bet that she’s making her absolute best choices by now, in order to finally get on the board. This week, that choice is Detroit, so she has true faith.
Best of luck, puppy girl.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Prediction Method 12: Elena's Pick Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

Unlike Fen (and probably to Fen’s great irritation), Elena isn’t taking this very seriously yet is happily cruising along with a solid record. She’s just excited to be participating. We’ll see if that excitement allows her to continue dominating this rivalry, as she chose against her big sister. I will say that, for some reason, she picked up both treats and put them in the middle before eating them. Maybe she expects another close game like Detroit had last week?
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Rivalry G: This Was A Terrible Idea

Prediction Method 13: My Wife's Pick Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

“So who do you think is going to win this week?”
“Who are we playing?”
“This week is the Saints. In Detroit.”
“I am not convinced that our win last week wasn’t a complete fluke, and also the Saints are wayyy better than us. So...I’m going to say the Saints. I refuse to get my hopes up.”
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 14: My Mother’s Pick Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

“Lions! Saints! Who wins?”
“Lions and...who?”
“The Saints.”
“The Saints. Where are the Saints from?”
“They are from New Orleans.”
“Umm...well...I don’t know their record, and Detroit lost...zero...one...I’m gonna go with Detroit. I’m thinking that maybe since they won last week, that’ll give them the drive to go two in a row.”
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry H: Money, Meet Mouth

Prediction Method 15: OddsShark Forecast Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

While the average points per game are exactly one touchdown apart, OddsShark is willing to go out a tiny bit farther than that on this limb. Their predicted score is 28.2 - 21.9 Saints. It’s only 0.3 points more than that one touchdown, but it’s always deliberate with oddsmakers.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 16: My Pick Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

Detroit is in pretty good shape this week. We’re coming off of a win that nobody expected, a win that came on the back of some players returning from injury and some honest-to-real adaptability and growth in the playcalling. Pile that onto some very, very key Saints injuries, and seldom before has an upset looked less upsetting. Or not upsetting at all. Whatever. It’s wordplay, shut up.
And yet, I find myself unconvinced. Even after last week, I am still a Quinntricia 2020 skeptic. I am skeptical of the moment-to-moment decision-making during games. I am skeptical of gameday personnel decisions. I am skeptical of the playcalling, and dammit, despite the willingness to use more zone coverage last week, I am skeptical as hell about this defense.
So in the end, I’m torn. I think Detroit is in a good position to pull this off, and I won’t be stunned if they do (though no small amount of that falls on the Saints being in an unusually weak position this week). I don’t expect them to, though, and I just can’t be comfortable making that call. I hope I’m wrong.
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Unrivaled Methods

Prediction Method 17: A Literal Coin Flip Record: (2-1) / 66.7%

The coin was guaranteed to stray from its 50-50 split last week, but it shocked us by the way in which it did so (that is, successfully picking the Lions to win). This week it opts to pick the Saints. The real question is: Is this a genuine pick, or is the sentient coin deliberately making the wrong choice in order to get back to 50-50?
Pick: New Orleans Saints

Prediction Method 18: Honolulu Blue Kool-Aid Record: (1-2) / 33.3%

IF YOU BELIEVE SAINTS FANS, THE SAINTS MAY BE THE ONLY TEAM THAT THE NFL HATES MORE THAN DETROIT. SO YOU KNOW WHAT? LET’S TAKE THEM AT THEIR WORD. PUT THAT ENERGY OUT INTO THE UNIVERSE AND MAKE IT REALITY.
IT’S OUR REALITY NOW.
IF THERE IS EVER A TIME FOR US TO CASH IN ON THE GOOD FEELINGS OF WATCHING AN OFFICIATING TEAM HAMSTRING YOUR OPPONENT, THAT TIME IS NOW. ONE OF US WILL PROBABLY GET TO ENJOY THAT SENSATION THIS WEEK. I POSIT THAT IT IS DETROIT, BECAUSE FUCK YOU THAT’S WHY.
END OF SEGMENT.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Summary

Raw Prediction: New Orleans Saints (3 for Detroit Lions, 15 for New Orleans Saints) Raw Prediction record: (1-2) / 33.3%
Weighted Prediction: New Orleans Saints (1.0 for Detroit Lions, 8.7 for New Orleans Saints) Weighted Prediction record: (1-2) / 33.3%
So it turns out that the win last week didn’t really move the needle here. Both the Raw and Weighted Predictions are in agreement, again, that Detroit won’t be celebrating Victory Monday. In fact, they feel even stronger about it this week than they did last week. They were indeed wrong last week, though (as was I, and I would wager many of you), so don’t lose all hope if you’re in the Honolulu Blue corner. Just...be wary, eh?

Hey, everyone! It's your favorite robit ("favorite" in this case being defined as "something you probably didn't remember and/or didn't like"), here to predict the next season of Detroit Lions football!!
Last season, I attempted to predict the outcome of Lions games using 12 different methods, ranging from logical to inane. I had to abandon the article series before the end of the season due to other priorities. In other words, I had wedding planning to do and this just wasn't as important. For the record, the wedding was fantastic, with mistletoe, a hot chocolate buffet, and a dream team jazz quartet of musicians that I greatly respect.
This year, I'm stepping things up a bit. For one thing, I'm up to 18 prediction methods. Beyond that, some of the newcomers stem from questions I was asking last year, such as, "this QB Rating is an ESPN metric...I wonder how it compares to the NFL's own Passer Rating". As such, 16 of the 18 methods are paired off into direct rivalries! We'll still see who the best overall predictors are by the end of the year, but now each of those 16 has a more direct point of comparison as well. The two methods without a rival are Honolulu Blue Kool-Aid and A Literal Coin Flip, which will be up against everybody. And remember, there are two final picks at the end of each article! One for whichever team has the most picks, and one for the team with the most weighted picks, with weights assigned based on the method's performance so far (1 × [# correct predictions / # total predictions]).
I also plan to submit these posts to the subreddit of each game's opponent this year (as subreddit rules allow, anyway). I'd also thought about submitting to /nfl, but they've got a dense rulebook that appears to disallow this sort of content (or perhaps only allow it with prior approval that I do not have). Maybe I'll link to it in the comments of their game threads. Their comment rules are a lot lighter.
Sadly, this year we wave goodbye to Smash Bros Ultimate Mascot Fight. For one thing, I couldn't find a suitable rival for it, nor did it make sense to have it on its own. However, the larger reason is that, while it was a lot of fun to create the mascot Mii fighters, the writeups never came out sounding very interesting. It got a bit dull to just write down the order of stock losses each week, ya dig? To make that method more interesting, it would really deserve a video with accompanying commentary audio track, and I'm just not up for making one prediction method that much more labor-intensive.
Now, finally, let's actually get into the methodology of each pick!

Rivalry A: 'Cause I Ain't No Quartaback Girl

Rivalry Basis: Nobody can deny the impact of a good quarterback. It won’t save a garbage roster, but a strong player under center can elevate a bad team to modest success, and a good team to greatness. On the other hand, a bad quarterback can drag down the entire team, such is the position’s importance.

Prediction Method 1: Higher QB Rating

Why: I could simply decide on my own which quarterback I think is better. That's not subjective enough for this highly scientific and rational exercise, however. Therefore, I will use ESPN's QB Rating as a metric for, well, Rating each teams Quarterback.
How: I’ll be comparing the regular season QB Rating for each team’s starting quarterback, as posted on ESPN's website. I will use the current season rating as of the time of the writeup each week. For Week 1, I will compare QB Ratings from the 2019 regular season. In the unlikely event that both starters share a rating, this method will favor the home team.

Prediction Method 2: Higher Passer Rating

Why: I could simply decide on my own which quarterback I think is better. That's not subjective enough for this highly scientific and rational exercise, however. Therefore, I will use the NFL's Passer Rating as a metric for, well, Rating each teams Passer.
How: Last year's QB Rating predictions have invited a challenger from the greater NFL body itself. I will compare the Passer Rating of each team's starting quarterback, with the higher rating getting the prediction nod. As with the QB Rating, I'll take the Passer Rating as of that point in the season, using the 2019 regular season for Week 1. If each Passer Rating is the same, this method will favor the home team. I will source this data from...ESPN's website? Let's see if ESPN's data availability engineers their own downfall against their NFL rival.

Rivalry B: As, Of Course, Is Tradition

Rivalry Basis: There are some things that we're simply always told "win football games". I've decided to put a couple of these to the test here. Which is better? Are either good? Let's find out!

Prediction Method 3: Better Turnover Differential

Why: We’ve all heard it. “Turnovers win/cost games!” It’s a tired line, but there’s likely some truth to it; I want to see how well it holds water for detecting a winner in advance.
How: I’ll contrast each team’s regular season turnover differential as reported by The Football Database, current to the week of the writeup. The higher differential (that is, more takeaways and fewer giveaways) gets the pick. For Week 1, I will compare turnover differentials from the 2019 regular season. If both teams have the same differential, this method will favor the home team.

Prediction Method 4: Average Points Per Game

Why: Ahh, that good old John Madden crumb of wisdom. What you really want to do is score more points than the other team, and then you'll win your football game. Store dat away for a rainy day.
How: Pretty simple on this one. Average out the points per game of each team up to that point in the season. As is typical, for Week 1 I'll be using the average points per game of the entire 2019 regular season.

Rivalry C: Every Now and Then

Rivalry Basis: What's more important, current quality or true legacy? Wait, why are you waiting for me to tell you? I certainly don't know. That's why I was asking you!

Prediction Method 5: Best 2019 Record

Why: There are circumstances where a good team unexpectedly tanks, or a bad team becomes shockingly good in a short span of time. That isn’t the norm, though. In general, a team performs at least similarly to how they did the previous season.
How: I’ll be putting each team’s record from the 2019 season up against one another. I don't expect this one to swing for Detroit very often - the Lions went 3-12-1. If Detroit is up against another team with the same record, this method will favor the home team.

Prediction Method 6: Best Team History Record

Why: Then again, there's something to be said for legacy. Even in bad droughts of success, there are some teams that are just always expected to have a chance at contending. Could it be that a team's history is able to give an ailing squad the push they need, or help a robust unit keep themselves on track?
How: I'll measure this with each team's regular season win/loss percentage across that team's entire record, including 2020 as it happens. A tied percentage will favor the home team.

Rivalry D: Upper Management vs The Union

Rivalry Basis: Coaches run games, but it's the star players who really turn heads. I'd like to see which ends up proving more important.

Prediction Method 7: More Experienced Coaching Staff

Why: I feel the need to justify this one a little. I could have gone with a coaching win/loss record or something, but I was finding it tricky to reconcile each member of a coaching staff having coached a different number of games. Beyond that, I like this better as a predictor anyway. After all, bad coaches don't stay in their positions for very long, so an experienced staff should also indicate a decent staff, yeah?
How: I'll be adding up the number of years that each member of each coaching staff (head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, special teams coordinator) has been in that position in the NFL. Not necessarily with that particular team, but, for example, I'll only be counting Matt Patricia's years as a head coach. I won't consider his position coaching or coordinator history, because "head coach" is the level of responsibility he has for determining game outcomes this season. I don't want to allow the Peter principle to warp any ratings based on that coach having been really good at their previous job. In the event of a tie, the pick goes to the home team.

Prediction Method 8: More NFL Top 100 Players

Why: There are loads of ways to determine which football players are better than others, but if it was easy, we wouldn't still have playground debates about it. In light of that, I'd rather trust the players themselves.
How: Conveniently enough, the NFL's players vote in an offseason poll covering just this subject. Even more conveniently, the poll only includes voting on players who will not be retired for the coming season, so I don't have to worry about some retiring legend who isn't actually relevant for this test bumping people off the bottom of the list that would be relevant. If the count is equal, the home team is favored.

Rivalry E: It's Just A Game

Rivalry Basis: This one was already a rivalry of sorts last year. Which produces better simulations...state of the art physics engines animation sequences, or rudimentary programming from 1991? I'd like to continue this debate this year.

Prediction Method 9: Madden 19 21 Simulation

Why: EA has a massive budget, and they put out a product featuring the full NFL roster. That said, there are several questions raised as to how much effort actually goes into these games (including but not limited to the actual in-game proceedings). For a studio with “Arts” in the name, it is definitely run as a business first, artful developer second. I want to see if their simulations of the teams have any legitimacy.
How: Using Madden 19 with its most up-to-date roster patch available, I will run a CPU-controlled exhibition game featuring Detroit and their opponent. Settings will be adjusted to Simulation mode, with the default 6-minute quarters. Winner earns this pick. A rare tie would favor the home team. I'm using Madden 19 because it's the first Madden game that I'd bought in years, and you're unhinged if you think I'm giving EA any more money until they make a substantial update. Scratch that, Pride of Detroit is simulating the game each week in Madden 21 so I can use that for a more up-to-date simulation basis

Prediction Method 10: Tecmo Super Bowl Simulation

Why: Would you believe that there are people that update the teams and rosters in ROMs of Tecmo Super Bowl every year to keep them current? It’s honestly pretty awesome. I’d like to see how good of a job these 8-bit simulations do with their modern rosters.
How: Last year I used Goji's NFL Tecmo Super Bowl LIV Week 1 (v10, Juiced Plus) for this. Unfortunately, the website that hosted all of this appears to have shut its door in late July of 2020. Its community is a bit scattered at the moment, but I've found Tecmonster's Tecmo Super Bowl among the pieces. I will use this ROM to run a CPU-controlled exhibition game mirroring the week’s matchup. Winner gets the pick. Note that this is Tecmo Super Bowl, not Tecmo Bowl. Tecmo Super Bowl is superior across the board, don’t @ me.

Rivalry F: Going To The Dogs

Prediction Method 11: Fen's Pick

Why: This is our dog, Fenchurch. She is adorable, silly, and incredibly affectionate and loving. She may also have phenomenal cosmic powers, given to her by the universe as a reward for existing as such a pure being. These powers may or may not include psychic divinations of the future.
How: Before each game, I will set out two treats (broken in half because the little turd is too impatient to chew her food). Each will be the same flavor, and placed in front of a note card with the name of a competing team written on it. The away team will go on the left, the home team on the right. Fen will be held a short distance away, equidistant from each treat, with both of them directly in her field of vision. Whichever treat Fen decides to eat first receives the pick. Then she gets to eat the other treat as well for being the goodest girl and being such a big help.

Prediction Method 12: Elena's Pick

Why: OH GOSH YOU GUYS FEN HAS A SISTER NOW. Elena's favorite thing is the world is Fen. Fen's favorite thing in the world is time away from her incredibly energetic sister Elena. Could Elena annoy Fen even more by usurping her? Or will she defer to her favorite sibling and allow Fen to continue being the psychic pet? Only time (and treats) will tell.
How: Same as with Fen, just with a different doggo. And Elena is simultaneously the goodest girl, and yes they can coexist as such thank-you-very-much.

Rivalry G: This Was A Terrible Idea

Rivalry Basis: Put simply, this is my wife vs my mother. Despite they jokey name of this rivalry, they actually get along great! One of the things they have in common is that they don't follow any of the minutiae of football, so they're on pretty even footing here.

Prediction Method 13: My Wife's Pick

Why: My wife knows a bit about football. More than my mom, certainly; she's even in our fantasy football league. But unless she does some research specifically for these picks (which would be allowed for either her or my mom), her knowledge is mostly rooted in broad-stroke stuff or what she happens to hear me ranting about. She won't typically have insight into which team has an injured receiver or is on a backslide or is really close to taking the lead in their division. So while she's a very real fan, she's a high-level fan who just has fun watching football.
How: I ask her who she thinks is going to win. What did you expect?

Prediction Method 14: My Mother’s Pick

Why: My mom knows next to nothing about football. When we yell at the screen, she just asks which color jersey we’re supporting, and then roots for them too. If she can call these correctly, or at least better than the competing methods, she may be a savant of some kind.
How: In the week leading up to each game, I’m going to call (or text if necessary) my mother and ask who she thinks is going to win. That’s all there is to it.

Rivalry H: Money, Meet Mouth

Rivalry Basis: Time to put my own credibility on the line. We're bumping up my own opinions against those of the experts!

Prediction Method 15: OddsShark Forecast

Why: People take things seriously when there’s money on the line, and nowhere is more money on the line than in Vegas. Institutions that are hosting sports bets want their predicted outcomes to be as good as possible, so that the odds that they give reflect reality as best they can.
How: Rather than trying to shift gears and pick some bookie off of a random list of which I know nothing, I'm going to stay the course from last year. Therefore, I’ll be looking to OddsShark for their anticipated score (and by extension, winner).

Prediction Method 16: My Pick

Why: I want to see how I stack up. Despite my best efforts, I am by all accounts an amateur. I want to try my hand at this fight, and see how well I can hold my own.
How: Before each game, I will simply use my best judgment of all known factors to write my thoughts about the outcome that I expect. I’ll try to be as objective as I can in my assessment, which means I’ll probably just agonize over how it feels like I’ve picked the Lions too often.

Unrivaled Methods

Prediction Method 17: A Literal Coin Flip

Why No Rivalry: Consider this a control. If any other methods fall below an unbiased random guess, then maybe they aren’t worth putting any faith in.
Why: A coin is unbiased, and I certainly don't know how to choose the outcome of a flip. True randomness.
How: I will be using a Highland Mint NFL 100th anniversary Detroit Lions coin. I will flip it, catch it, open my palm, and set it down on the coffee table without turning it. Lions side chooses Detroit, NFL side chooses Detroit's opponent.

Prediction Method 18: Honolulu Blue Kool-Aid

Why No Rivalry: BECAUSE IT'S DETROIT VS EVERYBODY, BABY
Why: FUCK YOU
How: I DON’T GIVE HALF A DAMN WHAT YOU THINK, DETROIT IS THE BEST GODDAMN TEAM IN THE GODDAMN NFL. I’M GOING TO CHOOSE THEM TO WIN EVERY GAME THEY’RE IN BECAUSE YOU’D BE A WEAPONS-GRADE DIPSHIT TO PICK AGAINST THEM. WHO THE FUCK THINKS THEY’RE BEATING US?? BRING YOUR BEST PEOPLE, I DON’T GIVE A SHIT. MATTHEW STAFFORD, KENNY GOLLADAY, AND THE MASTERFUL MATT PRATER. THOSE THREE GUYS COULD TAKE ON YOUR ENTIRE TEAM WITHOUT FLINCHING, AND WE’VE GOT MORE WHERE THAT CAME FROM.
DETROIT WINS. KISS MY DICK.

And there we have it. We're ready to roll for the 2019-20 season. Expect my posts on gameday morning. It's football time, people!